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Happy (Independence weekend) - Early Logging off for the weekend! I wanted to say, have a great weekend! One question for you - where do you think BTC will be at the close of Sunday (4th of July)??? Up or down? Sideways? What you got? See our signature for more info & related ideas linked below; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT
by Mayfair_Ventures
29
hypnotic Bitcoin - stair at image! Look at the image here with no text alongside it. Only a bit of fun - but BTC can be hypnotic for many! See the 3D boxes when you stair and look through the screen for 10 seconds or more! Just amazing to play around with @TradingView and I thought I would share with our community! Hope your all having a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
13
Bearish as a bear! Hope your having a great weekend! Still bearish here - we put out a few idea posts and the streams recently, still looking very bearish currently and sat on our hands. Here is some help with volume profiles Latest stream www.tradingview.com Saturday BTC update And here is a "Bitcoin long vs bitcoin short indicator, built using the "BTCUSDLONGS and BTCUSDSHORTS" available on Tradingview calculated by Bitfinex. click the images as their all links. Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
29
Volume Profiles on TradingViewIf you are new to @TradingView Or a new trader, there is a pretty useful feature called volume profiles - available with paid membership of Tradingview. This is a quick introduction to and not a full lesson on how to use, strategies or techniques (will post one if there is interest for that). TradingView's own definition of Volume profile Volume Profile is an advanced charting study that displays trading activity over a specified time period at specified price levels. The study (accounting for user defined parameters such as number of rows and time period) plots a histogram on the chart meant to reveal dominant and/or significant price levels based on volume. Essentially, Volume Profile takes the total volume traded at a specific price level during the specified time period and divides the total volume into either buy volume or sell volume and then makes that information easily visible to the trader. Source - www.tradingview.com Types of volume profiles available First there is session volume As it says on the tin - session volume calculates the volume of transactions during the session, boxed off individually on a session by session basis. Inside the session volume;- Second type of volume profile is "Visible range" - again not much of an explanation needed, however - this one is a little more tricky as a lot of novice traders spend a lot of time flipping between charts, time frames and so on. So you need to be careful as it will compute, whatever you have in view on the chart. Here we can see the value area, just like the session - but for the visible range. I have also highlighted the region outside of the value zone - grey area in orange boxes. (for this example) and of course the point of control. By zooming out to another swing high you can see how this changed the profile. This is due to the fact we are now viewing on the chart a different range - A bigger swing with more info inside the calculation. The third type of volume profile on TradingView is the fixed range; In simple terms - this kind of works between the two; you can highlight what you want, but it is then anchored much like the session volume. In this example above, I have shown the fixed range to match a visible range - larger left and the profile larger on the right. As well as a smaller fixed range showing the original smaller range form the visible range image 1. Mix and match - or different use cases; There are several different ways to apply volume, the use case, the logic & the strategy will depend on what one or what combo works best for you. As I mentioned above, I will do a lesson on strategies for volume if requested. In this example below; I have shown a fixed range and a session profile. And finally - just to reiterate, there are several techniques when trading volume, at a glance here you will see a cluset of "PoC's" consolidating at a high before the price moves on down over several sessions. This is just one application. As always, I hope this helps some newer traders out there get into volume profile, It can be a powerful tool when you know how to use it. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Da Bullz are going to marketSo although I am a bullish "spectator" here in ETH, it's still having it's fun! We ran a stream on ETH and it's current situation inside an Elliott cycle. www.tradingview.com We are still watching the price before jumping back in and taking the bull by the horns! Another post on how to assess alt coins - outside of the charts! treat them like stocks. Still sat on our hands, bearish sentiment in a Bullish bias. All we can say, is WAIT! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
MACD - Lesson on what it is, how to useHere’s the basics of a MACD – I will say, I personally don’t use it, but I know it’s a popular indicator amongst newer traders. What is a MACD? A fairly straightforward indicator that calculates the difference between two exponential moving averages – of course this can be tweaked and modified but the standard settings seem to be 26 day and a 12 day. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD), invented in 1979 by Gerald Appel, is one of the most popular technical indicators in trading. The MACD is appreciated by traders the world over for its simplicity and flexibility, as it can be used either as a trend or momentum indicator. Click on the image for the lesson on MA's. The 12 day is considered the fast one and the 26 the slow one – so when people refer to a fast or slow line it is to this they are referring. The calculation is then done on the closing price of both EMA’s. The second measurement is known as a trigger – see image for the 3 components (in orange) the trigger is often, a nine-day EMA of the MACD itself is plotted as well. Histogram - The MACD histogram is an elegant visual representation of the difference between the MACD and its nine-day EMA. The histogram is positive when the MACD is above its nine-day EMA and negative when the MACD is below its nine-day EMA. If prices are rising, the histogram grows larger as the speed of the price movement accelerates, and contracts as price movement decelerates. The same principle works in reverse as prices are falling. How to use it? The MACD generates a bullish signal when it moves above its own nine-day EMA, and it sends a sell sign when it moves below its nine-day EMA. What does this mean? Because there are two moving averages with different “speeds”, the faster one will obviously be quicker to react to price movement than the slower one. When a new trend occurs, the faster line (MACD Line) will react first and eventually cross the slower line (Signal Line). When this “crossover” occurs, and the fast line starts to “diverge” or move away from the slower line, it often indicates that a new trend has formed. This in essence is Divergence… What you will notice here in the recent Bitcoin move; is when the cross happened the price fell. But unfortunately, the divergence trade is not very accurate, as it fails more than it succeeds. So, it’s not as easy as plugging in a MACD and running with it! The MACD histogram is the main reason why so many traders rely on the indicator to measure momentum, due to it responding to the speed of price movement. Many traders use the MACD indicator more frequently to gauge the strength of the price move than to determine the direction of a trend. In the image below; I have removed the EMA’s and kept only the histogram to show the example. You will see that from point A to B on the chart and how it is represented in the histogram & then again from point C to D – both showing bullish momentum from a low point. And in this example below; the Histogram shows more negative strength from X to Y. The Truth No indicator is perfect – no trader is perfect; two wrongs won’t make it right. Some traders swear by MACD and others avoid it. The one thing I can say, is if you keep to its rules then you could make it work for you. Using the indicators histogram over price or entries with Divergence might be what your looking for, then MACD is useful. But don’t rely on especially as the only entry/exit tool. Why did I write this if I don’t use it? Like many indicators, they are lagging – the issue is most educational content online shows MA’s, MACD’s, RSI. Newer traders assume there is some holy grain in terms of indicators. There isn’t – all of what indicators say, can be seen in price – after all it’s what they are calculated on. I’ve written this to highlight the logic of a MACD for newer traders looking or using it. To at least highlight what it is your looking at. Hope it helps somebody out there! For more educational content, see the links below in "related ideas". Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Relaxed - it all makes senseNothing new or un-expected. See the weekly move, called back in May - it needed the pullback This was shared by @Paul_Varcoe around how the DXY effects other instruments; Great educational piece Step down into the Daily We are now up and over bought - So, we are expecting a little base to be built. It was also intrinsic to both out Gold and BTC calls; Overall Bearish sentiment. Now looking for triggers to confirm the completion of the pullback. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXYShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Testing Tradingview's TwitterInteresting article Coin Telegraph - Anonymous crypto. Crypto and blockchain industries need to play by the rules to realize their full potential, Concordium CEO says. Thanks @TradingView Nice new feature! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
A "Welcome to" Pinescript codingThis simple idea is an intro to @TradingView & @PineCoders Nothing fancy or complex, if you are already coding - you can skip this. simple MA build walk through & adding a second MA. If you want to get into coding, then here's the basic introduction. FYI - I am not a coder, 21 years trading experience and know a bit about the instruments - but new to actual coding, especially in Pine. Hope it helps someone! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
49
Quick Bitcoin Overlay videoAnother interesting structure with BTC. Have a look at the overlay's here. Here's the link to part two of the Wyckoff basics; Here's the original call for the drop - the levels were pretty respectful as a whole and hit the target a bit quicker than planned. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Gold BanditsA long time ago, Gold - physical gold for that matter was in high demand. In recent years bitcoin has been talked about as the gold replacement, what do you think? Is there still value in gold? Think back when people would rush to the mountains, in search of gold! Usually the guys getting rich, where the ones selling the shovels. Similar in crypto today, exchanges, brokers and "information sites" are the new shovels! If we look at how respectful Gold can be, it's an awful lot easier to trade than most crypto currently. We can see from the last post, the fake out and mark down. If you look back at the previous calls - pretty much the same, out and out respect. We are currently looking at a DXY pullback (up) which will lower the gold price before a nice rally for Gold sets in. It would be good to get your opinions on Gold - BTC kill it off as we know it or will gold prevail? Have a good week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
The Basics - Trend LinesTrend lines are used in technical analysis to define an uptrend or downtrend. Traditionally, uptrend lines are made by drawing a straight line through a series of ascending higher troughs (lows). ... With downtrends, trend lines are formed by drawing a straight line through a series of descending lower highs. In an uptrend, the “imaginary line” acts as support and in a downtrend, the line connecting the points at swing highs become the resistance. Although we can go into what and why – the logic for trend line, is to keep it simple. It’s another subjective area and people like to spot patterns. It’s human nature. This shows in it's most basic form the concept of a trend line. In an uptrend we want to see, higher highs as well as higher lows as shown below; And in a down trend, the opposite is true - Lower highs & lower lows to create the pattern as per main image of this post. Many other techniques and indicators use this concept, and perhaps the most famous being Elliott waves. Here's a post on Elliott basics; This then all points back to Dow Theory - where markets have 3 cycles and 3 waves (another lesson for another time) in short; Here's also a post covering the Dow basics; You can also use Moving averages as part of "working out the trend" And her is another simple guide to MA's (moving Averages) We thought it would be interesting to post, more of a beginners post that our usual stuff. Hope this helps some of the newer traders. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Dow Theory simple introduction For those of you not familiar with Dow Theory. Here's a simple introduction. Nothing technical just a "welcome to" type of educational post. Short History Dow Has 6 Rules - these are known as the 6 Tenets Dow is mostly known (most obvious - the Dow Jones Industrial Average) Other tools and techniques can fit into the Dow Theory, such as Elliott and Wyckoff. Wyckoff "Buy me now" moves. As for Wyckoff - volume is and was a factor for the Dow Theory; Volume should increase in the direction of the trend in order to give confirmation. It is only a secondary indication but Dow realized that if volume didn't increase in the direction of the trend, this is a red flag. This means that the trend may not be valid. As basic wave principles apply - Dow simplified the inner workings of the market with the 6 tenets. He also came out with some brilliant quotes such as "Money is made by conservative trading rather than by the effort to get large profits by taking large risks." And “A person watching the tide coming in and who wishes to know the exact spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it, and finally recede enough to show that the tide has turned. This method holds good in watching and determining the flood tide of the stock market.” ====================================================================================================================================== Dow theory trading strategy Most trading strategies used today hinge on one key concept, the "trend". This was a novel idea when Charles H. Dow published his writings at the end of the 19th century. Dow theory says that the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages goes above a previous important high and is accompanied or followed by a similar movement in the other average. Therefore, a Dow theory trading strategy is based on a trend-following strategy, and can either be bullish or bearish. So although the times have changed, human nature and the basic principles have not. Some of the theory can easily be applied to instruments such as commodities, Forex and crypto. As I said, this is not a lesson on the trading with, it was more an intro to. Worth some additional research, there are some very interesting books on the subject. Wyckoff basics part 2 )click the image link) Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Emotional Analysis I have posted recently on Wyckoff, Elliott cycled, Gann education and covered psychology. The Thing is - as a long time trader, you often see new comers and the assumption is more indicators, more stuff = better results. Take a step back and view this from 30,000 feet. You looking at finding an edge, an edge can be as simple as risk management and positioning yourself with a great risk to reward system. The problem is, if there was an algo or one indicator that could make you rich. The world would quickly run out of doctors and postmen. What Elliott, W.D.Gann, Wyckoff, Dow and others clearly understood - was not the technical count on the chart, or if this is a UTAD or a spring event. What they appreciated was human nature - psychology. I wrote this post to show how the mindset fits into the chart - When everyone started posting the "Wall Street, cheat sheet" and asking - Where are we? I would respond, depending on where you bought or sold. It's not a group thing. Unless you refer to sentiment - which is another topic again. The issue is - everyone is looking to have their hand held. Indicators can be useful of course. But you cannot depend, rely or only take buy and sell signals. Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you. Benjamin Franklin ================================================================================================================================== So whilst people assume The Elliott's and the Gann's where the titans of technical. There's a deeper skill they tapped into. Emotional analysis. When studying Elliott, you can walk through a certain journey of why the price moves up & pulls back. Why it rapidly grows in wave 3 and why the 4th becomes messy. Elliott knew what drove these moves & how the retail traders follow on like sheep. click link for full article ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wyckoff and Dow - this is not a lesson on the technical side. It's an eye opener. Wyckoff could make a schematic of the logic and emotions inside the chart and simply plotted it. Dow, simplified it into 6 market tenets. But either way they knew more about the market psychology than they did the chart. If you are looking to trade alt coins - you need to understand the project, the team & just like investing in a stock. Get a feel for the company. This last week, I have seen social media posts about "this guy lost this, that or the other" All blaming and pointing fingers at Musk - the truth is if you need to follow a celebrity for stock picking. Chose another sport. Doctors, lawyers, accountants and many professions take many years just to qualify - why is crypto trading any different? Professional traders know this - and currently it's like having penguins in the water for the first time, the pro's are the sharks. PSYCHOLOGY This is all it boils down to. We assume big brother is watching, we assume stocks, crypto etc all being manipulated. There's often talk about FOMO & FUD. Wyckoff knew this as the "Composite man" Truth is - retail do it to themselves 90% of the time, trying to catch tops and bottoms. Not learning market phases or cycles and then blaming everyone else for their mistakes. Everyone wants to strike it rich, one trade and millions. Seems to be the mentality. It needs time & proper risk management. ==================================================================================================================================== If you can take a step back and see the market with "emotional vision" switched on, you will see why Elliott & Wyckoff are applicable today - Humans don't change, the psychology and mindset is still the same. Market manipulation is strong and real - it's just not what you think. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
19
Composite man is a joker! Another Musk tweet - People pointing fingers and crying. If a tweet is an indicator, then it might be worth choosing another sport. It's scary to see social media posts about "i've lost this, that and the other" Musk - was only a short time ago, the Super Hero . It's funny how that changes when it's not with people agree with. Plain and simple - Risk management is key, your own due diligence. Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you. Benjamin Franklin For those of you unfamiliar with Wyckoff - he speak of the composite man, specific schematics for distribution and accumulation. These are designed to play with retail traders, although a lot is done to themselves. Human psychology plays a huge part in trading, fear, greed, passion. The desire to be right, you wonder why you let losses run and take profits early? The green numbers over red, trigger this emotion. Brokers & Billionaires are not there to make retail traders rich. Elliott methods (100+ years old) shows that a wave 4 correction move is similar to Wyckoff, whereby it's aggressive, one way and then the other, it's slow and painful (2 can also be like this) but 4 you see more often. Everyone is a genius in a Bull market. In the stream from today (here's the link) www.tradingview.com I spoke about some other scenario for ETH (only an option) but worth keeping in mind. If you ever wondered what the composite man looked like - see the main image! Enjoy the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
The Great men of the trading worldAs a trader of over 20 years, there has been a lot of trial and error. A lot of learning, it’s still continuing! I wanted to share some interesting pointers with the community; People see charts really look deeper than that. I regard a couple of men in trading terms as the “Greats” Would there be others you consider? Why? Let’s start – the only order is the age (timestamp) rather than preference to their work. Charles Henry Dow (November 6, 1851 – December 4, 1902) was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company. Little known fact, Dow also co-founded The Wall Street Journal, which has become one of the most respected financial publications in the world. He also invented the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of his research into market movements. This guy has his own chart. He developed a series of principles for understanding and analyzing market behavior which later became known as Dow theory, the groundwork for technical analysis. Dow theory explained The Dow theory is based on the analysis of maximum and minimum market fluctuations to make accurate predictions on the direction of the market. According to the Dow theory, the importance of these upward and downward movements is their position in relation to previous fluctuations. This method teaches investors to read a trading chart and to better understand what is happening with any asset at any given moment. With this simple analysis, even the most inexperienced can identify the context in which a financial instrument is evolving. Furthermore, Charles Dow supported the common belief among all traders and technical analysts that an asset price and its resulting movements on a trading chart already have all necessary information already available and forecasted in order to make accurate predictions. Based on his theory, he created the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Rail Index (now known as Transportation Index), which were originally developed for the Wall Street Journal. Charles Dow created these stock indices as he believed that they would provide an accurate reflection of the economic and financial conditions of companies in two major economic sectors: the industrial and the railway (transportation) sectors. ------------------------------------------------ This is another interesting topic in it’s own right, but not for this article. “Pride of opinion has been responsible for the downfall of more men on Wall Street than any other factor.” Charles Dow. ------------------------------------------------ Many of our modern techniques fit into Dow theory in some way, shape or form and most people do not realise this. ===================================================================================================================================== R.N Elliott – Elliott waves to most Ralph Nelson Elliott (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948) was an American accountant and author, whose study of stock market data led him to develop the Wave Principle, a form of technical analysis that identifies trends in the financial markets. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves. Elliott Said “The forces that cause market trends have their origin in nature and human behaviour” as well as “Forces travel in waves, as demonstrated by Galileo, newton and other scientists.” -------------------------------------------- Wave Theory In the early 1930s, Elliott began his systematic study of seventy-five years of stock market data, including index charts with increments ranging from yearly to half-hourly. In1938, he detailed the results of his studies by publishing his third book, The Wave Principle. Elliott stated that, while stock market prices may appear random and unpredictable, they actually follow predictable, natural laws and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers. Soon after the publication of The Wave Principle, Financial World magazine commissioned Elliott to write twelve articles (under the same title as his book) describing his new method of market forecasting. In the early 1940s, Elliott expanded his theory to apply to all collective human behaviors. His final major work was his most comprehensive: Nature's Law –The Secret of the Universe published in June, 1946, two years before he died. In the years after Elliott's death, other practitioners (including Charles Collins, Hamilton Bolton, Richard Russell and A.J. Frost) continued to use the wave principle and provide forecasts to investors. Frost and Robert Prechter wrote Elliott Wave Principle, published in 1978 (Prechter had come across Elliott's works while working as a market technician at Merrill Lynch; his prominence as a forecaster during the bull market of the 1980s helped bring Elliott's wave principle its greatest exposure up to that time). I wrote a few months back an article on the application of Elliott (Click the image for the link.) ============================================================================================================================= Richard Wyckoff This method has had a lot of popularity recently on social media and in @TradingView Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. He is considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott and Merrill. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. Afterwards, while still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades wrote, and edited The Magazine of Wall Street, which, at one point, had more than 200,000 subscribers. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline. From his position, Wyckoff observed numerous retail investors being repeatedly fleeced. Consequently, he dedicated himself to instructing the public about “the real rules of the game” as played by the large interests, or “smart money.” In the 1930s, he founded a school which would later become the Stock Market Institute. The school's central offering was a course that integrated the concepts that Wyckoff had learned about how to identify large operators' accumulation and distribution of stock with how to take positions in harmony with these big players. His time-tested insights are as valid today as they were when first articulated. Although it seems complex – the logic still holds strong and has been seen even in recent Bitcoin moves. (click article – below) to see the types of Schematics. --------------------------------------------- Wyckoff said “Successful tape reading is a study of Force; it requires ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side.” ================================================================================================================ WD Gann William Delbert Gann (June 6, 1878 – June 18, 1955) or WD Gann, was a finance trader who developed the technical analysis methods like the Gann angles and the Master Charts, where the latter is a collective name for his various tools like the Spiral Chart (also called the Square of Nine), the Hexagon Chart, and the Circle of 360 Gann market forecasting methods are purportedly based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics. Opinions are sharply divided on the value and relevance of his work. Gann authored a number of books and courses on shares and commodities trading. There are several techniques using Gann methodology; Here’s one on Gann Fans Gann said “Time is more important than price. When time is up price will reverse.” ===================================================================================================================== Another great man worth a mention, purely on these quotes 😉 If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking. Benjamin Franklin Wyckoff would call this composite man logic! Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you. Benjamin Franklin And this is how I feel the crypto market is currently looking. Any others you think should be on the list, mention in comments and why? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
139
Butt-Head and the other guy. This springs to mind when I watch traders trying to catch the bottom of a move. The issue for me, is that it's structurally moving its corrective move from the ATH. This was a 3 weekly Elliott move. Take a chill and let the market do it's thing. A healthy correction and a new move up will happen. But Elliott (4) moves - especially weekly are here to catch early buyers, and cripple bears in the process. So nothing new or obvious to see in BTC currently. It's meant to be that way. Charles Dow famously said - Pride of opinion has been responsible for the downfall of more men on Wall Street than any other factor. There are several tools to help buy the dip. But sometimes sitting on your hands is the most profitable thing to do. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
Wyckoff basics explainedGoing back to the 18th of March where we called the Buyers Climax top for Bitcoin's "Wyckoff" Distribution phase. We have had a lot of questions regarding the technique. It's a very difficult one to put into only one post - but to understand Wyckoff methodology you need to first APPRECIATE what Wyckoff is about. History Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was an American stock market investor, and the founder and onetime editor of the Magazine of Wall Street. Wyckoff implemented his methods of technical analysis of the financial markets (the study of charts showing movements of stock-prices and other data). He grew his wealth such that he eventually owned nine and a half acres and a mansion next door to the Hamptons estate of General Motors president Alfred Sloan in Great Neck, New York. As Wyckoff became wealthier, he also became altruistic about the public's Wall Street experience. He turned his attention and passion to education, teaching, and in publishing exposes such as “Bucket Shops and How to Avoid Them”, which were run in New York's The Saturday Evening Post starting in 1922. Jump forward - too much detail for one post to cover. Wyckoff's research claimed many common characteristics among the greatest winning stocks and market campaigners of the time. He believed he had analyzed and determined where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He emphasized the placement of stop-losses at all times, the importance of controlling the risk of any particular trade. Wyckoff also has techniques he believed offered advantages when markets were rising or falling (bullish and bearish). The Wyckoff technique may provide some insight as to how and why professional interests buy and sell securities, while evolving and scaling their market campaigns with concepts such as the "Composite Operator". Wyckoff offered a detailed analysis of the "trading range", a posited ideal price bracket for buying or selling a stock. One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the composite operator. Simply, Wyckoff felt that an experienced judge of the market should regard larger market trends as the expression of a single mind. He felt that it was an important psychological and tactical advantage to stay in harmony with this omnipotent player. Wyckoff believed investors would be better prepared to grow their portfolios and net worth by following in his footsteps. The LOGIC Applying this concept in a chart you can identify market phases and cycles - here's the snapshot from a daily BTC move. This relates to one of 4 (master patterns)this particular known as distribution schematic 1. **For the others you can see in the PDF linked below;** Phases - Simplified In this distribution schematic example (literally from Wednesday's BTC exit of the range) you will be able to identify a Buyers Climax (BC) from here, the assumption is that the composite man (strong hand operators) are taking profits - Money flow leaving, this causes an Automatic Reaction (AR). Now many retail traders will assume, this is another pullback (failing to identify the BC) if their on a very small time frame (and many retail traders are operating on lower time frames) then the assumption would be "buy the dip" and for a little while they are correct, we often see this (ST) move up but, this usually fails to go higher than the (BC). Composite man is in control This game is what many retail traders refer to as "Market Manipulation" - whilst the reality is, there is an identifiable pattern. Human beings are greedy, fearful and outright stupid at times. This allows for the perfect schematic to play itself out as the composite man accumulated or in the Bitcoin move Distribute. Here's an example from an older post I did walking through the psychology on a chart. You will see how price action in inextricably linked with the moves caused by the players "you & me" in the market. Later phases of this structure The general idea is for the composite man to accumulate or distribute to obtain a better position for himself, taking the market one way and the other. Often at times, retail will do the last couple of steps among themselves. Although the strong hands are often hedging positions, it is not always required to have their participation as the phases move on inside the structure. As we see a Sign Of Weakness (SOW) - the retail traders would have now seen a lower high and a lower low (logic) However from the (SOW) we move almost impulsively to the Upthrust (UT) the "bulltrap" to many newer traders. At this stage of the post, you might be starting to see inside how the manipulation works? Next phase Range bound - in true Wyckoff terms this region inside the schematic is known as phase B. We chop up and down and eventually create a new higher high. Again in Bitcoin's case we see the ATH. Known as the (UTAD) to Wyckoffian's - Up Thrust After Distribution. This is the climax and from here we see the price breaking down until we anticipate the exit of the range. On @TradingView We have also developed a pretty cool indicator to use one buy and one sell for Wyckoff schematics in particular. You can see how it fits inside the schematic. The logic can easily be assessed and broken down into small parts, step by step. And therefore, if it's something we can program. It is something you can learn. Here is the free link to the other Wyckoff Schematics - drive.google.com Hope you enjoyed this short intro to Wyckoff - see the previous video posts for live Wyckoff overlay examples. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
290
Wyckoff Basics part 2After my last educational wyckoff post - I had a lot of comments, questions and so on. The idea was to post the basics and show the concept - there has been a lot of the overlay, breakdown and other people jumping on this. It was a move we called on the 18th of March (see the "they blew up the rocket" post). In terms of some simple education, Wyckoff is deep and possibly too deep for newer traders. What I was trying to highlight was the existence of such techniques. In part one; I only covered the point of how the distribution phase was playing out in Bitcoin. In this post, I will share some additional depth - for those of you already familiar with Wyckoff techniques you already have this. So we are not covering here (volume, how to identify or any of the more advanced stuff or terms like creeks or mark-ups and downs) Just another simple intro to the basics & a step up from post one. So if you have not seen the first post; check it out here by clicking the image. 4 Major types of schematics The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are a major part of Wyckoff’s work, These schematics are broken down into 2 patterns for accumulation and 2 for distribution. These sections are then divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events - we will cover this later. Distribution schematics So in the previous post & it was fortuitous that Bitcoin was a near textbook example of the distribution schematic #1. The second type of distribution schematic looks like this; As you can see, there are a lot of similarities & it can be confusing, but this is where it's best to dig deeper into the concept, why volume plays a big part in Wyckoff techniques and gain an understanding of the naming convention for each of the events inside. ** We have a naming convention key below ** Accumulation As well as distribution you also have accumulation and this also has 2 (major) schematics; #1 And #2 ====================================================================================================================================== Key; The first phase or ways to identify a schematic forming is with what is called a PS (Accumulation) or PSY (distribution) - this is basically the change of character as the trend moves towards a schematic; Preliminary Support (PS) and Preliminary Supply (PSY). The first significant reaction that occurs after a prolonged rally that indicates budding supply showing up. You then have a BC or SC - buyer climax / sellers Climax; the obvious BC in an uptrend suggesting institutional operators cashing out. and the inverse with the SC. The next major event is the AR - Automatic reaction (rally) - The reaction that occurs after a Buying Climax. It occurs without previous preparation, hence the word “automatic.” and in layman terms it's the exit of large positions after a climax (SC and BC) event. ST next - this is a second test (ST) A name given by Wyckoff to the reaction following Automatic Rally, (or rally following the Automatic reaction.) If that test is associated with small range and light volume — it increases the likelihood that the previous trend is over. Next a move down if it is accumulation would be a SOW - this is "Sign of Weakness" and inverse we have SOS "Sign of strength" In distribution - you then have two major differences over the accumulation schematic; UT = Up Thrust and a UTAD = UP Thrust after Distribution. For distribution you have a spring, think of this like the last drop before moving up rapidly out of a schematic on the Bullish side. You then have "Test" phases usually of the support and resistance levels (zones) created by the schematic as shown in the images above. And finally you have LPSY for distribution Last Point of Supply - A point at the end of the process of distribution where the Composite Man (Large operators) recognizes that demand forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking down prices. Last Point of Support (LPS) which is the accumulation equivalent - A point at the end of the process of accumulation where the large operators recognizes that supply forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking up prices. This is still only the basics, not looking at phases or volume or anything else yet. It's worth going away and studying this in a little more detail to get familiar with the concepts and terminology and in the next post I will cover the phases. ======================================================================================================================================= I know a lot of you readers are here purely for the crypto/BTC calls made - and another logical reason we are still liking a slow move down at this level, comes in the current DXY situation. See this post below as to the current situation there. (the relevance might be small - But understanding the forces at work, with DXY to BTC. Is actually useful). Shorter term strength = will aid BTC slow moves. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:XLMUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
Gold respect Gold has played exactly where it should have done. I expect the next move to run another quick false move up before dropping down, Ideally center of the Regression channel. Will be looking for key levels around there. DXY strength due for a pullback. (Near term moves) Would like to see the lower move not the higher... Bit of fun Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
3
You little DevilI posted a quick update stream this morning for ETH & XRP. Yesterday we covered BTC in a bit more depth. Here's the link to the stream www.tradingview.com Ok so breaking down the basics, we had an Elliott count making this move a major 3 and having a deep correction. If you watch the stream - you will see the XRP and ETH correlation to each other and to BTC. There is an area of concern for me, that would suggest either an ugly move up or we are still in the phase 3-4. Take a look at this stochastic on the weekly timeframe - there is room for a drop to continue, even if it's not deeper. It's not impulsive to the upside yet either. In the Total chart there are also some regions and levels of interest for me. Take a look at this one; Given the correlation and lag on BTC - it is no surprise that most retail traders would have had this feeling over the last 7 days. The dominance on the other.D is another interesting view. We were navigating the move down using a combination of Elliott and Wyckoff and this move played out near enough textbook. Here's a post on the wyckoff basics features recently here on TradingView; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
13
After the Evil wickIt's been amazing to watch the Wyckoff and Elliott moves play out over the last couple of weeks. First Wyckoff call around the 18th of March for distribution. so it's great to see the Genesis wave becoming professionalized. This move has been text book. But the question seems to be "what next?". Let me give you a little glimpse to the thoughts post the evil wick. First of all, I am still sat on my hands - my bias is long overall, but know there's a few things I would like to see happen first. So to start with; Wyckoff retest - to go and test the underside of the previous support levels (now resistance) 2nd - I would like to see some Bullish pressure (beyond hype) measured here using one of our crypto indicators. Something else of interest to me is the cycle count itself. Finally here's a snapshot of one of the indicators to trade Wyckoff shcmeatics with a little assistance. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
28
The Power of Wyckoff - Textbook schematicYou may have seen our last couple of calls & streams. In the idea Video's we have overlaid the chart with the Wyckoff & Elliott schematics behind. We had several key reasons for why this was distribution and not accumulation. I wanted to share a little glimpse of some of the proprietary tools we have developed for both TradingView and our Discord community. This one being very relevant, if you take the Buyers Climax (BC), the UT (Up Thrust) and the UTAD (Up Thrust After Distribution). You will see our Wyckoff indicator helps spot the opportunity to short (in this example). Followed by the indicator being added The Bitcoin play recently has been a textbook example of the Power of Wyckoff. With Wyckoff schematic range showing As always to learn more and get a deeper insight, come join our community. Link below. Have a good evening! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
21