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Medianlinetrading

GOLD Reached it's Apex and is ready for a dumpIn my earlier posts I said that Gold has the potential to reach the U-MLH, which has become true. Up there, the price of Gold is stretched. Yes it can go up even more beyond the Upper-Medianline-Parallel. But the overall numbers of occurrences are small. So, at this natural stretch, price has a high probability to revert to the mean. And this is supported by the fact, that the overall indexes are heavenly oversold and already showing the signs of a pullback to the North (see my last NQ post). Why not just watch how it plays out, and make a decision for a trade after the FOMC, or even tomorrow. Don't rush into these unknowing situations. Be patient and wait for clear signs to take action.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Carvana - More Fish To Come? You Bet!After the first post about CVNA, I bailed out on a small loss (see linked Chart). But then Immediately loaded Puts and had a good "Steak & Lobster" time §8-) Price behaves like textbook when we consult the Medianlines trading framework and rule set. First price reached the red Centerline, followed by the expected pullback to the white Lower-Medianline-Parallel. If the "Fish" can't manage to jump back into the white Fork, then I expect much more downside to come. If this is the case, we have two good looking PTG's at PTG1 & PTG2. To me, this Scam Company (see my first post) is done. It's just a matter of time. For the longer time frame, I will check out ITM LEAP-Puts and let them profit from the ride to the south. And for short term trades, I just wait for pullbacks as it did now, and take it short to finance some of my LEAPs, Dinner and Weekend Holidays. Isn't it nice, how we can find good even in bad? §8-) May the Fish be with us!
NYSE:CVNAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
ETHUSD Cracked the longterm supportFirst there was the Double-Top. Then there was no higher close above the last 2 highs, pressing ETHUSD brutally down to fullfill the Medianlines Rule to reach the Center-Line over 80% of times. Then price not only reached the Center-Line by breaking through the slanted green support, but also cracked through the weekly horizontal Base (grey) which acted as the last support Bastion. There are two scenarios possible. a) a pullback, jump above the CL and we will see a moonshot. or b) price is retracing the Center-Line as it does most of the time after it's break, and then continues to the downside. Target would be the Lower-Medianline-Parallel.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
DAX - Bullseye! Next Act: The Decline?Whenever the markets are booming, whenever a gardener starts giving stock recommendations, it’s time to brace yourself… The German Dax has reached it's Centerline. It's back in Balance - Or has reached it's extreme, depending on how you look at it. Whenever this happens, we the Market a) turns and trades in the opposite direction towards the next LIne. In this case the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. or b) trades through it, most of the time comes back to it, and continues in the origianl direction, which in this case would be up. To me, this is the time to watch the DAX more closely. If you are a follower, you now that I have a Bias - which is not always helpful in my trading. But yes, I tend to lean to the short side. Specially in these over hyped, over invested times. So I stalk a short, but in the same time be open for a long after a confirmation on the daily time-frame. Let's see, let's be patient and don't listen to your gardener... 🌱👨‍🌾 🌿👩‍🌾
XETR:DAXShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPOT - My Mom Says I Have A short Bias...hmmm...Most of my Charts I analyze are currently showing a short setup. Mom says I'm shorting the whole world. hmmm... However, here's another one, just to keep the streak going. §8-) Spotify is at the U-MLH = At the upper extreme. The next natural move should be down to the Centerline. Since I have no magic wand to show me the Future, I lean on my stats and my experience. Shorting Spotify down to the Centerline or getting stopped out abve the U-MLH. Simple (...but not easy ;-) ) ...have to run, Mom calls for Dinner.
NYSE:SPOTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
NFLX - NetFlix is overhyped an TA says tooBesides what I think about NFLX (bad for you, poor quality & service, lairs etc.), there is something that can be used to rate and judge a Stocks pricing - The Technical Analysis. The white Fork projects the most probable path of price. The U-MLH is the upper stretch, the L-MLH the lower and the CL is the Center, where price is in equilibrium. Where is price now? It mooned to the upper Warning-Line! Such moves are insane, crazy, not healthy and produce by manipulation and/or greed that eats Brains. However - As I follow the rules of the Medianlines (Forks), I know that price is hyper extended up there. So, it can't go further? Of course it could. But Chances are poor that it will. Instead, Chances are high that price falls down to the U-MLH. At least. Why? Besides price is stretched, it failed to move up to the next Warning Line (WL2). So, there you have it. I'm shorting NFLX and my target is at least the U-MLH, with further downside potential with PTG2 at the Centerline.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
VRSN - VeriSign has reached it's upper extremeThe white up-sloping Fork gives us the most probable path of price for VRSN. As we see, that was a Hell of a run. Price has reached the U-MLH, which is the natural Extreme by the law of physics. What's the natural reaction? A move back to the Mean. What's the Mean? The Center-Line. This is a high probability trade I take blindly. But I mange my risk with open Eyes, even when this trade has a win rate of over 80%. Don't let greed your Brain!
NASDAQ:VRSNShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil – A $10 Short with a Valuable LessonThe price hit the Upper Median Line Handle (U-MLH) three times and was rejected each time (red circles). These were all high-potential short trade opportunities. However, none of these short trades managed to reach the Profit Target Goal (PTG) at the Center Line (CL). When the price repeatedly fails to hit the CL, it often builds up momentum for a larger move. The last short opportunity from the U-MLH was at Circle #3. If you missed it, you have another chance now. Breaking the "shelf" (the petrol support line) is just like breaking a Median Line or a Center Line. It’s not magic—though it may sometimes seem like it. The three slanted petrol lines extending to the right function the same way as a fork. So, we just broke the (petrol) Center Line, right? Now, where is the price likely to go after breaking this (petrol) Center Line? That’s right! There is about an 80% probability that it will move towards the (petrol) Lower Median Line Parallel. What a coincidence—it aligns exactly with the red Center Line! Of course, this is all based on probabilities, not guarantees. We can't predict the future, but we can rely on rules, statistics, and knowledge. I hope you learned something today. If you enjoy my work, I’d appreciate it if you like and share it with others. Have a great day! 😊
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
HIMS - The Full MonthyNo, no weed involved in this analysis. As I said before, sometimes chart analysis is simple. But sometimes we need to extend it, combining all our knowledge to find the facts. Let's see what we have here: 1. The white Fork. ...it's crazy, isn't it? ;-) It looks like I was looking to fit it somehow. But the truth can't be farther away. If you understand the principles behind this tool, WHAT it really measures, and what INFORMATION it really provides, then you get it, why this Fork is drawn like it is. For the non Forkers: a) Forks measure extremes, cut swings in upper, lower extremes and show where the center is. b) they project the most probable path of price. The A-Point was the old high. The B-Point was the lowest low. The C-Point is, where we had the last low, after the High was breached. So, in essence, it's a very stretched Pullback-Fork. 2. The slanted grey lines: They just bring the natural Swings to light, and project them into the future. That's it. I'm not going into the the minor drawings here, since they are self explaining. Just give yourself a little bit time, watch the Chart from a distance, and let your thoughts flow. Any trades here? Let's observe and trade from one extreme to the Center and beyond...
NYSE:HIMSLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
DJI - Dow Jones Industrial Target 40000sChart analysis can be simple. We take our tools, surround them with rules and follow them. The rules and the framework of the Medianlines are simple, but not easy to follow every time. The Shiff-Fork catches the resistance and support very nicely. Especially at the Center-Line. Above the Upper-Medianline-Parallel, at the extreme where the stretch became clear, price had a job to to do, to trade up to the Warning Line. But it failed twice so far. When price fails to trade to the next line, comes back into the Fork, Chances are >90% that we go to the Center-Line. The first time, it failed (10% fail). The second time, with these market sentiment, I'm even more convinced to follow the rules. Target at the Center-Line around 40'000ish.
TVC:DJIShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
RUT - Russle signals a drop to 1900ishThe white Pitchfork was guiding us to the Center-Line. As so often, price is turning at this level, just to reach the opposite side. It's the same game every time. Just follow the rules, apply a good risk and money management. The down-sloping red Fork projects the current most probably path of price to the downside. And of course our profit target, which is the red Center-Line. The signal is the break, the close below the shelf, the tiny support, marked by the petrol horizontal line. Trade wisely, trade without attaching your emotions. It just is what it is, whatever the outcome will be. Knowing this, you can embrace inner freedom in trading.
TVC:RUTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
NVDA - Back again, now down again?The pattern seems to repeat. Again, we had a HAGOPIAN, which sais, that price goes back more than from where it came, and this rule was right. Up in here, I'm not that confident anymore that price will reach the Centerline. But, it's not about what I think, or how confident I'm are. I just have to follow my Strategy and act according to the Rules, the trading framework of the Medianlines. That said, we either shoot up on earnings, or we definitely tank down. For now, there is no trade, only a Gamble. I rarely gamble, so I'll sit on the sidelines and let it happen whatever will come out on earnings. As for a Lotto-Ticket, I would buy some Puts and just have fun to watch how they get burned, or how I get a Christmas Moment in the beginning of the new year §8-)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
2