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Mayfair

Mayfair

The Bitcoin Lotto Remember when the excitement of the lottery was all about the potential of life-changing wins from just a small ticket price? Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has emerged as the new frontier of that thrilling potential. Once priced at a humble $1,000, Bitcoin was accessible and brimming with promise. Today, with its value as high as $60,000, the landscape has undeniably transformed, offering new opportunities and considerations for investors worldwide. Bitcoin isn't just a digital currency; it's a revolution that's reshaping financial markets, much like the anticipation of hitting the jackpot. However, unlike the traditional lottery, Bitcoin investment isn't purely about luck—it's about smart, informed decision-making, historical insight, and future potential. Imagine being part of a technological evolution that's not just a game of chance but also a calculated step toward financial empowerment. When navigating these markets, you want to stay clear of the echo chambers. We have had tails of "98k next month and $135,000 In December" back in 2021. The main issue with the sentiment at the current levels, are it seems everyone and their dog bought Bitcoin under $20,000 at the exact bottom. They were also calling longs at 69k. It's an inflation beater, it's just had 12 ETF's approved, there's a price multiplier, sell your house and buy Bitcoin. It looks like Trump might win back the White House and of course, he has endorsed Bitcoin. The question shouldn't really be "where does this go" instead it should be "why isn't it there yet". I've joked a couple of times - If you bought a house at 69,000 in 2021 and now in 2024 it's worth 59,000 should you sell it or hold it, I have had replies like "You should have bought Bitcoin"... This is not a bash against Crypto; it's knowing the value and understanding the perception vs reality dilemma. The controlled aspect of the move up from 15k to 73 and that high being just enough of a liquidity grab much like 65k to 69k. Years apart, means there is a lot of control in an asset many claim "Cannot be controlled". The sentiment was all about Freedom and liberty; no institutional control, no government control - Go Trump, Go Blackrock. My questions remain, If you were lucky in at sub 10k prices - you have had a good trade (providing you profited obviously) Paper gains are not wins. But where does the additional funding come from for a double of it's current price? Why are we not at 100k+ already after a Trump endorsement, a halving, a price multiplier, 12 ETF's approved? The world of Social media has made it easier for keyboard warriors to catch every bottom, sell every top (yet never sell anything) and claim paper gains to the moon. Investing doesn't need to be the same as a lotto ticket. It just needs a good understanding of why liquidity moves the way it does and who's side the profits usually come back to. Anyway - food for thought this weekend! Have a good one. Stay safe

Long

by Mayfair_Ventures

Less is more...If you don't know me, I have been a trader a very long time. Nearly 25 years to be exact. Over the years, I have spent a lot of time studying a wide array of techniques, tools, patterns and market sentiment. Lucky enough, the markets have also been very kind to me. I've been fortunate enough to have two trading books published by large traditional publishing companies. So it's safe to say, I live and breathe trading. I am going to do a series of posts here covering a couple of key educational topics - starting with Elliott Wave theory. When it comes to Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a love hate relationship for many people. Some get it, some see it as not relevant. To be honest, both are correct. Now before you jump on the high horse "it doesn't work for crypto" - let me start by saying, this is not a lesson on how to use Elliott Theory. I covered that in these posts below; And step two; In terms of using Elliott, it's not as simple as trying to figure out each and every move. (this is often why, it does not work.) Instead the benefit of Elliott, is to accept it as a bias tool that aids in understanding the current market sentiment. We often see posts online about things like the Wall Street cheat sheet. I also covered this in another post here on @TradingView Where the theory has any real value, is simply to obtain a bias. The market is always searching for liquidity. In order to obtain liquidity, the market needs to attract players for the game. Now, you have probably entered a trade and felt almost immediately that the market has pushed against you, it's out to get you and the brokers are playing 1 vs 1 against you. This is where sentiment really comes in. As a retail trader you have likely been exposed to tools such as RSI, MACD or even dabbled with Elliott and Wyckoff. But the reason the market does, what the market does, is not to get you as an individual, instead it's there to collect liquidity from a crowd. Elliott wave theory isn't a technical tool, it's a sentiment tool. So instead of trying to guess every internal and nested swing, you can make an awful lot of money by simply giving a directional bias. I wrote an article in 2021 here - About the emotions, I used the Simpsons to get the point across. The general idea is to understand where liquidity is likely to be and use that to make informed trading decisions. If you have any specific questions, even topics you would like covered, leave a comment below. I'll add to this in another post as part of this series. Stay safe and wish you all the best. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

So...Against popular belief, it is what it is. unfortunately, it's not where people want it to be. People want to think I am anti Bitcoin, or negative to the cause. Again, this could not be further from the truth. I'm just one of the lucky ones in early and care very little what it does at the moment. It's clear people try to find bullish narratives especially when gone all in, but you have to remain a realist to make good money. Well at least over and over again. I've shared various posts and stream over these last couple of years and still not likely to win popularity contests or crypto influencer of the year when you don't have rhyme nor reason to scream for 100k with a silly face on each thumbnail. COT data still shows a negative LF sentiment - this is not big boys getting REKT, it's big players profiting at a premium (whose selling to the retail crowd?). I have spoken to some level headed players in the space; one of which was Ryan at Uncomplication and we spoke about why the options would be good or bad for the short-term. Kind of kike an "if this, then that outcome". As you can see from these options; option 1 and the preferred move would have been an extended accumulation phase. Thus giving enough fuel to take a real shot at the moon. I also shared posts about the interesting movements down low, prior to this move up. Now the issue for option 2 or 3 playing out was the limitations to the upside without a run on lower liquidity. So again, not needing to visit 12k or 9k - just to grab stops and cause serious doubt is enough in situations like this. You might have already seen the Wall Street Cheat Sheet; These things are as old as time. As option 1 didn't play itself (we did not accumulate enough) the move up has all the hallmarks of a larger degree corrective. Hence, in the ideal scenario; we would have seen a pullback allowing "fair value" to be accumulated, instead the CVD showed an existing positive position meaning profit taking up high. Thank you by the way. This move would have been on the cards & the chances are we could be. However, the concern and issue is this caps the upside on a colossal scale to a little over 100k before a very, very long term corrective kicks in. Still waiting on $135k as every influencer and their dog screamed for. Yup, still waiting from Nov 21, 22, 23 and nearing 24. The question you need to ask, is after 12 ETF approvals and retail screaming MASSIVE Net-inflows, we just had a halving and of course the golden price multiplier. So the question is; what's pinning it down? where is the lead balloon? Option 2 we talked about was if the price had created a classic ZIG-ZAG corrective move; 48-52k would have been optimal. The reason this was worse than option 1 was it means a longer time in limbo. Now option 3 paints a combo of the two as you technically have either a weak move impulsive up leading to a long corrective or a corrective B giving a running flat B hence another slow burner down before some real momentum can be had. I covered every major move over the last couple of years, now it's becoming more institutional it's only time. Just because retail wants 100k tomorrow, doesn't mean it has to play ball - especially not in the timeframe majority of retail want it to happen. I think the move needs a natural play both ways here; now we have massive liquidity sitting lower and of course a lot of eager, anxious buyers higher. COT is a big telltale sign for me. I also covered and published the move options in the book' So when I say, nothing has changed. It means since talking about this the first time - we are still playing out the worst of the 3 options so it seems. I'll finish with - 12 ETF's x Price Multiplier + Halving = WHY NOT $1 million yet? Take it easy and see you on the next post. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Bitcoin Bullish People seem to think I have had a negative view of Bitcoin, when actually it's quite the opposite. For one Bitcoin has been very, very kind to me. My first buy was in 2011. So first, let's get one thing straight - the desire for this to go long is there for me! But and it's a big Caveat I have been a professional trader for over 23 years. This side of me knows all too well what is needed for markets to move. Throwing words like BlackRock, Halving or ETF doesn't carry a lot of weight in the real world! Being sensible, for Bitcoin to be up sustainably it needs cause that creates the effect. Over the last couple of years I have mapped out "EVERY" major swing. Seeing the sentiment in the events I was attending as a money manager, you could see the interest - let's say the curiosity more than the intent. This was back as far as 2017, as we started to watch the transition to institutional involvement on the run up to the first major FWB:64K high. The fact it was this obvious, showed the intent going forward. As we had the next moves the rise to the current ATH and of course all the way back to 15k, the obvious move is a much, much larger accumulation. Yes I have covered this as well - at the time of publishing the book, The price was at it's ST - what do we need? well a move up of course. The assumption was we would rally as high as $32,000 region. During the rally up, Blackrock news came out and on pure HOPIUM the price rallied to $38,000; this caused retail to jump on the "Up only Bandwagon" but before you click off as it's not all rosy and bullish, take a look through the microscope. I explained the dangers of the fake run on liquidity What a surprise - well, maybe not... So, keep in mind. Cause and effect - the cause = giant accumulation, the effect equals up. But again, this does not mean up in a straight line. I am being honest and realistic here guys. These moves do not effect me, I sold out at the high and happy to buy confirmation not hype. Take a look at the COT data.. On the left is Asset Managers and they are buying long term positions. NICE! Up, only! On the right we have Leveraged Funds - these guys in essence make money trading against retail. (more to this than that). The issue I have is these guys are net short, which means as retail is soaking up the price on low volume, larger players are willing to sell to them. Here's a couple of snapshots. Daily Weekly Monthly the monthly pullback is only .382 (swing high to low) This has caused CVD divergence. Drop down back to the daily. More points for you to think about. So I will ask again, what exactly is the Bullish cause here? Blackrock throwing $15Trillion to make all retail traders rich isn't the correct answer. Blackrock will not be retail bag holders. Here's some 'real info' from Blackrock's own site. $3 Trillion covering all ETF's since 1993 - another point, there are currently over 1,400 ETF's. If you don't think we need a pullback, if you think it's just going to grind up on low volume, or if you think Blackrock will make you rich. There's a few home truths here. Know what's coming and you can profit from it as well as manage expectations and emotions. This book got published in May this year. The blueprint is there! it's clear and setup nicely. Would I short it, no I never short Bitcoin only sell my long positions. Would I buy more here, NOPE. Take it easy guys and just apply a little sense. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Top 10 books in trading As a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools. However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced. During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading? I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away. ============================================================== "The Wall Street Jungle" Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry. Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances. Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes. What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory. "Trading in the Zone" By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset. This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one. "The Wealth of Nations" Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics. In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society. For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit. "The Go-Giver" Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories. self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals. The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver." The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market. "The Zurich Axioms" A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management. The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets. For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets. "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side" Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies. In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly. I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books. "How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities" And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities. For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal. "Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe" A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets. The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles. If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say. "Master the art of Trading" By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible. This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques. "The Intelligent Investor" a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing." The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation. I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage. ===================================================================== I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Against the grain - Bitcoin Controversial. People don't like it when opinions don't align with their own beliefs. It's human nature, however - even when the obvious is smacking them in the face, they still want to reinforce and find support for what is inevitably wrong. I've talked before about the possibility of Government or WEF being behind Bitcoin. It would not surprise me one bit. It's an immutable ledger and all of the 3 letter agencies around the globe can't find the inventor... Secondly, people believe it to stand for freedom. Yet with the KYC and AML regulations, it takes nearly as much paperwork to own Bitcoin as it does to buy a house. (nearly) It's not like the FBI can seize it - oh wait, yes they can. Its not like China can limit the use, hmmm OK maybe. Binance will never stop people from withdrawing their own funds. Oh yeah that too. The issue is for me, is - CLEARLY there is an opportunity, even for me one of the lucky ones, been a Bitcoiner a long, long time. What does it need to thrive? well, almost the opposite of the wild west mentality seen today. Gone are the days where average Joe can own a few thousand coins. it's more likely that they will be spending around $5,000. Some of course more, a lot will have less to invest. Volatility means the wild price swings can make it profitable whilst using leverage. But to make it grow, it needs stability. Regulation will assist to attract larger operators. On that note - larger players does not always mean price goes up. A few days later, Valkyrie joins the stage. Now this is actually a good thing, these types of investors have a 15 year fund vision usually. So it doesn't mean - they join the party and the price sky rockets tomorrow. Clearly... The issue right now is we have Mooon Cloooowns attending these blockchain/crypto conferences, it just shows how immature the market is currently. These ETF's are not designed for retail to make a fortune, their there for the Elite to take more from retail. You have muppets calling for 100k on every post. Sheep following along, just as I said at the top of this article. They want to reinforce their own WRONG belief. Or maybe its sympathy, "someone else knows how I feel, we can relate"? I don't know what it is to be honest, but it's clearly not healthy or profitable. The one thing I have said time and time again, is the beauty of Bitcoin becoming institutionalised is that it makes it less volatile and easier to read and analyse. The more regulation and solid foundation it has, the more profitable for day trading it becomes. Of course, it is not what the average retailer wants to hear trading their micro account and hoping to become a millionaire in one trade. But for Bitcoin to move beyond current highs and into the 100k level or more, it needs to establish a good foothold of it's current accumulation. I saw a post yesterday saying 2025 forecast price $925,000 - Now to give that some real perspective. At it's current All Time High, it had a market cap of $1.3 Trillion What kind of market cap would you get with a price of $925,000 per coin? Do the math and help me understand where the additional several TRILLION comes from... OK so now for some logic. People like Saylor have made publicly their position. Post available here So of course, with that much weight other institutional players will know the fair value levels without the research. Price can gravitate towards these levels allowing the accumulation weighted average to stand out like a sore thumb! Back in the day, I got introduced to Bitcoin, not as a trader but as a tech investor. Needless to say, I had a nice little run. Unfortunately as a trader I wasn't able to post due to some money management non disclosures around tech investments made. So it wasn't until the obligations passed I could post on this topic publicly. The obvious signs were clear from the migration from a fun thing and toes in the water of many angels and VC's - into a more tradable asset class. Fast forward a little and the re-accumulation only highlighted the involvement of much, much larger operators. I talked about this on the @TradingView show with Stefan and how the composite man plays his part in the more established markets. During the move, the re-accumulation showed signs of the control and the future direction as well as give a clear indication as to where the cap would likely be. Of course, it played out as expected and against popular belief we were off to the moon. I shared the logic for the drop. This was the first set of signs that Bitcoin was here to stay and becoming more interesting with each passing swing. As we dropped to the target level. Yes that too. Marked up months in advance... The next move up was ugly, so - what did that mean? Well, it simply meant again, we were not likely to see 100k or 250k or some arbitrary figure plucked out of the sky by people who have no clue how to do proper analysis. CASE IN POINT. We could then anticipate another capped move up, seeking liquidity. I shared why this would be the case back in August before the November drop. The expectation was for the price to drop down 3-4 in Elliott Wave terms and rise 4-5 before dropping on that liquidity grab above the old highs. Then of course, we did just that. Some other obvious moves started to appear in the price action and again just reinforces the institutional control of the Bitcoin price. So what is the expectation, as I have said in most of my recent Tradingview streams. It's a larger scale accumulation. For the price to break above All Time Highs, it needs to garner it's position. The higher the price you expect, the longer sideways we are likely to go. (although it's not as simple as that). I get sick and tired of price predications like 100k next week or 250k EOY. Don't fall for the BS. Take your time and do your own due diligence. Anyways, over & out. Take it easy! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Updated

Level up your understanding The Liquidity game is much, much easier than you think. Most people only want posts that align with their own beliefs, the reality is Bitcoin is becoming institutional and the more players coming does not simply equate to prices rising. Logic will tell you, these "professional money makers" will want better prices, the accumulation phase on this scale will have retail torn apart. Every $100 rally will feel like the time is now and every $50 drop will feel like the end is near. I've shared countless posts and live streams here, talking about the transition. Here's a whole new set of things to think about to educate yourself on the current situation. First of all here's one of the latest streams going into detail of some of the logic. www.tradingview.com In educational terms here we go. When price moves up and volume goes down, this is called divergence. Imagine you're at a party with your friends, and you see two people dancing together. One person is dancing really fast, moving a lot, and having a great time. The other person is dancing slowly and not moving much. This difference in their dance styles is like volume divergence in trading. In trading, volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded in a specific time period. It's like how many people are buying and selling stocks or other financial assets. Volume divergence happens when the price of a stock or asset is going in one direction, like going up, but the volume is not matching it. For example, the price might be rising, but not many people are buying or selling it. It's like the dancing person who is moving fast (price going up) but not many people are joining the dance (low volume). Ok so step one, there is a clear divergence of volume... Next I can guarantee some people will question the relationship to the price. Well. I used a box to measure 50% of the move here, just to highlight the obvious. Look left and see the level to volume actually peaked higher on the right and then dropped off, so argument no longer valid. Secondly, the orange line represents the green spike in volume that we lack in the current move. Third point; Look at the Weiss wave moves, again I have covered this in several educational posts here as well as many of my streams, if you don't know what this is. Go back and look through the posts. I often use Weiss to justify a 3 wave in an Elliott wave move. It can quickly highlight the obvious level of impulsive nature. Or in this instance, the lack of. Zoomed in and then over to the monthly timeframe. So what you need to understand is that with lack of impulsiveness and clear divergence, what else can you see that backs up the logic? How about using Oscillators? The monthly stochastic clearly showing overbought. And an off the shelf OBV showing sideways balance If you can learn to read these simple points, your already onto a winner. Many newer traders have strategies that often include RSI, MACD or Moving Averages and 9 times out of 10 it's on too small a timeframe. "If in doubt, zoom out" Combining logical arguments to figure out where you are on the chart can help you develop a much better picture, if you still want to trade smaller times, then you have a bias based on the bigger picture. OK - so next, let's take a look at a slightly more advanced view. This is CVD (cumulative delta); What does the numbers mean? Imagine you have a piggy bank, and every day, you either put money into it or take some money out. The total amount of money you've put in or taken out is like the cumulative delta. In trading, cumulative delta is a way to keep track of the buying and selling activities in the market for a particular financial asset, like a stock. Instead of money, we use something called "contracts" or "shares" to represent the buying and selling. When traders buy a stock, it's like they are putting money into the piggy bank. And when they sell the stock, it's like taking money out of the piggy bank. The cumulative delta keeps track of the difference between the number of shares bought and the number of shares sold throughout the day or a specific period. This image above tracks the numbers for each swing. When coupled with other tools such as Footprint levels, you can see where the higher levels of liquidity is sitting. Now combine the stages above. Let's recap. Bigger players coming in will want better prices. We have divergence on volume. Weiss waves lack impulsiveness. Oscillators oversold or show sideways balance. CVD levels still mostly negative. Footprint key levels have wider gaps to the next layers of liquidity. =============================================================== Now, what else would be worth looking at? Well. one tool I have shared many times in the posts and streams is called COT. COT stands for "Commitment of Traders." It's like keeping track of who is doing what in a big game, but instead of players, we are talking about traders in the financial markets. Imagine you are playing a game with your friends, and you want to know who is on which team. You might have a list that shows how many players are on each team and what roles they play, like who's a striker, who's a defender, and so on. In trading, COT is a report that shows us how many traders are on each team, so to speak. It tells us how many traders are buying and how many are selling certain financial assets, like commodities (like gold, oil) or futures contracts (which are like agreements to buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) AND of COURSE BITCOIN. The COT report is released by official organizations, and it's based on data collected from traders who are required to report their positions in these markets. Why does this matter? revert back to bigger players in the market coming for Bitcoin... just like in a game, knowing which team has more players or which roles are in demand can give you a clue about the game's overall strategy. When we look at the COT report, we can see if there are more traders buying or if more are selling it. This information helps understand the market sentiment. If a lot of traders are buying, it might mean they have a positive outlook, and the price of the asset could go up. On the other hand, if many traders are selling, it might mean they are not so optimistic, and the price could go down. In COT terms, there are two major players I look for in the reports. Asset Managers COT Asset Managers are like assistants for the big investors, like hedge funds or investment firms. These big investors have a lot of money to invest in different things, like stocks, commodities, or other financial assets including Bitcoin. It is the Asset Managers' job to take care of these investments and make sure they are managed well. It's like they are the guardians of the funds. So Asset Managers view of Bitcoin currently seems to be positive. Now for the second player I look at in the COT report. Leveraged Funds Imagine you a bank that allows you to borrow money. You then use that money to invest... Leveraged Funds are a bit like that. They are investment funds that use borrowed money, or leverage, to try to make bigger profits. These funds can invest in different things but in this case their investing in Bitcoin. Here's how it works: Regular Investment: Let's say you have $10, and you decide to put it in a normal bank. Over time, your money might grow a little with interest, and you'll have more than $10. Leveraged Investment: Now, let's imagine you have another bank called a leveraged fund. Your bank give you an extra $10 as a loan, so you have a total of $20 to put into this leveraged bank account. This means you can invest twice as much as you originally had! However, there's also a risk with leveraged funds. If the investments don't do well, you might lose more money than you initially had. For example, if your $20 goes down to $15, you still need to repay the $10 you borrowed, so you'll end up with only $5 of your own money left. The summary here is that larger investors use leveraged funds, so unlike Asset Managers who have a very long outlook. The Leveraged Funds element of the COT report is smaller timeframes but still a lot of volume. So, what is their current view? Whilst we have a positive long term outlook. COT would suggest we are not completely ready to shoot off to the moon just yet. I have really tried to over simplify the post here for the sake of education. There's a lot more to each individual section, but knowing these basics will set you off on the right path. Bitcoin becoming institutional is a great opportunity if you know where to look. These moves are far from random as you can see in this post below. Anyways! take it easy and good luck out there! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Professional view of Bitcoin's History I have posted countless posts about Bitcoin, shared educational content many steps of the way. To understand the logic and trade your next big opportunity, you need to have a good feel as to where it has been. More importantly, why it has been there. So, let's start off with the why. I am one of the lucky ones, I first got introduced to Bitcoin in 2011 - just happened to be in the fintech space and a long time FX/Stock trader. When I first saw Bitcoin I knew it was interesting, but had no concept of the scale or the possibilities. Fast foreword a few years I started unloading throughout it's first real Bull run. Why? Well, as a trader I wasn't looking for lottery wins, looking more for good returns on the investment. (I wish I knew, what next) Don't get me wrong, it was an awesome run and ended up one happy chappy, but at this stage in Bitcoin's life it was too early to "trade" - this was more an investment vehicle. As the price rallied, my other hat was hearing other VC's and Angels talk about Bitcoin but with a kind of scepticism, yet a fear of missing out. The issue is, Venture Capitalists are more about wealth preservation than wealth creation. You could write a book on this topic! What I was seeing, is the VC's would look at other Blockchain based investments and make their decisions based on a simple ' is Bitcoin up or down ' After the drop late 17 into early 18, there seemed to be a different vibe in the family office, LP, more institutional investors. This vibe was one that kinda said "if it survived the pummeling, maybe it's safer than we expected". Now, if you think VC's are all about wealth preservation, the LP's (Limited Partners) in essence the money behind the VC's, as well as other types of investments. These guys are another level, it's all about longevity, long term strategies, these are not trading moves up and down this is a long term play with a tiny amount of their pie. (which is often still in the Billions). It wasn't until we got to this point, that as a trader more than a Tech investor - Bitcoin become interesting. I shared a post at the time explaining why it was interesting, this was called "Re-accumulation" You can click this post and go through to see it in detail. It was due to this playing out to the penny, the next stage become obvious. You see, many retail traders assume one thing when it comes to investing like this. That is Big players come in and price goes up. So many jump in, this is the liquidity for these bigger players to cash out. Like I said, as a professional I am not looking to invest $1,000 to make $10 Million. We are looking at 10x, 20x bank it. Go again... Knowing what was on the cards based on the level of re-accumulation just below and of course a factor of 10x from the lower region accumulation. You guessed it - DISTRIBUTION I shared a post titled "They Blew up the rocket" These levels are pre determined, on the @TradingView show with Stefan, I discussed Composite Man and the fact the market is an Algorithm, seeking liquidity. www.tradingview.com We then fall down to this area of liquidity which as you can see above, can easily be mapped out in advance. Now in this zone, you could see a real ugly move up - this give off the hint that the market was testing the water, checking to see what levels are interesting to various participants. As we rallied away from this zone, it quickly became apparent that the new top level had been programmed. Zoom in to read the text here. So, why was it only going to poke above the old all time high? Liquidity... Then Where? well, down of course. Here you will see we started changing the character and the next obvious move was on the table. Again, pre-programmed in. I shared in advance the logic here as to why it will grind up and fall through. These things are not difficult to understand, yet retail traders mostly have the memory of a gold fish. Levels are not set in stone, you don't get a break and it's done. the change of character is trying to tell a story. It's giving the clues. I've shared every single major move here with you on TradingView. Now what? You have a much, much larger accumulation move in the works. NOT SO FAST! One slight caveat. We are early, it's not done yet. Your local influencers, fake guru's and the social media universe all want one thing! BTC to go up. Blackrock's ETF - you think they will come in to make retail traders rich? Go back and read the start of this post again. Retail is the liquidity for us professionals. This phase is a very, very big one. On a 15 minute Timeframe every $100 will look massive. You really need to learn the logic behind such moves.

by Mayfair_Ventures

What you need to know about being Bullish!As a long time trader and professional investor, it's been awesome seeing the evolution of Bitcoin. It's a place for influencers to say stupid things like Bitcoin to 100k or 250k without any real merit or logic behind such a price point. Often the analysis consists of a handful of useless lines drawn from nowhere to somewhere of interest on the chart. To understand what Bitcoin and the larger crypto market is doing, doesn't take a lot. Especially as it becomes more and more institutional. I've talked about this for a long time here on @TradingView and showed each step of the way. These moves are not as random as they appear. There's a great book by Richard Ney, actually he has a couple talking about market makers and the effect on the markets. However, one little snippet he talks about how the market or a stock/instrument such as Bitcoin can be seen as a warehouse, think of the scale and number of shelves. Now think of the length of time to fully stack that warehouse. This isn't a quick factor... Now break that idea down further & apply it to BTC. If the market makers are the owners of the warehouse, who do they sell to? Well retail of course. The issue is retail simply do not buy in bulk. Once retail get the urge to buy, the warehouse stock gets depleted 'over time'. In addition the market makers need to stock back up. So for them, they need to buy cheap and sell higher. Trading 101 Over the last couple of years, I have shared a chart showing COT data, this is a US based sample size of in essence what the market makers are doing. The data is slow and clumpy, it's lagging much like all the other indicators - maybe even more so. However, that does not matter as all you are looking for is a general bias. You only need to look at Larry Williams who won the Robbins World Cup Championship of Futures Trading, COT data is a key part of his strategy. I've written several posts here covering the topic in more depth, but here's the current snapshot. Asset Managers: This image clearly shows a long, long term bias. Next you have the Leveraged Funds: This image is almost the inverse, we have a negative delta shown. Now in the past I have had people say to me "ah look, institutions getting REKT. Price going up and their short" What you need to understand is how this works. Let me ask you this "Who is selling to you in the rally" Well the guys who bought it cheaper. So here's the lesson: The factors for Bitcoin currently are pretty simple; you have a long term Bullish bias as seen by the Asset Managers . You have a shorter term Bearish bias of the Leveraged Funds Therefore we can look at some other factors. Let's start with a zoomed out view of the market - let's go to a Monthly timeframe. What do you see? Well, I see an overbought stochastic, I also see price moved up as volume fell down (more visible lower TF's). To translate this, the accumulation for the bigger picture is not quite over. Influencers think we are resting on 30k to rally to 250k next week. Unfortunately for their Demo accounts, the market doesn't think like that. Nor do the market makers! Next you can also dig a little deeper into things like Dark Pools again I have covered this in another educational post. As this is an educational post, let's put all of the pieces together. 1> COT data shows Leveraged Funds still have positions to sell 2> Asset Managers have a Bullish Bias 3> Monthly stochastic overbought 4> Volume doesn't match the move up 5> Dark pools... How much is being soaked up under the radar? In the TradingView show back in May, I covered Wyckoff and Elliott and a little about composite man (market makers). www.tradingview.com When using such tools and techniques, the price becomes obvious. Why up or down and at what key levels. Moves like this are pre programmed into the liquidity algorithm. Things you can spot from miles away. So let's finish on putting it all together - The conclusion would be, we are early on in an accumulation phase, we need to stockpile the warehouse to have momentum to newer highs. IF we go directly here we are capped - think of it like fuel in the tank. I have talked about this on several of my streams here. Coupled with the current view of the overall economy. This doesn't have to be difficult. I hope this helps some of you out. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Every man and his dog I have seen more and more Wyckoff posts recently, well - here's another one! I was trading Wyckoff methodology when it wasn't cool. Unfortunately for the masses, it's not as easy as an 'influencer' will have you believe, from seeing their posts - they clearly lack the understanding and are simply joining the 'HYPE' club for view count. A few years back I went into some depth on Bitcoin's phases as you can see below; Here you would expect the mark up and straight into a Point and Figure forecasted level, which then became 'Re-accumulation' As the price moved up, you could see as clear as day a nice AR move; I'll go into that shortly. But this was the sign of professional involvement. This chart was posted on the 18th of March to highlight the BC (also cover in a second) Why was it so obvious? It was smacking us in the face with the fact it had it's re-accumulation phase earlier - although many said the 60+ thousand level was the accumulation. Point and Figure analysis had the range mapped out and as we neared the zone, the AR come into play. To understand this, I have drafted the help of my good friend Chat GPT to explain this like we are 10 years old. Imagine you have a jar filled with your favorite candies, and you really want to collect as many as possible. Here's how the stages of a Wyckoff accumulation schematic can be related to this candy scenario: Stage 1: Markdown Phase In this stage, you notice that the candies are on sale and their price has been reduced. This makes you excited because you can buy more candies with the same amount of money. So, you start buying some candies, taking advantage of the lower prices. Other people also notice the sale and start buying candies too. This is like the first stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices are falling, and smart investors start buying. Stage 2: Absorption Phase In this stage, you and other candy lovers continue buying candies, but you start to notice that even though you're buying a lot, the price doesn't go down as much as it used to. It's like the candies are getting harder to find on sale. This means that there are fewer candies available at the lower price, and more people are buying them. You and others keep buying as many candies as you can, but you start to realize that the sale might be ending soon. Stage 3: Markup Phase Now, the sale is over, and the candies are back to their regular price. However, you notice that the candies you bought during the sale are now worth more than what you paid for them. You feel happy because you made a smart decision to buy them when they were cheap. Other people who missed the sale also want to buy candies now, but the price is higher. You may decide to sell some of your candies at a higher price to those who want them. This is like the third stage in Wyckoff accumulation, where prices start to rise, and the smart investors who bought earlier can sell for a profit. So, to summarize, in the Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we have the markdown phase where prices fall, the absorption phase where prices stabilize, and the markup phase where prices rise. Just like buying candies on sale, smart investors try to buy assets when their prices are low and sell them when prices go up. ===================================================================== So now you got the basic idea of Wyckoff phases; this is still a very hard thing to spot. It helps if you have a bias and of course background as to where the price has been. When I posted the "Rocket call" in March 21, we had seen the Buyers Climax which can be defined like this; A major panic that occurs at the end of a steep ascent in prices. In its classical form it is typified by large range reversal in prices accompanied by large volume. However to simplify this further; contrary to popular 'influencer' belief - Large operator don't go chasing 100x returns, their seeking to make money in all environments and often over a much longer time frame than retail would like. So think of a buyers climax like the bigger players have reached a target that they are comfortable with, the level of returns are sufficient. They sell off as retail are buying every little dip on their 15 minute chart. An AR is an Automatic Reaction to either a buyers or sellers climax (for more, read the post below - Wyckoff basics explained) Once we dropped to the 4 level marked up in March. The move away was ugly, it was low volume from the get go. Meaning a lack of overall interest (at the time) But under the surface, there was more to it. A lot more to it to be honest! I covered the Wyckoff Distribution in this educational post; So, we dropped "exactly as predicted" into a range that was measured only to rise on low, depleting volume. You would then expect a re-accumulation and the measurement for the extension is again mapped out. Re-read the Chat GPT section above. You see, Wyckoff can be useful if you know how to use it properly... People often say things like "it's over 100 years old, it can't work in these markets" Or they try and make patterns out of every move, clearly lacking the understanding. As I explained in August 21 on the way to the current All Time High - the price could be plotted as the image above shows. Volume and COT intel plays a major part here, the sell off was going to be quick to the 40k level - why? Well, it was re-distribution in play. And just like that January 22 through to May was also mapped out... Once we got that break down lower, you could assess the Point and Figure regions. And just like that, we are back into Accumulation. To the MOOOOON!!! ... Not so fast, as this is a much bigger cycle you have to look out for volume, what the bigger players are manipulating and assess the overall situation, being a bigger schematic it is likely to be a slower burner. Refer back to the Chat GPT section above. ======================================================================== Wyckoff, Elliott and Dow Theory still works today as it's not a study of technical charts to be honest, they understood the depth of psychology, retail sentiment based on an individuals own mindset. I have covered the psychology around this in several posts including the Simpsons one! Here's a quick look at the cycle. Now, place these retail sentiment analysts together. You see, things don't have to be complex to work. Zoom out and if you have read this post well enough, you might spot the next clue as to where exactly we are. If you already know me or follow my posts and educational content, you might spot not only where we are, but why. Anyways, I hope this helps at least one person out there! Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

23 year trading route I was recently asked about how I got into trading. The follow on questions went something along the lines of "how did you start, what did you trade and so on. This got me thinking of many of the 'notable' trades, some funny events and change of strategies along the way. I thought some of you might find it interesting? So my trading journey actually started a little while before I started trading, somewhere around 1998. In school we were studying the Wall Street crash as part of a history lesson. Lucky for me, my history teacher was fascinated by the market and spent most of his time reading the times after giving us an assignment. He had managed to wangle a school trip to Washington and New York - big deal for us in the UK! I was lucky to get a spot on the trip, so off we went. During the trip, we spent time doing all the touristy things. JFK and the war graves, Lincoln statue, up the Empire State building. But the one key thing that stood out for me, was a trip to the stock exchange... NYSE What a privilege, what an experience. Keep in mind, at this stage my exposure to trading was purely the outline history lesson of the Wall Street crash. When we got home, nearing Christmas our teacher came up with a game. He bought the class each a copy of the financial times. We had to assess the double page spread and with $10,000 of Monopoly money, we had to pick some trades. This could be all in on one stock, $1,000 on each or less per stock and even more stocks. The idea was after Christmas he would announce the winner. Well I won that by going all in on one stock. Vodafone, keep in mind the time period, Christmas and everybody's Santa's list had a mobile phone! This got me thinking, picking stocks was easy!!! So a couple of months later, I leave school at 15 prior to the exams and start out on my own. (Not as a trader) well not as such. Long story, but got into trading about 6 months after that. ======================================================================= How I started trading, my father had an engineering company I really wanted to take on, he had set it up with his father and naturally I wanted to be a third generation in the family business. As I left school, he sold it. So I started my own, the issue was I was still only 15. So I would take my pushbike to the premises and on my way I would stop and pick up a 'times' paper for later. Everyday I'd read that paper from front to back, until I saw an advert "Trade stocks now" Another long story, but I managed to convince my mother to come to the bank with me, my local bank manager to have a proxy account and there it began. Most days I'd read the stock prices, noting things down and then seeing the price again tomorrow. As I got a feel for these little black n white numbers I would take a punt based on other factors or stories. I guess it's now what I know to be fundamental analysis. I often tell people I would by yesterday's price today as all I had was the paper. I'd go to the bank, the cashier who knew how to order stocks (only one as it was a tiny branch and I'm sure I was the only trader in town) She would note what I wanted to buy or sell and call the broker. I'd then get a physical certificate in the post a few days later! ============================================================================= I traded like this for some time, only buying large blue-chip stocks; the strategy was simple. If the newspaper said something like "home development company growing" I'd look at last couple of days for companies in that sector that hadn't changed all that much. Buy them and wait. ============================================================================= I did this for around 3 years, little buys, little buys until I had a pile of mail come through on Vodafone. It turned out they had sent all my info to the bank, my bank hadn't processed it and what I had was a pile of "cheques" Checks for you Americans. This was new to me! The concept of dividends. If you ever read the intelligent investor or know a guy called Warren Buffett, you would know why this was exciting! ============================================================================= Around the 4th year, I had a nice little portfolio, I was lucky and dangerous. I saw another advert in the same paper for trading 'Penny stocks' I took this to the broker in the bank and she said she would find out from upstairs and get back to me. A few days later, she said I needed a W8BEN form to trade US stocks. Foreign to me at the time, I signed it and off again! This time, it was buying stocks nobody had heard of. The internet was now a thing for searching stuff like this. I ended up buying a couple of stocks, that after watching the Wolf of Wall Street - made me think, these things and this market was potentially the original pump n dump playground. I remember one trade in particular "Clean Coal Technologies" I literally got the bottom and the top of the pump. In by chance, out due to an awesome broker. My broker called me and said something along the lines of " I was telling my colleague here about your entry in this little stock and showed him the chart, seeing it rocket I wanted to call you as I am sure you will be pleasantly surprised" We sold out there and then, less than 8 hours after buying! The same broker got me out of a bad position a few months later - I had signed up for every advert in the paper, I had people phoning 24/7. One guy said put $5k into our managed service and we do this buying n selling penny stocks for you. I thought I'd take a punt, they got me in or so I believed, a stock - a few days later it's up 10%, they asked If I would commit more to the pot. But something felt slightly off, so I called my regular broker about something else - he asked was there anything else I was looking at? I explained this service "He said NO, NO, NO. I didn't mind the idea of losing the capital, but despised the idea of being scammed - (possibly why I put a lot of emphasis on scammers and influencers these days). I ended up with a plan, I'd buy the next couple of stocks these guys recommended and pretended that there was bank issues with the next investment. As they would tell me things like "If you had only done it yesterday, the company we wanted you in has blown up 50%" The plan was simple. I would use my trusted broker and buy whatever crap they told me. We would wait for the price to rally and then sell out quickly to recoup the initial investment. This worked wonders after a couple of quick in n outs, fell out with the guy after not investing. ============================================================================= Around this time I was investing long term in Blue-chips, playing penny stocks and long term buying the New Zealand dollar interest rate. Look at this; Vs The thing was simple, rollover accumulation. Buy, sit n wait. ======================================================================== It was about this time, I found out about Forex - I loved what the Penny stocks give in terms of fast paced action and volatility, but had very little visibility on what was going on. It was the dive into Forex that got me into technical analysis. Being an engineer at heart, I wanted to understand the logic, why things do what they do. To cut that story short, I started off with all the basics RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands and Moving Averages. This didn't really go well, my stock trading kept things alive for me here. But I was fascinated by Forex. What I got to realise, was 90% of traders lose money, yet 90% of traders all using these simple tools. Down the rabbit hole I ventured into Footprint, Delta, DoM's and anything trying to find an edge. I actually made a stream recently on the Delta and Footprints. www.tradingview.com ====================================================================== I spent a couple of years still stock trading and working up a plan to profit in Forex. My other business had led me down a path of technology manufacturing that led to an investment in a thing called Bitcoin this was 2011. ====================================================================== At this stage I had been trading "Volume" profile and Footprints for some time, I had learned a strategy called Elliott waves and found myself in the Wyckoff pit. Kinda moved away from using volume tools as back in the day you would pay hundreds per month just to have a profile on the chart. It was at this time I found myself on @TradingView My other work kept me busy on the tech side, I had a conflict of what I could and couldn't post here. During the same time period, I had spent some time with a good friend and we decided to start our own forex education company. This was all bums of seats, physically training people in a class room. The strategies then was always seek a 3:1 RR, use systematic entry techniques and even If your wrong 50% of the time, you had steady growth. These were the good times, Bloomberg feed surrounded by screens, world clocks on the wall. I remember spending hours in front of the chart. And watching E-trade baby Superbowl ads! anyone else remember them? Go find them, their fantastic! 2014 - Moved to France, started to unwind. To be honest it's kinda felt like a 9 year holiday and still feel privileged each day. However, it meant that I stopped bums on seat training. For the next couple of years, in essence de-vested from most of the long term stocks - added to the physical silver collection for the future. I made a promise when my son was born to hand him a key to safe of silver and gold when he turns 18. On that note - a funny story; I had bought my first Bitcoin in 2011 and by mistake sent my grandmother the details of the transaction instead of my bank account for birthday money for my son. When she said she had sent it, we couldn't find it anywhere. I asked her for the details she sent it to. When we finally found it - it was for more Bitcoin with the same reference as my purchase. So again he can have those at 18. =========================================================================== During the next couple of years 2014 > 19 I spent a lot of time on the other business, trading but mostly in tech investments. When Covid struck, I had the time to unwind and using developers to build a pinescript code for me of a strategy/technique I had now used for years. This got me looking deeply at the market, Youtube and Twitter was insane, the amount of scammy people, influencers with clearly no clue! This is what led me back to education. Think now, I showed recently how you can use Chat GPT to make a pinescript indicator with zero experience. I spent most of my days playing around on Tradingview one way, shape or form. Wrote a lot of content as you can see inside this post below; Jump forward another couple of years and still writing content, still trading FX and even have a book published in the trading space. (link in signature) ============================================================================== I really wanted to share my experience here, although a lot of things I have had to jump over for the sake of the length of the post! It's been a good old road. Still using EW and Wyckoff Techniques with a blend of volume profiling. Also back with most of my days being on Tradingviw ;-) On that note, here's the link to the tradingview show I did with @scheplick earlier this month. www.tradingview.com Anyways, hope some of you enjoyed the read as much as I've enjoyed the trip! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Hey Siri, why is NVIDIA Mooning?The simple answer is AI. Amongst other things, but currently AI is the latest Buzzword on everyone's lips! I recently posted a stream on how you can use chat GPT to make a pinescript indicator (see below) There are so many possibilities with AI and we are still early, very early! NVIDIA stock closed near a trillion-dollar market value this week as shares surged 25% following a better than expected earnings report from an artificial intelligence boom globally. This puts NVIDIA at around 160% plus on the year in terms of it's stock price. This in turn attracts late comers to the party. Of course, they were already on the up n up from growth since the Pandemic. The Covid outbreak and lockdowns around the world meant gaming took off in a big way. Cloud adoption surged and crypto enthusiasts turned to its chips for mining coins. To make things 'better' Goldman Sachs analysts now estimate that U.S. investment in AI could approach 1% of the country's economic output by 2030. All green lights for AI and NVIDIA. But the reason this tech company, more than others right now is soaring? Well, did you know??? The large computers that process data and power generative AI run on powerful chips called graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia produces about 80% of GPUs, according to analysts. What else is there to know? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

The phases of Bitcoin As @Paul_Varcoe posted in his recent post. Keep a cool head here, moon calls are back trending. Take a look at these posts, since we started making posts public. If you want proof then look no further... I had been buying Bitcoin for several years, as a money manager & tech investor. Seeing the move at the end of 2017, it was clear the transition had started. I started posting about Bitcoin publicly and explained these steps. Why this was a great range for the re-accumulation. This also giving levels for the potential upside move. Which we then had in the exact forecasted region. So when the target was set - You see, this was really the start of Crypto's professional shift, it was becoming a trading instrument. Thus making it easier to analyze each swing. This was a private stream here on @TradingView explaining the bottom collection of liquidity as a pig ugly move. As the price started to rally, many got excited - maybe a little too excited! The reason I say this, is that there was already signs of a truncation of the move back up. This is simply part of the game. Zoom in on the text, this was the 24th of August, expecting a drop down 3-4 and then a rise into the old ATH levels before crashing quickly. At the top - it was again, written in the stars; why would it be Linear to $135,000 You know who I'm pointing the finger at. Think about it, we had a weak rally up on very little volume, how, just how was it likely to rally to 135k without any form of liquidity grab? Then as we had our move down and rise back up, there was a defined pattern showing - the kind of pattern that indicates a re-distribution. I took the time to warn the public about this but in reply guess what the main theme was? "Buy the dip" unfortunately. The phases of the Wall Street cheat sheet are now beyond apparent. Rise to fall So as we come into "fair market value" regions - it's pretty clear we are where we think we are. Yup - It's not rocket science this. I cover some additional info in this post below Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Bitcoin Wyckoff situation explored Many people out there like to talk and share "Wyckoff" Information, unfortunately it's not as simple as people make out. Back in 2021 When I called an obvious distribution, it took a couple of months for many of the influencers to catch up. In the March, leading up to the first major all time high 64k levels. The market sentiment was "Re-accumulation" So why was this not Re-accumulation? Well, we had already had the re-accumulation; as I highlighted in January 2021. Why is this far back important? The trend is your friend as they say. Knowing the bias is key. Using these techniques you can measure the moves in several ways to get forecasted projections into the future. Look back at the lows after the 64k High. Yes 28k levels targeted as early as March. I shared some education on this topic prior to the drop. And again on the way up - the signs to the current ATH were also written in the stars (well it was clear the logic as to why it would truncate). Just read the comments inside that image. Knowing where and why as a general bias, makes trading Bitcoin pretty nice. The chart in the main image is another Wyckoff related technique, less discussed - but very, very effective. This is known as Point and Figure or (P&F) you can actually change the settings of the type of candles here on @TradingView As you can see target levels were calculated from the last re-distribution and look at where we have the current price action... Once you get a good handle on Wyckoff, it can be very advantageous on any instrument. Stay safe and enjoy this crypto market! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Average Joe - Bitcoin anyone? I recently published a post about the "Wall Street cheat sheet" You can see this play out even over the smaller TF's per Elliott wave cycle. It's all to do with the market sentiment and traders psychology. Us humans, try and find patterns in everything. Whales in the clouds, levels on the charts, even faces in coffee. What you have to appreciate is why these emerge, there's no voodoo or mythical reasoning behind such things. It's often just humans trying to make sense of something the brain fails to understand. I have put together several posts over the last 18 months, some to do with calls up and down, back up again and then down. But that's not the point, the real value is for traders to come to these conclusions on their own. Many of my educational posts can be found throughout my profile here on Tradingview. Some of relevance - The Simpsons one, was all about this Wall Street cheat sheet and digging a little deeper into the emotions. I also talked about why the masses have come to crypto; When you start to piece this together, you will quickly realise - that the larger operators in the market, simply understand the psychology which is driven by retail sentiment. This particular post was all about why I was calling the rocket call - whilst the majority wanted it to be re-accumulation, there was some obvious signs showing distribution had began. Ask yourself this, when the big boys sell - who are they selling to? Well retail mostly, when the big boys buy - again, who do they buy from? well retail mostly. These patterns are nothing but humans being human. They won't change much, even being over 100 years old. Humans haven't changed much in 100 years. You can see these cycles play out, every step of the way - you can and some will say in the comments "your wrong, we are at this stage or another" Your missing the point, I am not trying to pick bottoms or tops with this post; I'm merely educating the masses as to why these things exist. Take a look at the rally up in Bitcoin's early life; This was the tech kids, the true believers and not until prices hit over 1k did you see many VC's or larger scale "tech investors" join the ride. (NOT TRADERS or TRADING INSTITUTES) not at this stage, the drop down is where the big boys played accumulation to perfection. This came just after, every man and his dog had heard about Bitcoin from the postman or in the local pub-bar. Of course as it happened - jumped in at the local top, got angry and annoyed. Sold off what was left to - you guessed it, the big boys accumulating! As the rally played out, retail seem to always want "NO RISK" so they end up buying when the price is rising. Now it was more widespread, all over social media! We saw influencers call 130K, $250k, a MILLION dollars and even 3 Million dollars! buying it above 45k made sense to many who either did not understand or unwilling to learn. Many went for it, leaving the bags red for an extended period of time. To make it worse, the larger operators can afford to sit and wait, wait and wait some more. Retail will leave due to fear, take losses as every day they switch on the computer - the account is negative. People have literally gone all in on this and in some cases - buying the top! The longer the low ball phase goes on, the more uncertainty it will cause. Fear of this going lower will eat away, especially for those carrying heavy losses. (I've heard people say things like "it's only a loss if you sell") All people want is for the pain to be over and for this to hit all time highs. At the moment, people are questioning crypto - regulators are edging closer - especially after the whole FTX saga. The crowd cries "banks are bad, governments steal" the issue is banks are regulated to ensure low fees and options to return stolen funds. In an unregulated market - some will get burnt! Now, don't get me wrong - I'm not one for governments or banks. But crypto needs to establish a good regulatory footing for it's value to be realised properly. Until then we are likely going to see us sat somewhere in-between denial and depression on our Wall Street cheat sheet. Have a great week all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Buzz this year Is there any intelligent life in crypto land? People have jumped in this space on the assumption that we are only goin up. This reminds me of a certain film and can be broken down using key character traits. So we have the followers; not doing much, if any analysis for themselves. Instead buying on the hope that Bitcoin & Crypto can only ever go up! This isn't helped by the type of influencers who shill coins in pump n dumps and scream in all of their video's - Bitcoin is going to 100k. We saw Cowboy's like M & M crypto, Moonzilla Carl, Plan Bee, C or D and the Rover of Buybits or Big boy! (none of the real names used for no reason at all) The list could go on and on!!!! Unfortunate for many - these Potato heads have little between the ears. So although it's how I wanted to stop my drawing, I decided to complete it for this post. I've said for over a year now here on @TradingView that charts need to go down as well as up. You could see it coming from a mile away. Well, lightyears away to tell the truth! Using techniques like Wyckoff and Elliott (and I've covered these in education terms, here on tradingview) Might seem a little prehistoric, but human sentiment will not change anytime soon!!! So sometimes a playful dinosaur like @Paul_Varcoe streaming, is worth listening too. Instead of only UP, UP and AWAY!!! Moon clowns! Look at their calls and buying each top. And what did we do? Like I said above - this was mapped out over a year ago now and still playing it's game! So chill out, it's only doing it's thing! Don't follow the crowd or listen to cowboy's! Enjoy the weekend!!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

LONG CADJPY Long opportunity targetting the higher part of the channel. Great 1:2 ratio trade

Long

by Atlas-Horizon

GBPJPY - Live Weekly Elliott plots As per plotting of the weekly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas with daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

Updated

BITCOIN adoption What is needed for the crypto industry to thrive? I have been in technology a long time & a trader even longer. I started trading at 15 (nearly 22 years ago now) and become a VC investor in 2014. Bought my first BTC in 2011. And manage funds in and around financial technologies (Fintech). The reason I share this with you, is that I see from experience in both the investing and technology space, what I feel we need to obtain global adoption, acceptance and overall growth. Where it started? Go back to the inception of Bitcoin, the idea was simply to make a better P-2-P (Peer to Peer) transaction system, in essence taking out the middle man, giving the end user more freedom and ideally reducing costs. Why is this important? Whilst the control is a big element and a benefit for crypto – having private keys and personal wallets, the trust and fear also needs to be considered. Back in the early days, most investors saw the technology as risky and the threat of hacks a huge turn-off to the digital currencies. Where banks had the upper hand was in the stability, assurances, regulation and all of this give comfort to the investor. (my money is safe). The Government’s perspective… Well in simple terms, the government want control (without going down a rabbit hole) they are controlled by the bankers on Wall-Street, and the system is designed to keep the middle class – well, in the middle. Regulation as a blanket has yet to have been done. But there have been some major strides towards things like KYC (Know your customer) and AML (Anti Money Laundering) put into companies, exchanges and the likes that were not mandatory early on. Regulation. Whilst some see this as negative, it’s actually counter intuitive to see it as a downside. Yes, it fits under the umbrella of Government control (Big brother watching), but in simple economics, the same regulation will attract more and more institutional money, drive more and more industry adoption across all sectors. A lot of the privacy factors are all ready gone, when looking back at what it was back then, compared to where we are today. Most of the major exchanges now have their own governance imposed on them by the local authorities. Now in this side of things, we also need to consider the cause and effect this will have on the charts. In a tale as old as the market itself we have market cycles which consist of Peaks and troughs. Which are patterns that are developed by the price action and is experienced by all securities. Including Crypto. Games being played The major issue without regulation is that companies & individuals are free to play games, we have recently seen exchanges being investigated for trading against their clients. We have had data being sold externally to trade against custodians, we have also seen acquisitions of fraud and tax sleuths. To name just a few issues. www.bloomberg.com A personal experience and gripe of mine was in 2018 I signed up for a pre-paid debit card, to test this I put $100 into it, but in doing this I needed to first buy the BTC, send that from wallet A to wallet B and then the money sat on an application. After fee’s the money left was around $56 so from the hole in the wall I could only retrieve $50. This is not healthy for mass adoption & without regulation it is unlikely to change fast enough to really challenge the payment system of the world. Global adoption So, although the ‘Masses’ in this case ‘Retail’ do not like the global situation of the government controls and restrictions, the industry is fuelled by fear of missing out and greed of mass wealth. This includes the likes of the exchanges and servers to interact within the crypto eco-system. By this I mean the whole purpose of crypto is empower the people and reduce fees. However, the issue is less regulation and more fees, scams and general lack of CONFIDENCE in the crypto sphere. If $100 is put into a HSBC, Citi bank or Standard Chartered check-in account. You would expect to take $100 from the hold in the wall. Industry growth I expect growth in the industry as a whole, but as an experienced trader I have to be realistic on the timeframes and the situation. When assessing the chart, you can go back to March this year when I was calling the top of the latest cycle. and the outcome; If we are only now seeing the weekly 3-4 move and indeed on the way 4 to 5 – then we should not be disappointed in a top that only stretches just beyond the current ATH and drops again heavily for its monthly 3 to 4 move. Other areas of concern for vast growth We have seen the rise of NFT’s recently (even launched two of my own) but whilst the logic is sound and ideal for content creators and artists, again the issue is “cost” Gas fee’s can be so expensive, taking the logical benefits for artists away from the spotlight, instead of encouraging them to flourish. When combining all of the above, I feel we might attract some interesting regulation changes at the high of the Elliott moves, this will cause panic and sell off in the retail sector. The industry will likely recover and then we get the MOON-shot people are longing for. When analysing the shorter-term stuff people tend to miss the larger point – instead focusing on EMA, RSI or chart patterns; When in doubt – zoom out. The story is already written in the price action, it will now take the news to catch people up with the actual situation. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

The greatest teacher, failure is.Why I add drawings to my TA - mostly as I have time and enjoy entertaining on serious topics. Brighten up the world of @TradingView for you guys. In the recent months since the Rocket call - (BTC Drop to 30k from 60k+) its been a slow steady burn on the weekly 3-4 move in terms of Elliott Wave. I have spent the time putting together some educational content as well as some of the defined logic for the drop itself, the moves down and of course the current situation. If you haven't been following the post, here are a few to help you along. 1) Elliott Roadmap (click the image for a link to the post) This is how it's playing out; 2) Wyckoff Distribution - during the move down, many people turned to "Wyckoff" as it was widely publicised by the media and the usual crypto GURU. The irony was, back in March they all had it as Re-Accumulation. (Click image for link to post) Taken this further and into stage 2 of the basics; (Click link) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3) I have written on the topic of assessment of alt coins, crypto in general and buying the dips. (click on the links again for posts) - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4) Streams; Myself or @Paul_Varcoe put out daily streams, Paul usually does the 10:30 AM (UK Time) and myself the 3:30 PM (UK Time) Recently we have been talking about the length of time, expectations and logic supporting the moves and dynamics. www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com Paul's stream are done as a viewers request series, so go ask him what you want. If you dedicate the time to read through these articles above and watch the couple of streams posted here. It will all make sense, feel calm like Yoda. Enjoy your trading! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Education

by Mayfair_Ventures

Interesting events at Bitcoins high & lows Just playing around with @TradingView Features - looking at the "all of BTC History" chart - this got me thinking. What happened in world news and events on the highs and lows? Anything significant or interesting. The one thing I didn't include was the launch of Ethereum. Which was July 30, 2015, encase your wondering. Thought this would be interesting to share. I won't paste links to each article - but used a site called "the week" to pull up historic dates & events. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

by Mayfair_Ventures

ETH Elliott Weekly Ethereum nearing a (3) High on the Elliott level weekly. This is a (5) Daily - So I am expecting a little more of a Bullish drive. A decent drop giving us a correction down from the 5th wave daily and into (4 Weekly). Waiting to see the trend's character near the next level high. In Extension terms, it's very near an 11.618. Now we are seeing some professional money coming into the mix - We can see the ETH Cash Settled Asset Managers taking 0.33k shorts off the table and the Leveraged Funds adding 0.409k Short & 0.201k Longs. Just covered some of this with @Paul_Varcoe in the TradingView stream (link below) 🎥 www.tradingview.com Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Short

by Mayfair_Ventures

Updated

short term long to short US strength could be the LPSY of the AUD - this means we could get a high to the BC, some rangebound moves and then the drop to around 74000 level. in terms of Elliott, we are either in the 3-4 down or if we get a new high here it will be a fake-out and then down. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

Long

by Mayfair_Ventures

Updated

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