ETH MEGABULL (ETHUSD COINBASE)The last ETH Megabull idea I did was in ETHBTC, but I've since switched to the USD pair. I wanted to get the gan fan out and see where ETH is headed in the long term. I believe ETH should be moving in this pink zone for a majority of its longterm uptrend. I will post soon with some possible elliot waves and more fibonacci.
Megabull
Potential Next Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - August 2017Here is my update on the current impending Bitcoin Megabull Cycle. Annotations are on chart! As you all of you know by now, we had a spot on beautiful megabull rally as I had anticipated back then:
That's until the PBOC and Chinese Exchanges insiders killed the rally as the Bank of China performed investigations on the corrupted Chinese exchanges. It is obvious that these exchanges were all aware of this announcement by PBOC several days before the public did while the megabull or bull-run was ongoing and close to the ATH. Hence the Chinese exchanges orchestrated the brutal sell off of Bitcoin from $1165 down to $750 USD (and on top of margin calls galore).
However, the good news lately is that the PBOC has successfully put an end to the illegal insider trading, wash trading of volume, ZERO fees, No KYC informcements, by regulating all the Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges (which is a very good move and step forward for Bitcoin acceptance as a digital currency). Chinese volume across the exchanges went from accounting 90% of the volume to a mere 10 - 6%.
However, this was still a setback to Bitcoin's longtime due bullrun and adoption. But now as we are nearing the Winklevoss ETF on March 11 2017, we could be due for:
1. Another attempt to break out to a new ATH (NOT illustrated here) past $1170 if the Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC. If approved we are looking at the $1776-1627 range as the target .
2. Otherwise if the Bitcoin ETF is denied, we will revisit the bottom of the longterm bullish ascending triangle from 2016 and 2015 at roughly $850-830 . If we do get to this point, please place a stoploss around $800.
3. As the worst case scenario for the megabull , if the bottom of the ascending triangle holds at $830-850, it is very likely that we will repeat the January 2016 pattern and consolidate for several weeks within the triangle before revisiting the top in June at $1170-1140. From there we will consolidate for 36 days before resuming the megabull early August 2017.
It is very important to know that this analysis is based on the old 235 Days Bitcoin Cycle which is still alive until proven NULL. Based on this cycle, Bitcoin will reach the final "ATH" (All Time High) on October 6 2017 (so make sure you sell Bitcoin and close your longs on or few days prior)
The Potential "ATH" Targets for the megabull are:
$1,630 USD
$1,777 USD
$2,800 USD
$4,174 USD
The final "ATH" target on October 6 2017 depends on how steep (slope) the uptrend is**
** I will re-evaluate the chart and targets during the megabull and provide an update on a possible final target
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Bitcoin Short Term Bearish Descending Wedge - Target $660 USDThis is for my followers, a quick chart to draw a clear picture of this irrational market that killed the megabull and started this nonstop sell-off due to the PBOC imposing regulations on Chinese exchanges to stop illegal insider activities, wash trading and any other form of elicit activities that have been plaguing the exchanges etc.
It was pretty clear that exchange insiders were aware of the PBOC incoming announcement (before it was announced publicly to us) and hence they started the sell off after breaking the ATH on Chinese exchanges. We can hope that the PBOC's exchange regulations will finally put an end at these years of illegal activities so Bitcoin can really start to shine with less manipulation.
Levels (support and resistance) on chart depicting a simple descending wedge.
Short-term: Expecting some more chop/sideways short-term then a quick retest of $680-650. That dotted yellow line represents the old major bull neckline of 2015 (very important for it to hold else we will have bearish repercussion long-term). Once we hit $680-660 I forecast that the 1D RSI will be roughly around 23-27 in the oversold area which represent my perfect buying opportunity indicator as you know.
Long-term: Expect to bottom at $660s roughly. By year end around October, 8 2017 (235D Cycle) I expect a retest of the ATH if not higher targets ($1500 or $2000)
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Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - Starts in Less than 24 HoursNote: The chart after publishing narrowed done the annotations. Press "+" to zoom in and see the chart as it meant to be seen.
Here is my update on the current impending Bitcoin Megabull Cycle. Annotations are on chart!
The breakout day as I pointed a month ago is on December 7-8, the fractal I have been using is on par with that thinking. If you have been following me on twitter, I have pointed that the fractal last mini handle we currently are in is close to completion and the current Bitcoin market overlaps beautifully with the blue bars of the fractal. Please set a stop loss at the 1D Bollinger Band Midband currently at 5260cny or $745 USD in case this trade fails for any reason
From there we will be able to continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". Once we hit $1,137 USD (previous ATH), Bitcoin will exponentially rally higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market. We are already seeing Bitcoin adoption in several worldwide countries: Venezuela, Africa, India due to failing fiat economies due to inflation and other issues.
It is very important to know as a trader that based on the 235 Days Bitcoin cycle, Bitcoin will reach the final ATH / Top on February 16 2017 (so make sure you sell Bitcoin and close your longs on or few days prior)
Potential ATH Targets are:
$2,661 USD
$4,200 USD
$5,276 USD
$8,720 USD
$14,000 USD
The final ATH target on February 16 2017 depends on how steep (slope) the uptrend is**
** I will re-evaluate the chart and targets during the megabull and provide an update on a possible final target
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Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - Resumes December 7-8My last few charts failed to pinpoint the exact Bitcoin top. Their were several potential tops at $680, $715, $750-760 to consider from. In the end Bitcoin formed the exact ascending triangle(s) we had seen in the $465 - $360 range. This pattern is not new for Bitcoin, as a matter of fact, the same ascending triangle pattern formed prior to the Megabull of 2012 after reaching a top at $14 as seen in this chart:
Back to the current setup if you choose to take it: Bitcoin hit $750 roughly on November 2nd on all exchanges forming another ascending triangle, and it started consolidating for 36 days in a wide range of $765 - $650.
The expected break out date and start of the Megabull rally is: December 7-8 2016
From there we will be able to continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". If we manage to hit $1100 Bitcoin could get higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market.
Conservative targets are: $1,150, $2,800
Medium targets: $4,200, $8,800 per Bitcoin
Extremely high volatile targets: $10,000 - 15,000
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The Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - Delayed till Dec 2016 to Feb 2017This is a zoomed in 1D chart picking up on my previous Trading View chart of the Bitcoin Megabull Cycle which failed due to the unpredictable Bitfinex hack. On my previous chart we were supposed to bounce at $595 roughly and consolidate a bit further before attempting to retest $790 in September. However, the Bitfinex 70 million USD Dollar hack coupled with insiders shorters on all the exchanges brought the Bitcoin Market down on its knees with a retest of the previous old top @ $470 which we advised our followers on twitter to rebuy at as it was our oversold 1D target . $470 was the real bottom and it might not get revisited ever again unless the ascending yellow triangle side gets violated (see chart) which will result in a potential beginning of a bear market (unlikely currently).
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in the yellow outlined ascending triangle between $650 and $550 but pending a retest of previous support turning resistance at $650. Once $650 we have two potential scenarios that can happen:
(A) Most likely scenario - Seen in YELLOW on chart: After hitting $650 Bitcoin will drop back to $650-660 area to double bottom and resume the Bitcoin Megabull cycle to retest $790.
(B) Less likely scenario - Seen in RED on chart: Once $650 gets hit, Bitcoin will continue past that resistance after consolidating further (continuing the Megabull cycle) and retest $790.
In any of the two scenarios the outcome is still a retest of $790 in the end. Once $790 top gets hit (it could be also a bit lower e.g. $750) based on previous megabull Bitcoin cycles; BTC will consolidate in a wide range of $790 to $705 for 36 days (note the yellow triangle) before resuming the Megabull rally towards a new ATH (All Time High) target.
Tip: The deadline for the megabull cycle to resume is very important, we must resume the cycle before end of February 2017 otherwise we breakdown of the big ascending triangle and bear market ensue/starts again.
From there we will be able to continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". If we manage to hit $1100 Bitcoin could get higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market.
My conservative targets are: $1150, $2800 and $10,000 to $15,000 per Bitcoin
The current fractal maximum potential target is: $10,000 - 15,000
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The Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - To the Moon (Zoomed in Chart)This is a zoomed in 1D chart of my previous Trading View chart of the Bitcoin Megabull Cycle based on the fractal of 2012-2013. It was spot on so far until that additional leg to $780 probably due to that short squeeze that started on Okcoin Futures.
Bitcoin blew past $650-680 and we continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". If we manage to hit $1000 Bitcoin could get higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market. Google Trends already shows accrued interest as seen in this chart: prntscr.com but still not parabolic interest (so there must be more room to moon imo)
My conservative targets are: $840-$950 or $1170 and $3000+
The current fractal potential target is: $10000 - 9000
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Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle - To the MoonAfter rearranging the fractal and aligning it properly with our current triangle we can see that we broke out and blew past $470 last resistance.
The accumulation being over, and no sellers/bears to be found anymore, we are now heading towards $650-680 and maybe way higher as we continue the megabull cycle to the "moon".
From there we have several potential targets but the fractal goes to $8100 per BTC .
My conservative targets are: $680-700 and $1200-950 and $2500
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Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle - Break Out!Hey All,
We finally broke up of this long boring triangle as seen here in this zoom out of the current chart:
Bulls:
After rearranging the fractal and aligning it properly with our current triangle we can see that we broke out and blew past $435 resistance.
The accumulation being over, and no sellers/bears to be found anymore, we are not heading towards $452-460 initially from which we will go down from to retest $435-440 and confirm it as support on the 4H for the bulls to continue the megabull cycle to the "moon".
From there we have several potential targets but the fractal goes to $8100 per BTC.
My more conservative targets are: $680-700 and $1200-950 and $2500
Bears:
Nothing for the bears right now unless we break down under $420. I recommend to put your stop loss at $415 just in case. If I see a change I will first post on my twitter account and then follow up with a new chart on Trading View.
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Other Fractal Charts I am working on:
Break Out turning into another Pump Similar to October 2015This is a self-explanatory chart. Assuming that we continue to pump similary to the pump from the early $200s to $500. It is pertinent to note that the consolidation phase has been extremely similar to now.
Current final target for this fractal is: $720-680
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Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle - Update 2Hey all, I have been pretty busy lately and found the time to give you all an update! After visiting $445 we revisited the bottom of the triangle at $400-405 which strongly held as no sellers were to be found to take us to $320. Bears failed and Bulls won that last round. Which leads us to a big potential for the megabull cycle to occur on March 25-27th as we make our way to $435 (top of triangle).
Bulls:
After rearranging the fractal and aligning it properly with our current triangle we can see that were spot on the last pump within the triangle before we break out of the triangle. Initial top of triangle is $435 on Bitfinex and if all goes to plan we will blow past it to $450-448 then go back down to retest $426-421 before the megabull picks up steam and moons.
From there we have several potential targets but the fractal goes to $8100 per BTC which I find exaggerated.
My more conservative targets are: $680-700 and $900-850 and $1500 and $2500
Bears:
For now the bears do not have a case in my opinion as $400 held as support and we had no new lows. However, note that if March 27th passes (give it to March 31st max) and we fail to break the top of the triangle ($435) and reach $450, then it is highly likely that the megabull cycle failed again and bears will take over. If I see a change I will first post on my twitter account and then follow up with a new chart when I have time on TV.
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Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle. It's Now!Hey guys I just found time after work to give you an update I was waiting to published been several weeks! I discovered that the bulls might starting the halving pump waaay ahead of July 16 2016 and we're following another megabull pattern like to the letter (see chart). If we are able to blow past $450 then our next top is $480 Bitfinex and stamp where we will go into another 36 days of consolidation before our major megabull pump by end of March , beginning of April.
From there we have several potential targets but the fractal goes to $9000 per BTC which I find exaggerated but it is Bitcoin afterall!
My more conservative targets are: $680-700 and $1800 and $2500
Bulls:
For now the bulls do not have a case in my opinion until the halving. If I see a change I will first post on my twitter1.99% account and then follow up with a new chart when I have time on TV.
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Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle at Halving 2016Full credit initially for this chart goes to JoeBu on Trading View. He was kind enough to share his initial chart with me.
This is an updated chart following my last chart on the failure of the megabull that occurred after January 15th. This chart is my predictive forecast on the occurrence of the next Megabull cycle after our latest failure at the double top ATH high of 500/470 . Although all those Megabull cycles might have occurred when Mark Karpeles was in charge of Mt. Gox failed exchange with the use of the Willy bot which drove the market higher each cycle, I believe we still have the chance without Willy to have another Megabull cycle once we reach the end of the big yellow triangle at halving 2016 on approximately July 16th per the Bitcoin Halving Clock
Bearish New Cycle Begins:
Before the 36th day of consolidation ended, Bitcoin washed down $100 down from $450s to $350s as I had anticipated on my previous charts, and the bulls failed to recover quickly upwards above $425 and remain above it to regain the lost highs and break out from the triangle's top. We instead had a series of fake outs to $420s (bull traps) which retraced quickly down to $370s where sideways took over. This sets the short-term trend to very bearish as:
For the first time since 2010 or 2012 the Megabull Cycle failed to occur after 36 days of consolidation
Previous double top ATH $1170/$980 and $680/$660 we have now a new ATH at $500/$470 (patterns are repeating and fractals as well)
We broke down the big yearly bull round bottom as seen in my chart here: crd.ht
So what's next? We must retest $360 bottom of the small triangle and see if it holds for a temporary double bottom and retest of $440. However, the likeliness of that scenario is rather low, hence I am expecting 350-360 support to fail and if volatility picks up then we will hit $325-315 where I strongly suggest to buy as the 1D RSI will be oversold for a bounce up to $350 then back down Or from $350 we could get as high as $424-414. There is also a slight chance that if $300-320s do not hold then with max volatility I expect a quick wick to $275 (strongly suggest to buy or put orders there) then an immediate recovery to $300 and $315-320s.
Bear targets summary:
$360-350 (if you are buying here have very tight stoploss at $347)
$325-315 (recommend to buy)
$275 (achievable with max volatility only)
Bulls:
For now the bulls do not have a case in my opinion until the halving. If I see a change I will first post on my twitter account and then follow up with a new chart when I have time on TV.
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Warning Bitcoin Megabull Cycle on the Verge of FailureFull credit initially for this chart goes to JoeBu on TV. He was kind enough to share his initial find with me. I dug more into it and detected the 36 days consolidation/sideways pattern (yellow rectangle) before each megabull cycle started. All those cycles occurred however when Mark Karpeles was in charge of Mt. Gox failed exchange where initially the bot Willy drove the market.
Bears:
Seeing that close to the 36th day of consolidation we are inching lower instead of heading up slowly suggest that the megabull cycle might not occur anymore and that all the previous cycles might have been just the manipulation of Mark Karpeles back then with his bot. Why on earth could we have really repeated the pattern afterall? If we fail to bounce from $400 upwards on the current drop then we will head lower and wash down to $348 initially. If volatility picks up then we will hit $325-315 and with max volatility I expect $275.
Bear targets summary:
$400
$348
$325-315
$275 (achievable with max volatility)
Bulls:
If however our current ongoing drop goes to $400 which behaves as support and provides a bounce up back to $440++ then their might still be a chance for the megabull cycle to occur. However I find this unlikely given the previous patterns yet not entirely impossible.
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Megabull Rally Starts After January 15 Target $650-680After touching the 1D top of the Bollinger Band @ $463 following the crash of several currencies and stock markets worldwide, Bitcoin entered sideways/consolidation between $463 - 440. I expect Bitcoin to retest the support at 442-436. So if you missed the initial break out, make sure you buy in this area. Your stop loss will be at $422 in case Bitcoin fails for any reason.
We will stay in this $463-440 chopzone until January 15-16th after which Bitcoin will break out and start the megabull rally. So make sure you jump on board as long as the blue neckline holds before we take off. I have studied previous megabull breakouts and use a combination of time node and fractal to find trading scenarios.
Initially, Bitcoin will revisit $500 and pullback to retest $475-463 as support and launch back up few days later to $650-680 and much higher.
Failure of this megabull cycle will be seen by a break of $400 and a failure of a break up above $475 by January 25th. If this happens consider flipping to fiat until further notice.
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Bullish Related Bitcoin News:
NASDAQ: "This Time Bitcoin's Price Increase is Both Logical and Sustainable" crd.ht
China announces it is suspending the circuit breaker that halted the market 2x this week crd.ht
China Trading Halts again after 7.3% plunge PBOC been devaluing the yuan vs usd. Chinese rush towards, Bitcoin, Gold, silver crd.ht
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