Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US30 H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the lower parallel and the upper parallel)
- Red: H1 long fork (median line). Pevious week's levels
- Orange: There is no valid H1 fork. Pevious day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction, short trend. Target is the bottom of the H4 fork. If the speculative fork breaks target is the top of the H4 fork.
Medianline
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - UsdJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (over the lower parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (over the lower parallel) and previous day's levels
- Yellow: m15 short fork (upper parallel)
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction and short trend. If the m15 fork breaks, it is long. Target is the low of the H1 short fork.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - EurJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (median line)
- Red: H4 short fork (over the upper parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 long fork (median line) and previous day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction and long trend. If the H1 fork falls, it is short. The larger time frame fork, can pull back the price.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - CadJpy H1 - Neutral baseAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: There is no valid H4 fork. Previous week's levels.
- Orange: There is no valid H1 fork. Previous day's levels.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- There is a neutral base but CadJpy falls on daily, weekly and monthly charts.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - AudJpy H1 - Neutral baseAnalysis
- Black: D1 trend long fork (between the median line and the lower parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (between the median line and the lower parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: There is no valid H1 fork. Previous day's levels.
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- There is a neutral base but AudJpy falls on daily, weekly and monthly charts
BABA - How About A Collar Trade?The green zone is long term support.
The Pitchfork projects path of price, on a Pendulum Swing basis.
The sliding parallel (white) marks the overshoot and projected support.
As we see, the steep down sloping yellow dotted resistance line was broken 5 weeks ago. But that's no reason to rush in. Why not wait for more facts?
Do we have facts now?
Yes, we have.
a) support at the sliding
b) today we see a close above the last high AND a break of the (grey horizontal) resistance.
How can we play this with low risk?
What about a Collar?
1. Buy Stock
2. Buy Put ATM
Optional:
- sell a longer dated Call (potentially limiting stock profit to finance the put)
- sell lesser Calls, to let the rest of the stock position ride, if price close ITM and calls away your (partial) position.
That's just an idea how to play it save.
Why save? What if BABA tanks?
- sell Put profit and buy more stocks to bring down the cost basis. Repeat until B/E or in profit. Additionally you can sell more Calls if they are above calculated cost basis.
Highest Risk: If the stock go to zero, then the initial investment of stocks is gone. Could it happen? Yes. High chance of happening? Don't think so.
Would love any input about this idea.
Happy weekend §8-)
CL - Crude Oil is respecting the Lower extremes ProjectionI've been often asked, how I choose the A/B/C Points when I apply a Pitchfork.
Just use context and learn the Swing rules.
Then you cannot go wrong, and you will get the correct information from the market when you throw a Pitchfork on the Chart.
Be open minded, but don't force your meaning to the market. The market is doing what he wants.
So, we look for a change in behavior.
Something obvious. FACTS.
Don't FOMO.
There's plenty for you, even if you miss a couple points or eve $s.
Let's put the stalking Hat on.
HOOD - Is someone loading the boat?We see the long base.
It looks like accumulation to me.
The Pitchforks L-MLH shows good support in the angle price is flowing.
Now that price climbed above the 200 D. MA, it's even more worth putting HOOD on the watch list, or even start to buying in.
In such situations, where it looks good, but no clear indication by my strategy fires, I reverse pyramid my position, for example like:
1. Buy = 50%
2. Buy = 25%
3. Buy = 12.5%
...and so on, until I have my full stake on the plate.
And of course I look for profit taking on the way up, selling 1., then 2. then 3. ....
And I always try to optimize with Options Strategies. So, what ever happens, I sleep like a Baby §8-)
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US30 H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (near the lower parallel)
- Red: There is no valid H4 fork. Pevious week's levels
- Orange: There is no valid H1 fork. Pevious day's levels
- Yellow: m15 short fork (lower parallel)
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short trend, long correction. If the m15 fork breaks, it is long. I'm expecting a sniping or banding.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - UsdJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (median line) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 long fork (over the lower parallel) and previous day's levels
- Yellow: m15 short fork (lower parallel)
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction and short trend. If the m15 fork breaks, it is long. Target is the top of the H1 short fork.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - EurJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median line and the lower parallel)
- Red: H4 short fork (median line) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (median line) and previous day's levels
- Yellow: m15 short fork broken
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction and long trend. If the H1 fork falls, it is long.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - CadJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (over the lower parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (lower parellel) and previous day's levels
- Yellow: m15 short fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short trend and long correction. If the m15 fork falls, it is long. Target the H1 fork top.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - AudJpy H1 - ShortAnalysis
- Black: D1 trend long fork (between the median line and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (median line) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (retests to the upper parallel) and previous day's levels. There is no valid H1 fork.
- Yellow: m15 short fork (retests to the lower parallel)
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines,
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Long correction and short trend. If the m15 fork breaks, it is long. Its target is the top of the forming H1 fork. Complicated opposite movements may occur.
NVDA - Key Bearish Factors
Hey traders! Today, I want to share my analysis on why I believe shorting NVDA could be a compelling opportunity.
1. Price at Upper Extreme: NVDA's price is currently at an upper extreme, indicated by the U-MLH of the Pitchfork. This suggests a potential reversal or correction.
2. Overhyped by AI News: NVDA may be overhyped by AI-related news, leading to excessive pricing based on future growth expectations.
3. Divergence in Indicators: Technical indicators are showing divergence, indicating a potential shift in NVDA's price trajectory.
My personal potential Targets:
a) the center line
b) the lower median-line parallel
Given the upcoming earnings, hedging is a crucial step in my trading strategy.
Thanks for any comments, rants and positive critics. §8-)
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - UsdJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 long forks (between the median and the upper parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 long fork (near the lower parallel) and previous day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines and Finonacci levels
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - EurJpy H1 - Neutral baseAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (median line)
- Red: There is no H4 fork (near the upper parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: There is no H1 fork (over upper parallel) and previous day's levels
Next move
- There is no valid fork. Red arrows short trend (maybe new short fork), green arrows long trend
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - CadJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 long fork (upper parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (between the median and the upper parallel) and previous day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short trend and long correction. If the fork falls, it is long.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - AudJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 trend long fork (median line)
- Red: H4 long fork (upper parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 short fork (near the median line) and previous day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines,
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
- Short correction and long trend. The rising move, after a false breakout, can widen. If it breaks, the trend is short.
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - US30 H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (between the median and the upper parallel)
- Red: H4 short fork (median line) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 fork (between the median and the lower parallel)
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested
Market Frequency - Kite Analysis - UsdJpy H1 - LongAnalysis
- Black: D1 long fork (median line)
- Red: H4 long forks (median and upper parallel) and previous week's levels
- Orange: H1 long fork (lower parallel) and previous day's levels
Next move
- Purple: H1 trendlines
- Blue: H1 levels to be retested