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MAY

Sell in May? A brief study on SEASONALITY (and stock picks)I am sure many have heard the saying “Sell in May and go away” in recent weeks. There is certainly a lot of evidence that May and the months that follow it do not have great track record of performance-- www.isabelnet.com www.isabelnet.com But does it mean BEAR MARKET? And are there any Seasonal Plays we could take advantage of? I think so. Some Sectors & Industries appear to generally do well (Gaming, Healthcare, IT/software) and others do poorly (Banking, Gold & Steel, Oil & Gas). Criteria Scanned Market Chameleon for Market Caps >$1 billion, Common stock types, with 7+ years of observations having good statistical success in May (I made a quick indicator in Pine to highlight and help visualize the returns of a particular month over a span of time. It’s data may not line up with Market Chameleon’s Seasonality Screener results for a # of reasons, so I am giving them the final word and trusting their data over my script) Market References Market Indices ($SPY, $QQQ, $DIA, $IWM) $VIX -- The BEST Quadruplets of May -- Electronic Gaming & Multimedia ($EA, $TTWO, $ATVI, $ZNGA) Good Sharpe ratios (0.92, 0.73, 0.49, 0.48) Good Average and Median returns (median: 11.0%, 12.0%, 6.1%, 11.1%) High % of Positive Occurrences (78%, 90%, 70%, 78%) Aerospace & Defense ($HEI, $KTOS, $TDG, $WWD) Good Sharpe ratios (0.98, 0.61, 0.56, 0.39) Modest Average and Median returns (median: 4.6%, 13.0%, 5.2%, 2.9%) High % of Positive Occurrences (89%, 70%, 60%, 70%) Note: $HEI.A is actually technically a better performer than $HEI Biotech ($REGN, $NBIX, $SRPT, $ALNY) Overall Industry is strong in May Great median and average returns Note: This was a tough field as there are lots of good choices and ultimately comes down to the size of the standard deviation Diagnostics & Research ($DGX, $ICLR, $ILMN, $EXAS) Great Sharpe ratios (1.22, 1.19, 0.83, 0.72) Great win rate Low drawdowns Honorable Mention: $CDNA scores great as well but does not have a ton of observations Healthcare Plans ($UNH, $MOH, $CNC, $HUM) Steady Eddy – low Standard Deviations, low drawdowns Returns are nothing to write home about Internet Content ($ZG, $IAC, $GOOGL, $NTES) Pretty middle of the pack against other quads: good returns by median and average, good Sharpes, good % of positive returns Packaged Goods ($STKL, $HAIN, $DAR, $BGS) High win rate- 80%, 67%, 70%, 70% Relatively speaking, drawdowns are not that bad to the Standard Deviation Honorable Mention: $FRPT is a solid performer but not enough observations to be part of this group Restaurants ($SHAK, $JACK, $TXRH, $CBRL) Very high win rates- 100%, 90%, 80%, 70% Modest returns, small draws Chart is condensed because $SHAK hasn’t been listed for a long time (though there’s enough observations and its worth including into group) but here’s the chart w/o $SHAK-- Software Applications ($BMO, $WBK, $CS, $BBVA) Incredible win rates- 100%, 88%, 75%, 88% Worst returns/draws are TINY- 0.0%, -4.1%, -2.8%, -2.9% Great Sharpe ratios Not a ton of observations, smaller sample size Software Infrastructure ($SPSC, $FIVN, $EVTC, $NEWR) Great Sharpe ratios Good Best returns vs Worst draws Specialty Business Services ($CTAS, $UNF, $CPRT, $GPN) Very high % of wins Good Sharpe Ratios Small Standard Deviations -- The WORST Quadruplets of May -- Banks, Diversified ($BMO, $WBK, $CS, $BBVA) High loss rates- 80%, 90%, 70%, 80% The worst losses are, on average, about 3.2x greater than the best gains High negative Sharpe ratios Banks, Regional ($BBD, $ITUB, $BSBR, $FFBC Great loss rates; average works out to a loss every May The BEST gains are very small- +4.9%, +2.9%, +1.7%, +1.6% compared to the WORST draws- -23.0%, -20.5%, -17.4%, -13.6% High negative Sharpe ratios Farm & Heavy Construction ($OSK, $CNHI, $NAV, $CAT) Small BEST gains compared to WORST draws- worst draws are about 3.44x greater than best gains Mediocre negative Sharpes, modest negative averages/medians Gold ($HMY, $GOLD, $NG, $BTG) Industry as a whole seems seasonally depressed in May High negative Sharpe ratios Note: don’t confuse the TVC ticker for Gold (US$/oz) for the STOCK of the COMPANY $GOLD Oil & Gas, E&P ($CPG, $MUR, $VET, $SM) Oil & Gas industry in general is a terrible May performer Industry in a general downtrend High negative Sharpe ratios Draw % isn’t terrific but the months that this industry gained are not strong Oil & Gas, Equipment & Services ($FTI, $TS, $RES, $CLB) Oil & Gas industry in general is a terrible May performer High frequency of draws High negative Sharpe ratio Chart doesn’t do justice reflecting the WORST draws for May- averaging the worst comes out to -22.5% Oil & Gas, Integrated ($E, $EC, $PBR, $SU) Oil & Gas industry in general is a terrible May performer Very high negative Sharpe ratio Relatively low Standard Deviations Specialty Industrial Materials ($FLS, $GE, $TRS, $XYL) High draw % in May Low Standard Deviations Steel ($MT, $GGB, $SID, $CLF) Very negative Sharpe ratios Big Standard Deviations High % draws in May- 80%, 90%, 70%, 80% Tough field to select 4 from- industry in general does poorly in May Telecom ($TEF, $VEON, $VIV, $TKC) Good negative Sharpe ratios- -0.78, -0.65, -0.62, -0.58 Modest Standard Deviations High % draws in May- 80%, 89%, 70%, 80% Industry seems in a general long-term decline Utilities - Diversified ($CIG, $OTTR, $AES, $ELP) Good % draws in May- 78%, 70%, 70%, 70% Despite general up-trend in Industry, does seem to do poorly in the month of May
AMEX:SPY
by chrism665
4
ETHUSDT What's next? Please see the call and put options!Hi All So there seems to be a LOT of bullish sentiment about a market recovery RN So lets look at the charts... Focusing on the DAILY chart here. *Ok main thing here is, we broke the daily EMA for the first time since March 2020 market crash, we are still technically in a bullish upside channel, but the thing is the MACD is still below the EMA ribbon and the RSI should ideally hit below 30, as with all crashes have gone below this level. *Looking at the resistance an support level we have clear support and resistances at *1550* AND *2450* we came down to 1760 and didnt break below this. * We have a VERTICAL TRIANGLE FORMED we use this to dictate our trades next... .. if we close above the current green candlestick we are one, and close higher, we could potentially see it up to 2450 straight BUT most likely we will see it close down, heading down to 1630 as shown. ... From 1630 it will test this level, if it close above we know we can long call option to 2450. This is my most likely scenario. You can set longs and puts as ive indicated on the chart background. Thanks Marlene
BYBIT:ETHUSD.P
by marlenri
BTC-Bullish movement detectedBitcoin price has crashed and yes it was terrible. An over-leveraged derivatives market that was already on shaky ground just collapsed and liquidated 3 billion in a matter of hours. This cascade has happened several times now, and may be a stark warning to the type of volatility we'd expect from an over-saturated, heavily leveraged Bitcoin. Either way, the price damage was immediately scooped up. The falling wedge pattern we are now in is a bullish pattern, once the price breaks above the pattern, we may call this confirmed. We look at the volume of the pivot point, which was huge. This tells us that capitulation may have occurred here, as Bitcoin moved from weak hands back into strong hands. The price was also strongly rejected. This creates the long candlewick we see at the bottom. Another sign that we may have our pivot point, a potential turn-around. We may not be in for a strong V-shaped recovery, as this could go sideways during the vast accumulation needed. We will have to wait and see. Either way, BTC price is a great buy opportunity at this point. Finally, we see our Stochastics has entered the white area and was oversold, at which point the blue line retraced upwards, crossing over the red line, and back into the purple zone. As an indicator, this is a buy trigger. In the long run, Bitcoin is absolutely in a Bull Run, and in the short term, we may have shook off the bearish grip on the market, but we will have to wait for confirmation first. What the Bear in me sees: Selling pressure has increased steadily, as buying pressure has broken down. We saw a high % of whales exit the market after just a short 3 months, selling their Bitcoin, which may mean that the longer term holders of Bitcoin, which have obviously shrunk in number, is a bearish sign. This market is now potentially controlled by new money, and we may see a repeat of this before it gets better. Take note of the 50 Day MA, which is on a collision course for the 100MA, a truly bearish sign if crossed, and the market would remain in the bearish zone for weeks to months. If price does not accumulate and rise, we will drop to the next support zone, which we will see intersecting with the ATH of 2017. If this scenario plays out, we can expect up to an 80% dip of Bitcoin from the high, meaning a price of $12,800 could be possible. However, this just works in our favor, as this extends the bull run, the bearish pattern is only momentary. We can look to history, and see we survived this very pattern already (2013-2014) and we survived. We will do it again.
Long
by Shwayze