SYMC Volatile - Breakout Mode - Slight Bull AdvantageSYMC is at the bottom of a bull flag trading range and in the midst of an expanding triangle. Prices have been volatile the past two weeks, with gaps up and down. Both sides are fighting for follow through. The bulls have a slight advantage because we are near the bottom of a bull flag trading range. The bears need a strong breakout below the 16 higher low. There have been many bear attempts over the past year to break below, but so far have failed (tails).
The bulls want a test of the all time high around 34, but need a breakout above the 26 level first. The bull follow through from the Jun 3 double bottom pullback was strong, with consecutive bars and bull gaps. The bulls will likely (60%) get some form of second leg up and test of the 24-26 level unless the bears get a strong breakout below the 18 support. There is always atleast a 40% chance of this happening, but until it does, it hasnt.
To learn more about how to determine the directional probability and how to structure a trade based on this with a positive traders equation, please see below.
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MES
S&P New All Time Highs - Risky BuyS&P New All Time Highs - Risky Buy
The Emini and S&P 500 made a new all time high again today, leading many to believe this market is still strong. In some ways it is, but it is more important to realize it is also in a bull flag trading range. This makes it a risky place to buy up here. This is where strong bulls who bought lower will start looking to take profits, and strong bears will start looking to sell for a move down.
Why is it risky to buy now? There is only a 40% chance of a measured move up based on the height of the trading range. And the risk needed to enter now is large (below the bottom of the trading range). There is at least a 50% chance of a test down soon, back into the range. The middle of the trading range is a magnet and will likely get tested before the bull trend continues. Furthermore, if the bears are soon able to create a strong reversal bar for the large wedge, it could increase the probability to 60% for two legs down. If there is a quick and large move up in the next few weeks, it would likely act as a climax and final flag reversal, increasing the likelihood of a sell off.
Dont think just because there is no reversal yet that the market cant or wont sell off. Look at the past two sell offs from this area. They began from bull bars (Jan 18 two bar reversal), or small inconspicuous bars (Sep 18 doji to outside bear bar). But the follow through was strong and fast. Of course, this does not mean a shorter term trader cant buy and make money. Day traders can do many things investors do not or should not. But as far as a long term investment, this is simply not a safe one to buy at the current price level unless you are willing to sit through a deep pullback and scale in. And if you are - why not just wait and buy then?
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How Long to be Profitable? Trading TruthsTrading is hard work - But no one wants to hear that it is hard work. Everyone wants a short cut. A short cut does not exist. If it did - everyone would use it and the market would cease to exist. Everyone who starts out trading is lured in by the profit potential. You might get lucky and make a quick buck. But over time you soon realize that trading is a job, and a hard one at that. The markets offer the highest paid profession in the world - and it is the hardest profession. There are no set paths, clear schooling or achievements which put you into a position of earning a living.
This is an entirely different world. It is you and the market. You are responsible for the actions you make, and the repercussions or rewards which come with those actions. It takes a lot of time and effort on your part if you truly want to succeed long term in the markets. This does not just mean learning about the markets and how they operate. It also requires skills that no other job does - understanding and working on yourself internally.
Remain Humble - We all know of someone who brags about their position, their entry price or whatever. But there is something they likely do not have.. Profits. Ever wonder why the top traders dont brag or choose to talk about a position or how much they make? Because they are humble. If you do not remain humble when it comes to markets, they will humble you. If you are attached to your Ego, you will fail in the market, without question. The only question is how long will you survive?
How long does it take to be a Profitable Trader? Every beginner wants to know how long it will take before they can make a profit. This is a loaded question - with no answer. I am often asked how long until you knew you had it? Or how long does it take to become a profitable trader? People are confused by my answer when I say "you never have it, or anything." Even wildly profitable traders lose money, sometimes all of their money several times.
Trading is not about getting something, or somewhere. It is a journey, a dance. Do you dance or play the guitar to get to the end of the dance or end of the song? No, otherwise you would play or dance really fast! (Alan Watts). You play to play. You trade because you enjoy the act of trading. In other words the act of doing is the goal, not the end result. The market is a teacher who teaches you about your self. If you chose to ignore it and instead focus on what you want out of it; you probably wont get it. If instead you open yourself up, give in to it and what it is showing you; you just might get what you want.
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The Advantages of Price Action (Technical Analysis) Technical Analysis (AKA Price Action)
Technical analysis is the understanding and observing of markets through the only thing that matters; price. Prices generate similar patterns over time, in every market. A single price chart contains more information than you would ever imagine at first glance. Everything you need to know about any company, or market is on the chart in front of you. The current price is what the true value of the market is, regardless of news, indicators, or anything else.
The Advantages of Technical Analysis (Price Action)
No News - Everything you need to know is on the chart in front of you. Completely disregard all news and outside information. All news is already built into the current price. The price action of the market is all you need to know. Once you understand how institutions operate, you can follow them.
No indicators. All indicators are a derivative of price. For example a Fibonacci level. Every price on a chart is a Fibonacci level of some other price on the chart. Although they appear to work, these levels do not work because of Fibonacci. But instead due to the traders equation, which is the mathematical formula institutions use to enter and manage trades.
Clearly define support and resistance. You can see on a chart where prices are likely to do something. These are "Key entry points" or "Buy and Sell Zones."
Clearly define risk and edge. With technical trading, you have the ability to define your risk before getting into a trade. If the market does not do what you expected, and instead goes beyond your stop, you exit. Without needing to wonder about why this happened, or constantly observing the news.
Identify the strongest markets without relying on outside information like news, indicators, someone else, or a "tip." Become independent and trade for your self.
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TSLA Weekly AnalysisBear breakout of TSLA, but increased and climactic selling last week and gap down this week. Likely a sell vacuum test of the $180 low. The $240 gap above will likely get filled over the next few weeks to months. The bears need a strong breakout below 180 and 140. Otherwise bears will start to take profits and bulls will re-establish long positions. What happens when strong bears and strong bulls buy? The market can only go up. Unless the bears can demonstrate significant strength here, the bulls are more likely to take back control within the coming weeks. Therefore the next few weeks are important for both sides, and will likely determine the direction of the coming months or even years.
Emini ReviewThe Emini reversed down from a failed breakout of the all time high, and nested wedge reversal. There are trapped bulls who bought the May 3rd high who want out. Most bulls used the new high to take profits as the market is likely to transition into a trading range over the next few months or even years. However this does not mean the bulls will not get another test of the high, eventually. But the strong bull trend is less likely to resume, and instead prices will likely remain in a large bull flag trading range, where bulls and bears buy low and sell high.
Bull gaps are starting to be filled (Mar 29), which is a sign of trading range behavior. The bulls need to keep the Mar 11 gap open to prevent the bears from gaining strength. The bulls want to form a double bottom around here or the previous swing low around 2725. If the bulls are unable to form a double bottom or higher low, the bears will likely get a test of the Jan 29 micro double bottom which is the start of the tight bull channel.
There has been some signs of buying pressure over the past two weeks or so (tails below bars, bears lacking strong closes). Yesterday closed on its low, but this was likely due to a magnet affect testing the small micro double bottom from March. However, the bears will likely get some form of a second leg down from the wedge. If the bears can prevent the bulls from reaching the May 3rd close, they will have an increased chance of a large sell off and test of the December low, and bottom of the developing trading range.
TLRY Weekly Analysis Parabolic Wedge Bull FlagTLRY has formed a second entry for a parabolic wedge bull flag and larger high 2, although a doji bar. If the bulls are unable to regain control soon - something is wrong with the bull trend premise. If the bulls do not return within the next few weeks, prices are more likely to be in a trading range and will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $25. If the bulls do generate strong follow through, they will likely get two legs up at minimum, and possibly bull trend resumption.
S&P500 Bullish Falling Wedge HourlyNormally, this is a bullish pattern.
The bottom support line is key, so long as we do not break below it, the bias remains long.
However, do note that if the support breaks decisively, I expect a waterfall of selling to take place as longs who are betting on the same thing as aforementioned will be rushing for the exits,
