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Maxpain

EXPR - Bull Flag Print EXPR appears to be printing a bull flag this week and has been moving up nicely since the recent triple bottom in January. But could see a temporary sell-off into options expiry on the 18th later this week with max pain way down @ $3.50. Hope I am wrong. Indicators I track are looking good overall but the multi-timeframe Stoch is overbought and thus EXPR could see a brief pull back here. Good news is that bullish volume has been building since early January, and the RSI and VAPL indicators remain bullish and appear similar to the bull run that occurred back in Q3 2019 which led to a +300% gain later that year. Currently long shares and $6 calls with a Apr 14th strike purchased in late Jan 22. Will likely look to add to these positions if it sells off significantly (+10% and near/at/or below $4) later this week. The midline of the presented regression channels should provide solid support at ~$4.03. Not financial advice.
ELong
by Akksujean
SPY Max Pain 01/28 ~ 02/11 (2022 W4-5)This is a first elaborated out and attempted to be simplified as much as possible (so the same process can be repeated for similar guidance under the same assumption). Assumption: The week close (this could be literally the last minute of the day, so 'it not being there' on Friday afternoon before close doesn't matter) will be near 'max pain' - the point at which the most options will lose the most extrinsic value possible at expiry- and lose all options buyers the most money, while maximizing what the hedged sellers retain. While implied by some sources to be potentially malicious (though not explicitly so, whatsoever), it more seems to me like it is a natural movement of the markets and a natural result of mathematics + the "entropy" of solving for the lowest common divisor. This charts the next two weeks relative to Options expiry (because any further and predictions become needlessly superfluous at this detail). This is assuming a mostly sideways movement which ends at the expiries each Friday. If the price moves dramatically, especially so dramatically that it crosses the upper green or lower red bounding bars, then the chart is essentially moot and whatever backup hedge must be performed if I am not already biased in that direction. In this case, since the foreseeable month or so or two even from now are mostly upwards (445~460), any significant dip is probably worth buying into, but only if I still hold an opposite hedge. This is just in case I am holding 3-4 calls, and not selling any, and have 1 put; even in a disaster situation the single put can sometimes outprice all three calls if the volatility and crash is harsh enough, and at least get me closer to neutral. Other strategies with put credit spreads etc need testing. Because this comes with the express understanding that it is incredibly likely that the price will only move up to expiry in the last two or three minutes of the day , such as this past Friday the 28th (441 was the max pain; so a perfect close). I was able to sell and buy a put in the last 20 seconds while I held the calls for the next week. So even if I am incorrect, the put should easily balance it out; then I can hold the put(s) and have that as my max risk for further upside, even if I sell all calls. Preferably I would want to hold onto at least some, but greed murdered me in December, so careful I should be. Mostly for my own record and so I can see whether the predictions had any veracity, though the predictions are mostly for fun. They are not needed to perform the strategy. However, from here on, I will need to count the success rate of the predicted op-ex value and how far it ended up from it, and in what direction. That way, I can adjust my uncertainty. ~ Sofie <3
AMEX:SPYLong
by sofie4
3
3 green soldiers for NOVA tomorrow?NOVA has been picking up momentum. Nice falling wedge breakout, RSI is very bullish, increasing volume along with 2 strong green candles. I think we get one more green candle tomorrow to complete the 3 green soldiers pattern. Short term PT is $41-$43. Be aware of the quarterly options expiration this Friday though, Max pain is above $35 for puts and below $40 for calls. Might get stuck in-between until next week. Cheers to the free market lol.
NYSE:NOVALong
by chaseflores10