McDonald's MCD - I'm Lovin' Selling, and You Should be tooYou don't see just how highly priced McDonald's still is unless you look at it on the Monthly:
I mean, this is the place that sells faux-food while CPI and PPI are through the roof, and it's still trading almost at its all time high. This is even more ridiculous than the positioning of Apple AAPL:
Apple AAPL - Looks Fine on the Outside, but Tastes Weird
And Tesla TSLA:
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine
On top of that, this is one of the thirty companies that compose the Dow, which is the most bearish of all indexes, having already retested the pre-COVID highs, which SPX and Nasdaq have yet to do.
The bottom line for everyone's least favourite, but most convenient, fast food dumpster fire is that the June --> August price action, was, like Apple, just a gap fill.
And now, it's time to seek new lows. And those lows happen to be, conservatively, in the $245 range.
This is a fat put if you buy puts, but a "my calls expired worthless so at least I can sob about my drawdown on Reddit" scenario for Robinhood's retail fodder.
I can only encourage everyone who is still long on equities to get out this week. I truly believe that we are going to see a bounce that traps bears short but snares bulls long:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
With a looming VIX 72 (hasn't done much since COVID! It's two years! It's due! Be careful!) hanging overhead.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
What lies ahead, after the trap has been executed, will come fast, and viciously, and it will seem as if the world is ending. If you buy when it's high because you are still thinking to yourself that this is the old paradigm, you're going to lose at least one finger, and probably three.
This world is not one where you can use magic to regrow what's lost, you know?
And so what I want to say is that you should protect what you have. If you can't get short, if you can't trade puts, then get cash heavy and reduce your risk.
Ultimately, what's important in life is not money, which when you die you leave behind. It is maintaining your kindness. It is harbouring your virtue.
This isn't moral dogma, unless you make it moral dogma. The path through the storm is to do better in your life. Been neglecting family? Fix it.
Been a bad father? Fix it.
Been a bad boss? Buy the secretary flowers and tell her that she's doing a great job. Make sure you mean it. You aren't such a bad guy. Make sure you mean it. Try your best.
One day, in this lifetime, when the Chinese Communist Party falls, you'll instantly understand what I am referring to.
Don't leave yourself with regrets on that day. That day is too late. You have to figure it out and do well before that day.
It's just like poker, where you have to place your bets before the cards are face up. It doesn't count anymore after the cards are face up.
