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Mayfairmoney

GBPUSD - live monthly Elliott PlotAs per plotting of the monthly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas with weekly & daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
EURUSD - Live Weekly Elliott plotAs per plotting of the Weekly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas & with daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
USDJPY - Live Weekly Elliott plotAs per plotting of the Weekly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas & add daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
USDCAD - Live monthly Elliott plotsAs per plotting of the monthly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas with weekly & daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
NZDUSD - Live weekly Elliott plotsAs per plotting of the Weekly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas with daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
USDCHF - Monthly Elliott LiveAs per plotting of the monthly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas with weekly & daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Plan B - Well Plan A. Linear thinking.Let's start with inflation; I recently wrote an article on Inflation - here's a little extra info to follow on from that. This seems insane!!! And it is!!! Stimulus - hype, FOMO, institutional adoption and so on. What does this mean in terms of the charts? Well some good news and some bad news - first of all, many people have now hears about Stock - to - flow made popular by a guy called plan B. Truth is, this technique has been around for a while and has been used in other instruments such as GOLD for quite some time. S2F A stock-to-flow ratio means the currently available stock circulating in the market relative to the newly flowing stock being added to circulation each year. Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future. So although it's great "in theory" it relies on the parabolic growth - Pi top or whatever other linear logic you want to to continue. (yes insert here intentional). However, whilst stimulus checks are being printed like there is no tomorrow, as price rises for Bitcoin you have to shift focus and think of the market like a stock. When Apple or Microsoft, Google, Tesla where at a market cap of $100m to get to 200m was pretty simple. Each time it doubled, the longer it took to the next phase. Now for Amazon to double from over $1 Trillion market cap to $2 Trillion Dollars; some pretty extraordinary events need to occur. So whilst it is not impossible - you will sometimes need major corrections in the moves up, this is actually healthy for the market. Or like any model, too much of a good thing is actually detrimental to the whole thing. The Halving To understand why Bitcoin can work in the shorter term along this scale it has everything to do with the verifiable finite limit to its quantity it is important to understand the mechanism built into its code, this is known as the Halving. For every 210,000 blocks that are mined, or about every four years as we currently stand, the reward given to miners for processing Bitcoin transactions is reduced in half. This means that Bitcoin is a synthetic form of inflation because a reward of Bitcoin given to a miner adds new Bitcoin into circulation. Clever, hey. The rate of this inflation is cut in half every four years and this will continue until all 21 million Bitcoin is released to the market. Currently, there are 18.5 million Bitcoins in circulation, or about 88.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. With gold, there is a somewhat steady rate of new gold mined from the earth each year, which keeps its rate of inflation relatively consistent. Now for a S2F model, you can quantify a demand which is what the model is built upon. But with things like alts in the crypto sphere - the problem will become the flow of money. I talked about this in another recent article. With Bitcoin, each halving increases the assets stock-to-flow ratio. A stock-to-flow ratio means the currently available stock circulating in the market relative to the newly flowing stock being added to circulation each year. So if demand drops for any number of reasons; from bankers adding fees - limiting purchase power. governments around the world tightening up or restricting flow, through to taxation events or heightened regulation. (we CANNOT, ignore these factors). Since Bitcoin’s inception, its price has followed extremely close to its growing stock-to-flow ratio. Each halving Bitcoin has experienced a massive bull market that has absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But as Mark Cuban said "everyone is a genius in a bull market". Bitcoin’s price increase can also be attributed to its stock-to-flow ratio and deflation. Should Bitcoin continue on this trajectory as it has in the past, investors are looking at significant upside in both the near and long-term future. Theoretically, this price could rise to at least $100,000 sometime in 2021 based on the stock-to-flow model shown above. However, you have to watch for the pitfall of a large Elliott monthly move back down from 3-4 on a larger scale than the drop from the previous ATH. Some investment firms have made Bitcoin price predictions based on these fundamental analysis and scarcity models. In a leaked CitiFX Technicals analysis Tom Fitzpatrick, the managing director at US Citibank, called for a $318,000 Bitcoin sometime in 2021. Think back of the Amazon stock doubling model - I can't see us going from 61k current level to 318k within the next 50 days. Live on Bloomberg, the Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Global called for a $400,000 Bitcoin based on their “fundamental work.” Like I said, it's not going to be easy. Anyways - enjoy the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
Euro Situation I feel that the 4 in Elliott terms is pretty much there - this goes all the way back to my related idea in April this year. We can now see the ABC in this move which is part of the higher TF count. It could even be complete here. Now what we are waiting for is the change of character before jumping the gun. DXY is still playing respectfully - So now it's just a little confirmation and we can expect to see divergence in momentum to price action. Nearly there as they say. Would not be surprised to get a dip to the 123.6% level but less likely to give a full 1.618 here. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Currency, cycles and money flowCurrency, cycles and money flow Currency is a system for flowing of money – According to the Oxford English dictionary, it is paper and coins in circulation and whilst all currency is money not all money is currency. Actually, derived from the old French language “Corant” meaning running, eager, swift, lively. And this is from the Latin “currere” to run or move quickly. So, by sheer definition Bitcoin and Crypto is exactly that. However, as majority of the HODLer mentality in the market – the desire and the WANT is not enough for the price to attack 100k, 200k or a million a bitcoin without understanding the economics even in its simple form. Money circulation is what makes the world go around – an economy can only flourish if the money flow is constant. This is also true for the crypto market. And this is where the cycles come into the formula. You see, money is different than gold which is different to majority of other commodities. Going back hundreds of years we had barter systems where items where simply swapped for other items. But as civilisations seemingly advanced, we needed a store of value that would not rot, whither or die and this is why Gold was “a safe” value in exchange for items people would barter for. Skip forward a few hundred years -- we have seen corruption and greed de-value gold, not in its physical form but in its inherent principles. You only need to rummage through Pandora papers or the Panama to get a feeling of money flow. The issue here is whilst majority of us here with access to the internet and a roof over your head would be regarded as first world poor. The majority of the less fortunate would fall into the category of third world poor. (in comparison to the levels of wealth, leaked in the papers above). The influential and ultra-high net worth’s can sit out a recession and buy the dip. But for the first world poor they are often the guys selling at the discount and often buying at a premium. It is all a flow of money, and this creates the money flow cycle. Such cycles have been dissected by the likes of Elliott, who introduced the Elliott wave theory. See the link for info on this topic. So why does this matter? Why will this be no different – although majority of the linear thinking believe in their heart of hearts that “it’s different this time” The reason – is that linear thinkers want the buy and hold strategy to turn a small amount of capital into millions or billions. The idea is no different than placing gold coins and piles of cash under your bed. Without money flowing in and out of the system – there needs to be a constant flow of new buyers and someone willing to sell to these buyers. Velocity of money is key! For this we need industry adoption, and the best way to drive that is to reduce fees and make the technologies more available. So whilst ‘Diamond hand’ mentality seems logical, it’s also a speed bump in the way to true trajectory in the under pinning value. In the recent rally we saw very little volume come into the move up, the price was above 50k before seeing any kind of regular volume (not high volume). We broke to a new ATH and yet failed to stay there for more than a day. This is still concerning for the larger picture – when highs are broken, you should expect momentum and a follow through. The more under the mattress – the more the velocity we achieve. Now here’s where it still feels a little premature to celebrate moon calls to a $1m a coin level. Take a look at the COT leveraged funds information; These guys are not getting REKT – these guys are selling low volume to the retail crowd. I said about the cycles; I have covered this in several posts – here again is the roadmap I painted in March this year. And so far, we have not really deviated from the trajectory. Here is the post And here’s the current situation; Similarly, for the “they blew up the rocket call” So, I cannot ignore the cycles, the lack of velocity and of course the money flow itself. Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes popularised the shift of paradox – which stated individuals tried to save more during a recession which leads to a fall in aggregate demand, in turn effecting the economic growth. For an economy to grow it needs to flow. This flow is what cause the cycles. I recently read the book “the chimp paradox” how it simplified human logic into 3 categories – we are chimps, human or a computer. When fear and greed take over, we often use our chimp brain to assess the situation and all rational goes out the window. We only agree with our own beliefs and dismiss all other points of view, regardless of the logic and empathy behind it. When money stands still, it is no longer money. This is why saving, storing hoarding will never make the economy wealthy. The services and goods purchased will still need to be purchased and new users to the system need to first adopt the system – these becoming the new bag holders for the generation before them. Which takes me onto the next point; a new flow of money. With a new flow of money “where is this generated”? You take the new ETF for example, this allows pension funds to invest into crypto (this is where most linear thinkers, believe it’s all rosy) they will use their chimp brain logic to only see the positive. However, as a fund manager myself I am happy to take 2% fees for the money I manage and then add a success fee on top of that usually around 15-22% The truth is when fund managers get enough money under management – the 2% fee keeps them in luxury yachts and private jet charters. The investors can make a small – usually a few points above base and the fund managers move onto the next new shinny thing for more management fees. Moral of the story – fund managers get rich first and clients are often secondary. If no service or value can be given, money stands still. It is here we move into the arguments for Socialism, capitalism and Communism. Where do you think the governments will take crypto? Do you think there is not much that governments can do? What’s your opinion on regulation? How does crypto get to $1m a coin, I mean what’s the supporting logic for such a move. Who are the new bag holders? All comments welcome. Be interesting to see what people think of the flow to hodl thinking. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
Genuine Question - BTC vs InflationRight, @TradingView community; I want to test a social experiment! I am asking the question as really curious to the opinions; good or bad, bearish or bullish. Believer or not. So I have read a lot about the monitory polices and inflation. A lot I have read talks about Bitcoin and inflation - But I want opinions on why It will, can or maybe won't beat inflation. Share your opinions, suggestion. Clean, good and interesting conversation and comments welcome. Explain, validate and back up comments. Lets see who got what?! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
You won't like this one BITCOINFor the die hard crypto fanatics; you won't like this idea one bit. This is coming from someone who was Bullish from 2011, so don't shoot it down without giving it a read either. You might have seen the film: Wall street, money never sleeps? Well, in this film Gekko shows a chart on the wall of his apartment; This chart shows the Tulip Mania curve, it was insane - below, I have taken the story from Investopedia (word for word) and below each section I will edit it ever so slightly... First - here's a little background. What Was the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble? The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble, also known as 'tulipmania' was one of the most famous market bubbles and crashes of all time. It occurred in Holland during the early to mid-1600s when speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes. At the height of the market, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary. Today, the tulipmania serves as a parable for the pitfalls that excessive greed and speculation can lead to. Here's the chart up close; ================================================================================================================================================= History of the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market’s Bubble Tulips first appeared in Europe in the 16th century, arriving via the spice trading routes that lent a sense of exoticism to these imported flowers that looked like no other flower native to the continent. It is no surprise then that tulips became a luxury item destined for the gardens of the affluent: according to The Library of Economics and Liberty, "it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of tulips." -------------------------------- The first ₿itcoin appeared on the internet circa 2009; becoming a luxury item to own, a symbol of hope and freedom. it seem to mirror the quote exactly "a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a ₿itcoin wallet". ======================================================================== Following the affluent, the merchant middle classes of Dutch society (which did not exist in such developed form elsewhere in Europe at the time) sought to emulate their wealthier neighbors and, too, demanded tulips. Initially, it was a status item that was purchased for the very reason that it was expensive. -------------------------------- The middle class want affluence and wealth and see Crypto as a way to make money the easy way - thus driving up price, of such a status item. ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Cycles The market moves in cycles which can be broken down into waves, this can then be forecasted using tools such as Fibonacci to predict price in the future. In Elliott wave principle; You have cycles that fit into time. While exact time spans may vary, the customary order of degrees is reflected in the following sequence: Grand supercycle: multi-century Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years) Cycle: one year to several years, or even several decades under an Elliott Extension Primary: a few months to two years Intermediate: weeks to months Minor: weeks Minute: days Minuette: hours Subminuette: minutes So we would have to count the current move as a Cycle on the current count and a primary cycle inside of that (Monthly & weekly in essence) as in theory we are still inside a 1 move of anything larger. This is the current (perceived count); ========================================================================================================================================= Back to the Tulips According to Smithsonian Magazine, the Dutch learned that tulips could grow from seeds or buds that grew on the mother bulb. A bulb that grew from seed would take seven to 12 years before flowering, but a bulb itself could flower the very next year. So-called "broken bulbs" were a type of tulip with a striped, multicolored pattern rather than a single solid color that evolved from a mosaic virus strain. This variation was a catalyst causing a growing demand for rare, “broken bulb” tulips which is what ultimately led to the high market price. ------------------------------------ According to some technical guys, ₿itcoin can be mined and with enough equipment 1 full coin can flower over a year - due to the halving, which causes an increase in demand. It is driven to high market prices. ========================================================================================================================================= In 1634, tulipmania swept through Holland. The Library of Economics and Liberty writes, "The rage among the Dutch to possess was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade. ------------------------------------ In 2021 ₿itcoin swept the world reaching as far as El Salvador. The rage amongst the Tweeter crowd was so great that, every man and his dog neglected common sense and even with stimulus money being used to embark on the ₿itcoin ladder. ========================================================================================================================================== At this point; you probably hate this! I understand, majority of people only want opinions that mirror their own beliefs - trust me, I'm Bullish overall, I want a buy n hold strategy, but I cannot ignore factors out of my control. Regulation, Government stupidity and the world melting. ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Some simple logic. Back in March I posted simple roadmap; Inside the post (click the image above) you will see exact co-ordinates for the move and the current situation. See below; +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ So where next and why? If we are seeing a monthly 3 being formed (cycle phase) then we will go into another decline. Collecting new found liquidity at the high. And this making larger cycle 1 when it hits the 5th of this current cycle. ==================================================================================================================================== Some more on Tulips A single bulb could be worth as much as 4,000 or even 5,500 florins—since the 1630s florins were gold coins of uncertain weight and quality it is hard to make an accurate estimation of today's value in dollars, but Mackay does give us some points of reference: among other things, 4 tuns of beer cost 32 florins. That's around 1,008 gallons of beer, or 65 kegs of beer. A keg of Coors Light costs around $90, and so 4 tuns of beer ≈ $4,850 and 1 florin ≈ $150.4 That means that the best of tulips cost upwards of $750,000 in today's money (but with many bulbs trading in the $50,000 - $150,000 range). By 1636, the demand for the tulip trade was so large that regular marts for their sale were established on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam, in Rotterdam, Haarlem, and other towns. ------------------------------------------------------------ A single ₿itcoin could be worth as much as $67,000 which is hard to make an accurate estimation as it could be as little as $8,200 if you buy on Binance (and you have fast reflexes) Depending on where you drink beer, depends on how you can compare this. In Norway you can pay upward of $9, whereas In Antananarivo you can buy a beer for 6 cent. ==================================================================================================================================== It was at that time that professional traders ("stock jobbers") got in on the action, and everybody appeared to be making money simply by possessing some of these rare bulbs. Indeed, it seemed at the time that the price could only go up; that "the passion for tulips would last forever." People began buying tulips with leverage, using margined derivatives contracts to buy more than they could afford. But as quickly as it began, confidence was dashed. By the end of the year 1637, prices began to fall and never looked back. ----------------------------------------- At the time ETF's become available, it seems like the price can only go up. This Bull run will last forever, people start using leverage to buy ₿itcoin. Then - maybe a correction sets in. ==================================================================================================================================== Never happen I hear you say; I often get asked about Plan B and the model - which of course makes some sense. But people are only reading the words and not seeing the chart; Firstly, what happens when you see yellow dots? we go orange, yellow - boom. Ok and then secondary to that; look at the line straight across until mid 2024 > ==================================================================================================================================== Play this move out - another I posted in March this year, the logic was there for what I would regard as a weekly 3-4 move up for 5 giving a monthly 3. As per the Elliott post above in the roadmap. Here's the outcome; ====================================================================================================================================== Tulip conclusions; A large part of this rapid decline was driven by the fact that people had purchased bulbs on credit, hoping to repay their loans when they sold their bulbs for a profit. But once prices started their decline, holders were forced to liquidate—to sell their bulbs at any price and to declare bankruptcy in the process. Smithsonian Magazine indeed notes that "hundreds who, a few months previously had begun to doubt that there was such a thing as poverty in the land suddenly found themselves the possessors of a few bulbs, which nobody would buy," even at prices one-fourth of what they paid. By 1638, tulip bulb prices had returned to from whence they came. --------------------------------- A large part of what will be seen as a shock horror, will be people thinking they have diamond hands until the wife finds out they have over leveraged a position that might not come back for (2 years) - unable to pay back loans on money borrowed to buy crypto. No poverty in the world, is of course the dream. ====================================================================================================================================== The Bubble Bursts By the end of 1637, the bubble had burst. Buyers announced they could not pay the high price previously agreed upon for bulbs and the market fell apart. While it was not a devastating occurrence for the nation's economy, it did undermine social expectations. The event destroyed relationships built on trust and people's willingness and ability to pay. ------------------------------- Prior to 2024; people announced they could not afford to hold such positions and the game mostly passed to the wealthy who could buy when the blood is running in the streets. This destroying the trust and belief, re-affirming the "rich get richer and the poor, get REKT" ===================================================================================================================================== Bullish or Bearish - I hope you enjoyed it. I've been lucky, planted my bulbs and waiting for the to flower. If the price comes back right I'll add to the position. Just be careful, use proper risk management and don't just buy the hype. Do some research for your own entries. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
139
Bitcoin, Elliott & WyckoffThis is not Bullish or Bearish - make of it what you want. Just putting some info out there that I find interesting. Just a thought; weekly 3, 4 and 5. Makes for a monthly 3... So what if? Volume supports such a move. Giving a nice little schematic structure; With a weekly wave count; And that makes the monthly look like a 3 is not fully formed; If Weis is correct - then low volume shows an A & B Meaning it needs a C Explained this type of setup back in May; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
32
Elliott move on AussieHere's an update going back from the move in my profile back in April. In simple form here's the higher Timeframe view; Then the 5 down giving a corrective move and fib levels back to the 1.618 New start on the smaller wave count; Starting with the count - not a fan of the 0-1 move here; Meaning it could still be in corrective mode if we near the low again. Extension sweet spot around 0.77720 level. Pullback 4 would be worked out later (but forecast wise) I would guess here. Thus giving a pattern up looking like this making it's 3rd wave completion. Which means we are likely about to start the 4th wave of the inner move up. Giving us a downside target here in this region. Advanced Get showing a weekly 4 up here and we are inside the 3rd wave up (agreeing with the concept) ============================================================================================= Which means my overall bias is long, but in the short term taking a short down an ABC on the smaller TF's and then long for the long run at the retracement low. ALL RELATED IDEAS ARE EDUCATIONAL HERE Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Bulls, whales, Lambo's and the moonHere are some of the key facts for crypto to obtain it's moon landing. Here's the first sign of bullish momentum, we have failed to break below the strong trendline. Using the advanced Pi top calculator - with Log scale; we can see that the next logical target should be around here. However, with that in mind we should also factor in the logic - we are also now back trading above the 20 week Moving average. On a logscale chart the logarithmic growth curve is just exceptional; suggesting that a break of 65k would clear the path to a 260k level at least. In addition to this now we are on the logscale - we could also see a lunar cycle analysis supporting the above claims and converting the distance from earth to the moon of 384,400 KM to Dollars ($) it might be Aussie dollars so be careful. We could see a moon landing at 384k in the near term. It would make us all happy if we could all own Lambo's this side of Christmas. After all, no Tier 1 country would want to see El Salvador go into recession; They will be doing their upmost to support the country on a fully international stance, providing support for the purchase of governmental mansions in the UK. In the latest move, another Billionaire soon to be the worlds only Trillionaire - is supporting the growth of BTC, All he needs is for Tesla to jump back on-board, once El Salvador can provide sufficient evidence of the volcanic mining operation and deem in globally scalable and safe to do so. The news in China was clearly FUD; This was clear to see as the world bank would like to see a unified crypto front. And finally - as a one world government backed by Bitcoin, all of the world governments with the exception of China will be endorsing a cashless society powered by health passes and traceable transactions. Disclaimer This is not financial advice - just highlighting some of the news, social comments and anything that justifies a straight run up for crypto. Joking throughout - you have to deploy some logic, where logic is needed. Enjoy the weekend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
Magic view of the chartsIf you spend 10 seconds really staring at the chart you will see the 3D pop out. I wanted to use this chart to show that things are not always as they seem. When working on Euro, Gold, Oil, SPX or even BITCOIN there needs to be an appreciation of the dollar, regardless of your sentiment, it's the sentiment of the market as a collective. Many new traders go into crypto thinking the market only goes up. No surprise, they get burnt and keep trying - with little success. When trading, you need to assess the larger scale view, I don't just mean timeframes - I am talking about the economics, the logic and reasoning behind the "why". Back in August I highlighted the severity of what we have seen in terms of the last 18 months, although people seem to "assume", it's more to do with what it actually means??? This has created more volatility in the market overall - seen Oil go to negative numbers for the first time in history, we truly are in a whole new game. So let's breakdown Euro; By starting with DXY. The dollar has hit a key level of resistance on a larger scale move down - this can be highlighted here as the zone itself; Logic for the moves up, show that there is very little impulsiveness - highlighted here by the red rectangles; We are seeing counter symmetry as a whole - showing the chart is willing to comply; How does this fair for the Euro? Well, most retail news outlets are currently suggesting a stock market collapse is imminent and that would imply DXY to go on a major rally, all tradable instruments should therefor fall against the dollar. But what if there was one more move to the downside? This would mean the analysts at the retail outlets are wrong, it would mean the rich have another shot at getting richer and the poor will again put it down to bad timing. I spent a bit of time drawing some cartoon lessons and thought a 3D magic eye type depth of market might at least get a few smiles. You need to stare at the chart and let your eyes go through the screen and you will see the depth on the @TradingView chart When you run extension levels we can spot the effect of the double top - but have to remember who wins in these scenario's 9 times out of 10?? I have written articles on Composite man and how the strong operators profit from the weak. There's a target level for a large scale reversal - I feel this is the last move before news turns 100% negative, stock market apocalypse and the reality is it's another opportunity for the wealthy to play the last leg of Elliott down - just as the retail start to settle; rugs will be pulled. I hope you enjoyed the drawings & of course the article. Enjoy the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
BTC story so far...Go back to the beginning of Bitcoin and you will see the early adopters and the tech wizz kids where the only real active users. Think of a million dollar Pizza. These guys knew they where on to something, but maybe had not realised exactly what - I know this to be the case for me personally buying in around 2011! Just thought I would take a punt. Then comes along something new and shinny - more innovation inside innovation = just Brilliant. But to really get this going, where are the banks and the investors? They later changed the name to Ethereum... Ah ha; Once some of the institutional money came in, many new traders assumed this was only a one way ticket! Thus, causing many to jump on the wagon. Until the lovely bank manager - let's call him Composite man, decided he wanted to take some profits from this market. You can see this as clear as day here; Which just happened to line up with a wave 3 in Elliott lingo; And this is why I called the warning shot in March. You will not believe how respectful Bitcoin is becoming; Interesting times and next roadmap to be plotted soon! I'll leave you with a Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
When Moon Did you know, the Banksy art work with the girl with the balloon is a symbol of hope. It also self destructed at auction. On the plus side, we can hope for the moon. Or will it fizzle, the more and more news and articles I am reading, the more I feel the original levels still stand true back from March this year. Go and see the roadmap - here's the update, it doesn't feel 4-5 impulsive yet. Check March posts in my profile & the related idea's roadmap below; Bitcoin has also been very respectful of Gann recently. Tagged the P&F chart projection and failed; So it's all a matter of perspective; If you ever need a little cryptotherapy just reach out. Have a great weekend all Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
22
Trading View - all depends on what you want to seeTrading is all about winners and losers. A Trading View (thanks @TradingView) is all about how you see the charts, time frames and risk. When I called the move down back in March, it was not that I was Bearish, wasn't stirring FUD - it was on the back of being Bullish from 2011. As a professional investor, you need to take the good with the bad, the highs and the lows and of course profit when the market moves up and down. Many newer traders see BTC as a battle between the Government and the people, they see the regulators vs the crowd. The Bears and the Bulls! This is Jedi master vs the dark master. Truth be told, if you learn to appreciate the powers at work - you can indeed profit from both sides. I often read the chat in TradingView as find it funny how the bias is only ever Bullish, people have one view (9 times out of 10) and seem fearful of the bigger picture being a little more bearish. The charts have been very respectful the last 18 months, what seems crazy, wild moves on the smaller time frames are actually only playing to key levels on the larger times. ** If in doubt - zoom out ** NO STRESS Look back a few months and see the posts from March; you will see it made a whole lot of sense from the Elliott roadmap perspective; Click the link The before: and after; Same as the rocket call; Press play on the idea. This was all based on the distribution of a large scale Wyckoff Schematic; Which played out as a textbook example. So when you look at the charts, just remember Bullish doesn't always make you a Jedi, bearish isn't always behind a Vader mask. Learn to use the force and it becomes a lot more enjoyable! Have a great weekend - and more educational content in the related ideas section below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
Do you know about Dark pools?Dark pools of liquidity are private stock exchanges designed for trading large blocks of securities away from the public eye. They are called "dark" because of their complete lack of transparency, which benefits the big players but may leave the retail investor at a disadvantage. It all started with a need for big institutions to get their trades executed with as little market impact as possible quickly turned into a great money-spinner for banks and brokers. If they could match client orders in their own dark pools, they wouldn’t have to pay the stock exchange’s fees and perhaps they could themselves do a bit of buying and selling in their own pools and profit even more. With this realization, banks and brokers began to promote and encourage the use of their own dark pools to a wider clientele, including retail investors. The spread of dark pools has made them an integral part of the current market structure, and there is now no escape from dark pools. As Dark pools grew, in part due to the growth of high-frequency trading (HFT). Institutions now have an even stronger need to avoid what they felt was the predatory trading of high-frequency traders as the HFT crowd tried to sniff out large orders in the displayed markets. This resulted in more and more institutions traded in the dark. It brought about a problem for the dark pools, though. Who would be trading with the big institutions? To satisfy the demand for more liquidity, some dark pools began letting high-frequency traders into their pools so that more trades could be matched. How does this work inside crypto? Decentralized dark pools are used to shield large trades from causing price slippage in mainstream markets. Decentralized dark pools break down a cryptocurrency order into multiple fragments and match them back again using zero-knowledge proofs. See Investopedia for the full article on decentralized dark pools: www.investopedia.com As the cryptocurrency ecosystem is still evolving and the dearth of large institutional investors and liquidity in the space means that decentralized dark pool trades have a fairly limited impact on prices and trading in mainstream crypto markets. But with various methods of operating, things are not always what they seem. UK exchange Kraken was the first to market in 2016 with an Ethereum dark pool. CEO Jesse Powell noted: “Dark Pool trading allows for orders to be placed out of sight so that traders can make large buy or sell orders (minimum of 50 bitcoin or 2,500 ether) without revealing their sentiment to other traders. Advantages include reduced market impact and better price for large blocks.” Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
86
Are NFT's really the new trading instrument?What is your opinion on NFT's? Do you see them as a new trading instrument? or is it just another hyped 'BUZZWORD'??? Being a long time investor & trader, I have witnessed over the years - things that come and go, in the venture capital world we call this Buzzword Bingo. You get hype curves in sectors that may or may not take off. Always chasing the next shinny thing. Even when talking crypto, it used to be fintech - then came the spin out. As crypto evolves and searches for it's 'read adoption' phase we are very likely to see sideline gigs looking for a problem to the solution. Notice I said problem to the solution and not a solution to the problem? By this I mean, the issue is just like the reasons crypto will struggle to gain full dominance over FIAT currency for a while, is that whilst the tech foundation is solid, the lack of regulation, transparency and what would be deemed as negative points, are really the only thing holding it back. People see the things they want to see, and not what is needed - El Salvador, the prime example. Instead of being a steady growth curve, it was used as a tool to profit from the very type of thing, that is needed for it to grow up properly. Any country looking on at the drop as the sign-off happened, would now be questioning "is this really for us"? Exchanges need to stop trading against their clients, fees need to come down - and as much as I don't like it, regulation needs to be solid. Is thee things happen, I think it will be a wild-fire type adoption - globally. OK so back to NFT's - The pro's = looking after the artist, residual royalties & of course a new type of toy to play with. The negatives - Expensive gas fee's (will detour artists in the long run) from uploading content, the very people it's targeting. Explosive hype - why is this a bad thing? Well go back to my point about El Salvador, there is now either too much in the space (Large supply) with really, not much demand; apart from a select few. My in point; I draw a lot of my tradingview educational posts by using the polyline tool and brush. I recently added the bored ape I went on to finish it. With a blue hat and then with a pink one How about a red one? Even green with the addition of a funky eye The point I am making, is that due to how simple this is to edit - surely it only de-values a proposition? I would love to hear from the community, what your sentiment is - why? Do you like the idea or you think it will be a passing phase? By the way, I liked the blue one with no candles behind him. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
26
BITCOIN adoption What is needed for the crypto industry to thrive? I have been in technology a long time & a trader even longer. I started trading at 15 (nearly 22 years ago now) and become a VC investor in 2014. Bought my first BTC in 2011. And manage funds in and around financial technologies (Fintech). The reason I share this with you, is that I see from experience in both the investing and technology space, what I feel we need to obtain global adoption, acceptance and overall growth. Where it started? Go back to the inception of Bitcoin, the idea was simply to make a better P-2-P (Peer to Peer) transaction system, in essence taking out the middle man, giving the end user more freedom and ideally reducing costs. Why is this important? Whilst the control is a big element and a benefit for crypto – having private keys and personal wallets, the trust and fear also needs to be considered. Back in the early days, most investors saw the technology as risky and the threat of hacks a huge turn-off to the digital currencies. Where banks had the upper hand was in the stability, assurances, regulation and all of this give comfort to the investor. (my money is safe). The Government’s perspective… Well in simple terms, the government want control (without going down a rabbit hole) they are controlled by the bankers on Wall-Street, and the system is designed to keep the middle class – well, in the middle. Regulation as a blanket has yet to have been done. But there have been some major strides towards things like KYC (Know your customer) and AML (Anti Money Laundering) put into companies, exchanges and the likes that were not mandatory early on. Regulation. Whilst some see this as negative, it’s actually counter intuitive to see it as a downside. Yes, it fits under the umbrella of Government control (Big brother watching), but in simple economics, the same regulation will attract more and more institutional money, drive more and more industry adoption across all sectors. A lot of the privacy factors are all ready gone, when looking back at what it was back then, compared to where we are today. Most of the major exchanges now have their own governance imposed on them by the local authorities. Now in this side of things, we also need to consider the cause and effect this will have on the charts. In a tale as old as the market itself we have market cycles which consist of Peaks and troughs. Which are patterns that are developed by the price action and is experienced by all securities. Including Crypto. Games being played The major issue without regulation is that companies & individuals are free to play games, we have recently seen exchanges being investigated for trading against their clients. We have had data being sold externally to trade against custodians, we have also seen acquisitions of fraud and tax sleuths. To name just a few issues. www.bloomberg.com A personal experience and gripe of mine was in 2018 I signed up for a pre-paid debit card, to test this I put $100 into it, but in doing this I needed to first buy the BTC, send that from wallet A to wallet B and then the money sat on an application. After fee’s the money left was around $56 so from the hole in the wall I could only retrieve $50. This is not healthy for mass adoption & without regulation it is unlikely to change fast enough to really challenge the payment system of the world. Global adoption So, although the ‘Masses’ in this case ‘Retail’ do not like the global situation of the government controls and restrictions, the industry is fuelled by fear of missing out and greed of mass wealth. This includes the likes of the exchanges and servers to interact within the crypto eco-system. By this I mean the whole purpose of crypto is empower the people and reduce fees. However, the issue is less regulation and more fees, scams and general lack of CONFIDENCE in the crypto sphere. If $100 is put into a HSBC, Citi bank or Standard Chartered check-in account. You would expect to take $100 from the hold in the wall. Industry growth I expect growth in the industry as a whole, but as an experienced trader I have to be realistic on the timeframes and the situation. When assessing the chart, you can go back to March this year when I was calling the top of the latest cycle. and the outcome; If we are only now seeing the weekly 3-4 move and indeed on the way 4 to 5 – then we should not be disappointed in a top that only stretches just beyond the current ATH and drops again heavily for its monthly 3 to 4 move. Other areas of concern for vast growth We have seen the rise of NFT’s recently (even launched two of my own) but whilst the logic is sound and ideal for content creators and artists, again the issue is “cost” Gas fee’s can be so expensive, taking the logical benefits for artists away from the spotlight, instead of encouraging them to flourish. When combining all of the above, I feel we might attract some interesting regulation changes at the high of the Elliott moves, this will cause panic and sell off in the retail sector. The industry will likely recover and then we get the MOON-shot people are longing for. When analysing the shorter-term stuff people tend to miss the larger point – instead focusing on EMA, RSI or chart patterns; When in doubt – zoom out. The story is already written in the price action, it will now take the news to catch people up with the actual situation. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
12
Tweeter whoooo ah twitter ah Some brilliant moves today in Bitcoin. Fun and games as to be expected. Microstrategy new purchase and Walmart well accepting or maybe not? Either way it's played the charts both ways. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
Microstrategy BTC buys on one chartMichael Saylor at Microstrategy has just acquired another block of BTC. Here are the previous main buys of the instrument. Correlated on one chart, with the average buy price he quoted in his tweet. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
4