Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning:
"Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis."
...ummmhh... §8-()
The Chart does look very scary too.
This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short.
If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
Medianline
NVDA - Back again, now down again?The pattern seems to repeat.
Again, we had a HAGOPIAN, which sais, that price goes back more than from where it came, and this rule was right.
Up in here, I'm not that confident anymore that price will reach the Centerline. But, it's not about what I think, or how confident I'm are. I just have to follow my Strategy and act according to the Rules, the trading framework of the Medianlines.
That said, we either shoot up on earnings, or we definitely tank down. For now, there is no trade, only a Gamble. I rarely gamble, so I'll sit on the sidelines and let it happen whatever will come out on earnings.
As for a Lotto-Ticket, I would buy some Puts and just have fun to watch how they get burned, or how I get a Christmas Moment in the beginning of the new year §8-)
BTCUSD - Centerline Profit-Target in reachIt's not that far anymore.
Price is trickling down it's path.
I could imagine that near the confluence point, where the 1/4 line and the red Centerline meet, the PTG could be fulfilled.
However, a crack of the red U-MLH would generate a signal for a pullback up to the white Centerline.
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TLSA takes a breather, a deep oneTrend Barrier is broken.
Close below the Weekly Center-Line.
There's mostly a reaction to such events, so I expect a slight weekly pullback to the upside before a complete break to the PTG1.
PTG2 could be the continuation profit target mid term.
Rule #1: Protect You Soldiers
China A50 Index is ready for a huge moveThe China Index A50 holds huge potential for a massive trade.
The white fork projects the most likely direction the price will take. What supports this long idea is the fact that the market changed its downward behavior when it broke through the trend barrier on September 2, 2024.
The expected pullback has manifested right before our eyes, so we are now at a point that offers us a wonderful long entry.
BTCUSD - Bitcoin short after a pullback to the Center-LineJust a quick short term analysis:
Price opened and closed below the Center-Line.
This is a bad, very bad sign. My trades are to the South from now on.
I expect a pullback to the Center-Line.
A nice short opportunity, down to the red CL.
Further targets would be the white 1/4 line and the L-MLH.
RBOB Gasoline has broken the Trend-BarrierSince the TB is broken, we go a little sideways. Looks like someone is loading the Boat.
However, if we break the red resistance, chances are very good we start to move to the North.
To me this looks like a fantastic Risk/Reward.
So, if it looks like a valid Trade, and it smells and behave like one, it probably IS one I should take.
Let's stalk this for a break of Resistance.
GC - Golden Rocketship To The U-MLHWe got on the Rocket-Ship earlier and took profit.
If you're still in with a position, or if you can manage to get in with a decent Risk/Reward, you may want to aim for the U-MLH.
The Stars look good and profits are twinkling §8-)
If the 1/4 line is cracked, we will see a follow-through.
NQ - Nasdaq is set up to POP or DROP, and here's whyIt's nagging and nagging and nagging at the U-MLH, but this Cheese must be super hard.
If we they are not able to eat through it, open and close above it, then the I'm on to stalk a short.
PTG1 is the 1/4 line
PTG2 is the Center-Line
IF we open and close above the U-MLH, the target is the white Center-Line.
It's simple, clear and there's not more to babble about this opportunity.
CL - Crude Oil is approaching the Center-Line SupportAs mentioned in the previous analysis, we see that CL pushed back and comes right to where we expect it to go, down to the Center-Line.
Our job here is to observe how it reacts in here. Support at the Center-Line, or a blow through, or swinging around it?
Patience is key, and the observation time is very valuable, because we can learn from it and feed our stats.
Patience young Padavan, patience. §8-)
Gold advancing to our profit target 2So far, everything played out wonderful.
PTG 1 is in the books and now Gold is moving towards our second PTG.
However, trailing the stop below structure is never a bad Idea. The worst that can happen is, that the trade gets stopped out in profit.
Check out the whole setup at the related publications.
Coffee KC - Why I see $390 and $470 as possibleThe Medianlines project the most probable path of price. It's not a fortunetelling tool. It's a technical tool which is based on serious statistical research.
So, what I do when I use it is, using statistical proven evidence on a graphical basis, supported by a definite trading framework.
Why do I pound on these information?
Because it's important to understand what Medianlines aka Pitchforks are based off, and what they are good for in trading. No "Magic", just a tool that helps a trader/TA in it's daily Job.
ANALYSIS OF COFFEE
The up-sloping white Fork shows us the most probable path of price. It's up. Price blew through the Center-Line, found support, and advanced even more to the upside from there.
Then we have the slanted yellow dashed lines.
What are they?
Many say this is a action/reaction thingy.
Others say, it's a timing tool.
I say, it's both.
The way I use it, it takes in the angle from the last real high, and the low of the pullback from it. Then I go back to the last low before the new high. This creates an Angle, and a width. Combined it gives us not only a potential timing, but with the dynamic of price movement also potential resistance/support.
So, we can see where we got such signals - where the orange circles are. The second one intersects very nicely with the Center-Line of the white Fork. I observe this "incident" often when I use them.
Back to Coffee...BRB §8-)
We see the time/price line intersecting with the 1/4 line of the Fork. I expect a reaction there - even a pullback back to the Center-Line is possible from there.
But if price also blows through this level, then I know that the next Target will be the Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
So, there we have it.
I hope you can take away some knowledge from this post and thanks for all the boosting and following folks.
ZINC - Seems it breaks monthly supportThe lanted green support line has a crack.
It's a first indication of a turn in mid-term trend.
Long term Medianline view on ZINC shows that price is battling at the L-MHL. If we get a weekly close and new open below it, it's ripe for a short.
At least I will stalk it on the daily.
PTG1 is the Center-Line.
Crude Oil Is SandwichedPrice is currently between the white centerline and the long-term support/resistance level.
Since the price is near the centerline, we're seeing a kind of pullback to it. According to the Medianline framework, this is expected after trading below it.
The downside target would be the orange CL, as that aligns with the organic target. However, between the current price and the CL target, the long-term support level is quietly sitting there—possibly waiting to trap shorts.
What should a trader do now?
a) We could stay on the sidelines, observe, and learn.
b) We could go short, reasoning that the price is trading below the white CL and has made a textbook pullback to it. My stop would be placed above the orange bar that broke through the white CL.
A long position is not an option for me, as we are still below the white CL.
By the way: Look to the left and notice how the current situation mirrors past price action:
1. Break below the CL
2. Retest the CL
3. Move downward
Bitcoin Short Term ShortThis is just a daily and short term view.
First we see the support at the Center-Line.
Then it got cracked and price trades below it.
Now we see resistance on pullbacks up to the CL.
I expect a move to the south, at least down to the white-dashed CL.
If price can jump above the green CL, then further upside is ahead.
That's it for a short term view.
For a broader view, just check the thread on the linked chart analysis.
DAX - Bullseye! Next Act: The Decline?Whenever the markets are booming, whenever a gardener starts giving stock recommendations, it’s time to brace yourself…
The German Dax has reached it's Centerline.
It's back in Balance - Or has reached it's extreme, depending on how you look at it.
Whenever this happens, we the Market
a) turns and trades in the opposite direction towards the next LIne. In this case the Lower-Medianline-Parallel.
or
b) trades through it, most of the time comes back to it, and continues in the origianl direction, which in this case would be up.
To me, this is the time to watch the DAX more closely. If you are a follower, you now that I have a Bias - which is not always helpful in my trading.
But yes, I tend to lean to the short side. Specially in these over hyped, over invested times.
So I stalk a short, but in the same time be open for a long after a confirmation on the daily time-frame.
Let's see, let's be patient and don't listen to your gardener... 🌱👨🌾 🌿👩🌾
MSTR - Back to a new short levelAfter hitting Profit Target 1 (PTG1), it’s time to make a decision about the remaining position.
The fact is, MSTR tested the 1/4 level for the second time and found solid support there. Now we’ve moved higher, back to the centerline.
For me, it’s clear: if we get an Open and Close — a full bar — above the CL, I’ll close the rest of my short position.
I still think MSTR is heavily manipulated. Besides the fact that this Bitcoin catalyst isn’t following BTC’s moves the way it should, it’s cheating investors for profits.
That said — if there’s weakness, I’ll continue building the position. If I had no position, this is the place where I would open it on a Short trigger.
If there’s strength, I’ll close it.