ES longer weekly directionI see an overthrow of this corona virus rising wedge (to screw everyone), clears the gap, then market correction induced by profit taking.
MES
ES rising wedge fake breakout to clear the gap then crashThis is the same rising wedge setup that got broken to the upside (wrongly) back days before the JUN 11 market drop.
JUN 9 was the last FOMC, they are setting up the exact same play again (look at the greyed out rising wedge around the 3rd red circle).
Fake rising wedge upside break, then dump. Wish I had seen this sooner.
ES 3150 downside target3210 has to break first (this is 3 months support)
3190 has to go next (this is the price level that has been defended ever since we gapped over it due to the fake vaccine presser on Jul 14 at 5 pm)
3150 is next and is a very strong support because many supports coincide there
- resistance break out turned support from February highs
- bisecting line from 2018 (pink dotted line)
Look at the linked ideas to follow along from 3210, 3190.
For 3150, match up the current chart with this green box. We have February resistance breakout pullback retest & bisecting line from 2018.
I fully expect all of these to break sequentially one after another, after 3150 goes (not on the first short, bounce around) we drive straight to 3000.
Bears have to clear 3190 to unlock lowerIt's clear, central banks are here protecting the 3190 level, desperately suppressing DXY, this time the BoJ took the baton over from the ECB to suppress DXY via UJ pump.
The effect of DXY suppression = equities support mechanism is diminishing, marginal impact from continued suppression is now occuring.
Someone has to force their hand lower.
MES SHORTMES is showing a highly sell opportunity, a strong trend line broke, sellers are pushing the market, gonna hit the target if not it'll get close to it.
Swing Failure ESMarket open saw a violent turn to the downside which broke prior a two touch support and then quickly retraced giving us a swing failure to trade. Just watching how this one goes.
Bullish case of S&P 500Bullish Case of $ES_F #ES_F $MES $SPX
Bulls are not done yet. Here is why:
- Brocken demand base retested
- Daily/Weekly Open retested
- Clean break thru Monthly open, looking for retest
Invalidation: close below Weekly Open.
We may shit the bed below Monthly open for more liquidity.
SPX - Bearish Swing to end June + Q2? ... 3050/3100 levels key technical structure marked + end of week/month/quarter trade risk w/ China + corona risk + Senate bill to punish China for HK dealings
key levels: 3050 / *3075-80* / 3100
Invalid above 3130
Profit Taking 3025/3010/3000
Trade Safe
Blessings
ES has to break the 2990-3020 confluence of support to 2930A break of the 2990-3020 confluence of supports leads us immediately lower to 2930, the 0.618 fib off the Feb ATH to March lows.
That is going to be a 70 point run without any heat, so just fade any rally attempt on the way from 2990 to 2930. We'll see from there where we go - I think lower still, the target would be 2840 (follow the blue circles).
Shorting in favour now, bulls bag holding 3102 hardWow what a trap, pennant fakeout to the upside then reversal.
Funnily enough, I went long and bag held that bottom - I had to triple down to get out for a scratch.
It's hilarious how the market can get in your head, even in the most dire permabears like me. Well played market, you win this battle (but I did too cause I scratched it).
Break below 3060 and bears are in controlAlot of bulls got trapped by this weeks price action, they are bag holding - just look at the volume profile.
They are going to rush for the exits on a break of 3060.
Pennant on ES decides our fateWherever this goes, whether it breaks up (as expected) or down decides.
A break down of this pennant means no new ATH for bulls.
A break up means we see 3180-3220 easily and then time to pile in heavy short.
Remember, we just had a guy flash a 2000 lot ask limit at 3125 for several minutes before pulling it then reappearing with 600 at the same 3125 level once price came back up again.
I'm a permabear too so be fair warned.
Bullish invs head and shoulders on ES Watch out, that supply test back to Fridays HOD at 11 am today was a bullish flushout of weak hands.
Long the ES at 2940-50 areaDepending how big your stack is, this is how you play this.
Long 2945 area +/-.
Remember, 2930.00 is the 0.618 retracement on the dot from the February ATH to the March lows.
If you start longing at 45 and it goes down, you need to be ready to double down.
If you're more risk cautious, wait for a hammer to form.
If you're a bear, take profits here (like me).
For whoever is so inclined, here is the full 4 hr chart.
volume profile certainly changed with all the 3000 buying last week the defense of 3000 lowered the volume profile at the 2950 level, and the POC is now up at 3198 (45min from May low)...quite the bull trap in hindsight. need to get multi day profiles on here some how. would have shown the change.
if we break lower now....2800 seems more likely, with a pause at 2950....that would create some max pain on the opex OI.
not taking a position here. prob closed the 6/19 300p a little early, but still took a nice profit on it.
I'll be looking for support to grab a relief rally.
ES Nice Pullbacks Create Buying Opportunities - Possible IH&S?ES
Nice Pullbacks Create Buying Opportunities - Possible IH&S on the 1hr?
ES is having issues getting back above and holding the 786 @3134.75
SPY having issues at the 786 @313
If we can get above and hold those levels we could see a great buying opportunity for the rest of the week. If we cannot hold these levels I am looking to short to 3078
It is highly recommended that if you are long with stock or options to always have a hedge at times like these. IE: VXX, TVIX calls/SPY puts are great hedging opportunities. Also think about trading futures, the MES is a viable hedging option as well.
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
SPY hits 76.4 Fibo retracement - Pullback looming?Impressive rally off the 200d MA breakout last week. My gut feeling says we should pull back a little from here. Don't focus on headlines and news not related to monetary policy - only price pays! And be aware of the relentless bull stopping out increasingly weaker bears.
Short the ES Bear Flag Break from APR11Easy trade.
Go heavy short on this break, or position ahead of time.
ES Weekly - match up the red dotted line on both the 4HR main chart and the weekly chart I posted below.
Here is the intraday slop.
ES data is delayed on TV, but this bull flag broke to the upsdie already.
Short add targets, there is a risk this pumps to 3000 so play accordingly.
Second Biggest Short Play of the Year on ESHere it is ladies & gentlemen.
The second biggest short play of the year is about to commence.
We have a H&S on the daily with price action neatly contained within a bearish rising wedge (pink) since MAY 13 overnight session (the bottom 2HR chart).
The bearish rising wedge termination appears to coincide with the right shoulder of the H&S pattern. This puts ES price around 2870 to 2880 area.
2880 was a very important price level two weeks ago.
We have Fed Chair Jerome Powell's interview with 60 Minutes on CBS airing on 7 pm MAY 17, or this Sunday night.
The smart money has finished unloading their stocks onto the public as proven by the explosion in new accounts with TD Ameritrade and Robinhood since the corona virus depression began. The average joe has been suckered into the market and unloaded on.
Check out this tweet - twitter.com - this is proof of the huge increase in DART (Daily Average Revenue Trades) by retail folk.
Smart money will now commence the next leg down and all the blame will be laid at the feet of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve for this interview airing Sunday night.
A daily view of the SPY paints the same bearish picture.
SPX lay of the land favours shortsPrice in a small bull flag - bigger resistance right above.
I'd be building a short position here if I had money, instead i'll just try to scalp.
MES Micro Emini ES Short Signal 30 Minute TimeframeLooking for a 5th Wave Short on MES, Small Risk using these Micro Futures Contracts. So a Risk of less than $200 using 3 Micro Emini MES Contracts for this potential Short.
Very Conservative entry, below recent pivot rejection - giving a 1:1 Risk to Reward to our Automated 5th Wave Target around 2952.
Again, if the Stop for the order is taken out, then cancel the trade
Watch the Video Tour of our Eliott Wave Indicator Suite for TradingView >>>HERE<<<
Strong Bulls, Strong Bears, Weak Bulls, Weak BearsStrong Bulls are always looking to buy. Strong Bears are always looking to sell. Weak Bulls and Weak Bears are usually indecisive and wait until its too late, entering at the worst possible time. In general, Strong Bulls sell to Weak Bears, and Strong Bears buy from Weak Bulls. When both Strong Bulls and Strong Bears sell (strong bulls to take profits, and strong bears to initiate shorts), there is only one direction for the market to go. This is when leads to strong moves in the markets.
When prices are in a strong bull trend Strong Bulls buy at any price, including a high price. This strong trend can be in the form of a spike or a tight bull channel. The Strong Bulls are aware prices are in a strong trend, and therefore are willing to buy high. This buying prevents a pullback and instead prices continue to rally. Strong bears see this and are not willing to sell yet, and so the lack of selling pressure creates a vacuum and also prevents a pullback. The same is true for Strong Bears in a strong bear trend.
When prices are in a weaker bull trend, such as a broad bull channel, bulls who buy high tend to get trapped and are either forced to exit and buy lower, or scale into their position at a lower price. This is also refereed to as "averaging in to a position." When strong bulls see that bulls who buy high are getting trapped, they will only look to buy at a discount, or a pullback and will sell to take profits when prices reach near the highs. This is what feeds the bull channel, which is a form of a slanted trading range. When prices are in a trading range, both Strong Bulls and Strong Bears will only look to buy low and sell high. Most will also scale into their position if prices go against them, and they tend to take smaller profits like 1X risk.
What about Weak Bulls and Weak Bears? Weak bulls and Weak bears tend to flip flop in their positions. In other words, they see a bear leg and assume prices are going lower and sell low in the bear leg, just before a rally begins. This is most obvious when prices are in some form of trading range or weak channel where there is heavy two sided trading.
Weak bulls also buy high in a bull channel, or high in a trading range. They buy from strong bears who are selling high prices. They are then forced to exit or scale in, and contribute to the selling if they exit. Then when prices are near the bottom of the channel, they become convinced the market is now selling off, and sell low. This repeats over and over as they hope for a breakout and fail to realize what is occurring.
A major key in learning to become a profitable trader is the ability to understand what the institutions (strong bulls and strong bears) are doing at any given time. This is how you follow "smart money." If you do not understand what prices are telling you; you are more likely to act as a Weak Bull and Weak Bear, and contribute to the market.
To learn more about how to understand institutions and price tendencies, see below.
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