GBPCHF OUTLOOK & TRADE UPDATE | 1hInducement on both sites. Tapped into a POI again. It still looks bearish for me currently.
What do you think?
DBD = Drop Base Drop Supply Zone
LQP = Liquidity Pool
Mentorship
USDCAD OUTLOOK & TRADE UPDATE | 4hUSDCAD is doing great. Exceeded the roadblock. Pretty safe buys off the roadblock are possible.
The main target is the imbalance curve.
What do you think?
2WT = 2 Way Trap
LQP = Liquidity Pool
DBR = Drop Base Rally Demand Zone
XAUUSD (GOLD) OUTLOOK | 1hEither the roadblock gets exceeded and we go up or supply exceeds demand and we sell from roadblock.
What do you think?
GBPUSD OUTLOOK | 4HMajor inducement, daily 2WT and daily supply. GU looking good for swing sells. DXY have to confirm for me to enter anything tho.
What do you think?
LQP = Liquidity Pool
RBD = Rally Base Drop Supply Zone
2WT = 2 Way Trap
EURUSD & DXY OUTLOOK | 4HDXY is kinda aligning with my bias. I personally think it will go for the imbalance and the gap will act like a base. For EU I'd look for shorts in the whole retracement zone. I have two POIs which I marked - 2WT & DBD. I always make sure DXY aligns with EU when I'm entering. Keep it in mind. The whole retracement zone is a big supply zone.
I personally do not think that EU will exceed it but in case it does the same POIs will work as Demand - D>S.
What do you think?
2WT = 2 Way Trap
DBD = Drop Base Drop Supply Zone
GBPJPY TRADE UPDATE & OUTLOOK | 1HEven tho the trade is going pretty well JPY index doesn't look like it's reversing. Holding the trade might be risky that's why I put my SL on BE. Let's see how it goes.
What do you think?
LQP = Liquidity Pool
DBR = Drop Base Rally demand zone
2WT = 2 Way Trap
The Best Strategy of 2024: Reversal Entry ModelGood morning, today I would like to draw your attention to a model that I am integrating into my analyses for this year. In this model, we define simple structural changes either downwards or upwards, in this context downwards using two BOS. Subsequently, we define the main demand zone where the price retests. After the retest, the price breaks upwards the structure creating a CHOCH, or an internal breakout. Afterwards, the price will move into a lateral phase accumulating a lot of liquidity, and as it is known, as soon as the price absorbs liquidity above or below a range, it then moves in the opposite direction of the filled liquidity. In this case, liquidity is absorbed below in the order block zone and the price moves upwards. I recommend supplementing charts with this model and identifying these setups starting from an H4 timeframe which can be simpler compared to smaller timeframes. Best regards and happy trading to everyone.
EURUSD | New Low to 1.0750 before the Rally!EUR/USD, after breaking through a demand zone between 1.07 and 1.0790, is now heading towards another demand area at the level of 1.075, coinciding with the low of the bearish channel. This zone could be significant for an upward reversal in price, with a potential return towards 1.09. It will be crucial to assess the price action at the London opening this morning, especially considering the reaction to the NFP data after the sharp drop on Friday.
From a fundamental perspective, the US Dollar is strengthening as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delays potential rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are further supporting the Dollar. We are awaiting EU Sentix data and US ISM PMI. In the post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, Powell stated that "unexpected weakening in the labor market would lead us to cut rates earlier than expected."
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 37.5% probability that the Fed will reduce the policy rate by 25 bps to 5%-5.25% in March, while this probability rises to 60% for May. Warm regards and happy trading to all.
15M Pro OrderFlow | A Unique and Profitable StrategyIn this approach, we will outline one of the best entry points on M15. The model involves quickly assessing a potential demand area by identifying a liquidity zone formed during the Fibonacci retracement at the .62-0.78 level. From this zone, the market initiates a physiological uptrend before retracing downward, creating a sharp movement with an internal break, followed by a bounce in the demand area. It is at this moment that a precise entry will be executed, aiming to reach the structure's peak. It is important to note that this model is also applicable to H1, H4, and Daily time frames. Greetings to everyone and happy trading.
The best trading setup with Entry!In this model, we observe a market that begins to consolidate before a sharp decline, during which liquidity is created with an imbalance. Immediately after, there is an upward movement with rising highs and lows, forming a bullish liquidity trendline. When the price reaches a point where it starts to consolidate, dual liquidity is generated on the buy side in the upper part of the consolidation. Subsequently, a false upward movement occurs, during which the price gains liquidity from the previous order block created by the initial sharp decline. This creates an excellent opportunity to enter a short position, with the aim of reaching the minimum of the main decline. Updates will be provided with an example applied in a real case study. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
XAUUSD | Short opportunities and Geopolitical tensionThe price of gold gained bullish momentum, reaching a new weekly high above $2,050. Escalating geopolitical tensions and declining US Treasury bond yields, driven by soft producer inflation data from the United States, fueled the XAU/USD rally ahead of the weekend. Continued buying would negate any short-term negative outlook and set the stage for a move towards the round figure of $2,100. On the downside, the bearish trajectory could extend further towards the December low around the $1,973 area before eventually reaching the confluence area of $1,965-1,963, which includes the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its recovery on Friday from a one-month low around the $2,013 area, representing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It gained positive traction for the second consecutive day on Friday, steadily rising during the early European session. The precious metal benefited from renewed safe-haven demand amid the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, it remains below the $2,040-2,042 threshold, urging caution for bullish traders due to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Slightly higher consumer inflation figures released from the United States on Thursday, coupled with hawkish remarks from Fed officials, led investors to reduce their bets on a more aggressive policy easing. This provided tailwinds for US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD), potentially limiting gains for the non-yielding gold price. Markets are still pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate cut in March, offering support for the non-yielding yellow metal as traders await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and a speech from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for short-term impetus.
GBP/USD Expected to Decline in JanuaryEconomic and Political Context:
Market Sentiment: The GBP/USD exhibits a positive trend above 1.2700 during Wednesday's European session, bolstered by an improvement in market sentiment and renewed weakness in the US Dollar.
Influence of Bank of England (BoE) Policy: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to defend the decision to tighten policy to combat inflation. If he leaves the door open for further rate hikes, this could strengthen the pound, pushing GBP/USD upwards.
Geopolitical Situation: Concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices and inflation could drive flows towards safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar.
Technical Factors:
Daily Chart Technical Analysis: The GBP/USD price shows a potential supply zone around the 1.2880 level. This could be a key point for a possible change in direction, where a short position might be considered.
Price Target: A potential target for a short position might be around the 1.2550 level, aligning with a bounce from the bullish trend line.
Recent Trend: The pair broke a four-day winning streak on Tuesday, suggesting caution among investors.
Other Relevant Factors:
10-Year US Treasury Note Auction: The auction results could affect the yield of US Treasury notes and, consequently, the value of the US Dollar. A high yield could strengthen the dollar, while a lower-than-expected yield could weaken it.
Conclusion and Trading Strategy:
The combination of these factors suggests a cautious yet attentive approach to trading opportunities. Bailey's testimony and the US Treasury note auction are key events to monitor, as they could significantly influence the direction of GBP/USD. My prediction involves entering a short position near the 1.2880 level with a target around 1.2550, and tomorrow's American CPI data will be of vital importance and impact.
USDJPY| Breakout of a bullish channel with a target at 141.80Analyzing the USD/JPY pair, I observe that it is consolidating losses below the 144.00 level. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained traction following softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, strengthening expectations of a more hawkish approach by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and widening the monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). U.S. economic data indicates a still-resilient economy, dampening hopes for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. This supports high U.S. Treasury bond yields, benefiting the dollar. However, USD bulls seem hesitant to place aggressive bets, preferring to wait for Thursday's consumer inflation data. The Yen continues to attract buying for the second consecutive day after inflation in Tokyo remained above BoJ's 2% target. This could lead the BoJ to scale back its massive stimulus later this year, strengthening the JPY. On the other hand, the USD is weakened by expectations of a Fed rate cut in March, bolstered by a drop in U.S. consumer inflation expectations. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair has dropped below the mid-143.00s during the Asian session. Post-earthquake government stimulus measures in Japan might have delayed BoJ's shift from its ultra-accommodative stance. This, along with a positive tone around Asian equity markets, could limit any significant appreciation of the JPY as a safe haven. Investors have also scaled back expectations for more aggressive Fed policy easing, given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Recent hawkish remarks by Fed officials support high U.S. bond yields, favoring the dollar and limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair. The upcoming U.S. CPI report might provide clarity on the timing of the Fed's potential policy easing, influencing the dollar's dynamics and determining the short-term trajectory of the USD/JPY pair. I expect a rise in the next few hours, with a rebound at the intersection of a new forming downtrend at H4 and the broken bullish channel during the Asian session, possibly leading to a short entry around 144.50 with a final target at 141.80. Let's see if the market confirms this personal view. Happy trading to all.
EURUSD: Good point to evaluate the weekly direction!On EUR/USD, there's noticeable buying interest, with the pair rebounding from multi-week lows at 1.0876 to settle around 1.0948, marking a modest 0.09% increase. During Thursday's European trading hours, EUR/USD gained ground but struggled to extend its recovery later in the day due to rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, supporting the Dollar (USD). The initial improvement in risk sentiment made it challenging for the USD to find demand on Thursday. However, after the ADP Employment Change report for December came in at 164,000, exceeding market expectations of 115,000, the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4%, helping the USD limit its losses. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the U.S. are expected to rise by 170,000 in December, following a higher-than-expected increase of 199,000 in November. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 65% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in March, down from 85% at the beginning of the week. My personal expectation for today and possibly in the absence of movement in the coming days, I expect the price to drop below 1.088 to collect liquidity before bouncing towards 1.102 or a second scenario I personally consider less likely, a direct short towards 1.081. Happy trading everyone, from Nicola.
SPYzoomed in Inverse H/S linked to previous idea. Short into next year then flip to long for the possible Santa rally.
GBP/USD up at 1.25!The GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2250 on a quiet Monday. The pair printed a fresh daily high at 1.2259 on the back of Dollar weakness. Attention shifts toward UK employment figures and the critical US CPI data due on Tuesday. The GBP/USD gained momentum and pushed towards 1.2250 in the European session on Monday after spending the Asian session fluctuating in a tight channel slightly above 1.2200. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests that sellers remain reluctant to bet on persistent Pound Sterling weakness. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sacked Home Secretary Suella Braverman Monday morning to begin his reshuffle of the cabinet. James Cleverly got appointed as the new Home Secretary, and Sunak named former Prime Minister David Cameron as the new Foreign Secretary. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release the jobs report, which will include wage inflation figures for October. Later in the day, October Consumer Price Index data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish comments last week, markets are still pricing in a more than 80% probability that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged in December. The price has started moving after the rebound on the trendline intersection. The market could break the supply zone just above and then retest it before moving upwards. Leave a like and comment to support our work, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EUR/USD Dynamics & Market FactorsEUR/USD Pair: The EUR/USD pair is trading within a tight range around the 1.0700 level during the Asian session, lacking a clear intraday direction.
US Treasury Bond Yields and Equities: A recent significant pullback in US Treasury bond yields and a rally in US equity markets have not provided support for the US Dollar, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, contributing to a favorable environment for the EUR/USD pair.
Federal Reserve Rate Hike Path: Uncertainty surrounds the future path of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Recent indications from the Fed that financial conditions may already be tight enough to control inflation have led to the perception that the Fed might pause its interest rate hike campaign.
US Monthly Jobs Report: The less robust US monthly jobs report released on Friday has reinforced the notion that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy stance for the third consecutive time in December.
Hawkish Fed Officials: Some Federal Reserve officials have adopted an assertive tone and recognized the resilience of the US economy.
German Industrial Production: Tuesday's data revealed a more significant decline than expected in German industrial production in September, which could weigh on the Euro and restrict the potential upside for the EUR/USD pair.
European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Hikes: Expectations suggest that further rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) may not be on the agenda, indicating a bearish outlook for the Euro.
Market Drivers: The release of the final German Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone Retail Sales data, along with US bond yields and overall market sentiment, will influence the US Dollar and potentially create short-term trading opportunities for the EUR/USD pair.
SP500 pulled back by 100 points before heading towards 4500.On Friday, we witnessed a strong growth in the SP500 index, further bolstering its performance, with an increase of 0.94%. The day started with strength, opening 4,334.2 points above the previous session's highs, and quotations strengthened throughout the entire session. In fact, it has been an impressive week for the SP500, with the index rising by over 200 points (5%). More importantly, it has returned to a significant zone that has acted as both support and resistance in the past two years. From a technical perspective, touching this resistance could lead to a correction, and this drop could provide a good buying opportunity. I expect a price return to the level of 4290, which is a retest of the trendline, as the price is currently in an order block, a very important area where sellers will try to push the price down. Once the price reaches the 4290 area, it could potentially rise towards 4500, or the 0.705 Fibonacci level. Let me know what you think. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USDJPY Bullish target to 152 post-Fed.The USD/JPY cross remains stable near the 151.00 level as the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, as widely expected by the markets. However, the lack of significant changes in the Fed's rate statement leaves investors uncertain about a possible rate hike in December to close out the year. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on a two-day upward trajectory, supported by elevated U.S. Treasury yields. Currently, the index is trading higher near 106.70 at the time of writing. Additionally, the market expects the upcoming monetary policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, indicating that the central bank will maintain its current monetary policy in the Wednesday meeting. Investors will closely monitor the post-meeting communication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), eager to obtain insights that can help assess the potential path of interest rates. Data-driven considerations for December add an extra layer of dynamic anticipation to the market. Traders will also watch key indicators such as the U.S. ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI for October in the North American session. USD/JPY is trading around 151.20 during the Asian session on Wednesday, retracing from the annual highs reached after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) removed the 1% ceiling for the 10-year government bond yield on Tuesday. Following the adjustment of the yield curve control (YCC), BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has adopted a notably accommodative stance. He expressed concerns about inflation not definitively reaching the BoJ's long-term targets. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, engaged in verbal intervention to support the yen. He emphasized the importance of currencies moving in a stable manner that reflects fundamentals and expressed disapproval of rapid foreign exchange (FX) fluctuations. While refraining from commenting on specific FX levels, Matsuno did not rule out the possibility of taking measures to address disorderly FX movements. Moreover, the unexpected decline in China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.5 in October, down from September's expansion at 50.6, as reported in the latest Wednesday data, has added pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). On the daily chart, it's also possible to observe that the market is bouncing within an ascending channel since the end of August. Currently, it's at the 150.90 level, and from here, it could bounce to the 149.70 level, which corresponds to the 0.705 Fibonacci level before continuing the ascent towards 152 and beyond. Comment and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EUR/USD Before NFP and post FED, direction 1.07?The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently trading at around 1.0600 in the European morning on Thursday. This movement is largely influenced by several key factors. First, there is sustained weakness in the US dollar, following the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to extend its pause in monetary policy changes. Additionally, comments made by the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, during the press conference, have contributed to this dollar weakness, as he emphasized the need for persistent long-term yield increases to influence monetary policy. Powell also noted that monetary policy is currently restrictive. As a result, the euro has gained strength, pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate above 1.0580 in the early Asian session on Thursday. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at about 1.0597, marking a 0.26% increase for the day. The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting played a significant role in shaping market sentiment. The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, as widely expected. However, it has opened the door to another rate hike, although there is a sense of caution regarding enthusiasm in pursuing it. This cautious approach has led to a decline in the US dollar, as many now believe that the rate hike cycle may have come to an end. Regarding economic data, private sector employment growth in the United States for October saw a modest increase but remained below market expectations, rising by 113,000 units, below the consensus of a 150,000-unit increase. However, JOLTS job openings unexpectedly improved, reaching 9.553 million openings, surpassing the expectation of 9.25 million. However, the ISM manufacturing PMI for October dropped to 46.7, the lowest value since July, reflecting a challenging economic environment. On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week, but the outlook suggests that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon in the second quarter of next year. This stance is driven by disinflationary pressures and concerns about weak GDP growth, with PMI data indicating an increased risk of a recession in the Eurozone. Recent economic indicators for the Eurozone have been mixed. The Eurozone's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for October recorded an annual increase of 2.9%, down from the previous reading of 4.3% and below market expectations. The core HICP also decreased from 4.5% to 4.2%. The Eurozone's GDP for the third quarter (Q3) declined by 0.1% on a quarterly basis and grew only 0.1% on an annual basis, both below market expectations. In the H4 chart, my personal view is bullish, but currently, the price is in a supply zone, which could potentially bring the price back to the 1.0560 area, namely within a demand zone that has been supporting the EUR/USD since October 6th. So, I would personally look for a long entry at the M15 if and only if the price retraces to the demand zone and target 1.07. I remind you that the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is due tomorrow, so I advise caution as any scenario could change. Please leave a like and comment in support of our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GOLD Approaching 2,100 After NFP Data!Price Movement: Gold is on an upward trajectory, nearing the $2,000 mark. This is attributed to negative US Jobless Claims data, which is impacting the US Dollar. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields have breached the 4.70% level.
Trading Strategy: Traders are adopting a "buy the dips" strategy in gold, as long as it remains above the critical support level at $1,963.
Technical Indicators: The 14-day RSI suggests the potential for further price increases. Several SMAs, including the 21- and 50-day and 21- and 100-day, indicate a bullish trend. A daily closing above the 200-day SMA could signal sustained upside.
Resistance and Support Levels: The immediate resistance is at $1,993, and a break above this level could retest the $2,000 threshold. To maintain the uptrend, acceptance above $2,009 is crucial. On the downside, if $1,963 support is breached, a drop to the $1,950 level is possible, and further decline could test the October 19 low of $1,945.
Market Factors: Gold's recovery is influenced by a decrease in US Treasury bond yields following the FOMC policy meeting, where the Federal Reserve left the key policy rate unchanged. Jerome Powell's comments, while not ruling out another rate hike, were perceived as less hawkish than expected, which weakened the US Dollar and boosted gold.
Mixed Economic Data: The US Dollar faced headwinds from mixed economic data, including lower-than-expected private sector payrolls and a drop in the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Market Sentiment: Market sentiment is also influenced by the potential for future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with some investors paring back expectations of a rate increase in December and January.
Global Events: The safe-haven US Dollar is undermined by a global risk rally, overshadowing geopolitical conflicts like the Hamas-Israel situation.
Bank of England Decision: Gold traders are keeping an eye on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision, which is expected to remain unchanged. A dovish BoE stance could impact currency markets and indirectly affect gold prices.
GBP/USD Fed and BoE, price heading towards 1.23The GBP/USD exchange rate is slightly higher above 1.2100 at the beginning of the Monday European session, but traders remain cautious due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming meetings of major central banks. During the Asian session, the exchange rate remains within a narrow range around the 1.2100 level. Traders are awaiting significant central bank events scheduled for this week, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday.
The Fed is expected to confirm the maintenance of interest rates for the second time in November, although there are still speculations about a possible rate hike later in the year. These speculations are supported by positive macroeconomic data from the United States, indicating a resilient economy. On the other hand, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged due to concerns about a possible recession, but it may leave the door open for further monetary tightening to combat inflation. This uncertainty is holding back traders from taking directional positions on the British Pound (GBP), and the lack of buying interest suggests that the most likely trend for the exchange rate is downward. However, bears should wait for acceptance below the 1.2100 level before entering new positions.
There are no significant economic data scheduled for Monday from either the UK or the US. Therefore, US Treasury bond yields will continue to influence the dynamics of the US Dollar (USD) and provide short-term trading opportunities for the GBP/USD exchange rate. Additionally, broader market sentiment will affect the demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. Given the complex market variables, caution is advisable before entering new directional trades.
Additionally, the price is slightly outside a demand zone and is consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. A bullish trend is starting to take shape, and I personally expect a bounce on the trendline before considering a potential long entry with a target of 1.225. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
XAUUSD is ready to touch 2020!Gold prices have continued their upward trajectory, reaching nearly $1,990 on Friday, a level not seen in five months. The XAU/USD pair has benefited from the growing interest in safe havens, with investors actively seeking to mitigate their exposure to risk. Furthermore, the decline in U.S. yields has provided additional support to the price of gold. The precious metal has embarked on a triumphant three-day trend and is expected to reach a five-month peak of around $1,987, with the main resistance level positioned at $2,000. Both the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have surpassed the 200-day EMA, indicating a strengthened bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also crossed the 60.00 threshold, suggesting potential upside for gold.
These price fluctuations have been driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell endorsing a policy of stable interest rates. The demand for gold has increased as Israeli forces prepared to enter the Gaza Strip, raising concerns about potential regional conflicts in the Middle East. Powell and other Federal Reserve officials have provided neutral guidance on interest rates, acknowledging the influence of rising U.S. Treasury yields on spending and investment. In short, I expect a small retracement to the 1960/1970 area before identifying a long entry with a target of 2020, and then looking for a short with a target of 1950. Let me know what you think. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
