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Where are commodities heading to? Beyond 2022Where are the meat or commodity prices heading? Meat prices have been rising at a rate of about 3% per annual over the last 40 years. Meat is what I classified as an edible commodity, so is corn, wheat and rice. And as these commodities start picking up in prices, they are the one that will give the central banks a huge headache and to consider to hike its interest rates than the other commodities in the CPI basket. Why is this so? In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars or petrol, but not without food. Therefore, there is an urgency for the policy makers to first take care of the basic needs of the people. Content: . Long-term direction of Live Cattle . Trading ideas . Investing ideas Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. A little hack here to project the coming CPI data and also to know how aggressive the Fed will be with interest rate hike - you may consider to track the development of these edible commodity prices, if it is still trending up, we should be expecting a higher CPI and interest rates. Example on Live Cattle Futures: 0.025cts = US$10 0.10cts = US$40 145.00 = 1450 x US$40 = US$58,000 From 144 to 145 = US$400
CME:LE1!
by konhow
9
Seasonality In Commodities As The Summer of 2021 EndsAs September began last week, the markets are nervous. Stocks have seen some pretty awful seasonal price action in September and October. Crashes occurred in 1929, 1987, and 2008 in October. Commodities are highly seasonal markets. Some commodities typically reach seasonal highs and lows during various months of the year. Futures prices ordinarily reflect seasonal factors. Seasonality is a historical pattern, but 2021 is anything but a typical year Grains enter the harvest season The grilling season for meats ends Natural gas and heating oil enter the peak season while gasoline moves towards a seasonal lull Expect the unexpected as 2021 as seasonality takes a back seat in markets across all asset classes Meanwhile, as we move into the fall season in 2021, the impact of the worldwide pandemic continues to grip markets. Moreover, markets reflect political and economic landscapes. Seasonality could take a backseat to political changes in 2021 that are impacting the global economy. The natural gas and heating oil futures markets will move into their peak demand seasons over the coming months as winter approaches. The 2021 harvest will impact grain, oilseed, and other agricultural markets over the coming weeks. The Labor Day holiday marked the end of the 2021 grilling season, the peak time of the year for animal protein demand. Seasonality can be a powerful force for prices, but in 2021, they’re much more going on that may change expectations and the path of least resistance for seasonal markets. At Bubba Trading, we follow trends. The futures markets adjust to seasonal factors in advance as they reflect prices in the future. Seasonality is a historical pattern, but 2021 is anything but a typical year Seasonality is logical in raw materials markets, but the fall season has been the time of the year for some of the nasty crashes in the stock market. The October 1929 stock market implosion occurred on Black Tuesday, October 29. It began in September and ended in late October when the New York Stock Exchange collapsed. The Great Depressions began following the 1929 crash and continued through the 1930s. While the stock market correcting in 1987 looks like a blip on the chart, the S&P 500 fell from opening in October at 321.83 to a low of 216.46 or 32.7% in only one month. In 2008, the global financial crisis caused the S&P 500 to suffer its most significant downdrafts from September through October. As we head into the fall season, investors and traders will be highly sensitive to historical weakness in September and October and the stock market’s penchant for imploding at this time of the year. In the world of commodities, seasonality is closely tied to weather conditions. Grains enter the harvest season While grain and oilseed prices have corrected lower since the 2021 highs, the futures are entering the 2021 harvest season at substantially higher prices at the same time in 2020. As the monthly chart highlights, nearby corn futures opened in September 2020 at $3.4775 compared to the $5.34 opening price on September 1, 2021. Whole corn futures declined from the over eight-year high in May 2021 at $7.75 per bushel; they opened September at 53.6% above the previous year’s price. The monthly CBOT wheat futures chart shows the grain that is the primary ingredient in bread opened at $5.4250 in September 2020 compared to an opening price of $7.0825 on September 1, 2021. Wheat traded to an eight-year high at nearly $7.75 per bushel in August. After correcting, the price was still 30.6% higher in September 2021 than the previous year. The monthly soybean futures chart shows the oilseed futures opened at $9.48 in early September 2020 compared to $12.9150 at the same time in 2021. This year, soybean futures are 36.2% higher than last year. The weather conditions, rising inflation pushing production costs higher, supply chain issues, and other factors have created a significant bull market in the grain and oilseed futures markets. We could see more corrective action with the 2021 crop harvest over the coming weeks, but the cost of feeding the world has risen substantially from September 2020 to September 2021. While the weather in the US and the northern hemisphere had been the primary factor for grain and oilseed prices over the past months, the futures market’s attention will shift to weather in the southern hemisphere over the late fall and winter months in the US. The grilling season for meats ends The peak season for demand in the animal protein arena ended last weekend. It begins in late May on the Memorial Day holiday weekend and ends with the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of the summer. Grills tend to work overtime during the summer months and go back into storage sheds as the fall and winter are not ideal times for gatherings. Typically, cattle and hog futures rally into the summer season and reach seasonal lows during the early fall. The monthly chart shows that live cattle futures reached significant lows in October 2016 and September 2019 as seasonal demand weakness for beef weighed on prices. The April 2020 low was an outlier as the pandemic distorted cattle prices because of shutdowns at processing plants and supply chain bottlenecks. As the offseason for demand gets underway in the cattle arena, the market is experiencing an unseasonal bullish trend. The monthly feeder cattle chart shows a similar pattern of weakness going into the fall and strength as the peak demand season approaches. Feeders are going into the offseason in a bullish trend with four consecutive months of gains. Hog futures highlight a similar pattern to the beef market over the past years. The demand for ribs, sausages, and other pork products peaks during the summer months and declines after barbecues goes back into storage after Labor Day. Meanwhile, hog futures have corrected since June, but outbreaks of African Swine Fever in China, the world’s leading pork consumer, is underpinning prices. Meat prices are higher at the beginning of September 2021 than at the same time in 2020. On the continuous futures contracts: Live cattle opened on September 1, 2021, 20.5% higher than at the same time in 2020 Feeder cattle were 15.9% higher over the same period. Lean hog futures were 65.5% higher from September 1, 2020, to September 1, 2021. Meat and agricultural product prices that are highly susceptible to seasonal factors are heading into the fall season in 2021 at levels that are appreciably higher than last year at the same time. Natural gas and heating oil enter the peak season while gasoline moves towards a seasonal lull Energy prices are much higher at the beginning of September 2021 compared to the previous year. The end of summer marks the finish of the peak driving season in the US when drivers consume more gasoline and put peak mileage on their vehicles. The chart shows that gasoline prices were 74.7% higher on a year-on-year basis on September 1, 2021. While the fuel’s price is likely to drift lower for seasonal reasons, the technical price action is bullish. Natural gas is heading for the peak winter heating season, but the price has done nothing but make higher lows and higher highs since June 2020, when it reached a quarter of a century low at $1.432 per MMBtu. The chart shows that natural gas futures have a substantial head start on seasonal strength as they were 67.5% higher on the opening on September 1, 2021, than the prior year. Heating oil futures, a proxy for all distillate fuels, are seasonal but less so than gasoline as diesel and jet fuels are year-round energy commodities. As of the opening on September 1, 2021, NYMEX heating oil futures were 74.3% higher in 2021 than in early September 2020. The shift in US energy policy that weighs on production at a time when the demand is booming has boosted the prices of energy commodities on a year-on-year basis. Rising inflationary pressures have only exacerbated the price appreciation. Expect the unexpected as 2021 as seasonality takes a back seat in markets across all asset classes The US dollar is the pricing benchmark for all commodities as it is the world’s reserve currency. The dollar index measures the US currency against other reserve foreign exchange instruments. A stronger dollar tends to be bearish for commodity prices, while a falling dollar has the opposite impact. The dollar index opened at the 92.17 level in September 2020 compared to 92.67 on September 1, 2021. The marginally stronger dollar has not weighed on the seasonal or unseasonal commodity prices, which have been in bullish trends over the past year. Expect the unexpected over the coming weeks, and months and you will not be disappointed. Rising inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, policy shifts in the energy arena, and other factors are putting seasonality in the backseat of the commodities market over the past year. Meanwhile, those raw material markets that tend to rally during the fall and winter months could carry the bullish baton even more aggressively if the current conditions continue. Seasonality is a critical factor for commodity markets, but 2021 is anything but an ordinary year. --- Use the link below to sign up for early access to articles and more. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
2
$BYND Beyond Meat not everyone likes meat and the stock riseWithout a doubt, what in the eyes of many meat lovers could seem like a company with no future is gaining more and more acceptance. Food without meat content is now widespread all over the world with characteristics similar to the traditional corresponding. The company Beyond Meat that deals with these earns consensus and the title seems to want to go up and up again. The Miracle Viewer indicator that tries to identify interests on the part of the big players signals us thanks to the Market Miracle advisor a growing interest on the part of institutions and corporations. It generated an input signal at 152.39 price with a target of 163.46 or a possible profit of 7.2%. Analyzing the stock seems to have the momentum necessary to make the climb, maybe it will not start immediately but because of the market sentiment not properly positive. I still expect a price action similar to the one described maybe with a little more time before starting to climb. I decided to take a position on the title. This idea is based on the signal generated by the Marketmiracle advisor whose link you can find by scrolling at the bottom of this page.
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by MarketMiracleAdvisor
6
Beyond Meat 2.0 with Real Meat Protein! Welcome MEATECH 3DLook, i have a premium signal for all the 4364 Tradingview followers family. MeaTech is developing a novel, proprietary three-dimensional bioprinter to deposit layers of differentiated stem cells, scaffolding, and cell nutrients in a three-dimensional form of structured cultured meat, often called "clean meat" or "cultured meat." MeaTech Announces Pricing of $25.0 Million U.S. Initial Public Offering of American Depositary Shares and Approval to List on Nasdaq Capital Market. (prnewswire.com) MITC MEATECH 3D Market cap 128.347M vs Beyond Meat Market Cap 8.767B I see a 10X play here! Not trading advice.
MLong
by TopgOptions
16
BEYOND MEAT, Above and Beyond $BYNDThere is a big freaking triangle forming on the #BYND price chart... can be bearish.. but can rocket if the right news is issued in the next week. Price has been squeezing for a while now, will be released sooner than later, direction is hard to predict though. High profitable trade, with tight stop loss under the below structure. PT1:140 PT2:150 PT3: if Beyond defeats the COVID ->165 STOP: 120 Give at least 7 days to play the scenario out.
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by Ankel-ssj
$BYND can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea. Beyond Meat, Inc., a food company, engages in the provision of revolutionary plant-based meats in the United States and internationally. The share price rose after good earnings. I see some preconditions the share price will continue growing. The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply. These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days. So I opened a long position from $133,11; stop-loss — $119,10. Information about take-profits will be later. Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas. Thanks for being with me!
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by KozakHlib
Major disruption coming in meat industryThe Nasdaq Food and Beverage ETF is entering a major downturn as the US is beginning to experience major disruptions in the meat market. Yesterday the McDonald's CEO announced that they've had no supply-chain disruptions yet, but they're watching the situation "hour by hour" and are very concerned about it. Later that day, I heard my first story of a McDonald's that has stopped selling burgers because beef is too expensive. The problem is basically that meat processors can't keep up with orders due to labor shortages. As you can see, FTXG has broken below its moving averages and may lead the market downward as the situation develops.
NASDAQ:FTXGShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
TSN Short - Bet Against The BeefAn individual stock trade that I'm taking on Webull. Classical trade, noting the fact that TSN has put in a double top formation and is breaking down from the Point of Control of it's latest range with rising Volatility indicated by WAE. Parallox signals bearish, Voss signals bearish entries. Fundamentals are also strong here, as Tyson has recently had to close their largest plant due to Corona virus outbreak in Waterloo. Trade safely. All In, All Out Profit Taking strategy with fixed Stop Loss.
NYSE:TSNShort
by CrackingCryptocurrency
Watching beyond meat (BYND) as long term stockBYND is going to touch: - LONG support line of previous uptrend ( green ) - and the SHORT resistance line of a current downtrend ( violet ) If the price will go higher than 78.5 and it will manage to stay there for a while... And then starting right after 79.1-79.2 there will be a huge grown in close future! P.S: I made a mistake, that bought that stock at 83 and then at 78.12 before market confirmed it's growth. sun-up: Don't buy after the weekends, before the market opens.
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by yuzhva
TIME TO BUY $BYNDOne of the highlight of 2019 was the euphoric rise of NASDAQ:BYND after its listing. like all parabolic rise it always ends in tears for inexperienced investors and $BYND was no exception well after it retrace i think it may have found bottom and is currently building it accumulation region 76.15- $83.25. i would expect this stock to range for a while building a healthy base before resuming its uptrend buy zone $78- $76 This trade invalidates if prices trade below $75.5
NASDAQ:BYND
by lexcel