NQ - Nasda Test/Retest, now down.NQ had a phenomenal run-up since yesterday.
It was hard to find any sign of weakness.
In the 15 min. TF I found the correct Fork to apply that gives me any usable information about price.
1. The Shiff-Fork projects price to the upside, but also expose the fact that price fell out of the projection below the L-MLH.
2. Price stopped at the HVN. Or better, the Algos bought price at that level (violett line).
3. Price had it's first "Test" of the L-MLH, and soon after the second one, interfering with the TL from way above. Such "coincidence" I call "Confluence".
4. My Scalping filters, the Indicators also signaled that it's time to give it a go.
5. Finally I observed the Bid/Ask Volume and saw large order got thrown at the Bid. This is my ticket to ride and I'm short the market.
Medianline
PCDR - FiftyFifty. How to deal with this,As we see, price is sitting right at the CL.
But what does this even mean, if price is at the Center line?
It is, that price has found it's balance.
Anything can happen from here.
Chances for Long or Short are 50% in general.
Any other hints from the Chart?
Yes!
Price jumped above the CL.
Then it bounced back two times.
In between jump 1 and 2, price got hit on the head at the 1/4 line of the white Fork and fell out of the most probable path of price - it's what Pitchforks project (not predict).
But wait, there's more!
We have a Hagopian. Price was not able to reach the U-MLH. And our rules dictate that price will move in the opposite direction more than from where it came...from the Center line.
Ahaaaa...
...so could it be that price will, at least, pierce the CL?
Absolutely!
So no hurries to jump in too early.
Stay tuned and observe this stock!
Thanks for any support guys & gals.
§8-)
VTRS - Potential U-MLH breakout to the CenterlineThe Orange down sloping Fork did it's job very good so far. Even the (yellow) sliding parallels gave us good information how wide the shift is. And we even got some confirmation from the divergence
Now VTRS is nagging at the U-MLH.
Also nice to see how this stock is stair stepping towards the Center line (orange lines).
Is it too late to jump in?
In my trading it's never too late, if I have a good risk/reward.
However, we must be aware that the "Last Sellers Zone" is right in our way. Are the sellers still sitting there?
Let's see if the U-MLH will break out, smack the sellers and rockets to the Center line.
BTCUSD - Too weak to holdIn the weekly Chart I expected BTCUSD to climb.
The reason was that the most probable path of price was to the upside.
But in the Daily TF, the L-MLH (White) is broken.
And the Red down-Forks Centerline is also cracked.
According to the rules of the Medianlines/Pitchfork it's a sign that price will trade down to the L-MLH.
Any potential buy zones?
Yes!
If price can manage to jump back into the white Fork, or above the red Centerline, then BTC should head higher was it would be expected in the Trading Framework of the Forks.
RSI is oversold too. So at least this could create a (short term?) bounce.
A 80% edge - Mostly unused. Why?The Medianline/Pitchfork Tool provides a high probability (~80%) to reach the Centerline from any parallel line.
That means, if you can figure out how to buy as low as possible, or short as high as possible, your trade works out ~80% of time.
Why would one not use this edge?
Ask me questions, I'l answer.
JD - Washing The Stops Out First?A follower asked to chart JD.com
And since it's Sunday and I'm sipping my fresh brewed coffee from my "La Pavoni" Espresso Machine, I have time to help out a buddy in the Trading Space.
Here we go:
The Monthly (Daily will follow below) Chart is nice and orderly. It has a good Base. And we also see where the last bunch of buyers where from 2019 to 2020.
JD had it's shiny days when it went up to P0.
From there the clouds began to darken. It was, and still is on the path down to a potential P5, which is not achieved yet.
So, that would mean a break of the Base?
Yes!
But, what about the Last Real Buyers (Green Box)?
Put it in perspective. These old buyers had the Job to not let the Stock go down anymore, but to encourage the CROWD to buy more. Big boys where already loaded there...
Any other ideas why a break of the Base and a Wash of the Stop/Loss orders could happen?
Yes.
1. If I where one of the Whales who's behind JD.com, I would want to buy low and sell high. So, my advice to the Market Maker would be to take out all the Stop/Loss orders, sitting below the Base. Throw the final Max. Pain to all HODLERs of JD and prove their bravery.
And then, when everyone and their Mothers throw the towel, I would pick them all up...of course for a very low price.
Please, if you have JD in your portfolio, don't hate me for this. I just throw out my thoughts and tell about my experience. I love you §8-)
Is there more...?
Sure:
2. The Fork
The red Pitchfork projects the most probable path of price. That's the nature of the Andrews Pitchfork. And it does it very well as we see.
Until price has climbed above the U-MLH (The Upper-Medianline-Parallel) there is absolutely no intention that JD will start to stop from falling.
So there we have it.
Can we build a plan to buy out of this information?
Why not:
Wait for the wash.
Wait for something important that shouts in your face.
Then start to gather the facts together that give you many good reasons to buy JD for the long term and make a killing in the next Pump. For example:
1. Wash is over
2. Price climbed above the Base again
3. Price is above the U-MLH
4. The earth did not end despite the climate activists predicting it for the 48th time and the Christmas Tree didn't burn down last year §8-)
Wish you all a happy Sunday and - Go get your free ForkTrading-BLUEPRINT on my website.
T8N3
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US100 H1 - Neutral baseAnalysis
- Black: D1 long forks (median line)
- Red: H4 long fork (lower parallel). Previous week's levels.
- Orange: H1 long weak fork. Previous day's levels.
- Yellow: m15 long fork (median line).
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Weak long and neutral base.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US30 H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the lower parallel and the upper parallel).
- Red: H4 long fork (upper parallel). Pevious week's levels.
- Orange: H1 long fork (between the lower and the sliding parallel). Pevious day's levels.
- Yellow: m15 long fork (over the lower parallel).
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction, long trend. If the H1 fork breaks it is short. Target is the median line of the H4 long fork.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - UsdJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median line and the upper parallel)
- Red: There is no H4 fork. Previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (over the lower parallel). Previous day's levels.
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction and short trend. If the H1 fork breaks, it is long. The range market has a great chance.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - EurJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the upper parallel and the median line)
- Red: There is no H4 fork. Previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short weak fork (over the upper parallel). Previous day's levels.
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction and short trend. If the H1 fork falls, it is long. The range market has a great chance.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - CadJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 short strait fork (over the upper parallel). Previous week's levels.
- Orange: H1 short fork (over the upper parallel). Previous day's levels.
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction, short trend. If the H1 fork falls, it is long. The range market has a great chance.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - AudJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 trend long fork (between the median line and the lower parallel)
- Red: H4 short fork (upper parallel). Previous week's levels.
- Orange: There is no H1 fork. Previous day's levels.
- Institutional investors are leaving the market.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction, short trend. If the H4 fork falls, it is long. The range market has a great chance.
Wheat - Too FastNature is beautiful.
It's always balancing the underlying energy.
That's what we see here.
Wheat spurted down too fast.
The down-swing can be put in context by the Medianlines.
Here, price has reached it's balance again at the CL.
What's next? I bet for sideways to short action, until we crack the orange CIB line.
Stalking Hat on...
NVDA - Why And When I Short Nvidia Yes, NVDA is stretched.
Price got so pumped with all the AI (fake?) news that it looks now like a Pump & Dump pattern.
However, it's not a reason to play Lotto.
We better wait for facts.
What are the actual facts in the eyes of a TA?
a) Pendulum Swings give context
b) the daily chart reveals where price has a high potential to turn sour. It's when price is opening within the Pitchfork, where we will short it and ride down to the Center Line.
c) RSI gives context about a strong divergence and underpins the story.
So, no no need to rush here.
And if we miss it?
Then there's always another trade §8-)
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US100 H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long forks (median line)
- Red: H4 long fork (lower parallel). Previous week's levels.
- Orange: There is no H1 fork. Previous day's levels.
- Yellow: m15 short fork.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- If the m15 fork is break it is long. Target is the middle and the bottom of the H4 fork.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US30 H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the lower parallel and the upper parallel)
- Red: H1 long fork (upper parallel). Pevious week's levels.
- Orange: H1 long fork. Pevious day's levels.
- Blue: m15 speculative fork.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction, long trend. If the H1 fork breaks it is short.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - UsdJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (over the lower parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (over the lower parallel). Previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (upper parallel). Previous day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction and long trend. If the H1 fork breaks, it is long.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - EurJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (over the upper parallel)
- Red: There is no H4 fork. Previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 long fork (over the upper parallel). Previous day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction and long trend. If the H1 fork falls, it is short.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - CadJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: There is no valid H4 fork yet -red short trendline maybe. Previous week's levels.
- Orange: H1 long fork (median line). Previous day's levels.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction, long trend. If the H1 fork falls, it is short.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - AudJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 trend long fork (between the median line and the lower parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (lower parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: There is no valid H1 fork. Previous day's levels.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction, long trend. If the H4 fork falls, it is short
ES - S&P Example Of Multiple Reactions Off Of A ActionSo, here comes a little lessen, that could have a huge impact on your Trading.
Many of you know that in my arsenal of tools I use the Medianline/Pitchfork tool very often. It's my best tool to project the path of price, find extremes and centers in the markets.
One day, I was stepping back in the world of Action/Reaction and started to research on the wisdom of Dr. Allan Andrews and Babson. I modified their Action/Reaction model in a new way.
Here's what I have found so far:
1. Identify the correct "last" Pivot (Anker 1).
2. Identify the last Low (Anker 3).
3. Wait, until Anker Pivot 1 is broken, and the market did a pullback (Anker Pivot 2).
If you're at point 3., this means that price already shoot up again above the Anker Pivot 1, and preferable even higher as the last Pivot above Anker Pivot 1.
From now on, you can observe, how price is behaving at the Reaction lines (Yellow R's).
How to trade it, use it?
Well, that's upon yourself.
Or, you may wait for a course I'm maybe planning.
But I highly recommend you study it and make your hands dirty §8-)
Happy Trading
DXY - USD Approaching Last Resort Of SupportSounds dramatic, I know. :-)
We see where price got rejected near the Centerline (white).
We see that price broke the little (blue) shelf which inflects with the orange Centerline. So, orange Centerline is broken too.
According to the rules of the Medianlines, we can expect a pullback to it. And it would be a little Gift to enter Short, or load up the boat.
However, the last support before a massive breakdown is the white Lower Medianline Parallel. If we break through this level, the new target is huge, down at the L-MLH of the orange Medianline (Target Zone).
To me, this would also open other opportunities. For example a Bold Long in Crude Oil.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US100 H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long forks (upper parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (between the median line and the upper parallel). Previous week's levels.
- Orange: H1 long fork (median line). Previous day's levels.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- If the H1 fork is break it is short. Target is the middle and the bottom of the H4 fork.