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Mastertheart

Professional view of Bitcoin's HistoryI have posted countless posts about Bitcoin, shared educational content many steps of the way. To understand the logic and trade your next big opportunity, you need to have a good feel as to where it has been. More importantly, why it has been there. So, let's start off with the why. I am one of the lucky ones, I first got introduced to Bitcoin in 2011 - just happened to be in the fintech space and a long time FX/Stock trader. When I first saw Bitcoin I knew it was interesting, but had no concept of the scale or the possibilities. Fast foreword a few years I started unloading throughout it's first real Bull run. Why? Well, as a trader I wasn't looking for lottery wins, looking more for good returns on the investment. (I wish I knew, what next) Don't get me wrong, it was an awesome run and ended up one happy chappy, but at this stage in Bitcoin's life it was too early to "trade" - this was more an investment vehicle. As the price rallied, my other hat was hearing other VC's and Angels talk about Bitcoin but with a kind of scepticism, yet a fear of missing out. The issue is, Venture Capitalists are more about wealth preservation than wealth creation. You could write a book on this topic! What I was seeing, is the VC's would look at other Blockchain based investments and make their decisions based on a simple ' is Bitcoin up or down ' After the drop late 17 into early 18, there seemed to be a different vibe in the family office, LP, more institutional investors. This vibe was one that kinda said "if it survived the pummeling, maybe it's safer than we expected". Now, if you think VC's are all about wealth preservation, the LP's (Limited Partners) in essence the money behind the VC's, as well as other types of investments. These guys are another level, it's all about longevity, long term strategies, these are not trading moves up and down this is a long term play with a tiny amount of their pie. (which is often still in the Billions). It wasn't until we got to this point, that as a trader more than a Tech investor - Bitcoin become interesting. I shared a post at the time explaining why it was interesting, this was called "Re-accumulation" You can click this post and go through to see it in detail. It was due to this playing out to the penny, the next stage become obvious. You see, many retail traders assume one thing when it comes to investing like this. That is Big players come in and price goes up. So many jump in, this is the liquidity for these bigger players to cash out. Like I said, as a professional I am not looking to invest $1,000 to make $10 Million. We are looking at 10x, 20x bank it. Go again... Knowing what was on the cards based on the level of re-accumulation just below and of course a factor of 10x from the lower region accumulation. You guessed it - DISTRIBUTION I shared a post titled "They Blew up the rocket" These levels are pre determined, on the @TradingView show with Stefan, I discussed Composite Man and the fact the market is an Algorithm, seeking liquidity. www.tradingview.com We then fall down to this area of liquidity which as you can see above, can easily be mapped out in advance. Now in this zone, you could see a real ugly move up - this give off the hint that the market was testing the water, checking to see what levels are interesting to various participants. As we rallied away from this zone, it quickly became apparent that the new top level had been programmed. Zoom in to read the text here. So, why was it only going to poke above the old all time high? Liquidity... Then Where? well, down of course. Here you will see we started changing the character and the next obvious move was on the table. Again, pre-programmed in. I shared in advance the logic here as to why it will grind up and fall through. These things are not difficult to understand, yet retail traders mostly have the memory of a gold fish. Levels are not set in stone, you don't get a break and it's done. the change of character is trying to tell a story. It's giving the clues. I've shared every single major move here with you on TradingView. Now what? You have a much, much larger accumulation move in the works. NOT SO FAST! One slight caveat. We are early, it's not done yet. Your local influencers, fake guru's and the social media universe all want one thing! BTC to go up. Blackrock's ETF - you think they will come in to make retail traders rich? Go back and read the start of this post again. Retail is the liquidity for us professionals. This phase is a very, very big one. On a 15 minute Timeframe every $100 will look massive. You really need to learn the logic behind such moves.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
Chat GPT indicator research I recently shared a video post about using "Chat GPT" to create custom pinescript indicators. In the video, I just showed the potential for starting your journey off! Here's an updated view of the very indicator I had Chat GPT build in the video. This got me thinking as to the possibilities, so I made a start on a new indicator. One for looking at "footprint trading" a technique I used to use a lot earlier in my career, in essence it's all to do with volume profiles. Starting off I looked at ways to find key value areas using a type of periodic view of volume and then wanted to test momentum at these levels. I asked chat GPT for a couple of different variations and got a little stuck on the complexity. (not being a coder n all) So I asked for a little help from a friend @peterhammer, who I now call Chat GPT 5.0. He added and tweaked, enhanced the overall idea. So starting with periodic profile. This helps spot local key areas as highlighted here... As we move into a range - we can see the volume momentum clearly highlighted here. This has been a fun first project with the aid of Chat GPT for sure! More to follow!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
3
Easy Bitcoin, easier than you think. Don't get excited! It's not just yet. But the fact it's become institutionalised, means it's so much easier to follow it's bias. Back at the end of 2021; this chart was popular amongst Crypto fans. The only issue is, it had ZERO logic backing it up. When a trend is established, it needs to re-generate to grow again. A second wind as such. Look how ridiculous this looks on a regular chart not log scale. You see, at the end of a major rally - you would expect the price to be above moving averages. This is logical, price moves up and up and up. Guess where the moving average follows? It's an average that moves , hint in it's title. ;-) Instead of giving a bias with extension levels - tapping liquidity for it's breather. Here's a link to the post. This is the outcome. Inside these moves, is clearly defined logic. They become obvious later on, but prior to the event. Just as easy to spot to be honest. You just need a little time to learn the process. The next obvious move has just tipped it's hat. Patience is key. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Average Joe - Bitcoin anyone? I recently published a post about the "Wall Street cheat sheet" You can see this play out even over the smaller TF's per Elliott wave cycle. It's all to do with the market sentiment and traders psychology. Us humans, try and find patterns in everything. Whales in the clouds, levels on the charts, even faces in coffee. What you have to appreciate is why these emerge, there's no voodoo or mythical reasoning behind such things. It's often just humans trying to make sense of something the brain fails to understand. I have put together several posts over the last 18 months, some to do with calls up and down, back up again and then down. But that's not the point, the real value is for traders to come to these conclusions on their own. Many of my educational posts can be found throughout my profile here on Tradingview. Some of relevance - The Simpsons one, was all about this Wall Street cheat sheet and digging a little deeper into the emotions. I also talked about why the masses have come to crypto; When you start to piece this together, you will quickly realise - that the larger operators in the market, simply understand the psychology which is driven by retail sentiment. This particular post was all about why I was calling the rocket call - whilst the majority wanted it to be re-accumulation, there was some obvious signs showing distribution had began. Ask yourself this, when the big boys sell - who are they selling to? Well retail mostly, when the big boys buy - again, who do they buy from? well retail mostly. These patterns are nothing but humans being human. They won't change much, even being over 100 years old. Humans haven't changed much in 100 years. You can see these cycles play out, every step of the way - you can and some will say in the comments "your wrong, we are at this stage or another" Your missing the point, I am not trying to pick bottoms or tops with this post; I'm merely educating the masses as to why these things exist. Take a look at the rally up in Bitcoin's early life; This was the tech kids, the true believers and not until prices hit over 1k did you see many VC's or larger scale "tech investors" join the ride. (NOT TRADERS or TRADING INSTITUTES) not at this stage, the drop down is where the big boys played accumulation to perfection. This came just after, every man and his dog had heard about Bitcoin from the postman or in the local pub-bar. Of course as it happened - jumped in at the local top, got angry and annoyed. Sold off what was left to - you guessed it, the big boys accumulating! As the rally played out, retail seem to always want "NO RISK" so they end up buying when the price is rising. Now it was more widespread, all over social media! We saw influencers call 130K, $250k, a MILLION dollars and even 3 Million dollars! buying it above 45k made sense to many who either did not understand or unwilling to learn. Many went for it, leaving the bags red for an extended period of time. To make it worse, the larger operators can afford to sit and wait, wait and wait some more. Retail will leave due to fear, take losses as every day they switch on the computer - the account is negative. People have literally gone all in on this and in some cases - buying the top! The longer the low ball phase goes on, the more uncertainty it will cause. Fear of this going lower will eat away, especially for those carrying heavy losses. (I've heard people say things like "it's only a loss if you sell") All people want is for the pain to be over and for this to hit all time highs. At the moment, people are questioning crypto - regulators are edging closer - especially after the whole FTX saga. The crowd cries "banks are bad, governments steal" the issue is banks are regulated to ensure low fees and options to return stolen funds. In an unregulated market - some will get burnt! Now, don't get me wrong - I'm not one for governments or banks. But crypto needs to establish a good regulatory footing for it's value to be realised properly. Until then we are likely going to see us sat somewhere in-between denial and depression on our Wall Street cheat sheet. Have a great week all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
The Ultimate Guide To BITCOINI have thought long and hard about posting this particular post. I have shared similar posts over the last year, but never put all of the pieces together for a walkthrough on how Bitcoin has done EXACTLY as expected, institutional players have asserted their authority. The misconception for majority of retail traders is, big boys in equals price going up. What they have failed to consider, is the big boys are professional money makers. Wanting to make money from regular retail traders who have no clue and in an unregulated market, it's child's play. Take a look at the post chronology, all available on @TradingView all immutable. You need to understand why the emotional sentiment makes the chart move the way it does. You see back in 2020 I started making some of the crypto plays public, I have been fortunate enough to have been in and around crypto a very long time both on the tech side as well as being a professional trader. Here's how the Wall Street Cheat Sheet shaped this last couple of moves. From here we were clearly at a point whereby most people still didn't truly get it, toes were getting dipped in the water and the fireworks about to pop. Early in 2021; there where clear signs of a re-accumulation as the OPTIMISM phase sunk in. As price rallied up and more and more retail started to cotton on to what Bitcoin and crypto could be - we arrived at the first phase of true adoption, Venture Capitalist's got in early based on technology - Private Equity and Hedge Funds started to show interest across the industry. However, like I mentioned above - big boys in doesn't equate to prices going up indefinitely. It usually means they want to make money, to do this they require an accumulation phase of their own. Hence, after a excitement and we started seeing Bitcoin THRILLS it was clear the time was pretty much up. The blew up a rocket post got a lot of attention; people didn't want the run to end, didn't want to believe the calls for a top. But the writing was on the wall. As many retail traders piled in - often following bad advice. The professionals where simply selling to dumb money. It was clear to see that institutional money was applying institutional strategies. Things like Wyckoff I posted about in February (again, received negatively) "This is Accumulation" they said... But take a look at the perfect - even textbook Wyckoff schematic from the top. The moves were defined, the target levels achieved and clear indication of who was driving. Liquidity pools below; I had a few technical difficulties trying to stream around this time on TradingView - but recorded an idea instead, this explaining the logic now for the move that was inbound. Although we had a very ugly Elliott wave 4 down on the weekly, it had started to correct itself as we tagged the 3rd wave of the 5th up. You could now start to calculate the next top - where and why. Again, pretty obvious. In this image above the post in August last year explained the levels of liquidity up above the old all time high and why we would quickly tumble from the new all time high. I posted a few educational post around this time, trying to get people to see where we sat, why we were likely to not tag one hundred thousand plus at this point in time. Keep in mind the wall street cheat sheet, has mini versions of the same process inside the larger cycle... Blue sky levels could now be defined - see the dates of these posts; same post but highlighting the levels And the outcome; When you look back at all of the above, it's easy to understand why the drop from the all time high, would be no different from the strategy and moves prior. This allowed for obvious steps and stages on the way down. Again, I pointed this out with some Tradingview education. Post the line break we would likely see a run on liquidity before the price continued down, knowing the smaller cycles are playing out within the larger - guess what we would do? Up to grab new buyers before a continuation on down. As we waved goodbye to the panic drop below the Elliott Wave invalidation levels of the previous (1) - a lot of anger set in. The large players in the game, now want to do a couple of things - they want to sell off early buys for Christmas bonuses and of course, re-accumulate new positions. As retail move into depression - after all, your local influencer told you $1million a Bitcoin 2022. It's actually been a fun ride. If you want to see more, don't forget to follow - all links are in the bio! Have a good one!!! Trade safe. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
17
Chasing DXY - S&P, BTC, XRP DXY is becoming interesting, with the global views of recession. What's happening in Ukraine, will we see another Covid round? Many traders don't know which way to turn. DXY is a good indicator for majority of the markets - after all, most commodities purchased globally are done with USD. Keep an eye on the following move as this will trigger the SPX rally, Bitcoins 5th wave and many, many more. Here's a look out on the monthly view; Stepped down to the weekly; And finally, the daily. If your keen on crypto - watching DXY do it's dance is definitely useful. Take a look at the images in this post from a couple of weeks back, you can see how these levels also effect Bitcoin. Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXY
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Why is trading so emotional? In August last year, I published an educational post around Fibonacci. There's also thousands of articles and books available on the topic. But how does it fit with being emotional? Often people talk about Algos, smart money concepts and a load of other terms. All trying to make sense of the market, Fibonacci isn't magical or mystical. It's a set of simple numbers that work - due to humans wanting to see patterns in everything they look at. Here's the article from last year - feel free to click it and go through that one as well. The issue I have when educating people - is there is always a desire to find an automated solution. I keep saying, if algos are that good - we wouldn't have school, doctors or firemen; they would all be sipping cocktails on a beach far away! If you want to learn technical analysis, you really need to dig deep into the emotional analysis. People like Dow, Elliott and Wyckoff (for me, are not technical gurus) they merely understood - human psychology made waves, changed sentiment - the bigger players in the markets know this. It's why most news outlets and websites around TA push writers who only talk MA's and RSI's. It keeps fresh sheep on track. The market is all about liquidity - these levels are created at psychological levels & from there, it's copy, paste, repeat. Take a look at this on the current Bitcoin move down from the All Time High. Swing 1 = 618 of A-B Swing 2 = 100% of the A-B Swing 3 = 100% of the A-B Swing 4 = 618 of the A-B Swing 5 = 1.23 range and 1.27 range of the A-B Then even when you step down a level you can see the move inside the moves looking similar. Local support is 618... When I started posting on @TradingView publicly - I explained why we where seeing value areas and re-accumulation for the first times. These levels were starting to show signs of the crypto space being institutionalised. This is important to understand, as much like Fibonacci levels, the price would now act in a different way to psychological levels. In stepped Wyckoff and you could see from before and after - where and why the price would go. Before Here's the AFTER shot. Lucky Guess? Well - maybe on the way back from the 28k levels highlighted in March, the very same fibs became obvious. If we where seeing Elliott waves form you could therefor measure the fib extensions. This was August the 24th - read the comments as to why the drop was coming (4 move) and why we would likely see the drop just above the old all time high. By October we had seen the forecasted extension levels getting hit - a retest followed this and we dropped. So, like I said - there's nothing magical, it's all about sentiment and psychology. Learn this and you will progress as a trader. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
31