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MES1!

ES/SPX Plan For Oct 7thPlan for Monday: Supports: • 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major). What I’m Watching: • We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold. • I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long. • The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky. Resistances: • 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major). • As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers. Buyer’s Case for Monday: • The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday. Seller’s Case for Monday: • The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771. Summary for Monday: • The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES Levels and targets Oct. 3rdThis week has pretty much revolved around one key level in ES: 5740, which has trapped shorts multiple times now. Yesterday, we saw a huge failed breakdown there. Targets were 5754 (hit), 5763 (hit), and 5773 (hit). We just had another failed breakdown at 7 AM this morning, pushing us up right back to the first target 5754 again and here now As of now: No change—as long as buyers keep 5740-42 holding on dips, 5763, 5773, and 5780+ are still in play. If 5740 fails, 5729-27 and 5712 next down
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full ES Trading Plan for MondayPlan For Monday: • Supports: 5755 (major), 5751, 5746, 5738-40 (major), 5733, 5729, 5726 (major), 5721, 5711, 5698-5702 (major), 5690, 5685, 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5661, 5655 (major), 5646, 5638 (major). • Levels to Bid Direct: • After a 120-point squeeze last week, ES spent friday in consolidation mode. Remember, trend days like last Thursday are anomalies and are typically followed by either a price correction (selloff) or time correction (consolidation). Friday, we saw the latter. • For Monday, I view 5738-40 to 5782 as potential chop. We could see a repeat of friday’s ping-pong price action, requiring flexible level-to-level trading. 5738-40 is now range support, and while it’s been well-tested friday, it may have one more bid left in it, provided we don’t break above Thursday’s highs first. • If 5738-40 fails, 5726 becomes the next magnet. While we’ve consolidated, there hasn’t been a significant selloff after the rally, so caution with new longs below 5738-40 is warranted. Markets love to condition dip buyers before flipping to deeper pullbacks. If 5726-28 breaks, 5698-5702 is the final support before a sharper leg down, where a small knife catch long could be considered. Below here, 5675, 5656, and 5638 are potential reaction points. • Resistances: 5763, 5766 (major), 5771, 5776, 5782 (major), 5791, 5797, 5807 (major), 5812, 5818, 5830, 5843-45 (major), 5847, 5856 (major), 5866 (major), 5870, 5879, 5885, 5895-5900 (major). • As always, I don’t short strength in ES uptrends. For those looking for countertrend trades, 5782 might have a final reaction left before breaking out, while 5807, 5845, and 5866 are other potential reaction levels. • Bull Case for Monday: • In the short term, the bull case centers around a potential bull flag. Support is at 5738-40 with 5725 as the absolute lowest, and resistance around 5782. We could ping-pong within this range for days, but as long as 5738-40 holds, we continue upwards. • This could lead to another test of 5782, followed by a potential dip and a move to new highs at 5806+. From there, if ES stretches further, 5845 and 5866 are next targets. As of writing, we are defending 5755 support, and one could consider buying here at open or waiting for a 5766 recovery to target 5782. (Safer route) • Bear Case for Monday: • Shorts remain difficult, particularly breakdown shorts, which are notorious for trapping traders. For Monday, failure of 5738-40 could open the door for downside, with the next critical support at 5726. • These breakdown trades are tricky as 80% of them typically fail. I prefer failed breakdown setups, where one could wait for a recovery above 5738-40 or for a flush below 5726 that recovers. A test of 5724-25 might trigger a short if the structure is right, with the next downside target at 5702. • Summary for Monday: • My general lean is to defer to the trend, with 5738-40 to 5782 forming a new consolidation range. We could see more chop inside this range for a couple days, but generally as long as 5738 holds, and any dips below are quickly bought up, we should revisit 5782 first, followed by a potential dip and then a move to new highs. • If 5738-40 fails, we could see a more sustained pullback. Volume will be critical at these levels—if we don’t see strong buying volume, expect any breakdowns to accelerate the downside move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 20thWednesday around stock market close, ES gave us a huge long setup after A failed breakdown at 5680. Targets were 5779 and 5797, and we nailed 5797 to the tee for new all time highs. Now it’s all about consolidation. OPEX Friday today, so *don’t overtrade*. These days are notoriously known for blowing accounts and “pinning” of prices As of now: 5765 and 5754 are supports. Buyers have to hold to keep 5774, 5782, and 5797-99 back in play. If 5754 breaks, 5737 we go
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full ES/SPX trading plan for Sept 20thPlan For Friday: • Supports: 5775, 5769, 5765 (major), 5758, 5754 (major), 5746, 5737-40 (major), 5730, 5721 (major), 5715, 5711 (major), 5702 (major), 5690, 5685 (major), 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5659, 5646 (major). • Levels i would bid Direct: • I’m still trailing my 10% long runner from 5685, which is now up over 100 points from 24 hours ago, following a 322-point rally from last week’s lows. Bulls remain in full control, with no signs of losing key support levels yet. • However, this is my least favorite market configuration to trade. After such a significant rally, setups become scarce, and both longs and shorts carry elevated risks (rug pull for longs, and trying to short strong uptrends is equally risky). • Tomorrow, 5765 is the first key level. It was tested multiple times today and is no longer fresh, but it could still offer a bid opportunity if the reaction is favorable. If the price is knifing down, wait for 5754 and a potential recovery. • Any significant drop will likely see multiple supports lost, so be cautious with longs under key levels like 5763. Watch for a pullback to 5738-40, and if we pop above 42-43, this might offer a setup for longs. • In a quick selloff, 5711 or 5702 could present knife catch opportunities, especially if volume supports the recovery at those levels. Without strong buying volume, expect fakeouts at these major supports. • Resistances: 5782 (major), 5796, 5803-05 (major), 5813, 5824 (major), 5836, 5842 (major), 5850 (major), 5856, 5862-65 (major), 5872, 5880, 5887, 5897, 5906, 5915-20 (major), 5931, 5937 (major). • I don’t short strength in ES, especially in such strong uptrends. If you’re looking to fade strength, 5803-05 or 5850 could offer potential reactions, but it’s a high-risk strategy. • Bull Case for Tomorrow: • In the short term, bulls need to defend 5765. A consolidation or flag pattern between 5765 and 5796 could unfold, allowing ES to target 5805, 5825, and eventually 5862-65. • After such a large rally, it’s crucial that ES holds 5711 or 5702 on any pullbacks. Below 5702, we could see a move back to 5675. • Volume will be key—continued upside needs increasing buying volume to support further moves, especially through major resistances like 5805 and 5850. • Bear Case for Tomorrow: • The bear case starts if 5765 fails. This could trigger a short-term dip, but breakdown trades are inherently risky with low win rates. • I’d need to see ES first test 5763 and or put in a failed breakdown to the 5754 level first. After this plays out, one could place a short trigger below wherever the structure is. It should be slightly underneath any noise. It may be somethign like 5750 but could be higher. • As always, approach breakdown trades cautiously, especially without volume confirming the move. These setups are tricky and can easily trap traders. • Summary for Tomorrow: • Bulls are still in control, but this staggering rally could end anytime. Until 5765 is lost, I’m deferring to the trend, expecting a range between 5765 and 5796, with upside targets of 5805, 5825, and 5863-65. • If 5765 fails, we could see a backtest of previous breakout points from yesterday. Volume will be crucial—watch for volume increases at major levels to confirm further moves, or risk a rug pull if buying volume doesn’t support the trend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
3
Full ES Trading Plan For Sep 17th** The Levels in this section all now reference the December (ESZ2024) contract prices.** Plan for Tuesday: • Supports are: 5690, 5684, 5680 (major), 5671, 5662-64 (major), 5654 (major), 5650, 5645, 5639 (major), 5632, 5627 (major), 5620, 5614 (major), 5607, 5598, 5588, 5579 (major), 5573 (major), 5568, 5562, 5548-52 (major), 5544, 5532, 5523-26 (major). • In terms of lvls I’d bid direct: Conditions remain extremely poor and this partially attributed to contract rollover and partially attributed to the market waiting on FOMC Wednesday. Setups are scarce, and overtraders will continue to be punished badly. In these conditions it is essential to plan your trades and trade your plan, then sit on profits after. Generally speaking everything between 5680 and 5702 or so is pure chop now. If you over-trade in this zone, you will lose money and the only attractive trades in this situation are typically failed breakdowns, and we saw plenty today below 5680. For tomorrow 5680 remains support. This level is very well tested now and no longer reliable at all now. I won’t be bidding it directly, but if we dip down to 5671 then recover it may be actionable for a final time. As I warned yesterday, we have essentially rallied everyday now since last Wednesday. In this situation , rug pulls can come out of the blue, and it can occur anytime now. It does not mean that we stop taking longs, but it means we should be cautious now until the market “gets it out of its system”. My longs today were only partially sized and any future longs will remain so until a rug pull happens (which is inevitable) and plays out for a deep sell. We do not predict when this will occur, but we are prepared to react. Below 5680 is 5662-64. Once 5680 fails we could easily end up in “knife catch mode” so I am not overly interested in buying supports. If we test 5664 though and reclaim today’s low, it may present an attractive level to level move. If we get a proper dip tomorrow, both 5627 and 5614 would be spots I’d consider small knife catches at. As always, no rush, you can wait to see how price reacts at the zone especially if we are knifing into it at full speed. • Resistances are: 5696 (major), 5703 (major), 5709, 5720 (Major), 5724, 5734 (major), 5739, 5748, 5754-56 (major), 5765, 5770, 5774, 5781-85 (major), 5794, 5802 (major), 5815, 5829-32 (major), 5840, 5847, 5859 (major), 5865, 5877, 5881 (major). As readers know I don’t short strength in ES so I won’t be shorting any of the above levels (win rate for shorting when bulls control is just too dismal for me even attempt). For those who have a higher risk tolerance than me though, 5734 would be one spot to consider trying shorts. • Buyers case tomorrow: As I said on Friday buyers remain fully in control and we could easily pullback to 5552 over 100 points lower and it would just be a healthy, normal pullback after this size of rally. When I talk buyers case tomorrow, it is therefore just in the very short-term. For tomorrow, the buyers case would just involve ES filling out the 5702 to 5680 range more. We could ping pong and failed break this down many more times. As long as this structure is in tact though, it is a bull flag and would simply resolve us higher. This would ultimately target 5720, then 5732. If that big resistance can clear, we ultimately head up to 5756, then to re-test the ATH. I normally give spots to add on strength but given this very tight range, I cannot responsibly do this without seeing the action in real time as the zone is too choppy. Perhaps tests of 5680 that recover 5690 may be a concept of interest. • Sellers case tomorrow: The sellers case here is only short-term obviously, and begins on the failure of 5690. As I say everyday, there is a strong disclaimer that goes with these types of trades. These types of level loss shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) trap. They take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). *If you don’t like these odds and cant tolerate being trapped - simply don’t take them. I consider breakdown trades to be an advanced setup type so if a newer subscriber, there is nothing wrong with passing on these*. As always I don’t chase. I will warn that this is a very complex short as this is a trappy zone. Unless you are very experienced with this type of entry, do not try this entry and wait for a more established downtrend to form. Since the 5680 level is already fairly well tested, we could just flush it directly. Ideally, I’d want to see some sort of bounce and/or failed breakdown though in that 5671 to 5680 cluster again before trying short. After this reaction, perhaps 5669 would be an entry, but it would have to go below wherever the real time structure is formed after any bounce attempt. Be sure to take profits level to level, as we could very easily just pop down a level then squeeze 60 or 70 points.

In summary for tomorrow: We are chopping ahead of FOMC. My general lean is always to defer to the trend. 5680 to 5703 is a pure chop zone and as long as 5680 holds (or recovers on any traps below) we can work higher to 5720, then 5734. If 5680 fails, ES needs to sell before FOMC (and for buyers, this is the healthiest thing possible).
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by ESMorg
Full ES/SPX Trading Plan for Tmmr Sept 12thPlan for Thursday: Supports: 5554, 5543 (major), 5537, 5528, 5518-15 (major), 5511, 5503 (major), 5492 (major), 5483, 5474, 5467, 5464 (major), 5457, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5433, 5423 (major). Today’s session was incredibly strong. I’m still holding my 10% long runner from 5438, over 100 points below. With such a rally, setups are scarce. Why this is a risky time to trade: • Longs are risky as we’re 140 points off the lows, and chasing here without a pullback adds rug-pull risk. • Shorts are risky because fighting the trend after such a big move can be dangerous. • Chop risk is high because both longs and shorts are huge risk Traders need to recognize when the market is ideal for trading and when caution is required. After a huge uptrend day, the market needs time for price discovery: 1. Pullback (the deeper and faster, the better). 2. New pattern/structure forming. For now, I’m protecting profits and not actively trading. Looking for 1 trade. • First key support is 5543, but after such a rally, I’m not interested in buying the first dip, as these supports rarely hold. • A potential trade could arise if we dip to 5537 and recover. Below that, 5515-18 is worth watching, but 5492 is the more interesting level where I’d consider a small long. • If we see a rapid drop below 5492, it’s safer to wait for a recovery above 5502 before entering. If 5492 fails, the rally could be in trouble, with deeper supports at 5464, 5445, and 5424. Should 5424 give way, new lows are possible. Resistances: 5558 (major), 5565, 5572 (major), 5585 (major), 5593, 5605 (major), 5611, 5620, 5630 (major), 5638, 5644, 5654, 5660-62 (major), 5673 (major), 5705-10 (major), 5750, 5757-60 (major), 5794 (major). I avoid shorting into strength, especially after a day like this. Short squeezes in ES are violent, particularly during corrections or bear markets. Traders who want to short should watch 5585-93, a key zone for sellers. If broken, the path to all-time highs is smooth. Buyers Case for Tomorrow: After today’s monster squeeze, a pullback or red day tomorrow wouldn’t be surprising and might be healthy. Generally, the buyers case would see ES push higher to backtest 5585-93, which includes the bull flag resistance and 5585, where last week’s breakdown triggered the September crash. A strong buyers case would involve flagging under today’s highs and above 5542. Losing 5542 could signal a deeper pullback toward the supports discussed. Normally, I’d suggest adding on strength, but after a 140-point rally without a pullback, I can’t advocate chasing longs. Flagging between 5542 and 5566 could be constructive for a breakout to 5585-93, a decision point. If buyers return and accept that level, the next targets are 5605, 5630, and 5660 for a potential run at all-time highs. Sellers Case for Tomorrow: A real sellers case is distant. The short-term sellers case starts with failure at 5492. Breakdown trades below support often fail and trap traders. These are high-risk, high-reward trades with a low win rate. I’d avoid chasing them unless a failed breakdown recovers. If you’re not comfortable with getting trapped, it’s better to pass on these setups. My core focus is failed breakdowns, where a breakdown looks likely but reverses. To play this, I need to see a bounce off 5492. Below this, shorts become more attractive, but cautiously. The failure of 5542 tomorrow could also set up a high-risk short, though I’d need to see a failed breakdown at 5537 and a recovery before shorting. Summary: After today’s 140-point rally, I’m stepping back to let the market discover its next move. If 5543-37 holds, the path to 5585-93 is clear, and sellers may make a stand there. If 5543-37 fails, we’ll likely dip toward deeper supports and reassess.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg