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Mayfairmoney

Beware of the LIES YOU WANT to hear (Scam)Why you should absolutely do your own analysis – It doesn’t matter if it’s fundamental, technical or purely going off the price action. People will argue this, that and the other – everyone has their own opinion, and that’s fine. But when it comes to trading there’s nobody who knows you better than you. I love reading posts that say – “don’t forget to like and follow me, this helps the creation of new content” – scary thing is, if that’s what helps then what about trading? shouldn't that be the income support? Recently I had a conversation after a post here. (yes, short Bitcoin) – the discussion went something like this. “Why would you say that, everyone is buying” the response – because everyone who says they are buying now are part of the 90% of retail traders who lose. This is unfair for me to say, but it needs saying. The issue with following, herd mentality is it’s not as easy as (BUY/SELL) – you might have a different entry, a slightly different tolerance for risk or a shorter holding expectancy. Doing your own due diligence goes way beyond watching some news or drawing lines on the chart. It’s everything from risk management to holding time expectations. You take the $1Bn Musk pumped into Bitcoin recently – if Bitcoin drops 50%, he holds a paper loss of 500m. However, if you’re a retail trader sticking in $10k and you see a 50% drawdown, and most likely leveraged the trade! You won’t stick around. Think logically, if Tesla shares drop by 20% and most of Musk’s net-worth is tied to the stock price (not going into numbers and detail, for this example only) then Musk's net-worth at assuming $150bn will be down somewhere in the billions. ($500m now seems like nothing, no?) It is all relevant! There’s no silver bullet – no automation tool is going to go make you rich, as soon as that happens the company selling it will be employing traders not selling software. Indicators are areas to look at and not the gospel. Projects and prices, especially the likes of Tesla & Bitcoin on the charts – need sellers for buyers to interact with. If the price goes to the moon, then who’s selling? Ah – don’t stress, it’s being mined & everyone is a buyer! Yup, that’s exactly how the Bitcoin price will jump to $1m a coin. Smart money – I often see this mentioned in posts, “smart money concepts” Go look at the smart money analyzed data www.goldmansachs.com smart money is winning 200 days on average out of 22o trading days. Year after year. (They ain’t buying signals). Psychology is a big part of your analysis – just like the comment on Musk above, you need to trade your own style that marries your tolerance of risk. Here’s a post recently on the mindset in trading and how that looks on a chart. If you take a look at retail sentiment – you already know 75% of retail traders (me and you) lose money trading, if retail is buying something (namely Bitcoin) what do you think the smart money is doing? As of this very minute we have 87% retail sentiment long and COT data showing 2k long positions & 6.7k short Bitcoin positions. So, let’s think this through – who is currently selling to the moon pioneers? Yup – the guys who win 200/220 days a year. That’s smart money. This is not a rant, it’s not a forecast or projection, it’s simple education. When trading, it’s important to do your own research – know your own risks, holding periods and develop your own style. "Successful people never worry about what others are doing" - Unknown. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
26
30 Days Alt - BTC CorrelationCorrelation: Positively correlated variables like to move together, negatively correlated variables move inversely to each other, and uncorrelated variables move independently of each other. Quantifies the estimated strength of the linear association between two variables. It ranges from +1 to -1. 0 indicates no linear correlation. Given the whole Buzz on Crypto and Bitcoins Moon landing nearing, I thought it would be good to share some of the top currencies and their correlation over the last 30 days. Discussions always welcome. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Using Comparisons as indicators?After sitting in on one of @scheplick live streams last night. It got me thinking about starting a discussion with the community on tools used outside of the conventional methods. Comparisons, or using other instruments to calculate/forecast other aspects of your trading. Sure we can use things like Interest rates or 30 year bonds, take a measure of curves in the Dow Jones. But what tools - pairs - crosses or instruments do you find interesting and why? In the crypto world - Bitcoin is changing the dynamic & I can't stress enough - it can't and will not keep moving up at 90-degrees. So how does it interact with the Dow, SPX or Gold? Be great to get your thoughts and opinions here on the topic. Share ideas, regardless of the tool, cross or instrument. See some examples below; Silver to the Dow Jones The Fed's Balance sheet - this is interesting in its own right. How about Gold to the Dow - take a look at the stochastic level Now overly gold as a comparison. Then you have the US500 (SPX) compared with Gold You can use this to get a multiplier of the neutral cash ratio Then overlay with the calculation Take a look at some crypto - Bitcoin & SPX Bitcoin to Gold And Bitcoin to the DJI (Dow Jones) As I said, it would be fascinating to get ideas & opinions - where you use crosses like this, why you find them interesting. Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
How To Lose Money With CONFUSION (timeframe mixing) The issue for many new traders is understanding the correlation between timeframes. We often get caught up in indicators, news hype, chat room posts, and various other things. One of the biggest challenges I see when talking to new traders is simply the lack of "experience" in reading multiple timeframes. This causes confusion and even self-doubt. The issue with the internet being so vast is there is a lot of info - but what do you go with & why? In this post I have tried to "dumb it down" - the simple idea is to pick your timeframes based on your trading style. Now if work gets in the way and you need to trade end of day or even swing (Longer-term) then really, you shouldn't stress so much about a 15 minute candle. A lot can happen throughout the day. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, if you are sat in front of your screen every minute the market is open. (scalping) then trying to work out what the monthly is doing whilst you hold a trade for an hour is not going to affect your trade (in general). To give you a great example of this - I trade COT data as it's swing, with Monthly and weekly bias. I will have a mentee say something like "COT is a buy, but the price has dropped". Yes if you're looking at the 4-hour candle. If you think what institutional players can manage in terms of drawdown, especially using hedging techniques. It's far greater than the guy investing £5k of savings into Bitcoin. If a hedge fund buys Bitcoin at 45k and the price drops to 22.5k - the likelihood is they have a hedged position & will be buying it all back at fair value. Whereas Mr £5k has lost some sleep & half of his capital - bailed, only to see the price shoot back up above his original entry. You think of someone like Elon Musk - if his entry of a Billion Dollars was at 40k (example) and price drops to 20k, he has a paper loss of 500m for sure, it will hurt. But again if the Tesla share price drops from 800 to 700, he has a paper loss of (say 20 Billion) - a 500m loss on paper is less of a concern. *** You get the picture. Investors & traders know that things don't just moon! they have dips, impulsive moves and so on. So take the charts into account - You have an idea of what timeframes to pick based on your own personal availability or your style you have already identified. As a scalper it's easy to use 4 hour or even a 1 hour candle for your bias - a 15minute for a local area of interest & an entry on a 1m - 5m chart. (example only). If you trade swing trades (depending on the overall time & expectations) a weekly bias, a daily interest and a 4hour trigger could be what you look for. Here are some examples; In these examples - all I have done is used 1 tool. This is only to show the idea - If stochastic is up then I want to be Bullish, if down I'll consider Bearish moves. Keep in mind this could be anything from above/below a moving average, a key price level or a magnitude of other things. Even other tools like RSI for example. Example of step down The idea is this gives you a directional bias. Then we look at the area of interest. And finally - we want to look down on the next timeframe for the trigger (entry) Traders can easily get confused with one timeframe saying one thing and the next timeframe up or down saying something else. If you can treat it like a tick sheet, you can step down with confidence and work on a strategy favouring your directional bias & that's in confluence with the time period & your expectations. This really is an oversimplified breakdown. Just to give a general idea. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Bitcoin buffoonery (BTC)As per the last call - Bitcoin has had its move up. Check the link below. Here are a few reasons for it to drop - Don't get me wrong, I am still very bullish on this as a whole. But as a trader, we can rise these moves both ways. COT data still shows a net short position for BTC - making this a possible Bull trap breaking the ATH. In addition to that - step out to the monthly timeframe; Filling in the wick is common practice - setting a bull trap at a monthly regression high. The monthly and weekly have overbought Stochastics. As well as the weekly hype plateau. As for the daily timeframe - you can clearly see a regression high touch nearing. We still have a little momentum in the Quadratic curve, as well as the Stochastic levels favoring a little nudge up before its consolidation phase. On the 4 Hour - we are also agreeing with the points above - nearing the highs on the Regressions and Stochastic areas. We are also approaching a Mean Reversion level high on the 4 Hourly Lastly - the Crypto domain is having a nice rally, including altcoins. We can see from the Crypto Strength 2/3 main currencies are still sat in Bullish momentum. See the previous posts for more details. Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) I have recently had some questions on some of the basics such as moving averages. First of all, there is some great free content out there via sites such as Babypips I wanted to share some simple info to at least explain what a moving average is. Where it is used and what are the types of. Moving average is a simple, technical analysis tool. Moving averages are usually calculated to identify the trend direction of a stock or to determine its support and resistance levels. It is a trend-following—or lagging—indicator because it is based on past prices. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moving averages are a totally customizable indicator, which means you can freely choose whatever time frame they want when calculating an average. The most common time periods used in moving averages are 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days. The shorter the time span used to create the average, the more sensitive it will be to price changes. The longer the time span, the less sensitive the average will be. @TradingView has many of these tools to use under the list of indicators. A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on closing prices; for example, a 5-day simple moving average is the five-day sum of closing prices divided by five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves. Old data is dropped as new data becomes available, causing the average to move along the time scale. Then you have an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the number of periods in the moving average. EMAs differ from simple moving averages in that a given day's EMA calculation depends on the EMA calculations for all the days prior to that day. You need far more than 10 days of data to calculate a reasonably accurate 10-day EMA. Highlighting the difference between an MA & an SMA - The Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), in that it aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. The indicator takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. Then how it can be used and applied, *** There are many strategies out there, the most basic starts with above or below a level (above = buy, below = sell) And then it steps into two moving averages crossing for example. Also as I mentioned above - other indicators use a form of moving average to calculate their plot. Another simple strategy - Investopedia This moving average trading strategy uses the EMA, because this type of average is designed to respond quickly to price changes. Here are the strategy steps. 🍒Plot three exponential moving averages—a five-period EMA, a 20-period EMA, and 50-period EMA—on a 15-minute chart. 🍒Buy when the five-period EMA crosses from below to above the 20-period EMA, and the price, five, and 20-period EMAs are above the 50 EMA. 🍒For a sell trade, sell when the five-period EMA crosses from above to below the 20-period EMA, and both EMAs and the price are below the 50-period EMA. 🍒Place the initial stop-loss order below the 20-period EMA (for a buy trade), or alternatively about 10 pips from the entry price. 🍒An optional step is to move the stop-loss to break even when the trade is 10 pips profitable. 🍒Consider placing a profit target of 20 pips, or alternatively exit when the five-period falls below the 20-period if long, or when the five moves above the 20 when short. I hope this helps - Please feel free to add more info below. Any suggestions & comments to help new traders, always appreciated. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
97
Ironic whale Bitcoin Literally, whales jumping in on Bitcoin. This is not an analysis of any sort. Was using the Polyline tool on another pair and thought I would try it on the highs and lows of Bitcoin. Too much time on the charts! that's the issue. Anyways, a little bit of fund I found Ironic! All you need is a smile! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
12
Gold short term - re-test the dip (into structure) and go. Revisiting the Gold moves lately, It respected structure basically to the cent. Looking at a shorter-term retest of the low - stochastic and Quadratics show this is a plausible scenario before we go North again. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
AUDUSD - long move (shorter term)Quick and simple long move here up into the zone. A lot of other reasons for the move, including retail sentiment and overall COT bias. Shorter timeframe than we usually trade these moves. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Where do you struggle?After my last couple of posts, I want to ask the question rather than just throwing ideas out there! What aspect of trading do you fear? Why? What do you think you could improve on? Anything!!! Be interesting to see comments. Personally, I can overanalyze and talk myself out of good setups. I've also been knowing to jump in trades too early. This could be anything from risk management, psychology, wrong entries, taking profits too early, too many indicators, following the crowd? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
Bitcoin - merriment turns professional I have recently written a few posts on Bitcoin. As an early adopter, I have been tracking the tech since early 2011, my work outside of trading is in technology (including Blockchain) So with a tech hat on - the last couple of weeks have shown a transition in the technology domain, more acceptance and more blockchain based projects. Almost like the rise in 2017. However, with a pure trading hat on - It's now clear to see the transition from full out speculation, your friends talking Bitcoin in the pub, your family asking for advice on crypto, people you haven't had communication with for 20 years, reaching out to say they bought some. The "Bitcoin Instrument" is in the transition. Institutional money has started to treat the coin & not the sector (yet) as any other investment tool. You can clearly see from the COT data, the patterns in the move and the respect of key value areas. The move from every man and his dog, owning major positions, 10,000 Pizza's - to now a tool for the big boys. Which means although we will of course have major impulsive moves. They are more likely to be controlled. On the 28th of Feb, I drew out the next key value area. (also see older posts on the topic) As of this morning, we can clearly see the respect of the level holding. This combined with current COT "short/Long" positions will highlight even more the transition. Comments on BITCOIN or/and Crypto in general...??? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
GOLD AdventuresFollowing the last couple of Gold (XAUUSD) Calls, It's giving a reason to accumulate a position down here for a push back up. As it's at the end of a deep move the accumulation may be a little more complex. The majority of retail traders are still long. So I expect a further dip before a rise. But as DXY is about to make some new ground higher completing its Elliott wave 4 move up. I feel the inverse here, complex bottom - gather momentum and up. See the last gold call before in the link below and some info on Elliott in relation to the current wave 4 move. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
📖 Trading Books 📖As a trading coach & mentor, I often get asked about where to go and find resources. Anything from books to specific strategies. So I thought it would be interesting to not only share with the community some books I have liked over the years. But to ask for your favorite books, any suggestions - any thoughts on the books listed? Even if they're slightly outside of the conventional trading manual concepts - there are some great Wall Street stories, banking or business esq books. Be great to get some conversations going! Here's the second wave. The next wave - moving away from trading manuals per se; Another list; And lastly some books worth mentioning but were just off the top 20 spot. So what are your best books? why? what do you make of some of the books mentioned? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
52
👽 Bitcoin Dominance or something else?After the last couple of posts, I have received all sorts of questions and requests. I thought it might be interesting for "especially the crypto traders" to ask the question, gather your opinion on so on... 🌟What do you make of crypto? 🌌As a whole? 👑Bitcoin's dominance? 🎰Other assets? 🎱Other crypto projects? Here's a couple of snapshots - This shows bitcoin Stochastic levels on a monthly timeframe. Similar stochastic levels on a weekly. This image show the current COT (commitment of traders) sentiment over the last couple of weeks (why we are struggling to go beyond the $50k region maybe?) Bitcoins - Regression channel on higher timeframes The last image show the other coins - excluding Bitcoin - it's current local order blocks and regression trend. I would love to get your opinion, Ideas, thoughts on the situation. Pro or anti crypto - pro Bitcoin or have an amazing project in the crypto space... Let's see what feedback brings. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
BUYING THE DIPS Made SimpleBuying dips can be tricky, the issue is knowing if it's an actual dip or a full trend reversal. I used to think buying at a lower price to double down on an investment going the wrong way was a good idea. However, after reading a book called the Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther - the penny actually dropped. In essence, profit is profit. It does not have to be made from a stock or instrument that you are currently losing. Know when to run, when to cut losses and when to stick with it. Unfortunately by the time you understand true hedging techniques, you will be too late. Kenny Rogers said it best - "You've got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run" I highly recommend both the Zurich Axioms book and a listen to Kenny Rogers - The Gambler. The logic behind buying the dips 🍒 Buying the dips refers to going long an asset or security after its price has experienced a short-term decline, in repeated fashion. 🍒 Buying the dips can be profitable in long-term uptrends, but unprofitable or tougher during secular downtrends. 🍒 Dip buying can lower one's average cost of owning a position, but the risk and reward of dip-buying should be constantly evaluated. Simple Ideas for buying dips Use an arsenal of tools to help you spot opportunities. You will see in this image RSI and MACD have different ideas - there is no wrong or right, it's up to you to work on the things that work for you. However, you don't want tools that either do more or less the same thing or conflict. So as per the first image - using a moving average for (up or downtrend) this could be a larger period such as a 200. Envelopes Utilizing envelopes of sorts will help visualize channels - this could be tools such as Bollinger Bands or Regression channels. Much like Moving averages - you won't need both and there are thousands of tools I have not used. So you need to experiment with something that you like or suits your needs and style. Like all trading strategies, buying the dips does not guarantee profits. An asset can drop for many reasons, including changes to its underlying value. Just because the price is cheaper than before doesn't necessarily mean the asset represents good value. Trend lines can be very subjective and educators and mentors teach them in a million different ways. They can be used, but again - back test and find what works for you. - you can see the difference between a simple trend line and conflict with Bollinger; this is what causes doubt. The subjective trendline says one thing and the calculated/measured tool says another. Which do you follow? The problem is that the average investor has very little ability to distinguish between a temporary drop in price and a warning signal that prices are about to go much lower. While there may be unrecognized intrinsic value, buying additional shares simply to lower an average cost of ownership may not be a good reason to increase the percentage of the investor's portfolio exposed to the price action of that one stock. (Investopedia) 🎲 If trading stocks there are other tools available that are not accessible in trading currencies or other instruments - things like EBITDA or P&L sheets to give further confirmation of continuation in the trend. ISSUES As many new traders don't yet understand the losses are part and parcel of trading, seeing your account in red plays on the human emotions (we have all been there) and this makes us do crazy things - doubling down on trades, adding more money to avoid margin calls, buying into a losing trade again and again. I wrote an idea recently on how the mindset is represented on a chart.(click for post) Simplicity You can use simple price action to spot key levels - over the years one thing I have found is levels such as Order Blocks and imbalances. Plenty of info online for this - no need to go into here, save for another post, Then when combined with regression channels you can start to paint "expected" levels of interest. Just to show an example I have added EMA, Bollinger, Hand drawn regression and an imbalance level. 🔢 Elliott Wave Theory 🔠 Another awesome tool for finding directional bias - If combined with other techniques, indicators and tools, this can be mighty powerful as a whole. A simple explanation of Elliott wave from another previous post (click for post) - In Summary - you need a belief and a reason that you assume the stock is going higher. It does not matter if it's SPX, Bitcoin or Apple. Secondary you need a directional bias confirmation such as a 200 EMA. I would say to include an envelope (channel) of some description, Something to help you confirm the trend (Elliott) for example. And then a trigger, this could be a candlestick formation, an RSI or MACD overbought/sold signal. Something that suits you and your style. I hope this helps. Be great to get other ideas, comments or strategies from others below! Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
202
Long first and then short.Simple Order block and imbalance tests. Come back for liquidity before the real move down. Not much more than that to report at the end of the week. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Bitcoin - BTC (Leveraged Funds) Looking deeper at the Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers' last declaration of position. Here's the LF's current situation - painted on a weekly chart & showing how the dip correlates with the price moves. Are we institutionalized yet? Be interesting to get comments and thoughts on this aspect. Do the big boys already have control & influence or is the market still in Game mode???? Just thought this aspect would be interesting to share! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
Institutional BitcoinAs a Venture Capital investor, we often get pitched crypto projects. On a personal note my first Bitcoin investment was in 2011. What I am starting to see now from both an investor & trader's perspective is the institutional money is gearing up to align Bitcoin with its "investment Instrument" criteria. As of last year, we saw Asset manager positions being added under 1,000 BTC per week on average between 500 & 700 from around the week and date of the 22nd of September. Reaching a buy climax in November. This year from the 5th of Jan through to the 26th of Jan saw moves in and out being sporadic and some stability coming in from the start of February. However, to counter this what is interesting is that the Leveraged Funds were a little more active than they were towards the end of last year. 3.5k positions on average weekly being bought in the first 4 weeks and only 2.5k average in the last 4 weeks. As for short positions held and traded - Leveraged funds were selling 9.1k Jan 5th, 9.6k Jan 12th, 9.1k Jan 19th and a dip down to selling only 8k at the end of Jan. In layman terms - this means the Institutional buyers have open positions around $38,000, then $36,000 being the average price of long positions and a further dip to around $26,700 area for best value acquisitions. This last week's data shows Asset Managers opened another 600 short positions and only 300 long, whilst Leveraged Funds opened 7,600 shorts and only 2,600 longs. This makes sense as 68% of current retail trades are open Bitcoin Long. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
Trading can be lonely... What do you think...???Although not exactly education - I thought it would be different to ask rather than just post. As a trader of 21 years, I have gone through various ups and downs. Emotions, stress, pain and success. I thought it would be interesting to ask the question, it doesn't matter if you have traded 40 years, started due to Covid or been learning. The only competition in trading is with yourself! (and of course your emotions) With global lockdowns, it's possible trading has been even more singular than usual. So I am asking if you want to share your stories, what you like & dislike about trading. Strategies, mentors, tips you might have learned. Even why and when you started! Why do you trade? What do you want from trading? are you getting it? what's missing? what's working? Hope you are all having a good weekend! Post comments/stories below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
142
short term long to short US strength could be the LPSY of the AUD - this means we could get a high to the BC, some rangebound moves and then the drop to around 74000 level. in terms of Elliott, we are either in the 3-4 down or if we get a new high here it will be a fake-out and then down. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Near Term buy Supporting the previous post of a DXY move down. I would like to see EU make some new highs up towards the next major zone (in blue). COT data suggest we are currently favouring a long position from both asset managers and leveraged funds. with a 96% bias on the asset managers. The Leverage funds have slowed down the selling of the Euro from mid-Jan. So again, further support of a Bullish move coming. Regression and Stochastic also stack up to favour this move over the next month. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
DXY short term short - major swing longStill working on the premise of a weaker Dollar for another couple of weeks. However, I don't think the DXY drop will be as severe as some of the publications on-line are suggesting. From what I have read the general consensus seems to a "pick me" year should we tackle the Covid-19 situation. However, that play is too obvious. The top earners accelerate their wealth whilst there's blood in the streets as Baron De Rothschild put it. Ultimately the SPX is so hyperextended it needs a breather if nothing else. But with the Monthly stochastic looking for a bigger rise in DXY, it's likely to drive gold down and SPX along with it. Keep an eye on key levels marked on the DXY chart. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXYShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
NZDCHF downAs per the last post on NZDJPY - I think the move down on NZDCHF is coming a little sooner. Both suggest a shift in the NZD as the driving factor for the bigger move. looking at the monthly we are closer to the regression top. The weekly is already above Regression. And all major timeframes (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) are Stochastic overbought positions. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures