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Do you suffer from (Retail Sentiment)What is retail sentiment? Have you ever noticed on your broker site that it has a statement along the lines of "70%+ of retail traders lose money"??? This is directly related to retail sentiment - in short, institutional money make their money on others losing money in the online marketplace. Every forex trader will always have an opinion about the market. “It’s a bear market, everything is going to hell!” “Things are looking bright. I’m pretty bullish on the markets right now.” Regardless of the technical analysis or the news that comes out, traders often get it wrong. There's some simple logic to this, If you look into COT reports (Commitment of Traders) 🍪 see the last COT post if you're not familiar with COT. Well in addition to COT there is also a tool called sentiment - this info shows what traders are doing on global broker platforms such as IG index. In this current condition and at this precise time it has a mixed bag of; SPX 47% of retail are long - now you would assume with a long stock market it would correlate to a weaker DXY situation, yet retail are also 57% to the short side on EURUSD. Which makes very little sense. Now assume this is only a small minority on one platform like IG index. Well - with another look, you will see retail are currently; Long - USDJPY 67% (Long DXY) Short AUDUSD 63% (also long DXY) However, 76% long USDCAD - and then long Gold 83%. Do all the numbers match up? Knowing 70% or more of retail traders lose money - what would you say? Unfortunately, since the forex market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn’t have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured, but again this is where COT can be used in parallel to the sentiment. This might be 👽 to you right now. But it's a very powerful tool. On the COT side, you can see into the volume traded and will notice if brokers are net-long, institutional investors are often net-short. Buyers need sellers. It's as simple as that. IG sentiment can be found here - www.dailyfx.com Hope this helps someone. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Don't Be Fooled By BEARISH GOLDSome interesting info on Gold. Reading a couple of articles on Gold. I feel the general consensus is Death to Dollar & Strength on Gold. I feel the Global pandemic has shifted the normal correlation across the entire market and possibly every instrument. If you look at the spike in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, dealing gold a series of setbacks. This is far from over... Coupled with the geopolitical risk component that has held up gold for decades has almost vanished too, with the shiny metal falling instead of rising from a recent flare-up in Middle East tensions. Things are not what they seem. From a technical standpoint only; Main swing from the 2016 low has made a 1.618 spike and pulled back to the 100% Level (1) before shooting up to the 2.618. Secondly - the 1.618 level on the smaller swing move is around the $1,655 level. We could see this level. Step up to the monthly level and we can see an extended Regression channel - touch the outer channel. Supported by monthly Stochastic pointing down. This shows the levels of trapped traders - currently in Long positions - If you look left, we could see a repeat of this last spike down. Xau (Gold) Strength is also falling still and has room even to the 50% level as per the strength indicator. Drop down to the daily & we can see the price has broken the X-Trend structure to the Bearish side. As well as the XAU strength being less than the DXY in the short term. So in the short term, we could expect some more moves to the downside. A potential push up to the trend around 1,850 could be the current roof until the move down completes. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
The (COT) - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS Mystery RevealedThis is NOT an in-depth explanation or a way to trade, this is just highlighting some basics from a question I get a lot, you might see some traders talking about COT data. You may even see it in some posts. There's no magic to it, all you need to know is what exactly it is. Of course, if you can use it within your edge to understand some bias by the bigger operators. What is COT Data? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) publishes the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports to help the public understand market dynamics. Specifically, the COT reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for futures and options on futures markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. The COT reports are based on position data supplied by reporting firms (FCMs, clearing members, foreign brokers and exchanges). While the position data is supplied by reporting firms, the actual trader category or classification is based on the predominant business purpose self-reported by traders on the CFTC Form 401 and is subject to review by CFTC staff for reasonableness.2 CFTC staff does not know specific reasons for traders’ positions and hence this information does not factor in determining trader classifications. In practice, this means, for example, that the position data for a trader classified in the “producer/merchant/processor/user” category for a particular commodity will include all of its positions in that commodity, regardless of whether the position is for hedging or speculation. Note that traders are able to report business purpose by commodity and, therefore, can have different classifications in the COT reports for different commodities. For one of the reports, Traders in Financial Futures, traders are classified in the same category for all commodities. You can read more info and get the actual data from the CFTC site itself. www.cftc.gov Methodology The weekly report details trader positions in most of the futures contract markets in the United States. Data for the report is required by the CFTC from traders in markets that have 20 or more traders holding positions large enough to meet the reporting level established by the CFTC for each of those markets.1 These data are gathered from schedules electronically submitted each week to the CFTC by market participants listing their position in any market for which they meet the reporting criteria. The report provides a breakdown of aggregate positions held by three different types of traders: “commercial traders,” “non-commercial traders” and “nonreportable.” “Commercial traders” are sometimes called “hedgers”, “non-commercial traders” are sometimes known as “large speculators,” and the “nonreportable” group is sometimes called “small speculators.” As one would expect, the largest positions are held by commercial traders that actually provide a commodity or instrument to the market or have bought a contract to take delivery of it. Thus, as a general rule, more than half the open interest in most of these markets is held by commercial traders. There is also participation in these markets by speculators that are not able to deliver on the contract or that have no need for the underlying commodity or instrument. They are buying or selling only to speculate that they will exit their position at a profit, and plan to close their long or short position before the contract becomes due. In most of these markets the majority of the open interest in these "speculator" positions are held by traders whose positions are large enough to meet reporting requirements. *** Reference from Wikipedia*** When combining with other analysis - you can use it to obtain bias or simple confluence with your existing ideas. For example, here's the chart plotted on a weekly timeframe using Elliott wave theory - Plotted usign another piece of software called "Advanced Get" If you combine this with the data from the CFTC website - you will see that the professional operators have been reducing long positions and gaining albeit staggered short positions on the move down. This showing the overall trend move - If you drill down further and look at the difference in short positions between the 19th of Jan and the following week (26th) on a daily chart you will see a rally. (go check it for yourself) A useful tool As I said at the start of the post, it's not the master strategy. It's simply another tool - I just wanted to share some info with the community on what it is and how it can be used. If used correctly - it can prove useful. Have a great week, feel free to pop questions below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
EURJPY - short conceptThe third test of 3 using different pairs. GBP, Euro and US Dollar. Not a trade to copy. Just testing live hence the posts. Have a good weekend. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
USDCAD 4th leg up and 5th leg downPlaying with some ideas, not a trade to copy - testing key levels as part of a bigger picture. Hence up to then drop down. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
GBPJPY - Short IDEAIdeal situation - Sunday open with a Gap up. Or Gap down and fill to the upside. Looking for an entry around this level + a few pips above. Testing some key levels. FYI 100% - this is NOT a trade idea for following, just testing behind the scenes. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
The Secret of Successful FEAR INDICATORSThe truth is - Indicators are only what you make them. 9 out of 10 indicators lag. The rest are used by so many people that it creates a type of unconscious bias. And above all else can clog up your chart as above! That's not to say indicators are pointless - far from it, it's more about creating a bias and using indicators or chart patterns as a confirmation instead of guidence in and out of trades. Especially in the COVID era, the markets are not behaving in any form of regular form. In the last 12 months, we have had the virus to deal with, we have had one of the craziest transitions of Presidents, In the UK - Well, Brexit. It doesn't get much crazier than this. Unconscious biases , also known as implicit biases, are the underlying attitudes and stereotypes that people unconsciously attribute to another person or group of people that affect how they understand and engage with a person or group. in trading terms, this is how indicators and groups of people that use specific indicators. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet when it comes to strategies and indicators. You will find tools that work in some market conditions, and not so well in other circumstances. A lot of information you can get from an indicator is actually in the chart. *as a pure example you can spot things like Imbalances from candles prior to current price action. as per the example. As an institutional investor, it's easy to understand the fear and the bias of retail traders. You only need to look at sentiment from companies like Oanda and IG index - you often find as trends rally 60% of retail positions are Bearish. The reason for this is 75% of retail trading is based on indicators and strategies like breakouts, trend line touches, and moving average crossovers. Measured using Fibonacci levels. Which then makes it easy for the experienced operators to see order blocks and go hunting for stop losses. If you look at simple indicators like RSI - A lot of what it shows can be visualised in the chart itself. Now I don't want to be fully negative to indicators - it's just understanding their value and not fearing the herd. It's not only indicators - patterns can either be complex and you need a mathimatical degree to pin them down to perfection (joke) and they can sometimes be somewhat subjective. Starting points, anchors, measurements etc. Fibonacci - an amazing tool with countless indicators using it in some way shape or form. But a lot of what makes it so accurate is the psychology underpinning the market moves. When you add fibs to charts, or measure using other tools and patterns or indicators - they create the levels based on entries and exits of many people at the same levels. I posted an idea recently on the market mindset (click image for full link)- The idea is that emotions can control the ups and downs of moves based on perfect entries, terrible entries, ideal exits are simple trades you wished you never took, ones that now look obvious looking back. So in short - tools cab be useful. But you should not need to be dependant on them. Especially with market conditions the way they are currently. To summarise - Once you have your bias you shouldn't rely on indicators nor the group chat to execute your trade plan. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
AUDUSD - Update DailyThis trade has been playing by the rule book 100% of the move. Each structural schematic, Elliott wave - back up and down the Regression channels and so on. Expectations have been met yet again, see the Order Block image (Green ticks, Red crosses) from the previous post. AUD has just come back to collect its liquidity pool and trapping some traders long. Supported by last week's COT data whereby Leveraged funds and Asset Managers have eased a little off the long sentiment and added only a small amount to the short positions. As per Fibonaccit levels - the 3 move up tagged the 1.618, through it and back as support before extended exactly to the 2.618 level. We are now expecting the completion of the Wyckoff distribution and down to tag the golden target level. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Market moves and it's PsychologyThere's a great image available if you just search in Google - look for "The Wall Street Cheat Sheet" - Markets move in cycles, which is built on human emotions. There's plenty of research available on this. If you look into anything like Elliott wave theory, Gann fans & boxes, Wyckoff or simply Fibonacci, you will find (in the end) it's all based on the psychology of human behaviour. Driven by greed, fear, stress and euphoria. Understanding this will help with the very fundamentals of trading. With proper risk management applied, traders can profit from the market with a shoddy Hit rate. Providing their edge is accompanied by good risk management. How often have you been in a losing trade & moved the stop loss? Added to the position? Or in a winning trade, bailed and seen the price move another 10, 20 or even 100 pips in your direction??? Below is a set of images breaking down the market moves in simple terms. For clarity ***This is NOT an in-depth breakdown of strategy, it's not the correct application of Elliott, nor Wyckoff. It's a simple post to get you, the trader thinking beyond just the trade ***. This image above shows the emotions as per the Wall Street cheat sheet. (Go google) Apply some logic to the chart - Look under the hood. Here you will see a basic Elliott wave structure playing itself out. This can then be broken into smaller pieces, like this below; It's almost like going from a Telescopic view down to a magnifying glass. You can see the price move up & consolidate, price move up and consolidate. This is all about timing. Trying to breathe with the market, or at least understand a little of it's cycle. Same applies on the way down. Again, there's a lot of information available on the Bear moves over the Bull moves and how they have different characteristics. But not for this post. Now let's look inside the top - the consolidation of the peak. Think of as simply as - some people have made enough profits from the move up & are selling their positions in vast quantities. There is some great content available on Wyckoff and the theory of composite man. But even at a simple level the basics can be explained as follows; 1) Buyers climax - Profit targets hit. 2) Automatic reaction (lots of selling at the same time) 3) A move to the upside to fool people into going long & collect liquidity at a better price for a move down. 4) Range bound moves - market manipulation (collecting positions ready for the short) 5) weakness - a first test to see the response of the market - also to push back long collecting stops of the eager beavers shorting. After this there are a couple of concepts - but you get the idea by now. You will see this type of structure if you zoom in a timeframe or two. Inside of the structure you will see the list above and how it relates on a chart. Like I said, this is not an in-depth strategy or breakdown of Elliott or Wyckoff. It's just putting the pieces together and to show how powerful tools can be to understand the market cycles. Obviously there's much, much more to understand before you jump into a trade using either Elliott or Wyckoff. But I hope this helps. Please feel free to send questions & like the post below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
37
Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial BasicsGann fans are a form of technical analysis based on the idea that the market is geometric and cyclical in nature. A Gann fan consists of a series of lines called Gann angles. These angles are superimposed over a price chart to show potential support and resistance levels. 🌀 The Gann Fan was developed by W.D. Gann. 🌀The Gann Fan is a series of angled lines. The user selects the starting point and the lines extend out into the future. 🌀Gann believed the 45-degree angle to be most important, but the Gann Fan also draws angles at 82.5, 75, 71.25, 63.75, 26.25, 18.75, 15, and 7.5 degrees. 🌀The Fan is started at a low or high point. The resulting lines show areas of potential future support and resistance. The Difference Between a Gann Fan and Trendlines The Gann Fan is a series of lines drawn at specific angles. The 45-degree line should extend out 45-degrees from the starting point. A hand-drawn trendline connects a swing low to a swing low, or a swing high to swing high, and then extends out the right. The trendline is matched to recent price action and is not drawn at a specific angle. Step By Step - Application; Gann is a popular tool & has many resources available online - This breakdown was just a quick look into how to apply them. Please feel free to send questions below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
151
Short and Long moves playing out EURUSDAs this pair is currently in an overall uptrend it's only now nearing its 4th wave completion of a weekly Elliott wave. Supporting this aspect of the move, there's a 5th wave extension measured with Fibonacci levels, just under a daily imbalance zone (further magnetic pull to the downside. You can see the basics of the Elliott move - I have highlighted it using Midpoints of the price to make it clearer to view. In addition to this the DXY which is counter to the EU - has a weekly bias to the Bullish side. And of course, the opposite then applies to the stochastic on the EU itself. The above also shows the Golden zone for the major Fib pullback between 50 & 61.8%. In terms of momentum, we have a download of pressure shown on the Oscillator. Our Quadratics Indicator also shows a move from above the Mean level coming below. There is also a Demand zone at the same daily 5th extension shown in red here; We can see the closest pull being a daily Imbalance With this being said - the overall Bias is Bullish, but we would like to see the drop to complete the pattern before the next major rally. Have a great weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Old School still cool - Short AUD/USDI've had many DM's about our indicators and methods after posting one of our last posts on Bitcoin, so wanted to post another with a simple breakdown of the analysis method. We usually start off with a weekly or/and daily view of the Elliott structures. Once we have a feel for the overall direction, I move into looking for key levels. This can be done at areas based on the Elliott structure, you will notice Fibonacci levels, areas of imbalance or larger order blocks. These are also recognized in various shapes and forms as supply/demand or/and support resistance. Each technique is a little different but the underlying concepts are the same, They are like magnets to price action. For those, not familiar with Ralph Nelson Elliott's work - he was one of the great pioneers of the stock market. Developing the Elliott wave principle used to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. In this particular pair AUD/USD at this point in time it looks like the overall condition of the trend is up Looking at the Elliott and working on the theory of a 3-4 move down on the weekly timeframe - I notice the lower channel level is around 0.7450 level. This matches the Software we use called "advanced get" for spotting Elliott waves quickly. And it's key level of around 0.7450. Now an area of interest and the market looks like it needs a breather. So a short term down move makes a lot of sense. To justify this stance further we have a stochastic false bar indicator showing overbought and oversold conditions - a standard stochastic will work here also. But if we observe the weekly timeframe, it's clear to see a move from above to below only now leaving the overbought area. Zooming into the daily timeframe - we can see an area of consolidation, this area fits the expected level for a 3 extension wave completion in terms of Elliott wave theory and this is shown by the use of an average price based on the Re-Accumulation area. We mark the 50% level with an orange line and move to the next view. The next part of the analysis looks at another indicator that combined an ATR to show the momentum of pips traded as the price moves towards the levels of interest for us. This highlights a move to the downside as we are expecting, backed up by the wave up move levels coming back to the mean level. The last piece of the analysis is done by combining another stock market pioneer's technique, known as the Wyckoff Schematic. Richard Wyckoff analyzed the market operators and their operations and determined where risk and reward were optimal for trading entries. With all of the bias pointing towards a Bear move, we are now looking at several additional entries for a short. We entered the first short at 0.77510 level yesterday (26th of Jan) and will be looking for scale in at the levels of weakness as price leaves the range. Please feel free to comment and like (much appreciated) and any questions - please just reach out. Hope this helps. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
Indicators Vs Price action - or both?Many new traders face a magnitude of problems early in their trading journey. One of the biggest dilemmas is caused by the vast amount of indicators available. There are the free basic indicators like RSI, MACD, Bolli Bands and the list goes on. Then you have custom indicators - Paid for, free trails - each offering their own edge. The issue is not what they can or can't do - it's more bout how they are used, even why they are used. I put together the tutorial mostly to show what each of the basic & some custom indicators show on the same chart - at the same time. The idea was to highlight what they can spot and compare it side by side with price action. Also using still simple methods but not automatically drawn indicators such as Elliott and Wyckoff Schematics. Over the last 20 years, I have collected around 14Gb's worth of PDF's, MT4 indicators, expert advisors, BOTS n all sorts. I play with them and revert back to the old faithful. PRICE Take a look at this first chart. A simple RSI indicator that can help identify a shift in the trend. This is not a strategy - it's a simple "spot the move" This type of basic understanding of what a lagging indicator is telling you can actually be beneficial. But not necessary. The next chart shows a simple MACD & this time it can help identify the major (3) move of an Elliott wave move. From here - take a look at simple Bollinger Bands. What you will notice above, is that the Mean of the bands matches the Wyckoff Average price. Obviously oscillating a little as the settings are off the shelf. But you get the point. If we shift to a Parabolic SAR - you can see within the Wyckoff Range of Distribution, the SAR is narrowing almost making a type of sideways Christmas tree. Below we have a basic Stochastic - this where I have the yellow line shows newfound weakness in the trend. Elliott Theory Move away from indicators and you can see an Elliott wave which is actually a 5 wave move within the 2-3 wave move on a bigger timeframe. This move can be measured and sometimes forecasted by using simple Fibonacci tools - you will see from this chart below, the move was straight to the 50-618 range; sometimes referred to as the "Golden Zone" . **Measure taken from the swing X to 1 of the impulsive move.** What goes up, must come down. This move was then followed by a simple A,B,C formation in accordance with the Elliott Theory. Jump forward a little and using Fibonacci again. What you can see here, is that the Fibs from X - 5 (Major move) is now heading down to the 61.8% level. Other Tools Heiken Ashi - is another popular tool. Although it's replacing regular candles, bars or lines it basically takes an average and cuts out the noise. (this is not to educate as to how each indicator works) more highlighting how they can be used in simple terms. What you will notice in the chart above - Is again, the level of respect the Average Price receives within the range. Without the noise. Custom Indicators As I mentioned above, there are thousands of indicators that come in all shapes, sizes and colors. As well as price ranges from free to thousands of dollars a month. Here's an example of how a custom indicator can be built to help traders identify key levels or potential shifts in the market. This indicator looks for the Mean Reversion as well as highlights a curved regression. As price is always trying to move towards its average you can calculate levels of potential reversals based on a load of tools including zones, pivots, or moving avergae touches for example. Again too many to list. This next indicator shows two key areas of interest. Imbalance candles and Order Block levels. There are methods to paint supply and demand zones. These types of levels can be spotted (with experience) on naked price charts. Another tool could be used to measure the strength of a currency or stock. For this, we have a simple Strength index calculation. Showing the shift of power from AUD to USD during the range phase. Conclusion Regardless of the tools and indicators, bots n algo's - Price is still king of the market and all else is designed to measure it. As I said, this post is not to teach anyone how to select or use an indicator - but to highlight how some of these things fit into painting or at least helping to paint a path that price will travel. I hope this helps - please feel free to comment and question below. Safe Trading! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Bitcoin Re-AccumulationI have been asked about Bitcoin a fair amount in recent weeks. My first investment in Bitcoin was around $11, If I am honest I wish I had held on to them (not worth thinking about) But back then the Technology was interesting and the investment was worth a shot. Obviously, it paid off and an early exit was regretted. In 2017 our company started investing in Blockchain Technologies for the financial sector - so we are a believer in the underlying tech in general. After the first hype - we felt that the crypto market (different to the blockchain) as in, coins with no real driver or purpose were popping up with the sole intention of a big ICO and exit stage left. The crash actually helped the market overall by shaking out the rubbish (a lot of it) and paved the way for more institutional focus. In doing this, the transition from the cool kids to the professional investors is where we are currently at. As a trader of stocks for 20 something years now, I have been fortunate enough to also be involved in direct company investments and from seeing both sides, you can paint a clear picture. Re-Accumulation takes place after early adoptors take profits this causing a knee-jerk reaction and the price to drop down a fair percentage without easing up. I read that after the $40,000 high the drop wiped $170Bn off Bitcoin's value in 24 hours. So I would class this as the "Reaction". You then will see a market manipulation take place, designed to fool traders into a belief the drop was the pullback and long it will continue. Before another fair size drop (caused by decent selling - profit-making of coins only acquired days ago on the first drop price). Once a quick buck is made, the professional trader will push volume in the other direction lower than the low of the first reaction. Think about it logically for a second, at this stage you have new players new to trading, new to tech. Jumping on the bandwagon trying to make a fast retirment pot. If the price creates a lower low, retail traders are shown "this is a down-trend" maybe it was a bubble - Again fear setting in. Once the Price has come back below *Fair market value - the accumulation will continue until enough coins have been accumulated and the real rise comes. Sending the price up and above the last highs and into new territory. Here's a couple of screens in mostly in smaller timeframes to show examples of what is going on. This above shows the concept mentioned of manipulation after the buying climax. These are some potential scenarios based on the shakeout logic. Fair Market value levels. Accumulation indicator widening. Trend momentum in the smaller timeframe & key levels. This shows the contractions of the trend near the top - creating a range now for Accumulation. Volume movement slowing toward the top and a steady drop down to the value area lows. Not to scare people too much, whilst collecting coins. ATR Drop confirming volume decreasing slowly in the Accumulation. I hope this helps - please feel free to ask questions, comment, and like below. Have a great weekend. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
Crypto Correlation - Etherium - BitcoinI posted an idea yesterday on the Accumulation phase of Bitcoin currently. I have been asked by several people in the post and in DM's about Etherium, Litecoin and other alt coins. Thought it be easier to make a post. As professional traders enter the crypto market - it's clear to see a shift in the behavior of Bitcoin and its merry men. If you zoom out and look at the daily charts or bigger, it's clear to see the dips and peaks at the same times - meaning BTC is a good indication of the rest of the coins... Why? - Bitcoin is mainly a store of value, it's making entry into other alt coins easier - it's more trusted (i would like to say it's more understood, unfortunately not the case). You have several types of crypto players: - Early adopters (usually tech guys n Gals) who believe in the concept and want to change conventional thinking. - Consultants (usaully ex KPMG, PWC) will call themselves experts, charge the early adopters thousands in fees for their business acumen & adding no real value. - un-sophisticated investors; wanting to invest in the next facebook. - Friends of early adaptors who now see $$$ signs. - Tech investors who see more than a trade setup. - Savvy investors who want control (these guys take it to "investment instrument level" - Then the late adapters - who want to play, make a few dollars, and hope to ride the bull wave to the moon. - Everyone else. The issue is the more institutional traction, the less likely of a full out bull run - investors know how to play the game to sucker the other parties into making more money for themselves in the process. So we will now start to see behavior more like Gold, Oil, FX - instead of the tech boom bull runs. As traders, not investors - you need to adapt. If you are not looking for a drawdown, you need to buy the dips. Whereas an investor would pile in the money and come back in 5 years. As far as Etherium, Bitcoin or alt coins. Think of it like this. Bitcoin is kind of what the USD is to currency and commodities. An easier way of putting it is "Bitcoin is the windows of the operating system space" - Ethereum is like Linux - it can be used for projects, not everyone understands it or wants to. It has its place and that has value in its own right. Feel free to comment below. Enjoy the rest of the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FOREXCOM:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
3
BITCOIN - BTC, Crypto - Short to Long (fair Value level)I don't often trade crypto as spot, but as an investment company, we have crypto holdings. Bitcoin has entered the world of investments at a professional level & in doing so, the moon is a likely scenario as they say. But to do that on a professional level, much like any other chart, a fair value needs to be obtained for the bigger players to keep their interest. With that being said - a current fair value is around $26,500 so we could expect a drop to this region before it shoots back to its $40k + high. and possibly $50, 75 or even 100k being its next slowdown. In investing terms - you will have the HODLERS, you will have the lucky, you now have the inexperienced and the pro's coming at the same pace. The Pro's and the inexperienced where probably the ones who took out the $170Bn in market value in 24 hours. The guys who jumped in at 35k+ plus saw no way of it slowing, and that's where the drop set in. If we now compare to DXY, Gold and SPx as it's aligned to all of these areas in some ways. The DXY is expected to rise, then drop again to create a weekly Elliott 5th wave. COT data supports this. The issue is - that retail sentiment is short things like Euro currently pushing DXY strength, which is a catalyst for BTC drops. This is also supported by stochastics on higher timeframes showing overbought positions and a drop on the ATR volume as a whole. Games will be played and money will be made. But you need to be careful buying at the wrong price. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
Gold (XAU) Short to LongLooking at DXY, SPX and even Bitcoin - the Dollar needs a move up. Stochastic, Elliott and various other tools all say the same thing. This move will come with Dollar strength once Biden is fully integrated. Then Dollar will drop pushing this up (we might even see a new high) and then what also makes sense is for the SPX to drop a fair way and it might drag gold back down before it becomes the safe haven again. Stocks will get converted to Gold and then we could see a bigger Rally as a whole. Overall sentiment is Long - but I expect a short to the order-block, a rise as the dollar dips back before a major move based on SPX and not DXY pushing Gold Long for some time. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
SPX IDEA - Short to Long before the BIG SHORTWhen trading the US market - we need to consider several factors, past performance, key events, more recently Covid and the change of the US President. All of which have a significant influence on the market and the world. Professional investors are looking closely for signs of a bubble. If you look at the timings and go back to our post a few weeks ago - long SPx (below) at the reversal level. You can see we are now in the zone mentioned. Whilst looking at DXY - what looks like a likely scenario is a rise of DXY dropping SPx, then a rise drop of DXY pushing SPx back up to create a new high (likely) before giving a full drop causing the bubble to break. Now at the same time - think logic, Biden moves into office, the drop is fear & uncertainty. within weeks it's pushing all time highs and the world is excited. Which is the best time for the sharks to attack. When the world is high fiving and thinking the Bull run will go on forever. Worth thinking about and if you look at Elliott waves, Fibonacci extensions, Order Blocks. You will notice a drop, a rise, and then a bigger drop makes sense for more than one reason. We will see. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
Short Term ShortI have been trading AUDUSD up and down throughout this Wyckoff setup, it's the first Wyckoff pattern I have worked with for several years. After moving to MEan Reversion, Elliott structures and COT data. Where I feel Wyckoff can really help, is all around the concept of the composite man theory. When market conditions are such, that retail are loaded up on net long or net short positions. You will find that COT data showing the hedge funds and strong hand operators are moving positions in the other direction. When the climax is reached you can walk through the trade plan seeing key levels being touched and an instant reaction. I have dropped a timeframe for this post to show the significance of the levels (sorry they are in pink) purely to highlight. I have also left on the OScialltors showing the false bar stochastic situation, the bottom swing moves, Quadratics show the momentum bullish and bearish with a zero line cross on accumulation/distribution. Again purely for this post, I have included the distribution/accumulation oscillator showing the trend buys and sells changing hands and reversing. I hope you find it interesting and please feel free to like and comment below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
EURUSD - Wyckoff schematic formingAs per the last Wyckoff posts on NZDUSD - the software we use to plot the Elliott waves show a drop from the top of leg 3 down to a 4 on the weekly timeframe. This is further supported by the level of exhaustion seen on DXY. It now needs to breathe, looking at the structural setup of the Wyckoff schematics we can see that we have had the PSY followed by the BC which also happened within a daily order block level. Usually, at highs and lows (exits from zones) we also expect to see a drop or rise from the zone and a retest up to the level. This is where EURUSD is currently in the daily structure. Overall I am looking for the price to pop up a little and test the Imbalance and order blocks on lower TF's - that tags the OB level on the daily which is the retest. Then a drop down to give DXY strength and complete leg 4 of the EU weekly Elliott pattern. This week COT data shows leveraged funds have added 3,500+ shorts to their Euro positions - although Long overall, it supports a drop to 4 and up to 5 in coming weeks. Oanda sentiment has a 61.8% net long Euro & as we all know 70%+ of retail traders lose money. I have added our swing indicator, Quadratics and Stochastic falsebar - just to show the current situation on the Oscillators. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
Elliott -Wyckoff Breakdown (2) of (2)Although it's a crazy time with the whole world in Pandemic mode due to Covid - you can still see the Wyckoff theory at work, by looking at these principles near or in key levels you can see the advantage of waiting to join smart money moves. As a mentor, I often get emails and messages asking should I long this or short that. And usually, as soon as you see the chart, it's obvious that the retail game is being played. And we wonder why over 70% of retail traders lose money. Looking for confluence and then trading with confidence into or from key zones makes more sense than trading support and resistance levels which have been open to a subjective view. Chat rooms, trade ideas, signals, indicators - all move the trader away from the real structural significance. Again like Elliott - there are plenty of educational videos, PDFs, and books on Wyckoff and his theory. Some good books include "How I trade and invest in stocks and bonds" by Richard D Wyckoff and another good Wyckoff book is "The Wyckoff methodology in-depth" by Ruben Villahermosa Chaves. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
Elliott - Wyckoff Breakdown (1) of (2)After spending now 21 years trading, It's clear to see that a lot of the old ways work just as well as when I was first introduced to trading. There's a reason names like Wyckoff & Elliott are still popular terminology in the trading communities. Even Fibonacci now centuries old. I wanted to share a quick top-down breakdown of the market setup using simple but effective tools. Starting off - I have software called Advanced Get - this paints the Elliott wave patterns on the chart. There are plenty of tutorials available on the exact workings of Elliott wave theory. This is not the point here, it's just to illustrate the concept of how to use them in confluence. There are also some great books out there that go into a lot of detail such as Profits in the stock market and How to Identify High-Profit Elliott Wave trades in Real Time. Once you have identified the wave levels (even the current wave) you can measure using Fibonacci retracements & extension tools to get areas of interest as I like to call them. (You often find these to also fall into categories of supply/demand and order block levels, imbalance. So they act like a magnet pulling the price. Bear in mind the two charts above are monthly and weekly. After identifying major trends on the monthly and stepping down to a weekly view - you can now focus on finding these key levels before dropping to the daily. At this point - personally, I look at how close the move is to the weekly levels and then look at COT along with sentiment data to get a feel for the "great professional" - strong hands and compare it to the weak hands, being retail sentiment. It is no secret that on most broker platforms over 70% (being generous) of retail traders lose money. Smart money is playing the game and throwing the crumbs. What you might see is one of a few likely scenarios' ;- 1) COT data shows more longs than shorts (assume this NZDUSD example) - which means the move to level 3 wave is more probable. 2) Sentiment shows retail thinking the trend is exhausted and already for the drop at the time of writing 62% of IG sentiment is short. other info could show that some net long positions have been closed (1) meaning the drop is coming and the wave 3-4 pullback on the weekly is about to take place. looking at key levels, it's clear to see the (3) high on the weekly is in confluence with a major supply zone. I will post part two of this idea later today. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
SPX - S&P500 ,SP500Things are likely to give confusing messages today, with the addition of Tesla to the market. The overall momentum is Bullish, Tesla will most likely drive up the price further. However, the market needs to pullback to collect liquidity if nothing else. Remember whenever there are buyers, people need to be selling to them. Be patient on any trade entry long or short as we could see some decent spikes between now and early in the New Year. Stochastic on both the daily and weekly are overbought - worth noting. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
1