Copper Stuck Below Overhead SupplyWe're outlining "Five Bull Market Barometers" that we're using to help answer the question of whether we're in a new bull market. Next up is Copper, which recently completed a multi-year top by breaking through support near 405-410. After a sharp counter-trend rally, prices are now retesting this major resistance level. Copper and Emerging Market stocks have a strong positive correlation, so if Copper is stuck below the overhead supply at 410 then we are likely not in an equity bull market.
Mcxcrude
USOIL -Range BoundUSOIl is stuck in a small range, consolidating below Friday's Value area lows, At the same time we have seen multiple bounce offs the lows over the past week. we will hold 50.50's as the reference for this level.
1. Look to short and trade pullbacks with stops above 50.50 areas.
2. Break out play above 50.50s for targets ( dashed green)
In the time being this continues to be a scalpers market , trading mean reversions for short term play. swing players either holding positions can use the targets , else look to enter in a break outside the range or a strong impulse move.
USOIl- Failure to Break above back to Value zoneOvernight we have failed to sustain the highs in USOIl. and again back to within a larger multi day value zone.
No strong bias on either side for today we will hold the 51.50-30 areas as a key trend decider for the day
1. Bullish on hold above 51.50 for targets ( marked in dashed green )
2. Bearish on hold below for targets ( marked in dashed red )
On a larger TF context it seems we may have just marked a lower high and a failure to hold today could mean we will re visit the recent lows of sub 50s in coming sessions
USOIL - Hitting getting into a short term confluenceUSOIL is getting into the short term confluence area, (marked in red zone) , hold into that can lead to a rotation on the downside to test back the areas of 54.15 and lower. Hold above that the trend changes to positive for a test back to 55.30 areas
CL_F Trade plan- Range bound Play?CL_F has seen a lot of volatility, does it cool off now? well we dont know. But here is the plan.
Looking for a range bound rotation and pullback trades within the support and the resistance zones.
Break outside the areas for potential target zones.marked in red and blue ( red - Short term references and Blue Long term references)
CL_F Trade ideas for TodayExpecting a hold of the 58.7-58.50 areas. for a test back to the target areas marked in dashed lines as a primary scenario.
secondary scenario - Break below that expect to test the downside target areas.
blue dashed lines- ( Long term references)
Red Dashed lines ( Short term references)
#CL_F #crude areas to watch outwe have these two references from larger timeframes in crude today.
1. 58.80- get there and hold below we move lower for test of 57.50, 56.25
2. 60.65 - hold above that we go on to test 63, 64.50 areas.
too many players eager to fade the gap up.. so we go to be careful :)
USOIL INDISDE A DESCENDING CHANNELMARKET ANALYSIS: The pair is now trading inside a descending channel. As of now the current scenario shows that the market tends to reach the channel resistance. So once we reach the resistance and the candle gives us a better confirmation for shorting, We can go for sell trade setup. So lets wait and see what the market does in the coming days. Cheers!
Crude under pressureCrude (22.05.2015) traded lower as per our expectation as mention in our previous article, however it fail to reach to $55.70 mark & bounced back with current week inventory support.
Now crude is trading around $60 mark & as we can see on charts, crude trying to retest the broken trade line of ascending channel. The bounce was supported by volume as well as pattern is not very ideal for recovery. On elliott wave count , crude probably trading under 1st downside wave with probably V wave down now. However the count is not very ideal still there is no other probability available this time.
On fundamental side, although we witness a good withdrawal last week, total inventories still roaming around all time high while strong dollar likely to continue.
Based on above technical picture , crude probably move downward once again. Level $55.70 & then $51.50 will be on radar.
MCX -> S2(3610) S1(3724) cmp(3832) R1(3910) R2(3980)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/ sell recommendation.
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Crude can hit back again.Crude(25.03.2015) broken downside & traded lower towards $43 mark as mention in our last analysis. However the recovery was quite sharp to resistance zone once again.
Now crude is trading around $47.50 & as we can see on charts, its approaching to the broken tradeline of last symmetrical triangle pattern. This recovery seems to be a corrective one due to less volume & weak candlestick structure. However small timeframe charts showing some positivity but day & weekly charts are still bearish. To convert this rally into a reversal crude must provide a close above $55 mark otherwise a deeper fall may occur this time.
On fundamental side nothing have changed. Crude inventory & production still on higher levels while next OPEC meeting due on 5th june 2015 at Vienna, Austria is far away.
Based on above studies, we will prefer to stay on sell side & may witness a fall back towards $44 mark & may be followed by $41 in coming weeks.
MCX -> S2(2810) S1(3020) cmp(3130) R1(3300) R2(3560)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us
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