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USD/JPY DAILY ANALYSIS (MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK)Looks like we are going to close the day breaking through some key resistance levels. A 100% Expansion of Aug lows to Sep highs back to Sep lows and the top of a rising channel. This is also after a breakout in Oct of a descending trend line that's been resistance for all of 2016. Also we are above the 100 DMA and RSI just closed above 60 showing bullish momentum for the first time in 2016. Over all bias is bullish and can see resistance at 106 and 107 but we do have room to run to the 200 DMA which sits just above 107 that will be a key level of resistance.
Long
by stephenleachman
EUR/USD DAILY ANALYSIS (BEARISH STRUCTURE - BULLISH MOMENTUM)I haven't traded the Euro - Dollar much this year, mainly because it doesn't have a longer term trend to it. We are still in a consolidation from the descent from 2014 to the middle of last year 2015. So far this year price hasnt broke the desember lows 1.05168 which would give more conviction on its longer term down trend continuation. 2016 Open and set a range in january which broke to the upside in the beginning in february. Price then retraced back to the Open at the end of march and in the beginning of april price made another run to the upside. This is the 2016 Bullish opening range break. Then on May 3erd price pierced through the October Highs made its way to 1.1616 before reversing and closing below the October high @1.1495. Since then we've been In a downward trend and now we just bounced off the 2016 opening range high. From our current price @1.0775 The EUR/USD is only up 0.15 Percent on the year. If the Euro wants to stay positive for the year against the dollar its going to have to hold the brexit spike low @1.09115 this is also a 100% Fib extension from the 2016 high to May's low back up to the high in June. My longer term bearish invalidation level is set @1.1188 this is also a 50% retracement of the High to low of 6/20 brexit We also have some trend line resistance a little passed that level to get through before I get to bullish in the long term. Note: Still in a consolidation of the descent of 2014 - 2015 (Long term bearish trend) 2016 has been trading in between the highs of Oct 2015 @1.1495 and the lows of Dec 2015 @1.05168. Broke trend line support going back to Dec 2015 and tagged it as resistance earlier this month Jul. Brexit spike low @1.0911 also 100% Fib extension from high of 2016 to the low in may to the high in June. July been in a descending channel consolidation of the brexit. Price retraced 50% of the brexit day which is now my long term bearish invalidation level @1.1188 Price is just above the 2016 open. the Euro is only 0.15% higher against the Dollar. Daily RSI has been bullish for 2016 (Above 60 and above 40) brexit close RSI held 40 and the 22end held 40 putting in divergence (Still bullish momentum) Watching daily RSI to break trend line and 50 confirming bullish momentum. The daily ichimoku is bearish with the KS @1.11692 just below my bearish invalidation level. Price close and is now trading above Tenkan - Sen. Daily ichimoku chart:
Short
by stephenleachman
2
USD/JPY DAILY ANALYSIS (THE WEEK AHEAD)last week We made a big move to the downside, the week opened @106.118 and closed @102.010 Leaving the Yen 410 Pip stronger against the USDollar. Last week's move was do to the BOJ disappointment. The market was expecting a larger stimulus then what was announced with the BOJ only doubling its ETF purchases to 6 Trillion from a previous 3.3 trillion Yen. They left rates unchanged and didn't expand bond purchases. Rather governor kuroda sad that the BOJ will assess how negative rates has impacted the economy in the next meeting in september. Septembers meeting will be very important and we will probably see a lot of volatility in the Yen from now until then. Despite Kuroda saying there's still room to cut rates further, The market thinks that the BOJ has run out of options. We shall see but as for now I need to point out how the fundamentals and technicals worked hand and hand together. On 7/21 there was a daily reversal at trendline resistance this was after a strong rally from july's lows @99.98 There was nothing fundamentally driving that really just some good US data at that time but if we look across the Yen pairs we could see Yen weakness. In my opinion there looks to be a shift of risk sentiment in the markets that of course has nothing to do with the BOJ. most of this year we have witnessed a risk off sentiment but if we look at the S&P 500 and other global indexes making all time highs could we be gearing up to shift into a risk on market. Keep in mind that the major 2016 Event risks has passed and investors will be looking to put there money to work, Meaning moving it from the safe haven assets to more riskier higher yielding ones. I don't know if the Yen bulls are done we very well could see a push back down to 100 but I will be watching for a longer term reversal from these levels and I have a monthly chart that supports my thought of a reversal which I will publish. We could also see some profit taking or consolidation of last weeks move. Note: We are just above a 76.4 fibonacci retracement of last month's low to high. Will be watching today's close. If price closes positive then we will have a RSI 40 Hold could be indicative of bullish momentum. I will watch for a reversal candle on today's close. I will wait for the days close to determining a directional bias for the week
by stephenleachman
3
MY USD/JPY DAILY ANALYSIS (THE WEEK AHEAD)I first would like to thank all who have came over to my tradingview profile and liked or followed. I also want to extend my personal thanks to Ichimoku_Trader who brought my publications to a good percent of you. I'm new to the whole social trading so please bear with me on my response time with the messages, I'm not a teacher nor an educator I'm a trader. I have been inspired by your likes to publish more often and would like to start with some of my trade ideas that I personly will be trading. I will be focusing on the Yen pairs this week as we await the BOJ rate decision thursday the 28th. I will be watching closely for Japan's Export and trade balance numbers tonight at 19:00 EST for an early indication of whether the BOJ will do nothing or implement some form of additional easing, whether it be through more asset purchases or a rate cut The market is expecting Kuroda to add further easing so if he did nothing or hinted for a later time then that should have a stronger effect on the Yen then if he took action. As for the FED they announce their rate decision this week Wednesday the 27th the market is not expecting a rate hike but keep in mind that Yellen said her last meeting that "every meeting is live" where as in the past it was really considered that only meeting followed by press conference where live. My plan for Dollar/Yen: Looking for short opportunities below last week's highs @107.494 Bearish invalidation level. Looking for price to drop down into the 50 or 618 fibonacci retracement @ 103.72 - 102.83 I'm going to be watching for a Longer term bullish trend reversal that could lead up to 116.00 due to fundamentals.
Short
by stephenleachman
4