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Medianlinetrading

Coffee KC - Why I see $390 and $470 as possibleThe Medianlines project the most probable path of price. It's not a fortunetelling tool. It's a technical tool which is based on serious statistical research. So, what I do when I use it is, using statistical proven evidence on a graphical basis, supported by a definite trading framework. Why do I pound on these information? Because it's important to understand what Medianlines aka Pitchforks are based off, and what they are good for in trading. No "Magic", just a tool that helps a trader/TA in it's daily Job. ANALYSIS OF COFFEE The up-sloping white Fork shows us the most probable path of price. It's up. Price blew through the Center-Line, found support, and advanced even more to the upside from there. Then we have the slanted yellow dashed lines. What are they? Many say this is a action/reaction thingy. Others say, it's a timing tool. I say, it's both. The way I use it, it takes in the angle from the last real high, and the low of the pullback from it. Then I go back to the last low before the new high. This creates an Angle, and a width. Combined it gives us not only a potential timing, but with the dynamic of price movement also potential resistance/support. So, we can see where we got such signals - where the orange circles are. The second one intersects very nicely with the Center-Line of the white Fork. I observe this "incident" often when I use them. Back to Coffee...BRB §8-) We see the time/price line intersecting with the 1/4 line of the Fork. I expect a reaction there - even a pullback back to the Center-Line is possible from there. But if price also blows through this level, then I know that the next Target will be the Upper-Medianline-Parallel. So, there we have it. I hope you can take away some knowledge from this post and thanks for all the boosting and following folks.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
5
MSTR - Back to a new short levelAfter hitting Profit Target 1 (PTG1), it’s time to make a decision about the remaining position. The fact is, MSTR tested the 1/4 level for the second time and found solid support there. Now we’ve moved higher, back to the centerline. For me, it’s clear: if we get an Open and Close — a full bar — above the CL, I’ll close the rest of my short position. I still think MSTR is heavily manipulated. Besides the fact that this Bitcoin catalyst isn’t following BTC’s moves the way it should, it’s cheating investors for profits. That said — if there’s weakness, I’ll continue building the position. If I had no position, this is the place where I would open it on a Short trigger. If there’s strength, I’ll close it.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
3
RUT - Russel is in a similar "Dump" patternIn 2021 we saw the Russel creating this Dump Pattern: 1. Sideways 2. Break the high 3. Dump Watch how it looks now. To me it's very, very similar. Any other confirming signals? Yes! Price reached the white Center-Line and started to go south. Here's my game plan: If the weekly TB is broken on a close, and an Open is below the TB afterwards, I'm looking for a short entry. PTG1 is at the red Center-Line and a runner with a definite PTG2 at the green support line. My weapons will be the Options, not the Futures. It gives me much more leeway and freedom of flexibility.
TVC:RUTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
MSTR keeps digging its own grave.Well, since my last post about MSTR, the trolls have been having a field day. What a blast! §8-) I stand by my previous post about MSTR because, honestly, I see no future in this SCAM. Especially now that Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a deep pullback (see my last post about Bitcoin for more). So, what do we have here? MSTR broke through the centerline and tried to claw its way back up. Then came the decisive breakdown. An open and close below the centerline paved the way for a trip south. Thanks to more hype and yadda-yadda reports, we saw a pullback up to the centerline — which, by the way, was perfectly in line with the trading framework of forks. But after that failed pullback, the price went the other way, and MSTR has been digging its way further south. For those who took profits at the 1/4 line, you can now look forward to PTG2 with confidence. Or, if you’re convinced that MSTR is headed for a reckoning with regulators in the medium term (although that seems doubtful since they all seem to be napping...), you might consider doubling down on your short position. Wishing everyone a profitable and exciting new trading week!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside. It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1. But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher. And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move. If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%. Just create a plan and follow it.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
Nasdaq under pressure and aims for 18'400NQ is being pushed down, and a rebound doesn’t seem possible at the moment. There are some fundamental factors supporting this weakness. However, as a chart analyst, I focus on the signals within the chart itself. What I see is a possible target around 18,400, which aligns with the L-MLH. With the weakness of the MAG7, the Nasdaq is unlikely to make further gains. The options are sideways or down. The latter is what I trade according to the rulebook.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
DV - Good reasons to go longI like a clean movement of price. Certainly this is the case in $DV. What I like the most is the behavior at the Accumulation Zone. In my Video I go over this in detail and explain how one could also play it with Options. If things go the wrong way, you could even morph it into a new Strategy. Reasons to buy: - Accumulation Zone held - Rising Volume / Doubled since Oct. - CIB (Change In Behavior broken - Vol. Profile: HVN@Acummul. Zone - 80% Chance to the Center-Line Consideration: - wait for a Pull-Back to Buy and/or Sell Options to get assigned to go Long and capture Premium too. Stop/Loss: - Full body Candle Open/Close below A. Zone if long the Underlying - With Options: Start Wheel Strategy
NYSE:DVLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
CHPT - My Lotto-Ticket for ChristmasRule Nr. 1: Take it with a grain of Salt! ;-) OK, it's probably a Lotto Ticket. But IMO one with a monstrous chance of 80% if price trades within the Pitchfork. As we now, price has a 80% chance to reach the Center-Line. So, it's a Lotto Ticket with a good RIsk to Reward. Nothing more, nothing less. I'm in CHPT since over 1 year and got clapped. Ever since I was watching for any sign of a potential recovery. Nothing was showing on my radar. But now, I see a Volume that reminds me of a "Final Puke". Everyone who was long has to be scared out, before the Whales step in. Whales only buy Food for cheap. Is it cheap now? Depends on how you look at CHPT. Technically, I would say yes. Fundamentally I would say it's probably crap? Here's what I get from my fundamental Screener: "Overall CHPT gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. We evaluated CHPT against 88 industry peers in the Electrical Equipment industry. Both the profitability and financial health of CHPT have multiple concerns. CHPT is valued quite expensive... ....but it does show an excellent growth." This last bit of the fundamental evaluation tells me, it's not dead yet. And who knows what they have in their back to recover? (SECULATION!!!). The Mansfield Indicator is clearly showing, that this Stock is way weaker than the S&P500. BUT - It starts to curl up... I have no clue what this Analysis is worth it. But I know what I see in the Volume and the recent Weeks drop. So, that's it for my Coffee-Ground reading. I am long the Stock, and I love the thrill it gives me for a cheap Lotto Ticket to a potential 1000% trade §8-) What ever you do with it, I'm not responsible. This is no trading advice. You will loose money! Don't follow my Analysis. It's all BS and Coffee-Ground reading with no profound reasoning §8-) Happy Christmas...oh, it's too soon...
NYSE:CHPTLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
22
Why I Buy MacDonalds With Both HandsMCD tanked impressively lately. I had no clue why. Then I checked the News, which I very rarely do. There was one article that made absolutely no sense to me: "Concerns about weight-loss drugs: There are some concerns that the growing popularity of weight-loss drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, could take away demand from food companies like McDonald's." To me, this writer has inverse Logic. Why? Because if I would love the (crappy) MCD Food, and I could just take a Pill and loose weight, I would probably eat more at MCD. However, I buy with both hands since MCD is a the Center-Line of this Pull-Back Fork, as soon I have some indication. (Heads Up: Earnings ahead!) And remember: You can buy, even when you sell (...hint: Puts). It's the Buffet way. If price close in the money at end of DTE, you got the Put's premium, AND the Stock for a way cheaper price. If price is closing out of the money after DTE, you keep the premium....double Whopper §8-) Away for a healthy Burger at $MyOneKitchen.
NYSE:MCDLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
NASDAQ - NQ Black-Swan ScenarioThe Red Pitchfork is a Pendulum-Fork. It grabs the biggest Swings and projects the most probable path of price, like in this chart. The Count starts at P0 and relies on the REAL Swings that I teach you guys & gals. Therefore the Bump from the green Support-Line is NOT a Up-Swing. It's just the center part of a Sine-Wave. Then P3 is created, breaking the Support from the Low of P1, and continues up to the Center-Line of the Orange Pitchfork at P4. Since we know that a) price has a high chance to turn in the opposite direction after reaching the Center-Line AND b) The Pivot Count ends and restarts at P5 AND c) Price is still trading within the Red Pendulum-Fork ...we have a 80% Chance to reach the Center-Line of the Pendulum Fork around 1100 or even lower. By when? No clue yet, but have to drink another Coffee to read in the Ground again later §8-) OK, I admit, that's a kind of a Black-Swan event. But, I just follow my rules, my Framework and that is what I currently see. The opposite side of this is, that the 0-3/5 Count is just a simple "Flag", and price Skyrockets to the green Center-Line of the Green Fork, around 16050 - 16250, Taking the overall World situation, the incredible debt of countries like the USA, EU and others into the Blue-Print, I vote for the first scenario. My Helmet sits tight. Peace4TheWorld!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
27
SPY - S&P500 - ES: Beware of the reactionDid you made some NYSE:S too following my posts? Great. But... ...now is the time to beware of the slingshot. See, price has fallen quite nicely and we are all happy campers. Now we have to defend our short position, the ground we gained. And here's why: Although price still trades within the red down-sloping Fork, there are some signs that, soon price has reached it's Max-Stretch, which is when P5/0 is in. Could be at the sliding parallel below the Center-Line, or if a little panic hit's the Market, at the L-MLH. From there, the swing count start new, but this time to the upside. We know that if price zoomed through a Center-Line, the potential for a pullback to it is a given fact. From there, price could continue to the downside, or jumps above it and closes above it. That will be a very obvious sign that price has turned to the upside-swing again. Facts: 1. Price has reached the red CL 2. RSI is oversold 3. P5 could be in 4. POC of the Volume-Profile acts as Support On the Weekly picture, price still has a long way to go, until it reaches the Center-Line of the Pendulum-Swing Fork. At the time of this writing about another 400 Points, to 3800/3750. For now, just be alert to protect your profits. Remember: You can't always eat the whole Cake! Better letting the S&P500 reload and then shoot from higher levels again and give our self another Christmas Gift. §8-) Peace4TheWorld
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
MNST - Monster with a monstrous drop?Nah, not monstrous, but a drop maybe. What do we have in this chart? The up-sloping Fork projects the most probable path that price takes. So, it's up, until price is falling out of the Pitchfork. Next, the A/R or Action/Reaction lines (slight blue). All they do is measure a pullback action and project the corresponding reaction. As we see, the A/R line above the last high is not touching price, but it gives kind of a resistance to price. Then we have price itself: A huge bunching is happening up there. And, price crossed below the Center-line a couple weeks ago and is currently trading below it, with support of the EMA(30). So we land at the Indicators and Oscillators: The MACD crossed negative weeks ago. And this time the negative indication is longer than the last two times. The Mansfield Indicator shows weakness compared to the S&P500, and the RSI has taken a dive weeks ago. All this leads me to believe that we see bigger correction in MNST. Maybe not a monstrous one, but a correction down to the L-MLH. Play it save if and don't let greed eat your brain §8-)
NASDAQ:MNSTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
3