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Mastertheartoftrading

Mastertheartoftrading

Bitcoin Smart money part 1 Here is a little post on why the SMC ideas are part of the bigger picture - I wasn't sure if these new video ideas are capped to 15minutes. Sure I read that somewhere. I'll do another video in the next few days either way. For now I think we are still busy going NOT FAR. Link to other post; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

14:40

by Mayfair_Ventures

The Parallels of Trading and Golf As both a Professional trader, but amateur golfer. recently tried to explain to someone the similarities, especially in the emotional side of golf and trading. I thought it might make an interesting article. Golf, much like trading, is a sophisticated blend of skill, strategy, and psychology. While trading involves navigating financial markets, golf requires skilful manoeuvring across challenging terrains. Both activities demand a strategic mindset, the ability to adapt, and the resilience to handle emotional highs and lows. The Right Club for the shot In golf, a player selects from a variety of clubs, each designed for a specific type of shot and distance. In trading, an investor uses different strategies tailored to particular instruments and timeframes. Just as a golfer wouldn’t use a driver for a close-range putt, a trader shouldn’t apply a long-term investment strategy on a 1-minute timeframe. The key is understanding which tools to utilise for the setup, whether it’s choosing a wedge to escape a bunker or a driver to blast the ball down the fairway. Different Scenarios Golf courses are full of diverse challenges, from long par 5s to intricate par 3s as well as those horrible 4s too long to drive, yet technical. A golfer must adapt their approach to the difficulty of each hole, just as a trader must respond to different market conditions. A poor shot on a par 5 might still recover with subsequent careful play, similar to how traders can bounce back from a loss with well-planned actions in subsequent trades. Success in both fields relies on adapting to circumstances while focusing on the overall objective. Remember there are 18 pins on a golf course, one bad shot doesn’t cripple the account (I mean, doesn’t end the game). Managing Emotions Golf is notorious for inducing a wide range of emotions, from the frustration of a missed putt to the euphoria of a perfect drive. Trading elicits similar emotional responses; the thrill of a profitable trade contrasts sharply with the despair of a loss. You ever notice that you take profits early and let losses run too long? Yup; not wanting the ball in the woods is the same, yet we still reach for the driver. Both golfers and traders must manage their emotions effectively to maintain focus and make rational decisions. Emotional discipline is vital; letting emotions dictate actions often leads to mistakes, whether it's over-swinging in frustration or impulsively buying or selling a stock. Risk management in either scenario. Learning and Improving Professional golfers continuously work to refine their swings and improve their game. Similarly, traders must commit to ongoing education and self-improvement. Doctors or lawyers don’t become professionals after watching one or two videos online. Neither does a trader. Analysing past performances, whether it’s reviewing a golf game or assessing trading results, is crucial for identifying areas of improvement and fine-tuning strategies moving forward. But only you can do this “honestly” claiming a birdie when it should be marked as a bogey is only cheating yourself. To Master the Art The pursuit of mastery in both golf and trading is a lifetime journey. Neither field offers shortcuts to success; both require dedication, practice, and resilience. However, the sense of accomplishment and reward from mastering a challenging golf course or successfully navigating complex markets can be immensely satisfying and still that one bad shot is soul-destroying. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Smart Money and the why behind it I have used @TradingView for near enough 10 years now. What I like about the platform is the simplicity and the tools. I often get asked about things like strategy or other people's techniques - "What do you think of SMC or this guy or that guy" Look, when it comes to trading - Liquidity is something very little people understand. Gurus talk about it and draw pretty lines but still fail to break it down as to why it's there in the first place. "Ah it's where the big boys buy or sell" so to help visualise this lets use some of these tools here on Tradingview. Look at my first chart here; What I have done is jumped up a timeframe and placed a volume profile tool on my chart, then simply used the drawing tool to draw a squiggle around the relevant nodes. I then dropped back to the smaller timeframe and switched on a couple of indicators to help visualise where the liquidity is. if you look at the lines 15minutes and 30minutes both in green and cast your eyes to the right, can you see they sit just below (as price is coming from above) to those higher volume nodes from that higher timeframe? Let's use another tool here on TradingView; This one is called a fixed range volume profile. the two blue lines extended out are known as the value area high and low. Often this is set to around 70-75% but I like to reduce that a little. The red line is called a PoC or point of control. This basically means the highest transactional point of the range you fixed. However, if you look over to the left this time you will see two higher volume nodes (mountains) and therefore look at the 15m and 30m lines again with fresh eyes. In this next image I have increased the range and dragged it over to include more data. I could write full strategies on this tool alone. The first thing you should notice is the PoC has now jumped up higher. Think logically about this for a second. We are seeking lower timeframe liquidity down low and the area of interest and value is showing price was accepted up high. So, after grabbing liquidity, would we anticipate the price to continue down lower or come back to play in the accepted zone? This is where a lot of newer traders fail, especially when trading smart money concepts "SMC" for short. They fail to understand the bigger picture. Another little tool in the same box-set is the Timeprice indicator. Much like session volume this gives a pretty clean view and of course settings can be adjusted. I like the look on this one, it's very modern. But the real value isn't until you zoom in and zoom in and you see why it's called Time - Price. I'll leave that for another post. But continuing the theme of this post; look at the clusters of the time price indicator and note where the PoC sits on the 15m liquidity level. Then below the 30m liquidity is the lower side of the value area. Are you starting to see a theme? In this last image; I have simply highlighted liquidity to keep my chart clean. You will see candles showing the last buys before the selloff. Then a consolidation under the liquidity - this is basically a Wyckoff structure prior to a mark down move. We then drop into the liquidity pocket and here is where most SMC traders would be jumping long. We see a very nice little rally, then a large fast drop through the liquidity, this hitting many stops and triggering new short positions. which is why as these shorts get triggered, you anticipate the pullback - to what level? Well look left and the charts will tell you. I hope this has opened a few eyes - go away and have a play with these indicators on @TradingView and feel free to aks if you have any questions. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

The Bitcoin Lotto Remember when the excitement of the lottery was all about the potential of life-changing wins from just a small ticket price? Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has emerged as the new frontier of that thrilling potential. Once priced at a humble $1,000, Bitcoin was accessible and brimming with promise. Today, with its value as high as $60,000, the landscape has undeniably transformed, offering new opportunities and considerations for investors worldwide. Bitcoin isn't just a digital currency; it's a revolution that's reshaping financial markets, much like the anticipation of hitting the jackpot. However, unlike the traditional lottery, Bitcoin investment isn't purely about luck—it's about smart, informed decision-making, historical insight, and future potential. Imagine being part of a technological evolution that's not just a game of chance but also a calculated step toward financial empowerment. When navigating these markets, you want to stay clear of the echo chambers. We have had tails of "98k next month and $135,000 In December" back in 2021. The main issue with the sentiment at the current levels, are it seems everyone and their dog bought Bitcoin under $20,000 at the exact bottom. They were also calling longs at 69k. It's an inflation beater, it's just had 12 ETF's approved, there's a price multiplier, sell your house and buy Bitcoin. It looks like Trump might win back the White House and of course, he has endorsed Bitcoin. The question shouldn't really be "where does this go" instead it should be "why isn't it there yet". I've joked a couple of times - If you bought a house at 69,000 in 2021 and now in 2024 it's worth 59,000 should you sell it or hold it, I have had replies like "You should have bought Bitcoin"... This is not a bash against Crypto; it's knowing the value and understanding the perception vs reality dilemma. The controlled aspect of the move up from 15k to 73 and that high being just enough of a liquidity grab much like 65k to 69k. Years apart, means there is a lot of control in an asset many claim "Cannot be controlled". The sentiment was all about Freedom and liberty; no institutional control, no government control - Go Trump, Go Blackrock. My questions remain, If you were lucky in at sub 10k prices - you have had a good trade (providing you profited obviously) Paper gains are not wins. But where does the additional funding come from for a double of it's current price? Why are we not at 100k+ already after a Trump endorsement, a halving, a price multiplier, 12 ETF's approved? The world of Social media has made it easier for keyboard warriors to catch every bottom, sell every top (yet never sell anything) and claim paper gains to the moon. Investing doesn't need to be the same as a lotto ticket. It just needs a good understanding of why liquidity moves the way it does and who's side the profits usually come back to. Anyway - food for thought this weekend! Have a good one. Stay safe

Long

by Mayfair_Ventures

Wait... Bitcoin handle of a CUP??? All new @TradingView tool which auto-detects the Cup & Handle Pattern. So on the weekly time frame.... See for yourself! I often post educational content and share info on the latest indicators and tools. Here on Tradingview, we can see this form on the weekly with an upside target to around $127,000. You heard it here first ;-) Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe. (Definitely don't take this as advice)

Long

by Mayfair_Ventures

So...Against popular belief, it is what it is. unfortunately, it's not where people want it to be. People want to think I am anti Bitcoin, or negative to the cause. Again, this could not be further from the truth. I'm just one of the lucky ones in early and care very little what it does at the moment. It's clear people try to find bullish narratives especially when gone all in, but you have to remain a realist to make good money. Well at least over and over again. I've shared various posts and stream over these last couple of years and still not likely to win popularity contests or crypto influencer of the year when you don't have rhyme nor reason to scream for 100k with a silly face on each thumbnail. COT data still shows a negative LF sentiment - this is not big boys getting REKT, it's big players profiting at a premium (whose selling to the retail crowd?). I have spoken to some level headed players in the space; one of which was Ryan at Uncomplication and we spoke about why the options would be good or bad for the short-term. Kind of kike an "if this, then that outcome". As you can see from these options; option 1 and the preferred move would have been an extended accumulation phase. Thus giving enough fuel to take a real shot at the moon. I also shared posts about the interesting movements down low, prior to this move up. Now the issue for option 2 or 3 playing out was the limitations to the upside without a run on lower liquidity. So again, not needing to visit 12k or 9k - just to grab stops and cause serious doubt is enough in situations like this. You might have already seen the Wall Street Cheat Sheet; These things are as old as time. As option 1 didn't play itself (we did not accumulate enough) the move up has all the hallmarks of a larger degree corrective. Hence, in the ideal scenario; we would have seen a pullback allowing "fair value" to be accumulated, instead the CVD showed an existing positive position meaning profit taking up high. Thank you by the way. This move would have been on the cards & the chances are we could be. However, the concern and issue is this caps the upside on a colossal scale to a little over 100k before a very, very long term corrective kicks in. Still waiting on $135k as every influencer and their dog screamed for. Yup, still waiting from Nov 21, 22, 23 and nearing 24. The question you need to ask, is after 12 ETF approvals and retail screaming MASSIVE Net-inflows, we just had a halving and of course the golden price multiplier. So the question is; what's pinning it down? where is the lead balloon? Option 2 we talked about was if the price had created a classic ZIG-ZAG corrective move; 48-52k would have been optimal. The reason this was worse than option 1 was it means a longer time in limbo. Now option 3 paints a combo of the two as you technically have either a weak move impulsive up leading to a long corrective or a corrective B giving a running flat B hence another slow burner down before some real momentum can be had. I covered every major move over the last couple of years, now it's becoming more institutional it's only time. Just because retail wants 100k tomorrow, doesn't mean it has to play ball - especially not in the timeframe majority of retail want it to happen. I think the move needs a natural play both ways here; now we have massive liquidity sitting lower and of course a lot of eager, anxious buyers higher. COT is a big telltale sign for me. I also covered and published the move options in the book' So when I say, nothing has changed. It means since talking about this the first time - we are still playing out the worst of the 3 options so it seems. I'll finish with - 12 ETF's x Price Multiplier + Halving = WHY NOT $1 million yet? Take it easy and see you on the next post. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

BALAXI Pharmaceutical LTD is Showing Good Strength Can be Held Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 47.3%. Debtor days have improved from 71.3 to 56.7 days. Financial Performance Commentary 6 Revenue Higher contribution from the pharmaceuticals business led to y-o-y growth of 20% in revenues for FY23 compared to FY22. The share of LATAM markets increased to 40% of pharmaceutical revenues, highlighting our ability to quickly expand geographical presence. Key contributions to growth came from recently launched operations in markets like Honduras and El Salvador that are showing stronger demand for our products apart from substantial growth in Guatemala and Dominican Republic. Our pharma business in Angola continues to generate strong cash flows that are being re-invested for expanding into new markets EBITDA During the year, operating EBITDA stood at Rs. 59.17 crore, a growth of 7.2% y-o-y. This was on account of increasing contribution from LATAM markets and expansion into newer geographies. EBITDA margin has declined by over 200 bps to 17.6% in FY23 - however, going forward with contribution from the newly entered market rising, there should be a steady rise in our margins Profit After Tax and EPS During the year, Profit After Tax stood at Rs. 45.96 crore. Earnings per Share (EPS) for the year was recorded at Rs. 45.81 compared to Rs. 47.66 in the previous year.

Long

by iism-ExpertTrading

New Volume Footprint option on TradingView Hi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint. This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth. Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea.

Education

18:17

by Mayfair_Ventures

Making your first million is the hardest After that, it's leverage. The issue for me as a long-time trader, is people these days don't seem to have time, patience or the ability to absorb information. They read an article or watch a few seconds of a stream and assume they know! I am not just talking crypto, I mean in general. The attention span of a fish. I read a pretty decent article by this guy @holeyprofit He talked about Bitcoin Mania with a lot of truth, most people won't want to hear. Article here The issue is the whole market right now are currently hinging on or near their all-time highs, Gold, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500) stocks such as Meta, NVIDIA and loads of others. Instead of shouting for even greater highs, the question should be "what is sustaining the rally?" For the majority of retail traders, they assume it's different this time. Gamestop was up until it was not. The issue is that they never learn. They have no concept of time factors and the assumption that markets only ever go up is the very reason the majority of traders stay broke. Crypto is a really interesting space, when I first got involved in 2011, it was a punt. I got lucky, but buying cheap and selling high is what most people strive for. Yet, reading posts and social media content - nobody sells, they all buy low, stacking sats when the price drops. So where is the profit? Well paper gains I assume. Game stop... Not to focus on Crypto; the markets as a whole can be profitable and just like Kenny Rogers said - "if you're going to play the game boy, you got to learn to play it right. know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away and know when to run" Every hand's a winner - every hand's a loser. Key message there!!! Trading vs investments - if you are looking to make it big on one deal, that's different than profiting from the market every week, every month and every year. Risk management is key, scaling your account, cutting losers quickly and adding to winners. Many won't understand this concept. Markets go up and everyone is a genius in a bull market. Once you start scaling an account, the trade percentages in terms of rewards you seek don't matter the same. You don't need 10x returns on your thousand dollars. A 3% win on your million-dollar account is a different game. Back in 2021; I wrote this educational post about the psychology of the markets. I used the Simpsons as a way to get the message over. Markets breathe and the rise and fall, rise and fall. Once you realise you can take from the market consistently, you will see the stress disappear, and the care of price up or down matters less. Your investment criteria changes and the scope gets wider. This is how you scale from that first million, into the second and third. Not having all eggs in one basket and hope it goes up forever. What if gold drops 10% and you are long? can you afford a 5 year spell on the investment you have? These are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself. What if Bitcoin's halving is a buy the rumour, sell the news and we take another 3 years to get back to a new ATH? "ah it's different this time" - yeah I heard all that in 2021 when certain influencers were calling for $135,000 worse case within a month. We are 2024 and still roughly half of the way to 135k?? I know for you guys who want to learn and progress you would have read this far; for those who "already know" they have stopped reading about 4 lines in and seeing a picture or 2. They leave a comment due to their keyboard warrior mindset and fish-like capacity for thinking. The point is to ensure you deploy proper risk management, especially here near the tops of a lot of these markets, trail your stop losses, and don't forget to cash out your profits. Paper gains can quickly become paper losses. If you're serious about money making, be prepared to diversify, be prepared to sit on your hands, keep cash in your pocket as well as be prepared to take calculated risks. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

How or why did you start trading?I've spent nearly 10 years on Tradingview. But after doing this since the age of 15; it's been interesting and fun (don't worry, this is not me retiring) I just wanted to share some of the key points, the ups and the downs, the challenges and the rewards. For those of you who don't follow or know me, my trading started after a school trip from Wales (in the UK) to New York's Wall Street. We went to learn about the Wall Street crash and visited the exchange. Needless to say I was hooked! My early years of trading, I would take the pushbike to the bank and trade stocks from the Times newspaper, it was always over the phone via the bank broker, I had to do this via my mother as I wasn't old enough for a stock account through my bank. These were large cap stocks, things like Vodaphone, Cadbury's and ones most people could identify with. These were never big trades just the experience I guess. How I funded this was, I dropped out of school not long after that trip to New York, no qualifications, just the idea of being a trader and taking over my father's engineering company. I would work as an engineer, still live with my parents, and buy stocks. It wasn't until a few years later I got into penny stocks. I guess for me - seeing the Wolf of Wall Street movie, it was a bit like that: you would buy stocks for fractions of a penny and watch them pump. Some traded better than others but still had very little knowledge; trading wasn't as accessible as it is today. I guess looking back this was very similar to what I see in crypto today, especially with alt coins. about 5 years into the journey, I ended up getting into Forex where I guess I have stayed ever since. This was fast-paced compared to stocks and the markets being open 24 hours a day 5 days a week. I would take long term trades such as the difference between the interest rate of the New Zealand Dollar vs the Great British Pound for example. It just felt like free money. (those were the days). From there I also started trading Gold, Oil & SPX. Running in parallel, I ended up in the tech space; investing in cyber security around financial markets. I keep little souvenirs of the journey like this card from buying my first Ferrari. It reminds me of why it was interesting in the first place! I think you need this as a trader, I have written several articles here on Tradingview about the psychology and loneliness of being a trader. Two of my favourites are the Simpsons one and the other side of the trade. Doing things you wouldn't usually do is part of creating your inner trader. I was fortunate enough to get into Bitcoin early doors, right place, right time as they say. From 2012 onwards been educating, mentoring and advising people and what a journey that's been. I have met some great people along the way. This brings me back to the upside, downside and, of course, the psychology and emotions of trading. Trading can be a very lonely place to be if you have nobody to share the wins with in real-time; it's hard when you manage losses and keep them to yourself. Of course it's very, very rewarding when all is going to plan! I can't emphasise the importance of a community, it's actually one of the reasons for posting this post. With access to charts and brokers directly on your phone, it's an incredible change from the time I first started. But it can also bring a lot of hidden dangers, it's a unique type of lifestyle. I understand not everyone trades for a living, it's a hobby or a way to earn some extra money. But the ups and downs of this can have a strain on mental health. Fear and greed is a real thing, not just a sentiment indicator. We are human after all. It's so easy to fall into a false sense of security after a couple of nice wins. But it's even easier to go off the rails after a handful of losses. Some really cool factors for me when it comes to trading, would have to include doing one of the Tradingview shows with Stefan back last year www.tradingview.com and discussed the fact that a notebook I had made for my 11 year son had been published as a book. Never thought I would become an author after dropping out of school. Part of the reason I stream here and write educational posts is I love to keep the trading game live and current. Watching Bitcoin unfold and become institutional has been such a pleasure and amazing to watch it transition. It's been a great way to interact with people from all around the world. I guess the point is, the power of the internet and a platform like Tradingview; allows us to share such stories with the world. What I have learnt, is that new traders come to the market with a certain expectation. Often, people assume they need more indicators, more screens, more news and more instruments. What you realise over time, is you can make a living from a handful of instruments and a little bit of logic. I'll kick it off by saying what I don't like about trading is how lonely and isolated it can be. What I do like about it is the freedom it brings. I would love to hear your story, why you started trading, what you like or don't like about it and anything you feel like sharing! Anyways; I just wanted to share this little post and get some discussions going. Have a great weekend and I'll see you on the next stream. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Time is everything A lot of people see a Bitcoin pullback, a drop or a red candle as a negative thing. Clearly this is lack of experience, lack of understanding and only ever seeing re-assurance of the one bias they can comprehend. Many people believe my posts to be negative or anti Bitcoin - you could not be more wrong, as a very early holder, I simply don't care - up down or sideways. It's been kind to me and I will say it was more luck than judgement. Right place, right time. But as a professional trader, money manager and tech investor - I have seen my fair share of market trends, hype, realism and shocks in the market to know. Time is all it takes. You can go back over SPX for example and If you buy and hold the trend has only been up. Obvious its one of indices designed to go up. This does not make it a "get rich quick scheme" For me the problem lies in the cult esq mentality and the desire to get rich quick. When you have, or manage a larger fund - time is always less of an issue, when a Limited partner of a fund told me the company hold period was 15-20 years on average, it took a while to let that sink in. 1% of a lot of money is a lot of money, 1% of a $10,000 pushes you to want more - hence jumping on the up only bandwagon. You need to remember; Last year I posted two options for Bitcoin; I said my preferred route put us in early stage accumulation. The second option went back even further than that, it's the Evil move I said I would hope Composite Man would not be as cruel. Unfortunately with the move from 32k to 48k region, it's clear now the second play has in-fact been the one playing out. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- So here's some rational logic - the medicine most DO NOT WANT to swallow. People seem to throw the same argument - ETF & Halving - They have very little else to contribute. So let's look at what an ETF is and does. An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) itself doesn't inherently stabilize an asset. However, the structure and mechanics of an ETF can have certain features that may contribute to perceived stability or liquidity in the underlying assets it represents. Here's how: Diversification: ETFs often hold a diversified portfolio of assets. By pooling together various assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities, they spread risk. This diversification can help mitigate the impact of poor performance in a single asset on the overall value of the ETF. Arbitrage Mechanism: ETFs have a unique creation and redemption mechanism. Authorized Participants (usually large financial institutions) can create or redeem ETF shares in large blocks, usually known as creation units. This process involves exchanging a basket of assets for ETF shares or vice versa. This helps to keep the market price of the ETF close to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its underlying assets, promoting stability. Liquidity: ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, providing investors with liquidity. The ability to buy or sell shares throughout the trading day at market prices contributes to the perception of stability. The underlying assets might not be as easily tradable, but the ETF itself can be bought or sold like a stock. Market Makers: In the secondary market, market makers play a crucial role in providing liquidity. They continuously quote buy and sell prices for the ETF shares, helping to ensure that there is a smooth and efficient market. This can reduce the impact of large buy or sell orders on the market price. Now for some extra therapy, we also need to look at the realistic timeframes these large players operate at. Blackrock's most popular ETF is their SPX (S&P500) fund. with it's inception around 2001 I believe. $354BN. Now if we look at Bitcoin's market cap - we dropped from $1.3 Trillion at the 69k High down to around 300Billion at the 15k low region. So working out market cap is simple current price of Bitcoin x coins in circulation. (just over 19m). This is just highlighting the obvious; Blackrock is not going to empty the SPX fund and stick $350Billion in a newly established fund. Again time, they have enough money to not need to force or risk anything on a large scale. But what is interesting is the point above about market makers. In Wall Street terms, a market maker is a financial institution or individual that facilitates the buying and selling of financial instruments in a market. Market makers play a crucial role in ensuring liquidity and maintaining orderly trading in financial markets, including stock exchanges. Here are key aspects of what market makers do: Liquidity Providers: Market makers stand ready to buy or sell a financial instrument (such as stocks, bonds, or options) at publicly quoted prices. This activity provides liquidity to the market, allowing investors to execute trades quickly and efficiently. Bid and Ask Prices: Market makers quote bid and ask prices for a security. The bid price is the price at which they are willing to buy, and the ask price is the price at which they are willing to sell. The difference between these prices is known as the bid-ask spread. Order Execution: When an investor places a market order to buy or sell a security, the market maker ensures that the trade is executed promptly by matching it with their own inventory or finding a counterparty in the market. Risk Management: Market makers take on some level of risk by holding an inventory of securities. To manage this risk, they continuously adjust their bid and ask prices based on market conditions and changes in the supply and demand for the securities. Arbitrage Opportunities: Market makers may engage in arbitrage, exploiting price differences between related financial instruments or markets. This helps ensure that the prices of the same or similar securities are consistent across different trading venues. Maintaining Orderly Markets: Market makers contribute to the overall stability and efficiency of financial markets by preventing excessive volatility and ensuring a continuous flow of trading. It's important to note that market makers profit from the bid-ask spread and trading volumes. While they facilitate trading and provide liquidity, they also manage their own risks. Market makers can be institutions like investment banks or specialized firms with expertise in particular markets. They play a crucial role in the smooth functioning of financial markets by facilitating the buying and selling of securities. ============================================= Market makers have been referred to another type of Composite Man. The term "Composite Man" is associated with the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis approach to understanding the stock market. The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard D. Wyckoff, a stock market trader and educator from the early to mid-20th century. According to this method, the Composite Man represents a hypothetical market manipulator or a group of large market participants who have the power to influence the market. In Wyckoff's view, the Composite Man is an entity that accumulates or distributes stocks in a way that leaves footprints on the price and volume charts. The actions of the Composite Man are believed to be observable through the analysis of price and volume patterns, helping traders and investors anticipate potential future price movements. Here are the key ideas associated with the Composite Man in the Wyckoff Method: Accumulation and Distribution: The Composite Man is thought to go through phases of accumulating or distributing a particular stock or market. During accumulation, the Composite Man is buying, and during distribution, they are selling. Wyckoff Price Cycle: The Wyckoff Method outlines a price cycle that includes phases such as Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Traders using this method attempt to identify these phases on price charts to make more informed decisions. Smart Money: The Composite Man is sometimes referred to as the "smart money" because it is assumed to have more information and resources than individual retail traders. Monitoring the actions of the smart money is believed to provide insights into potential market trends. When I posted posts like this from the 65k high, it was due to these footprints being visible from space. As the price moved up from the 28k region to the current ATH. Similar thing. I am not here trying to drag it or you down, I am here trying to help see logic in the charts. As the move moved up, we had a fake ETF release, in essence thus pricing in the actual ETF. This is why for me, this scenario is the most likely in the current environment. Composite Man/Market makers are happy to use the fear and greed index, which is currently tilting heavy towards the greed side. Against retail traders who see ONLY UP as the only scenario available. The space is becoming more like a cult and it's feel more and more like the simple definition of a pyramid scheme. Again, I am not saying that's what it is - I am in at the bottom my cards are on the table. The space has become "if your friends join, they also need to invite more people, and the cycle continues. The person at the top gets money from everyone below, and the people at the bottom hope to make money by bringing in more people." The problem is, there's no real product or service being sold. The only way people make money is by getting others to join. Eventually, it becomes harder for everyone to find new people, and those at the bottom end up losing money because there aren't enough new members to support the structure. This kind of scheme is not fair or sustainable and can cause a lot of people to lose their money. Especially when the big boys get involved with very little regulation covering the people at the bottom. Just remember everyone was saying "anti banks, anti institutional yet celebrating the ETF's like a win" the issue here is it's likely to stabilise the asset, slowing the phases and cycles down to a more mellow growth curve over the next 20 years. In the grand scheme of things, it's great for the industry, but we can expect more manipulation prior to regulation, post regulation the percentage gains will narrow. Keep all of this in mind and remember it's what the majority wanted. Stay safe! have fun and see you on the next post. Hate comments always welcome - just please back them up with some logic and show you have more than 3 brain cells. 😉 Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Market Algo or pain trades I was reading another trading book today and much like watching the dumb money movie the other day, it prompted me to write another post. So, you may have heard the expression "the market is an Algorithm" whilst this is somewhat true, it's actually more a sequence, Ralph Elliott, Richard Wyckoff and Edward Jones knew this. In simple terms, the larger operators or what's known as sophisticated money - chase liquidity pools that are often areas Dumb Money have taken entries or placed stops. Now if it was as simple as this, you could simply write an indicator or be on the winning side 100% of the time. Unfortunately, there's a lot more to it! When I say the smart kids are taking the dinner money of the dumb kids, you need to appreciate the fact that winning whilst playing against retail traders is like putting the Patriots against your local under 12's side. Or like having the New Zealand All Blacks play against an old people's home in Pakistan. (I am not sure if Pakistan even have a 1st team in rugby). To gain some understanding, you need to appreciate there's such a thing as "pain trading". A "pain trade" refers to a situation in financial markets where a significant number of investors or traders find themselves on the wrong side of the market, leading to losses or discomfort. In other words, it describes a scenario in which the market moves in a way that causes the most amount of pain or financial losses to the largest number of participants. For example, if a majority of traders are positioned for a market to go up, a pain trade would be a sharp and unexpected decline in prices, catching those traders off guard and causing them losses. The term reflects the idea that markets often move in ways that inflict the most damage on the greatest number of participants. Understanding pain trades is important for investors and traders, as it highlights the potential risks of crowded trades and the importance of risk management strategies to mitigate unexpected market movements. Investors and traders often use various indicators, market sentiment analysis, and risk management techniques to try to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a pain trade. (Thanks ChatGPT for the summary). ====================================================== So take a company like Carvana for example... This type of move happens over and over again - creating cycles (But not always the same). In this image above you can see it's likely to have swept long stop losses and then rallied hard. You probably know about the Gamestop Saga. I wrote a post on that film recently. I talked about being on the wrong side - I can't get over how someone could be up $500,000 and still go broke? But it's all in the mindset. Liquidity is the name of the game. How do these things fit together? Well, Bitcoin is a prime example - retail mindset is "HODL, Buy the Dip, Diamond hands & Lambo" - whilst as a professional trader, it's enjoying your profits and buying/selling at the expense of the dumb money. These moves are shown as the last post, buy momentum. Here is the summary image from that post. Since we had a move up - retail seem to think it's up only, they seem to put all the eggs in the hope Blackrock and a halving will make them rich... I have read articles like this recently. After watching the Dumb Money film - you know where following the crowd goes. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Why is this an important lesson? It's all to do with pain, where is the maximum pain? Retail sentiment would suggest pain comes in the form of little movement, grinding prices in up moves and fast aggressive drops. Some context from Blackrock themselves: What is Blackrocks Biggest ETF? So again, let's add a little logic. Where is liquidity sitting? If and it's a big if - Blackrock get an ETF approved and it's half the size of their biggest ETF to date, let's then assume Retail flood in and match it dollar for dollar. That market cap would still put us roughly at the current ATH, given coins in circulation. This again just amplifies, why we are simply - NOT READY, YET!!! The move I didn't want in 2022, looks to be the biggest liquidity grab we are likely to see in the Bitcoin chart. We are very, very likely still in an A-B move up for the slow pain of coming back to build sustainable momentum. Have a Happy New Year all! Stay safe and see you in 2024! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Bitcoin patterns and cycles Here's a post not many people will like! But as a professional trader of over 23 years now, I can say, one does not stay in the game this long without learning a thing or two. This year I started my Christmas break a little early wound down and been enjoying some hobbies and movies. Last night I watched the film called Dumb money, it emphasised the retail mindset so much! That convinced me to write this little post. People confuse being bearish with being anti crypto, anti Bitcoin. This could not be further from the truth. I have been VERY fortunate in terms of Bitcoin and Crypto for that matter. First entering a punt position in 2011. Needless to say, I am still profitable ;-) So what does get to me, is the little knowledge retail posses. There was a scene in the movie that highlighted just how the big boys win, but it wasn't just this scene where the Fund Manager calls his buddie - the buddie says, "how much you need, never mind the number, I'll do it" Yet, it wasn't even this that got me to write this post. It was the sheer fact that all the way through - the "dumb money" was searching for a signal, using terms like diamond hands and so on. What clicked for me, was whilst of course - holding my Bitcoin I bought in 2011 would be immense when it tops $250,000 or even $1million. The real question should be - when is enough, enough? It's this that separates us pro's and the dumb money. Back in 2021 on the run up - I shared this post about the re-accumulation phase. It was here the first clues to institutional money became apparent. Then the move from the major high back to 28 was obvious. The move back to the current ATH also the same. The way back to the bottom - the same. The issue then was - Personally, I wanted this to be early accumulation. I was wrong! It was and still is much earlier than I anticipated! (maybe I would have liked) Why, well, I still hold Bitcoin and don't short it. I believe in the future and once it's fully regulated and controlled, there's no stopping it becoming the digital gold standard for sure! So, where I was wrong - I really wanted the move up to be 30-32k to give a textbook move up for an ST down, collect liquidity and go. We then proceeded to go up without grabbing that extra liquidity. The issue therefor, is a simple one. We need to secure that just like filling a car for a long road trip. I shared this as a concern in September last year. Whilst secretly praying it wouldn't play out like this. Unfortunately - it's exactly what we did ... Now I scrap the early stage accumulation in favour for still being negative sentiment. Yup, we are simply not ready for the power play up. Blackrock WILL NOT be bag carries for retail and that I am certain. Now, here is the logic. Summary view Step one: Take a look at the momentum and volume when moving impulsively. Then the nested 0-1 move inside the larger up move. Look at what happened when we really made some headway. Now, as the tides turned - what did we see? This was clear as day, we built momentum to the downside as we saw aggressive RED candles. This might make it easier to spot the difference? I've shared my concerns on the monthly stochastic. Which then brings me back to "What I didn't want to happen" After watching the movie last night, this thing is going to shake out the weak whilst the pro's enjoy the discounts again. Value areas have not changed much for me since the re-accumulation up first major ATH above 60k. Anyways - just wanted to share this. Stay safe, enjoy the Holidays! Wish you all a Happy New Year! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Trading Automation I am just going to put it out there, as you know I have said time and time again in my streams. Personally, the whole automated trading concept is not for me. However, that’s not to say there are not some good strategies, tools and instruments that could work for some people. Risk tolerance, time frames, bull vs bear markets all play a role in trading. This is emphasised when the trading is automated. A few weeks back, myself and @Paul_Varcoe starting streaming about shorter timeframes and automation. We said we were working on something in the background – mostly to do with trading via prop firms. Here’s on of my streams on that topic. So, the next part was automation. Here's one of these streams: www.tradingview.com I have been lurking around a couple of services, tools and platforms – one of these is a company/product called 3Commas. A few things I found interesting. One of which is that it supports multiple cryptocurrency exchanges, allowing users to trade on various platforms using a single interface. For the Tradingview community this is a very useful option. You can even go as far as connecting your bot to one or more TradingView indicators of your choice, and the bot will automatically receive alerts and open trades accordingly. My reluctance of automation has always been, if a bot can do it – we won’t need Doctors or Police officers as they will all want to be professional traders. I have also spent some time in the money management sector and know the investment and effort some very large operators have put into the automation game. What I liked about this 3commas platform, is that it opens the door for retail to play in this world. Having access to trading bots that can execute trades automatically based on predefined strategies is one factor, it still requires users to set up custom trading strategies or choose from a marketplace of existing strategies developed by other users. So, what this means is if you have a specific trading strategy you can link directly from Tradingview and just allow it to open trades. I have taken this image as an example from their site, it’s easier than trying to write it myself. There also seems to be a lot of open-source code, literature and information readily available online. All beneficial factors if you’re planning on going down the automation route. Myself and Paul have been more conventional traders, operating in well established markets. But of course we have had our dabbles in alt coins, Bitcoin and so on. It seems to be the way the world is shifting. I have been using webhooks on Tradingview recently to trade Aussie dollar and Euro on smaller timeframes just sending an alert to one of my channels – but the ability to take out the execution stage is a new one on me. If you’re a crypto fanatic I can say this is worth a look for sure! When looking at this automation, I found another editors pick here on @TradingView So, although I know very little about the strategy or the individual trader @Bjorgum who wrote the article, it’s a great example of the type of power mixing things like 3Commas and Tradingview can yield. Throughout 2023 I have shown and shared several articles on Prop firm trading, shorter timeframes and even how to use Chat GPT to write Tradingview indicators. Link to one of them: www.tradingview.com My next step is to use chat GPT to program an indicator I can fully automate (market condition depending) to link to 3Commas using TV as the glue. Here’s an example of what I mean: I literally asked ChatGPT this question “can you write a pinescript version 4 code to enter trades based on pivot point breakouts taking profits at S2 and R2 with stop losses in the other direction at R1 and S1.” I got a reply; Before you ask - The code will probably get rejected to put out as an indicator as Pinescript will say “Pivot point indicators are readily available” but copy and paste my question above and you should get a similar result. Of course, this is only an example. Feel free to play around with your own strategies and concepts. The idea then is to take this through the papertesting and backtesting to refine a strategy that you feel comfortable with in terms of plugging into a bot and connecting to your broker. The whole concept for me is mind blowing, the fact that anyone can have a Tradingview account, use ChatGPT to build and indicator and execute a trade via your broker on a platform like 3Commas. Over the next couple of weeks I intend on digging a little deeper with these and either start with using ChatGPT to link a strategy via Tradingview into 3Commas or take a strategy or indicator off the shelf and test drive it in a stream or sequence of streams. Maybe give me some ideas, if you like? what timeframes? What instruments etc... This will be part of the educational, how to make trading automation a real thing series. Anyways! Enjoy the Holidays - Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Bitcoin Bullish People seem to think I have had a negative view of Bitcoin, when actually it's quite the opposite. For one Bitcoin has been very, very kind to me. My first buy was in 2011. So first, let's get one thing straight - the desire for this to go long is there for me! But and it's a big Caveat I have been a professional trader for over 23 years. This side of me knows all too well what is needed for markets to move. Throwing words like BlackRock, Halving or ETF doesn't carry a lot of weight in the real world! Being sensible, for Bitcoin to be up sustainably it needs cause that creates the effect. Over the last couple of years I have mapped out "EVERY" major swing. Seeing the sentiment in the events I was attending as a money manager, you could see the interest - let's say the curiosity more than the intent. This was back as far as 2017, as we started to watch the transition to institutional involvement on the run up to the first major FWB:64K high. The fact it was this obvious, showed the intent going forward. As we had the next moves the rise to the current ATH and of course all the way back to 15k, the obvious move is a much, much larger accumulation. Yes I have covered this as well - at the time of publishing the book, The price was at it's ST - what do we need? well a move up of course. The assumption was we would rally as high as $32,000 region. During the rally up, Blackrock news came out and on pure HOPIUM the price rallied to $38,000; this caused retail to jump on the "Up only Bandwagon" but before you click off as it's not all rosy and bullish, take a look through the microscope. I explained the dangers of the fake run on liquidity What a surprise - well, maybe not... So, keep in mind. Cause and effect - the cause = giant accumulation, the effect equals up. But again, this does not mean up in a straight line. I am being honest and realistic here guys. These moves do not effect me, I sold out at the high and happy to buy confirmation not hype. Take a look at the COT data.. On the left is Asset Managers and they are buying long term positions. NICE! Up, only! On the right we have Leveraged Funds - these guys in essence make money trading against retail. (more to this than that). The issue I have is these guys are net short, which means as retail is soaking up the price on low volume, larger players are willing to sell to them. Here's a couple of snapshots. Daily Weekly Monthly the monthly pullback is only .382 (swing high to low) This has caused CVD divergence. Drop down back to the daily. More points for you to think about. So I will ask again, what exactly is the Bullish cause here? Blackrock throwing $15Trillion to make all retail traders rich isn't the correct answer. Blackrock will not be retail bag holders. Here's some 'real info' from Blackrock's own site. $3 Trillion covering all ETF's since 1993 - another point, there are currently over 1,400 ETF's. If you don't think we need a pullback, if you think it's just going to grind up on low volume, or if you think Blackrock will make you rich. There's a few home truths here. Know what's coming and you can profit from it as well as manage expectations and emotions. This book got published in May this year. The blueprint is there! it's clear and setup nicely. Would I short it, no I never short Bitcoin only sell my long positions. Would I buy more here, NOPE. Take it easy guys and just apply a little sense. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

The Complex Realities Many people seem to think this is Bullish. Forgetting the fact (obviously) that it's still 50% from it's $69,000 High. Classic case of retail only seeing what retail want to see and are blinded by every other opinion, including backed by sound logic. When I said all that time ago - let's go long. There was method to the madness, I had already been personally long several years. I explained why as a money manager it was now a thing of interest. Fast foreword a little - the re-accumulation phase. This was the most interesting call of all for me. You see, what I knew would be happening here was the bigger players had been entering and would use techniques to both enter and exit on their own terms. This was simply stunning to watch play out in front of your own eyes. As we rallied away from the re-accumulation zone - retail got greedy and majority of social media was calling for 100k. Instead we had a very distinct pattern start. I tried to warn people, but 100k had their eyes glazed over! All you need to ask yourself, is who's selling. No I don't mean then. I mean now. Here's the hint. As we rallied from that 28k, it was pig ugly, you couldn't mask that move up with digital lipstick. I explained why it would be capped. It needed to go down 3-4 and it would go up 4-5 but it already had it's name marked just above the old All Time High. So we get up to a new high - yet again, calls for 100k came long and loud, 250k, a million dollars. Then it was apparent, people just threw numbers out in the air, rainbow stock to flow models and the reality was, they had less than half a clue! Plan A, B, C and D was all "long only" again not listening to rational or logic. As we dropped down "As I said we would" the next obvious move was the re-distribution. I explained how this would play out. No surprise, it did! We hit $15,000 a long way from the $135,000 worse case your local influencers were shouting for. We now start a long-term accumulation. People with the memory of a fish, think that this move up will clear their red bags. Need I remind you we are still 50% of the ATH. What can we see out on the monthly? Look again Maybe the monthly is too much to wait for? Here's the weekly view. The angle, the volume, the overbought nature... None of these scream - Bullish intent. Retail pumps the price by a couple of thousand dollars and it's again cries for the moon. The Blackrock approval of it's ETF pumped the price artificially and Institutional players are taking advantage. The accumulation phase, is happening, but it is not done - yet. Before you jump into the comments with "Long Only" - back it up with logic, let's create the great debate. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

People want to earn but not learn The issue is everyone wants to make money (well, maybe not everyone) but nobody wants to take the time to learn how to do it properly. This is NOT a sales pitch by the way! it's FACT!! People often ask why I bash influencers so much, it's mainly for this reason. Majority of noobs, come into trading expecting to make a fortune. If only it was that easy, every man and his dog would be a professional trader. Over the years, I have talked about things like Bots and AI that are programmed to make you money - think logically, if again it is this easy wouldn't the founders go to the bank, loan $10million based on their results and just not bother selling and shilling to customers and retail. NOBODY wants to provide customer service, especially to the world's population. Unfortunately, regardless of the market. Trust me if you stick around long enough you get to see this behaviour in Forex, Commodities, Stocks and more recently crypto with a splash of A.I. The story goes pretty much the same way. "man (or woman) hears about an opportunity to make money through a thing called trading, they do their research which leads to the old You of Tube and that leads to "Lamborghini promises from kids with fake watches, drawing random trendlines on 3 minute charts" There's often a "sign-up" bonus if you click their shill link. So let's get this straight, they make money on watch time and those links you click. The reason I chose fish in the image above, is that most people have memories that last about 2 seconds. Mark Cuban said "everyone is a genius in a bull market" Algorithms work and influencers claim to be experts with 3 months of experience. Easy to show in a market only going one way. Trading is hard enough, let alone having the ability to lose money from scams. If a trading algorithms promises a 90% win rate - run and don't buy it. ============================================================== There are fundamental things to do and you can deploy to get you off on the right track. Firstly think of the obvious. 90% of new traders lose 90% of their money in only 90 days. Hence a 50% sign-up bonus whereby you think you gained "free cash" often has small print that you can't access it until you lost your original investment. Affiliates tend to get 25% or more of the deposit - the exchanges know full well, your about to lose your money. Second thing I try to emphasis for newer traders, is that you need to treat trading as a profession. You wouldn't watch a video and expect to be a doctor, you also wouldn't buy an algorithm or Artificial Intelligence software and expect to become New York's latest Hot Shot Lawyer You see where this is going? There is no secret sauce, no silver bullet and no short cuts. If you want to trade and make money trading, you need the basics. You need to keep doing the basics well and evolve your mindset more than a strategy. Areas that will really help you include proper risk management. If your willing to be sat in negative 20, 30 or even 50% equity positions. This won't take you long to lose your entire trading pot. Instead risking 1-2% with a risk strategy of 2 -1 or greater. it's a slower game, but it keeps you playing the game. If you take a 3 or even a 4 reward trade with only 1 risk. For every time you are right, it's giving you 4 times as much as when you are wrong. Imagine winning 20% of your trading days and still being at breakeven... simple 1:4 ratio. This is only one small aspect to keep in mind. As I mentioned above, if strategies or software is pitched with high percentage win rates - run. You need to understand the market acts differently and past results do not indicate future performance. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, remember. You do not need to go looking for the silver bullet. These strategies do not exist, instead spend the time working on strategies that can be consistent in various market conditions. This is no small task, your strategy might identify entries in a counter trend differently than it would in say a ranging market. The answer to resolve this, is BACKTESTING Don't just run your strategy on replay mode, although @TradingView has a great little tool for this. Spend the time to look at things such as "repainting" this means that when your strategy triggers an entry, does it disappear and reappear. If so, do some manual back testing. Then Dig deeper and analyse the type of market condition it was more profitable or less profitable. This could be things like "I lose more on a Monday, compared to other days" or when the market goes sideways, It triggers too many trades. I've written several articles here on pure education. Here's a few examples. In this post (worth clicking on) it has a whole bunch of lessons inside. Think of trading like you would a university course, there's plenty to learn but you can have some fun along the way! Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Bitcoin made complex As someone who has been around Bitcoin a long time, I find it interesting to see people try and find their own "edge" from how they utilise on-chain metrics, to liquidity maps and sometimes even deeper with things like the energy consumption or BTC mined. The last couple, most recent years - Bitcoin has been moving towards it's institutional position and that has been something incredible to watch first hand as it slowly unfurled. The logic can be simplified and following the larger players and their intentions can be very lucrative. The major issue with statistics and metrics is that these can also be spoofed, manipulated and written in ways favourable to the cause. **Caveat - not always, but can be ** What gets me is when a local 'influencer' comes up with why Bitcoin will ping some arbitrary figure just because it sounds rounded. I haven't once heard someone say, it's likely to hit $237,500 followed by some logical argument. Here's some simple logic. Bitcoin's market cap. At $69,000 we saw a cap of 1.3T roughly. To obtain this number you can do the math by knowing how many coins in circulation and times that by the price. This of course will be ever changing, new addresses and price fluctuations coupled with more coins until 21m is hit. So you can be rough on your calculations without stressing. Here is a snapshot of the coins in circulation Take this now with the current price lingering around $27,000 you have a market cap. Why does this matter? Well, it doesn't really, other than to guestimate what kind of additional money in-flows would be required to make Bitcoin as valuable as the influencers claim. Let's use the current number 19,491,306 Times that by the price claimed and you can guestimate a Market Cap. 19 million, 491 thousand, 3 hundred and 6 times $250,000 (often used figure) The question then becomes - where does the additional money come from? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this image, you can see the steady growth of the tokens/coins in circulation Or here the transactions per day. How about the energy consumption? You see, none of this actually matters when analysing the charts. Instead, understanding the picture painted by the larger players in the game, can give you hints as to where and why next. You take the snapshot of the COT (Commitment of Traders) report. This has allowed me to assess every major move in the Bitcoin chart, the logic for each swing is smacking you square in the face. These moves are not as random as you think. The market is simply an algorithm seeking liquidity. Nothing more complex than that. Instead these clowns come up with figures like $250,000 and quotes like 98k next month and 135k the month after, without any logic or rational as to how or where the money is coming from. Instead of moving up to $135,000 the price drops to $15,500 that's an awful lot to be wrong. Why? ZERO logic or clue as to what actually moves the market. Imagine selling at the top?! If the smiley laughing emoji hadn't have been used, it could have been one awesome call! Instead of looking in the wrong places, learn to understand where and why. Here's another interesting topic on this point. Anyways, enjoy the rest of your week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Correlation in the market Market correlation in the financial space that plays a crucial role in investment strategies, risk management, and portfolio diversification. It refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of different financial instruments move in relation to each other. Investors and traders use correlation analysis to make informed decisions about asset allocation and to manage risk effectively. Understanding Correlation Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to +1 Positive Correlation equals two financial instruments have a positive correlation, it means they tend to move in the same direction. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to increase as well. A positive correlation of 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak positive relationship. Negative Correlation Conversely, is when two financial instruments have a negative correlation, it means they move in opposite directions. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to decrease. A negative correlation of -1 indicates a perfect negative relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak negative relationship. No Correlation : When the correlation between two financial instruments is zero, there is no discernible relationship between their movements. Changes in one instrument's price or return have no bearing on the other. Importance of Market Correlation Market correlation is essential for several reasons: Diversification: Investors use correlation analysis to build diversified portfolios. By combining assets with low or negative correlations, they can reduce the overall risk of their portfolio. When one asset performs poorly, another may perform well, helping to mitigate losses. Risk Management: Understanding how different instruments correlate can help investors assess the risk associated with their investments. If a portfolio is heavily concentrated in assets with high positive correlations, it may be more vulnerable to market volatility. Trading Strategies: Traders use correlation analysis to develop trading strategies. For example, pairs trading involves taking long and short positions in two correlated assets with the expectation that the spread between them will narrow or widen. Asset Allocation: Asset managers consider market correlations when deciding how to allocate resources across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.). A well-balanced allocation can enhance long-term returns while managing risk. Correlation Among Different Instruments Market correlation extends to various financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. Here are a few examples: Stocks: Correlation among individual stocks can vary widely. Stocks within the same industry or sector often have a positive correlation due to common market influences. However, stocks from different sectors may have lower correlations or even negative correlations. Bonds: Correlations among bonds depend on factors such as interest rates, credit quality, and maturity. For instance, long-term government bonds tend to have a negative correlation with equities, making them attractive for diversification. Commodities: The correlation among commodities can be influenced by factors like supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions. For instance, gold is often negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. Currencies: Currency pairs exhibit different correlation patterns. For example, EUR/USD and USD/JPY often have negative correlations because the U.S. dollar is on the opposite side of these pairs. OK, so what does correlation look like in real terms? Have you ever noticed that when a certain currency pair rises, another currency pair falls? This is correlation. I recently wrote an article here on TradingView around the "whole Economy" DXY is a great indicator for many instruments including Gold, SPX and of course Bitcoin. In that article I explained how I rise in DXY would trigger the drop in Gold, we went from 1985 to 1915. Interesting facts. Canadian dollar has the highest correlation with crude oil due to the significant proportion of Canada's GDP reliant on oil. While historically AUD has a strong relationship with gold. So........ Where does market correlation and Blackrock Bitcoin ETF fit in? First, let's use Blackrocks own definition of an ETF. (available directly from their site) An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading. ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees. Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've read countless posts on social media recently claiming Blackrock approval would bring $15 Trillion into Bitcoin, read the above note from their own website "Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. So let's assume they own the whole market and all $3 Trillion went directly into the Blackrock ETF. We have to remember the market cap at $69,000 was a little over $3 Trillion. This is far short of $1million a coin price predictions based purely off an ETF approval. Now to my point. ETF market correlation refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of ETFs correspond to the movements of their underlying assets or benchmarks. This correlation can have significant implications for investors. ETFs are often used for portfolio diversification. Understanding the correlation between ETFs and their underlying assets helps investors assess the effectiveness of their diversification strategy. Low-correlation ETFs can provide better risk reduction benefits when added to a portfolio. Hmmmm... Correlation can change based on market conditions. During periods of economic stress or heightened volatility, correlations between assets may increase as investors seek refuge in more defensive assets, potentially leading to correlations converging. The composition of an ETF's underlying assets or securities matters. For instance, a sector-specific ETF may have a high correlation with the performance of stocks within that sector. Bitcoin does not have the "stock" backing, so this will be done via the OTC Bitcoin price. Which then brings us to the ability to use inverse or leveraged ETFs to hedge against market downturns or amplify returns during bullish trends. In Blackrock's case, it is more likely a tactical Allocation aimed to adjust portfolio allocations and enter the crypto space. Remember, this happened. It's not a negative, these guys will accumulate for the long run and not expect things like $250,000 Bitcoin by Christmas. Valkyrie's ETF. Just remember, the professionals make money for a living. It's not as correlated as you might have thought in the sense of "Blackrock in, retail traders get rich". Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Against the grain - Bitcoin Controversial. People don't like it when opinions don't align with their own beliefs. It's human nature, however - even when the obvious is smacking them in the face, they still want to reinforce and find support for what is inevitably wrong. I've talked before about the possibility of Government or WEF being behind Bitcoin. It would not surprise me one bit. It's an immutable ledger and all of the 3 letter agencies around the globe can't find the inventor... Secondly, people believe it to stand for freedom. Yet with the KYC and AML regulations, it takes nearly as much paperwork to own Bitcoin as it does to buy a house. (nearly) It's not like the FBI can seize it - oh wait, yes they can. Its not like China can limit the use, hmmm OK maybe. Binance will never stop people from withdrawing their own funds. Oh yeah that too. The issue is for me, is - CLEARLY there is an opportunity, even for me one of the lucky ones, been a Bitcoiner a long, long time. What does it need to thrive? well, almost the opposite of the wild west mentality seen today. Gone are the days where average Joe can own a few thousand coins. it's more likely that they will be spending around $5,000. Some of course more, a lot will have less to invest. Volatility means the wild price swings can make it profitable whilst using leverage. But to make it grow, it needs stability. Regulation will assist to attract larger operators. On that note - larger players does not always mean price goes up. A few days later, Valkyrie joins the stage. Now this is actually a good thing, these types of investors have a 15 year fund vision usually. So it doesn't mean - they join the party and the price sky rockets tomorrow. Clearly... The issue right now is we have Mooon Cloooowns attending these blockchain/crypto conferences, it just shows how immature the market is currently. These ETF's are not designed for retail to make a fortune, their there for the Elite to take more from retail. You have muppets calling for 100k on every post. Sheep following along, just as I said at the top of this article. They want to reinforce their own WRONG belief. Or maybe its sympathy, "someone else knows how I feel, we can relate"? I don't know what it is to be honest, but it's clearly not healthy or profitable. The one thing I have said time and time again, is the beauty of Bitcoin becoming institutionalised is that it makes it less volatile and easier to read and analyse. The more regulation and solid foundation it has, the more profitable for day trading it becomes. Of course, it is not what the average retailer wants to hear trading their micro account and hoping to become a millionaire in one trade. But for Bitcoin to move beyond current highs and into the 100k level or more, it needs to establish a good foothold of it's current accumulation. I saw a post yesterday saying 2025 forecast price $925,000 - Now to give that some real perspective. At it's current All Time High, it had a market cap of $1.3 Trillion What kind of market cap would you get with a price of $925,000 per coin? Do the math and help me understand where the additional several TRILLION comes from... OK so now for some logic. People like Saylor have made publicly their position. Post available here So of course, with that much weight other institutional players will know the fair value levels without the research. Price can gravitate towards these levels allowing the accumulation weighted average to stand out like a sore thumb! Back in the day, I got introduced to Bitcoin, not as a trader but as a tech investor. Needless to say, I had a nice little run. Unfortunately as a trader I wasn't able to post due to some money management non disclosures around tech investments made. So it wasn't until the obligations passed I could post on this topic publicly. The obvious signs were clear from the migration from a fun thing and toes in the water of many angels and VC's - into a more tradable asset class. Fast forward a little and the re-accumulation only highlighted the involvement of much, much larger operators. I talked about this on the @TradingView show with Stefan and how the composite man plays his part in the more established markets. During the move, the re-accumulation showed signs of the control and the future direction as well as give a clear indication as to where the cap would likely be. Of course, it played out as expected and against popular belief we were off to the moon. I shared the logic for the drop. This was the first set of signs that Bitcoin was here to stay and becoming more interesting with each passing swing. As we dropped to the target level. Yes that too. Marked up months in advance... The next move up was ugly, so - what did that mean? Well, it simply meant again, we were not likely to see 100k or 250k or some arbitrary figure plucked out of the sky by people who have no clue how to do proper analysis. CASE IN POINT. We could then anticipate another capped move up, seeking liquidity. I shared why this would be the case back in August before the November drop. The expectation was for the price to drop down 3-4 in Elliott Wave terms and rise 4-5 before dropping on that liquidity grab above the old highs. Then of course, we did just that. Some other obvious moves started to appear in the price action and again just reinforces the institutional control of the Bitcoin price. So what is the expectation, as I have said in most of my recent Tradingview streams. It's a larger scale accumulation. For the price to break above All Time Highs, it needs to garner it's position. The higher the price you expect, the longer sideways we are likely to go. (although it's not as simple as that). I get sick and tired of price predications like 100k next week or 250k EOY. Don't fall for the BS. Take your time and do your own due diligence. Anyways, over & out. Take it easy! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Updated

Conspiracy or something more I wanted to post this post to get comments and thoughts of others here. Have you ever seen the film "In Time" ?? Imagine you switch out the countdown timer for Bitcoin, after all it won't be long and everyone can have them embedded under the skin. If you haven't seen the film, here's a CHATGPT explanation summary. OK so what does this have to do with trading or Bitcoin? Blackrock and the ETF's is a big play for Bitcoin, but maybe not in the way majority of retail seem to think it is. When you really stop to think - let me know your thoughts. Also latest Tradingview stream earlier. www.tradingview.com Have a good one guys! Well, as a long time cyber security investor (patents in the space also) I find it hard to believe the powers that be, can't seem to figure out one who created it and two how to regulate it and other crypto. It's a bit odd given it's an immutable ledger tech. So What I wanted to see, is what other people think - both good and bad, pros or cons, ups and downs?

by Mayfair_Ventures

Level up your understanding The Liquidity game is much, much easier than you think. Most people only want posts that align with their own beliefs, the reality is Bitcoin is becoming institutional and the more players coming does not simply equate to prices rising. Logic will tell you, these "professional money makers" will want better prices, the accumulation phase on this scale will have retail torn apart. Every $100 rally will feel like the time is now and every $50 drop will feel like the end is near. I've shared countless posts and live streams here, talking about the transition. Here's a whole new set of things to think about to educate yourself on the current situation. First of all here's one of the latest streams going into detail of some of the logic. www.tradingview.com In educational terms here we go. When price moves up and volume goes down, this is called divergence. Imagine you're at a party with your friends, and you see two people dancing together. One person is dancing really fast, moving a lot, and having a great time. The other person is dancing slowly and not moving much. This difference in their dance styles is like volume divergence in trading. In trading, volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded in a specific time period. It's like how many people are buying and selling stocks or other financial assets. Volume divergence happens when the price of a stock or asset is going in one direction, like going up, but the volume is not matching it. For example, the price might be rising, but not many people are buying or selling it. It's like the dancing person who is moving fast (price going up) but not many people are joining the dance (low volume). Ok so step one, there is a clear divergence of volume... Next I can guarantee some people will question the relationship to the price. Well. I used a box to measure 50% of the move here, just to highlight the obvious. Look left and see the level to volume actually peaked higher on the right and then dropped off, so argument no longer valid. Secondly, the orange line represents the green spike in volume that we lack in the current move. Third point; Look at the Weiss wave moves, again I have covered this in several educational posts here as well as many of my streams, if you don't know what this is. Go back and look through the posts. I often use Weiss to justify a 3 wave in an Elliott wave move. It can quickly highlight the obvious level of impulsive nature. Or in this instance, the lack of. Zoomed in and then over to the monthly timeframe. So what you need to understand is that with lack of impulsiveness and clear divergence, what else can you see that backs up the logic? How about using Oscillators? The monthly stochastic clearly showing overbought. And an off the shelf OBV showing sideways balance If you can learn to read these simple points, your already onto a winner. Many newer traders have strategies that often include RSI, MACD or Moving Averages and 9 times out of 10 it's on too small a timeframe. "If in doubt, zoom out" Combining logical arguments to figure out where you are on the chart can help you develop a much better picture, if you still want to trade smaller times, then you have a bias based on the bigger picture. OK - so next, let's take a look at a slightly more advanced view. This is CVD (cumulative delta); What does the numbers mean? Imagine you have a piggy bank, and every day, you either put money into it or take some money out. The total amount of money you've put in or taken out is like the cumulative delta. In trading, cumulative delta is a way to keep track of the buying and selling activities in the market for a particular financial asset, like a stock. Instead of money, we use something called "contracts" or "shares" to represent the buying and selling. When traders buy a stock, it's like they are putting money into the piggy bank. And when they sell the stock, it's like taking money out of the piggy bank. The cumulative delta keeps track of the difference between the number of shares bought and the number of shares sold throughout the day or a specific period. This image above tracks the numbers for each swing. When coupled with other tools such as Footprint levels, you can see where the higher levels of liquidity is sitting. Now combine the stages above. Let's recap. Bigger players coming in will want better prices. We have divergence on volume. Weiss waves lack impulsiveness. Oscillators oversold or show sideways balance. CVD levels still mostly negative. Footprint key levels have wider gaps to the next layers of liquidity. =============================================================== Now, what else would be worth looking at? Well. one tool I have shared many times in the posts and streams is called COT. COT stands for "Commitment of Traders." It's like keeping track of who is doing what in a big game, but instead of players, we are talking about traders in the financial markets. Imagine you are playing a game with your friends, and you want to know who is on which team. You might have a list that shows how many players are on each team and what roles they play, like who's a striker, who's a defender, and so on. In trading, COT is a report that shows us how many traders are on each team, so to speak. It tells us how many traders are buying and how many are selling certain financial assets, like commodities (like gold, oil) or futures contracts (which are like agreements to buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) AND of COURSE BITCOIN. The COT report is released by official organizations, and it's based on data collected from traders who are required to report their positions in these markets. Why does this matter? revert back to bigger players in the market coming for Bitcoin... just like in a game, knowing which team has more players or which roles are in demand can give you a clue about the game's overall strategy. When we look at the COT report, we can see if there are more traders buying or if more are selling it. This information helps understand the market sentiment. If a lot of traders are buying, it might mean they have a positive outlook, and the price of the asset could go up. On the other hand, if many traders are selling, it might mean they are not so optimistic, and the price could go down. In COT terms, there are two major players I look for in the reports. Asset Managers COT Asset Managers are like assistants for the big investors, like hedge funds or investment firms. These big investors have a lot of money to invest in different things, like stocks, commodities, or other financial assets including Bitcoin. It is the Asset Managers' job to take care of these investments and make sure they are managed well. It's like they are the guardians of the funds. So Asset Managers view of Bitcoin currently seems to be positive. Now for the second player I look at in the COT report. Leveraged Funds Imagine you a bank that allows you to borrow money. You then use that money to invest... Leveraged Funds are a bit like that. They are investment funds that use borrowed money, or leverage, to try to make bigger profits. These funds can invest in different things but in this case their investing in Bitcoin. Here's how it works: Regular Investment: Let's say you have $10, and you decide to put it in a normal bank. Over time, your money might grow a little with interest, and you'll have more than $10. Leveraged Investment: Now, let's imagine you have another bank called a leveraged fund. Your bank give you an extra $10 as a loan, so you have a total of $20 to put into this leveraged bank account. This means you can invest twice as much as you originally had! However, there's also a risk with leveraged funds. If the investments don't do well, you might lose more money than you initially had. For example, if your $20 goes down to $15, you still need to repay the $10 you borrowed, so you'll end up with only $5 of your own money left. The summary here is that larger investors use leveraged funds, so unlike Asset Managers who have a very long outlook. The Leveraged Funds element of the COT report is smaller timeframes but still a lot of volume. So, what is their current view? Whilst we have a positive long term outlook. COT would suggest we are not completely ready to shoot off to the moon just yet. I have really tried to over simplify the post here for the sake of education. There's a lot more to each individual section, but knowing these basics will set you off on the right path. Bitcoin becoming institutional is a great opportunity if you know where to look. These moves are far from random as you can see in this post below. Anyways! take it easy and good luck out there! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

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