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Do you suffer from (Retail Sentiment)What is retail sentiment? Have you ever noticed on your broker site that it has a statement along the lines of "70%+ of retail traders lose money"??? This is directly related to retail sentiment - in short, institutional money make their money on others losing money in the online marketplace. Every forex trader will always have an opinion about the market. “It’s a bear market, everything is going to hell!” “Things are looking bright. I’m pretty bullish on the markets right now.” Regardless of the technical analysis or the news that comes out, traders often get it wrong. There's some simple logic to this, If you look into COT reports (Commitment of Traders) 🍪 see the last COT post if you're not familiar with COT. Well in addition to COT there is also a tool called sentiment - this info shows what traders are doing on global broker platforms such as IG index. In this current condition and at this precise time it has a mixed bag of; SPX 47% of retail are long - now you would assume with a long stock market it would correlate to a weaker DXY situation, yet retail are also 57% to the short side on EURUSD. Which makes very little sense. Now assume this is only a small minority on one platform like IG index. Well - with another look, you will see retail are currently; Long - USDJPY 67% (Long DXY) Short AUDUSD 63% (also long DXY) However, 76% long USDCAD - and then long Gold 83%. Do all the numbers match up? Knowing 70% or more of retail traders lose money - what would you say? Unfortunately, since the forex market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn’t have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured, but again this is where COT can be used in parallel to the sentiment. This might be 👽 to you right now. But it's a very powerful tool. On the COT side, you can see into the volume traded and will notice if brokers are net-long, institutional investors are often net-short. Buyers need sellers. It's as simple as that. IG sentiment can be found here - www.dailyfx.com Hope this helps someone. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
GBPJPY - Short IDEAIdeal situation - Sunday open with a Gap up. Or Gap down and fill to the upside. Looking for an entry around this level + a few pips above. Testing some key levels. FYI 100% - this is NOT a trade idea for following, just testing behind the scenes. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial BasicsGann fans are a form of technical analysis based on the idea that the market is geometric and cyclical in nature. A Gann fan consists of a series of lines called Gann angles. These angles are superimposed over a price chart to show potential support and resistance levels. 🌀 The Gann Fan was developed by W.D. Gann. 🌀The Gann Fan is a series of angled lines. The user selects the starting point and the lines extend out into the future. 🌀Gann believed the 45-degree angle to be most important, but the Gann Fan also draws angles at 82.5, 75, 71.25, 63.75, 26.25, 18.75, 15, and 7.5 degrees. 🌀The Fan is started at a low or high point. The resulting lines show areas of potential future support and resistance. The Difference Between a Gann Fan and Trendlines The Gann Fan is a series of lines drawn at specific angles. The 45-degree line should extend out 45-degrees from the starting point. A hand-drawn trendline connects a swing low to a swing low, or a swing high to swing high, and then extends out the right. The trendline is matched to recent price action and is not drawn at a specific angle. Step By Step - Application; Gann is a popular tool & has many resources available online - This breakdown was just a quick look into how to apply them. Please feel free to send questions below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
151
Bitcoin Re-AccumulationI have been asked about Bitcoin a fair amount in recent weeks. My first investment in Bitcoin was around $11, If I am honest I wish I had held on to them (not worth thinking about) But back then the Technology was interesting and the investment was worth a shot. Obviously, it paid off and an early exit was regretted. In 2017 our company started investing in Blockchain Technologies for the financial sector - so we are a believer in the underlying tech in general. After the first hype - we felt that the crypto market (different to the blockchain) as in, coins with no real driver or purpose were popping up with the sole intention of a big ICO and exit stage left. The crash actually helped the market overall by shaking out the rubbish (a lot of it) and paved the way for more institutional focus. In doing this, the transition from the cool kids to the professional investors is where we are currently at. As a trader of stocks for 20 something years now, I have been fortunate enough to also be involved in direct company investments and from seeing both sides, you can paint a clear picture. Re-Accumulation takes place after early adoptors take profits this causing a knee-jerk reaction and the price to drop down a fair percentage without easing up. I read that after the $40,000 high the drop wiped $170Bn off Bitcoin's value in 24 hours. So I would class this as the "Reaction". You then will see a market manipulation take place, designed to fool traders into a belief the drop was the pullback and long it will continue. Before another fair size drop (caused by decent selling - profit-making of coins only acquired days ago on the first drop price). Once a quick buck is made, the professional trader will push volume in the other direction lower than the low of the first reaction. Think about it logically for a second, at this stage you have new players new to trading, new to tech. Jumping on the bandwagon trying to make a fast retirment pot. If the price creates a lower low, retail traders are shown "this is a down-trend" maybe it was a bubble - Again fear setting in. Once the Price has come back below *Fair market value - the accumulation will continue until enough coins have been accumulated and the real rise comes. Sending the price up and above the last highs and into new territory. Here's a couple of screens in mostly in smaller timeframes to show examples of what is going on. This above shows the concept mentioned of manipulation after the buying climax. These are some potential scenarios based on the shakeout logic. Fair Market value levels. Accumulation indicator widening. Trend momentum in the smaller timeframe & key levels. This shows the contractions of the trend near the top - creating a range now for Accumulation. Volume movement slowing toward the top and a steady drop down to the value area lows. Not to scare people too much, whilst collecting coins. ATR Drop confirming volume decreasing slowly in the Accumulation. I hope this helps - please feel free to ask questions, comment, and like below. Have a great weekend. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
Short Term ShortI have been trading AUDUSD up and down throughout this Wyckoff setup, it's the first Wyckoff pattern I have worked with for several years. After moving to MEan Reversion, Elliott structures and COT data. Where I feel Wyckoff can really help, is all around the concept of the composite man theory. When market conditions are such, that retail are loaded up on net long or net short positions. You will find that COT data showing the hedge funds and strong hand operators are moving positions in the other direction. When the climax is reached you can walk through the trade plan seeing key levels being touched and an instant reaction. I have dropped a timeframe for this post to show the significance of the levels (sorry they are in pink) purely to highlight. I have also left on the OScialltors showing the false bar stochastic situation, the bottom swing moves, Quadratics show the momentum bullish and bearish with a zero line cross on accumulation/distribution. Again purely for this post, I have included the distribution/accumulation oscillator showing the trend buys and sells changing hands and reversing. I hope you find it interesting and please feel free to like and comment below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
EURUSD - Wyckoff schematic formingAs per the last Wyckoff posts on NZDUSD - the software we use to plot the Elliott waves show a drop from the top of leg 3 down to a 4 on the weekly timeframe. This is further supported by the level of exhaustion seen on DXY. It now needs to breathe, looking at the structural setup of the Wyckoff schematics we can see that we have had the PSY followed by the BC which also happened within a daily order block level. Usually, at highs and lows (exits from zones) we also expect to see a drop or rise from the zone and a retest up to the level. This is where EURUSD is currently in the daily structure. Overall I am looking for the price to pop up a little and test the Imbalance and order blocks on lower TF's - that tags the OB level on the daily which is the retest. Then a drop down to give DXY strength and complete leg 4 of the EU weekly Elliott pattern. This week COT data shows leveraged funds have added 3,500+ shorts to their Euro positions - although Long overall, it supports a drop to 4 and up to 5 in coming weeks. Oanda sentiment has a 61.8% net long Euro & as we all know 70%+ of retail traders lose money. I have added our swing indicator, Quadratics and Stochastic falsebar - just to show the current situation on the Oscillators. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
Elliott -Wyckoff Breakdown (2) of (2)Although it's a crazy time with the whole world in Pandemic mode due to Covid - you can still see the Wyckoff theory at work, by looking at these principles near or in key levels you can see the advantage of waiting to join smart money moves. As a mentor, I often get emails and messages asking should I long this or short that. And usually, as soon as you see the chart, it's obvious that the retail game is being played. And we wonder why over 70% of retail traders lose money. Looking for confluence and then trading with confidence into or from key zones makes more sense than trading support and resistance levels which have been open to a subjective view. Chat rooms, trade ideas, signals, indicators - all move the trader away from the real structural significance. Again like Elliott - there are plenty of educational videos, PDFs, and books on Wyckoff and his theory. Some good books include "How I trade and invest in stocks and bonds" by Richard D Wyckoff and another good Wyckoff book is "The Wyckoff methodology in-depth" by Ruben Villahermosa Chaves. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures