Maybank possible -11.89% pullback. 10/Nov/23Maybank possible the last "golden opportunity" for gaining 61% ( from 8.00 to 12.88 +/-) by end of 2025 ( before a deep pullback again )
MBB
Get ready for the next BRRRRR!!!- 30y mortgage interest rate breaking a 40yo trend.
- MBB down while being used by big players as collateral.
- DXY breaking a 40yo trend (not in the chart) can cause bond defaults around the world.
- Fed has only started raising rates.
* If MBB keeps going down, might see some marge call and flash crashes in the market.
* If MORTGAGE30 keeps going up, will increase the mortgage default, having 2008 back at it. (DRSFRMACBS)
* If bond defaults start around the globe (Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Egypt, Kenia), DXY will keep going up, making the US exports dump (12% GDP)
+ To avoid foreign bond defaults, Fed can make currency swaps with other central banks, to avoid pumping the DXY.
+ To avoid margin calls and mortgage defaults, Fed can slow down the rate hikes.
+ To avoid the inflation hitting people's pocket, they might re-launch covid stimmies for "food and gas".
BTC - Lower Low in 3DConsolidation continues as 55.4 is the new support below. Support was found at the 4h LBB and currently price is testing the 4h MBB.
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate:
- Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct.
- MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev:
- Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal.
- We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum".
- Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities.
- We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural:
- Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well:
GLHF
- DPT
Housing - Bubble PopIdea for Housing/REITs (VNQ):
- The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs.
- Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop.
- China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals:
www.bloomberg.com
- State firms ordered to curb overseas commodities exposure.
- Fed continues MBS purchasing with QE, despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse.
- Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low:
finance.yahoo.com
- Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB):
news.yahoo.com
- Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market.
- The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets.
- As commodities prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand.
- When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater.
- MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint.
GLHF
- DPT
The MBB in 3D - Featuring the 4 EMANAST esting the 2 Hour UBB after catching the algo on the 5 min 4 EMA @ 10:35. Support off the 5 min MBB
The MBB in 3D - An experimental design Short Covering day as NAS is melting up. Seeing Price Action and patterns in 3D provides depth.
BTC H4 - TRADING IN THE ZONE - AT A GLANCEH4 : As mentioned many times, the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) worked perfectly well, as "THE" leading indicator.
Important to also note that the uptrend support line (on a closing basis) also helped to confirm the ongoing uptrend in place.
In order to "play" the countertrend in a strategic BULL market, you ABSOLUTELY need to monitor very carefully intraday time frames
H1, M15 and even some times M5, which will avoid frustration in missing very short term countertrend exit trades.
Look also very carefully at the candlesticks patterns development and not only one but at least 2 or 3 for confirmation of price action !
And last but not least my favorite : Ichimoku :-)
Have a great and nice weekend.
Take care
All the best.
And "May your long goes up and your short goes down" :-)
BTC - H1/M15 - FAILURE TO BREAKOUT MBB !!!H1 : Nice recovery seen over the last couple of hours.
Facing tough resistance to break (MBB @ 47975) and clouds resistance area too !
Watch carefully the next candle (s) to check if there is enough momentum to upside breakout.
Watch indicators for signals.
M15 : The ascending triangle detected early this morning has been validated by a first breakout, then
pullback towards the triangle resistance line and then upside move again.
Nevertheless, the fact that on H1, BTC missed to move above MBB put this ascending triangle on hold,
waiting confirmation if we will hold above the clouds which is now the new very short term support
coupled also with MBB (currently @ 476159
Technical indicators are pointing to the South again...
CONCLUSION :
Watch very carefully price action on M15 OVER THE COMING PERIODS FOR VALIDATION OR INVALIDATION !!!
BTC - AT A GLANCE - TRADING IN THE ZONE - D1 - H4 - H1D1 : As expected, (Tks to Elon !)..., the Monday's breakout of former high @ 42000 triggered a sharp acceleration move towards a high so far
of 48200, close to the psychological target mentioned of 50'000. (see my previous Heat Map post).
Looking at yesterday's price action, we can see a "school case", perfect "doji" pattern which means indecision and uncertainty !
In addition, coupled with this doji, there is also a bearish divergence on RSI.
Therefore, it looks like, further downside is on the cards !
After this sharp move, the 45000-41000 trading range is very fragile and we can not ruled out to see a mirror effect happening
in the coming session (s) which would push the BTC down back towards the form congestion zone of January 41000-42000.
Screen shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will help to validate or invalidate this expected bearish scenario.
Important to note that on D1, we are still in a strategic uptrend (see the support trend line in green) and therefore the view expressed
here should be seen as a tactical trading approach (countertrend !)
Only a clear breakout of the uptrend line support would switch from bullish to bearish in a strategic mode approach !
Scenario 1 (Bullish) :
Recovery and breakout of the former high of 48200 and then again sharp acceleration towards 51000 and probably higher (Fib projection)
Scenario 2 (Bearish) :
Failure to hold above 45'000 (yesterday's intraday low) would put the focus on the 43'000 area (see H4 and H1 comments below)
H4 : Downtrend in place.
Watch 47'000 on closing period observation; a recovery above that level would, for the time being, neutralise the downside risk.
On the downside first level to look is 45'600. A H4 closing below that level would be the first signal confirming an ongoing bearish
price action targeting the next support previously mentioned on D1 @ 43000
H1 : Downtrend in place
Below all leading indicators !
Watch 44900 as the key pivot point, which is also the top of the clouds support zone and which corroborate the view expressed above on D1
As for H4, only a recovery above 47000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario
US10Y - D1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Double top in progress, coupled with a bearish engulfing pattern (which should be confirmed on a closing basis !)
In addtion technical indicators are showing bearish divergences...
Watch MBB and TS @ 1.0960 as leading indicators for further development.
Indeed, a failure to hold above the 1.1000 area would directly put the focus on 1.0460 (KS) ahead of the trigger level
of the double top @ 0.9960. (also clouds support area !)
A breakout of the latter level would open the door for 0.7960 (double top target)
Warning : Stop and reverse @ 1.29 !
Watch also ongoing price action on W1, currently facing a tough clouds resistance to break !
BTC - H4 -SHOOTING STAR + DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !H4 : Last candle triggered as shooting star coupled with a potential double top in progress.
In addition indicators are also in divergences process
Watch : 36477 (TS), 35300 (MBB) and 35280 (KS)
35300 should be seen as a very important support area in this time frame
Failure to hold above it would open the door for :
S1 :35002
S2 :33885
S3 :32767
H1 : Short term reversal already in progress (doji) followed by a black candle (bearish engulfing) which
has been confirmed by a second black bearish candle which hold above TS.
Watch : 37538 (TS), 37085 (MBB) and 36973 (KS)
Below important congestion zone support between 36045 and 34594 (clouds area and Fib ret
Watch very short term time frame M15 and M15 to check price action and detect early invalidated signal (s)
of the expected intraday short term potential reversal.
BTC - D1 - ON GOING PRICE RECOVERY PRICE ACTION...D1 : Saturday's price action triggered a Doji pattern.
Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle with an intraday low, holding above the former
uptrend (green arrow).
Today's ongoing price action is showing a recovery in progress facing right now the first resistance level
to break and it is, once again TS !
Second obstacle will be MBB (currently @ 34281) and then the D1 downtrend line resistance, currently @ 34600.
Interesting to note that the yesterday'opening coincides with MBB and a daily closing today above that level
would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern... with a closing level, ABOVE MBB and even better if it is above the
downtrend line resistance !!!
H4/H1 : Watch carrefuly in screening, shorter time frames H4 and H1, to monitor closely intraday price action in order to be able
to react accordingly.
BTC - H4 - STILL ABOVE THE CLOUDS...BUT...H4 : Take a few seconds for looking back what happened since the peak reached 3 weeks ago !
Indeed, you can see that the downtrend (falling wedge in progress) is still intact.
1) Several recoveries attempt (upside breakout failures occured; the most important attempt
being the one seen a couple of days ago ;
A) A long white bullish candle
B) A doji top at the peak !
C) A reversal long black candle pushing down again the BTC inside the falling wedge pattern
2) Then sideways price action with, yesterday, a new upside breakout attempts of the downtrend line resistance
which triggered again a Doji and this time, roughly at the level of the donwtrend line resistance !
3) Current level is around the MBB (@ 33748) and below both TS and KS, respectively @ 33895 and 33885
4) Top of the clouds support zone has been tested this morning !
Conclusion :
Scenario bearish : Failure to quickly recover and hold above MBB, KS and TS should trigger further selling pressure
targeting a downside breakout of the clouds with the following targets :
1) 32641
2) 31975
3) 31308
Scenario bullish : Recovery success in breaking the downtrend line resistance opening the door for the following targets :
1) former high @ 34800
2) 35060
3) 35740
4) 36419
Due to high volatility I would strongly suggest to carefully screen shorter time frame , H1 and M15, to detect early signals
which would allow to act accordingly.
Have a nice Sunday :-)
Good luck
Ironman8848
NQ1 - D1 - WATCH CAREFULLY MBB @ 13045D1 : Despite a strong recovery attempt, yesterday's closing price @ 13186, did not confirmed yet that the downside risk is over.
Indeed, the failure to close, at least above 13306, which is the middle of the former long bearish black candle is a first signal
that the ongoing new bear trend is in progress.
Today's price action will also be decisive for further development as we will have triple closing (D1,W1 and M1)
An important leading indicator remains the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) which is currently @ 13045 and as you can see
worked perfectly well as a barometer indicator.
Bearish scenario :
A failure this evening to close above the psychological of 13000 should open the door for lower levels, having in mind
12584, 12271 and 11957 (Fibonacci retracements) as strategic targets.
Interesting to note that the levels previously mentioned coincides also with the clouds support zone !
Bullish scenario :
In order to return in a bullish mode, we need to see this evening, at least a closing above 13306 which would trigger a "piercing line pattern" or much more better a closing above the former high which would make a new high and trigger a "bullish engulfing pattern" calling for
an upside extension.
H4 : Currently traded below :
1) the downtrend resistance line
2) MBB
3) Kijun-Sen
4) Tenkan-Sen
A failure to hold above 12850/12800 would trigger further selling pressure
H1 : Once again clouds acted perfectly well as an important level to break in rejecting around 13400 the recovery attempt
BTC - D1 - NO CHANGE IN MY EXPECTED STRATEGIC BEARISH SCENARIOD1 : 30'000 filled yesterday with an intraday low @ 29150
Today's price action is showing a new recovery attempt with an upside potential pretty limited.
Indeed, TS currently @ 32620 ahead of the 61.% Fib ret @32652 of the last downside move will be the first important resistance area to break.
Current price action should still be seen as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend and not as a trend reversal yet !
As already mentioned, in order to neutralise the existing downside risk, BTC should move above KS an MBB and hold above both (35'000 +)
Once the current upside move will be over, it is likely to see a retest of the 30'000 area, then towards the first strategic target of 27'426 (38.2 % FR)
Triangle target @ 23'590 !!
Have a great trading day :-)
BTC - D1 - ONGOING BEARISH MODE...D1 : Indeed, the failure, yesterday to recover above the former countertrend support trend line
should be seen as a negative factor for those who are still strategically bullish on BTC !
W1 picture is also on a negative ongoing process...
For short term analysis, have a look at :
H4 : 2 failures to upside breakout above the short term support trend line of recovery attempts
Currently below the clouds
H1 : Recovery failures and below the clouds too
As mentioned several times in my previous posts, only a clear move above :
1) 33337
2) 34867
3) 35260
would force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario calling for 30'000 first
ahead of 27426 (which is ONLY the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (3850-42000).
DO NOT FORGET THE TRIANGLE TECHNICAL TARGET @ 23590 WHICH IS STILL ALIVE !!!
Good luck
Have a nice end of the day
BTC - D1 - Kijun-Sen worked so far pertectly wellD1 : As expected and mentioned in my yesterday's post, a recovery took place, triggering an upside move towards an intraday high of 33'869
which roughly filled my first target of 33'915 (Kijun-Sen).
No change in my view, BEARISH STRATEGIC VIEW, and only a move above :
1) Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 33915
2) Tenkan-Sen (TS) @ 34247 (34407 being the 38.2 % Fib ret on H4 - 37874-28800)
3) Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) @ 36060
would neutralise the current downside risk and force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario.
Watch development on H4, still on a corrective move, downtrend and below the clouds !
Watch H1 for entering in a tactical position countertrend in a very, very short term time horizon
Weekly closing tomorrow will give additional clue for next week.
BTC - D1 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 23590 - SELL ON RALLY!D1 : Yesterday's price action , a long black candle with an intraday low @ 28800 ! and a closing price # 30818 confirmed
a clear breakout of the triangle pattern, calling for a technical target @ 23'590...
Nevertheless, after this sharp decline, it is likely to see some technical recovery which is expected to be relatively limited
and which should be seen as a CORRECTIVE move only in a BEARISH trend and not as a trend reversal yet !
Indeed, in order to neutralise the ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover above KS, currently @ 33915, which
is also the middle of yesterday's black candle, ahead of TS @34456 and finally MBB @ 35975; only a move above the latter level
would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for a move, towards first 27426, which is the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement (3850-42000) and then towards the triangle pattern target @ 23590, also daily clouds support area.
I mentionned several times in my previous post the importance of both MBB and TS as leading indicators !
Have a look at W1 price action, which for the time being does not look very encouraging...
TTC - D1 - TRIANGLE BREAKOUT - YES OR NO ?D1 : Yesterday^s closing below both TS and MBB with an intraday low @ 33400, close to my technical target of 33250 mentioned yesterday morning in my previous post.
On going price action is showing a POTENTIAL downside triangle breakout which should be confirmed on closing basis this evening.
A closing outside of the triangle would be the first signal of a trend reversal, calling for lower levels.
(pls see H4 update after 9am, Swiss time) :-)
May your long goes up and your short goes down.
Have a great trading day
All the best
BTC - D1 - POTENTIAL TRIANGLE BREAKOUT IN PROGRESS !!!D1 : Recent price action triggered an intraday move towards a low so far@ 34'800
Currently traded below both Tenkan-Sen (TS) and Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) !
Uptrend triangle support line currently under attack...
Watch closely today's closing for clues
A failure to stay and hold inside the triangle pattern would give a warning
of a potential trend reversal calling for a move towards 33250 (KS) as the
first significant technical target ahead of the psychological 30'000 area !
Interesting to note that the 23.6 % Fib ret is @ 32987 and the 38.2% @ 27403...
BTC - H1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS - MBB under attackH1 : Trigger level of the double top @ 35430. Targe @ 33410
3rd consecutive failure to hold above support trend line
MBB currently under attack a failure to hold above it and above KS @ 36113 which is also the
current intraday uptrend line support would give a bearish signal, calling for lower levels.(with clouds support
zone,slighlty lower, bottom, also coinciding with the double top trigger level !!!
Finally, a move below 35430 would :
1) Activate the double top formation
2) Invalide the recent intraday uptrend in broking the support trend line
