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Meanreversion

Situational Fluency | Are Markets Favorable For My Strategy?You may have heard the adage, make hay while the sun shines. In market terms, we might translate this to ... make (the most) money when conditions are favorable for your strategy. The recent increased volatility yesterday, and last Monday 9/20, also increase the probability that range days will follow. In this video, I take a look at a VWAP Bands strategy (Stay IN Your Lane) that does very well under these conditions. The primary indicator for the strategy shown in the video is called " VWAP Stdev Bands v2 Mod UPDATE" and is available in the public library on TradingView.
CME_MINI:MESZ2021
by RodCasilli
4
API3: Trend Continuation Analysis with TargetsAPI3 appearing to find support on well correlated uptrend. Anticipating support at -2 standard deviations (SD) below regression trend mean to hold. Watching for either a mean reversion, break above, and retest for bullish confirmation or break below -2 SD for exit. Analysis: Price Currently price action is ranging between $4.75 resistance corresponding well the POC for volume profile (blue line), and $3.99 support level just above Fib 23.6% retracement pulled from ATH to local low. Pink dashed lines on chart are areas of significant support/resistance as determined through analysis of multiple fibonacci pulls or simple S/R identification. RSI RSI currently sitting at neutral level of 51 needs to stay above 38, ideally looking for a cross and close above 55 in the next day or two for confirmation for bullish continuation. ADX/DI Increasing bullish trend though weakening slightly MACD MACD still in bullish territory above zero line. Though it appears to be nose-diving with a trajectory towards a zero-line cross, price action appears to be diverging from this move downward and MACD is starting to curl up. The trade: Entry: $4.17 TP1: $6.00 TP2: $7:00 Stop (Mental w/ alerts): $3.779 RR: 4.7 An ascending triangle has been drawn using the -2 SD of linear regression trend and the POC of volume profile/resistance. Watching for bullish breakout of this triangle. If PA breaks down out of the triangle I will be watching for support at stop-loss area at $3.779. This stop will be a mental stop-loss with alerts as I will want to see a Daily candle close below this before exiting trade to avoid getting whipsawed. If price closes below stop, trade will be exited and will reevaluate entry watching for support from identified areas (dashed pink lines). -Spreck
Long
by spreck
1
HUT Daily AnalysisComing up to a key supply zone. Two possibilities can come from this. Either the price breaks above and, ideally retesting resistance and support, runs to test higher levels. or The broader market seems some pressure and this level is rejected causing the price to retrace to the 200 SMA, and if that can't hold then the demand zone below. Waiting for confirmation will help you pick a direction early on in the rally. This can be found in the form of a break and retest for an upside breakout, or a bearish divergence from a mean reversion trade. Setting up this trade with a profit factor of 2.0 or greater makes it statistically efficient to trade.
NASDAQ:HUT
by portfoliokingsllc
Take-off for UAL but it could be a dangerous flightUAL recently smacked a support level at around $48 and seems it could possible rebound to the upside. However there is very major catalysts for UAL to further within the coming weeks. Covid is still relentless as always and with the new 'Delta variant' proving to be more adaptive, and dangerous it could potentially impact the already suffering fundamentals of the airline industry. One thing going against the virus is the current vaccine rollout which is currently on par with expectations. This could then act as a buffer for UAL despite the new developing strains such as the delta and lambda variants. As its currently summer in the US as expected flights have been increasing and interestingly enough even bet pre-Covid levels which is great news for UAL and other airlines. From a technical standpoint indicators push a bullish narrative with the Bollinger bands, rsi and mean reversion being oversold signalling a buy opportunity. Alot of support levels also were prominent where there was support level from the 32.8% Fibonacci level, linear regression aswell as the 180 day sma. Overall it appears like UAL has momentum to launch from its current price, possibly to $53 prior to hitting a resistance channel. However due to the nature of the company negative news sentiment will be very influentially on the stocks price so be wary.
NASDAQ:UALLong
by Mikey_Scali
LTCUSD Fibonacci Retracement LevelLTCUSD. Ideal entry is at the 0.382 Fibonacci Level. The Pin Bar close near that level. There was a gap that occurred on July 8, 2021 at 03:00. The gap represented horizontal support resistance level. Price closed in the area of the EMA 10 EMA 20. Price closed below diagonal trend level and retested that diagonal level as new resistance. Confluence: Diagonal Trend Line Level Gap (Horizontal Support Resistance Line Level) Fibonacci Retracement Level EMA 10 Dynamic Support Resistance Level EMA 20 Dynamic Support Resistance Level Pin Bar at Lower High
KRAKEN:LTCUSDShort
by TradeLive-
[Positional] Bharat Forge Long & Short BetBuy if breaks above : based on bullish Flag theory Sell if breaks below : Based on mean reversion theory Note - One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all. ======= I use shorthands for my trades. "Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.) "Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day. "Theta" , Trade Setup based on option Decay ! ======= I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share. ======= Like - Always follow a stop loss. In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High". In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings. =======
NSE:BHARATFORG
by ShivamMendhare
BTC likely has a technical bounce likely coming. but from where?Want to draw your attention to the purple line. the cpr or central pivot zone. notice how price reverts either direct to strike these levels reguardless if price continues or reverses. This same thing happens on daily cprs, weekly, and monthy cpr with over a 90% rate of occurance. This chart is projecting the future weekly levels. it is possible that the reversion happens prior to the close. or following... likely from the coming L3 which right now is at 31k These types of bounces reguardless of how frequent are hard to play because the developing or "next level" s they are labelled on the chart is hard to be sure of before they are set in stone. That being said dca is a possible stradegy. Currenly the incoming cpr levels are 2 to 4k higher than this price point. So I would expect a bounce from these regions or 30 / 31.5 up the where the new central pivot is formed upon the weekly close.
by Gunslinger2005
5
EOS eosusdt monthly camarilla pivotsDaily chart. with monthly cam pivots. So long as it can bounce off of or hold above the monthly L3. It might be a good entry position after some long consolidation. It is worth noting that the weekly stop loss level for those wanting a stop loss (aka level L4) is around 4.28. For those who want to run a tighter risk reward trade Also a wide cpr and untested monthly pivot shows hints of a higher possibility that the price may range instead of simply tank from here
Long
by Gunslinger2005
Ethereum 05/13/21, Mean Reversion studyThis is a really simple (almost too simple) way of predicting the most likely number of candles before a revisit to a certain level, presuming no outside factors increase the required sample of study. I have just tried to predict very specific candle positions and times as well as the bottom, but this is only for the extreme near future (ie, the easiest to predict), past that it becomes harder unless you reduce your precision several factors. This is an ideal situation where there is a clear median that it has clung to, and the standard deviations are very obvious and apparent. Note: I am only counting candle bodies, not wicks. edit: I also made the highlight before the current hour while I was writing this it seems to agree with me so far.
Education
by rubyatmidnight
Eth monthly mean reversion dip potentiallythere is still a day or so to make a stab at 3k. however even if it does the monthly close will leave a several hundred dollar lower developed pivot which historically btc and eth love hitting after closures. It is also worth noting that the developing pivot range is wide. indicating potentially a ranging territory for the next monthly levels. all and all maybe not the best time to hop in. and if on leverage maybe await the mean pivot reversion . chart is using camarillA pivots and CPR on monthly levels
by Gunslinger2005
029. Metallic Mean Reversion: Long Gold/Short CopperWell, well, well.. what an interesting setup we have here in the realm of the metals. It seems that confusion regarding inflation may have caused price overshoots in different directions for different metals. Two of such that glare out to me are Gold and Copper. I will structure the write-up of this Pig-Play a bit differently this time due to the inherent complexity of this trade, and more importantly because either half of this strangle can be taken successfully, in and of itself. While I find this particular situation to be blatantly weird (and thus near-technical arbitrage), either commodity is trading so far away from its respective mean that both plays should work wonders individually. Henceforth, while I recommend taking both plays simultaneously, I will outline each in different sections - in case one mean reversion is enough for you. LONG GOLD (GLD): As the chart suggests, Gold and its major ETF, GLD, have been consolidating in a comical fashion for too many months. In fact, I decided to perform a little accounting to determine what the fair price of Gold is after the most recent trillion-dollar stimulus print. The calculation and subsequent "should be" price are as follows: _______________________________________________________________________________ Data as of February 2021: USD in Circulation: 21.0006 Trillion United States (Monopoly) Dollars (www.quandl.com) Troy Ounces of Gold Mined: ~147.30 Million Troy Ounces (www.gold.org) _______________________________________________________________________________ Data as of March 2021: USD in Circulation: 21.0006 T + 1.9 T = 22.9006 Trillion USD; Post-Biden Print Troy Ounces of Gold Mined: ~147.30 M + ~0 = 147.30 Million Troy Ounces; Essentially Unchanged (www.commonsensemath.com) _______________________________________________________________________________ Gold USD/OZ Today: 1736 $/oz "Should Be" Price of Gold Post-Print: 22.9006 Trillion USD/147.30 Million Ounces = 3285.93 $/oz _______________________________________________________________________________ In conclusion, based on hard data, simple math, and basic accounting principles, Gold should be recognized at 3285.93 USD per troy ounce by the market and all of its participants. Yet, after the stimulus announcement, the price of Gold did not, in fact, immediately jump to over 3k/oz. No, instead it decreased and (hopefully) bottomed below 1700.oz. That, my piggish friends, is called fucking stupidity. In final conclusion, Gold is due for a mean reversion to around 1850ish in the near term, so its ETF, GLD, should get to around 175.00 in no time. See the chart for entry and two profit taking points. GLD PIG SPECS: Buy Long Calls: 164 Strike, 4/16/2021 Expiration Reasoning: Extreme likelihood of mean reversion back to 175 that has not been recognized by the options market yet. The proof is in the pricing: 164 Strike is relatively the same price as 167-169, so its 3 extra dollars of free delta in your pocket. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ SHORT COPPER (CPER): I will not be performing any basic calculations for this one. In opposition to Gold, and mostly for extreme oversold conditions, Copper has ripped higher in a straight line for many weeks now (this market is so fucked up these days). The degree to which Copper, and other such earth metals, have had deeply depressed prices for several years is something akin to statistical impossibility. Frankly, they have been quite manipulated downward a la futures short selling, but I will not lecture about this today. Bottom line is that Copper's run upward is, in my opinion, purely technical rebalancing. As with all things market-related these days, it overshot the mean by a country mile. Thus, the chart suggests that a very simple and predictable C-Wave down should be expected to begin in the next session or two. Since the dollars/share to the downside is pretty limited for this trade, I'd stick with at the money puts for a short flip. See the chart for entry/exits and below for Pig Specs: CPER PIG SPECS: Buy Long Puts: 25 Strike, 04/09/2021 Expiration OR Short Equity Directly at 24.83/Share Reasoning: Chart says it all, but the one factor that should illicit confidence is the purely technical, precise nature of this move down. It also provides same-week expiration opportunities such that I am actually recommending purchasing put contracts that are slightly in the money. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The cool parts about doing both of these trades simultaneously are: 1) You get a high probability of profiting in both directions; 2) Both commodities often travel in the same direction because both are metals that negatively correlate with dollar strength, all else equal. This means that you get a natural hedge baked in; 3) Due to general, market-wide idiocy, both metals have been severely oversold (bought) to the point where each basically must mean revert to some extent during the same timeframe; 4) The precise nature of the Copper trade allows for a slight calendar strangle as a final cherry on top. I don't know about you, but I feel even more convinced after doing so much simple math. In any case, it should be clear that the commodities market is offering up opportunities while the stock market isn't and I intend to exploit it piggishly. -PigFourAccountant OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD AMEX:GLD MCX:GOLD1! MCX:COPPER1! AMEX:CPER AMEX:GLD
AMEX:CPER
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
9
Technical say ASX REITS are overboughtWhile doing my daily search for possible trade options i found that among my many short alerts had a common trait. 5/8 Short alerts were all REITs. Now I'm not saying real estate is gonna crash or to prepare for another 2008 crisis however it appears that most ASX REITs are overvalued from a technical standpoint which opens the idea for a potential short. These stocks will be displayed below along with the bearish indicators aswell 1. Growthpoint Properties Australia (ASX: GOZ) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 2 Standard deviations from Mean (Mean Reversion) --> 3 standard deviations from Linear regression --> RSI overbought --> MFI overbought --> Bollinger bands overbought --> Resistance at 0.764 level on Fibonacci retracement --> Japanese Bearish Candle Dark Cloud Cover 2. Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (ASX:CLW) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 2 standard deviations away on linear regression --> Failure to break 0.764 level on Fibonacci retracement --> No strong volume breaking ascending triangle to act as momentum --> RSI slightly overvalued Bullish Technical Analysis: --> Support between $4.80-$4.83 (Ascending triangle line) 3. Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX:CQR) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 2 standard deviations away on linear regression --> Resistance at Fibonacci level 0.618 --> 2 Standard deviations from mean (Mean reversion) --> Resistance level at $3.98 Bullish Technical Analysis: --> Support level at $3.84 5. National Storage REIT (ASX:NSR) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 3 standard deviations away on linear regression --> RSI overbought --> 3 standard deviations away from mean (Mean reversion) --> MFI overbought --> Still overbought in Bollinger Bands --> Resistance level at $2.17 Bullish Technical Analysis: --> Support level at $3.13 Dexus, Goodman Group aswell as Cromwell property also have signs of being oversold however was not alerted by my scripts. Overall i see a pretty solid consensus that a majority of the ASX REITS are overvalued and a possible drop can be ahead however as real estate stocks jump more reactively to fundamental announcements it is important to also address that aswell.
ASX:XPJShort
by Mikey_Scali