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MES

EMini /ES Futures Spooky Long setupFellow traders, If the full moon tonight excites the animal within - I propose taking a look at the S&P500 daily chart... (although this is a 2hr chart for detail ;) Full bullish structure, a balance day after Friday's strong push. MA's are strong and previous price structure resembles a possible strong move to 4000 This entry isn't prime quality - I would like to enter cheaper, in fact I may just wait for 3820, but price action doesn't look like it will allow it and I get a hunch we may move higher quickly. My confidence in the up move this week outweighs hesitation. Lets not forget the ghastly Fed meeting on Wednesday. Any shift in the Fed's ominous tone on the plan to increase interest rates in the future could create a lot of supernatural buying pressure - in fact that is what the charts are resonating to me. If it's a treat I'm in. I'll comment if I raise the order in the morning. The plan will be to leave it valid for 2 days, I'm sure we will get a quick flash lower to that level.. *nod to zombie news traders finding liquidity lower before the blast higher. Happy Halloween 2022! Trick-er-treat ES, you got Reeses Cups or Candy Corn?
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GrayTrader01
1
ES - Is the bottom in???Fellow traders, ES is in a tricky place. Many traders are getting excited about longs this week and I can't blame them. However, my strategy is painting a different picture. Last Tuesday and Wednesday we saw 3580 holding LIKE A BRICK WALL. It is very clear institutional entities had an interest in defending the level. 3600 - 3580 was a battle zone that I don't want any part of. Last Thursday we had a mega hammer bar that pierced the low with power, then reversed and closed at the MA's (moving averages). In all technical respects, this bar is telling us to tighten expectations on shorts. It's location in the median range (3720 - 3520) reduces it's value as a bottom indicator. Clear respect of the MA's tells us this was a controlled lift from the low. Friday was ALMOST an equal and opposite bar, however, the body of the candle is completely inside Thursday's candle body with it's upper wick smaller than Thursday's down wick. The value of this bar is very low. All this being said, last week was a balance as expected. Last Sunday I had mapped out a few short entries, one at 3720 that did work well later in the week. Tuesday I raised an order on it and Wednesday the order was removed based on the daily chart structure. Specifically I don't like how the MA's are bunched together. So I'm at an impasse. Chances are this week is going to be unprofitable for many traders. There is NO clear direction for my strategy. 2 conditions that would prompt my interest this week 1. Solid moves above 3680 with verified long entries around 3720 2. Daily closes below 3580 with short entries round 3520 I bet this would be a good week for range traders, but I'll leave that fun for those folks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by GrayTrader01
1
10/09/22 ES Weekly SummaryWith the downtrend intact, I’m not taking any long trades this week. Shorts only. I’ve marked some trades of interest in terms of level and price, not accurate on the time scale obviously. Price is still in the wedge and I’m mostly interested in shorting from the high side. Last Thursday we got a short entry at the US open that hit our price target (see the linked idea). I believe the downward pressure was influenced by news about “Nuclear Armageddon with Russia'' headlines that seem to be nothing more than a headline and price motivator. That being said - until we break the low of 3571.75, it would seem this selloff is now validating a much stronger bullish bounce (post coming soon about how I interpret price validation). I would not be surprised if the bottom starts to establish here. I would need to see daily closes outside the wedge to get aggressive about buying. For now I'm targeting shorts only and keeping my powder dry.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by GrayTrader01
Bear market over? The structure shift we will need to see.We can observe the weekly trend in MES which mirrors SPX and all SPX futures. Following consecutive lower lows and lower highs, we have broken the prior swing high to create a higher high. Equal highs and the weekly fair value gap above act as a draw on liquidity. Weekly fair value gap below also acts as a draw on liquidity. Retest and ‘double bottom’ in weekly demand would confirm a higher low following this higher high. Until proven otherwise, this is still a corrective move in a downtrend on higher timeframes.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by SpinTrades
SPY/SPX/ES/MES Elliot Wave AnalysisLooks like a big rally shaping up to end the month of May, but June should be a full-on bear fest, at least to start the month. Major Wave 1 down should end in the 3200 - 3500 zone. Likely, we'll rebound from there into the Fall of 2022. Major Wave 3 will likely project down to the 1500 zone. Major Wave 5 will likely end in late Spring 2023 with target projections somewhere between 1500 - 1200 with a very real possibility of undercutting the 2009 low @ 666. If we do undercut 666, supercycle Wave 5 up should begin, lasting 8.6 years into 2032 and reaching 50k to 100k + on the Dow Industrials. After that, it's possible the whole thing drops to zero and the shithouse goes up in flames. Credit to Dan E. for his wave analysis and Elliot Wave International CME_MINI:ES1! Side note - When things get super volatile, I like to trade the mini ES. Trades great with excellent liquidity.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by imdp
Long Signal MESM22Buy Signal Entry - 4458.50 TP - 4654.00 SL - 4388.00 For Daily Support/Resistance levels click here! www.cannontrading.com **Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not indicative of future results** Visit www.cannontrading.com to learn more about the risk associated with trading futures.
CME_MINI:MESM2022Long
by Cannon-Trading
S&P500 - Too good to short?Many indication point to a near term short. 1. The blue Arrows measures the pullback swings. Currently we are exactly at the highs, where price usually turned south. 2. Price got rejected again right at the KillZone 3. The A/R Resistance converge with the current high. 4. The indicators MACD & RSI signal short. So, what's a Trader to do here? Could price move even higher? Sure, no doubt. These markets are highly manipulated and trading totally crazy. But...we are Traders. We live on probabilities and good money management. For me, this is a superb bet. And how could we play this short? Because of the volatility, I stopped to go in with the whole position in one spot. What does that mean? It means, that I enter such trades in 3 stages, using reverse pyramiding. It can be with the underlying it self, or with substitutes, like Options, or even a combination, depending on my risk and greed level. So, why not just enter with a small position in the Micro-Futures, and pump the trade up on confirmation? Bet small. You can always re-enter any market, as long as you have money in your account! Stay well, trade well. #pigsgetslaughtered
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
ES - 4441The S&P 500 has flipped back to Bullish for the Short Duration Timeframes. From a Weekly perspective, it remains in Negative Territory. OSC's remain well below respecting the 3 and 4X divergences which built over months. As Price traded down the lower Channel Boundary for the Downtrend on its third test of Support volumes began to wane, although Money Flow continued to remain deeply negative on the Weekly TF. We anticipated a Counter-trend and indicated it would be complex and require time to develop in order to determine how far it would return. 4441 was an obvious over-throw level on the DOM as there was widespread panic participation there repeatedly - once it cleared and closed above - 4481/83 - 4500 became the Price Extension Objectives. The ES dropped close to 300 handles from its ATH to Low. An impressive move in relatively short order. Participants here waited patiently for this Larger Trade to develop - it took several months from when we began pointing out the divergences were immense. Patience and resolve into Positioning for it required a healthy degree of the same as waiting on the Inflation Transition to begin its challenge to Yields required even more patience and resolve. The NET result, once ROCs in 10Yr Note Yields began to reverse and build ROC, the decline was ON - everyone who followed the trade... did very well. Our bias on Capital was Futures, but an aggressive 15.2% Position in Bonds was deployed as well, namely ZB ZN TLT in conjunction with NQ TQQQ ES SPXL YM MNQ MES MYM and several others. As it became clear the Trade was going to reverse, we entered Buy To Opens on greatly reduced size @ .125X and .250X capturing percentages of each retrace, these were trades... they are not Positions, regardless of the Scope and Scale of this retracement as we Yield Risk remains extraordinarily HIGH. We indicated the next Lower low for the ES would arrive in the 4140 to 4190 Range once this counter-trend completes. Indicating the 1.645 to 1.71 / 1.76 level for the 10Yr Yield would be the Trigger - Presently @ 1.574. Many Traders are now calling the "Bottom" - we simply believe it is far too early to assume such. I've seen 18K - 21K "Calls" for the NQ, 5K - 6.6K for the ES. "Calls" is correct, they are simply this and nothing more, WAGs of degenerate proportions. Can they trade? Anything is Possible in a Liquidity Fueled Market. Is it Probable? No, IMHO, 4/5 is incomplete. Could I be proven wrong, Yes, absolutely. For the PRESENT, with Yields @ RISK, the VX CURVE @ LOWS filling the Daily Gap and the VXN approaching LOWS... PROBABILITY is on my side, not the BULlS, BTD DG's, and "CALLERS" We remain at the beginning of EPS for Q3, the numbers with few exceptions (FInancials) are dismal. AAPL- Toyota and a great many MultiNationals have provided insights as to Future Guidance and clear Guidance to far lower expectations. The Global Economy is contracting. The BULLs insist this exactly when you Buy the Dip as the Federal Reserve is all in to support the Equity Complex... Are they though? Of course, they are NOT. They have openly announced a reduction in Bond / MBS purchases @ $15 Billion per month, beginning in November. At this rate, it implies the Taper will last 8 Months or out to the Summer of 2022. The ONLY question is does this begin November 3rd or the 21st. We believe they will be far more aggressive in the Taper, @ $20 to $25 Billion per month. They have no intention of letting this Taper drag on, it will be the shortest in history as they now need to appear vigilant in fighting an Inflation which has proven to be - not at all Transitory. The FED will ACT, make no mistake regarding their intent, regardless of how cluttered their FOMC statement was filled with mixed metaphors. Bonds will force their hands out the curve, which implies a flattening to inversion of the Yield Curve Longer Durations. 2022 is going to be a complete MESS. Confidence is at lower lows than the Corona Virus Lows, another clear divergence. To the BULLs this apparently suggests the Bottom is IN. Here in our little corner of the Trading Universe - it suggests something altogether different. AS for Price within the Equity Complex, it has been sloppy at best. A difficult environment as Volatility will begin to assert itself as we move to Settle the VIX this coming week. Where specifically and how high can Price return... again this will depend on 10Yr Yields, it will most closely correlate to It and the VX Complex. Our Larger Objectives remain the 200SMAs, for Price to invalidate this - it would require turning Weekly charts which are in extreme Negative territory, and even then... We sincerely doubt it would hold for very long given the enormity of the real Headwinds accumulated. As this concludes, we will be re-entering Positional SELLS for the lower-Price Objectives well below. What turns this... there are 1000s of Vectors at this time. We will see, until then we remain patient, vigilant and most of all - opportunistic. Trade accordingly - as this develops we will continue to update our Indications. The only answer is Price, we simply Obey. 4/5 is incomplete IMHO, 5/5 will be amazing in its Price efforts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
6