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Mediumterm

USDCAD: Rise To FallUSDCAD is currently in an ascending channel, mostly due to falling oil prices and positive US jobs data. I believe we might see further gains tomorrow, but the exchange rate should fall in the medium term. Here are the main reasons: 1) At the moment, CL1! is at the lower limit of a multi-week descending channel. Indicators show it is oversold, so it will likely rise in the following days, pushing USDCAD down. 2) USDCAD is close to a multi-day resistance, and its relative volatility index (RVI) is close to 80, indicating a possible retracement. My strategy for this trade will be the following: If USDCAD shows bullishness, wait until resistance is reached. If it cannot break it, short (at about 1.3080), with a stop loss just above the resistance (at about 1.3100, for a loss of 20 pips), with target at 1.2980 (profit of 100 pips). Short if USDCAD shows strong bearishness, with same target and stop loss just above breakeven (~13045).
Short
by lucapoia
NZDUSD Hitting ResistanceNZD/USD made extraordinary gains despite signs of strengthening in the US economy from the positive non-farm payrolls report. This may be attributed to two facts: 1) Although extraordinary, the June report was an outlier, especially when compared to the disastrous May report, and may not reflect actual US economic conditions. 2) The New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) decided to maintain interest rates at 2.25%. Despite that, I believe NZD/USD will be heading down. First, the fundamentals: - The RBNZ decision was already expected. Moreover, in his statement, RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler made it very clear that the exchange rate is too high, and rate cuts are not out of table: "The exchange rate is higher than appropriate given New Zealand’s low export commodity prices. Together with weak overseas inflation, this is holding down tradables inflation. A lower New Zealand dollar would raise tradables inflation and assist the tradables sector." "Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative . Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data. " - Is this a cue that there will be indirect interventions on the exchange rate? Maybe. - Though the US payrolls report may not indicate a real strengthening of the American economy, it at least does not shows a weakening of conditions, so it does not justify a rise in the exchange rate. Now, for the technical analysis: - At the moment NZD/USD has hit a multi-week resistance level, and it doesn't seem likely that is going to break it. The last time this happened was during the crazy Brexit volatily period, and it quickly fell after that. - The relative volatility (using 10 periods) is almost 80, indicating a high probability of a drop. - The MACD itself has reached a resistance, so we may see a drop from here on, maybe slowly at first, but gradually gaining momentum. My setup will be the following: Sell Breakout of secondary resistance (about 0.7270) Stop Loss at 0.7311 ( 41 pips loss) Cover if any fib level is strongly rejected (a trailing stop of 30 pips might do). Long-term Target: 0.7115 ( 145 pips gain )
Short
by lucapoia
Crude oil - buy grey Gartely, sell blue GartelyTechnicals Here we have a Gartely pattern (shaded grey) that suggests a mid-term rebound. From the blue Gartely pattern, we can expect this rebound to last into the $36/37 region, where we can then short the market due to this bearish pattern. Fundamentals The oil market is in quite a confused state at the moment. Supply and demand dynamics suggest no return to a bullish market any time soon, however we are beginning to see a major consolidation, supported by that fact that any major additions to the oil glut could already be priced in. The average price for crude oil is also expected to be in the $40 to $50 region. For this reason I expect more consolidation, which is why a bullish Gartely leading straight into a bearish Gartely is completely reasonable.
FX:USOIL
by olly_price
This industry is primed to suffer more than any other.The chart above shows assorted real estate stocks, they aren't cherry picked and were random (except RAIT Financial), but you can see the trend. Get the hell out of real estate. Seriously if you have any real estate or RAIT stocks it is a great time to sell. This housing market has gone nuts from the years of 0%. Rental vacancy rates are at a 30 year low and rental prices are through the roof (pardon the pun), with houses that would have a $700 mortgage going for $1200+ with ease. Housing prices are way up too and are around pre-crisis levels. NO I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS ANOTHER HOUSING BUBBLE. I'm not stupid, c'mon. Real estate stocks certainly haven't gone crazy in recent years, given residual investor uneasiness about the sector. However, many symbols have made some nice gains since '08 and they are going to get hammered. As you can see on the chart all these symbols are RAITs and real estate and they are sliding already. A rate hike, even if the FOMC says it's only .01%, will be seen as the start of higher interest rates and thus a decrease in home sales. So get some put options on the sector, I'd say go 4-12 months out with strikes 15%+ lower than last price, it'll pay off. Even if Yellen announces no rate hike in Dec., everyone thinks it's coming, and that's all it takes. The housing market really does need it though, prices are getting a bit too high and rental prices are insane high. Also, don't confuse real estate stocks and bank/financial stocks, banks will benefit from the rate hike (increased lending and profits from interest).
RShort
by RyanMartin
1
AUDNZD medium termAs the fundamental situation is changing I am looking to join the new up trend building. RBNZ last year was rising rate and now they are thinking to cut, on the other hand RBA after the last cut is becoming more neutral. Technically this cross has made a new higher high coming from an all time low, at the moment it looks too stretched and in need of a technical retracement. At the end of the retracement I'll be a buyer. I'll try to buy as low as possible to be able to place my stop loss below the all time low and keep my R:R higher than 1:1
Long
by DoNotFolloWmE
5
Another crossroads for the medium term trendLooking at a 60m chart, we can see a lot of resistance at the $235 area, so I think the price will at least retrace that far, then we will have to look for signs of either a bullish trend break or a continuation. The short term trendline looks very steep and is bound to be broken soon, but whether the bulls can hold this trend depends on the intersection between the medium term bear trend and $235 resistance. I'm testing a small long position right now, but this is certainly not guaranteed to be a big move, so it may be best to wait and see if the medium term bear is respected.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MoonTrader