S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance.
Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies.
Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks.
Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility.
These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500.
// Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
MES1!
ES Morning Update March 3rdLast Friday around 1 PM, a Failed Breakdown near 5860 was triggered after multiple tests of support. Once reclaimed, it set up a strong long, and holding over the weekend paid off—now +130 points from that entry.
As of now:
• At resistance, so nothing to do but hold and wait
• 5977, 5938-40 = key supports
• If momentum continues, next upside targets are 6004, 6015-20, and 6042
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025
📈5915
📉5860
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 28thYesterday marked the sixth consecutive red day in ES—the first time since April 2024. After breaking down from a two-day base yesterday around 2pm, 5875 was the sell target, and it hit exactly at close before forming a base overnight.
As of now:
• 5875-80 is support but weakening
• Holding above keeps 5913 and 5939 in play
• If the overnight low fails, expect a dip toward 5850 area, then 5835-32
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈6016
📉5976
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025
📈6035
📉5955
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 27thES has remained in the same 6020-5930 range all week, with triggers continuing to play out well. Yesterday, I noted that 5958-62 had to hold and reclaim 5988 to spark a rally. We hit 5958-62 exactly at 8 PM, reclaimed 5988, and rallied +25 points.
As of now:
• Hold runners, as things are getting more complex
• 5996, 5988-86 must hold to keep 6020 and 6042 in play
• A break below 5986 triggers selling
$MES1! Charting to Purchase $SPY 1-DTE Call Option, 15-min TFContract: AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c
Entry: $2.03 on 1:09pm
Exit: $1.26 on 1:58pm (-$77, -38%)
So after seeing price decrease 0.75%, 45 pints, 179 pips in 2 hours from $6,023.75 to $5,980 (support area), I decided to purchase a call expiring today on Feb 27, 2025.
On the 15min and 5min I noticed price bounced around the $5,980 area and thought price would reverse to the upside.
1) Yesterday on Feb 26 @ 1:09pm, I entered AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c @$2.03 because of the drop and potential reversal.
On the 5min:
- candle had made a higher low
- became an inside (1) candle #thestrat
- began consolidating & hit support around 5,980.
2) When placing my stop loss, I mistakenly set up my option call to sell when AMEX:SPY (the stock) touched or went above $3.05 instead of programming the option call to sell when the specific option call ( AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c) touched or went above $3.05.
You live and you learn.
On to the next play.
ES Morning Update Feb 26thDespite all the volatility yesterday, ES is right back where it started. After holding ~5933 support, the target was 5996, a major resistance shelf. As expected, it’s taking time to break through and has held all night.
As of now:
• Hold the runner
• Staying above 5988 keeps 6004, 6015, and 6020+ in play
• If 5988 fails, expect a dip toward 5962-58
ES Morning Update Feb 25thYesterday, all attention was on the 5993 area in ES. I expected a rally back up to 6043 off that level, and we saw it hold in the morning before pushing back to 6043. Later into the close, the market retested 5993 area again, sparking a 20-point rally. Overnight, a strong flush occurred, but the level was reclaimed, printing a textbook failed breakdown—5993 is now pretty used up in my opinion.
As of now:
• 6016-20, 6037 are the next targets
• 5996-93 (weak) and 5980 are serving as supports
• If these supports fail, expect a leg down below
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025
📈6075, 6095
📉6035, 6015
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/21/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/21/2025
📈6135-6145
📉6115-6105
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/20/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/20/2025
📈6155-6165
📉6135-6125
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning UpdateIt’s been three days of trading within the 6120-6154 range in ES. Yesterday, I was watching for a test of 6129 with a final target at 6154 and a bonus at 6168. 6129 held precisely, and the market rallied to 6167.
As of now:
• Let the runners work—avoid overtrading
• 6145 is acting as weak support, keeping 6154, 6167, and 6185 in play
• If 6145 fails, expect a dip toward 6133, then 6123
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/19/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/19/25
📈6150-6155
📉6120-6115
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update/Chart Sent Out Yesterday6120 continues to be a money magnet in ES. Yesterday’s approach was simple: the 6116-20 zone had to hold to keep 6138 and 6154+ in play. It held perfectly, and we ran to 6157—so just hold your runners.
As of now:
• We’re in a complex flag between 6129 and 6154
• 6129 must hold and rebound by 38 points to unlock targets at 45 and 54+
• If 6129 fails, expect a dip toward 6116, then 6109
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25
📈6170
📉6135
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 18thPatience paid off for buyers. Friday morning, longs were triggered off 6120 support in ES, forming a solid flag from 6120 to 6147. The breakout target at 6154 was hit around 2am unfortunately, so now it’s time to protect gains and let the runners ride if you have them. No new entries unless we get some dips first.
As of now:
• Next targets are 6168 and 6185-88
• 6138 is holding as support
• If the price dips back to 6120, prepare to sell below that level
ES Morning Update NYSE is closed and ES wrapped up early at 1pm. No change from Friday—just let those runners work. On Friday, as outlined in the plan, I was looking for a rally from 6120 to 6137-43, and we achieved that move.
As of now:
• 6120-6143 is forming a flag
• This setup paves the way for targets at 6154, 6168, and 6184 when ready
• A dip below 6120 signals a sell
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25
📈6100-6120
📉6060-6040
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(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 14thYesterday morning, a reclaim of 6066-70 zone in ES kicked off an easy long trigger, with 6125 set as the final target and 6139 as a bonus. We managed to tag 6139 overnight before the market pulled back to 6125.
As of now:
• Let the runners keep working, as thats all i do on Fridays mainly.
• 6120-23 is acting as support (it held, but it’s showing some weakness).
• Holding above this level keeps 6133, 6137, and 6154 in play.
• If 6120 fails, expect a dip to 6113, then 6098.
Inflation Fears Weigh More than China Tech GainsDeepSeek Is Not the Market’s Biggest Concern
Over the past few days following the emergence of DeepSeek, Nasdaq or technology stocks have experienced a notable 6% decline across all major U.S. indices. However, this recent pullback pales in comparison to the more substantial drop seen in December.
Small-Cap Stocks Take a Bigger Hit
The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., suffered an even sharper decline, falling by 12%. This suggests that broader economic concerns, beyond just the tech sector, are weighing on investor sentiment.
Then, What Is It?
On December 18, during the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.5%. However, it wasn’t the rate cut that rattled the market—it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that followed.
“… the median participant projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.9% at the end of 2025, indicating expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025, down from the four projected in the previous summary.”
This statement signaled that the Fed remains hawkish on inflation, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously projected four. As a result, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated at around 3.9%, a scenario that investors had not fully priced in. The market reacted negatively, with indices falling sharply over the subsequent weeks.
Market Stabilization Amid China Tech Competition
Despite the recent downturn, there are signs of stabilization, with major indices still maintaining their position along an established uptrend line. As long as inflation continues to ease—hovering around 3% or, ideally, heading toward the Fed’s 2% target—the broader market outlook remains positive.
From a strategic standpoint, I will continue to focus on buying dips if the market respects the uptrend line. However, if hopes for rate cuts in 2025 fade and the trend begins to break below key support levels, my strategy will shift toward selling into strength when opportunities arise.
Short-Term Trading Outlook
To refine my trading decisions, I have also drawn trendlines on an hourly chart. Applying the same uptrend principles, these lines serve as a guideline for short-term trading in the Micro S&P 500 futures.
With the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 3%—higher than expected—I will be closely monitoring my daily chart's uptrend line.
While external economic conditions remain unpredictable, adapting trading strategies in response to market trends is key to staying ahead.
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: ES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $12.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: MES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading competition: www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ES Morning Update CPI DayYesterday’s setup came from a failed breakdown of the 6066-70 zone at 9:30 AM in ES. The daily target of 6093 was reached at 11 AM, and sellers have held below that level since. With CPI scheduled at 8:30 AM today, it’s time to let the runners work if you have them. Or sit on hands til after
As of now:
• 6078 and 6066-70 must hold through any CPI traps to keep 6109, 6115, and 6126+ in play
• If the price dips below 6066, expect a move down to 6020
Check my CPI Trading Guide I sent out yesterday evening on how to trade days like today.