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Medianline

ES - S&P 500 rebound finish?After the P5 Low, we have a super nice count to the upside. Now we may have to face that the little party is over. Potential P5 is in and if it's true, we go down at least the the U-MLH. An opposite view is, that price will advance to the upside even more. If that's the case the potential to reach the second Warning-Line WL2 is baked in. The Stochastics faster is already in a overbought territory. Further down moves and increasing Volume would confirm the first coffee-ground reading. Let's observe.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
ES - S&P500 Fractal Coincidence?The Pattern: Sometimes it's too obvious to call it a coincidence. The Pitchforks: And as you can see, knowing how to use a tool can help to make intelligent decisions in trading. The short time-frame: The Pendulum Swing: The Trade: What if the trade fails? What if this fractal pattern is not playing out as expected? Then it just was a trade. Trading doesn't mean that current facts are an insurance for future outcome. And that's exactly why you have to know your tools and protect your money.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
ES - S&P 500 potential up-moveLast days where pretty crazy again. So let's dig in to the daily TF and see what the chart reviles us. We had the move down to P 5/0. From where we expect a new 0-5 wave up. Since price trades lower than P1, we can say that this guy is confirmed. From P1 price moves down, and up again. This is just another wave count in a lower TF, because we would need to see price trading lower than the lowest point from P1 down to where I drew the grey support line. That was accomplished barely with the few points lower at (2). So far we can't confirm P2. We would anyway need a higher high above P1. That means, A low is only confirmed when the HIGH is broken, P1. According to the Mini-Medianline, price tells us that we have to wait for a clear break of the U-MLH, the Upper-Medianline-Parallel. Today could be the day, as price opened outside the U-MLH, and as I write this, price finds support at the U-MLH. Another indication for an up-move are all the Wicks to the left, marking a support zone. All this Coffee Ground reading leads me to see a potential up-move is coming from today and next week, and it could be big.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
NatGas NG1! - Further Decline Ahead, P5 Possibly ReachedAllen Andrews gave us great rules. The P5 rule is one of them. As we see in the chart, P5 could be reached. What does this mean? It's an indication that price is at it's peak and a potential turn is ahead. Furthermore we have reached the center-line, where a) price will beak through, revisit and continues or b) price will turn and trade to the opposite direction, which would be far below at the L-MLH (the lower parallel). I like to wait for some kind of confirmation. One of these I have in my arsenal is the break of previous lower highs. You can see the short line in the chart, where I would start to take action. So, we have another LT chart to observe. Keep it in your watch list - it could be an epic play.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
ES1! - S&P 500 Target At P5If you followed the projections of the S&P 500, you where able see live, day by day, how the pitchfork/medianline tools and framework is applied to the markets. And more important, how we as trader can rely on these tools and rules. In the chart you see that the market swung up to create P4. It's really picture perfect so far. Now we approach P5. But know that we can't "predict" that a) P5 WILL happen for surre and b) WHERE it will be, before the market turns north again But we know that the probability is super high and we can expect P5 at least below P3. A nice gift from the trading god would be a pullback to the prior support which was broken yesterday. I always try to scale in, be it by futures, stocks and even options. However, I will be very opportunistic and (partially) out of the trade when the market is not trading within the rule-set. Stay focused and trade small, there will be plenty of opportunities in these markets. So there's absolutely nothing great in trying to be a hero.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
BTCUSD - Bitcoin approaching the CL. Potential for a bounce.The current target is still the center line of the pitchfork. From there we have a high probability to get at least a bounce. I would not expect a trend change, since BTC is clearly following the bear market. And why wouldn't it? BTC is a currency. People use it as a thing of barter the same way as with Fiat-Money. What ever you use to buy, it's value comes from people believing in it. So, if inflation starts to kick in (which it already has immensely) , the value of the "thing" ,be it BTC or Fiat, goes down. You have to pay more for the same goods as months before. So don't stick in the false believe that BTC MUST go up, just because it's BTC, because it could free people from Fiat, because it's hip etc. This is how I think and trade BTC. It's here to serve me, not the other way around. I have to make clever and thoughtful decisions if I trade it. Nobody is paying me for being a Hero, holding BTC to the bitter end. Instead we should follow the Pendulum that swings back and forth. Be wise, not opportunistic.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tr8dingN3rd