Mcxcrude
Copper Stuck Below Overhead SupplyWe're outlining "Five Bull Market Barometers" that we're using to help answer the question of whether we're in a new bull market. Next up is Copper, which recently completed a multi-year top by breaking through support near 405-410. After a sharp counter-trend rally, prices are now retesting this major resistance level. Copper and Emerging Market stocks have a strong positive correlation, so if Copper is stuck below the overhead supply at 410 then we are likely not in an equity bull market.
USOIl- Looking to test lowerUSOIL is building value lower, we will look to explore short side opportunity until we hold below 48.20 areas.
Immediate from short term TF inflection point remains at 47.30. weakness will be confirmed on hold below 46.80 areas.
target- downside test of 45.80-90 regions.
USOIL -Range BoundUSOIl is stuck in a small range, consolidating below Friday's Value area lows, At the same time we have seen multiple bounce offs the lows over the past week. we will hold 50.50's as the reference for this level.
1. Look to short and trade pullbacks with stops above 50.50 areas.
2. Break out play above 50.50s for targets ( dashed green)
In the time being this continues to be a scalpers market , trading mean reversions for short term play. swing players either holding positions can use the targets , else look to enter in a break outside the range or a strong impulse move.
USOIl- Failure to Break above back to Value zoneOvernight we have failed to sustain the highs in USOIl. and again back to within a larger multi day value zone.
No strong bias on either side for today we will hold the 51.50-30 areas as a key trend decider for the day
1. Bullish on hold above 51.50 for targets ( marked in dashed green )
2. Bearish on hold below for targets ( marked in dashed red )
On a larger TF context it seems we may have just marked a lower high and a failure to hold today could mean we will re visit the recent lows of sub 50s in coming sessions
USOIl Near a trend deciderUSOIL- The key trend decider level is at 57.60-45 areas.
1. Primary thesis is looking for it to break through to for a swing test of 56.95 regions.
2. Hold of this zone , for a retest back to 58 areas and higher
USOIL - Hitting getting into a short term confluenceUSOIL is getting into the short term confluence area, (marked in red zone) , hold into that can lead to a rotation on the downside to test back the areas of 54.15 and lower. Hold above that the trend changes to positive for a test back to 55.30 areas
CL_F Trade plan- Range bound Play?CL_F has seen a lot of volatility, does it cool off now? well we dont know. But here is the plan.
Looking for a range bound rotation and pullback trades within the support and the resistance zones.
Break outside the areas for potential target zones.marked in red and blue ( red - Short term references and Blue Long term references)
CL_F Trade ideas for TodayExpecting a hold of the 58.7-58.50 areas. for a test back to the target areas marked in dashed lines as a primary scenario.
secondary scenario - Break below that expect to test the downside target areas.
blue dashed lines- ( Long term references)
Red Dashed lines ( Short term references)
#CL_F #crude areas to watch outwe have these two references from larger timeframes in crude today.
1. 58.80- get there and hold below we move lower for test of 57.50, 56.25
2. 60.65 - hold above that we go on to test 63, 64.50 areas.
too many players eager to fade the gap up.. so we go to be careful :)
Crude Oil Another Down Swing?Crude Oil following nice pattern, it can be shorted on any up rally only for tomorrow with SL being above 72.85 for Targets of 70.5-70.8.. If it breaks 72.8, then next long target would be ~73.5$ which is also as per monthly breakout happened months ago at $50-55
USOIL INDISDE A DESCENDING CHANNELMARKET ANALYSIS: The pair is now trading inside a descending channel. As of now the current scenario shows that the market tends to reach the channel resistance. So once we reach the resistance and the candle gives us a better confirmation for shorting, We can go for sell trade setup. So lets wait and see what the market does in the coming days. Cheers!
28Sep-USOIL contrarian tradeLow risk short idea at CMP with stops above 45. The counter seems to be finding resistance in the channel trendline.
22sep: USOIL/CrudeTime for a contrarian play on the short side. Crude seems to be finding some resistance on the upper channel and has moved quite far from the averages. potential SL at 46.50 range. targets the lower channel trendlines max upto channel mean currently at 44.30
19sep-usoil low risk pullback tradethis setup provides a low risk opportunity. two confirmations 1. the channel low has been respected so far and now we see a breakout above a descending trend line. channel levels can be used for targets. 44.50, 45.20 range.
12-Sep: USOIL/CrudeLooks like a support in the lower ascending trend line and a low risk pullback opportunity. alternatively if it fails its a good stop reverse setup too. look for a test of 46-46.5 range
Crude under pressureCrude (22.05.2015) traded lower as per our expectation as mention in our previous article, however it fail to reach to $55.70 mark & bounced back with current week inventory support.
Now crude is trading around $60 mark & as we can see on charts, crude trying to retest the broken trade line of ascending channel. The bounce was supported by volume as well as pattern is not very ideal for recovery. On elliott wave count , crude probably trading under 1st downside wave with probably V wave down now. However the count is not very ideal still there is no other probability available this time.
On fundamental side, although we witness a good withdrawal last week, total inventories still roaming around all time high while strong dollar likely to continue.
Based on above technical picture , crude probably move downward once again. Level $55.70 & then $51.50 will be on radar.
MCX -> S2(3610) S1(3724) cmp(3832) R1(3910) R2(3980)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/ sell recommendation.
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