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Mayfairmethod

Making your first million is the hardestAfter that, it's leverage. The issue for me as a long-time trader, is people these days don't seem to have time, patience or the ability to absorb information. They read an article or watch a few seconds of a stream and assume they know! I am not just talking crypto, I mean in general. The attention span of a fish. I read a pretty decent article by this guy @holeyprofit He talked about Bitcoin Mania with a lot of truth, most people won't want to hear. Article here The issue is the whole market right now are currently hinging on or near their all-time highs, Gold, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500) stocks such as Meta, NVIDIA and loads of others. Instead of shouting for even greater highs, the question should be "what is sustaining the rally?" For the majority of retail traders, they assume it's different this time. Gamestop was up until it was not. The issue is that they never learn. They have no concept of time factors and the assumption that markets only ever go up is the very reason the majority of traders stay broke. Crypto is a really interesting space, when I first got involved in 2011, it was a punt. I got lucky, but buying cheap and selling high is what most people strive for. Yet, reading posts and social media content - nobody sells, they all buy low, stacking sats when the price drops. So where is the profit? Well paper gains I assume. Game stop... Not to focus on Crypto; the markets as a whole can be profitable and just like Kenny Rogers said - "if you're going to play the game boy, you got to learn to play it right. know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away and know when to run" Every hand's a winner - every hand's a loser. Key message there!!! Trading vs investments - if you are looking to make it big on one deal, that's different than profiting from the market every week, every month and every year. Risk management is key, scaling your account, cutting losers quickly and adding to winners. Many won't understand this concept. Markets go up and everyone is a genius in a bull market. Once you start scaling an account, the trade percentages in terms of rewards you seek don't matter the same. You don't need 10x returns on your thousand dollars. A 3% win on your million-dollar account is a different game. Back in 2021; I wrote this educational post about the psychology of the markets. I used the Simpsons as a way to get the message over. Markets breathe and the rise and fall, rise and fall. Once you realise you can take from the market consistently, you will see the stress disappear, and the care of price up or down matters less. Your investment criteria changes and the scope gets wider. This is how you scale from that first million, into the second and third. Not having all eggs in one basket and hope it goes up forever. What if gold drops 10% and you are long? can you afford a 5 year spell on the investment you have? These are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself. What if Bitcoin's halving is a buy the rumour, sell the news and we take another 3 years to get back to a new ATH? "ah it's different this time" - yeah I heard all that in 2021 when certain influencers were calling for $135,000 worse case within a month. We are 2024 and still roughly half of the way to 135k?? I know for you guys who want to learn and progress you would have read this far; for those who "already know" they have stopped reading about 4 lines in and seeing a picture or 2. They leave a comment due to their keyboard warrior mindset and fish-like capacity for thinking. The point is to ensure you deploy proper risk management, especially here near the tops of a lot of these markets, trail your stop losses, and don't forget to cash out your profits. Paper gains can quickly become paper losses. If you're serious about money making, be prepared to diversify, be prepared to sit on your hands, keep cash in your pocket as well as be prepared to take calculated risks. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Top 10 books in tradingAs a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools. However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced. During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading? I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away. ============================================================== "The Wall Street Jungle" Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry. Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances. Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes. What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory. "Trading in the Zone" By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset. This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one. "The Wealth of Nations" Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics. In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society. For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit. "The Go-Giver" Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories. self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals. The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver." The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market. "The Zurich Axioms" A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management. The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets. For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets. "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side" Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies. In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly. I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books. "How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities" And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities. For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal. "Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe" A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets. The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles. If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say. "Master the art of Trading" By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible. This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques. "The Intelligent Investor" a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing." The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation. I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage. ===================================================================== I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Let's all jump inWhen you first start trading, everything seems like a good idea! You want to take every trade, use every indicator, watch every video and stream! Be like every influencer! You get this feeling that you found something new, that you are the chosen one. Unfortunately, it's for this same reason - 90% of new retail traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days... Here are some key pointers to keep you safe! 1) Risk Management; learning to manage risk is key. If you want to gamble away your savings, Vegas is a lot more fun than the markets. Trust me, I speak from experience in both! 2) Create a plan that suits the type of lifestyle you have, if your working full time then scalping every couple of minutes is not doing you any favours. Take the long road. If you have time but don't want to stare at screens all day, then don't go scalping either. Not saying, don't do scalping or it's no good. Just emphasising, to pick your own style. 3) Don't follow influencers! I cover this topic a lot, people often ask me about Plan B or some other random guy. The issue is, these guys don't trade, they shill affiliate links and film 4 Youtube videos a day! They make their money by having followers and views. Just look at this below; This was the message from the top! Where would you be now? Leveraged long positions? This aspect has become, possibly one of the biggest factors for how people lose in the crypto space. You get sold a dream by following demo traders! Take our friend Carl, I called him out after seeing his demo trading on a video. The guy is practically calling every top a pump and go long from here... 4) Follow the big players; not the whales, the institutions. When you know where their bias is, you have a lot more probability getting the direction correct. 5) Search for key levels; regardless of a technique - this could be supply and demand levels, Fib pullbacks, Wyckoff Schematics or Elliott Waves. Don't trust only one, and please, please, please! Don't get lazy and just follow something you seen in a video. Do your own due diligence. For example; I see 2 Elliott Wave scenarios here for Bitcoin. This is the first option. The second has a 4 where the 2 is of a move one degree lower. I've covered this in my streams. It's knowing the logic behind the market sentiment that will help you figure out the general direction, this is why knowing the bigger players in the space is useful. As you can see from my post here - each call is on @tradingview 6) Do your own research to create your own plan, that should fit around your lifestyle or at least your current circumstance. 7) Repeat step 1 through 6. These moves are choreographed, like you wouldn't believe. Don't believe me? On the way up to the 65k all time high at the time; you could see the re-accumulation take place. As we neared the extension levels, you could see the distribution sequence start. I covered this with a lesson on Wyckoff at the time. These levels were already mapped out, months in advance of the actual move. From there and up to the current all time high. Why would it move like that? why would it stop where it did? These are the questions you need to ask, if you want to take trading seriously. You won't qualify as a doctor or a lawyer after watching a handful of videos. You won't make it as a trader either if that's your expectation. Finally, Here's some logic for you - are we likely to reach $100k Bitcoin on this move up? Monthly stochastic level would say otherwise... Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
The whole Economy & not just BitcoinPeople want to know about Bitcoin, but do not know how other factors effect the moves in the market. Take a zoom out and look at this... What usually happens when you have a ascending move up? it's moving up with a hesitation, lack of conviction. This isn't any old chart, it's the monthly view of SPY. Back in November last year I shared a DXY chart (Dollar Index) That highlighted this key level here... Why this level is key, is what we teach - but the fact it respects it is more the secret sauce. You see, DXY is often overlooked as an indicator - yet you buy coffee beans, oil, gold, cotton, even Bitcoin using the Dollar. Where is price sat? Well, you guessed it at a key level. Now let's use another useful indicator; COT intelligence. Managed money is on the shift.... hmmmm.... hint, hint if ever there was a hint. We also seeing some shorter term strength in the Dollar, just behind the Yen. This is very small term in the grand scheme of things, but you have to note these if your wanting to trade your 15 minute charts. Why I said this is the whole economy, it's due to the sheer amount of uncertainty and speculation at the moment of a recession inbound. So let's look a little closer to Gold. Take note of both the peaks and the stochastic situation. Strength in the Dollar will weaken this. If you didn't spot it... How's about a quick look at Bitcoin? If you follow me already you know, it's done nothing unexpected over the last 2 years or more, if you don't follow me - I have been in BTC for a long time, Tech VC and a trader of over 22 years now. This combo has given an interesting perspective of this market as it's shifted from a play thing to a professional instrument. This above is a post (click on it) of the major moves I posted for each swing and the logic for why it will do it's next dance. Your resident "influencer" might have been calling for HKEX:135 ,000 over 18months ago, moon shots on every $100 rally? But the truth is, Bitcoin is in a transition period making it more of a professional tool, this will and has already had some impact on the analysis. Take a look at this monthly candle. Again, not the stochastic and the time left on this candle. Look a little closer at the weekly. With the stochastic situation you would expect a little move up. This is exactly what you can expect on the daily. Now this isn't a run on 100k or even $1million from here. It's more like a simple Wick fill. I've spoken about these moves for several months and the fact that we are indeed accumulating, no doubt on that. COT Asset Managers say as much. However, it's not as simple as up, up n away. Leveraged funds are playing the game. So to summarise - if you see some strength on DXY, what would this do for SPX, Gold, Bitcoin? And yes those extensions are pretty spot on level wise too. Respect the algo. Simple logic. Anyways, have a great weekend! Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
19
Bitcoin what would hurt retail the mostWhat would hurt retail the most? This thought has made me more money than watching the news or wondering what caused that move. The concept of the "Composite Operator", A Wyckoffian term, and it is the culprit of most major events in the market. Composite man as I call him is able to manipulate retail and the overall sentiment. A lot of people will say these old techniques don't work, what about PlanB's model instead? $135k called over a year ago... hmmmm You don't believe in composite man? Well this might convince you otherwise... One more pop up, over the recent highs, could even be a quick wick up, but it would trigger so many stop orders and so many new enthusiastic buyers to sell to. With {insert influencer of your choosing here} shilling their moon calls. Demo accounts getting REKT left, right and centre. A perfect psychological play. See @Paul_Varcoe 's latest idea on this topic here: Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Bitcoin Wyckoff situation exploredMany people out there like to talk and share "Wyckoff" Information, unfortunately it's not as simple as people make out. Back in 2021 When I called an obvious distribution, it took a couple of months for many of the influencers to catch up. In the March, leading up to the first major all time high 64k levels. The market sentiment was "Re-accumulation" So why was this not Re-accumulation? Well, we had already had the re-accumulation; as I highlighted in January 2021. Why is this far back important? The trend is your friend as they say. Knowing the bias is key. Using these techniques you can measure the moves in several ways to get forecasted projections into the future. Look back at the lows after the 64k High. Yes 28k levels targeted as early as March. I shared some education on this topic prior to the drop. And again on the way up - the signs to the current ATH were also written in the stars (well it was clear the logic as to why it would truncate). Just read the comments inside that image. Knowing where and why as a general bias, makes trading Bitcoin pretty nice. The chart in the main image is another Wyckoff related technique, less discussed - but very, very effective. This is known as Point and Figure or (P&F) you can actually change the settings of the type of candles here on @TradingView As you can see target levels were calculated from the last re-distribution and look at where we have the current price action... Once you get a good handle on Wyckoff, it can be very advantageous on any instrument. Stay safe and enjoy this crypto market! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
XRP - UpdateHappy New Year to all! Not updated publicly XRP for some time, here are a few notes on this pair. Back in the middle of last year, we saw a nice move down to create its first MP move. This followed by the value area being used multiple times before a move back up to the MP centre above. Although XRP has it's own playbook, with the lack of liquidity currently seen across crypto - it's closer correlated to Bitcoin's price sentiment than usual. Keep an eye on indication from Bitcoin's data for any signs of a potential push. XRP has enjoyed a dominance place over the strength of both Ethereum and Bitcoin of late, will it kiss and pull up or dip below? Well, this is where the SoS's will be key in figuring out it's next move away from liquidity. We saw the first test back into the lower liquidity zone, in the early hours of this morning. But as I mentioned above, the market will likely be driven by nothing more than Bitcoin's move up. Until we get signs from COT - more hand sitting. The market itself, highlighted with the red box on the indicator. Still clearly negative. Stay safe & again, wishing you a Happy New Year! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
A Christmas Tale.This year has been a funny one, well actually over the last couple of years we have seen an escalation into what looks like a global recession on the horizon. Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, Trump vs Biden, Boris out, Liz out. Inflation - whatever next?! I found a couple of cartoons and thought I would put them in a little gallery here. Non are my opinion, but found them relevant to post. In this day and age; China might even have a "No Santa policy this year" And out in the US; The rest of the world It's been a strange few months to say the least... Some countries are driving a message Whilst some don't have a clue Incompetent And finally in the world that is CRYPTO Have a wonderful holiday season - Happy New Year and all that. Stay safe traders! (As above, opinions or cartoons are not my own. I was just sharing in one post).
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
The Ultimate Guide To BITCOINI have thought long and hard about posting this particular post. I have shared similar posts over the last year, but never put all of the pieces together for a walkthrough on how Bitcoin has done EXACTLY as expected, institutional players have asserted their authority. The misconception for majority of retail traders is, big boys in equals price going up. What they have failed to consider, is the big boys are professional money makers. Wanting to make money from regular retail traders who have no clue and in an unregulated market, it's child's play. Take a look at the post chronology, all available on @TradingView all immutable. You need to understand why the emotional sentiment makes the chart move the way it does. You see back in 2020 I started making some of the crypto plays public, I have been fortunate enough to have been in and around crypto a very long time both on the tech side as well as being a professional trader. Here's how the Wall Street Cheat Sheet shaped this last couple of moves. From here we were clearly at a point whereby most people still didn't truly get it, toes were getting dipped in the water and the fireworks about to pop. Early in 2021; there where clear signs of a re-accumulation as the OPTIMISM phase sunk in. As price rallied up and more and more retail started to cotton on to what Bitcoin and crypto could be - we arrived at the first phase of true adoption, Venture Capitalist's got in early based on technology - Private Equity and Hedge Funds started to show interest across the industry. However, like I mentioned above - big boys in doesn't equate to prices going up indefinitely. It usually means they want to make money, to do this they require an accumulation phase of their own. Hence, after a excitement and we started seeing Bitcoin THRILLS it was clear the time was pretty much up. The blew up a rocket post got a lot of attention; people didn't want the run to end, didn't want to believe the calls for a top. But the writing was on the wall. As many retail traders piled in - often following bad advice. The professionals where simply selling to dumb money. It was clear to see that institutional money was applying institutional strategies. Things like Wyckoff I posted about in February (again, received negatively) "This is Accumulation" they said... But take a look at the perfect - even textbook Wyckoff schematic from the top. The moves were defined, the target levels achieved and clear indication of who was driving. Liquidity pools below; I had a few technical difficulties trying to stream around this time on TradingView - but recorded an idea instead, this explaining the logic now for the move that was inbound. Although we had a very ugly Elliott wave 4 down on the weekly, it had started to correct itself as we tagged the 3rd wave of the 5th up. You could now start to calculate the next top - where and why. Again, pretty obvious. In this image above the post in August last year explained the levels of liquidity up above the old all time high and why we would quickly tumble from the new all time high. I posted a few educational post around this time, trying to get people to see where we sat, why we were likely to not tag one hundred thousand plus at this point in time. Keep in mind the wall street cheat sheet, has mini versions of the same process inside the larger cycle... Blue sky levels could now be defined - see the dates of these posts; same post but highlighting the levels And the outcome; When you look back at all of the above, it's easy to understand why the drop from the all time high, would be no different from the strategy and moves prior. This allowed for obvious steps and stages on the way down. Again, I pointed this out with some Tradingview education. Post the line break we would likely see a run on liquidity before the price continued down, knowing the smaller cycles are playing out within the larger - guess what we would do? Up to grab new buyers before a continuation on down. As we waved goodbye to the panic drop below the Elliott Wave invalidation levels of the previous (1) - a lot of anger set in. The large players in the game, now want to do a couple of things - they want to sell off early buys for Christmas bonuses and of course, re-accumulate new positions. As retail move into depression - after all, your local influencer told you $1million a Bitcoin 2022. It's actually been a fun ride. If you want to see more, don't forget to follow - all links are in the bio! Have a good one!!! Trade safe. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
17
Smart money dumb tradesThe major issue with 99% of retail, is that they seek tops and bottoms. They watch a video or read a post and DIVE not knowing, or understanding some simple logic. To be a successful trader you need a level head. As soon as you realise profits are made in a range and not by trying to time market tops and bottoms, there more you succeed. There are thousands of techniques out there, some that have a high hit rate, others that don't, some are complex and some are simple. In instruments such as Bitcoin - you also now have tools such as on chain data. The issue is and will always be, liquidity. Money is made by someone else losing! Retail will see things like Elliott wave and dismiss it - "ah it's old, ah it's broken, ah I don't get it..." We as humans can find the good, the bad and the ugly with all techniques. All we are really trying to do is, re-affirm our personal opinions, defending loyalties and find angles to attack anything that is not aligned with our desired outcome. Hindsight equals the ability to explain the past but in doing so, creates an illusion that we "now understand" it all makes sense. People don't understand because they cannot explain it. Regardless of wanting to or not. Our own unique perspective is built on our own unique experiences - trying to make sense of the complicated situation. The reason I talk about this - is that when you only take snippets of data from one source, or worse, several sources. It's so easy to get confused and mix up your own beliefs. In this current BTC scenario - people are desperate for a bottom to be in. It's all they seek, so when an influencer or educator mumbles the words - bottom, they assume it's to the moon we go. Thus, supporting the personal belief and desire. Every professional trading strategy, requires confirmation. If the expectation is we rise from here - we need logic as to why? if it is we are likely to drop - then, what's the reason for that drop? Over the last 2 years, I have made some of my Bitcoin calls public. There is a lot more behind the scenes that does not get posted, so what you should not do is - read a small percentage of a post or watch the first few minutes of a live stream and dive in. Your missing the bigger picture! This doesn't just apply to my posts - this is in general. This will help you in the long run. You need your own level of understanding for the logic behind the move. I can show post like this back in March this year; And the outcome was as predicated - We grabbed liquidity and dropped seeking a better accumulation range. I've talked about value areas - this post goes back another year... The outcome - For me, it's knowing the "why". The lesson here - is no obtain a bias of your own. Work on that to see inside the move. My view is pretty much as I have talked about this last 14-18 months... We have seen some stopping action. Now you look out for a range - Obvious liquidity in this zone. So this is 100% a lesson and not a call. Now look at the range in detail, you will see a fair value level hidden in there. Same goes for knowing the "why" - as Bitcoin becomes more institutional, it becomes more and more respectful. But as it does, tops and bottoms are still not what your targeting. Look at this from Feb last year from the first rally all time high. Look at the post date. These things are playing a game - it's all about understanding the rules. On the way back up from the low shown in March last year, why would there be evidence for a truncation? This image was the 24th of August. We go on to climax just above the 65k region... Liquidity is the name of the game.. This post is the first in the Liquidity series of posts here on @TradingView Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
Chasing DXY - S&P, BTC, XRP DXY is becoming interesting, with the global views of recession. What's happening in Ukraine, will we see another Covid round? Many traders don't know which way to turn. DXY is a good indicator for majority of the markets - after all, most commodities purchased globally are done with USD. Keep an eye on the following move as this will trigger the SPX rally, Bitcoins 5th wave and many, many more. Here's a look out on the monthly view; Stepped down to the weekly; And finally, the daily. If your keen on crypto - watching DXY do it's dance is definitely useful. Take a look at the images in this post from a couple of weeks back, you can see how these levels also effect Bitcoin. Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXY
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Why is trading so emotional? In August last year, I published an educational post around Fibonacci. There's also thousands of articles and books available on the topic. But how does it fit with being emotional? Often people talk about Algos, smart money concepts and a load of other terms. All trying to make sense of the market, Fibonacci isn't magical or mystical. It's a set of simple numbers that work - due to humans wanting to see patterns in everything they look at. Here's the article from last year - feel free to click it and go through that one as well. The issue I have when educating people - is there is always a desire to find an automated solution. I keep saying, if algos are that good - we wouldn't have school, doctors or firemen; they would all be sipping cocktails on a beach far away! If you want to learn technical analysis, you really need to dig deep into the emotional analysis. People like Dow, Elliott and Wyckoff (for me, are not technical gurus) they merely understood - human psychology made waves, changed sentiment - the bigger players in the markets know this. It's why most news outlets and websites around TA push writers who only talk MA's and RSI's. It keeps fresh sheep on track. The market is all about liquidity - these levels are created at psychological levels & from there, it's copy, paste, repeat. Take a look at this on the current Bitcoin move down from the All Time High. Swing 1 = 618 of A-B Swing 2 = 100% of the A-B Swing 3 = 100% of the A-B Swing 4 = 618 of the A-B Swing 5 = 1.23 range and 1.27 range of the A-B Then even when you step down a level you can see the move inside the moves looking similar. Local support is 618... When I started posting on @TradingView publicly - I explained why we where seeing value areas and re-accumulation for the first times. These levels were starting to show signs of the crypto space being institutionalised. This is important to understand, as much like Fibonacci levels, the price would now act in a different way to psychological levels. In stepped Wyckoff and you could see from before and after - where and why the price would go. Before Here's the AFTER shot. Lucky Guess? Well - maybe on the way back from the 28k levels highlighted in March, the very same fibs became obvious. If we where seeing Elliott waves form you could therefor measure the fib extensions. This was August the 24th - read the comments as to why the drop was coming (4 move) and why we would likely see the drop just above the old all time high. By October we had seen the forecasted extension levels getting hit - a retest followed this and we dropped. So, like I said - there's nothing magical, it's all about sentiment and psychology. Learn this and you will progress as a trader. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
31
The News Just Serves To ConfuseI have been a trader for a very long time, so listen as I spit some facts. News is worse than a distraction, it ACTIVELY inhibits you from making good decisions. You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! I will say this again at the end. I am 100% certain that I only started to be successful after I stopped DIRECTIONAL trading based on news. Of course, I know the broad mass of what's going on in the markets and which news events may have an effect. I haven't stopped listening to and reading the news, but I HAVE started to see it all differently. You can see from the chart that all the recent "Shock News" has no real impact unless you are a day trader. rate decision, statements, unemployment, blah blah.... I am not saying that news is not important, I'm saying that you need to translate it and to be aware of why it is written. This probably sounds like a weird thing to say, but hear me out. Do a memory check with me. When was the last time that the news was all positive about bitcoin? Answer: At the top and on the way down, when the big boys were selling it to naïve retail (like you, probably). Now we are at the bottom, all the news is negative on BTC. I wonder why? (HINT: They want you to panic out so they can buy.) There are three possible reasons for this. 1. The writers are dumb. They are part of the retail crowd themselves and are therefore subject to the same impulses, fears and hopes. They get carried away when things are pumping, and drop into despair when the markets plunge. 2. The whole industry is driven by the big firms, who obviously want to make as much money as they can. Retail traders are, on average, so bad at trading that brokers don't even put their trades into the market, preferring to risk taking the other side themselves. 75% of retail traders lose money. 90% of retail traders will lose 90% of their first trading account in the first 90 days. If I were a broker I would take the other side of those odds, thanks. All I have to do now is make people trade as much as possible. I get commission, and I probably get their stake as well. How to make people trade as much as possible? PUMP OUT NEWS THAT TRIGGERS TRADING. 3. A combination of 1 and 2. The financial industry, from megabanks through to news services, gurus and brokers, is set up to excite people about trading as much as possible. There is constant pressure to provide reasons why oil rose 5% or SP500 dropped 8% etc etc, and even on slow weeks the sheer amount of stories that are published is mind-blowing. The writers are unlikely to be traders themselves, and they just pump out stories based on what happened yesterday and what MIGHT happen today. It is all designed as a massive call to action that is constant, and traders just like you open (and close) positions based on "market analyst" pieces written by economists and professional analysts employed by the brokers. Are you beginning to see how it all fits together? The industry LOVES a day trader most of all, because they lose their stake the fastest, so day trading is promoted as exciting. After all, it IS exciting. Trading gives you a buzz. It's addictive, possibly more so than gambling. It is gambling after all, only slightly different, and if you trade like a gambler, you lose in the end. So, how do I look at news? 1. If trading short-timeframe, I am aware of figures that are due this week, and avoid holding a position coming up to an announcement, and for a while afterwards. 2. If trading medium- to long-term, I remember that the non-farm payrolls may move the market a few percent sometimes, but when you zoom out you can barely see the effect. As a result most of my trading is swing trading. 3. I regard it as a reverse indicator if anything. It never ceases to amaze me when I am thinking about taking a long in, say, Gold, and then an email hits my inbox containing a bearish Gold story. I don't think I am becoming QAnon but I do think these stories can easily be planted by the big players. What journalist doesn't want to write a story after they interview some "master of the universe" trader from GS or JPM or wherever. Or maybe the boss says "write a Gold story today", so they call up their contact who trades it for a bank. Same effect. The banks are in buy mode, and they need retail to sell it to them. If this sounds like I think the whole thing is a colossal rigged casino, then I am getting my point across. News is just a part of the effort to separate you from your cash, but it's doing a great job. So, what to do? 1. Trade on Price Action only. 2. Be aware of news in case it affects a trade you may place or one that you have on, 3. Understand that nearly all news is designed to make you panic in or out of a trade, and regard it VERY cynically. It can be hard to remain calm in the face of a negative headline, but that's what a good pro trader will do. Currently I am long BTC, despite huge negative headlines. Once again, repeat after me: You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION!
UEducation
by Paul_Varcoe
120
Key levels and why, then how to spot themI've written several articles around various educational topics here on @TradingView all of which have their individual application and use case. This latest post will go into how you can identify key value areas, or what I like to call "Auction areas". In essence these are areas or zones where Dumb money becomes active, often at highs or lows & usually in the wrong general direction. You only have to look as far as this guy and nearly 2 million followers - buying the ATH's of Bitcoin last year. In December 2020 I wrote an article on Bitcoin here & why it was starting to show signs of becoming institutionalised. And slowly set the path as to why we are then likely to see "Value areas" being formed. In Feb 2021 I followed this up with the identification of a value area. As you can see; this is how powerful these levels become These levels are only part of the bigger picture - but you will see how and why they are relevant, how they can be used to find both highs and lows - as well as giving a larger picture bias on the general direction of the move. ================================================================================== Now you have a little context. To understand why they work, you need to appreciate, what they are - As I mentioned above, these are zones where Dumb money get excited! It's as simple as that. Many indicators are designed and shared to mask true market cycles; people will spend years trying to find the secret sauce. However, things like Bollinger Bands, MACD's are only fuelling the dumb money machine. Take Moving averages for an example - if we have an aggressive uptrend, you should expect a sloping moving average. With a few buttons and presses in the settings, you can edit a moving average to fit the chart. So strip it all back. What you are looking for is, areas of consolidation - these areas are indecision zones where buyers and sellers are actively seeking value. These levels create the foundation of the value area range. This can then be used alongside liquidity pockets and used to enter or exit trades. Click this image below and see the levels get tagged, this is due to the collection of Dumb money stops & entries, followed by a reversal into the lower liquidity area. Ok so how are they identified? Well, first of all you have consolidations; these tightening ranges of price will highlight the auction has began, we now have both buyers and sellers active. As you can see in this chart above; we have two large areas to the upside of untapped liquidity... Zoom in and you will see heavier zones whereby volume was heavy, but price hardly moved - this is a hint towards liquidity sitting there. If you apply a simple tool like "Fixed range volume" you will see the profiles are concentrated around these levels; hence acting like a magnet to price. ----------------------------------------------------------------- A great example of this was to use the levels created, in conjunction with Fibonacci extension levels to spot a potential zone for the upside (into unchartered territory) of Bitcoin's new ATH. This was clear as early as August, we would tag the old liquidity levels and plummet back below 40k very quickly. The levels are useful, especially when combing with other techniques such as Elliott, but when you apply Fib's and can spot key extension levels; it's a lot more likely to be pulled towards such levels if there is a consolidation cluster. This is merely "Dumb Money" value areas being bought and sold. Optimal for institutional players, or as Richard Wyckoff called them "Composite Man". Looking at COT data and knowing the levels - meant we were 100% less likely to see $135,000 in December last year; CM was selling into the retail crowd. ============================================ So now you can see areas of interest, these levels are permanently set - although they become weaker over time, they still represent value for both buyers and sellers and are likely to become support and resistance at later points in time. There are several strategies and methods to use this knowledge, some of which I will post in later posts. But I would advise you go away and try and spot some of these levels on other charts. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
3rd Roadmap update. Based off the first Painting of the roadmap publicly back last March. I have updated the plot back in November - so here's the 3rd variation. Let's start back last March with this; The extension levels pointed towards the $62,500 level. This was targeting the weekly 3 for a drop down to 28k territory. This was shown in the "they blew up the rocket" post. On the move back up I had explained in August why we would only see a move up shy of $70,000. This was first highlighted as another Elliott extension with a low volume move up confirming this; Extension level in September Fast forward a month; The interesting thing here is that Bitcoin is becoming ever more institutional - Following the COT data we can see still huge short positions; this plays perfectly into the monthly 4 move. I covered this in the COT post; Then we neared the extension level; distribution started to show it's hand AGAIN; I updated the main Roadmap in November with this post; www.tradingview.com As we neared the top of the move: the value area range showed more signs for the coming drop. As I covered in the last couple of streams - We are now midway through the 0-A with 2 distinctive options showing their hand. You have to keep in mind this is Monthly; until the COT Leveraged funds start to tip the scale; expect the low volume move; profit taking and accumulation hand in hand. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
31
Buzz this yearIs there any intelligent life in crypto land? People have jumped in this space on the assumption that we are only goin up. This reminds me of a certain film and can be broken down using key character traits. So we have the followers; not doing much, if any analysis for themselves. Instead buying on the hope that Bitcoin & Crypto can only ever go up! This isn't helped by the type of influencers who shill coins in pump n dumps and scream in all of their video's - Bitcoin is going to 100k. We saw Cowboy's like M & M crypto, Moonzilla Carl, Plan Bee, C or D and the Rover of Buybits or Big boy! (none of the real names used for no reason at all) The list could go on and on!!!! Unfortunate for many - these Potato heads have little between the ears. So although it's how I wanted to stop my drawing, I decided to complete it for this post. I've said for over a year now here on @TradingView that charts need to go down as well as up. You could see it coming from a mile away. Well, lightyears away to tell the truth! Using techniques like Wyckoff and Elliott (and I've covered these in education terms, here on tradingview) Might seem a little prehistoric, but human sentiment will not change anytime soon!!! So sometimes a playful dinosaur like @Paul_Varcoe streaming, is worth listening too. Instead of only UP, UP and AWAY!!! Moon clowns! Look at their calls and buying each top. And what did we do? Like I said above - this was mapped out over a year ago now and still playing it's game! So chill out, it's only doing it's thing! Don't follow the crowd or listen to cowboy's! Enjoy the weekend!!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
25
The importance of PATIENCETrading is supposed to be exciting, and it can be. To be successful trading long-term, you need to utterly crush that impulse for daily excitement. Replace it by the lovely feel of banking larger profits on a monthly basis. Look at the BTC chart above. It took 78 days for the weekly to break out of its accumulation pattern to start the 4-5 move. Here we are sitting in what I believe to be a monthly accumulation, and everyone gets excited when it moves a couple of thousand dollars either way. Get real. Even if we take the area around 30k as the start of the accumulation, we still have no reason to expect a surge any time soon. Be patient. Wait for confirmation if you have bullets left in the gun. Don't expect every single move to be "THE ONE". Nine times out of 10 it won't be. Be patient, when the break comes, look for a retest and confirmation of the change of character. Once confident, you can play the game in decent size with a good feeling. We are still bullish at these levels. If Crypto-Twitter is calling 12k, then do you really expect that to happen?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
5
Why we are finally happy to go long Bitcoin around here. LOGIC!If you check out what me and my partner @Mayfair_Ventures have been saying for MONTHS, you will see that yesterday proved us right. If you are serious about trading, then take the time to actually read these posts and watch these streams, and you will learn a LOT. Look at the Elliott Wave plot. We recognised the Big Blue 3 as the MONTHLY 3, leading us to expect a long and deep correction. Way back in September we were saying that we expect a new ATH (weekly 5, monthly 3) but it would be weak: CORRECT On the way down from the ATH we said it was targeting 35k, this was correct too, see: When it got to 35K we saw only a 3-wave correction when 70%+ of such corrections should be zigzag and hence 5 waves, so there was more to it. This was finally proved yesterday. So we expected a bounce from 35k then a drop. When it got to 45k on the bounce I published this, saying don't FOMO in. We had reached a resistance and logic was either calling for the 5 wave move = DOWN, or a 3 wave move with A already in = DOWN. Either way down. FOMO-ers got rekt. When it got to 45k again I published this: This was because there was a HUGE resistance at 48k, and the move up was not looking impulsive enough to be the real push for B. We say it as the 4th (upward) wave of the correction, labelled as D in orange. (people argue about how to label Elliott Wave but we don't care if it's labelled 4 or D or Y). I think I was $36 wrong with the prediction of the top at 48k. I also looked in detail at the redistribution I could see playing out in my streams last week, using Wyckoff Theory: www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com These predicted this fall as it was starting . Last week I published this: All the so-called YouTube "gurus" had this chart, and all said if it broke out of the channel it was entering a downtrend. This is wrong. It HAS to break out in order to get to the monthly 4, so that it can panic retail into selling before the next big rise. This allows the big players to reload. The gurus make retail traders panic and sell into the arms of the big players, they are part of the problem. They come in right on cue predicting a downtrend. :facepalm So, to the point of this article. We think that probabilities favour that the White A is in or nearly in, and once this consolidation is complete without a further collapse , we think that probabilities favour a fast corrective move up to the White B. These are probabilities only and we can be wrong. So, we are watching the consolidation, expecting a move up, and our bias has switch to long in this AREA. Remember, there's no point trying to pick a low. Go in in the right areas, go small, and add to the position when you get more confirmation. The more evidence you gather, the more you pick high probability trades. If you really want maximum comfort, you should wait for the White C, which allows much more confirmation. @Mayfair_Ventures will do this I bet. He has more patience than the rest of us put together. Good Luck and thanks for reading. I will update this as the consolidation continues.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
264
Bitcoin becoming more funYou might have already read this post below; but why this is still amazing for me, is that it's impressive to see an instrument becoming institutionalised in front of your eyes. For such an infant in instrument terms - BTC is becoming more and more fascinating. If you have not read the year in the life of Bitcoin post, click here. Go back towards the end of last year and look at the dates on each of these posts. Read the text on the chart, why we would only go above the old ATH and why we would drop back under 40k quickly becomes apparent later on. These levels could be calculated as we moved up giving extension levels in un-chartered territory. With Elliott extensions sat at similar levels. Look how this played out... Even more interesting, was that the move started to look like a large scale Wyckoff distribution schematic. Taking us to the key extensions. Confirming both the Climax and the EW extensions; in the new found liquidity pocket. The signs where all there and waiting for the move. Giving now the logic for the targets to the downside. Richard Ney angles also seemed to have similar situations formed around the downside target range. Fast Foreword here and you will see, it's done only what one would have expected it to do. For Bitcoin and a young instrument - you would not believe how powerful this is. Just as I titled the post. This is becoming more and more fun! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
Educational cartoonsOver the last 12 months or so, I spent some time creating cartoons to work around some heavy educational topics. A lot of this is done by using the @TradingView Polyline tool. I wanted to share them in one place along with a chronology that might fit some pieces together for some of you in the community. So let's walk through each; For those who don't know me, I've traded a very long time - from my experience, the major hurdle for any new trader, regardless of the instrument is psychology. People think they can come into a market, follow a guru or watch a youtube video and become industry experts! You need to understand the psychology behind the market and yourself, before you can even start to scratch the surface in terms of trading. To highlight this, take a look (each post - you can click through the image for the full post) Let's start with Homer Simpson. Although this next one is not Cartoon based - there are a bunch of useful resources in each of these books. If you are a complete novice - here's a few pointers from an Easter egg post. Not for the more advanced, just a few tips to you guys starting out. Too often, especially in Crypto I see people rush in on bad advice; I tried to use other styles of cartoons to highlight the obvious - this shows that when the market is exhausted, it cannot be ONLY UP!!! For this, I covered a post as to why people get into Crypto. What is the logic for jumping both feet into a new, unregulated asset class? This one image sums it up nicely! Bitcoin was more than happy - rolling around at the levels we were seeing, expectations and sentiment wanted 100k, 275k - even a million. But there was no supporting evidence to suggest that was where we are headed (yet). You see although the cartoons are simple - they are very specific to the journey - either as a new trader or if your a follower of crypto markets. The main issue I see with Crypto - is the crowd. Therefore you have to analyse the charts from an emotional perspective; some great traders including Elliott, Wyckoff & Gann. Actually understood not technical analysis - but emotional sentiment. Wyckoff in particular spoke about "Composite Man" whereby one can assume the market operators being one force. The game is to obtain profits from retail losses. Last March I was showing the major move down inbound - all I had was stick, people kept telling me it was accumulation and not distribution. Well look how that played out. Once you understand the process - it is much, much easier to make informed decisions with an edge. Instead of playing the fool, learn to think for yourself. You can follow social media personalities - but you will get burned. These guys often make money from social posts and affiliate links not from trading. I know it's tricky, especially when starting out - your often left scratching your head. There's a lot of "un-common" sense in the world. Following or not bothering to learn only leads to failure. You wouldn't perform heart surgery after watching a video. Why throw your hard earned money at an investment with that level of insight? Like I said above - it's a battle between composite man (institutional) vs Retail. Keep in mind - these guys are professional money makers; they spent years practicing the dark arts. They know the tricks. Some of which are not all that obvious. Take dark pools for example. After reading that post, you might need a little cryptotherapy ... Sitting back to relax and not wasting hours on a chart - can actually be beneficial for your health and your wallet. I know it's not easy to say and of course, its even harder to do. But what you need to remember is retail tend to lose 70% + of their trades. So take a few less and search for higher probability. It's a numbers game overall. Either that or you end up like the Perma bulls who followed Plan-B or moon carl into buying the top. You might be buying every tweet made telling you Microstrategy just bought again? You have to remember with the last couple of years - from Brexit, to Trump vs Biden, Covid, Putin - the world is in a volatile state. Don't rush in, assess and take higher probability positions. Sometimes less is actually more. I am speaking for myself - it's something that comes with experience. You can't be a bull forever and not get put on the BBQ. I hope by now you see my point - the educational posts where all there. I've walked through this period like a storyboard. So although we all want Bitcoin and the crypto market to be thrilling! Sometimes it's not, take that time to read, learn & evolve. You will thank yourself later. "THE GREATEST TEACHER - FAILURE IS" This one highlights the sentiment and the crowd. Using Minions to tell the story. I enjoyed writing all of these, some more than others. Here's a DC post. I even put another "full education chronology" post together using the simplified teachings and put them in order. From South Park To Flintstones I hope you enjoyed some, if not all of the posts. Enjoy the rest of the week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
54
Take The Stress Out Of BITCOINEveryone has this burning FOMO; take a chill pill and relax. Bitcoin is becoming institutional, whilst most people will say that means more big money in, it must go up! They miss the fact, the same big money will want to accumulate! It's actually very obvious when you take a step back and look at the big picture. I got a lot of stick last year for posting the Wyckoff distribution schematic (at $62,500) NOBODY believed it and hey we pinged my targets. Once we started to see accumulation of the weekly 4, you could quickly see the levels for an extension and why we would create what is called a truncated weekly 5. I took the time to explain this in August and why the move up to the current ATH was limited at inception. In order to understand, you need to know about money flow. Some people will call this smart money, others only know the term manipulation. When you know what to look for, you can see the pre meditated moves - their flashing with neon lights. I covered the COT situation back in November, which clearly showed massive short positions - Again like the distribution from the weekly 3. I posted to explain the situation and was bombarded with "we are off to the moon", "This is accumulation not distribution" Oh well, guess what we dropped AGAIN. Who was selling the rally? Well, who do you think? I'll give you a clue - COT data painted massive shorts. Which means retail (Dumb money) buying from Wholesale (smart money) - get this, AT A PREMIUM So jump foreword to the current situation, we are monthly 3 down to monthly 4 in the Elliott bias. Every retail trader, especially those carrying red bags. They all want the bottom to be in. Take a look at "smart money" levels. I have used a traffic light system, Red being larger, orange medium and green local. the blue is the live level. There are clear imbalances left un-tapped from above (important for a potential B swing) We have a huge cluster around the 28k levels - again smart money knows where the money sits. This key area was the first line target back in November when looking at destruction after a truncated 5th leg. Using Point and Figure extensions this range was the target, I don't feel the well has been fully tapped. We have some logic for a long drawn out accumulation as is, my current thinking is the A is yet to complete and we are still forming a combo move within that larger leg down. This will complete before we get to witness an explosive B move to chase the liquidity and sucker more dumb money into moon calls. If you hadn't followed the roadmap - I recently did a 3rd update. So in summary, don't jump in, follow the "smart-money" and wait for confirmation. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
14
Money from thin airI recently wrote an article on Bitcoin and Gold. I think what a lot of people, can't seem to comprehend is the difference between money and currency. Store of value and the perception of store of value. The Governments have played this game for hundreds of years. It's a closed loop system, adding Bitcoin is simply another tool for them to assert control - Perma Bulls will say "it's different, the people have control" - well ask the Chinese, or have you provided utility bills and forms of identification to your exchange or broker? Did you need information such as email addresses when making your wallet? Guess what KYC & AML is the disguise used to assert control. The blockchain is an immutable ledger; very powerful for tracing payments, especially useful for taxation. To understand the value you need to look at the scenario with your space suite on - this will help you understand not just Bitcoin or Gold, Bitcoin vs Gold or anything along these lines. If you look at the closed loop systems the governments have created, even if your a Russian Billionaire moving amounts of Bitcoin will end up with reporting being issued to the relevant governments. This is not just a CEO saying yes or no, it will create other types of regulations, possibly even sanctions on the industry. Look at the current situation debt, inflation - all of which are justified with Covid and a war. But the truth is, it's all fueled by greed and stupidity and this is the fundamental issue. Let's start with the federal reserve. Funding rates dropped, No big issue I hear some of you say, it's not crypto or I don't trade that chart. Dig a little deeper; Freddie Mac. With funding rate lower mortgages become harder to obtain, cost of mortgages become higher. The knock on effect, is the rest of the world feels this as a delayed reaction. Back when the US was in all intense and purpose the "Global Bank" it would issue US Dollars in exchange for gold. The rest of the world kinda woke up and requested some of their gold back instead of the I.O.U's (US Dollar paper money) they had been paid with. This leads into the US having what's known as a spending deficit. But what does this mean for us regular citizens? Well, to get to that you need to understand the situation at one level below this; How is money created? see this over simplified sequence. Thus leaving a simplified view something like this. Now you should start to see how it fits together? Who benefits? Well that's the thing, the banks benefit from buying bonds to earn interest, they sell partial amounts to the reserve for extra profit, they can take this profit to repeat the process. Clever, no? So why does the government allow this? Well, their in on the scam. Did you know (1) the Federal reserve have stockholders, made up of now shell corporations, almost un-tracible. In addition to that (2) they earn 6% dividends on this operation. ========================================================================================== Why is this important? Well, this is not an argument for Bitcoin vs other forms of money. This is about understanding where Bitcoin can fit into the operation. The irony of all of this is you have something that makes it easier to track n trace, you have KYC & AML, yet people see Bitcoin as freedom. The only way to beat the system, is to know the system and ride the waves. The scam is not fiat currency, the scam is the control of how fiat is created and leveraged, taxed and re-used with fractional reserve. Who knows, we may see a Bitcoin type bond soon. Then we know where the power sits. Anyway, food for thought. Here's the post on Gold from a few days back. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
B
by Mayfair_Ventures
12