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Mayfairmoney

Showing gold the ropesGold - Check out the last posts for areas of buys and sells. The last call "related ideas" was about the level being interesting on a shorter timeframe. We can expect a little push up here, but it won't last long. There's another push on DXY strength. Bullish as a whole - but not overly bullish in the short term. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
Cubbish Pressure BuildingShort bias still present. Evaluating the Elliott sequence this morning. It's clear to see we are in a Monthly 3 move up. So Bullish bigger picture. However, we have now had a daily 5 push-up. (see previous posts). This 5 wave completes a weekly 3 drive. In the world of Wyckoff, the UTAD creation on a distribution schematic daily. All of this coupled with last night's COT release. See more technical analysis & details in the related ideas below; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Any tips on Tradingview? I've been using Tradinview for several years now. It's been a good platform to use for the charting side. I wanted to make a post to see if there are tools or things that maybe I don't use that others in the community might like and use? Personally, I like things like Parallel channels. This is a great tool instead of drawing trendlines. I have recently enjoyed the Polyline tool, which has allowed us to add some "Homer" to the posts. On a more serious note - the custom indicator aspect is really useful as we have built a few over the last couple of years to put our core strategy on screen. In addition to these, our strategies include Elliott waves - Although we use software on top of TradingView for automated Elliott placement, it's handy having the tool in TV to draw cycles and schematics. As I mentioned above, I would be keen for others to share comments on what they find useful inside @TradingView what tools am I missing? Have a great weekend all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
In ⒼⓄⓁⒹ they trustAnother area worth looking out for some profits. Take a look at the last couple of calls and you will see some interesting areas for gold transactions. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Who's got what?What's the thoughts on Coinbase? Relationships to Bitcoins price? Where the Alts fit in? Sink or swim or mooooooon? Comments and discussions welcome! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
NASDAQ:COIN
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Bit of fun on BTC for the afternoonAfternoon fun - doodle. Barts Head on BTC! where next?? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
93
"Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!"Market Psychology simplified Carrying on the Simsons theme - In the last couple of months, I have written several educational posts & have been lucky enough to see some being selected as "editor picks" After writing some more serious ones, I wanted to write some other posts to have a laugh. I had some great comments, replies, and requests on the back of the first Bart one. Actually enjoyed the art side of it more than I expected. Back in February, I posted a post about market psychology. With feedback from Bart and some requests on psychology, I thought I would write a post using the "Simpsons" to explain the phases. So you have a little daft fun, with a topic worth covering from a technical perspective. Phase one Phase one is Hope we hope we are correct in our analysis, we hope that the market goes in our favour, we hope for moon shots and Lambo's. Think of hope and we think of words like aspiration, desire, wish, expectation, ambition & dream. Hope is what we are feeling before a trade is placed. Phase 2 As a trader, we feel optimistic as the trade goes in our favour, we get excited and dream of the possibilities. What if this goes all the way, what if this account makes me! Bragging rights, money banked - Life doesn't get much better. We can start to relax and unwind and get ourselves into a good place, mentally. Phase 3 Belief - at this stage, nothing could go wrong... Well, we hope and maybe pray for. Trading, things never really play out to plan. We see crazy swings in our favour and wild pullbacks. (often enough to give us heart attacks) So we listen to chilled music, we talk to ourselves & we say a silent little prayer that this is the one! My analysis was correct, I am quietly optimistic about this trade, Lambo - here we come, just a little further. Phase Four Thrill!!! What else is there? At this stage, we are winning in life. Now we are picking the colour of the Lambo. Nothing can hurt us now. In trading terms, this is where life often comes to kick us in the ass! But who cares, we are on top of the world!!! Bitcoin is going to the moon - I bought at $59,000 it's now at $61k I can't lose... The fifth phase Complacency - now back enjoying the beer, we got some great paper gains and we will never see $50k again. Death to Dollar, Rise to Bitcoin and all that! Let's chillout. Phase 6 As the Pullback comes - we start to get a little anxious, will it go below my entry? What? it can't go there, no way. I am an early adopter, I was in and now it's not continuing up???? What the hellllllllll. I can't sleep, I don't want to eat, I'll just take a triple Espresso with a splash of Red Bull. The 7th Phase Denial - This can't be a trend change? It must be an aggressive pullback. Why is it going so low? I don't believe it, I only have 30X leverage on my trade. I'll hold out, it will hit $1 Million a Bitcoin by the end of the week. We hold and hope! Until the leverage gives a margin call... Phase 8 Panic! Pure PANIC Bitcoin falling through my $56,000 floor. I'm 30x Leveraged, please don't drop, please don't. How will I tell the wife I used the kids as collateral? I have to sell out, I can't take another red candle. Maybe the little sprite is toying with me! Phase 9 Why you little.... Yes, Anger sets in. You are out at a healthy loss. It's gone and beat you. Blasted crypto! Must be a scam! I already put a deposit on my pink Lambo. Told the Mrs she could have that diamond ring on Friday. Now what?!>?! The 10th phase Watching Bitcoin move on up, beyond 60, up through 70, into the hundreds. You feel depressed. Trading might not be for you, Bitcoin was a scam. The US government played me. Where next? Work on Monday, How do I tell the wife about the diamond? How do I explain to the Lambo dealer I'd like my deposit back. "Doh, it's a deposit. I've last that as well!" Bitcoin was just an analogy here - these phases happen over and over again. Nothing new, they will repeat themselves over and over again. To visualise this on a chart, you need to go to the psychology post linked below. To go deeper into this, It's worth reading "Trading in the zone". Hope you liked the images and content! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
124
If Crypto was a country's GDPDid you know? The current "Crypto" market cap as around $2TN - there's a chart of @TradingView for this. What's interesting is - that if you look at Global GDP stats as per image above. You will see that if Crypto was an economy it would sit in between Italy and Brazil for size. What Is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health. Look at the stochastic on the crypto market - shown here on a weekly timeframe. This indicator shows the strengths of : Total (Orange Histogram) and then Bitcoin in a lighter orange, finally alts in blue. Take a look at the larger Regression channel. There are a few warning signs here. Let's go deeper... You should probably get to know the Bank Secrecy Act, a nearly 50-year-old law that requires financial institutions in the US to help law enforcement agencies police money laundering. The government could someday try to use the law to impose strict controls on how—and whether—certain blockchain-based currencies can be used. I know people will scream "They can't, Bitcoin, Crypto - it's de-centralized" and all the other good stuff! However, it's the government and they have several ways to make it work in their favour. David Murray's argument To tighten its grip on cryptocurrency, Murray said, the Treasury Department should broaden the BSA’s definition of a “financial institution” to include certain cryptocurrency “service providers” as well. While cryptocurrency exchanges and crypto-asset storage providers are already covered by the BSA, other important participants in blockchain systems remain outside the law’s scope, and that should change, Murray argued. How The US Government Handles Its Massive Stash Of Bitcoin The federal government's relationship with bitcoin has generated numerous headlines over the years, which is surprising, considering that the U.S. government is one of the largest holders of bitcoin. The Forfeiture.gov site, which records Justice department administrative, civil and criminal forfeiture actions, should typically be the place to find out more about the total number of bitcoins held by the government. But, according to the Fortune report, there is a lag between the publication date of an online report and the date of seizure. Reports are also not archived online and paper copies are not made. Bitcoin addresses linking wallets to owners are also not available. This is just some food for thought. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
AUDUSD - Weekly live Elliott plotAs per plotting of the weekly in Advanced Get - we will update these ideas with daily plots. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
“Facts are meaningless" - Homer Simpson I've had quite some fun waiting for the Bitcoin move recently. After a great response from the "Buffoonery" post I was asked about some of the tech depth. So I posted The "Rocket" idea - see all of these below in related ideas. Waiting for things to setup I thought I would play with some art and the chart looked like Bart Simpsons Hairline. So I posted a joke idea which actually got picked as an editor's pick. As our trades are longer type setups it's been great to create some educational posts, I am keen to assist new traders coming to the market. However, along the way you need a little fun. Hence the Simsons post. I am still a firm believer that BTC needs a retracement for it to go higher - just as suggested in the "route to professional attainment" post. The facts are COT data shows more shorts than longs. Even more added in yesterday's report. Grayscale (another post below) have had 30 days of discount offering in the fund. We have "whales" taking coins from exchanges - this is not what you would assume... And about an hour ago, I had a friend here send an interesting article bitcoinist.com Thanks @MiketheN00B Monthly stochastic Respect of an ugly 4 move down Previous COT post So to clarify - I am bearish BTC for this move from 3 to 4 (Bullish as a whole) and have held BTC since 2011. So although we are currently not shorting, we are not avid buyers at this overvalued level. With the previous posts - there's a lot of reason to hold, But there are plenty of reasons to protect the positions and buy value dips. Although I do enjoy playing with chart art and see the funny side of mixing business & pleasure. Have a smile, have a laugh and trade safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Bullish EU...Not 100% ready to long for the long-term. I believe Dollar is about to give another little dart up. Expect the unexpected! Here are a few reasons why. Monthly Quadratics - shows another little move up (White line) - So we assume overall long momentum. The weekly DXY chart stochastic shows an overbought situation - Suggesting another push up for EU. So again Bullish momentum. So why do we think, an unexpected move is due? Take a look at the daily move coming for DXY. Most Retail sentiments show earlier entrants on long EU positions. And that is overly obvious!!! The Basket of currency tools also show Euro is not as strong as one would assume. This can be shown in the stochastic view on the monthly chart for EU. Let's see what COT data suggests later on today. Sat on the fence until further confirmation. Have a great weekend. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
Simplicity...I have posted a couple of posts on BTC & Crypto recently. It's fascinating to see Bitcoin being manoeuvred into its professional status - as a long time trader & investor. It's AMAZING to see all of the long calls and posts. We have monthly stochastic, weekly stochastic, Wave 5 daily completion on Elliott, which is inside a wave 3 weekly. Grayscale fund discounting its offering for a month solid - Whales taking coins from exchanges is not what most people assume. Then we have COT data showing long positions of 2k roughly (*5 BTC) and shorts at 7.2k. Just look at the simple snapshot. Other supporting material such as Grayscale & Elliott in the related ideas below; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Music whilst trading? What do you listen to?After posting some educational content, it's been amazing the conversations that have flooded in. Ranging from questions, requests and just general chit chat. One of the hot topics for beginners has been the use and understanding of Fibonacci levels. So I want to share this and ask. What kind of music do you listen to whilst trading? I saw a trade idea posted by @TradingView a few weeks back about two types of music, varying beats and so on. Recently been introduced to Lofi music - thanks @Zackfx10 Youtube - Night Chill: Night City Hip Hop Jazz www.youtube.com In terms of the chart; The study added is an Octave level; pretty much the same concept as Fib levels, but using Octave frequency calculations instead. It's amazing to see the support & resistance interact at the grey dots. Just interesting as it relates to the Music, beats and waves. Music is a big part of trading and another unique aspect to each individual. Would be interesting to get some ideas on the music front and see what people enjoy whilst trading. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
Sceptical indicators, strategies or tools? Thoughts? So this post is a little different - it's not an analysis or really a tutorial. I am looking to see what the community sees as the strangest, craziest, most colourful, most interesting or pointless indicator, strategy or tool? About 2 years ago I was shown a strategy/technique - I assumed it was complete rubbish, it talks about Lunar dates, cycles. Now although cycles play a role in the market - I wasn't convinced it was powered by the moon. At first, I was very dubious about the concept of what seemed a sceptical idea. Over the years I have studied Fibonacci, Elliott, Gann, Wyckoff and often see logic to the idea. Now and again something pops up on the radar & I like to explore it. I've tested Algo's and Robots, strategies that claim 97% success rate. You name it and it's possibly sitting in the junk hard drive with my FX/trading pdfs, indicators & videos. Delta Phenomenon In the early 80's, Welles Wilder founded the Delta Society International. His purpose was to share the “secret of the order behind the markets.” This order, the Delta Phenomenon, is the basis of all market movement relative to time. All other methods of technical analysis are enhanced by this timing tool. As you will learn, the Delta Phenomenon gives a higher probability of trading success to existing systems. Mr. Wilder states "I have solved the Delta Phenomenon for many different markets over hundreds of years of data and I have never seen a failure in this order." Now at this point - I'm thinking, why isn't this mainstream or this guy not locked up in a nuthouse? I had read other Wells Wilder books and found them to be overly simplistic. In that regard, I was not disappointed. Now as I said at the start of this article, I'm not looking to teach the method - it's such a strange concept, I thought there must be other people out there with things they find interesting or pure crazy? Pitchforks for example - why do they work, how do they work? (not a question, more a statement) How about Gann? Why and how can Gann techniques plot trend lines for the future? Master of the Universe - Fibonacci levels - Again, why??? If you look at the dates on the chart above - these are forecasted using the delta technique, in theory, it's trying to predict moves in the market using moon cycles. Blank circles are daily turn points, circles & dots are major moves and the large circles with both, are dates whereby both near and medium dates co-exist. I am keen to hear what you think? Do you know of the delta phenomenon? Have you used it? What about something else similar? or just something you find interesting or/and random? How about something you are sceptical about? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Bitcoin route to professional attainment.In the last couple of weeks, we have posted several BTC, crypto and alt coin posts. This has been followed up with updates and comments. Going back over them, we thought it best to correlate the info under one post. So related ideas from the short call. Here's why we saw the short move. Daily Elliott 5th wave being completed - linning up nicely at the time of the post with the extension level on the weekly. The weekly view. Weekly with extension. These show the potential for weekly targets. Confirmation on the weekly Stochastic. They blew up the rocket post - see linked ideas below; The follow-up as it played out. GRAYSCALE This is an interesting topic in it's own right. Divergence from the Oscillator. Divergence to the BTC price. Lastly - SEC filing for annual report. Check out the dates. Then we looked at total market cap and the situation compared to monthly and weekly Elliott structure - look at the Stochastic region. Comparisons Interesting to see what other assets in the market are doing with and around bitcoin. BTC/SPX BTC/Gold BTC/DJI Into the local move - after the first post. Interesting channel levels being respected. Key price points on the 4 hour timeframe. Expectations lower timeframe at 1 Hour. Hope this makes sense - maybe after reading some of the other posts. The intention here was to put the info from those posts into this one. Giving some depth and logic to why the calls and what we see next. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Requested update; As per previous postsHad a few comments & requests regarding the last couple of BTC calls - see this imparticular; I am 100% Bullish on the tech as a whole, but to move on up we should expect a corrective move. This as per the last calls shows how and why we are going about it. In terms of updates to that post and the couple before it please see below; Starting with the monthly view; Then the weekly; And into the daily; We have supporting COT data going back to the beginning of this year; Please excuse poor drawings taking from our tool outside of Tradingview & couldn't copy exactly. See below-related idea links; ➀ Institutional Bitcoin - Long overall ➁ Merriment - showing how these moves can be playing by the rules as of this first real move ➂ Buying the dips - This is exactly the kind of idea to scale in further on the move down ➃ Bitcoin Buffoonery - further examples of why the short move is here ➄ They blew up the rocket - exact levels (as they played out) showing the respect ➅ Alt coins view (a little different) I hope this makes sense to the people who followed the last posts and saw the levels play out. We are still in the move 4 down which is more than likely going to be a slow, messy, complex wave. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
BTC (Bitcoin) Grayscale is interesting.About 80% of the investments in the trust, which now manages $38.5 billion, is from institutional investors, Grayscale disclosed at the end of last year’s third quarter. ***COT data is showing Longs of (5 Bitcoins) 2,335 & shorts at 7,144. The discounted shares in the trust suggest that institutional investors are rushing to sell shares in the trust, perhaps preferring to invest their Bitcoin in vehicles that undercut Grayscale’s 2% management fee and avoid its brutal redemption schedule. Grayscale Now Owns More Than 3% of Total 21 Million Bitcoins That Will Ever Exist... The weekly Stochastic is up at it's high. The alt coins smoothed Oscillator is running only slightly above BTC. However the Total market cap has had 3 nice peaks up and now the momentum sideway showing a 3rd down wave on the oscillator. Then we have the Grayscale ocean of divergence. Grayscale chart (no drawings) In the absence of a Bitcoin ETF in the USA, Grayscale’s trust remains one of the only ways to invest in Bitcoin through a regulated investment product. “Prices would rise for sure someday,” speculated trader Kushagra Singh in an interview with Decrypt. See the related ideas below for more of the technical analysis on BTC. COT - www.cftc.gov News article - decrypt.co Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
Simplified Elliott; It can be confusingElliott wave is a great tool to have in your arsenal - I have been asked more and more about it recently. So I wanted to share a simplified breakdown. Of course it can be complex and detailed, it also requires constant tweaking. The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale. (see linked idea below on this topic) Background Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948). He was an American accountant and author. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. Elliott was able to analyze markets in greater depth, identifying the specific characteristics of wave patterns and making detailed market predictions based on the patterns. Elliott based part his work on the Dow Theory, which also defines price movement in terms of waves, but Elliott discovered the fractal nature of market action. Elliott first published his theory of the market patterns in the book titled The Wave Principle in 1938. (source elliottwave-forecast.com) Why is it useful? Some traders swear by this method. others like myself like the concept and use it as part of the strategy. For me personally, I use it for the monthly and weekly directional bias. Smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. In this sense, Elliott Waves are like a piece of broccoli, where the smaller piece, if broken off from the bigger piece, does, in fact, look like the big piece. This information (about smaller patterns fitting into bigger patterns), coupled with the Fibonacci relationships between the waves, offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for and identifying trading opportunities with solid reward/risk ratios. So where to start? First, identify Major swing highs and lows - True Elliottitions will go back several years in the analysis to get an exact count. But for the purpose of this explanation, I have taken the monthly swing highs and lows to identify a starting point. This is good enough for how I utilize Elliott principles. Once I have a starting point I am looking for a bias - Is this an impulsive or corrective move? This is what usually confuses people new to Elliott Theory, it can be very subjective. Hence constantly moving and re-plotting as price does what is expected - or completely against the trader's expectations. 3 Rules Most Elliott traders can agree - there are rules for every scenario, so in simple terms use these 3 rules as a starting point. Corrective moves can be complex as you will see if you dig deeper into Elliott Wave - that there are several ways of "fitting" the patterns into the current scenario. - this is just a simple example - more can be found on elliottwave-forecast.com Some other nuggets A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation. Wave 3 is an extension of 161.8% of the first wave in the Elliott wave count. This means that the third wave forms right after the completion of the second wave. To identify the 3rd wave, the second wave has to be complete and fall within the general rules of Elliott waves. NEW VS OLD The biggest change in today’s market compared to the one in 1930s is in the definition of a trend and counter-trend move. We have four major classes of market: Stock market, forex, commodities, and bonds. The Elliott Wave Theory was originally derived from the observation of the stock market (i.e. Dow Theory), but certain markets such as forex exhibit more of a ranging market. In today’s market, 5 waves move still happen in the market, but our years of observation suggest that 3 waves move happens more frequently in the market than a 5 waves move. In addition, the market can keep moving in a corrective structure in the same direction. In other words, the market can trend in a corrective structure; it keeps moving in the sequence of 3 waves, getting a pullback, then continues in the same direction again in a 3 waves corrective move. Thus, we believe in today’s market, trends do not have to be in 5 waves and trends can unfold in 3 waves. It’s therefore important not to force everything in 5 waves when trying to find the trend and label the chart. As I said on the front cover - this is not for experts, it's an intro to Elliott Theory. If there are Elliott traders reading, please contribute to the post. Add anything you find useful. The other post mentioned above was how the mindset plays into these waves and the overall moves. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
91
Beginner basicsHappy Holidays all - 🐣🐥 After writing a few educational posts recently, it has been interesting to see the comments & DM's. Years ago we set out training traders the basics; we called the trades "starbuck bets" the idea was for some people, extra money each week was what they were looking for from trading. For others it was extra money for a daily coffee on the way to the 9-5. Skip forward several years and now the training has gone mostly online - this is great on one hand, but a nightmare on the other. Where do you go for education? why go with a certain company? How much should you pay? What do I get? The issue now is although forex is a legitimate instrument there is a lot of people out there, making more from training than they are trading - how do you navigate this? How do you know who is going to teach you what you really need. In terms of the basics - a great FREE tool is babypips. If you are new to trading, it's well worthwhile going to get to terms with the basics, at your own pace. Pointers from the pros - some other great resources include sites such as investopedia. Although this is a bit more specific if you are researching an indicator or want to understand more about an instrument and so on. Obviously, there are some great books available (see related ideas) I posted an idea a few weeks back with 20 books worth a read as a trader. 5 key pointers when starting out 1 - 🐑) Selecting a broker; even before you get here - go read babypips and follow these 5 points. But after that, selecting a broker should include searching for regulated companies, check with the local (per country) regulation authorities such as the FCA in the UK, the SEC in the states. Most countries have lists available for this. If there's no record of the company being regulated then you should treat it as a red flag. To manage money in most countries*** it's a requirement to have some kind of financial license. 2 - 📖) Go read, babypips first and from there take a deeper dive into understanding the market. Read financial articles, stock market books, website tutorials, etc. There's a wealth of information out there and much of it inexpensive to tap even free. It's important not to focus too narrowly on one single aspect of the trading game. Even reading through ideas on tradingview - just don't follow the ideas, you should be doing your own research. 3 - 🎲) Study the basics of technical analysis and look at price charts—thousands of them—in all time frames. And when you think you have done enough, go back and study some more. Get a feel for the character of the instruments you are keen to trade. Again another pro tip - don't go chasing too many pairs, you can make a lot of money on a single tool. So try to spend the time to learn 1-3. Think of this step like learning a language, you wouldn't try to learn Russian, Chinese and Australian (joking about Australian) all at the same time. Treat the charts the same!!! 4 - 🔤) Demo account - Start off with a demo account, try to find one that might offer the same kind of money as the amount you intend on investing. If you have a demo account of say $100,000 but you only intend on trading $1,000 - then I would suggest you open a trade at $10,000 a pip and lose 99% of your account! Then start with $1,000 demo size. Some brokers you can message and they will set this for you. Treat this like a real account, try to make it feel as real as possible - feel the pain, feel the stress and understand the power and value. If you treat a demo 10 times or 100 times more than you plan on trading just as a game - when you invest real money, the market will eat your investment for breakfast! 5 - 🎯) The most important of all of these points - RISK MANAGEMENT If you learn the basics, go through babypips, learn the charts and then use the demo account. The golden rule of trading is pure and simple "proper risk management" you can lose 80% of all of your trades and still be successful. If you learn to obtain a market edge and use statistics then you will have a long-term advantage. The issue is people come to trade, thinking "traders make money", "trading is easy", "trading is a get rich quick thing" - the issue is over 75% of new traders lose money! Although this is only covering the basics - I hope this helps. If you need to ask, should I buy or sell - go back to step one, If you don't know how to set a stop loss or even what a stop loss is - go back to step one. Happy Holidays! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Why $$==DOLLAR==$$ SucceedsStanding on Its Own as the World’s Reserve Currency In 1944, delegates from 44 Allied countries met in Bretton Wood, New Hampshire, to come up with a system to manage foreign exchange that would not put any country at a disadvantage. It was decided that the world’s currencies couldn’t be linked to gold, but they could be linked to the U.S. dollar, which was linked to gold. The arrangement, which came to be known as the Bretton Woods Agreement, established that the central banks would maintain fixed exchange rates between their currencies and the dollar. In turn, the United States would redeem U.S. dollars for gold on demand. Countries had some degree of control over the currencies in situations wherein their currency values became too weak or too strong relative to the dollar. They could buy or sell their currency to regulate the money supply. As a result of the Bretton Woods Agreement, the U.S dollar was officially crowned the world’s reserve currency and was backed by the world’s largest gold reserves. Instead of gold reserves, other countries accumulated reserves of U.S. dollars. Needing a place to store their dollars, countries began buying U.S. Treasury securities, which they considered to be a safe store of money. So where is the Dollar today? With the Global Pandemic - Dynamics have changed, but will they stay that way? Or will business go back to normal for the Dollar??? In Elliott wave terms - we have plotted the DXY using software from Advanced Get - the monthly currently has two variable settings as per below; Version 2; This intersection is quite interesting for DXY (the Dollar) as a whole, the moon cried of the crypto arena. Gold not behaving as expected in current conditions, Oil dripping (excuse the pun)below zero this year for the first time ever... So are we seeing a transition overall, or expected to go back to normal? Weekly Elliot wave - inside the monthly This coupled with the current Schematic structure. We also have a couple of key areas just above to keep an eye on. What's your take on Dollar? will crypto/Bitcoin affect it? Will SPX keep on going, or will we see a sizable pullback this year? BITCOIN & CRYPTO We should see a decent pullback from these highs before a continuation up. What effect will this have on DXY? GOLD Will we see an increase here in Gold or is the digital gold taking over silently? DOW JONES Again sink or swim at this interchange? It's worth comparing some of these when making an assessment of the currency markets. SPX - US500 With charts like this, we are more likely to moon with SPX or DJI than we are with BTC. I would be keen to hear from traders who focus on Gold, SPX, DJI or/and Bitcoin. I don't think the alt coins are in contention for the title (yet). Feel free to add your own charts in the comments below; any global gauges? indicators or tools you like when trading these instruments? ♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟ ***Source Article - www.investopedia.com Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXY
by Mayfair_Ventures
7
Bitcoin - They blew up the rocket?Enjoying the moves recently and very very interesting to see the institutional transition. Giving 9 out of 10 calls are still "moon shots" I feel the Elliott formations/Wyckoff structures are starting to look to be in play. Going all out on a limb. I would like to see from here, a liquidity grab around $30k, or on the next confirmation long is a break and retest of 72k. See the previous post for the main reasons behind a drop. However, to summarise it Institutional money would like to buy long but at a discount. That could be near a 50% mark and not really dent the sides. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
73
The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVEElliott Wave Post 2; after writing the first post I have received some questions. So I thought it easier to write a follow-up post here showing some tricks. To be clear, I am not an Elliottition as a whole, I use it as part of a wider strategy on the monthly and weekly timeframes. But also we have access to an automated Elliott wave tool. The Elliott wave logic still works today and with a couple of little tricks, you will be able to use to help forecast potential target zones. Elliott can be very subjective and the saying goes "if you ask 10 Elliott wave traders where to plot the waves, you will get 9 different answers" So just like everything else, you need to use it wisely and not rely solely on it. Again to reiterate - this is not a full-out lesson, there's more to learn on the topic. But these little tips will help you along the way, even to get into the overall concept a little quicker. Step 1 - if you have this in your mind, you will be able to start the process for an overall measure. Major rule Wave 2; If you can identify a wave 2 but it is less than 50% of wave 1 - be careful as it could create a double bottom (in an uptrend) and dip a little lower before moving up. with 1 & 2 identified you can start working on estimations for 3. Knowing wave 3 is usually 1.618 or 2.618 - will give you a good idea of where price is heading. Again you could use things like Stochastic or RSI to assist the directional bias when you feel you have identified the 2. Let's go all out - let's say we have the perfect setup... We can also say that a lot of the time, wave 4 is around 38.2% of wave 3 and often no greater than 50% (whereas, wave 2 is often more than 50%) Then lastly, if we know a potential target for 3 (maybe draw 2 target levels to test) we can use that with 2 levels for the 4 move 382 and 50 as a rule of thumb. You can see what works best for the instrument you are trading. How they play out with backtesting and so on. It would be great to get some additional comments from traders who use Elliott every day, even from new traders only now getting into Elliott waves. Any additional tips or trips from the pro's for the newer traders? If you are new to Elliott waves - see the related post below for the basic concept. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
35
Fall In Love With ALT COINSLess of a Long/Short call and more of an interesting view on the market in terms of crypto. For more info see the posts below (Related ideas) where they are more in depth. This indicator is showing the Total Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin & the Alt market - Correlation and divergence. 30 days - Alt Correlation of some of the top coins; Feel free to request a matrix of other coins below. It would be interesting to see what Alts the community is looking at. Why are you looking at these ones in particular? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
7