Educational cartoonsOver the last 12 months or so, I spent some time creating cartoons to work around some heavy educational topics. A lot of this is done by using the @TradingView Polyline tool. I wanted to share them in one place along with a chronology that might fit some pieces together for some of you in the community.
So let's walk through each;
For those who don't know me, I've traded a very long time - from my experience, the major hurdle for any new trader, regardless of the instrument is psychology. People think they can come into a market, follow a guru or watch a youtube video and become industry experts! You need to understand the psychology behind the market and yourself, before you can even start to scratch the surface in terms of trading.
To highlight this, take a look (each post - you can click through the image for the full post) Let's start with Homer Simpson.
Although this next one is not Cartoon based - there are a bunch of useful resources in each of these books.
If you are a complete novice - here's a few pointers from an Easter egg post. Not for the more advanced, just a few tips to you guys starting out.
Too often, especially in Crypto I see people rush in on bad advice; I tried to use other styles of cartoons to highlight the obvious - this shows that when the market is exhausted, it cannot be ONLY UP!!!
For this, I covered a post as to why people get into Crypto. What is the logic for jumping both feet into a new, unregulated asset class?
This one image sums it up nicely!
Bitcoin was more than happy - rolling around at the levels we were seeing, expectations and sentiment wanted 100k, 275k - even a million. But there was no supporting evidence to suggest that was where we are headed (yet).
You see although the cartoons are simple - they are very specific to the journey - either as a new trader or if your a follower of crypto markets.
The main issue I see with Crypto - is the crowd. Therefore you have to analyse the charts from an emotional perspective; some great traders including Elliott, Wyckoff & Gann. Actually understood not technical analysis - but emotional sentiment.
Wyckoff in particular spoke about "Composite Man" whereby one can assume the market operators being one force. The game is to obtain profits from retail losses.
Last March I was showing the major move down inbound - all I had was stick, people kept telling me it was accumulation and not distribution. Well look how that played out.
Once you understand the process - it is much, much easier to make informed decisions with an edge. Instead of playing the fool, learn to think for yourself.
You can follow social media personalities - but you will get burned. These guys often make money from social posts and affiliate links not from trading.
I know it's tricky, especially when starting out - your often left scratching your head.
There's a lot of "un-common" sense in the world. Following or not bothering to learn only leads to failure. You wouldn't perform heart surgery after watching a video. Why throw your hard earned money at an investment with that level of insight?
Like I said above - it's a battle between composite man (institutional) vs Retail.
Keep in mind - these guys are professional money makers; they spent years practicing the dark arts. They know the tricks. Some of which are not all that obvious. Take dark pools for example.
After reading that post, you might need a little cryptotherapy ...
Sitting back to relax and not wasting hours on a chart - can actually be beneficial for your health and your wallet. I know it's not easy to say and of course, its even harder to do. But what you need to remember is retail tend to lose 70% + of their trades. So take a few less and search for higher probability. It's a numbers game overall.
Either that or you end up like the Perma bulls who followed Plan-B or moon carl into buying the top.
You might be buying every tweet made telling you Microstrategy just bought again?
You have to remember with the last couple of years - from Brexit, to Trump vs Biden, Covid, Putin - the world is in a volatile state. Don't rush in, assess and take higher probability positions. Sometimes less is actually more.
I am speaking for myself - it's something that comes with experience.
You can't be a bull forever and not get put on the BBQ.
I hope by now you see my point - the educational posts where all there. I've walked through this period like a storyboard. So although we all want Bitcoin and the crypto market to be thrilling! Sometimes it's not, take that time to read, learn & evolve. You will thank yourself later.
"THE GREATEST TEACHER - FAILURE IS"
This one highlights the sentiment and the crowd. Using Minions to tell the story.
I enjoyed writing all of these, some more than others. Here's a DC post.
I even put another "full education chronology" post together using the simplified teachings and put them in order.
From South Park
To Flintstones
I hope you enjoyed some, if not all of the posts.
Enjoy the rest of the week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Mayfairmoney
Take The Stress Out Of BITCOINEveryone has this burning FOMO; take a chill pill and relax. Bitcoin is becoming institutional, whilst most people will say that means more big money in, it must go up! They miss the fact, the same big money will want to accumulate!
It's actually very obvious when you take a step back and look at the big picture.
I got a lot of stick last year for posting the Wyckoff distribution schematic (at $62,500) NOBODY believed it and hey we pinged my targets.
Once we started to see accumulation of the weekly 4, you could quickly see the levels for an extension and why we would create what is called a truncated weekly 5. I took the time to explain this in August and why the move up to the current ATH was limited at inception.
In order to understand, you need to know about money flow. Some people will call this smart money, others only know the term manipulation.
When you know what to look for, you can see the pre meditated moves - their flashing with neon lights.
I covered the COT situation back in November, which clearly showed massive short positions - Again like the distribution from the weekly 3. I posted to explain the situation and was bombarded with "we are off to the moon", "This is accumulation not distribution" Oh well, guess what we dropped AGAIN.
Who was selling the rally? Well, who do you think? I'll give you a clue - COT data painted massive shorts. Which means retail (Dumb money) buying from Wholesale (smart money) - get this, AT A PREMIUM
So jump foreword to the current situation, we are monthly 3 down to monthly 4 in the Elliott bias. Every retail trader, especially those carrying red bags. They all want the bottom to be in. Take a look at "smart money" levels.
I have used a traffic light system, Red being larger, orange medium and green local. the blue is the live level.
There are clear imbalances left un-tapped from above (important for a potential B swing)
We have a huge cluster around the 28k levels - again smart money knows where the money sits.
This key area was the first line target back in November when looking at destruction after a truncated 5th leg. Using Point and Figure extensions this range was the target, I don't feel the well has been fully tapped.
We have some logic for a long drawn out accumulation as is, my current thinking is the A is yet to complete and we are still forming a combo move within that larger leg down. This will complete before we get to witness an explosive B move to chase the liquidity and sucker more dumb money into moon calls.
If you hadn't followed the roadmap - I recently did a 3rd update.
So in summary, don't jump in, follow the "smart-money" and wait for confirmation.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Money from thin airI recently wrote an article on Bitcoin and Gold. I think what a lot of people, can't seem to comprehend is the difference between money and currency. Store of value and the perception of store of value.
The Governments have played this game for hundreds of years. It's a closed loop system, adding Bitcoin is simply another tool for them to assert control - Perma Bulls will say "it's different, the people have control" - well ask the Chinese, or have you provided utility bills and forms of identification to your exchange or broker? Did you need information such as email addresses when making your wallet?
Guess what KYC & AML is the disguise used to assert control. The blockchain is an immutable ledger; very powerful for tracing payments, especially useful for taxation.
To understand the value you need to look at the scenario with your space suite on - this will help you understand not just Bitcoin or Gold, Bitcoin vs Gold or anything along these lines. If you look at the closed loop systems the governments have created, even if your a Russian Billionaire moving amounts of Bitcoin will end up with reporting being issued to the relevant governments. This is not just a CEO saying yes or no, it will create other types of regulations, possibly even sanctions on the industry.
Look at the current situation debt, inflation - all of which are justified with Covid and a war. But the truth is, it's all fueled by greed and stupidity and this is the fundamental issue. Let's start with the federal reserve.
Funding rates dropped, No big issue I hear some of you say, it's not crypto or I don't trade that chart.
Dig a little deeper; Freddie Mac.
With funding rate lower mortgages become harder to obtain, cost of mortgages become higher. The knock on effect, is the rest of the world feels this as a delayed reaction. Back when the US was in all intense and purpose the "Global Bank" it would issue US Dollars in exchange for gold. The rest of the world kinda woke up and requested some of their gold back instead of the I.O.U's (US Dollar paper money) they had been paid with.
This leads into the US having what's known as a spending deficit.
But what does this mean for us regular citizens? Well, to get to that you need to understand the situation at one level below this;
How is money created? see this over simplified sequence.
Thus leaving a simplified view something like this.
Now you should start to see how it fits together?
Who benefits? Well that's the thing, the banks benefit from buying bonds to earn interest, they sell partial amounts to the reserve for extra profit, they can take this profit to repeat the process. Clever, no?
So why does the government allow this? Well, their in on the scam.
Did you know (1) the Federal reserve have stockholders, made up of now shell corporations, almost un-tracible. In addition to that (2) they earn 6% dividends on this operation.
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Why is this important? Well, this is not an argument for Bitcoin vs other forms of money. This is about understanding where Bitcoin can fit into the operation. The irony of all of this is you have something that makes it easier to track n trace, you have KYC & AML, yet people see Bitcoin as freedom. The only way to beat the system, is to know the system and ride the waves. The scam is not fiat currency, the scam is the control of how fiat is created and leveraged, taxed and re-used with fractional reserve.
Who knows, we may see a Bitcoin type bond soon. Then we know where the power sits.
Anyway, food for thought.
Here's the post on Gold from a few days back.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Do you know where the money sits?All too often new retail traders are suckered into brokers with large sign up bonuses. These are often referred to as "B" book brokers whereby 9 times out of 10 your money never even hits the real market. They know 90% of people lose 90% of their accounts in 90 days. It doesn't stop there, you either have an influencer who doesn't even trade a live account, giving you analysis - or you are educated on some system or strategy that revolves around retail mentality.
Understanding money-flow can put you on the front foot.
So first of all; Buy and sell side liquidity are areas of price in which buy stops and or sell stops are mostly residing. If you can understand the higher time frame perspectives and see where the "money" is.
This can also be knows as Supply & Demand levels. (visual below)
Back in January 2021; I was showing why these liquidity levels where likely to be used for the re-accumulation phase.
This was highlighting the bias to collect liquidity and move on up to unchartered territory. With a little knowledge of the bias (using Elliott Wave) you could see it was likely accumulation and it's targets up into new levels price had not been before.
You had a pullback level into the "auction" area - thus to pick up it's last round of liquidity before the explosive move up. This was the level in February 2021.
And what does it do?
Combining the two, would give a bias, a pullback level. That plus the extension levels would give a clear target for a move up. This can be seen here on the left for the 3 weekly in Elliott terms and the first distribution (Wyckoff schematic) but over simplified, this is where the money is sat (orders above) and stops below. This giving a pullback target.
As you can see it only followed the money flow;
Once you get a handle on the money levels - you can start to build a plan around it. Price will seek the liquidity in order to either reverse or continue in within it's expansion move.
Step forward into the 4 of the weekly Elliott wave count, which would equate to a type of re-accumulation on the larger scale.
In August we saw the move up and it's pullback into the smaller liquidity level.
This is here -
So as you can see, it's only following money flow.
This follows a very simple pattern which consists of 3 phases;
1) Contraction
2) Expansion
3) Profit taking.
If you see price as reversing at the buy or sell side of liquidity, then you trade the developed price action, if you see price continue to move through the buy or sell side liquidity, then you stick to the order flow of price and trade the buy or sell side that it is, towards the next price objectives.
So at this point here; we had tagged a Fibonacci extension level. We have orders and stops above, we move up again to make a slightly newer high - in essence trapping traders into the wrong side of the trade.
Once you see both sides of liquidity - the next challenge is to simply develop a bias. For me EW is useful, not to trade every swing, but to know where on the roadmap we are. You can then define more objective price targets for pullbacks, entries or exits.
I hope you can start to see how this fits together?
In September I posted this move from the accumulation as to how we could see the liquidity levels above, add the extensions and you now know where we where heading. Using the EW logic as well - it painted the Elliott Weekly 5 (as in the August image) which had liquidity levels in neon lights.
From there liquidity wanted to gather and drop. Whilst influencers where calling for $100k, 135, 275, 300k. ZERO logic supporting their arguments. So what did we do?
So we go seeking liquidity and then the drop.
Now you can use this information for the next move - we know we where going from Distribution (weekly 5 EW) down to a new accumulation. Clearly the larger institutional players where selling into the retail who assumed it was going to moon. (wholesale selling at a premium to retail) keep this in mind.
Once you got your bias and you know where the money sits, it's pretty obvious to trade these moves up and down.
So from here you can look for the contraction levels, this will give a good feel for where the money sits.
You have a bias. And now you have the logic for the next moves.
Here's a question for you....
Enjoy the rest of the weekend!
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Here's the largest educational post you will find on @TradingView in a single post (click on image)
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Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Community Discussion - Bitcoin and goldBefore you fall off your high horse, you crypto cowboys - I have been in Bitcoin since 2011. I'm one of the lucky ones, this post isn't a "Bash at crypto" it's about giving you some insights, some logic and something to consider when making an argument for both the pros and cons.
So to start with; one topic that I feel many newer retail traders and social influencers are confused about, is the definition of store of value. There's a debate about bitcoin being one or not - there is also a question as to will Bitcoin become a digital gold or is it more likely a payment system (think Swift or visa).
When defining a store of value we can simply say - it's social construction, if enough people agree it will have an intrinsic future value then it could be deemed as a store of value. The argument often goes something like "But it only has 21m coins - EVER" That is not enough of an argument to justify why we can warrant and justify $100k a coin, $1million a coin.
In gold terms - Gold was used as a form of "transfer" during the Egyptian, Samarians and Incan era's. However, gold wouldn't be used as widespread money until 2,500 years later, back to Egypt where they did use gold bars in set weights for exchanges, although the most common method of exchange was mass commodity bartering for a long, long time.
The social construction meant that it was a rare earth material that could be easily divisible, weighed and therefore transferable.
I often see arguments online about "how do you carry all this gold" Bitcoin can fit in my pocket, "ah send gold to Ukraine, ah what if the boat is sunk?" This is small mindedness and the argument is only to justify, re-enforce even - one's own beliefs. You can easily say what if you lose a private key - there's a fellow Welshman who's 50,000 Bitcoin is currently sat in a landfill site.
Both can be lost, stolen and confiscated - so don't be fooled, yes you might own a strong of words that constitute as a private key but with the KYC & AML - governments will end up with more control and traceability when it comes to crypto. Like it or not, its fact.
So the upside;
Knowing the difference between money and currency;
As I noted, in France - they seem to call crypto "Crypto-Money" I found it interesting when I first heard this with my broken French. But logically it makes sense.
But what does it matter? Well, it matters really as to crypto/Bitcoin becoming a digital store of value or a payment exchange mechanism. You Maxies will say "it's both" again, this can't be. For one simple, obvious reason - RISK ON vs RISK OFF.
Another well used argument for orange pilling retail is "Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation" then this argument turns into, well look at what it did back last year. Which is no different than me saying I could run the 100m in 11 seconds flat at 16. Now at 37, I'd be lucky to do it in 20 ;-)
What you need to think about is not the small picture, but the long term adoption. What will drive it to become a standard. A dream and the desire to own a Lambo one day is not enough. Which then comes back full circle, how do we socially engineer - with a compelling argument that Bitcoin can be, either a payment system infrastructure for things like taxation, loans, salaries, ease of audit for the governments. Or a store of value - digital gold?
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Dig a little deeper;
The first official declaration of gold as money came around 600 BC, where King Alyattes of Lydia, an ancient kingdom in modern-day Turkey, oversaw the first recorded mint. An alloy of silver and gold known as electrum was used to create coins, which were stamped with pictures that denoted denominations. Other civilisations soon followed suit, with Darius I of Persia introducing a 95.83% pure 8.4g gold coin, which was worth 20 silver coins. Much like the centralised monetary systems of today, Darius saw the minting of coin as a royal prerogative and gave the death penalty to Persian governors who tried to mint their own coins.
Fast foreword from there - President Ulysses S. Grant, drafted a policy to sell Treasury gold at weekly intervals to pay off the national debt, stabilize the dollar, and boost the economy. What this means is that the value of each dollar could be measured using the weight of gold (rare earth material) this is what I believe we are lacking for true Bitcoin adoption - the truest form of stability. To beat a 7%+ inflation rate, you can't be buying Bitcoin at 69k and be happy as an inflation beater at it's current 39k levels.
Jump foreword again;
President Richard Nixon announced a bold economic plan, severing of the U.S. dollar's ties to gold.
This was a critical point in time - The US had a large gold reserve, they in essence become a type of banker for the world. Other countries would exchange gold for dollars meaning the US where in fact exporting their own paper in exchange for rare earth materials. Other countries would use this paper system to exchange everything from chocolate, to crude oil. When Nixon changed this, countries become fearful that the dollar had less spending power, driving less security (creating risk on) most countries then started returning the dollar in exchange for their gold back. (dollars where now just an IOU).
In modern day terms this flows into the companies around the world, retail traders and of course the general public.
But one thing is very, very interesting.
When the stock market falls off - money flows out and back into gold.
Here's the Dow Jones 2007-2009 period:
And here's the gold chart same period:
The only reason I included this here, is that although it is obvious, it's not obvious to all. The point I'm making is that we need to consider that if all payments are made in bitcoin - no reason to cash out; what will happen to the risk on/risk off situation? So we buy a share in Amazon let's say and that's currently $2,910 - we have Bitcoin at $39,150. Now Amazon goes up 5% but Bitcoin drops 12% where do we run? Or do we just claim "diamond hands, buy the dip"
It's these types of discussions I would love to discuss and have a wide array of opinions and thoughts from the community. Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years, other currencies (actually 100%) of other currencies have all gone to zero value. Why will a new contender be any different?
Let's get the discussion started!
If you haven't seen my Bitcoin moves - see this below.
I compiled a post of the last year of publicly available posts and each swing/move as to why I was seeing the moves like this.
I've also covered a ton of lessons here in this post - click on the image to see them all.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Exceptional times Watching the charts over the last 2 years now have been "INTERESTING" & even then, it's probably an understatement.
But in all fairness; although the news is often priced into the chart, we have seen exceptional circumstances. We saw a de-coupling of Britain from the European Union, what a cock up that was & only now the fall out's are becoming obvious for many.
We had the whole Trump <> Biden saga, possibly the most intense and viewed battle for the power seat! Some people say Trump would have finished world war 3 before it began, others say Biden struggles to start his pace maker. (not an American, or bothered by the political situation). But you have to take note of the global impact these events have had, over all tradable instruments and asset classes.
We can't forget this as also been during the COVID era. World wide disruption; amazing how it's ravaging the air above 4 feet, but if you sit in a restaurant - it passes over your head. We have seen world leaders have BBQ's at the G7, Policies being changes prior to campaigns and ever increasing vaccine mandates. All of this will impact the charts!
Now we are heading towards a potential world war - Politicians, screwing whoever they want. Simply because they can. Another major issue for the charts and various instruments; you have to sometimes wait for the market to settle or search for unusual opportunities.
** This is not political or giving any bias or view in any way**
It's merely highlighting what we have been through these last couple of years, market sentiment will change and evolve with such events. So the message is stay safe, think of the impact such events could have when trading - deploy proper risk management!
Have a great week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Quantitative easing - inflation of the economyMany people simply do not understand economics; and why should they - it's Foooooking complex.
I hear and read, all the time. Bitcoin solves inflation - without any real sound logic as to why or how...
When you travel back in time, the monetary systems have changed and evolved but are moving further and further away from the "gold" standard. Now as a crypto maxi, you might see this as a good thing. However, it also has it's drawdowns. The reason Gold and silver has been used for thousands of years is that it cannot be made and holds a rare earth material (Value) this is not as simple as saying "a store of value" and this I feel is where the confusion comes in.
So let's explain how the governments use quantitative easing to cheat the public.
In simple terms this is a policy in which the central bank's try to increase the liquidity in its financial system, in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity. Or so we are told.
If you look at this chart going back to 1965.
You will see the QE levels of rapid supply of money - with nothing under pinning it. This is where the Gold standard is lost. However, the story does not end there for Gold & Silver.
Take a look at this;
This is the Qualitative economic impact of the quantitative easing. This shows, the asset price increases and then falls off a cliff. All whilst the Money (paper money) flattens out. So with the injection into the economy (wink wink) the demand increases, the price increases and with a slight of hand - we have more borrowed dollars, less tangible assets to support it.
This isn't just a US problem, nor a European issue - it's a global, corrupt government issue. This is why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Take a look at countries such as Australia;
These curves are parabolic.
How's about Russia - could get even worse after this war;
In summary it can help an economy out of recession, but it can drive an economy to recessions also.
So why or how does Gold and Silver fit in? Well, as the value of money (cash) drops down, spending power is robbed, pensions depleted and costs sky rocket. The Dollars in circulation can buy less "store of value assets" - thus driving the price of said assets up. This is where many people get confused with the adoption of Bitcoin. They assume that with Bitcoin being decentralised (kinda) - you have to remember the rules and regulations imposed on money in and out of the system (KYC & AML) - on an immutable ledger; this is optimal for taxation, identification and traceability by the way. The main issue is the store of value is only driven by what's in circulation, how much demand and how accessible the supply. It is already stated that 91% of all of the BTC in existence is in the hands of the Elite. The value per coin is only the supply vs demand battle, it's similarities to gold means it can be lost, stolen or stored.
But it's the underpinning method the governments use to increase the value of gold - that makes it likely to remain "THE WAY" for the foreseeable future. If I am honest I see Bitcoin or another crypto taking over the cash/payment system - more than I see it as a digital gold.
Anyways - have a great weekend, I thought this would be an interesting topic for discussion.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin is becoming institutional Over the last 14 - months I have made these posts public here on @TradingView
What I found interesting is the level of respect that Bitcoin is building, many traders are looking for short term gains - but they also contradict themselves with the idea of possessing DIAMOND HANDS!!
Once you have a feel of the trend bias, it's actually becoming so respectful of these levels, its incredible to see this play out. If you want to follow the path, you need to know where it's been, where it's at and why it wants to go where it goes next. So let's look back all the way to December 2020.
You can click on each of these images for the actual posts; So in this post I covered why the move would link itself to the stock market and what this means not only for bitcoin, but the whole crypto space.
Jump forward a month and I was highlighting the Re-accumulation phase we where seeing. This is key, it led to the "value area" levels later on.
As you can see from this post below; the value area was defined and this gives a key point to anchor from.
Play out the image and you can see the significance of the level.
But, that is not all - go forward again and you will see this level being used a second time.
Now if you don't follow the education you might not appreciate why this level is significant. So here's a full post on education. This covers an awful lot of content in one post. (click the image)
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This is where it gets even more interesting;
In March I covered first the Logic for it's drop back down at a key level for distribution.
Followed by the roadmap we where likely to see. Now I don't use Elliott Waves for the ins n outs of it. I use it predominantly as a tool for bias.
So with the bias in mind and some logic for the drop; what did we see? Well - the drop.
This for me was the foundation of the "institutional" Bitcoin.
In the roadmap I posted why we where likely to go into a range - defined;
As you can see from the date - this was already written in the logic, back from the value area's anchor point.
Fast forward a few months again and you will see - nothing but respect;
As we moved away from the bottom levels (thus the weekly 4) we saw very little volume in the move up, so added to the logic as to why we would likely see a truncated 5 which would equate to the monthly 3.
This was the 24th of August.
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The next part, was just as impressive to watch (the charts that is) - when I saw the low volume move up and the move looking like it would need a drop quicker than expected. I spent the time to forecast the next set of key levels; again, into unchartered territory.
When you take out a previous high, you should expect the price to rush passed and attract many new buyers - but yet we did not. (I'll cover this next) So the forecasted level was drafted in September.
This was then what we would now see as the current ATH (at the time of writing).
Above I mentioned why the logic was already there for a truncated 5th wave up on the weekly. So for this, you could see inside the COT data @TradingView has recently added some features on COT (Commitment of Traders). But here's the post I did on the COT at the time.
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So the logic would imply we saw the weekly 3,4 & 5 making a monthly 3 and therefore a drop down to 4 Monthly. If you revisit my comment from the image in August you will see the text in the centre of the image, explaining we would likely see 40k fast after going just above 65k.
Therefore - the respect of the instrument is growing, we are seeing more and more institutional players, meaning this will become easier and easier to read in time.
I have covered Dark pools in another educational post; You should understand this concept if you are not yet familiar with it.
Large players entering the space does not always lead to a long position - as we can see from the current price levels.
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So for the next moves we can start to identify the swings inside the 4th of the Monthly, this in preparation for the 5th Monthly. If you have followed my streams or @Paul_Varcoe - you already know where we think the price is currently sat.
If you don't follow (well you should). Then in essence Paul will cover the shorter term move.
But longer term - I feel we are still making an A of the 4. This does not have to be deep. Just painful for retail. If you know how composite man operates, this is a signature move, being played to perfection.
Anyways! Have a great week. Thanks for taking the time to read through this.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Do you know how to use trendline breaksNot often do you get an opportunity to show a real world example of a text book move - live.
Here's a simple educational post showing the two major types of breaks of the trend.
This is the current price level as of the 24th of Jan 2022.
You can see this as a corrective break - the main reason for this, is that the chart is only the 1 hour, whereas if you zoom out to the 4 hour you will see this move about to happen on the chart.
If you go back only a couple of days - you will spot this on the chart.
Here you can look at the Stochastic indicator and see what it's showing during the move up the trendline. How you can anticipate the break and even have a pretty good idea as to it being either corrective or impulsive ahead of time.
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If you are unsure of how to apply trendline or where they should go; take a look at this post below; click the image for the post.
Last year I managed to catch a live example of another text book move; this was the move down (distribution) on the Bitcoin move from 64k. Using slightly more advanced techniques. But it's similar core concepts at work. If you haven't seen the Wyckoff distribution post, again here's the link.
And Finally - the biggest dose of education you will find on @tradingview_
I hope this is useful to you, if you are trading crypto right now.
Have a great week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
That song by ElvisWhen your fake guru is $90,000 off a December close.
It's time to have a serious look at your technical analysis.
Although everyone wanted 100k for Christmas - the logic and reasoning was simply missing (can't even say it was flawed).
The roadmap pointed out the move, with sound reasoning behind why we where likely to go up, down, up and back down AGAIN .
This is the updated version from the first in March last year...
It is not rocket science:
And yet, unless it's plastered with calls for 100k+ it is wrong.
We are not Bearish Bitcoin or crypto, in-fact - quite the opposite, all we want is a good spot buy for the long time hold. We have played this game far too long to care about the sentiment of the retail crowd, the negativity for not posting full on Bullish signals.
All we setout to do was give real Technical Analysis, providing logic and methods for why Bitcoin is doing what' it's doing.
We give the distribution for the major drop.
Even the levels for the move up to it's current ATH.
And going above and beyond not just to tell you when - but providing the logic so you can fish for yourself!
Here's the biggest educational post you will find here on TradingView.
So don't be the fool, don't rush in. Understand how to get in...
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin over simplifiedIn the post going back to February last year, I talked about the "VALUE AREA"
This level was the start of the Wyckoff movement for me, where the distribution would start to fall into place. You will see the value area highlighted in the main post with an orange horizontal line.
Press play on this and you will see much like a magnet, price comes back and stays around this level for a considerable amount of time. Starting around mid May.
There was a key hidden level inside this range, that made it very attractive, in addition it give some clue towards the instrument now being institutionalised.
I've covered this in several streams and posts - much like this image below;
The Wyckoff distribution (click below) for the educational post;
Came with very little surprise, it was clearly exhausted, we had seen the re-accumulation phase - making it the optimal target for a 3 wave weekly around the 62k level (first long time ATH in the EW roadmap)
I am often asked about where next, for me personally. Not much has changed over this last year - the only real surprise was that we didn't get 75k-83k as a key level during the wave 5 up on the weekly. Seeing only $69,000 instead.
There are a couple of key levels in which myself and @Paul_Varcoe will be covering in our upcoming streams. But for now, it's fascinating seeing the price being pulled towards the value area range that's been sitting there this last year.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Roadmap updateTrading is 100% about perspective -
Many people think markets only go up. And for some time, they sure feel like that. I wanted to highlight, the moves we have spoken about since covering BTC and highlight where we are in this cycle. Knowing is useful and for a longer term "investment" I have specific criteria I want.
I must say I have been very grateful for the opportunities in crypto, and Bitcoin over the years. Been investing in BTC since 2011. So by no means a perma Bear.
Here's an update of the view I shared in March and as you can see - no surprises or deviations here. Am I long again yet - well, no! Not yet. Here's the logic for why not yet.
In March this year I posted a post below; March the 18th.
Then followed through with an exact location map on March the 26th.
Both are following suit. And here's the updates.
And the Elliott wave;
So what's changed? Well not much to be honest.
Looking at the Fib extensions; I feel we might not go as high as initially forecasted before the monthly 4 starts on it's journey, the momentum is feeling very similar to the BC, UT and now expecting a type of UTAD in Wyckoff terms. These all marry the Elliott extension levels.
When the time is right I'll be jumping back in - not shorting, but not long "YET"
Here's the Wyckoff lesson at the top of the previous ATH.
Take it easy!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
ANIME series for BitcoinI spent most of 2020 playing around on @TradingView commentating and creating educational content, predominantly around Bitcoin.
Here's an anime series to re-emphasize what was posted and shared here.
One large main post covering every single element of the move up to 64k, down to 28k and back up to the current ATH - as well as back down to the 40k level.
When I started posting the roadmap and the rocket posts - many people simply did not want to believe it.
Understanding why the market does what it does is key when trading any instrument. I showed the rocket post and roadmap all based on the larger Dow theory principle with a splash of Elliott and Wyckoff inside;
This is how the rocket played out...
Calling a Wyckoff distribution when most guru's where already screaming for a 100k move up. I spent the time to explain exactly why this was not going to happen.
And yet many people spent months in a depressed state;
I covered as much as I could as these moves played out and spent the time not only calling the moves, but educating on the logic behind such moves.
The roadmap was painted in March (publicly) here's the update;
I shared all of this info ahead of time - all in the tradingview posts.
Even why we would hit the current ATH was shared.
The outcome was obvious;
Yet we had fake guru's and moon calls. The sentiment was just too obvious for this move, when you follow Elliott and have an appreciation of Wyckoff and Gann. I simply stood here and watched the sheep to slaughter.
Majority of retail, still don't understand - or maybe cannot comprehend who is selling into the rally. Again shared the reasons for such events.
A lot of this info was summarised as a Christmas gift.
This post covers everything from simple trendlines, all the way through to more complex techniques and even the Metaverse.
The main reasons for the cartoons is to draw attention to serious topics, whilst making light of the education and the content.
It's time you learnt to beat this crypto game!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage Over the last year, I have been making my Bitcoin trades public. I have been using the @TradingView charts to show the logic for each Bitcoin swing. I have used cartoon posts for the explanation of sometimes technical topics. All with the view of educating the community here on Tradingview.
I have traded for over 21 years now, covering all kinds of instruments, found out the hard ways - the strategies that work and the ones that did not!
In the last year, the education and logical posts have been posted here to grow awareness of how the emotional sentiment of the retail crowd is leveraged by the institutional players. All I had from each Bearish BTC call was - "it's not distribution, its accumulation" or "PlanB is not wrong" This only shows the strength of the sentiment & as a professional trader, it's useful when doing technical analysis to know the reasons why we are likely to go up or down. We all know the crowd is wrong 75%+ of the time.
The retail sentiment only want opinions that are in line with their own purchases and beliefs.
Sometimes, to win the war. It's the little battles that count.
I have spent this last year looking on at the market, like Batman assessing the situation.
In March 2021 I posted the rocket call showing exactly why we where doing what it should be.
I explained the logic as to why the drop was coming - seeing it being cut down by Wolverine;
This was covered in the logic behind Wyckoff DISTRIBUTION
From this move down, everyone was expecting a 100k plus rally - we had PlanB call for 92k in April, 98k November and 135k in December. And the crowd only cheered,
as Chaos surrounded the crypto market - Hulk was running wild!
Yes all of these are drawings!
The roadmap allowed us to remain calm as we had already anticipated the move up from the 2017 move, the extension levels up to 60k, the Wyckoff distribution in play and the extension down for the drop (as seen in the rocket move)
Just like Deadpool - calm and confident!
Retail crowd much like Groot had one thing to say "100k, 100k, 100k"
The levels had been pre set - check out the date
And up to test it, fake out and drop after using the level as strong resistance.
So whilst all the fake guru's where selling themselves as a crypto Ironman
With shinny indicators that made them look advanced.
The only logic that worked was to stick to the plan, hang around. Watching the chaos from afar, and getting ready to swing into action.
All of this can be seen here (click the link)
And all of the education covering the logic for calling these moves - was posted as a Christmas gift recently, all in one place!
Over the next couple of weeks, myself and @Paul_Varcoe will be posting and streaming here on Tradingview with the updates to the roadmap. Stay tuned!
Enjoy the weekend!!
THE END
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Lessons for the year and into 2022Over the last year I have spent a lot of time on @TradingView writing up educational content, I have tried to apply drawings to my charts to express some lessons in simple yet easy to follow and understand walkthroughs.
Here's a chronology regardless of your experience and level.
Let's start with Psychology - this is the life and soul of the market, if humans where not so predictable then we would have a completely different looking chart. Humans spot patterns - even when they are not there. We try and assume, we get greedy, fearful and often just outright stupid. Entering trades at wrong times, listening to fake guru's and not doing the work ourselves. When you understand the emotional aspect of trading, your already 50% of the way to becoming a successful trader!
In this post (click the images for each individual post) - you will see how the basic emotions work at various aspects of the chart.
In a more simplistic form I broke the market phases down in relation to the post above, this time using the Simpsons as the best way to let traders relate to such phases;
Homer is brilliant!
Again - once you understand some of the basic psychology you can start to create a framework around investing, it will help build a plan. In this next post I wrote about the reasons why people get into crypto - the thrill of the ride, the desire to make it.
Once you got a feel for what it is your looking to do and you are wanting to play in the crypto sphere - here's a post that will help you on assessing an alt coin, the process of going through your own due diligence rather than listening to a youtube guru. A lot of what you need to know when searching for the next big thing, is already written in the business itself - this will include everything from the founders, the plan, money raised and so on.
Ok so let's step over to some of the technical aspects of trading;
Here's a post on the simple trendline - for you experienced traders jump this and the next Moving average post.
From trendlines to Moving Averages;
These kinds of tools coupled with some basic off the shelf indicators will get you going on your your journey - but you have to remember over 70% of retail traders lose money. There's even an industry quote that states 90% of new traders lose 90% of their account in 90 days. When everyone is using the same Moving averages, MACD and RSI - all it does is lends itself to the type of emotional analysis mentioned in the psychology section. So trade carefully.
ALWAYS deploy proper risk management and do your own due diligence.
Here's the basic on using the MACD if you do want to use it along with the 50 and 200 Moving Averages ;-)
All new traders want to buy the dip! But how; well here's a little advice on that too.
This is where it get's interesting;
Going back over 100 years there was a cluster of hyper intelligent traders, these techniques are still widely used today and just as relevant in crypto as they where for commodities and stocks when they where first introduced.
Here's the introduction;
Personally I feel these guys where not technical analysts but emotional analysts - they understood various aspects of why the charts do what they do, why the human mindset drives the target levels, the patterns are created and so on.
From here we can cover the technical viewpoint;
Here is an intro to Dow theory...
Elliott waves;
And even Wyckoff;
It was this post that many of you know me for - this was the method used in March to call the incoming top for Bitcoins first major move down.
However, the greatest tool of all for doing any kind of Technical Analysis is likely to be Fibonacci;
A very old technique and amazing to see the levels get tagged each step of the way, this can be applied to various other strategies and techniques.
The whole crypto space is filled with rubbish advice, scams and people claiming to make money. The truth is, like every other trading instrument - it's a dog eat dog world and you need to be able to take care of yourself. I wrote this article explaining why common sense is not that common anymore - logic seems to go out of the window when it comes to crypto. So please keep a level head.
Life ain't linear - Yes this is a drawing; took AGES!!!
I've tried to cover as much useful info for the @TradingView community as possible throughout the year. Here's another couple of posts that you might find interesting;
Do you know what is going on, inside the candle?
Chart patterns?
Even covered the art of the Pivot Point.
What don't you know about dark pools?
Or the difference in Volume profiles?
Or even if your interested in making your own indicators?
And to finish with on the technical side- Here's a couple of good books to get you going into 2022!
If you haven't followed me throughout the year and seeing this for the first time - here's every swing & supporting logic for the Bitcoin move throughout the year.
And to finish with NFT's and the METAVERSE.
and this one;
Hope you have had a great 2021! 2022 will be even better! Have a great NEW YEAR's eve and see you on the other side!!!
Feel free to give me a follow here and comments always welcome!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin Mastery These last few months have been amazing to see Bitcoin become more professionalised as a trading instrument. When I started trading BTC back in 2011 - it was a punt, a gamble and something I hoped would grow but wasn't sure.
Throughout 2021 you have seen each swing tag key levels - value ranges, MP patterns, Fibonacci extensions and clusters. Respect Gann and Ney levels. It's been very interesting to see an instrument evolve in front of our eyes.
Although I covered recently the full years worth of BTC movement;
This all comes back to the retail psychology which was covered in the Simpson post.
To see the price respect these levels only shows the presence of institutional money flow, pulling the strings. We can see similar respect starting to form in ETH (Ethereum) too;
Looking back to this latest move up from the 28,800 level you can see the move did exactly as was expected in August.
Tagging to the pip on the way up;
In October I was showing why we where tagging a distribution level high - guess what;
There you go again.
When you put all of these components together, it's clear to see where exactly we are on the roadmap.
2022 - will be a magical year but it's not going to be as easy as many retail traders would assume or like it to be.
Have a great New Years! See you on the other side!!!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Happy Holidays cryptoverse! Happy Holidays - MERRY CHRISTMAS to you all!
It's been another BRILLIANT year for Bitcoin - Thanks @TradingView for the charts.
Here's the last post for the year!
Bitcoin has become more and more respectful as it's become more institutionalised, still amazing to see! here's the post covering the year's summary (click the image)
Whilst many where expecting Lambo's for Christmas - Composite Man came and put the spanner in the works.
So it's best to take a little time off over the holiday season;-
Go and relax - enjoy family & friends!
Maybe Santa will bring something nice for your stocking.
Until next year! I wish you all, the very best.
Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Stone age story BITCOINIn a story as old as time (well nearly) - People jump into the shiny instruments mostly due to friends or neighbours telling them how shiny this is.
And for a while it seems to be going to plan!
Excited to watch every little move! Oh boy your going to be rich!!!
Your a GENIUS!!!
However, here comes a wrecking ball - the Hurricane, although on the surface it looks so innocent.
You bought with leverage and managed to buy the tops - AGAIN.
What you going to tell the wife?
NO Lambo for Christmas?
HANG ON - it's moving up again...!!! Oh yeah c'mon baby!!!
The local guru and social influencer said it's going to 135k by December, must be right. After all he's an influencer!
Then back to reality.
Guy's trading is a game of ups and downs, markets need corrections it's actually healthy. Nothing has changed, the move all year has played out exactly as it should. Take a look at this chart (click the image below) you will see it's been very respectful and accurate.
Enjoy the rest of the week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
A year in the life of BitcoinAs a professional trader, I have been lucky enough to have been buying Bitcoin since 2011. Here's a post showing what I have seen this last year, which to be fair has been amazing to see first hand.
I remember the buzz of trading penny stocks 20 years ago and crypto seems to have brought that excitement back for many! However, for Bitcoin this year has been proof of the institutional players joining the club. Which is not always as it seems - many retail assume more big players in and the price only moves up.
Here's a view from the last year;
December 2020; (click image for post)
For the first time you where able to see decent correlation with Bitcoin and other instruments pitted against the Dollar. Which meant it was beginning to be taken seriously by the powers that be. The reason I give some history above was to explain that during the 2017 rally, you could see the move was hype rather than large volume from "fund type investors". As a VC investor in technologies around Cyber, AI and Blockchain looking back at that period you could clearly see that it was in the transition period. Many blockchain projects where being invested in by other VC's on one pre-condition. Where the price of Bitcoin was on the day or during the week. If it was up, they would sign a deal, if it was down they would walk away. It was a time of uncertainty for old school money.
Post the drop and run from early 2018 through to 2019. Other projects came to fruition that meant even in the investment world it moved from Technology focused to financial capability driven. By this I mean, when investment came to blockchain prior to 2018 it was a technology investment (although yes it still is today) you need to understand the operators in the investment world. Beyond venture capital you have other entities and these often have even more diversified portfolio's - they include Private Equity, Hedge funds, Family offices and several others. Unlike VC's who have a focus (more often than not) these are what a venture capital fund is often made up of. It's these guys putting the cash into the funds, they also invest in properties and other such investments. Enter the Funds and ETF's in particular.
In chart terms this could be seen as Re-accumulation; although the earlier adopters (myself included) where in the instrument before the MEGA players came to town. Click the image for the post **
This was posted in January this year showing the forecasted targets to the next level.
In February I posted an article about the value area;
The value area proved to be very accurate and therefor the justification of the MEGA players starting to take some control of the instrument.
As I saw the psychology of the retail play into the hands of these tactics, every day become more fascinating to watch key levels being used and the retail crowd being controlled and herded like cattle into the waves. I covered some of this in a psychology based post again in March - click link through for post.
This literally was merriment of a technology becoming a real world asset!
As you can see here - this solidified the professional & strong hands not only operating in the space, but controlling it.
This next one - most of my followers know me for. This is where the masses where shouting "accumulation" Again, as clear as day the signs where written and mapped out.
Here's the AFTER image.
So as you are starting to see, it's now playing by the rules - all of this in front of my eyes.
Later in March I wrote out a full on Roadmap; Click image
I covered here the logic for the waves.
And obviously;
In May this year I covered the basics of Wyckoff and why the Rocket call and the Roadmap where viable options. This was featured as an editor's pick by @TradingView
In April; I posted about the Grayscale discount rates.
With Grayscale, Wyckoff and the Elliott situation, we ultimately saw the drop from the previous ATH and the retail crowd had Billions wiped off their positions in a very short period.
In June I was talking about the emotional analysis and why these types of tools work so well.
July - Highlighting the lack of common sense;
August - Why it's not a simple line.
Yes that's a drawing not an image ;-)
End of August - the pullback for the long position up to the new ATH.
September was "what we are going to need for mass adoption"
Even covered some insight to Dark Pools;
Fast foreword a couple of months and we could forecast the monthly 3 situation in terms of Elliott Wave;
The above was the 30th of September into a new high (grey top level) covering clusters below;
October - highlighted the retail sentiment.
Fuelled by this guy;
I had a ton of people come and say "he's not wrong" forgetting he called 92k in April. Retail seeing what they wanted to see and not what's in front of them.
On the 10th of November we saw the September level being used as clear resistance.
In November I talked through the money flow and the COT situation currently;
See link to post in related ideas.
As a professional trader of over 20 years and an active VC investor I am overall Bullish Bitcoin, I do however have one slight hesitation. Mainly to do with the Governments and people in control of the financial systems globally. I covered this in another post - Now I am not saying it's what it is, I am saying "What if"...
So here's the year of Bitcoin posts, running commentary and some education in between.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
So what is the METAVERSE?Think of it like building blocks of a new form of communication.
Now in the vague sense, you could replace metaverse with cyberspace. And for you less technology versed people, think of it like "online" or "digital" a lot of the time the term will be referring to an array of various technologies.
Like most things in life there are pro's and cons to this - whilst playing games with your friends or taking zoom meetings for work could be done face to face but not face to face using holographic technology, other elements of the metarverse will include things like NFT's, AI, AR and OBVIOUSLY Crypto along with other elements such as digital land.
Think of it like a fake world - where you can social distance till your hearts content.
As we transition into the METAVERSE;
AI, AR as well as limiting and restricting our own travel. Monitoring each and every interaction let alone every transaction.
So to over simplify the metaverse - think of it like the way we interact with technology rather than a specific technology. Evolution, a few years back a business partner bought me an Amazon Echo device for Christmas, I said to him what will I do with that?! I ended up with electricity going down for two days and realised how much I used it, I now have 11 Alexa's at home, lights, heaters, TV controls, surround sound, even heated beds. All controlled by Alexa. So much so, I can connect through the app of one of the cars and Alexa will tell me where the car is or how much fuel is left.
So this all started long ago - imagine the game sims;
You will soon be able to visit virtual galleries, play board games or online games with your friends like being in the same room. Go shopping and pay in crypto.
Hang a digital Mona Lisa on the pretend wall that you can view when you stick your fighter jet helmet on.
As we have seen with NFT's it has the potential for a big play overall, it's just a question of finding the correct problem to wrap such a solution. Whilst NFT's give a clear advantage to content creators by paying royalties throughout the process - with such high gas fees, the advantage is somewhat limited. At the moment we are going through the teething process in a very infant market. What can it become? I don't know.
I wrote a post a few weeks ago on NFT's - be good to get your opinions on this topic too. click the link to follow through to the post.
It al translates to a digital economy in essence. where people can create, buy, and sell goods. And, in the more idealistic visions of the metaverse, it's interoperable, allowing you to take virtual items like clothes or cars from one platform to another.
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Pro's n con's of the MetaVerse;
Ok as a pro - it's pretty cool technology and as I mentioned about my Alexa consumption, I am sure there will be practical applications for it. There of course will be completely pointless use cases also. This is where my first fear comes in; the definition of a market bubble.
Then you read news like this...
Tokens.com Corp, a Canadian investment firm focused on crypto assets, announced it had closed on the “largest metaverse land acquisition in history” through its subsidiary Metaverse Group, whose real estate portfolio spans several different virtual worlds and is reportedly worth “in excess of seven figures.”
So the trick is clearly going to be how companies monetize their purchases and who's left carrying the bags?
I can say it's going to be an interesting discussion with my grandmother "nan I bought a virtual painting for $2m to hang on a virtual wall inside my virtual mansion I paid another $5m for. Put your headset on and I'll teleport you over. OH hang on, I've been hacked or maybe the server just needs resetting" here response - "WTF you been talking about for the last 10 minutes?"
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So I guess to wrap it up - it's now going to be a race to create a viable business model to package up the hype.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin Roadmap - Elliott Monthly Main page drawing not to scale.
A simplified view of current Monthly/Weekly Elliott moves.
I have tried to keep it as clean and easy to see as possible. Forecasted figures here are purely based off the Advanced Get software. As time gets closer to these levels, I will look at forecasting via order blocks & extensions of smaller Elliott wave moves.
Wave 5 Daily
Which is also a 3 Weekly level
Expectations of a 4 move - as per the previous post
Depending on the depth of the 4th wave
Will determine the extension up
Levels of interest
This leads to the extension levels here
A deeper corrective will lead to a weekly 5 at closer to $97k another dip for monthly 4. Followed up with a monthly 5 extension around $133,000 level.
Have a good weekend everyone!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
GBPJPY - Live Weekly Elliott plotsAs per plotting of the weekly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas with daily plots.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
