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Medianline

MSTR - Back to a new short levelAfter hitting Profit Target 1 (PTG1), it’s time to make a decision about the remaining position. The fact is, MSTR tested the 1/4 level for the second time and found solid support there. Now we’ve moved higher, back to the centerline. For me, it’s clear: if we get an Open and Close — a full bar — above the CL, I’ll close the rest of my short position. I still think MSTR is heavily manipulated. Besides the fact that this Bitcoin catalyst isn’t following BTC’s moves the way it should, it’s cheating investors for profits. That said — if there’s weakness, I’ll continue building the position. If I had no position, this is the place where I would open it on a Short trigger. If there’s strength, I’ll close it.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning: "Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis." ...ummmhh... §8-() The Chart does look very scary too. This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short. If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
ADBE - Pullback From The BalanceNo, I don’t like Adobe. But it doesn’t matter at all which company I like or don’t like. My only goal is to make money in the markets. Let’s take a look at what we have on the chart: Adobe has reached the centerline. The market is in balance and has reached Pivot 3. According to Andrew's Framework, P5 is considered a reversal point, whereas P3 is expected to see a relatively smaller pullback before P5 ultimately unfolds. Nevertheless, a reversal is likely at the centerline. Additionally, we are in a support/accumulation zone after the market has dropped over 40% from its 2022 high. I'm stalking a long entry and put my money to work. Long ADBE <--- ME §8-)
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by Tr8dingN3rd
RUT - Russel is in a similar "Dump" patternIn 2021 we saw the Russel creating this Dump Pattern: 1. Sideways 2. Break the high 3. Dump Watch how it looks now. To me it's very, very similar. Any other confirming signals? Yes! Price reached the white Center-Line and started to go south. Here's my game plan: If the weekly TB is broken on a close, and an Open is below the TB afterwards, I'm looking for a short entry. PTG1 is at the red Center-Line and a runner with a definite PTG2 at the green support line. My weapons will be the Options, not the Futures. It gives me much more leeway and freedom of flexibility.
TVC:RUTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
MSTR keeps digging its own grave.Well, since my last post about MSTR, the trolls have been having a field day. What a blast! §8-) I stand by my previous post about MSTR because, honestly, I see no future in this SCAM. Especially now that Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a deep pullback (see my last post about Bitcoin for more). So, what do we have here? MSTR broke through the centerline and tried to claw its way back up. Then came the decisive breakdown. An open and close below the centerline paved the way for a trip south. Thanks to more hype and yadda-yadda reports, we saw a pullback up to the centerline — which, by the way, was perfectly in line with the trading framework of forks. But after that failed pullback, the price went the other way, and MSTR has been digging its way further south. For those who took profits at the 1/4 line, you can now look forward to PTG2 with confidence. Or, if you’re convinced that MSTR is headed for a reckoning with regulators in the medium term (although that seems doubtful since they all seem to be napping...), you might consider doubling down on your short position. Wishing everyone a profitable and exciting new trading week!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside. It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1. But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher. And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move. If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%. Just create a plan and follow it.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
YELP projection long and good momoPrice is in a clear up-trend with wide pullbacks. Since July price was holding at the TB and L-MLH. The weekly momentum looks good to me. Although, a little concern could be the rejection at the 1/4 line. But this happened also in the past, and then, after a new attack, price took off. So, this definitely needs patience to play out. I maybe start with a little "feeler" position today. Above the 1/4 I would add more. Above the CL even more.
NYSE:YELPLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
BTCUSD - Bitcoins volatility is increasingFirst of all, a heartfelt thank you for all the boosts and a warm welcome to the new followers. I truly hope I’m providing value that makes your decisions and trading ideas easier to navigate. Now, let’s dive into the chart: The bars are growing larger and volatility is picking up. We’ve got solid support at the centerline, but this support might soon give way. If that happens, Bitcoin will drop below the centerline, setting the stage for the following scenarios: 1. Panic sets in, and the market falls** – likely down to the 1/4 line (PTG1). 2. A pullback to the centerline. If the market fails to close above the centerline, we’re back to Scenario 1. On the other hand, if we see an open and close above the centerline, it’s very likely we’ll witness a rocket-like surge upward. What’s the move here? My thinking remains the same as last time: If you take 50% profit off the table, it doesn’t matter what happens next. If the market drops, you’ve secured 50% profit. If it rallies, you’re still in with 50%. Wishing you all the best of luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tr8dingN3rd
Nasdaq under pressure and aims for 18'400NQ is being pushed down, and a rebound doesn’t seem possible at the moment. There are some fundamental factors supporting this weakness. However, as a chart analyst, I focus on the signals within the chart itself. What I see is a possible target around 18,400, which aligns with the L-MLH. With the weakness of the MAG7, the Nasdaq is unlikely to make further gains. The options are sideways or down. The latter is what I trade according to the rulebook.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Gold’s Next Move: Upward Momentum Building at Key SupportGold is reacting exceptionally well to the Fork. It has not opened and closed below the L-MLH within a single bar, which eliminates any immediate downside expectations. Instead, we observe a condensed, slanted trading range or coil, indicating that price is being gradually pressed to the upside. In my previous post about Gold, I anticipated a rocket-like breakout. Since then, price has simply moved down to the L-MLH, finding support there. This price action, coupled with the ongoing upward pressure, confirms my analysis—albeit slightly delayed. As NQ and S&P approach their respective targets, as outlined in my other analysis, I expect Gold to start moving upward, with targets at the CL and U-MLH.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is. All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground. I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool. The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules. Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy. So, I follow the same process with the ES. I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH). I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks. Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
NVDA - A 90% Short fall to the centerline ($100-$104) or lowerDouble top, failed breakout of the high—call it what you will. Fact is, NVIDIA has taken a brutal hit and is now trading back inside the fork. Hagopian—what on earth is a HAGOPIAN? According to the Fork Framework rulebook, if the market fails to reach its next target (the next line, such as the centerline, lower median line parallel, etc.), it reverses and moves further back than where it started. This is (not so exactly) what happened in December. Instead of reaching the centerline, the market turned, shot beyond the upper median line parallel (U-MLH), and was supposed to break above the November 21st high. It missed that target as well. And this, my friends, is....? ...again, a HAGOPIAN! Now, it’s heading south again. But this time, we have an over 90% probability of reaching the centerline. Why? Because when the market breaks above the U-MLH and then falls back into the fork, it’s a very bearish signal. Of course, nothing works 100%. The market could turn around today and push past the high. But statistically, we’re aiming for the centerline—and there’s an over 90% chance we’ll hit it. When will it happen? Sorry, my crystal ball is broken. All I do is follow the Fork/Median Line rulebook and rely on my experience. As for me, I’m opening a short position in NVIDIA today and may add to it on the way down to the centerline. And I play this game with Options, so no hard price level stop for me.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
MSTR - Ponzi Loop Will Crash & BurnEvery now and then, I like to say that greed eats brains for breakfast. In the case of MSTR, though, it seems to have state approval to do so. How else could MSTR still be kicking? There’s nothing to chart here. Nada. Zip. This is pure pump-and-dump economics born out of the "perfect storm" of circumstances. Fast money? Sure, it's fast—but definitely not sustainable. It’s also a foolproof recipe for losing not just your shirt, but your pants and maybe even your dignity. Remember GME and all the other “get rich quick” lemming programs? Only a microscopic percentage actually "got rich," and an even tinier fraction stayed rich. Most of them? Just cautionary tales with a hefty dose of regret. Sorry, gamblers… err, "investors." §8-) Instead of betting the farm on people like Michael Saylor, how about this revolutionary idea: use your own brain. Learn chart analysis, develop real skills, and slowly build up a nest egg that’ll still be around when you’re old and gray. But hey, who am I to judge? MSTR SHORT until 0.0001
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
14