COIN - Further Lows On The PlateThe last chart i COIN I showed you (see linked) was a nice play. Will this one cooperate too?
Let's analyze the chart:
The white Fork's CL was reached.
It came down hard and fell beyond the L-MLH.
We see the orange Fork, a pullback Fork.
Price struggled to jump above it's CL a view days ago, and now opened and closed below it, AND below the white Forks L-MLH.
Because I want to give this trade a little room, I initiated an Options Strategy by combining Short & Long Spreads.
You can see in the Black Window (Graph), there is plenty of room to let it go against the initial idea.
The B/E point is at the $85 short Call.
When time passes and price would stay exactly where it is now, the position would create a little profit.
If price is going up and stays between the horizontal line (yellow Arrow in the Graph), we profit.
If price of COIN starts to fall, we make profits along the dotted white line.
So, what's the benefit of this trade?
Why not play it directional by just shorting COIN?
1. There's a time decay involved.
My short Call-Debit-Spread generates money, every day by decaying in value.
2. There's the directional aspect.
If price cooperates, then the position profits from the "right" movement AND 1.
Downside?
If price MOVES (it HAS to move) in the wrong direction above $85, then I loose with both positions.
Luckily I can manage this options strategy when ever I want. I can open and/or close Spreads, I can add or remove Legs in favor of my position. I can add Stocks Long OR Short.
Too complicated?
I learned, that success does not just come from a 1-Trick trading Setup/System. If you want to survive in to-days markets, you have to learn, adapt and never stop this process.
I personally like to have as many possibilities to skin my Cats as possible.
I'm a Nerd, a Tr8dingN3rd and I live for what I do §8-)
Medianline
CL - Crude Oil Bold CallOh my..I think something big is on the way.
Let's first look at what we see on the chart:
It's a long-term chart, where each candlestick represents 3 months. Why did I take 3 months? Because I wanted to see the big picture.
Look at the red frame.
This is a daily chart, and with all the candles going up and down like a rollercoaster, it's messy and will keep you up all night.
The yellow chart is the same, but here I have only taken the swings and hidden the bars. And that's real peace of mind. It's clean and shows you where the real pivots are.
Let's go to the main chart.
The pitchfork goes back to the low we had in the 80s. This is the anchor for the A point. Then the top for B and the negative for C.
Do you see how the middle line catches the resistance and the support? What else? It's clean too. Going up in the time frame hides the noise.
From now on, the last 3 candles also have support at the centre line. And if I apply Human-AI-Pattern-Recognition (...what a word ;-), then I see a potential huge run-up towards the U-MLH (Upper-Medianline-Parallel).
Another fact that supports this thesis is that the USD has the potential to fall (see DXY analysis). And of course there will be other economic influences that will throw "oil" into the fire... kinda weird §8-)
However, as we can never have the whole cake and eat it too quickly without the cook cutting off our fingers, we have to wait for the first break of the last swing high, which can be clearly seen in the yellow frame.
Or we can start building a position now, taking on more risk but being rewarded with huge upside potential over the next few years.
However, my position with this analysis will be very long term. How will I play it? I don't know yet, but I'm considering building a CL monster with Black Magic Options Voodoo §8-)
Hope this helps and have a relaxing weekend.
S&P500 - 0 To 5 Count seems to confirm the ShortIn my previous post, I said that we have a short at hand in the SP500/ES.
1. ES Trigger Candle Bearish
That was before P0
2. ES has reached the TOP for now
That was at P3
In both postings price was not able to reach at least the Warning line (dashed white).
Now we have the 0 to 5 count confirming what happens when price trades below a Medianline, in this case the L-MLH where at P3 price banged it's head.
So, what now?
At P3 price was testing the L-MLH.
Now we will get a re-test at "P5 & Trun".
From there, another short is on the plate and I will load the boat probably on a intraday basis priceaction.
Is it possible that price will trade back into the Fork?
Sure, that happens now and then. And it could also this time. That's why we have to trade accordingly and use our Money/Risk management to protect our capital.
I'm in holiday, so there won't be as many updates as normally.
Trade save & t'care out there.
DX - US$ Index on the way to the Center-line.In previous posts I already showed how DX is moving towards the CL.
It failed two time, then they cleaned out the Stop/Losses and now DX is on it's way to the Center-line.
Now that we have good confirmation, it would be a no brainer to load the boat even more on a pullback at the CIB line. (yellow).
DX1! - Dollar Index at equilibriumSo, here we have the USD Index at the Centerline at a balanced level.
What if the US$ starts go north?
I would say, markets, which are btw. also totally overbought, are tanking.
This scenario is on point with the CPI today.
Obvious or a fluke?
As always, anything can happen, even a new spike in the Indexes.
FRHC - Freedom Holding Corp Topping.I read about Freedom Holding Corp in the recent Hindenburg Research paper.
It sounded quite alarming, but I was considering ignoring the report for an hour and focusing on my chart analysis.
Here's my analysis:
First of all, this stock appears to resemble one of those Pump & Dump scams. However, let's take a closer look at the chart facts:
THE FORK
...indicates that a climax might be imminent. The price has just reached the Upper-Medianline-Parallel, and the rejection is evident from the candle's wick as of today. It's important to note that this is a monthly chart, and we still have a few days to go!
ZERO TO FIVE COUNT
Even the 0-5 Count suggests a potential 5-High, implying that the peak might have been reached, and a reversal could be on the horizon.
DIVERGENCE DIVERGENCE
Yes, there are two divergences, and they are quite significant!
THE SHARK CANDLE
You might hear a whisper of "...come in, the water is fine" when observing the volume and upward movement in this month's candle. But be cautious – this whisper could be the sharks luring the guppies, only to devour them later. You could end up becoming a feast of "Fish & Chips" §8-)
By now, you probably understand my thoughts and potential plan. I'm leaning towards a short position, but I won't let greed cloud my judgment. This will just be another trade, even though the chart analysis is aligned with Hindenburg Research's findings.
I'll allocate my usual 1% - 2% of my stake for this trade. My aim is to make money, not to become a hero. I intend to continue profiting over the next 20 years (assuming I survive these tumultuous times).
Always remember that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
So, why not savor a good trade and find contentment in a piece of the pie?
§8-)
GC - Gold short to the Center Line
It's very nice to see how price reacted at the CL, then came back to the U-MLH.
And again price got rejected at the U-MLH.
The A/R line is broken and now price has a good chance to travel to the Center Line again.
btw: This trader has the same idea, just using another technique:
Great one, I really like this.
S&P500 -ES has reached the Top for now.This is my 100% believe, that the S&P500 has reached at least a temporary high.
From here we will go down, at least to the dashed WL (Warning Line).
We had the Open & Close below the Lower Medianline Parallel. But price couldn't reach the WL. So, that means we had a HAGOPIAN cooking.
A HAGOPIAN means, that price will go further in the opposite direction than from where price came.
And this rule was right. SP500 was going up like there is no tomorrow. Just stupid buying all the way.
Today it found it's wall, banging it's had on the Lower Medianline Parallel. This was the first Test. As we know, price can create multiple tests before dropping down.
I was observing price action the last couple weeks and it was Insanity at it's best. Be it from Algos or HFT's, I don't care. I just follow my rules and currently they say:
<<< IT's OVA >>>
So, I follow my Medianline/Fork Rules and I'm Short.
The target is as of my rules, the next Line, which is the Warning Line. Interestingly it's also where price intersects with the bigger (Green) Pendulum Swing Fork.
Let's have a Christmas experience §8-)
PFE - Pfizer drop from medain line.Here's not much on the chart.
But what you see is evident.
The pitchforks median line is respected by price many times. And this time it's the same.
But there's a reason why this time price could flush down to the L-MLH. Indexes are weaker and weaker.
The first profit target for me is either the L-MLH, or the A/R (yellow) line. The Action/Reaction line is projected from above's swing range.
So, there we have another one to the short side.
I have more short charts than longs.
However, I always try to keep my overall portfolio balanced.
How?
There are always industries and sectors which perform to the long side, even when markets tank. It's simple but it takes effort.
OKTA - High Long Potential - Minimalists AnalysisI'm absolutely NO fundamental analyst.
I literally have no good clue how to read the fundamentals like the Pro's are doing. And I don't plan to learn it in the near future.
BUT...
...I trust my common sense.
The Blue Box explains my common sense thinking and why I see OCTA as a potential buy for the long term.
What I know for sure are my TA skills.
And what I see there is, that price respects the L-MLH of the Andrews Pitchfork.
The Green Box shows the support range.
If you zoom closer you see the "Trigger" bar (green) which started the up-move.
The Blue Boxes are just for myself. I cut out the noise by splicing the inside bars and outside bars to one block. That makes the chart reading easier.
What else do we have in the TA arsenal?
The MACD and the Mansfield RS.
You probably know what the MACD projects.
The Mansfield Relative Strenght is not known very widely. Nonetheless it does it's job by measuring the evolution of OCTAs price compared to the SPX over an average of 52 periods by default.
So, bringing it all together:
If price don't drop below the Forks lower line (The L-MLH or Lower Medianline Parallel), AND both, MACD and Mansfield are positive AND the volume starts to rise furious, then my Gatling fires from all guns. §8-)
Wish you all a happy weekend.
COIN - Super Bullish, But Hot EngineCOIN is running hot.
The ride so far is phenomenal, but also way too quick for my liking. This can be seen on the RSI, which is super hot right now.
A nice Long-Confirmation is the fact that Volume on the weekly chart did increase nicely.
The red resistance got peeked twice now.
It's exactly where price broke down last time and traders where puking their stomach empty.
If price can stabilize above this resistance, then we have a open road to at least $190 to $220.
If not, a breakdown to the white up sloping Centerline is very possible.
DXY - US$ Index on the way to new highsThe orange Fork is a "Pullback Fork".
I wanted to know how far price will pull back.
The orange Center line gives a clue. And so price came down to the CL.
But not only to the CL, it even pierced it, and washed out the stops, after creating little Base (green).
This behavior left a huge HAGOPIAN that forecasted a move to the upside, beyond the point from where price came (...from the CL). And so price did.
Now we are on the way up to the White CL.
We have a over 80% chance. What I would love is a pull-back to the downside and hide my stop behind the engineered previous low, where they washed everybody out before rocketing to the upside.
It's a weekly chart guys & gals, this needs a lot of patience.
Happy Weekend
NQ - Nasda Test/Retest, now down.NQ had a phenomenal run-up since yesterday.
It was hard to find any sign of weakness.
In the 15 min. TF I found the correct Fork to apply that gives me any usable information about price.
1. The Shiff-Fork projects price to the upside, but also expose the fact that price fell out of the projection below the L-MLH.
2. Price stopped at the HVN. Or better, the Algos bought price at that level (violett line).
3. Price had it's first "Test" of the L-MLH, and soon after the second one, interfering with the TL from way above. Such "coincidence" I call "Confluence".
4. My Scalping filters, the Indicators also signaled that it's time to give it a go.
5. Finally I observed the Bid/Ask Volume and saw large order got thrown at the Bid. This is my ticket to ride and I'm short the market.
PCDR - FiftyFifty. How to deal with this,As we see, price is sitting right at the CL.
But what does this even mean, if price is at the Center line?
It is, that price has found it's balance.
Anything can happen from here.
Chances for Long or Short are 50% in general.
Any other hints from the Chart?
Yes!
Price jumped above the CL.
Then it bounced back two times.
In between jump 1 and 2, price got hit on the head at the 1/4 line of the white Fork and fell out of the most probable path of price - it's what Pitchforks project (not predict).
But wait, there's more!
We have a Hagopian. Price was not able to reach the U-MLH. And our rules dictate that price will move in the opposite direction more than from where it came...from the Center line.
Ahaaaa...
...so could it be that price will, at least, pierce the CL?
Absolutely!
So no hurries to jump in too early.
Stay tuned and observe this stock!
Thanks for any support guys & gals.
§8-)
VTRS - Potential U-MLH breakout to the CenterlineThe Orange down sloping Fork did it's job very good so far. Even the (yellow) sliding parallels gave us good information how wide the shift is. And we even got some confirmation from the divergence
Now VTRS is nagging at the U-MLH.
Also nice to see how this stock is stair stepping towards the Center line (orange lines).
Is it too late to jump in?
In my trading it's never too late, if I have a good risk/reward.
However, we must be aware that the "Last Sellers Zone" is right in our way. Are the sellers still sitting there?
Let's see if the U-MLH will break out, smack the sellers and rockets to the Center line.
BTCUSD - Too weak to holdIn the weekly Chart I expected BTCUSD to climb.
The reason was that the most probable path of price was to the upside.
But in the Daily TF, the L-MLH (White) is broken.
And the Red down-Forks Centerline is also cracked.
According to the rules of the Medianlines/Pitchfork it's a sign that price will trade down to the L-MLH.
Any potential buy zones?
Yes!
If price can manage to jump back into the white Fork, or above the red Centerline, then BTC should head higher was it would be expected in the Trading Framework of the Forks.
RSI is oversold too. So at least this could create a (short term?) bounce.
A 80% edge - Mostly unused. Why?The Medianline/Pitchfork Tool provides a high probability (~80%) to reach the Centerline from any parallel line.
That means, if you can figure out how to buy as low as possible, or short as high as possible, your trade works out ~80% of time.
Why would one not use this edge?
Ask me questions, I'l answer.
JD - Washing The Stops Out First?A follower asked to chart JD.com
And since it's Sunday and I'm sipping my fresh brewed coffee from my "La Pavoni" Espresso Machine, I have time to help out a buddy in the Trading Space.
Here we go:
The Monthly (Daily will follow below) Chart is nice and orderly. It has a good Base. And we also see where the last bunch of buyers where from 2019 to 2020.
JD had it's shiny days when it went up to P0.
From there the clouds began to darken. It was, and still is on the path down to a potential P5, which is not achieved yet.
So, that would mean a break of the Base?
Yes!
But, what about the Last Real Buyers (Green Box)?
Put it in perspective. These old buyers had the Job to not let the Stock go down anymore, but to encourage the CROWD to buy more. Big boys where already loaded there...
Any other ideas why a break of the Base and a Wash of the Stop/Loss orders could happen?
Yes.
1. If I where one of the Whales who's behind JD.com, I would want to buy low and sell high. So, my advice to the Market Maker would be to take out all the Stop/Loss orders, sitting below the Base. Throw the final Max. Pain to all HODLERs of JD and prove their bravery.
And then, when everyone and their Mothers throw the towel, I would pick them all up...of course for a very low price.
Please, if you have JD in your portfolio, don't hate me for this. I just throw out my thoughts and tell about my experience. I love you §8-)
Is there more...?
Sure:
2. The Fork
The red Pitchfork projects the most probable path of price. That's the nature of the Andrews Pitchfork. And it does it very well as we see.
Until price has climbed above the U-MLH (The Upper-Medianline-Parallel) there is absolutely no intention that JD will start to stop from falling.
So there we have it.
Can we build a plan to buy out of this information?
Why not:
Wait for the wash.
Wait for something important that shouts in your face.
Then start to gather the facts together that give you many good reasons to buy JD for the long term and make a killing in the next Pump. For example:
1. Wash is over
2. Price climbed above the Base again
3. Price is above the U-MLH
4. The earth did not end despite the climate activists predicting it for the 48th time and the Christmas Tree didn't burn down last year §8-)
Wish you all a happy Sunday and - Go get your free ForkTrading-BLUEPRINT on my website.
T8N3
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US100 H1 - Neutral baseAnalysis
- Black: D1 long forks (median line)
- Red: H4 long fork (lower parallel). Previous week's levels.
- Orange: H1 long weak fork. Previous day's levels.
- Yellow: m15 long fork (median line).
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Weak long and neutral base.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US30 H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the lower parallel and the upper parallel).
- Red: H4 long fork (upper parallel). Pevious week's levels.
- Orange: H1 long fork (between the lower and the sliding parallel). Pevious day's levels.
- Yellow: m15 long fork (over the lower parallel).
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction, long trend. If the H1 fork breaks it is short. Target is the median line of the H4 long fork.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - UsdJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median line and the upper parallel)
- Red: There is no H4 fork. Previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (over the lower parallel). Previous day's levels.
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction and short trend. If the H1 fork breaks, it is long. The range market has a great chance.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - EurJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the upper parallel and the median line)
- Red: There is no H4 fork. Previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short weak fork (over the upper parallel). Previous day's levels.
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction and short trend. If the H1 fork falls, it is long. The range market has a great chance.