ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 20thYesterday, buyers delivered a textbook setup: a Failed Breakdown at the key 5886 level, which triggering longs. The 5956 target, as outlined, was hit perfectly overnight.
As of now: Let runners ride until the move concludes. Supports are 5943 (weak) and 5928. If we base here, 5963 and 5972+ are the next targets. A failure of 5928 would signal a deeper dip.
MES1!
Trading Gameplan For Nov 18thPlan for Monday’s Session
Supports:
• Major: 5886-88, 5864, 5843-46, 5828, 5806, 5796-5802, 5758, 5749, 5730.
• Minor: 5892, 5878, 5871, 5855, 5849, 5839, 5819, 5812, 5787, 5782, 5773, 5768.
Context and Strategy:
Friday’s session was a strong downside trend day (open-to-close selling) with limited support reactions. As we often see, sharp sell-offs like Friday are often followed by their counterpart: the short squeeze and the question of whether we’ll recover a significant portion of the decline shouldn't be asked. While the timing of such events is unpredictable (further downside is always possible), they typically happen when a major resistance level is reclaimed, which I’ll cover here. For now, with bears still holding control, any attempts to buy at support levels carry the high risk of trying to catch a falling knife, which i often talk about how risky those are alone. On a strong trend day like Friday when bears are in control, all supports - by definition of being a trend day to the downside - will fail. They may react, they may produce a quick level to level bounce, but typically they will generally all fail. This will remain true on Monday until we recover some major resistances. A failed breakdown of Friday’s low (5878) could spark a potential short squeeze, but once again, unless a significant resistance level is reclaimed, all longs should be treated with high caution.
The next support magnet below Friday’s lows is 5843-46, with 5828 and 5806 as deeper downside levels if selling persists. Patience is key, particularly in a downtrend context like this.
Key Levels:
1. Friday’s Low (5878): Critical for both bulls and bears. Watch for a potential flush below this level, ideally down to 5871, followed by a reclaim that could trigger a short squeeze.
2. 5886-88: Heavily traded on Friday and no longer fresh. Safer to wait for a failed breakdown or another deeper level to engage.
3. 5864: A possible bounce zone but still considered high-risk.
4. 5843-46: Strong support below. If selling accelerates, this level offers better odds for a reaction.
5. 5828 & 5806: Major levels for any extended sell.
Resistances:
• Major: 5907-10, 5945-50, 5961, 5980, 5998-6002, 6009, 6066, 6080-82, 6103, 6131, 6141, 6152.
• Minor: 5899, 5917, 5928, 5934, 5935, 5943, 5947, 5957, 5967, 5972, 5975, 5993, 6014, 6019, 6027, 6032, 6038, 6045, 6050, 6058, 6071, 6092.
Bull Case:
• Bulls need to reclaim 5907-10 to show any meaningful recovery effort. A reclaim here could set up a bounce toward 5948-50 or 5961 for a back-test.
• Ideal setup: A dip to 5871 or below early on, forming a failed breakdown of Friday’s low, followed by basing and a push back above 5907-10. This could trigger an easy short squeeze targeting higher major resistances.
• Without a reclaim of 5961, any upside remains corrective, and the "short the pop" sentiment is still in charge.
Bear Case:
• Bears remain in control and will likely defend resistances near 5907-10 or 5948-50 if price retraces. These are logical zones for fresh shorts to initiate.
• Continuation selling begins with a breakdown below 5878. Watch for traps, as 80% of breakdowns tend to fail. If there’s no meaningful recovery, selling could extend toward 5843-46 or 5828.
• Preferred short entry: A failed bounce near resistance (5948-50 or 5961) or after a structural breakdown below 5878.
Summary for Monday:
• Expect potential bounce attempts to test breakdown zones like 5907-10 or 5948-50, but any upside remains corrective unless bulls reclaim 5961.
• A flush below Friday’s low (5878) may trigger a failed breakdown setup, sparking a short squeeze.
• Below 5878, next support magnets are 5864, 5843-46, and 5828
• Exercise caution with longs; focus on reactions at key levels. Shorts remain favorable until resistance zones are reclaimed.
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GL y'all. Cheers, @Pandorra 😎
Es levels and targets Nov14thAfter last week’s 330-point rally, ES has been following its usual routine after a big move: consolidation, forming a flag. Resistance/target sits at 6028-32, marking yesterday’s highs, and 6009 support held overnight. Don’t overtrade.
As of now: 6009=support. This level keeps 6032, 6038, and ATHs in play. Breakdown only kicks in if 5996-98 fails.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 13thYesterday, ES saw its first pullback after last week’s 330-point rally. We got a dip to 5986.75, bouncing up 40 points from there. With CPI on deck in 15 mins, it’s time to size down.
Plan for now: Key supports at 6002 (weak) and 5988. A reclaim of 6009 opens up targets at 6019 and 6032-33. If 5988 breaks, look for an initial dip to 5972.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov7thOn Wednesday, buyers triggered longs at 5902, sending us all the way to our 6013 target right to the tick yesterday. Now investors are taking a breather, holding around 6000 for the last 17 hours. I often mention how the day after trend legs are experienced traders’ least favorite days to trade. Longs are risky do to chasing. Shorts are risky due to being against the trend. And because of these two, the chance for chop is VERY high. Keep this in your head today…and after day after rallies.
As of now: Continue holding runners if you have them from yesterday. Expect chop between 6009-5979, with 6000 acting as a mid-pivot point. Levels to watch are 6009-13, and 6035-38 if we push higher. If 5978 breaks, a dip is finally on the table.
ES levels and targets Nov 7thOvernight, buyers hit major targets. Yesterday’s 5902 support held as expected, setting up for a move back to 5954 and then 5975, which we’re at now. Reminder: FOMC at 2pm today. Lock in gains, leave a small runner if you have them—any further upside is a bonus for buyers today
As of now: 5992 and 6006-07 are in play if buyers wants more. Weak support at 5950; a dip below could head toward 5925.
ES Levels and Targets Nov 4thOn Friday, 5802 was the primary target for ES as a major backtest, and we saw a sell-off from there. The 5740 support, talked about Sunday in group, held exactly on target with a bounce last night.
As of now: 5760 is today’s support level. Already defended once. Holding above it keeps 5779, 5792, and 5797-5802 in play. If 5760 breaks, a retest of 5740 is sellers target, which is now a weaker support.
Full Trading Plan For Monday Nov 4thPlan for Monday
Supports:
• Major: 5760-63, 5740, 5728-30, 5712, 5692, 5677, 5661, 5646-50, 5616, 5599-5602, 5590, 5575, 5563, 5544, 5524-28, 5499-5502
• Minor: 5756, 5751, 5745, 5723, 5715, 5702, 5683, 5672, 5667, 5654, 5638, 5633, 5627, 5621, 5578, 5558, 5552, 5534, 5517, 5511, 5506
Overview:
We’re moving into a high-volatility week with the upcoming election and FOMC. Most volatility is expected post-election (Tuesday evening and Wednesday) with FOMC on Thursday, creating a challenging trading environment with broad, two-way swings. Conditions should be favorable for failed breakdowns, with more detailed guidance to come in other days plans this week. For now, we saw organized price movement: elevator down on Thursday, short squeeze relief on Friday, back-testing 5802, then rejection. Bulls haven’t reclaimed significant levels (like 5802), but they’ve held prior lows, and the 5802 rejection was gradual. The relief bounce remains live until 5728-30 fails. Closing near 5760-63, this level could pop again, but headline risk suggests waiting until Sunday’s open for an entry. Below, a strong support cluster sits at 5740 and 5728-30. Testing 5740 could be viable, but 5728-30 is a safer bid zone, especially if it sets up a failed breakdown near recent lows. If this zone breaks, it’s likely we’ll see an “elevator down” scenario like Thursday. Below 5728-30, I’m not rushing to long, but levels like 5712, 5692, and 5677 could be interesting zones for potential reactions, especially 5677.
Key Zones for Monday:
• 5740: Major support; bears might push through. Look for a possible recovery above 5740 as a sign for a long setup.
• 5728-30: Critical support; if breached, approach with caution, i will be waiting for clear failed breakdowns before entering here
• 5712, 5692, and 5677: Areas of interest lower down. These levels may offer potential entries, but patience is advised to observe reactions.
Resistances:
• Major: 5783, 5797-5802, 5820, 5826-28, 5854, 5864, 5880, 5886, 5911, 5919-22, 5937, 5953, 5965, 5976
• Minor: 5770, 5779, 5792, 5807, 5813, 5838, 5842, 5848, 5861, 5868, 5873, 5892, 5898, 5902, 5906, 5914, 5928, 5944,
The back-test short setup off 5802 worked well on Friday. Revisiting 5797-5802 on Monday may yield another short opportunity, though it’s not as fresh. Safer shorts may present at 5820 or 5826-28, which should produce a more decisive reaction.
Bull Case for Monday:
Bulls haven’t done much to show control but have managed to survive. The relief bounce holds as long as 5728-30 doesn’t break, suggesting continued back-tests of Thursday’s major breakdown zones. This scenario sees 5740 or 5728-30 holding on deep flushes. In an ideal setup, bulls maintain above 5760 and push up directly. A typical path might involve a test of 5802, followed by a dip, filling out the range, then advancing to 5826-28. Adding around 5760-63 or pops above 5670 may be worth exploring, but patience is recommended.
Bear Case for Monday:
The bear case strengthens if 5728-30 fails. As noted daily, breakdown trades below support carry risks. Failed breakdowns are often the norm, with roughly 80% of breakdown attempts resulting in traps. These setups are advanced and should be executed cautiously. Even for skilled traders, over 60% of breakdown trades may fail, with only the occasional setup yielding high returns. If this risk isn’t tolerable, or if you’re newer to trading, it’s wise to avoid these trades. I generally avoid chasing setups; the zone needs to be tested with a clear failed breakdown before shorting, potentially around 5723 or below based on the structure.
Summary for Monday:
The focus remains on the election. We’re in a relief bounce from Thursday’s lows. My bias leans toward a continuation of this bounce, potentially revisiting 5797-5802, then dipping to target 5828. If 5728-30 breaks, the relief bounce is invalid, likely initiating a next leg lower, potentially below 5700.
ES levels and targets Oct 29thAfter rallying to the 5882 target yesterday, ES spent the rest of the day chopping around 5864-65 support. This level remains the pivot/magnet of a two-week range, and we’re not done with it yet—it was lost overnight.
As of now: 5843-46 is the next major support level below. If that doesn’t hold, look for 5834 and 5815. Bulls need to reclaim 5855 to rally back toward 5864-65, with 5878+ beyond that.
Full Trading Plan For ES/SPX Oct 25thPlan for Friday:
Supports:
• Major: 5842, 5825, 5805-07, 5787, 5763, 5756, 5746, 5725-29, 5711, 5690
• Minor: 5853, 5848, 5838, 5818, 5814, 5798, 5783, 5774, 5768, 5751, 5740, 5733, 5715, 5702, 5695
Overview:
Today was a straightforward backtest of 5864 followed by a dip, then a return to that level, marking a typical rangebound day. We are now in a new consolidation range between 5865-68 and 5825. Trading within this range could be tricky and highly technical, so predicting is a losing strategy. For tomorrow, I’ll trade light, expecting continued chop unless the 5865-68 resistance clears.
Key Zones for Tomorrow:
• 5842 is the first support down but is now less reliable due to today’s battleground. If ES dips to 5838 and reclaims it, I may consider going long, but only if no new highs above today’s peak are made first.
• Below 5838, expect a fast flush to 5825 (major support). I’d consider a long here if there’s a failed breakdown of today’s low (~5822), meaning a recovery above 5825 after a brief flush. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that bears still have control, and longs become riskier. The next key long interest is 5805-07 or failed breakdowns of yesterday’s low.
• Deeper support for long interest would be 5756 if we see a larger flush.
Resistances:
• Major: 5865-68, 5882, 5890-92, 5910, 5919, 5945-47, 5971
• Minor: 5861, 5878, 5886, 5899, 5902, 5907, 5914, 5927, 5933, 5940, 5958, 5966
We haven’t cleared the significant 5865-68 resistance yet. Even if we pop up there tomorrow, another dip is likely before any breakout. If we do break through, we could see a squeeze up to 5882, potentially followed by a dip before pushing higher to 5892. If the breakout continues, we may see a push toward new ATHs in the next leg up.
For those interested in shorting, 5882 is a potential level. However, I won’t be shorting above 5865-68.
Buyers Case Tomorrow:
Buyers case would see ES continue to consolidate between 5825 and 5865 before breaking to the upside. The scenario would likely involve a pop to 5865-68, followed by one more dip (could be significant or small), and then a breakout targeting 5882 and 5892. Afterward, a dip may happen before pushing higher toward ATHs.
• I’ll keep an eye on 5842 for long opportunities on dips and potential recoveries at 5848.
Sellers Case Tomorrow:
Sellers need to break 5825 to regain control. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that the recent dip was not a one-off. However, breakdown trades are risky as 80% of breakdowns typically trap traders. These setups require a high skill level and may fail multiple times before paying off significantly.
• I won’t chase shorts after a 30-point sell-off. I’d prefer to see 5825 tested, or a failed breakdown of today’s low before shorting under the bounce structure (possibly around 5818 or higher).
Summary for Tomorrow:
• Expect consolidation between 5825 and 5865-68 with potential ping pong price action.
• Leaning toward a pop to 5865-68, then possibly a dip before breaking out higher to 5882+.
• If 5825 fails, we could see further selling.
Trade cautiously in this consolidation range, as the price can take complex, unpredictable paths.
ES levels and targets Oct23rdYesterday, my target in ES was 5902. That’s exactly where the high of the day was set. The pattern remains the same: rally during the day, dip overnight.
As of now: 5868 is the key support and next level down. Bulls need to recover 5887 if they want to push directly back to 5902+.
ES levels and targets Oct 22ndSince Thursday, ES has been all about one level: 5892, acting as a magnet. Yesterday, we saw a failed breakdown at 5878, with targets at 5892 and 5902. We hit 5902 but sellers rejected overnight.
As of now: Supports are at 5867 and 5855-57. Bulls need to reclaim 5878 to push back toward 5892+. If 5855 fails, 5843 is next down.
Full Plan for Monday Oct 21stPlan for Monday:
Supports:
• Major: 5892, 5878, 5869, 5850, 5820, 5802-05, 5787, 5770, 5752, 5734, 5710, 5683, 5676, 5657-60
• Minor: 5882, 5871, 5862, 5857, 5842, 5834, 5828, 5814, 5796, 5782, 5779, 5763, 5755, 5746, 5740, 5725, 5721, 5715, 5708-10, 5702, 5693, 5679, 5669, 5666
What I’m Watching:
We are inside a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, but the tighter consolidation within this range (5892 to 5915) is becoming tricky due to the deep use of these levels. Flexibility is key when trading in this range.
For Monday, 5892 is the first major support, though it’s been overused and may no longer be reliable. I’d prefer to wait for a reaction there, with safer longs only coming if we reclaim 5902 after testing lower. If 5892 fails, a selloff could follow, a common occurrence for Monday. Below that, 5878 is the next key level down, but I’m less inclined to take long positions here unless we see a failed breakdown with a recovery back above 5869. If we get a further breakdown, 5850 becomes the key line of defense before a potential flush down to 5820.
Resistances:
• Major: 5900-02, 5914, 5933, 5945, 5956, 5962, 5997-6000, 6007, 6040-45, 6070, 6098
• Minor: 5907, 5922, 5935, 5951
Bull Case for Monday:
We’re in a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, with bulls still holding the advantage as long as this structure remains intact. The tighter range of 5892 to 5915 will likely dictate the early moves. For the bulls, the ideal scenario is to hold above 5892, base out, and then rally to 5933 and beyond.
As loose concepts though, I’d consider any flagging that does not make a new high above Friday’s high and that holds 5900 or 5892 (bonus if we flush to 5892 and recover 5900) as being very bullish and worth adding.
In the “ultra bull case,” we wouldn’t even lose 5892, quickly basing above 5900, which could lead to a squeeze toward 5933 and potentially higher.
Bear Case for Monday:
The bear case becomes relevant if 5850 breaks down. Breakdowns are tricky and often trap traders (80% failure rate), so it’s a low-win rate but high-reward setup. If 5892 fails, we could see some downside pressure, with 5878 and then 5850 as key supports. If these levels don’t hold, we could see a sharper selloff toward 5820 or lower.
However, I am obviously not going to just short below 5850 after selling 60 points there from here. I’d need to see a strong bounce there or a failed breakdown, see longs work, and only then would I consider shorting under wherever the structure (lows) are at the time—this could be around 5847. On a shorter-term basis, there may be a short opportunity if 5892 fails. This level has been heavily worked, but it’s ideal to see one more bounce attempt there, and then short just under the low of that bounce. Be careful here, as we could easily flush to 5869 and then squeeze back up. If I do short, I would exit and be willing to switch long.
Summary for Monday:
We’re stuck in a consolidation range between 5915 and 5850, with 5892 to 5915 being the tighter range within. The market could ping-pong between these levels before making a more decisive move. My lean remains to defer to the overall trend, with a preference for buying dips unless key supports like 5850 fail. A break of 5892 could lead to a Monday dip, but as long as bulls hold 5850, the broader structure remains bullish, targeting 5933+.
Es levels and targets Oct 17thAfter a slow start yesterday, ES finally made its move. Yesterday’s targets were 5882 (hit), 5892 (hit), and 5902 (to backtest Tuesday’s breakdown), which we cleared overnight.
As of now: Protect profits if you’re long. 5902 is key support. It must hold to keep 5914, 5918, and 5928+ in play. If 5902 fails, look for a dip back to 5892.
Daily Morning Update: ES levels and targets Oct 16thYesterday, ES triggered its first short since October 7 by dropping below 5895. The targets were 5878 and 5866, and we’ve been sitting around 5866 all overnight. We’re now in a neutral to bearish phase, aside from any relief pops.
As of now: 5866 is acting as the magnet, with 5857 as support. 5878 is the next target, with 5892 above that. If 5857 breaks, 5842 next will be next down, with 5830-33 as the next zone to watch.
ES levels and targets Oct 14thIt’s been pure charting 101. Last Thursday, ES built a textbook bull flag between 5815-5840. Breakout targets were 5858-60, then 5874, which we just hit perfectly.
As of now: Let the runners do the work until the first post-flag sell-off. 5868 is support, keeping 5873-74 (again) and 5888-90 in play. If we drop, watch for 5838-42 below.
ES levels and targets Oct 11After Wednesday’s breakout, 5840-5815 became the new flag, just as expected. ES respected those levels, with 5815 tested five times and 5840 three times.
As of now: No change. 5815 and 5809-11 (weak) are support levels. As long as they hold, 5829 and 5840 remain in play, with a potential breakout. If 5809 fails, 5792 next down
ES levels and targets oct 7thLast week friday, I was expecting a rally to 5800+, and now we’re seeing the typical “Monday Morning Hangover” play out with the pullback I mentioned in the plan.
As of now: 5763 is weak support. We need to reclaim 5782 for buyers to push for 5796+. If 5763 fails, 5746-43 next down.
Full plan for today linked below
ES/SPX Plan For Oct 7thPlan for Monday:
Supports:
• 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major).
What I’m Watching:
• We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold.
• I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long.
• The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky.
Resistances:
• 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major).
• As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers.
Buyer’s Case for Monday:
• The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday.
Seller’s Case for Monday:
• The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771.
Summary for Monday:
• The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
ES Levels and targets Oct. 3rdThis week has pretty much revolved around one key level in ES: 5740, which has trapped shorts multiple times now. Yesterday, we saw a huge failed breakdown there. Targets were 5754 (hit), 5763 (hit), and 5773 (hit). We just had another failed breakdown at 7 AM this morning, pushing us up right back to the first target 5754 again and here now
As of now: No change—as long as buyers keep 5740-42 holding on dips, 5763, 5773, and 5780+ are still in play. If 5740 fails, 5729-27 and 5712 next down
ES levels and targets Oct 1st5773 has been the key level to watch in ES. We dropped below it yesterday, printed a failed breakdown, and reclaiming 5773 rallied us toward the 8523 target
As of now: 5799 to 5820 is a chop zone. Holding it opens the door for 5828 and 5835-40 as next upside targets. If 5799 breaks, 5781 next down, which bulls will really need to defend.
ES levels and targets sept 30thLast week ES was stuck in a chop range between 5823-30 and 5773. On Friday, I was eyeing a rally to resistance, and we hit it. Now back at support, but it’s very weak now and well-tested.
As of now: Bulls need to react fast and recover 5783 for one last rally attempt in my opinion. If 5773 fails, 5763 and 5754 next down.