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Mayfairmoney

Bitcoin logic both scenario'sAs you will see going back to March the 18th; BTC has been very respectful It has made a few strange moves lately, but as I say "it is BTC, expect the unexpected" We have also had 18 months of CRAZY Here is the link to the extension details etc. Have a great week all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
Bullish on BitcoinBeen spending more and more time looking at all possible scenario's. Although there is still logic for both Bullish and Bearish, I am a reactive trader - currently waiting for my confirmation on the long term entry. I have shared several video's lately on the two types of scenario's and here's some additional info; Here we have a weekly view (software generated Elliott count. Here's the daily; If the Daily proves correct - this is what the cycle wave should look like; Fibonacci levels kinda make sense; A 38% Pullback would be inline with the previous resistance; Look at this all the way back from the 26th of March (see the date) The image above was from this post: And this is the current view; Same goes for the rocket post (going back to the 18th of March) - what is interesting here, is the key levels are now Support & Resistance. Play this scenario forward; ======================================================================================================================== So what is your take? are we going to the moon or just another high before the bigger drop? Comments below. Have a Great Week!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
3 simple cheat sheetsHere are three very easy to follow cheat sheets; Candles; There are several patterns both bearish and bullish - here is just a "welcome to" for you newer traders. Then we have patterns - as per main image; These are useful to help spot reversals and continuations of trend. Lastly, we have the Divergence. Other educational content recently includes Fibonacci' See related ideas for full post. And how to assess Alt Coins; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
14
Global events - the last 18 Months. I recently posted a timeline of Bitcoin events as well as record several videos on the current Elliott Wave moves around Bitcoin, DXY and a few Forex pairs. Here’s a link to the Bitcoin timeline; Looking back at the last 18 months or so now, I wanted to cover some of the significant events that have taken place, which would have had some (but not as much as you think) of an effect on the Elliott counts as a whole. For those of you not familiar with Elliott, there is a link in the ‘related ideas’ section covering the basics. So, let’s go back in time; Brexit announced back in 2016 – carried through and completed in 2020. Thus, kicking off the year with a fair size event, the global markets not quite sure what the fall out would be, where the damage would come and of course if there where to be profitable positions to obtain. An awful lot of hesitation & fear seen in the market. Jump forward to the next big event; although COVID-19 was technically pre 2020, the real effects did not start to emerge until early 2020 when the world went into LOCKDOWNS, crazy mayhem soon followed and has not really disappeared since. After the world starts to go mad! A few other things happen during this period! - Oil goes negative for the first time in HISTORY - Gold hits $2,000 - S&P creates an all-time high If this was not enough to cause global confusion, we also had an interesting period in the United States. All though there are plenty of other events that have shaped this last 18 months or so, you can clearly see with so much – the charts will be a little more sporadic, a little harder to read. So, although methods such as Elliott and Wyckoff are still very powerful. Even Wyckoff Schematics got a good run in the social media platforms! (Probably kicked that off in March) 😉 Interesting times ahead - @TradingView community, take care of yourself and keep in mind! It’s been a crazy 18-months, 2 years! **(This is not a trade idea, even a bias - it's just highlighting how insane these last 18-months have been) For education on Wyckoff and Elliott - see my bio below; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
Historic event timeline (single page) Mostly I tried to get the major events on one page; decided to get 2021 on it's own - rest of the info going back to 2013 Zoomed in 2021 chart; Just interesting to see this on a timeline and thought it was worth sharing. See educational content below in the related ideas section. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
What do you think of BITCOIN right now?Be great to get some comments - both bullish and bearish here; What is the current sentiment for you? What is the retail sentiment? too eager, or right time? Here's a few things I am fearful of in terms of the downside potential; This is potentially a monthly ABC move - C not measured, just a question kept open. With this in mind, looking at the potential for the pullback level, swing high to low. This makes a lot of sense for sucker punching retail - on route to 50k Nearing a Gann level weekly resistance. Sloping volume giving divergence to price action. The WEISS Volume not feeling overly Bullish Market Oscillator for the total - less than the bar before; hitting it's quadratics high point With the Total market Cap in over bought territory. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Assume this is a Bullish Move and none of the above is taken into account; we have an extension 2 - 3 move here nearing its 2.618 So what are your thoughts and analysis for either long or short? Let's get some comments! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
31
Welcome to The Pivot Point.So whilst most people just see them as lines on a chart, I don't find many people know how to calculate them or have any real strategy around them. Here's an intro to Pivot Points; Summary Pivot points are used by traders in equity and commodity exchanges. They're calculated based on the high, low, and closing prices of previous trading sessions, and they're used to predict support and resistance levels in the current or upcoming session. These support and resistance levels can be used by traders to determine entry and exit points, both for stop-losses and profit taking. How to Calculate Pivot Points There are several different methods for calculating pivot points, the most common of which is the five-point system. This system uses the previous day's high, low, and close, along with two support levels and two resistance levels (totaling five price points), to derive a pivot point. The equations are as follows, with the added R & S 3! Indicators You may have already seen but @TradingView has a couple of built in indicators for pivots such as this one below; where these levels are automated for you. For stocks, which trade only during specific hours of the day, use the high, low, and close from the day's standard trading hours. In 24-hour markets, such as the forex market in which currency is traded, pivot points are often calculated using New York closing time (4 p.m. EST) on a 24-hour cycle. Since the GMT is also often used in forex trading, some traders opt to use 23:59 GMT for the close of a trading session and 00:00 GMT for the opening of the new session. While it's typical to apply pivot points to the chart using data from the previous day to provide support and resistance levels for the next day, it's also possible to use last week's data and make pivot points for next week. This would serve swing traders and, to a lesser extent, day traders. This info is all on free sites such as investopedia.com & Babypips.com Alternative Methods Another common variation of the five-point system is the inclusion of the opening price in the formula: And a method by Tom DeMark; Pivot points can be used in two ways. The first way is to determine the overall market trend. If the pivot point price is broken in an upward movement, then the market is bullish. If the price drops through the pivot point, then it's is bearish. Some people use pivot points in short term/scalp type strategies - One such method is the rejection; where as another is taking the break of; The Bottom Line Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Pivot points are based on a simple calculation, and while they work for some traders, others may not find them useful. There is no assurance the price will stop at, reverse at, or even reach the levels created on the chart. Other times the price will move back and forth through a level. www.investopedia.com Here's another example of how they are used in one of our custom indicators - to help assess the current trend and various levels. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
₿ITCOIN Licence to Thrill.Trying to spy on some logic for a long. I have recently covered in several streams and video's - why my bias is still down. But want to see some logic from the other side of the table. If we are long here - here's some thoughts; Could this be the 0-1, back to 2 and on it's way up to 3 move? If so what is the "?" phase? Let's go one better and assume a pretty channel break; Where are the fib targets above? we have a 1.618 move up. Zoomed in Here is clearly a 38% Pullback Could it be? Does this work with a breakdown if we apply a retracement? Well yes; So now it's all about logic for a move up and a bigger drop, or are we likely to drop from here? Just me thinking out loud; have to watch the streams & videos for the full breakdown of the logic both ways. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe. 2nd Disclaimer - This is not me long, this is not a long call, this is just breaking down some logic if it is to go long. Trying to assess each situation.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
What you may not realize...Over the last couple of months, I have posted several educational articles. This one is to show how some of the tools widely used in trading can actually fit together. I wrote a post a while ago about Dow Theory and how it fits into most modern technical analysis. Click on each link to get the in depth content from the posts When looking at a trend, cycle or major market move. The best place to start is from the biggest time frame available. This giving an overall bias for the overall trend, some people will refer to this as the monthly, super cycle, major trend. It basically means as large as you want. This can be based on your trading style, no point trying to obtain a bias on a minute chart. For me I like the bias based on monthly Elliott wave moves; Again click the image for the full post, at the bottom of this post in related ideas there is also basic level 2 Elliott. Once you have the bias we can work out exactly where we are, like one of those street maps in a city. We can use Fibonacci levels to drill down into potential areas of interest and targets for both the extensions and retracements. Here is another article posted recently as an intro to Fibonacci; Once you can identify potential areas of interest, you can drill down again into more advanced techniques such as Wyckoff. In Wyckoff terms - I wrote a couple of articles and recorded several streams on the logic for the BTC call at the top in the middle of February, before the "Rocket post in March" all based on the info mentioned above here. In this post, I covered the basics of Wyckoff and it's simple logic Before going into the types of schematics here below; The Wyckoff schematics is a little more advanced than the other techniques here, but when you know where you are in the cycle, they become a lot easier to identify. In the "related ideas" section I covered a chronology of education, covering other topics like buying the dips, MACD, Trendlines and Moving Averages. I hope this post gets you thinking about how it all fits and works together. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Life's not linear at all.Crypto might feel like it's always running away from you. Do you ever feel like Cayote??? "Running is a road to self-awareness and reliance-you can push yourself to extremes and learn the harsh reality of your physical and mental limitations or coast quietly down a solitary path watching the earth spin beneath your feet." - Doris Brown Heritage I have spent some time drawing on the chart! this one was a long one! But as I keep emphasising, the idea of these drawings is to add a little fun to some boring topics. It might feel like every time you enter, the market goes against you. What you have to realise, is that the market makers are busy playing the game. These games are less obvious during a daily, weekly, monthly Elliott 4 move. If in doubt ZOOM out! We have been posting a ton of educational content recently, it's all about the logic of price action. Click the link and have a read through these individual posts. Happy Monday! Have a great week and take it easy! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
A technique from 1202 - Really? images Who was Fibonacci? Fibonacci (1170 – c. 1240–50), also known as Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo of Pisa, or Leonardo Bigollo Pisano was an Italian mathematician from the Republic of Pisa, considered to be "the most talented Western mathematician of the Middle Ages". Fibonacci popularized the Hindu–Arabic numeral system in the Western world primarily through his composition in 1202 of Liber Abaci (Book of Calculation). He also introduced Europe to the sequence of Fibonacci numbers, which he used as an example in Liber Abaci. You may have seen this? This is what’s called the Golden ratio. I am not looking to go into depth on Fibonacci use cases, spirals, fans, arcs, circles, wedges and channels. However, it was important to mention so you can go away and do your own research on Fibonacci beyond this “welcome to” post. Why is this useful for trading? The Fibonacci sequence is quite possibly the most used tool in trading stocks, Forex, Commodities and even crypto. In mathematics, the Fibonacci numbers, commonly denoted Fnuch that each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. However, you are probably more familiar with Fibonacci extension and retracement levels. It’s all based on the same logic. Fibonacci numbers appear unexpectedly often in mathematics, so much so that there is an entire journal dedicated to their study, the Fibonacci Quarterly. Applications of Fibonacci numbers include computer algorithms such as the Fibonacci search technique and the Fibonacci heap data structure, and graphs called Fibonacci cubes used for interconnecting parallel and distributed systems. They also appear in biological settings, such as branching in trees, the arrangement of leaves on a stem, the fruit sprouts of a pineapple, the flowering of an artichoke, an uncurling fern, and the arrangement of a pine cone's bracts. Just look at this image once more! So what? The fact that these numbers appear in nature, it has clearly been adopted in art and architecture – this is due to the human desire for pattern recognition. It’s built into our DNA, the fact that we as a collective want to identify such patterns, will in fact drive charts. I have written articles on Elliott Waves - which again is quite possibly one of the biggest use cases for Fibonacci, definitely an easy way to see the powers at work. Here’s a link to one such article; How to use Them? If you have been trading for some time you are most likely familiar with Fibonacci techniques, if you are new, here is some basic logic to get you started. As mentioned above there are several tools for Fibonacci, as a new trader I would suggest only looking at extensions and retracements to start you off. Retracement These levels often work well as support and resistance, you will find opportunities to enter on pullbacks (retracements) against the overall trend. Common levels here are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% (although it’s not technically a real fib level, another topic for another time) then of course the 61.8% and the 78.6%. How to draw these on the chart – you are looking for 3 points let’s assume A,B & C. You are looking for A to be at the start of your trend. Often this will be a swing low or high. Let’s assume we are looking at an uptrend and we want to see the pullback. A would be placed here as above. The next step is to use the extension tool and click A and drag to point B as below; and the pullback level; Now we have a move A to B we can start to look for areas of interest, in this example we can see the pullback was to the 38.2% level. Some people are critical on the levels, for me I like it to tag the level and if it goes a little deeper then I still like it, if it doesn’t tag the level I would round it down to the lower level. Meaning if it fails at say 37.9% I would like to still think of it as only the 23,6% fib level. But there is no hard and fast rule on this. Now this gives me A and B with a 38% pullback for C. One way to trade using this could be a simple Buy at the break of B with a stop “Below” C Not telling you this is what you should do, it’s just one method some do use. Obviously, you could increase the stop and put it under A instead. Difference between Retracement and Extensions? The data you gather by assessing the pullback becomes valuable when looking for potential targets, so whilst we used 2 touch points (A & B) for getting the retracement level, the most accurate extension forecasting tool would be to use all 3 (A, B and C). Although it can also be done by using only A and B as well, It’s another one of those not so clear rules. Whilst the retracement tool gives us the pullback, the extension will give us some target areas. Let’s start with the simple (not my preferred) method; This is known as the extensions – 2 points (A, B) drag the curser from A to B and click and then back to A and click off. With this method you will notice in your back-testing those areas of interest will often be at the 61.8% of the A to B move. This means if A + B = 100, then the target would be around 161-2. Also, the 100% of the A-B move giving a target example of 200 and lastly the 1.618 level. Giving a target of 261-2 level. Again, no hard fast rule. This is just something seen over and over again. Expansion levels To start with go from A to B with the extension tool and pullback to C and click off. Assume you are using @TradingView Much like the Extension you will notice similar characteristics of the moves up (in this example of the uptrend) Something interesting I mentioned above this is a great tool to use alongside Elliott Waves, here’s an example of how this works and can fit into the charts. In this image above we use the same A point as a starting point, B becomes the 1 and 2 becomes the C. We can then work the Fibonacci extension & expansion levels to determine where 3 is likely to go. And then we can use the retracement for the pullback for (4) as well as new extensions for the projection of the 5th wave. A few months back, I wrote an article here on tradingview on the psychology on the charts, it’s worth highlighting that here. Click the link/image to view the article; Nothing is 100% certain, but using these methods will help give you a better understanding of waves and swings, logic for pullbacks and reason for extension levels. I hope this helps someone out here! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
132
The greatest teacher, failure is.Why I add drawings to my TA - mostly as I have time and enjoy entertaining on serious topics. Brighten up the world of @TradingView for you guys. In the recent months since the Rocket call - (BTC Drop to 30k from 60k+) its been a slow steady burn on the weekly 3-4 move in terms of Elliott Wave. I have spent the time putting together some educational content as well as some of the defined logic for the drop itself, the moves down and of course the current situation. If you haven't been following the post, here are a few to help you along. 1) Elliott Roadmap (click the image for a link to the post) This is how it's playing out; 2) Wyckoff Distribution - during the move down, many people turned to "Wyckoff" as it was widely publicised by the media and the usual crypto GURU. The irony was, back in March they all had it as Re-Accumulation. (Click image for link to post) Taken this further and into stage 2 of the basics; (Click link) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3) I have written on the topic of assessment of alt coins, crypto in general and buying the dips. (click on the links again for posts) - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4) Streams; Myself or @Paul_Varcoe put out daily streams, Paul usually does the 10:30 AM (UK Time) and myself the 3:30 PM (UK Time) Recently we have been talking about the length of time, expectations and logic supporting the moves and dynamics. www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com Paul's stream are done as a viewers request series, so go ask him what you want. If you dedicate the time to read through these articles above and watch the couple of streams posted here. It will all make sense, feel calm like Yoda. Enjoy your trading! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
" Man, I'm Pretty "“Now remember, I do my best work when I’m being worshiped as a god.” — Johnny Bravo. Bitcoin king of crypto - doing it's best work, like the one man army it is! Although it's as clear as day, crypto is here to stay - we have to be willing to see some wood through the trees. Every now and again, we need a pullback. I have written several articles around the "buying the dip" logic for a pullback, why people get into crypto and of course - a ton of educational content here around Elliott and Wyckoff. See related ideas below; “So enough about me, let’s talk more about me.” — Johnny Bravo You have to see the logic here and understand - that the market is taking a well earned rest, it will continue. However, you also need to appreciate the Composite man concept, is going to make life difficult for retail traders. "Wanna see me comb my hair, really fast?” — Johnny Bravo When working with Elliott waves - it's an obvious move here, confirmed with tools such as Weis wave to give clarity of times on such moves. Take a look at this in the image above. It's there and obvious. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When the drop came - people where shocked, it really can't just go up forever and a day. If you go back and analyse the Wyckoff structure - you will notice the Buyers climax linked to the sharp drop off in the Blockfi positions. “Hey, Baby! Anybody ever tell you I have beautiful eyes?” — Johnny Bravo You need to look at the bigger picture, the much bigger picture. To the moon!!! I wasn't actually meaning just the moon calls - I was meaning, the psychology for the drop, the reload and the go again scenario. So although your all here waiting for Lambo's... You will see that composite man want's nothing more than to take your money, he knows how to play the game and is busy playing it. You might feel bored at the moment, jumping on every little move! “I may be late honey, but I’m looking good.” — Johnny Bravo So take a step back, wait for the market to give the confirmation. “This won’t end well.” — Johnny Bravo - not for many retail traders, that is for sure! So have a great weekend! Trade safe!!! “Thank you, thank you very much.” — Johnny Bravo Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
39
Battle of the AgesAs Retail traders continue their moon ticket purchasing & placing orders for Lambo's. The institutional players are fighting their own battle, waging war on retail. Its a story as old as time, trading is a constant fight - one man's loss, is another man's win! I have recently posted some logic as to the current situation, the time stamps, used every tool in the @TradingView arsenal. And some others. If you want to get a feel for where exactly we are on the roadmap you can watch a few of the last streams. I keep them short and on point to make them easier to absorb the information. Here are some posts deploying similar logic, including the update after the spike (click on the images to see inside) My business partner Paul wrote a great article on the target on Saylor's back. Although we might not get down as low, we still have to keep it in mind. In addition to this, the Wyckoff logic that enabled us to call the top - has some interesting levels near by and so far playing by the rules. For more on Wyckoff click this link or see in the related ideas. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simple Higher or Lower lows and highs - show the character of Bitcoin currently. So although our view is Bullish overall - for now I feel we are still in a decent pullback on the weekly timeframe. Time wise - well 4's are often the most drawn out, due to the nature and logic of the profit taking and re-accumulation phase. We cover a load of educational content and aim to simplify the logic - But as clear as day, we can see why we are where we are. Safe trading & Have fun! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
Sleep like a baby...And I don't mean, up every hour crying! The logic is in the price action, many people are already calling for the moon. It won't be that easy, I can assure you! If you have followed along with our streams, you would have seen the Weis wave logic and the count as per the Elliott wave day ranges. Here's the simplified logic showing the range of days. If this isn't enough to give you some comfort, how about this? We have been making lower highs and lows since our ATH... Don't get me wrong, I am not all doom and gloom - and for you perma bulls, I have been Bullish BTC Since 2011. But recognise the market sometimes needs a correction, I have written several posts on buying the dip and even a roadmap to our current location. See date of post. And to update this, see below; ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See the logic from the 18th of March as to why we were in distribution (related ideas) They blew up the rocket. This was the schematic in simple form. With current price action nearing it's low. We also posted several educational pieces on the Wyckoff schematic. Click the image to take you to the post. Above is the local schematic formed and this could easily fit the profile for a nice UTAD type move. ================================================================================= Composite man (Wyckoff related) is having a laugh and will play the games, until he is ready. So whilst this might upset some Bulls, confuse some bears. The logic is there to help. It's been an interesting day today! Trade safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
36
Course I talk to myself because sometimes I need expert adviceIn all seriousness, Retail are starting to feel unsure of the current situation & for a professional trader, this is by design. So nothing unusual. I have posted several articles going back from the Rocket call as to why we needed this correction. Press play on the idea, you will see it hit the key level much faster than expected. But the point is the levels have been respectful and this equals professional money or in Wyckoff-ology it's strong hands playing the game. I had put together a roadmap for the Elliott count on Bitcoin - this goes back to the 26th of March. See the date - you will see the logic combined with the Wyckoff schematic, which many people believed to be Accumulation, they had missed one key candle - thus making all of the difference. How it started vs how's it going... I posted about the education of Wyckoff level one and two basics. And part 2; Also in the related ideas below. ====================================================================================================================================== What you have to realise is that Composite man (smart money, institutional investors, banks) or whatever you want to call it. All know what key levels they see as value areas, many retail traders fool themselves with indicators (often different indicators, saying the same thing) Everyone is a Genius in a Bull market as Cuban said. As bugs would say "My Level Of Sarcasm Depends On Your Level Of Stupidity" But retail are doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting different results. There's a clue in there somewhere... “I know this defies the law of gravity, but I never studied law!” But how about some logic? I recently posted in some of the streams, the Weis count and timeframe - for a summary view, what do you make of this? Now - how about the times? Now given (4) in Elliott terms is often the most drawn out process - why do we think it's going to turn-around and shoot up today in a few days? “Jumpin’ without a parachute? Kinda dangerous, ain’t it?” Stay safe & sensible if your trying to trade these moves currently, simply apply a little logic. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
40
Buy at the tops & sell the bottoms! Richard Ney spoke about think of the market like a warehouse, the owners of the warehouse CM (composite man) needs to fill the building with inventory, they need to sell some as they acquire more - issuing news releases of their grand launch. But their whole objective is to buy at the wholesale rate & sell at retail prices. Think of this in a simple chronology form; Strong hands buy cheap and sell at a higher price – to the retail clients, willing to pay more. This is usually due to the retail buying the tops and selling the bottoms. If you take a look at the CryptoQuant chart - replicated from their site, into @TradingView You will notice the drop off towards the end of Feb. this was in essence the buyers climax. I’ve had several people ask – why would the big boys bail at 40k? Again, you need to think of the wholesale/retail scenario. CM buys low and sells high, retail buy high and sell low. If you apply some Elliott logic here, you will see we were at a weekly 3 & that was finished with a daily 5 – giving the need of a correction (in Warehouse terms) selling inventory, in trading lingo – it’s distribution. Here I posted the map in March; As you can see it played out as expected. Let’s go back to the Wholesale logic by Mr Ney; This is by far the easiest way to think about it. The primary goal of composite man (the market maker) or in the warehouse owner. Is to make money. To do this, they acquire stock or BTC and fill their warehouse(fund). In the accumulation phase, CM (Composite man) needs enough inventory to make it worthwhile, making demand – you will see positive news, attracting the retail to the store. The whole process is about supply and demand. Does he have enough supply for the demand? The warehouse will not be filled with only one truck – it will take several months and multiple deliveries to accumulate enough stock/BTC. Then the emphasis is put on mass marketing! Think a Musk tweet, positive news and so on! Attracting retail buyers – who now have confidence in the product on sale as it’s shot up recently. Supply seemingly limited and demand high! As buyers buy – CM is selling as seen by the Blockfi wallet image above. Price driven up as supply becomes exhausted and demand is peaked! Now what? – well Price is too much for CM to want to buy anything back at an ATH. He wants it back at a new fair value – wholesale price. So, the best thing to do is – cause a little fear and doubt, a political statement or a tweet or two in today’s world. The media is basically yesterday’s news, tomorrow. But so many people buy into it and that allows for the puppeteering. And this is known as the distribution phase. We are now at a 1,3 or 5 Elliott wave. Let’s go with only at 1 in Elliott terms. CM can’t frighten retail too much and needs to keep the dream alive. Or there would be no dumb money buying into the next rally. So, the distribution & re-accumulation phase often blends in the 2nd wave of an Elliott move. If you look inside, you will see the ABC type moves giving hope to retail and gathering a strong position to go again. All CM is doing is filling the shelves in the warehouse. He continues to buy new inventory and sell the old (hedging) And once there’s enough supply to make a new campaign – off he goes, selling to the world. If news is bad at the highs, retail suckers would not buy anymore & CM would be left carrying the weight. Instead, the news is good, knowing a drop is imminent. The same applies at the bottom, if news is good – then retail will be buying in preparation for a move up. CM knows how to balance these moves without showing his hand. It’s knowing that retail fools – will always try to catch the bottom and stay in until the top. And you wonder why it is that retail lose 75% of the time or more! CM simply takes advantage of the retail’s fear and greed. I recently wrote another TradingView article on emotional analysis. This explains a little as to why Elliott, Wyckoff and Dow theory are still used today. The logic from re-accumulation or Elliott 2 – goes on into 3, down to 4 and then up to 5. Before the cycle is completed and a new cycle starts. We cover this in more depth with the education. But I hope you get the general idea here. Enjoy the rest of the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
47
Un-Common Sense...I have recently recorded a video titled “Fear + Greed = Stupidity” I would say that lack of patience is the number one problem of traders who have come to me for mentoring or education over the years doing this. There is a term used in the industry known as the 90-90-90 rule; 90% of traders, lose 90% of their money in 90 days. Just think about that for a second! There are two types of money, 'smart money' and 'dumb money'. You, 'retail' traders are 'dumb money'. The investment banks and institutions consider themselves the 'smart money'. Their job is only to move the dumb money into the pockets of the smart money, and they do this every day, all day long. (making the rich richer & the poor ...............well broke). It amazes me, that it takes several years to go through university for many professions, yet the assumption is that you can work part time as a trader (after the 9-5) and come and dominate in crypto or FX – and we wonder why 90% lose 90% of their money in 90 days… In order to make money in the markets, you need liquidity. The 'dumb money' provides the liquidity that the 'smart money' uses to get in and out of trades. Trading is a zero-sum game, every single penny you make is because some other poor soul lost it. For every buyer there's a seller and vice-versa (in an efficient liquid market). Have a read of this little parable by @Paul_Varcoe Think of the ‘business model’ of the exchanges and brokers; many have built their empires on this one simple rule – they are happy to give leveraged accounts to people as they know it’s only ‘dumb money’ that take them up on the offer, pushing people into the funnel is a repetitive cycle. Many brokers offer commission to introducers for what’s known as “FTD’s” first time deposits. Some offer introducers commission on spreads. They know all too well; the dumb money pouring in is the fuel for the machine. Humans are naturally designed to lose; we have the fear of being hurt and the welcoming of pleasure, this goes on to create more endorphins. So, when we see a red P&L or open position, we naturally want it green so we leave the losses run. On the HOPE of it coming back. But when we are green, we cut the profits for the FEAR of it turning red. Again, step back and have a think about this point. Now combine what I have just said above; Fear + Greed = Stupidity and smart money are here to make you broke, as well as the fact that exchanges have based their business off the 90-90-90 rule. What to do about it? 1. Do you use wide stops? If so, you’re just making the brokers rich and guaranteeing losses on your part. After all, the market always trades towards the stops. How else will it shake out all the weak players before making the real move? Using the right techniques, you can learn to enter and manage your risk a whole lot better. Many “gurus” will be teaching methods that most retail traders fall for, this is another machine for making money off dumb money. I have seen these educators talk about not using stops or trading standard off the shelf tools. You ever hear some guru say "The price is about to break support off the back of a hanging man, RSI is overbought and price broke out of the Bollinger band channel. It has also crossed under the 21-week EMA" (or some other shait like this), just remember that the price doesn't care, it'll go wherever the composite man needs it to go... 2. Statistics show there are certain times to trade various chart formations, stochastic are great in ranging markets and RSI are better suited for trending conditions. All of the dumb money are busy trading RSI in range bound markets as it’s the only tool they know how to use. Knowing when to use tools will go a long way – you get to a point of not really needing them, but until then acquire some more tools for the tool-box. A screwdriver is no good for hammering in a nail. 3. Do you know when to reverse your position? Since the market loves to catch everyone going the wrong way, this is a great and highly profitable tactic, but you have to know how and when to do it. I had a ton of people tell me how wrong I was on the call made in March for BTC – perma bulls, in an exhausted market. Glad to say my 30k call for the drop from 62,500 was on point. Over shot by 2k, but what’s that among friends? (See rocket post, in the related ideas) You have to work the market both ways, or at least learn to sit out during the corrective phases. They do happen from time to time! 4. Making a plan – people are busy trying to catch the bottom, this is reminiscent of that lego batman scene “first time” after several attempts of calling the bottom. They will be right at some point. The number of posts on TradingView calling the BTC spring in the most recent drop – scary. When building a plan, it should be focused on risk management and a systematic approach for both entries and exit. I would much rather catch 60-80% of the swing with high probability, than try to obtain the full A to B move with little possibility. 5. I encourage the traders I mentor to “Trade less. Earn more.” You need to learn that its better to make a bit with 95% certainty than to try to make 100% with only a 10% chance of hitting the home run! And in this way you keep your liquidity costs low and add to your earnings at the end of the year. If you’re looking to trade crypto – take a look at this; On the psychology side; And finally here’s the logic for why the cycles can last a “little longer” – see yesterday’s stream! www.tradingview.com Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
98
Lord of the CoinsThis one is more an ask - what is your take on BTC? Scared of the drop? embracing it? or looking forward to "precious" returning to it's former glory? Comment your thoughts on it below; Where is it going? up down, down a little before up? Let's see what the community sentiment is?! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
43
Apple baked p(high)Apple is a simple one here - it's running out of momentum, the volume is ascending lower as the price moving higher. The new high level here will be a monthly 3 in Elliott terms and therefore we can expect a nice correction. The stochastic agrees - the monthly has a little to go but it's a slow grind up, the weekly stochastic is now in the overbought zone. So not much more to say on this one. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
DMG Blockchain SolutionsTo be honest, I have not traded stocks for a long time. I started my trading journey in stocks and quickly moved into US Penny stocks. It was similar to the crypto landscape we see today. DMG Blockchain Solutions Inc. DMG Blockchain Solutions Inc. operates as a blockchain and cryptocurrency company. It operates through data centre operations, data analytics and forensics, and developing enterprise Blockchains divisions. The company manages, operates, and develops digital solutions to monetize the blockchain ecosystem. It is also involved in developing enterprise blockchains; and providing hosting services for industrial mining clients. The company also provides technical expertise software products, such as blockseer pool, mine manager software, and walletscore, as well as consultation services to accounting firms, law firms, and law enforcement organizations. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Grand Forks, Canada. Sector(s): Technology Industry: Software—Application DMG Blockchain Solutions Announces Strategic Investment in Crypto Custodian Brane Capital - some of the latest news. "DMG’s strategic investment in Brane will accelerate the market traction of both companies and facilitate cooperation on development of advanced blockchain technologies, as well as continued progress toward leadership in environmental sustainability. The relationship between the companies will not affect Brane’s independence as a custodian, which Brane maintains through strict separation from any cryptocurrency trading operations. Brane currently offers a crypto asset self-custody technology solution for IIROC-regulated securities dealers and is working toward becoming Canada’s first qualified custodian for digital assets. Brane’s leadership team includes experienced executives from finance, technology, and government, including former Bank of New York Mellon Canada CEO Jerome Dwight as President, and Charlie Millar, former Vice President of Content Acquisition at Rogers Communications, as Chief Revenue Officer." This fits nicely with the weekly stochastic situation; An interesting stock to keep an eye on, over the next couple of weeks. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TSXV:DMGI
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Weis Divergence on BTC - So what?Here's a quick video view of the Weis Divergence - I have highlighted the up volume & hidden the down volume. For me this is showing a lot of effort and very little result. Actually retail efforts for the price to move lower. See the COT & Elliott view also inside the video. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
19
Educational chronology Over the last couple of Months, I have published some educational content here @TradingView and wanted to correlate them into one post as they now cover several pages. Starting with some of the fundamentals and into more of the advanced topics; EACH IMAGE IS A LINK TO THE ACTUAL POSTS Starting with Psychology - one of the most important things to pick up on early. There are some great books on trading psychology, one of the best in my personal experience is Trading In the Zone by Mark Douglas. I expanded on this psychology one - by adding cartoons to break down the stages. As for some good books see this post; ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When starting (many new traders are joining sites such as TradingView) for crypto. So when assessing companies/coins to invest in - it's good to have some depth on the company. Here's a guide on assessing alt coins; Another relevant topic in crypto - as there will be dips! IS how to buy the dips. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Chart basics Trendlines; Moving Averages; Mixing timeframes on the chart; A little more advanced MACD; Confusion in Indicators; Gann Fans; ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Emotional analysis - Elliott & Wyckoff Why I called this emotional analysis - is that the way Elliott & Wyckoff could read the situation above the chart price, the fact that human behavior drives markets. Composite man (Wyckoff story) controls the markets based on understanding how humans think. Means this is less technical and more emotional. Elliott Basics; Elliott Level 2; Wyckoff; Wyckoff chart basics; Basics 2; ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Another topic worth mentioning is COT (Commitment of Traders) a report issued once a week on the large money moves, in simple terms. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I know there is a lot here in one post - but I hope it helps going through the basics like this and you can save for reference. This was mainly due to all of these posts being over several pages in my profile. This way it's all accessible. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
12