How much will overbought Materials Sector Fall? XLBThe Materials Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. The trend has narrowed but remains upright since December 2016. The fund has been in a more specific trend channel since February and has created firm support and resistance levels. The fund is currently at that resistance level. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 64.9868. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels, however, the RSI has developed a resistance point of its own. The RSI has been reaching lower highs since December 2016 and is once again at this key resistance point. If the RSI begins to retreat, the fund should follow suit.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.4168. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. Like the RSI, the TSI has created relative resistance since December. This indicator is about to hit that threshold. Failure to substantially break above this resistance, the fund should drop in the near-term.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1174 and the negative is at 0.7410. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a relatively tight trend since mid-February. When the positive VI was last at its current level, the fund tapered down which ultimately led to a drop to the fund's support line (dotted pinkish-purple on the chart).
The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.2124 and D value is 87.3198. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic currently overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward.
The last three times the fund hit its resistance, it did manage to drop down to its support level in less than 12 days. The first drop was in January over 9 trading days and it resulted in a 3.62% decline. March saw a 3.41% decline over then following 6 trading days while April had a 2.91% drop over 11 days. These timeframes and declines could be blueprints for the current bounce off of the resistance level.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 23 trading days if not sooner.
Materials
Mosaic showing early signs of base completionAs an extension to our recent post on the US Materials Sector, we have identified 8 US stocks which we think could strengthen in the coming months. Of particular interest is Mosaic (MOS):
Mosaic is showing signs of base completion, as prices pressure the USD31.10 range highs. Improving studies anticipate a break towards the USD34.15 retracement, with scope for extension to the USD36.95 high of November 2015. Congestion around USD25.00 should underpin any immediate setbacks as investors adopt a buy-into-weakness strategy.
Materials Sector approaching critical highsWithin the US sectors space, we are seeing continued strength and outperformance (relative to the SP500 Index) in Energy, Financials and Industrials.
However, there are early signs of improvement now appearing in the Materials sector, as prices extend the break above the 310.18 high of August. Focus is now on the 327.33 contract high of 2015, and whilst consolidation is likely to appear beneath here, expectations in the coming months are for a break, as momentum studies continue to improve and our proprietary Tension Indicator (not shown) also strengthens.
The anticipated break higher will be delayed if prices close below 310.18, but downside risks are expected to remain limited as investors move towards a buy-into-weakness strategy.
A later post will highlight specific US stocks which we believe will benefit from this development.
Quantum Dots Are Making a Wall Street Wonder, What's It About?It's about Quantum Materials Corp. (OTCQB:QTMM) a nanotechnology company that can make copious amounts of quantum dots. If you never heard of a quantum dot you are not alone. The average person doesn't understand, know if you can see them with the naked eye, how they are used or what they even are.
Quantum dots are man made crystals 10,000 times smaller than a human hair, thus smaller than human cells. Their special electrical conductivity properties have generated a new class of semiconductor. These unique nanocrystals, also known as nanoparticles, are creating quite a stir in several industries because the technology applications are across a broad spectrum and you may remember the growth of companies like Intel, Samsung and Texas Instruments that were making semiconductors. Quantum Materials Corp. makes Quantum Dots which are the next generation of semiconductors.
You can't say now that you didn't have a chance to look into what a Quantum Dot company is about with return potentials like Dell, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. I suggest you investigate further Quantum Materials Corp - ticker QTMM and then if you decide not to invest at least follow the company developments. You can always change your mind later, just don't watch another life time opportunity pass you by. Life is too short waiting for the next one to come by. Remember by the time feature magazines and newspapers like Barron's, Forbes or The Wall Street Journal start covering breaking technology companies like Quantum Materials Corp. , the most potential for maximizing profit has already slipped past you and out your wallet!
Good luck, health and prosperity to you.
Bill Leigh Invest wisely!
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AKS Head and Shoulders Formation -- Basic MaterialsAks appears to be forming a head and shoulders or perhaps double top. The weekly RSI closed at 100 showing that this price is severly overinflated. I expect a pullback into 3.26, with support at 2.75, and then 2.50.