Medianline
The BTC cheat sheet BITFINEX:BTCUSD has a very high probability of hitting this Median Line (ML), the middle blue line, this will be the make or break area. Typically with ML analysis the price will initially fall thru the ML but will almost always return to it to retest, even if it bounces off the ML on the first touch watch for a retest, just look at the chart every time it crossed not only the ML but the other major trend lines in between, test, retest, find direction. if the retest fails and she breaks lower that will be very ugly and a very profitable short. If she can hold the ML, she has a good probability of heading back up to retest the upper parallel. This is the easiest way to follow the price action, just find the major pivots and stick a fork in them, look how well BTC has played off this pitchfork its almost unbelievable.
As you can see looking back, price will always retest a trend line at least once, be patient, no need to rush in the second it pushes through or bounces off a trend line. wait for the retest to jump in. If price fails to reach the ML or an Upper or Lower parallel, and you will know because it will try more than once, its a sign of a reversal.
Every crypto trader should have this on their long term chart to use for support and resistance levels, look at the last bounce and the bounce before that, both came right up to a trend and failed, very easy to follow once you have the pitchfork on the right pivots.
If you found this helpful hit the like button, if you have a comment or question feel free to ask, Happy trading
GBPAUD: Back to Back Trade OpportunitiesPrice is being traded at the right shoulder of a large head and shoulder pattern. Overall we wish to catch the big downmove but till then we may go long for a 100-150 pips buy trade. Price reached the sliding parallel of an upsloping channel at the level where we do have the median line of a downsloping modified pitchfork. Both lines act as support so considering going long is a nice idea. In such case we may aim for the upper parallel of the red set where any sell setup completion will give us the reason to trade the H&S pattern for a big move to the down
EURUSD: Pending Bearish Butterfly at ResistanceThis week was an outstanding one related to my EURUSD trades delivering big time. In this week I expect price to keep climbing as we are in a bullish context related to median line analysis. On it way up price will complete a bearish butterfly pattern which completes at a key resistance level. Any sell setup completion at D point will be a nice opportunity
GBPUSD: Potential Rally on Its Way (Reversed H&S)Looking at the daily chart of GBPUSD is pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend with price moving in a channel that the lower parallel and the lower quartile of the median line create. You may have already heard that it's fighting the trend isn't the smartest thing a trader can do especially if there is no a good reason.
In this GBPUSD daily chart we do have a reason..! A reversed head and shoulder pattern has developed with price being massively rejected at the right shoulder level. I am not saying that we should jum in right away. Instead we may wait to see if price breaks above the quartile, and in such case we better wait for a pullback (retest) to the broken level.
Any buy setup comppletion at that level will be a great opportunity for us to get in a trade with great potential to the upside
Head & Shoulders at Resistance to Push US Dollar to the DownAfter a long term rally price has developed a head and shoulder pattern at a key resistance level. To be more specific the upper quartile of the median line in addition to revious structure create a key resistance where the pattern completes. We already may see a rejection candle at the right shoulder.
AUDUSD: Buy Opportunity at SupportPrice broke above the sliding parallel of the median line, it pulled back to test it and instantly was rejected. It seems that previous resistance now may act as support. At the same level we do have the 0.50 fib retracement of previous uptrend, making the support level a very strong one.
GBPJPY: Key Level to Watch for ShortsPrice is about to reach a key resistane level where we have the upper quartile of the downsloping median line, previous structure and the 0.886 fib retracement of previous downmove. In addition RSI looks overbought.
Watch for a sell setup completion in case price tests the upper quartile
PITCHFORK - CFD XAUUSD Analysis Q3 2018Analysis for XAUUSD Q3 2018
Current price is around the lower line pitchfork
Best opportunity to go long
If the price make a reversal here and keep the momentum upwards
Price expectations are able to reach the median line
However bearish momentum is strong, confirmation price break lower line pitchfork
PITCHFORK - Forex USDJPY Analysis Q3 2018Analysis for USDJPY Q3 2018
Expecting price reversal around median line pitchfork
If yes we could see price moving lower towards lower line
However on US Index from our analysis is currently retest on median line
Stronger dollar would push USDJPY towards upper line pitchfork
ES - E-Mini is naging at the U-MLHWhat do we see here on this chart?
We see the white down-sloping Pitchfork, giving us the most probable path of price, of course on the pendulum swing level.
The blue A/R set.
It show's us nothing less then the center and the lower and higher extremes on a normal swing level.
See where price get hammered back at the confluence of the red zone and the blue, dashed A/R line? Watch the last closes...
If we break above the white U-MLH (Upper-Medianline Parallel), then chances are over 80% that we hit the yellow Centerline (CL) of the yellow Pitchfork.
If we fall below the L-MLH (Lower-Medianline Parallel), then chances are over 80% that we will see prices at the white Centerline!
We better prepare for both scenarios and put our portfolio in balance and potential trades in place...
If you want to learn how to find high probability trades, then I have a free course for you on my website.
See the footer of this post.
P!
EURUSD: Long Term ForecastingThis week I did take two trade in the EURUSD, both of them being succesful (links below). I got several pm's from traders asking me to post my view in EURUSD forecasting the bigger picture in order to have a solid base to take our decisions.
Looking at the weekly chart of EURUSD and using median line analysis and simple structure levels we may easily see is that price is now being traded at a key support level which consist from the lower parallel of the upsloping pitchfork and a previous resistance structure level now acting as support. In addition to that - always in the weekly chart - we do have a pending head and shoulder pattern with the left shoulder and the head sitting at 1.20450 and 1.25400. A potential rally towards 1.20450 will give us the completion of the pattern and a very good reason to watch for shorts.
Switching to the daily chart we do have more confluence. At current support level we do have a double bottom pattern completion in additon to a bullish RSI divergence - a good sign that price is about to reverse.
All the above give us a clear bullish context in EURUSUD..! This does not mean that is certain that price will head north. Structure changes in no time and our job is to adapt and reconsider our view..!
Like and follow this post as I will continuasly update it when setups make their presence..!
Lastly but no least, feel free to ask to questions and post your ideas so we make this EURUSD idea a big one with a ton of value for the community..!
Afterall if BItcoin is the king of Cryptos, EURUSD is the king of all currencies..!
All the best,
John
Daily Chart:
USDCAD: Key Support Zone to Watch for LongsYesterday markets closed and left us with an open position at USDCAD having already booked more than 150pips as the double top pattern has worked wonders (link below). Definately there is more room to the downside for more profit to be made.
In this post what we easily see is that as price drops it is heading towards a key support level which consists of the sliding parallel of the upsloping median line set and previous structure. RSI is oversold - another sign that sooner or later sellers will give up pushing USDCAD to the down and a reversal might occur.
So in case we see price reaching the 1.30600 level we should close our sell trades from previous post and start looking for a buy setup completion.
As always I will update this post when a setup comletes..!
SPX500: Resistance Holds, We Watch for ShortsLooking at the 240min chart of SPX500 we have right in front of us a very strong resistance level which already seems to be working with a price drop. Price has broken below the median line of the upsloping median line set and pulled back for a retest. At the same level it meets previous structure and the 50%fib retracement of a previous downtrend.
Overall we are in a bearish context and looking for a sell signal is all we should do in the upcoming trading week
GBPUSD: Washing & Rinse Bullish SetupLooking at the horizontal support levels (orange line) someone could easily say that price is breaking below current support and selling is our option. In my analysis this is a classic wash and rinse bar which is taking out stops hidden below previous lows before start climbing to the upside. Looking at the slope of price what we can say is that previous support (green sliding parallel) has stepped up - a sign that we do have a bullish context although it seems we are in a clear downtrend.
In addition to that we do have an oversold RSI which signals a potential end of current downmove.
This setup is one of my favourites and definately I am going long from current level with sl and tp as shown in the chart. In case it looks scary to you just wait for your favourite setup to complete at current level and buy GBPUSD.
Gold: Buy Setup at Key SupportIn my last Gold post I highlighted a head and shoulders pattern which wasn't activated with price dropping even further . It's now testing and being rejected at a key support level - the sliding parallel of a median line set plus the 1.27 fib projection of previous downtrend. Going long from current level is a good idea.
** US Dollar shows signs of weakness which add value to our thought buying Gold.
EURUSD: Great Confluence to Go LongAfter our last successful EURUSD trade (link below) we do have another opportunity ahead. The lower parallel of the median line set, the 78.6% fib retracement of previous impulse, previous support structure and an oversold RSI all give us a very good reason buying EURUSUD.
Sl and tp as shown in the chart..!