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MES1!

ES/SPX levels and targets Nov7thOn Wednesday, buyers triggered longs at 5902, sending us all the way to our 6013 target right to the tick yesterday. Now investors are taking a breather, holding around 6000 for the last 17 hours. I often mention how the day after trend legs are experienced traders’ least favorite days to trade. Longs are risky do to chasing. Shorts are risky due to being against the trend. And because of these two, the chance for chop is VERY high. Keep this in your head today…and after day after rallies. As of now: Continue holding runners if you have them from yesterday. Expect chop between 6009-5979, with 6000 acting as a mid-pivot point. Levels to watch are 6009-13, and 6035-38 if we push higher. If 5978 breaks, a dip is finally on the table.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full Trading Plan For Monday Nov 4thPlan for Monday Supports: • Major: 5760-63, 5740, 5728-30, 5712, 5692, 5677, 5661, 5646-50, 5616, 5599-5602, 5590, 5575, 5563, 5544, 5524-28, 5499-5502 • Minor: 5756, 5751, 5745, 5723, 5715, 5702, 5683, 5672, 5667, 5654, 5638, 5633, 5627, 5621, 5578, 5558, 5552, 5534, 5517, 5511, 5506 Overview: We’re moving into a high-volatility week with the upcoming election and FOMC. Most volatility is expected post-election (Tuesday evening and Wednesday) with FOMC on Thursday, creating a challenging trading environment with broad, two-way swings. Conditions should be favorable for failed breakdowns, with more detailed guidance to come in other days plans this week. For now, we saw organized price movement: elevator down on Thursday, short squeeze relief on Friday, back-testing 5802, then rejection. Bulls haven’t reclaimed significant levels (like 5802), but they’ve held prior lows, and the 5802 rejection was gradual. The relief bounce remains live until 5728-30 fails. Closing near 5760-63, this level could pop again, but headline risk suggests waiting until Sunday’s open for an entry. Below, a strong support cluster sits at 5740 and 5728-30. Testing 5740 could be viable, but 5728-30 is a safer bid zone, especially if it sets up a failed breakdown near recent lows. If this zone breaks, it’s likely we’ll see an “elevator down” scenario like Thursday. Below 5728-30, I’m not rushing to long, but levels like 5712, 5692, and 5677 could be interesting zones for potential reactions, especially 5677. Key Zones for Monday: • 5740: Major support; bears might push through. Look for a possible recovery above 5740 as a sign for a long setup. • 5728-30: Critical support; if breached, approach with caution, i will be waiting for clear failed breakdowns before entering here • 5712, 5692, and 5677: Areas of interest lower down. These levels may offer potential entries, but patience is advised to observe reactions. Resistances: • Major: 5783, 5797-5802, 5820, 5826-28, 5854, 5864, 5880, 5886, 5911, 5919-22, 5937, 5953, 5965, 5976 • Minor: 5770, 5779, 5792, 5807, 5813, 5838, 5842, 5848, 5861, 5868, 5873, 5892, 5898, 5902, 5906, 5914, 5928, 5944, The back-test short setup off 5802 worked well on Friday. Revisiting 5797-5802 on Monday may yield another short opportunity, though it’s not as fresh. Safer shorts may present at 5820 or 5826-28, which should produce a more decisive reaction. Bull Case for Monday: Bulls haven’t done much to show control but have managed to survive. The relief bounce holds as long as 5728-30 doesn’t break, suggesting continued back-tests of Thursday’s major breakdown zones. This scenario sees 5740 or 5728-30 holding on deep flushes. In an ideal setup, bulls maintain above 5760 and push up directly. A typical path might involve a test of 5802, followed by a dip, filling out the range, then advancing to 5826-28. Adding around 5760-63 or pops above 5670 may be worth exploring, but patience is recommended. Bear Case for Monday: The bear case strengthens if 5728-30 fails. As noted daily, breakdown trades below support carry risks. Failed breakdowns are often the norm, with roughly 80% of breakdown attempts resulting in traps. These setups are advanced and should be executed cautiously. Even for skilled traders, over 60% of breakdown trades may fail, with only the occasional setup yielding high returns. If this risk isn’t tolerable, or if you’re newer to trading, it’s wise to avoid these trades. I generally avoid chasing setups; the zone needs to be tested with a clear failed breakdown before shorting, potentially around 5723 or below based on the structure. Summary for Monday: The focus remains on the election. We’re in a relief bounce from Thursday’s lows. My bias leans toward a continuation of this bounce, potentially revisiting 5797-5802, then dipping to target 5828. If 5728-30 breaks, the relief bounce is invalid, likely initiating a next leg lower, potentially below 5700.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full Trading Plan For ES/SPX Oct 25thPlan for Friday: Supports: • Major: 5842, 5825, 5805-07, 5787, 5763, 5756, 5746, 5725-29, 5711, 5690 • Minor: 5853, 5848, 5838, 5818, 5814, 5798, 5783, 5774, 5768, 5751, 5740, 5733, 5715, 5702, 5695 Overview: Today was a straightforward backtest of 5864 followed by a dip, then a return to that level, marking a typical rangebound day. We are now in a new consolidation range between 5865-68 and 5825. Trading within this range could be tricky and highly technical, so predicting is a losing strategy. For tomorrow, I’ll trade light, expecting continued chop unless the 5865-68 resistance clears. Key Zones for Tomorrow: • 5842 is the first support down but is now less reliable due to today’s battleground. If ES dips to 5838 and reclaims it, I may consider going long, but only if no new highs above today’s peak are made first. • Below 5838, expect a fast flush to 5825 (major support). I’d consider a long here if there’s a failed breakdown of today’s low (~5822), meaning a recovery above 5825 after a brief flush. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that bears still have control, and longs become riskier. The next key long interest is 5805-07 or failed breakdowns of yesterday’s low. • Deeper support for long interest would be 5756 if we see a larger flush. Resistances: • Major: 5865-68, 5882, 5890-92, 5910, 5919, 5945-47, 5971 • Minor: 5861, 5878, 5886, 5899, 5902, 5907, 5914, 5927, 5933, 5940, 5958, 5966 We haven’t cleared the significant 5865-68 resistance yet. Even if we pop up there tomorrow, another dip is likely before any breakout. If we do break through, we could see a squeeze up to 5882, potentially followed by a dip before pushing higher to 5892. If the breakout continues, we may see a push toward new ATHs in the next leg up. For those interested in shorting, 5882 is a potential level. However, I won’t be shorting above 5865-68. Buyers Case Tomorrow: Buyers case would see ES continue to consolidate between 5825 and 5865 before breaking to the upside. The scenario would likely involve a pop to 5865-68, followed by one more dip (could be significant or small), and then a breakout targeting 5882 and 5892. Afterward, a dip may happen before pushing higher toward ATHs. • I’ll keep an eye on 5842 for long opportunities on dips and potential recoveries at 5848. Sellers Case Tomorrow: Sellers need to break 5825 to regain control. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that the recent dip was not a one-off. However, breakdown trades are risky as 80% of breakdowns typically trap traders. These setups require a high skill level and may fail multiple times before paying off significantly. • I won’t chase shorts after a 30-point sell-off. I’d prefer to see 5825 tested, or a failed breakdown of today’s low before shorting under the bounce structure (possibly around 5818 or higher). Summary for Tomorrow: • Expect consolidation between 5825 and 5865-68 with potential ping pong price action. • Leaning toward a pop to 5865-68, then possibly a dip before breaking out higher to 5882+. • If 5825 fails, we could see further selling. Trade cautiously in this consolidation range, as the price can take complex, unpredictable paths.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full Plan for Monday Oct 21stPlan for Monday: Supports: • Major: 5892, 5878, 5869, 5850, 5820, 5802-05, 5787, 5770, 5752, 5734, 5710, 5683, 5676, 5657-60 • Minor: 5882, 5871, 5862, 5857, 5842, 5834, 5828, 5814, 5796, 5782, 5779, 5763, 5755, 5746, 5740, 5725, 5721, 5715, 5708-10, 5702, 5693, 5679, 5669, 5666 What I’m Watching: We are inside a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, but the tighter consolidation within this range (5892 to 5915) is becoming tricky due to the deep use of these levels. Flexibility is key when trading in this range. For Monday, 5892 is the first major support, though it’s been overused and may no longer be reliable. I’d prefer to wait for a reaction there, with safer longs only coming if we reclaim 5902 after testing lower. If 5892 fails, a selloff could follow, a common occurrence for Monday. Below that, 5878 is the next key level down, but I’m less inclined to take long positions here unless we see a failed breakdown with a recovery back above 5869. If we get a further breakdown, 5850 becomes the key line of defense before a potential flush down to 5820. Resistances: • Major: 5900-02, 5914, 5933, 5945, 5956, 5962, 5997-6000, 6007, 6040-45, 6070, 6098 • Minor: 5907, 5922, 5935, 5951 Bull Case for Monday: We’re in a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, with bulls still holding the advantage as long as this structure remains intact. The tighter range of 5892 to 5915 will likely dictate the early moves. For the bulls, the ideal scenario is to hold above 5892, base out, and then rally to 5933 and beyond. As loose concepts though, I’d consider any flagging that does not make a new high above Friday’s high and that holds 5900 or 5892 (bonus if we flush to 5892 and recover 5900) as being very bullish and worth adding. In the “ultra bull case,” we wouldn’t even lose 5892, quickly basing above 5900, which could lead to a squeeze toward 5933 and potentially higher. Bear Case for Monday: The bear case becomes relevant if 5850 breaks down. Breakdowns are tricky and often trap traders (80% failure rate), so it’s a low-win rate but high-reward setup. If 5892 fails, we could see some downside pressure, with 5878 and then 5850 as key supports. If these levels don’t hold, we could see a sharper selloff toward 5820 or lower. However, I am obviously not going to just short below 5850 after selling 60 points there from here. I’d need to see a strong bounce there or a failed breakdown, see longs work, and only then would I consider shorting under wherever the structure (lows) are at the time—this could be around 5847. On a shorter-term basis, there may be a short opportunity if 5892 fails. This level has been heavily worked, but it’s ideal to see one more bounce attempt there, and then short just under the low of that bounce. Be careful here, as we could easily flush to 5869 and then squeeze back up. If I do short, I would exit and be willing to switch long. Summary for Monday: We’re stuck in a consolidation range between 5915 and 5850, with 5892 to 5915 being the tighter range within. The market could ping-pong between these levels before making a more decisive move. My lean remains to defer to the overall trend, with a preference for buying dips unless key supports like 5850 fail. A break of 5892 could lead to a Monday dip, but as long as bulls hold 5850, the broader structure remains bullish, targeting 5933+.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES/SPX Plan For Oct 7thPlan for Monday: Supports: • 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major). What I’m Watching: • We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold. • I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long. • The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky. Resistances: • 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major). • As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers. Buyer’s Case for Monday: • The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday. Seller’s Case for Monday: • The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771. Summary for Monday: • The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES Levels and targets Oct. 3rdThis week has pretty much revolved around one key level in ES: 5740, which has trapped shorts multiple times now. Yesterday, we saw a huge failed breakdown there. Targets were 5754 (hit), 5763 (hit), and 5773 (hit). We just had another failed breakdown at 7 AM this morning, pushing us up right back to the first target 5754 again and here now As of now: No change—as long as buyers keep 5740-42 holding on dips, 5763, 5773, and 5780+ are still in play. If 5740 fails, 5729-27 and 5712 next down
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full ES Trading Plan for MondayPlan For Monday: • Supports: 5755 (major), 5751, 5746, 5738-40 (major), 5733, 5729, 5726 (major), 5721, 5711, 5698-5702 (major), 5690, 5685, 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5661, 5655 (major), 5646, 5638 (major). • Levels to Bid Direct: • After a 120-point squeeze last week, ES spent friday in consolidation mode. Remember, trend days like last Thursday are anomalies and are typically followed by either a price correction (selloff) or time correction (consolidation). Friday, we saw the latter. • For Monday, I view 5738-40 to 5782 as potential chop. We could see a repeat of friday’s ping-pong price action, requiring flexible level-to-level trading. 5738-40 is now range support, and while it’s been well-tested friday, it may have one more bid left in it, provided we don’t break above Thursday’s highs first. • If 5738-40 fails, 5726 becomes the next magnet. While we’ve consolidated, there hasn’t been a significant selloff after the rally, so caution with new longs below 5738-40 is warranted. Markets love to condition dip buyers before flipping to deeper pullbacks. If 5726-28 breaks, 5698-5702 is the final support before a sharper leg down, where a small knife catch long could be considered. Below here, 5675, 5656, and 5638 are potential reaction points. • Resistances: 5763, 5766 (major), 5771, 5776, 5782 (major), 5791, 5797, 5807 (major), 5812, 5818, 5830, 5843-45 (major), 5847, 5856 (major), 5866 (major), 5870, 5879, 5885, 5895-5900 (major). • As always, I don’t short strength in ES uptrends. For those looking for countertrend trades, 5782 might have a final reaction left before breaking out, while 5807, 5845, and 5866 are other potential reaction levels. • Bull Case for Monday: • In the short term, the bull case centers around a potential bull flag. Support is at 5738-40 with 5725 as the absolute lowest, and resistance around 5782. We could ping-pong within this range for days, but as long as 5738-40 holds, we continue upwards. • This could lead to another test of 5782, followed by a potential dip and a move to new highs at 5806+. From there, if ES stretches further, 5845 and 5866 are next targets. As of writing, we are defending 5755 support, and one could consider buying here at open or waiting for a 5766 recovery to target 5782. (Safer route) • Bear Case for Monday: • Shorts remain difficult, particularly breakdown shorts, which are notorious for trapping traders. For Monday, failure of 5738-40 could open the door for downside, with the next critical support at 5726. • These breakdown trades are tricky as 80% of them typically fail. I prefer failed breakdown setups, where one could wait for a recovery above 5738-40 or for a flush below 5726 that recovers. A test of 5724-25 might trigger a short if the structure is right, with the next downside target at 5702. • Summary for Monday: • My general lean is to defer to the trend, with 5738-40 to 5782 forming a new consolidation range. We could see more chop inside this range for a couple days, but generally as long as 5738 holds, and any dips below are quickly bought up, we should revisit 5782 first, followed by a potential dip and then a move to new highs. • If 5738-40 fails, we could see a more sustained pullback. Volume will be critical at these levels—if we don’t see strong buying volume, expect any breakdowns to accelerate the downside move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg