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Measuredmove

BTC.D is putting in a major bottomAnything that follows is not to be taken as financial advice. As you can see from this weekly chart, Bitcoin dominance has been trying to paint a low since may 2021. I've had that 48.20% horizontal ray placed for almost two years, and we can observe how it's been already tested four times so far in the course of said time. While that level has been working as a resistance so far, price action doesn't look very intimidated by it. The way I look at it, a range break to the upside would be the most plausible scenario. Considering for how long this chart has been consolidating, looking for a move up to about 53% is highly probable, and one to about 58% is still very realistic. Furthermore, by drawing a measured move from resistance to bottom, and then applying it over the resistance, it becomes more obvious that anywhere around the 58% level would be an important area to consider this idea as played out. In order to confirm this as a major bottom, I'd need to see a convincing weekly close above the 48.20% level, until that happens, all that's been said remains in the realm of potentiality. Were there to be such a close, the entirety of the following upside move would very likely take various months.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by Andewyl
1
Bear Bounce in META May Push Further before Downtrend ContinuesPrimary Chart: Daily Time Frame, 8-D and 21-D EMAs, Long-Term Fibonacci Levels (Retracements of META's Entire Range), Uptrend from Nov. 4, 2022 Low SUMMARY: META remains in a severe downtrend since its all-time high in September 2021. The primary-degree trendline remains unbroken and in effect. A shorter down trendline for most of 2022 has been broken coinciding with its recent upside price action. META is experiencing a corrective rally, also known as a bear bounce (until proven otherwise). Bollinger Bands support the idea of further upside with the mouth of the bands expanding, and price walking the bands to the upside. The Donchian Channels also show that price is reaching multi-month highs, and its 21-period range is expanding as price pushes higher. Target 1 lies at $142. Target 2 is $149. Target 3 is $157-$158. Each target requires that price reach and hold the prior target on a daily close. Each target is a condition precedent for the next target's viability. Invalidation levels include the uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows as well as major support levels at $112 (key structural low), $115-$116 (volume profile). META began its decline much earlier than the broader indices. It peaked at an ATH on September 1, 2021, while SPX peaked on January 4, 2022. It has appeared to lead indices by a few months in this bear market. The long-term uptrend line from 2012 more than a decade ago was decisively broken in early 2022. This suggests that it may take a while for META to begin carving out a new uptrend line at a less steep angle based on whatever bear-market lows are formed—whether that be the November 4, 2022 low or a (likely) new low in 2023. Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of META with Decade-Long Upward Trendline The bear-market downtrend lines are shown on Supplementary Chart B. The pink line on the Primary Chart reflects the primary-degree of trend since the all-time high in mid-2022. That line has not been broken, and price remains well below it. The dark-blue line is a shorter trendline that lasts for most of 2022. It was broken to the upside in early December 2022. This is no surprise. Steeper trendlines are less sustainable, and often end up being replaced by their less steep counterparts. The break of the dark-blue line is not an end to the bear market, but it does signal a short-term shift that coincides with the sideways to higher corrective rally taking place. Supplementary Chart B: Trendlines within META's Current Bear Market In this bear market, META made its most recent low on November 4, 2022. An uptrend drawn from that low is drawn (pink line on Primary Chart above). META's short-term EMAs show that it has been rallying in earnest since this November 4 low. Note the slope of the 8-D EMA and the 21-D EMA. While these are simple indicators, sometimes their simplicity can cause some to miss the power of their message—indicating the short-term trend. The short-term trend remains positive, with price finding support at these EMAs. When price falls below the 21-D EMA, it quickly rises to reclaim it. See Primary Chart. The Bollinger Bands also reflect the upward rally, which should be deemed corrective until proven otherwise. The Bollinger Bands are widening at the mouth, and when price pushes through the bands to exhaustion levels (set at 2 standard deviations on this daily chart), it falls back but quickly pushes back into the bands. Yes, the CPI could end this prematurely, but technical analysis suggests this stock has further to run before it resumes its longer-term downtrend. Supplementary Chart C: Bollinger Bands Similar to the Bollinger Bands, the Donchian Channels also reflect an increase in volatility to the upside. Price is pushing new multi-month highs, which is easily seen using this indicator. As the upper band of the Donchian presses higher with price touching it, that reflects new 21-trading-day highs. But a quick glance at the chart below shows that the highs exceed all highs since late October lows. The October 2022 highs are the ones that will likely be taken out next if the rally continues. Supplementary Chart D: Donchian Channels Major support lies at $112, and $115-$116. In addition, the upward TL can easily be used as an invalidation level for any short-term bullish trades. It can also be used as confirmation for any shorts that wish to enter when the bounce exhausts. Targets are based on the measured-move concept and Fibonacci proportions. Target 1 is $142. That is the 150-day SMA. Target 2 is $149. This level is the measured move area where wave A (or wave W) equals wave C (or wave Y) from the lows. Target 3 is $157-$158. Target 3 is a confluence of levels including (i) the 1.272 extension of first leg of this rally projected from the start of the second leg, (ii) the .618 retracement of META's entire price range going back to the start of data on the chart, and (iii) the 200-day SMA based on today's date, which lies at $158. The bounce idea is invalidated if price falls below $112-$116. It may also be invalidated (depending on several factors) if price breaks below the pink uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows. Lastly, to quickly and effortlessly see the major support (supply zone) for the current corrective rally, see the blue rectangle below. Breaking this level should signal the next leg lower is underway in the primary-degree downtrend. Supplementary Chart E: Support / Supply Zone Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year! May your trades and risk-management work out very well this year. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:META
by SquishTrade
27
Why Gold Could Be Approaching a Trading Low Within Coming MonthsPrimary Chart: 2D Chart Showing Downtrend Parallel Channel, Fibonacci Levels and Major Support at YTD Low Gold OANDA:XAUUSD could be nearing a tradeable low. The primary degree of trend remains bearish. Lower highs and lower lows on the daily and weekly chart appear. The downtrend channel on a log chart (or linear chart) has contained highs and lows since March 8, 2022. Note the W-X-Y pattern on the Primary Chart. This is merely one potential EW interpretation of the price action in the downtrend this year. The Fibonacci targets are projections of wave W's length projected from the start of wave Y (which begins at the end of the rally in wave X). Note that other EW interpretations may be more appropriate. EW can often lead to multiple alternative counts that are equally valid. Further, EW can be incorrect at times because the wave counts on the shorter / intraday time frames are incorrect or ambiguous. In any event, this particular target can be valid under the measured-move concept as well as EW principles. The measured-move concept is explained here . The most conservative target is the YTD low at $1614 . The next target is $1589 at the .618 Fibonacci level. The final target is where the yellow circle lies—$1400 to $1531 approximately. This could present a decent trading low for a rally into 2023. As with other targets presented by SquishTrade, each lower target is only viable and effective if the nearer target is claimed first. For example, the $1580 and $1400-$1531 targets are not effective until the $1614 target is reached and held (below). Further, each target presumes the downtrend remains intact. If the downtrend is broken decisively (not a whipsaw), then the targets are all invalidated. Please consider the following additional technical analysis and perspectives from a well-respected author on this platform @Tradersweekly: Finally, as usual for SquishTrade's technical posts and targets, this target for Gold is not presented with an entry, exit or stop, and traders should consider prudent entry levels that make sense within their own trading system and risk parameters. Some traders only short at resistance, and some traders will only go long at major support. Time frame also matters. The reason no entry, exit or stop is provided is because this author wishes to leave those details—which depend in large part on real time reactions to price date—to each trader. The author does not wish to provide trade advice. Instead, the author prefers to offer only technical analysis that describes / analyzes the current price environment of various instruments and risk assets, which traders then may choose to consider along with their own research in applying their specific trading rules / system. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SquishTrade
69
KDA price targets for 2022I have another chart for KDA with a cleaner price action moving into the middle of December 2022. I have two price targets which are $0.46 at the 1.68 Fibonacci line and one at $0.59 which is another Fibonacci line. From the previous top, we had a 43% drop in price, and taking the same percentage drop into this recent possible high would bring us down to the 1.68 Fibonacci line. The second drop is so near to the 1.68 that I decided to use this as the stronger price target if we go lower. If Bitcoin does reach a $9500 price target then we could see this crazy low for KDA of $0.46. I also used a measured move on the previous high-to-low shown with the two yellow lines dropping down into the descending channel.
Short
by altcoinb
ETH Headed to New Lows Unfortunately, $569 PT Primary Chart: 2D Chart of ETH Showing Fibonacci Targets ETH and most cryptos are moving fast so this post will be brief. But ETH is headed to new lows. It has sliced through every single major retracement of the rally off the June 18, 2022 low. Squish has remained bearish on BTC and other cryptos despite very brief counter-trend forecasts on occasion to take into account the strength from bear rallies. ETH is plummeting along with the rest of the crypto market due to a well-publicized liquidity crisis that has seen SBF's net worth fall over 95%. Further, crypto market cap just broke below a long-term logarithmic TL. That strengthens the bearish outlook for the entire crypto space given the nature of the break. Supplementary Chart: Total Crypto Market Cap with Long-Term TL Squish's first price target is the YTD low around $880. The second price target is $569 , which is still conservative. Yes, that sounds extreme, but for those who lost 80% from buying at the peak, consider that buying at $1000 can quickly lead to a -50% to -60% loss. Caution is warranted for anything other than well-managed, disciplined trades for counter-trend bounces, which are actually low probability as @Scheplick discussed today in a livestream (highly recommend his livestream events in the future). The most aggressive downside target target is $367, which should not be considered unless and until price falls below $569 decisively. This is the measured-move area as well as a Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first major segment of the decline projected from the peak of the summer's rally. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
11
QQQ possible inverse head and shoulders on the dailyThe $QQQ is triggering a long setup on the right shoulder of a possible inverse head and shoulders. A (conservative) measured move of the head to the neck, from the lower right shoulder, gives a target of $302.40. The FOMC meeting is on Wed 11/02. News on 10/27: "Economists at BlackRock are speaking with financial advisers, saying that they are expecting "pivot language" at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting". If these rumors prove true at the FOMC meeting, the market and QQQ could have the catalyst to reach the target (quickly). This idea is only based on the charts, but the FOMC could provide a catalyst.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by FourC
19
$SOND extremely bullish setup. PT's are labelled based on chart patterns. - MMU (measured move up/ ABC) - Bull flag breakout imminent and the PT breaks the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. - A break of the neckline of the inverse H&S gives us the PT based on Thomas Bulkowski's statistical work. It is also important to note that the MACD crossed to the upside on the daily and the RSI is still not oversold. No bearish divergences in the momentum indicators. THIS IS EXTREMELY BULLISH.
NASDAQ:SONDLong
by Sangeeny
ETH's Response to Support Levels Should Offer More CluesPrimary Chart: ETH's Key Support Levels Approaching Based on Fibonacci and a Measured Move ETH's Recent Rally since June 2022 ETH made its YTD low on June 18, 2022, a day or two after many equity indices. Since then it has rallied, albeit not in a straight line, significantly. The rally has carried ETH approximately 1149 points higher so far, which is approximately a 130% gain. This rally has now reversed at least in the short term with the minor swing high made on August 14, 2022 at $2029.90. Whether the recent rally constitutes a trend reversal or a mere bear rally remains uncertain. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke yesterday at an economic summit at Jackson Hole, Wyoming (US), he communicated the need for continuing restrictive monetary policy and tightened financial conditions until persistent inflation eases back to the 2% target. So macroeconomic headwinds suggest cryptocurrencies, equities and other risk assets may struggle at best or have more downside at worst. While not making a call for a bottom in ETH or any other risk asset , this article notes that markets can bottom even when macroeconomic news remains quite bleak. Having identified the fundamental arguments relating to whether ETH may have reversed its downtrend, this article will not spend additional time forecasting the primary or longer-term trend in ETH. Instead, key price action and support levels will be discussed that may help evaluate the nature of ETH's trend in coming weeks. If the rally from the June 2022 low constitutes a major trend reversal (back to an uptrend), then the support levels identified will likely hold when tested. Sometimes a test can include a break that fails and quickly recovers back above the support, which is also called a whipsaw or false break. ETH's Critical Support Levels for the Current Decline The primary chart above shows key support levels using Fibonacci proportions. The Fibonacci retracements cover the range from the June 18, 2022, low to the August 14, 2022, high. These support levels lie nearby given ETH's significant decline on August 26, 2022. Interestingly, some of these key levels also align with important price supports at significant lows or consolidations. Two examples are described in the following list: The .618 retracement (yellow line) of the two-month rally coincides with the price support (dark blue line) at swing highs in late June and early July 2022. The .50 retracement (green line) aligns with lower end of a mid-July 2022 consolidation as well as the low on August 26, 2022 at 1488.00. The concept of a measured move may also be relevant to the current multi-day decline. For a measured move, a corrective wave A is projected from the start of a projected wave C. Where A equals C is where the measured move zone begins. The measured move zone ends where wave C of a correction equals wave A times a Fibonacci proportion of 1.272. These two support levels lie at $1217.53 (lighter blue line) and $1080.02 (teal line), which are shown beneath the .618 retracement line on the Primary Chart above. Note that this article does not presume a measured move is underway—that would require predicting that the current decline will constitute a corrective pullback within an uptrend. As mentioned, no position is taken on whether the current decline resumes the downtrend or corrects a newly started uptrend. In short, a measured-move level provides an area of support to watch to determine the nature of the recent decline. If price reverses at the measured move zone, then this increases the odds that the rally has further to run. If the measured-move zone fails, then this increases the odds of retest and break of the 879-880 lows in June. This is why the $1080 to $1217 area is important to watch over the coming days to weeks. ETH's Shift in Shorter-Term Momentum ETH's shorter term momentum has shifted to negative in the past two weeks. The shorter-term EMAs provide a good starting point for evaluating shorter-term momentum. Shorter-term in this context means several days to several weeks. Price has broken back below, and held below, the 8-day EMA for about 10 days. Over the past week, ETH's price tried at least twice to recover the 8-day EMA but failed back below by the close at the end of day. The 21-day EMA has now been broken too. Both EMAs slope downward and the 8 EMA has crossed below the 21 EMA, confirming the ongoing bearish momentum in the short-term. Supplementary Chart A: ETH's 8-Day and 21-Day EMAs Show Short-Term Bearish Momentum ETH's RSI on the daily chart confirms near-term shift in momentum. Note how RSI peaked towards the end of the recent bear rally around 71.42 on the daily time frame. This level is fairly overbought for a daily chart especially considering that the YTD price action has been largely bearish and choppy. Supplementary Chart B: ETH's RSI Shows Short-Term Bearish Momentum Note the sharp downtrend in RSI on the chart above as evidence by RSI remaining well below its EMA on the daily chart and RSI remaining within a well-defined, steep downtrend. Inferences from ETH's Technicals In conclusion, ETH's technicals do not provide an answer about whether the intermediate-term or long-term trends have reversed from this year's bear market. They do, however, help see that the near-term path of least resistance is somewhat lower. And they give us price levels and zones to watch to help determine what ETH's next move may be. And such levels may also help traders analyze whether the multi-week uptrend from June 2022 lows will continue further or whether it will be deemed a powerful bear rally within a remarkable downtrend. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. CME:ETH1! BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by SquishTrade
17
BTC in a 4-Hour Squeeze Just Above Make-or-Break Support Levels Primary Chart: BTC's Key Fibonacci and Measured Move Levels along with Key Demand Zone BTC continues to trade just above make-or-break levels as it has for much of this week. It continues to chop up and down, similar to the way equity indices have the past few days. Chop essentially entails price action within a range without any directional follow through. Traders tend to get chopped up because the price action starts to move in both up and down, but each time, follow-through does not happen. The squeeze is a Bollinger Band phenomenon where the bands compress to a narrower range. In other words the standard deviation decreases dramatically, reflecting reduced volatility. Both the 2-hour and 4-hour charts for BTC show that compression typical of a standard-compression squeeze. Because compressed volatility tends to correlate with a subsequent increase in volatility, squeezes help signal when significant directional move may occur. Supplementary Chart A shows the Bollinger Bands squeeze on the 4-hour chart. Supplementary Chart B shows the levels containing this weeks consolidation, where a breakout will signal the start of the directional move implied by the squeeze. Supplementary Chart A: Bollinger Bands Squeeze on 4-Hour Chart BTC's Immediate Resistance Levels at $20,503 to $21,403 On the Primary Chart, note the two major resistance levels above price, which are the green and golden lines. These are Fibonacci-based retracements of the entire rally from June 2022 lows to mid-August 2022 highs. The .618 retracement is the closest resistance level that must be reclaimed before price can resume its corrective rally higher. This .618 retracement is at $20,503. Above that, and the target is $21,403, the .50 retracement, which also coincides with the August 20-26, 2022, consolidation period. Note this 21,400 level also aligns with key lows and highs from both June and July 2022—these price resistance levels are shown on the Primary Chart by the two white parallel lines adjacent to the green .50 retracement line. The .618 retracement level at $20,503 also aligns with the top of this week's consolidation range. See the Supplementary Chart A below, showing the consolidation range from this week by parallel white lines. BTC's Immediate Support Levels Are Close Below at $19,134, $19,233 and $19,555-19,560 The base of this week's current consolidation (see Supplementary Chart B below) serves as the most immediate support level for BTC. While the upper edge of this range marks the most immediate resistance, which coincides with the .618 retracement (the gold line on the Primary Chart), the lower edge of the consolidation is approximately $19,555 to $19,560 as shown in the supplementary chart below. Any breakout from this current consolidation range will help dictate the course of BTC's price action the next couple weeks. A decisive break to the upside is a possibility, especially where traders and investors have been leaning quite bearish, a factor that can often provide some support, ironically, to price—because selling can dry up when everyone that is bearish has sold or shorted, and when price doesn't move downward, short covering can begin to put upward pressure on price. Support also lies at $19,223, which is the .786 retracement of the entire rally from June 2022 lows to August 2022 highs. This level is associated with another Fibonacci level at $19,134, the .618 proportion of the first leg of decline from the August 15, 2022, peak as projected from the start of the second leg of the decline on August 26, 2022. Supplementary Chart B: BTC's Consolidation Range This Week BTC's Measured-Move Zone at $16,238 to $17,443 The measured-move area, which also uses some Fibonacci proportions, shows where BTC could in theory fall assuming the decline continues. This area is a zone between $16,238 and $17,443. This post does not make a prediction about whether the measured-move target will be hit in the near term. Instead, the measured-move levels are identified as merely a possible price path using technical analysis. But before this measured-move target can become a plausible possibility, a downward breakout from this week's consolidation must occur. Furthermore, the .786 retracement at $19,223 must be violated as well as the teal blue rectangle showing the last three-month demand zone (Primary Chart above) before the measured-move target can be considered. CME:BTC1! AMEX:BITO BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. _________________________________________________________________________
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
6
SPX H&S Downward Breakout Primary Chart: SPX Head and Shoulders Pattern with Neckline Resistance and Fibonacci Supports SPX formed a Head and Shoulders pattern (H&S) on the daily and intraday charts over the past month. A H&S pattern is actually invalid until it's confirmed with a breakout below the neckline, drawn in dark blue on the primary chart above. In addition, because many traders and market participants see H&S patterns, they have a lower success rate. In any case, a retest of the neckline as a significant chance of occurring in the coming weeks even if the price ultimately continues its decline lower. So watch out for a retest of the breakout point, a common occurrence in choppy unpredictable markets like this year's market. Key levels for this week appear to be SPX 4023, SPX 3981, which are immediate supports that may be reached soon. Whether these supports break or hold (or break and then are reclaimed) will be important especially in the near term. A key level of resistance near term lies just over head at 4062.31. This is a Fibonacci level and it is the .382 retracement of the entire rally off June 2022 lows. Note that this level was tagged Monday, August 29, 2022, and held firm as resistance. In fact, Monday's high was just above this Fibonacci line by about 68 cents. The potential for this decline to be a measured move also exists. A measured move occurs when a price move is corrective in nature and retraces only a portion of the prior move. Whether this move is corrective against the rally off June lows, or whether it is the start of a new impulsive decline back to lows remains unclear—it's the million-dollar question that is debated by everyone on financial media. In any case, examining the corrective measured-move target is a conservative approach to finding a level where SPX may reach to the downside, though nothing is guaranteed in markets. The measured move area is just below 4000. If the first wave of decline has equality with the second wave of decline, the end of the second leg could reach 3997.73. Supplementary Chart A: Measured Move Target Zone between 3941 SPX and 3997 SPX SP:SPX TVC:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY VANTAGE:SP500 ____________________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:SPX
by SquishTrade
24
DJI Short Setup & Measured Move to ~32kDow Jones Industrial Average is overbought. I can tell without using RSI or any other momentum indicator. Thus, we have our short setup for this week. The ellipses point towards a very steep angle down, which could serve as a prime example for how far it can move vertically downward on peak selling. This can be very useful when measuring subsequent projected moves for future shorting and could offer some valuable insight into what kind of Elliott Wave correction might be forming on the monthly chart. I'm already long DIA Puts held over the weekend, but Ill be adding to these two specific strikes/expirations if there's any sort of opening pullback upward. See below for details: Contract 1 - Long DIA Put (1/3rd Total Position) - 342 Strike, 1/28 Expiration Contract 2 - Long DIA Put (2/3rd Total Position) - 340 Strike, 2/4 Expiration For those new to my options plays, I only list the speculative long positions that I have and not the short call positions that I intend to open because most do not have access to such methods. I will be shorting the calls two bucks above the open for 1/28 exp. Anywho, the elliptical geometry seems to be leaning towards an incredible 5000 point measured move down vector that will likely start and end in the same trading day! Unless that triggers a circuit breaker on an equivalent move down in SPX, itll be an all time record for sure. -Ellipti-Pig DJ:DJI SP:SPX CURRENCYCOM:US30 CURRENCYCOM:US500 AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
5