It's a numbers gameI see this more and more, especially in the crypto space. There are some wild stories out there from turning $8k to a billion through to a Pizza for 10,000 Bitcoin.
Here are some home truths. Although most of you won't want to hear this.
You see, as a professional trader - there is 1 key factor, almost a scale balancing between too much and just enough. Everyone pushes for more returns, we are only human after all. We have had stories of Wall Street Titans and Vegas big wins, but there is some simple logic to this.
You might have entered the market after Covid hit the world and wanted an extra income, might have seen a way to make millions from the money the government sent you? The issue is this is no different that rolling a dice in Vegas but without the fun! You possibly saw some influencer selling you the dream - they fail to tell you, they trade on demo accounts and make their income from affiliate links and social media watch time!
When you think of investors like Warren Buffet, you have to understand - he didn't watch an influencer video and say to himself "I want to be like that guy" - investing is often a long term thing and not a get rich quick scheme.
Here's a few examples to hit home.
This is boring, not worth it - so instead you seek higher returns, that opens up the possibility of falling into scams, listening to the wrong crowd and having dreams. To be honest, it's probably more enjoyable spending a day at the races.
With a smaller account, you can grow it a little, add to it on the next pay day and of course compound the investments.
As you move up the scale.
This is probably where most "semi serious" market goers start. It's often a flurry into the market cash in hand. The assumption often the same; you have done well to amass a lumpy investment, your clearly good at the field you have been in to earn your pot. Why wouldn't you be a good trader? After all, these kid influencers are making millions on their demo accounts.
Jump to the next level...
Your either a captain of industry, you have had your own business or you have a kind daddy.
How you got here is not important, staying here is.
When you trade with a medium sized account you start to think a little different. Instead of looking for 900x returns, you start thinking about investments that are a little less risky. This is the scales I mentioned earlier. You are now in the space of a good return might be good enough. Too high of a risk, means you are thinking of safe guarding your cash.
Here's where the Professionals play the game differently. Trying to make 1-5% is a lot more sustainable than trying to land a 900x return.
You have to remember 90% of traders lose 90% of their accounts in 90 days...
This can easily be attributed to things like;
Buying signals
Following influencers
Over trading
Trading too small a timeframe
Trying to find a silver bullet
As a professional - you can seek smaller returns, spend less time in front of the charts and let your money work for you, instead of you doing all the chasing!
As the amount of capital rises, so does your desire for risk. You might still have the appetite for returns but not at the cost of risk.
As a professional trader, you can afford the luxury of trading a bias and scaling into a trade - you will find fund managers who have what's known as secondary investment capital (in essence to add to winning positions).
So although this is not going to be what you want to hear, it's what you need to know.
There's always chasing the dream, but why not wake up and make it a reality?
Enjoy the weekend all!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Mastertheartoftrading
Every man and his dogI have seen more and more Wyckoff posts recently, well - here's another one!
I was trading Wyckoff methodology when it wasn't cool. Unfortunately for the masses, it's not as easy as an 'influencer' will have you believe, from seeing their posts - they clearly lack the understanding and are simply joining the 'HYPE' club for view count.
A few years back I went into some depth on Bitcoin's phases as you can see below;
Here you would expect the mark up and straight into a Point and Figure forecasted level, which then became 'Re-accumulation'
As the price moved up, you could see as clear as day a nice AR move; I'll go into that shortly. But this was the sign of professional involvement.
This chart was posted on the 18th of March to highlight the BC (also cover in a second) Why was it so obvious? It was smacking us in the face with the fact it had it's re-accumulation phase earlier - although many said the 60+ thousand level was the accumulation. Point and Figure analysis had the range mapped out and as we neared the zone, the AR come into play.
To understand this, I have drafted the help of my good friend Chat GPT to explain this like we are 10 years old.
Imagine you have a jar filled with your favorite candies, and you really want to collect as many as possible. Here's how the stages of a Wyckoff accumulation schematic can be related to this candy scenario:
Stage 1: Markdown Phase
In this stage, you notice that the candies are on sale and their price has been reduced. This makes you excited because you can buy more candies with the same amount of money. So, you start buying some candies, taking advantage of the lower prices. Other people also notice the sale and start buying candies too. This is like the first stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices are falling, and smart investors start buying.
Stage 2: Absorption Phase
In this stage, you and other candy lovers continue buying candies, but you start to notice that even though you're buying a lot, the price doesn't go down as much as it used to. It's like the candies are getting harder to find on sale. This means that there are fewer candies available at the lower price, and more people are buying them. You and others keep buying as many candies as you can, but you start to realize that the sale might be ending soon.
Stage 3: Markup Phase
Now, the sale is over, and the candies are back to their regular price. However, you notice that the candies you bought during the sale are now worth more than what you paid for them. You feel happy because you made a smart decision to buy them when they were cheap. Other people who missed the sale also want to buy candies now, but the price is higher. You may decide to sell some of your candies at a higher price to those who want them. This is like the third stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices start to rise, and the smart investors who bought earlier can sell for a profit.
So, to summarize, in the Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we have the markdown phase where prices fall, the absorption phase where prices stabilize, and the markup phase where prices rise. Just like buying candies on sale, smart investors try to buy assets when their prices are low and sell them when prices go up.
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So now you got the basic idea of Wyckoff phases; this is still a very hard thing to spot. It helps if you have a bias and of course background as to where the price has been. When I posted the "Rocket call" in March 21, we had seen the Buyers Climax which can be defined like this; A major panic that occurs at the end of a steep ascent in prices. In its classical form it is typified by large range reversal in prices accompanied by large volume.
However to simplify this further; contrary to popular 'influencer' belief - Large operator don't go chasing 100x returns, their seeking to make money in all environments and often over a much longer time frame than retail would like. So think of a buyers climax like the bigger players have reached a target that they are comfortable with, the level of returns are sufficient. They sell off as retail are buying every little dip on their 15 minute chart.
An AR is an Automatic Reaction to either a buyers or sellers climax (for more, read the post below - Wyckoff basics explained)
Once we dropped to the 4 level marked up in March. The move away was ugly, it was low volume from the get go. Meaning a lack of overall interest (at the time) But under the surface, there was more to it. A lot more to it to be honest!
I covered the Wyckoff Distribution in this educational post;
So, we dropped "exactly as predicted" into a range that was measured only to rise on low, depleting volume. You would then expect a re-accumulation and the measurement for the extension is again mapped out.
Re-read the Chat GPT section above.
You see, Wyckoff can be useful if you know how to use it properly... People often say things like "it's over 100 years old, it can't work in these markets" Or they try and make patterns out of every move, clearly lacking the understanding.
As I explained in August 21 on the way to the current All Time High - the price could be plotted as the image above shows. Volume and COT intel plays a major part here, the sell off was going to be quick to the 40k level - why? Well, it was re-distribution in play.
And just like that January 22 through to May was also mapped out...
Once we got that break down lower, you could assess the Point and Figure regions.
And just like that, we are back into Accumulation. To the MOOOOON!!! ... Not so fast, as this is a much bigger cycle you have to look out for volume, what the bigger players are manipulating and assess the overall situation, being a bigger schematic it is likely to be a slower burner. Refer back to the Chat GPT section above.
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Wyckoff, Elliott and Dow Theory still works today as it's not a study of technical charts to be honest, they understood the depth of psychology, retail sentiment based on an individuals own mindset. I have covered the psychology around this in several posts including the Simpsons one! Here's a quick look at the cycle.
Now, place these retail sentiment analysts together.
You see, things don't have to be complex to work.
Zoom out and if you have read this post well enough, you might spot the next clue as to where exactly we are. If you already know me or follow my posts and educational content, you might spot not only where we are, but why.
Anyways, I hope this helps at least one person out there!
Have a great week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
23 year trading routeI was recently asked about how I got into trading. The follow on questions went something along the lines of "how did you start, what did you trade and so on. This got me thinking of many of the 'notable' trades, some funny events and change of strategies along the way.
I thought some of you might find it interesting?
So my trading journey actually started a little while before I started trading, somewhere around 1998. In school we were studying the Wall Street crash as part of a history lesson. Lucky for me, my history teacher was fascinated by the market and spent most of his time reading the times after giving us an assignment. He had managed to wangle a school trip to Washington and New York - big deal for us in the UK!
I was lucky to get a spot on the trip, so off we went.
During the trip, we spent time doing all the touristy things. JFK and the war graves, Lincoln statue, up the Empire State building. But the one key thing that stood out for me, was a trip to the stock exchange... NYSE
What a privilege, what an experience. Keep in mind, at this stage my exposure to trading was purely the outline history lesson of the Wall Street crash.
When we got home, nearing Christmas our teacher came up with a game. He bought the class each a copy of the financial times. We had to assess the double page spread and with $10,000 of Monopoly money, we had to pick some trades. This could be all in on one stock, $1,000 on each or less per stock and even more stocks. The idea was after Christmas he would announce the winner.
Well I won that by going all in on one stock. Vodafone, keep in mind the time period, Christmas and everybody's Santa's list had a mobile phone!
This got me thinking, picking stocks was easy!!!
So a couple of months later, I leave school at 15 prior to the exams and start out on my own. (Not as a trader) well not as such. Long story, but got into trading about 6 months after that.
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How I started trading, my father had an engineering company I really wanted to take on, he had set it up with his father and naturally I wanted to be a third generation in the family business. As I left school, he sold it. So I started my own, the issue was I was still only 15. So I would take my pushbike to the premises and on my way I would stop and pick up a 'times' paper for later. Everyday I'd read that paper from front to back, until I saw an advert "Trade stocks now"
Another long story, but I managed to convince my mother to come to the bank with me, my local bank manager to have a proxy account and there it began.
Most days I'd read the stock prices, noting things down and then seeing the price again tomorrow. As I got a feel for these little black n white numbers I would take a punt based on other factors or stories. I guess it's now what I know to be fundamental analysis. I often tell people I would by yesterday's price today as all I had was the paper. I'd go to the bank, the cashier who knew how to order stocks (only one as it was a tiny branch and I'm sure I was the only trader in town) She would note what I wanted to buy or sell and call the broker. I'd then get a physical certificate in the post a few days later!
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I traded like this for some time, only buying large blue-chip stocks; the strategy was simple. If the newspaper said something like "home development company growing" I'd look at last couple of days for companies in that sector that hadn't changed all that much. Buy them and wait.
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I did this for around 3 years, little buys, little buys until I had a pile of mail come through on Vodafone. It turned out they had sent all my info to the bank, my bank hadn't processed it and what I had was a pile of "cheques" Checks for you Americans. This was new to me! The concept of dividends.
If you ever read the intelligent investor or know a guy called Warren Buffett, you would know why this was exciting!
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Around the 4th year, I had a nice little portfolio, I was lucky and dangerous.
I saw another advert in the same paper for trading 'Penny stocks' I took this to the broker in the bank and she said she would find out from upstairs and get back to me. A few days later, she said I needed a W8BEN form to trade US stocks. Foreign to me at the time, I signed it and off again! This time, it was buying stocks nobody had heard of. The internet was now a thing for searching stuff like this. I ended up buying a couple of stocks, that after watching the Wolf of Wall Street - made me think, these things and this market was potentially the original pump n dump playground.
I remember one trade in particular "Clean Coal Technologies" I literally got the bottom and the top of the pump. In by chance, out due to an awesome broker. My broker called me and said something along the lines of " I was telling my colleague here about your entry in this little stock and showed him the chart, seeing it rocket I wanted to call you as I am sure you will be pleasantly surprised" We sold out there and then, less than 8 hours after buying!
The same broker got me out of a bad position a few months later - I had signed up for every advert in the paper, I had people phoning 24/7. One guy said put $5k into our managed service and we do this buying n selling penny stocks for you. I thought I'd take a punt, they got me in or so I believed, a stock - a few days later it's up 10%, they asked If I would commit more to the pot. But something felt slightly off, so I called my regular broker about something else - he asked was there anything else I was looking at? I explained this service "He said NO, NO, NO.
I didn't mind the idea of losing the capital, but despised the idea of being scammed - (possibly why I put a lot of emphasis on scammers and influencers these days). I ended up with a plan, I'd buy the next couple of stocks these guys recommended and pretended that there was bank issues with the next investment. As they would tell me things like "If you had only done it yesterday, the company we wanted you in has blown up 50%" The plan was simple.
I would use my trusted broker and buy whatever crap they told me. We would wait for the price to rally and then sell out quickly to recoup the initial investment. This worked wonders after a couple of quick in n outs, fell out with the guy after not investing.
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Around this time I was investing long term in Blue-chips, playing penny stocks and long term buying the New Zealand dollar interest rate. Look at this;
Vs
The thing was simple, rollover accumulation. Buy, sit n wait.
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It was about this time, I found out about Forex - I loved what the Penny stocks give in terms of fast paced action and volatility, but had very little visibility on what was going on. It was the dive into Forex that got me into technical analysis. Being an engineer at heart, I wanted to understand the logic, why things do what they do.
To cut that story short, I started off with all the basics RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands and Moving Averages. This didn't really go well, my stock trading kept things alive for me here. But I was fascinated by Forex. What I got to realise, was 90% of traders lose money, yet 90% of traders all using these simple tools. Down the rabbit hole I ventured into Footprint, Delta, DoM's and anything trying to find an edge.
I actually made a stream recently on the Delta and Footprints.
www.tradingview.com
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I spent a couple of years still stock trading and working up a plan to profit in Forex. My other business had led me down a path of technology manufacturing that led to an investment in a thing called Bitcoin this was 2011.
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At this stage I had been trading "Volume" profile and Footprints for some time, I had learned a strategy called Elliott waves and found myself in the Wyckoff pit. Kinda moved away from using volume tools as back in the day you would pay hundreds per month just to have a profile on the chart. It was at this time I found myself on @TradingView
My other work kept me busy on the tech side, I had a conflict of what I could and couldn't post here. During the same time period, I had spent some time with a good friend and we decided to start our own forex education company. This was all bums of seats, physically training people in a class room.
The strategies then was always seek a 3:1 RR, use systematic entry techniques and even If your wrong 50% of the time, you had steady growth. These were the good times, Bloomberg feed surrounded by screens, world clocks on the wall.
I remember spending hours in front of the chart. And watching E-trade baby Superbowl ads!
anyone else remember them? Go find them, their fantastic!
2014 - Moved to France, started to unwind. To be honest it's kinda felt like a 9 year holiday and still feel privileged each day. However, it meant that I stopped bums on seat training.
For the next couple of years, in essence de-vested from most of the long term stocks - added to the physical silver collection for the future. I made a promise when my son was born to hand him a key to safe of silver and gold when he turns 18. On that note - a funny story;
I had bought my first Bitcoin in 2011 and by mistake sent my grandmother the details of the transaction instead of my bank account for birthday money for my son. When she said she had sent it, we couldn't find it anywhere. I asked her for the details she sent it to. When we finally found it - it was for more Bitcoin with the same reference as my purchase. So again he can have those at 18.
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During the next couple of years 2014 > 19 I spent a lot of time on the other business, trading but mostly in tech investments.
When Covid struck, I had the time to unwind and using developers to build a pinescript code for me of a strategy/technique I had now used for years. This got me looking deeply at the market, Youtube and Twitter was insane, the amount of scammy people, influencers with clearly no clue! This is what led me back to education.
Think now, I showed recently how you can use Chat GPT to make a pinescript indicator with zero experience.
I spent most of my days playing around on Tradingview one way, shape or form. Wrote a lot of content as you can see inside this post below;
Jump forward another couple of years and still writing content, still trading FX and even have a book published in the trading space. (link in signature)
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I really wanted to share my experience here, although a lot of things I have had to jump over for the sake of the length of the post! It's been a good old road. Still using EW and Wyckoff Techniques with a blend of volume profiling. Also back with most of my days being on Tradingviw ;-)
On that note, here's the link to the tradingview show I did with @scheplick earlier this month.
www.tradingview.com
Anyways, hope some of you enjoyed the read as much as I've enjoyed the trip!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The Bitcoin Age of EnlightenmentOver the last couple of years, I have made a lot of posts public. These range from education through to logic for trade setups. I have gone into depth here on Tradingview to share the knowledge.
The one thing that really sticks out for me is the transition of Bitcoin here and now. Seeing this unfold on a new instrument is a first for me (not old enough to have witnessed the Gold move) How BTC is currently behaving and the whole institutionalisation process has well and truly began.
If you haven't seen many of my educational posts here are a few links;
Starting with Psychology; I really enjoyed writing this post and as many new traders will know all too well. There is an image in here that will hit home. (click the image to view the main post).
The post above has a lot to do with the overall sentiment in the market, sentiment is often the driving factor of major moves. Whilst you could assume technical analysis highlights key areas of say supply or support, Moving Averages or RSI indicators many retail traders love to use. These tools are only aiding the creation of that overall sentiment.
In this post below, I have covered every major Bitcoin move since being able to make my posts public. Each post you can click through and again all of the detail is sat there.
I have assessed the retail sentiment, using various techniques over the years and they all lead back to the same conclusion. Take a look at these;
Some of the calls in the post above have been derived from old techniques such as Dow Theory, Elliott Wave or Wyckoff. I have posted several educational posts here on these techniques.
Everyone is looking for an edge when it comes to trading, it's just sometimes the edge is right in front of your face. It's human nature to want to spot patterns, obtain something others don't have. Unfortunately, many start off on the wrong foot and stay down that path.
I've covered more detail as to the goings on such as Dark pools.
And side topics such as how to use Chat GPT to write pinescript indicators with zero experience:
It's experience, knowledge and more experience that has allowed me to pick out key stages in the markets over the last 20+ years. These levels are all pre programmed, it's a giant algorithm seeking liquidity.
Here's a call that nobody wanted; Using an Elliott bias to identify a Wyckoff structure. The top of the first major 64k Bitcoin had the writing on the wall.
This was as early as March...
Now skip forward, identifying the Top and the Drop zone in March. Maybe a lucky guess? Well, as I said - these things are 100% not random. Once we started to rise the August extension was showing why we would only just peak above old ATH's and come crashing back quickly...
I guess, my point is. This is becoming institutionalised, making it less sporadic.
Key levels are becoming more and more respectful, overall making it easier and easier to read.
I have talked a lot about these things above, had a great chat with Stefan at Tradingview on their own show; Watch that here. www.tradingview.com
Anyways, enjoy the rest of the week! See you on the next stream!!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The other side of the tradeTrading has this stigma attached to it, everyone thinks they can come and make their millions. The reality is, 90% of new traders lose 90% of their funds in 90 days.
I've talked for years about the negative side of trading (trust me, I've done this over 20 years) Trading is often perceived as a wonderful, fabulous lifestyle. Cars, yachts, jets and women! Probably fueled by films like the Wolf of Wall Street. But not many people like admitting to the other side of the traders lifestyle. Of course, it's nowhere near as glamorous - it sure as hell won't get social media likes or follows. But it's there and it's real!
There are a couple of main points that I want to touch on, especially for you newer traders coming to find your fortunes.
1) Trading can be boring! Yes, boring as shait. If you are used to having a 9-5, you do not realise the effects (good and bad) on having human interaction throughout the day. You might have a partner you live with, the family. But what about when they go to work or school? You are left with your own thoughts. Yes, this can be dangerous!!!
The issues can include lack of motivation, uncertainty in what to do, overthinking. On your bad days, you have nobody to comfort you and on your good days, you have nobody to share the excitement with! Joining communities can be a good fix here, providing you find a good one. This doesn't have to effect your trading, your strategy or anything else - but interaction could save you from the loneliness.
The solitary nature of trading can sometimes lead to feelings of isolation and loneliness. Without the support and camaraderie of others in a similar field, it can be challenging to share experiences, discuss strategies, or seek advice. Additionally, the pressure and stress of making high-stakes financial decisions can further contribute to a sense of isolation.
2) STRESS - Stress is a huge factor for a trader. Stress could also stem from the loneliness, stress when dealing with finance is an area where a lot of people suffer, traders and non traders alike. The issue is for traders, stress is often self inflicted.
Most new traders come to the market with a view of it's easy, fast paced, exciting and therefore have the perception of making it big.
If it was this easy, people wouldn't spend 7 years becoming doctors or lawyers. Instead they would follow the money! Come on, who wouldn't - Yachts n all.
It's this popular belief that usually drives traders into the stressful state which becomes the norm until they give up!
To counter the loneliness and try to make it big, traders (probably you) I know I did! look at indicators, try to take on as much info as possible! Which takes you down this path.
Indicators. there must be a holy grail, a silver bullet? 100% winning strategy? People waste so much time on retail indicators thinking they will be the one to find the edge. You would be better off having a trip to Vegas and playing the first slot machine you spot!
The next issue is - too much data or the attempt to obtain too much of it! I remember when my setup matched this below (if not more screens)
This is like trying to read 9 books at the same time whilst writing essays in 6 different languages. All of these factors will 100% add to your stress.
You might have anxiety when executing a trade, or feel the burden of stress whilst in a trade. Scared to see the numbers go red and too eager when they go green?! Yup been there, done that. So has every trader out there.
Stop feeling like this.
Creation of a strategy...
All you need to help combat these types of stresses, is find an edge. The edge could be very simple - from reading books, stepping away from the charts, viewing higher time frames, moving away from social media influencers. All the way through to mastering one instrument.
When you see indicators like the image above, what happens if two are in one direction and the rest in another? You start to argue with yourself, you miss good trades and you end up taking bad ones. This leads to stress and then you realise, yup your lonely!
What a cycle to be trapped in!
Now how about you flip the thinking here? Less charts to stare at, less indicators to confuse, more time to read, exercise or simply go play golf. Your edge does not need to be technical, fancy or shown on 48 screens.
I talked about this in the Tradingview live show the other evening.
Here's the link: www.tradingview.com
Sometimes less is more and this can combat the stress and golf is always a winner for loneliness.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Let's all jump inWhen you first start trading, everything seems like a good idea! You want to take every trade, use every indicator, watch every video and stream! Be like every influencer!
You get this feeling that you found something new, that you are the chosen one.
Unfortunately, it's for this same reason - 90% of new retail traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days...
Here are some key pointers to keep you safe!
1) Risk Management; learning to manage risk is key. If you want to gamble away your savings, Vegas is a lot more fun than the markets. Trust me, I speak from experience in both!
2) Create a plan that suits the type of lifestyle you have, if your working full time then scalping every couple of minutes is not doing you any favours. Take the long road. If you have time but don't want to stare at screens all day, then don't go scalping either. Not saying, don't do scalping or it's no good. Just emphasising, to pick your own style.
3) Don't follow influencers! I cover this topic a lot, people often ask me about Plan B or some other random guy. The issue is, these guys don't trade, they shill affiliate links and film 4 Youtube videos a day! They make their money by having followers and views. Just look at this below;
This was the message from the top! Where would you be now? Leveraged long positions?
This aspect has become, possibly one of the biggest factors for how people lose in the crypto space. You get sold a dream by following demo traders! Take our friend Carl, I called him out after seeing his demo trading on a video.
The guy is practically calling every top a pump and go long from here...
4) Follow the big players; not the whales, the institutions. When you know where their bias is, you have a lot more probability getting the direction correct.
5) Search for key levels; regardless of a technique - this could be supply and demand levels, Fib pullbacks, Wyckoff Schematics or Elliott Waves.
Don't trust only one, and please, please, please! Don't get lazy and just follow something you seen in a video. Do your own due diligence.
For example; I see 2 Elliott Wave scenarios here for Bitcoin.
This is the first option.
The second has a 4 where the 2 is of a move one degree lower. I've covered this in my streams.
It's knowing the logic behind the market sentiment that will help you figure out the general direction, this is why knowing the bigger players in the space is useful. As you can see from my post here - each call is on @tradingview
6) Do your own research to create your own plan, that should fit around your lifestyle or at least your current circumstance.
7) Repeat step 1 through 6.
These moves are choreographed, like you wouldn't believe. Don't believe me?
On the way up to the 65k all time high at the time; you could see the re-accumulation take place.
As we neared the extension levels, you could see the distribution sequence start. I covered this with a lesson on Wyckoff at the time.
These levels were already mapped out, months in advance of the actual move.
From there and up to the current all time high.
Why would it move like that? why would it stop where it did? These are the questions you need to ask, if you want to take trading seriously.
You won't qualify as a doctor or a lawyer after watching a handful of videos. You won't make it as a trader either if that's your expectation.
Finally,
Here's some logic for you - are we likely to reach $100k Bitcoin on this move up?
Monthly stochastic level would say otherwise...
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The whole Economy & not just BitcoinPeople want to know about Bitcoin, but do not know how other factors effect the moves in the market.
Take a zoom out and look at this...
What usually happens when you have a ascending move up? it's moving up with a hesitation, lack of conviction.
This isn't any old chart, it's the monthly view of SPY.
Back in November last year I shared a DXY chart (Dollar Index) That highlighted this key level here...
Why this level is key, is what we teach - but the fact it respects it is more the secret sauce. You see, DXY is often overlooked as an indicator - yet you buy coffee beans, oil, gold, cotton, even Bitcoin using the Dollar.
Where is price sat? Well, you guessed it at a key level.
Now let's use another useful indicator; COT intelligence.
Managed money is on the shift.... hmmmm.... hint, hint if ever there was a hint.
We also seeing some shorter term strength in the Dollar, just behind the Yen.
This is very small term in the grand scheme of things, but you have to note these if your wanting to trade your 15 minute charts.
Why I said this is the whole economy, it's due to the sheer amount of uncertainty and speculation at the moment of a recession inbound. So let's look a little closer to Gold.
Take note of both the peaks and the stochastic situation. Strength in the Dollar will weaken this.
If you didn't spot it...
How's about a quick look at Bitcoin?
If you follow me already you know, it's done nothing unexpected over the last 2 years or more, if you don't follow me - I have been in BTC for a long time, Tech VC and a trader of over 22 years now. This combo has given an interesting perspective of this market as it's shifted from a play thing to a professional instrument.
This above is a post (click on it) of the major moves I posted for each swing and the logic for why it will do it's next dance.
Your resident "influencer" might have been calling for HKEX:135 ,000 over 18months ago, moon shots on every $100 rally? But the truth is, Bitcoin is in a transition period making it more of a professional tool, this will and has already had some impact on the analysis.
Take a look at this monthly candle.
Again, not the stochastic and the time left on this candle.
Look a little closer at the weekly.
With the stochastic situation you would expect a little move up.
This is exactly what you can expect on the daily.
Now this isn't a run on 100k or even $1million from here. It's more like a simple Wick fill.
I've spoken about these moves for several months and the fact that we are indeed accumulating, no doubt on that. COT Asset Managers say as much.
However, it's not as simple as up, up n away.
Leveraged funds are playing the game.
So to summarise - if you see some strength on DXY, what would this do for SPX, Gold, Bitcoin?
And yes those extensions are pretty spot on level wise too. Respect the algo.
Simple logic.
Anyways, have a great weekend! Stay safe!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Up to DownThis is a quick idea to test something else.
Purely based on the indicator, I would like to see a dart up to red line and down to target box.
100% not investment advice. It's just something I want to watch.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Tradingview Volume toolsI've been using Tradingview for just over 8 years now. When I initially started using it I was transitioning from using Footprint tools. I would use techniques that in essence allowed you to see inside a candle. Coupled with techniques such as "DOM" Depth of Market and Cumulative Delta. After a while you get to see some of this stuff without the need of indicators.
Tradingview have steadily added various tools to the platform and with a little help from being able to code your own tools it's made it an interesting space to play.
So here's a quick overview on the abilities, encase you have yet to explore. This is not a lesson on volume as such, just educating you as to what the possibilities can be.
Most would have seen or at least know about the volume on the X axis.
This simply gives an idea of the happening of that particular candle, of course things can alter or yield different results based on settings and time frames.
we've taken the time to incorporate this simple volume in one of our own indicators. Which is coupled with a Stochastic and a few other bits.
It can also be used standalone for spotting divergence for example. You can see how the volume up and price up yet in the third price move up, volume has lowered.
There are also various styles of showing this volume data - one such tool is Weiss waves.
These are great in conjunction with techniques such as Elliott Waves and Wyckoff. I've shown this over the last two years here on TradingView and both of these techniques have been very useful on Bitcoin during this time.
I mentioned CVD the cumulative Volume Delta, here you can see this under the Weiss Wave indicator. Like I said, have a play around with these on your own charts. You will spot some interesting things once you get to know them. Try various instruments as well as timeframes.
More recently I posted a video on using Chat GPT to build a pinescript indicator. Here's the link to that post.
Well, I've taken that a few steps further.
What started as an idea in terms of using Footprint, X axis volume and then what's called periodic volume profile. I personally like to turn the bars/candles off when I got this on.
Here's another view - this is the session volume profile and periodic volume combined without the candles being visible.
This new indicator extracts various pieces of data and paints key levels based on my old trading style. As you can see today, this is showing like a magnet where the key levels in Bitcoin are likely to be. There's a bit more to it than that but in essence, its what I am showing here.
To finish with you have two other tools here on Tradingview - one which is fixed range volume, just as it says on the tin. You can see volume inside a range you determine.
I have used a low and a high here to find the PoC - Point of Control.
Then finally, you have visible range; this I tend to use less personally, but I know many people like it. This allows you to view the volume profile based on what you have visible on the chart. As you can imagine, as you zoom in n out, it can change.
Like I said, this is not a lesson on each tool - it's an intro to, for you to spend the time to play around with these tools. Feel free to ask questions below.
Enjoy the rest of the week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Using Chat GPT to build pinescriptThis is a lot different to our normal video but I really wanted to show the @TradingView community how you can use AI to build indicators in @PineCoders
I thought it would be easier to do as a video idea than a stream.
So I hope you enjoy & don't forget to shout out to me when you try it for yourself, I am keen to see what you build!
All the best
Mayfair!
Chat GPT indicator research I recently shared a video post about using "Chat GPT" to create custom pinescript indicators.
In the video, I just showed the potential for starting your journey off! Here's an updated view of the very indicator I had Chat GPT build in the video.
This got me thinking as to the possibilities, so I made a start on a new indicator. One for looking at "footprint trading" a technique I used to use a lot earlier in my career, in essence it's all to do with volume profiles.
Starting off I looked at ways to find key value areas using a type of periodic view of volume and then wanted to test momentum at these levels. I asked chat GPT for a couple of different variations and got a little stuck on the complexity. (not being a coder n all) So I asked for a little help from a friend @peterhammer, who I now call Chat GPT 5.0.
He added and tweaked, enhanced the overall idea.
So starting with periodic profile.
This helps spot local key areas as highlighted here...
As we move into a range - we can see the volume momentum clearly highlighted here.
This has been a fun first project with the aid of Chat GPT for sure!
More to follow!!!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin, crypto patternWell,
Here's an obvious pattern. Follow your influencer and get burned in the process. Don't forget to pick up your red bags on the way out and fill their affiliate link.
Common theme?
How about this?
I tried on multiple occasions to warn people.
There is post after post, after post here on @TradingView (all immutable)
Just click this link
Enjoy your weekend!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin what would hurt retail the mostWhat would hurt retail the most?
This thought has made me more money than watching the news or wondering what caused that move.
The concept of the "Composite Operator", A Wyckoffian term, and it is the culprit of most major events in the market. Composite man as I call him is able to manipulate retail and the overall sentiment. A lot of people will say these old techniques don't work, what about PlanB's model instead? $135k called over a year ago... hmmmm
You don't believe in composite man? Well this might convince you otherwise...
One more pop up, over the recent highs, could even be a quick wick up, but it would trigger so many stop orders and so many new enthusiastic buyers to sell to. With {insert influencer of your choosing here} shilling their moon calls. Demo accounts getting REKT left, right and centre.
A perfect psychological play.
See @Paul_Varcoe 's latest idea on this topic here:
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The phases of Bitcoin As @Paul_Varcoe posted in his recent post. Keep a cool head here, moon calls are back trending.
Take a look at these posts, since we started making posts public. If you want proof then look no further...
I had been buying Bitcoin for several years, as a money manager & tech investor. Seeing the move at the end of 2017, it was clear the transition had started.
I started posting about Bitcoin publicly and explained these steps.
Why this was a great range for the re-accumulation. This also giving levels for the potential upside move. Which we then had in the exact forecasted region.
So when the target was set -
You see, this was really the start of Crypto's professional shift, it was becoming a trading instrument. Thus making it easier to analyze each swing.
This was a private stream here on @TradingView explaining the bottom collection of liquidity as a pig ugly move.
As the price started to rally, many got excited - maybe a little too excited!
The reason I say this, is that there was already signs of a truncation of the move back up.
This is simply part of the game. Zoom in on the text, this was the 24th of August, expecting a drop down 3-4 and then a rise into the old ATH levels before crashing quickly.
At the top - it was again, written in the stars; why would it be Linear to $135,000 You know who I'm pointing the finger at. Think about it, we had a weak rally up on very little volume, how, just how was it likely to rally to 135k without any form of liquidity grab?
Then as we had our move down and rise back up, there was a defined pattern showing - the kind of pattern that indicates a re-distribution.
I took the time to warn the public about this but in reply guess what the main theme was? "Buy the dip" unfortunately.
The phases of the Wall Street cheat sheet are now beyond apparent.
Rise to fall
So as we come into "fair market value" regions - it's pretty clear we are where we think we are.
Yup - It's not rocket science this. I cover some additional info in this post below
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Easy Bitcoin, easier than you think. Don't get excited! It's not just yet.
But the fact it's become institutionalised, means it's so much easier to follow it's bias.
Back at the end of 2021; this chart was popular amongst Crypto fans.
The only issue is, it had ZERO logic backing it up. When a trend is established, it needs to re-generate to grow again. A second wind as such. Look how ridiculous this looks on a regular chart not log scale.
You see, at the end of a major rally - you would expect the price to be above moving averages. This is logical, price moves up and up and up. Guess where the moving average follows? It's an average that moves , hint in it's title. ;-)
Instead of giving a bias with extension levels - tapping liquidity for it's breather.
Here's a link to the post.
This is the outcome.
Inside these moves, is clearly defined logic.
They become obvious later on, but prior to the event. Just as easy to spot to be honest. You just need a little time to learn the process.
The next obvious move has just tipped it's hat. Patience is key.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin Wyckoff situation exploredMany people out there like to talk and share "Wyckoff" Information, unfortunately it's not as simple as people make out. Back in 2021 When I called an obvious distribution, it took a couple of months for many of the influencers to catch up. In the March, leading up to the first major all time high 64k levels. The market sentiment was "Re-accumulation"
So why was this not Re-accumulation?
Well, we had already had the re-accumulation; as I highlighted in January 2021.
Why is this far back important?
The trend is your friend as they say. Knowing the bias is key. Using these techniques you can measure the moves in several ways to get forecasted projections into the future. Look back at the lows after the 64k High.
Yes 28k levels targeted as early as March.
I shared some education on this topic prior to the drop.
And again on the way up - the signs to the current ATH were also written in the stars (well it was clear the logic as to why it would truncate).
Just read the comments inside that image.
Knowing where and why as a general bias, makes trading Bitcoin pretty nice.
The chart in the main image is another Wyckoff related technique, less discussed - but very, very effective. This is known as Point and Figure or (P&F) you can actually change the settings of the type of candles here on @TradingView
As you can see target levels were calculated from the last re-distribution and look at where we have the current price action...
Once you get a good handle on Wyckoff, it can be very advantageous on any instrument.
Stay safe and enjoy this crypto market!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
XRP - UpdateHappy New Year to all!
Not updated publicly XRP for some time, here are a few notes on this pair.
Back in the middle of last year, we saw a nice move down to create its first MP move.
This followed by the value area being used multiple times before a move back up to the MP centre above.
Although XRP has it's own playbook, with the lack of liquidity currently seen across crypto - it's closer correlated to Bitcoin's price sentiment than usual.
Keep an eye on indication from Bitcoin's data for any signs of a potential push.
XRP has enjoyed a dominance place over the strength of both Ethereum and Bitcoin of late, will it kiss and pull up or dip below? Well, this is where the SoS's will be key in figuring out it's next move away from liquidity.
We saw the first test back into the lower liquidity zone, in the early hours of this morning.
But as I mentioned above, the market will likely be driven by nothing more than Bitcoin's move up. Until we get signs from COT - more hand sitting. The market itself, highlighted with the red box on the indicator. Still clearly negative.
Stay safe & again, wishing you a Happy New Year!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
