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MES1!

Full ES/SPX trading plan for Sept 20thPlan For Friday: • Supports: 5775, 5769, 5765 (major), 5758, 5754 (major), 5746, 5737-40 (major), 5730, 5721 (major), 5715, 5711 (major), 5702 (major), 5690, 5685 (major), 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5659, 5646 (major). • Levels i would bid Direct: • I’m still trailing my 10% long runner from 5685, which is now up over 100 points from 24 hours ago, following a 322-point rally from last week’s lows. Bulls remain in full control, with no signs of losing key support levels yet. • However, this is my least favorite market configuration to trade. After such a significant rally, setups become scarce, and both longs and shorts carry elevated risks (rug pull for longs, and trying to short strong uptrends is equally risky). • Tomorrow, 5765 is the first key level. It was tested multiple times today and is no longer fresh, but it could still offer a bid opportunity if the reaction is favorable. If the price is knifing down, wait for 5754 and a potential recovery. • Any significant drop will likely see multiple supports lost, so be cautious with longs under key levels like 5763. Watch for a pullback to 5738-40, and if we pop above 42-43, this might offer a setup for longs. • In a quick selloff, 5711 or 5702 could present knife catch opportunities, especially if volume supports the recovery at those levels. Without strong buying volume, expect fakeouts at these major supports. • Resistances: 5782 (major), 5796, 5803-05 (major), 5813, 5824 (major), 5836, 5842 (major), 5850 (major), 5856, 5862-65 (major), 5872, 5880, 5887, 5897, 5906, 5915-20 (major), 5931, 5937 (major). • I don’t short strength in ES, especially in such strong uptrends. If you’re looking to fade strength, 5803-05 or 5850 could offer potential reactions, but it’s a high-risk strategy. • Bull Case for Tomorrow: • In the short term, bulls need to defend 5765. A consolidation or flag pattern between 5765 and 5796 could unfold, allowing ES to target 5805, 5825, and eventually 5862-65. • After such a large rally, it’s crucial that ES holds 5711 or 5702 on any pullbacks. Below 5702, we could see a move back to 5675. • Volume will be key—continued upside needs increasing buying volume to support further moves, especially through major resistances like 5805 and 5850. • Bear Case for Tomorrow: • The bear case starts if 5765 fails. This could trigger a short-term dip, but breakdown trades are inherently risky with low win rates. • I’d need to see ES first test 5763 and or put in a failed breakdown to the 5754 level first. After this plays out, one could place a short trigger below wherever the structure is. It should be slightly underneath any noise. It may be somethign like 5750 but could be higher. • As always, approach breakdown trades cautiously, especially without volume confirming the move. These setups are tricky and can easily trap traders. • Summary for Tomorrow: • Bulls are still in control, but this staggering rally could end anytime. Until 5765 is lost, I’m deferring to the trend, expecting a range between 5765 and 5796, with upside targets of 5805, 5825, and 5863-65. • If 5765 fails, we could see a backtest of previous breakout points from yesterday. Volume will be crucial—watch for volume increases at major levels to confirm further moves, or risk a rug pull if buying volume doesn’t support the trend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
3
Full ES Trading Plan For Sep 17th** The Levels in this section all now reference the December (ESZ2024) contract prices.** Plan for Tuesday: • Supports are: 5690, 5684, 5680 (major), 5671, 5662-64 (major), 5654 (major), 5650, 5645, 5639 (major), 5632, 5627 (major), 5620, 5614 (major), 5607, 5598, 5588, 5579 (major), 5573 (major), 5568, 5562, 5548-52 (major), 5544, 5532, 5523-26 (major). • In terms of lvls I’d bid direct: Conditions remain extremely poor and this partially attributed to contract rollover and partially attributed to the market waiting on FOMC Wednesday. Setups are scarce, and overtraders will continue to be punished badly. In these conditions it is essential to plan your trades and trade your plan, then sit on profits after. Generally speaking everything between 5680 and 5702 or so is pure chop now. If you over-trade in this zone, you will lose money and the only attractive trades in this situation are typically failed breakdowns, and we saw plenty today below 5680. For tomorrow 5680 remains support. This level is very well tested now and no longer reliable at all now. I won’t be bidding it directly, but if we dip down to 5671 then recover it may be actionable for a final time. As I warned yesterday, we have essentially rallied everyday now since last Wednesday. In this situation , rug pulls can come out of the blue, and it can occur anytime now. It does not mean that we stop taking longs, but it means we should be cautious now until the market “gets it out of its system”. My longs today were only partially sized and any future longs will remain so until a rug pull happens (which is inevitable) and plays out for a deep sell. We do not predict when this will occur, but we are prepared to react. Below 5680 is 5662-64. Once 5680 fails we could easily end up in “knife catch mode” so I am not overly interested in buying supports. If we test 5664 though and reclaim today’s low, it may present an attractive level to level move. If we get a proper dip tomorrow, both 5627 and 5614 would be spots I’d consider small knife catches at. As always, no rush, you can wait to see how price reacts at the zone especially if we are knifing into it at full speed. • Resistances are: 5696 (major), 5703 (major), 5709, 5720 (Major), 5724, 5734 (major), 5739, 5748, 5754-56 (major), 5765, 5770, 5774, 5781-85 (major), 5794, 5802 (major), 5815, 5829-32 (major), 5840, 5847, 5859 (major), 5865, 5877, 5881 (major). As readers know I don’t short strength in ES so I won’t be shorting any of the above levels (win rate for shorting when bulls control is just too dismal for me even attempt). For those who have a higher risk tolerance than me though, 5734 would be one spot to consider trying shorts. • Buyers case tomorrow: As I said on Friday buyers remain fully in control and we could easily pullback to 5552 over 100 points lower and it would just be a healthy, normal pullback after this size of rally. When I talk buyers case tomorrow, it is therefore just in the very short-term. For tomorrow, the buyers case would just involve ES filling out the 5702 to 5680 range more. We could ping pong and failed break this down many more times. As long as this structure is in tact though, it is a bull flag and would simply resolve us higher. This would ultimately target 5720, then 5732. If that big resistance can clear, we ultimately head up to 5756, then to re-test the ATH. I normally give spots to add on strength but given this very tight range, I cannot responsibly do this without seeing the action in real time as the zone is too choppy. Perhaps tests of 5680 that recover 5690 may be a concept of interest. • Sellers case tomorrow: The sellers case here is only short-term obviously, and begins on the failure of 5690. As I say everyday, there is a strong disclaimer that goes with these types of trades. These types of level loss shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) trap. They take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). *If you don’t like these odds and cant tolerate being trapped - simply don’t take them. I consider breakdown trades to be an advanced setup type so if a newer subscriber, there is nothing wrong with passing on these*. As always I don’t chase. I will warn that this is a very complex short as this is a trappy zone. Unless you are very experienced with this type of entry, do not try this entry and wait for a more established downtrend to form. Since the 5680 level is already fairly well tested, we could just flush it directly. Ideally, I’d want to see some sort of bounce and/or failed breakdown though in that 5671 to 5680 cluster again before trying short. After this reaction, perhaps 5669 would be an entry, but it would have to go below wherever the real time structure is formed after any bounce attempt. Be sure to take profits level to level, as we could very easily just pop down a level then squeeze 60 or 70 points.

In summary for tomorrow: We are chopping ahead of FOMC. My general lean is always to defer to the trend. 5680 to 5703 is a pure chop zone and as long as 5680 holds (or recovers on any traps below) we can work higher to 5720, then 5734. If 5680 fails, ES needs to sell before FOMC (and for buyers, this is the healthiest thing possible).
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by ESMorg
Full ES/SPX Trading Plan for Tmmr Sept 12thPlan for Thursday: Supports: 5554, 5543 (major), 5537, 5528, 5518-15 (major), 5511, 5503 (major), 5492 (major), 5483, 5474, 5467, 5464 (major), 5457, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5433, 5423 (major). Today’s session was incredibly strong. I’m still holding my 10% long runner from 5438, over 100 points below. With such a rally, setups are scarce. Why this is a risky time to trade: • Longs are risky as we’re 140 points off the lows, and chasing here without a pullback adds rug-pull risk. • Shorts are risky because fighting the trend after such a big move can be dangerous. • Chop risk is high because both longs and shorts are huge risk Traders need to recognize when the market is ideal for trading and when caution is required. After a huge uptrend day, the market needs time for price discovery: 1. Pullback (the deeper and faster, the better). 2. New pattern/structure forming. For now, I’m protecting profits and not actively trading. Looking for 1 trade. • First key support is 5543, but after such a rally, I’m not interested in buying the first dip, as these supports rarely hold. • A potential trade could arise if we dip to 5537 and recover. Below that, 5515-18 is worth watching, but 5492 is the more interesting level where I’d consider a small long. • If we see a rapid drop below 5492, it’s safer to wait for a recovery above 5502 before entering. If 5492 fails, the rally could be in trouble, with deeper supports at 5464, 5445, and 5424. Should 5424 give way, new lows are possible. Resistances: 5558 (major), 5565, 5572 (major), 5585 (major), 5593, 5605 (major), 5611, 5620, 5630 (major), 5638, 5644, 5654, 5660-62 (major), 5673 (major), 5705-10 (major), 5750, 5757-60 (major), 5794 (major). I avoid shorting into strength, especially after a day like this. Short squeezes in ES are violent, particularly during corrections or bear markets. Traders who want to short should watch 5585-93, a key zone for sellers. If broken, the path to all-time highs is smooth. Buyers Case for Tomorrow: After today’s monster squeeze, a pullback or red day tomorrow wouldn’t be surprising and might be healthy. Generally, the buyers case would see ES push higher to backtest 5585-93, which includes the bull flag resistance and 5585, where last week’s breakdown triggered the September crash. A strong buyers case would involve flagging under today’s highs and above 5542. Losing 5542 could signal a deeper pullback toward the supports discussed. Normally, I’d suggest adding on strength, but after a 140-point rally without a pullback, I can’t advocate chasing longs. Flagging between 5542 and 5566 could be constructive for a breakout to 5585-93, a decision point. If buyers return and accept that level, the next targets are 5605, 5630, and 5660 for a potential run at all-time highs. Sellers Case for Tomorrow: A real sellers case is distant. The short-term sellers case starts with failure at 5492. Breakdown trades below support often fail and trap traders. These are high-risk, high-reward trades with a low win rate. I’d avoid chasing them unless a failed breakdown recovers. If you’re not comfortable with getting trapped, it’s better to pass on these setups. My core focus is failed breakdowns, where a breakdown looks likely but reverses. To play this, I need to see a bounce off 5492. Below this, shorts become more attractive, but cautiously. The failure of 5542 tomorrow could also set up a high-risk short, though I’d need to see a failed breakdown at 5537 and a recovery before shorting. Summary: After today’s 140-point rally, I’m stepping back to let the market discover its next move. If 5543-37 holds, the path to 5585-93 is clear, and sellers may make a stand there. If 5543-37 fails, we’ll likely dip toward deeper supports and reassess.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
My Full ES/SPX Plan for Tmmr Sept. 6thPlan for Friday: **Supports:** 5512, 5502, 5494 (major), 5482 (major), 5476, 5474 (major), 5462, 5455 (major), 5450, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5428, 5423, 5414 (major). **Levels to Bid:** - I am still holding my 10% long runner from the **5493** knife carch idea that played out this afternoon. I have added long exposure around **5513**, risking 25% of today’s profits. - We are currently in a new chop range between **5493 and 5554**, with **5519** acting as a key middle point. This has been tested 14 times since yesterday, so it’s no longer fresh but still worth watching for failed breakdowns as always. - **5494** is next major support below, though it’s risky to buy directly after today’s test, especially with the NFP report coming tomorrow morning. Ideally, I'd like to see it flush and recover, perhaps testing **5482** or **5474** before reclaiming for a safer entry. - Below **5492**, I consider this "knife catch mode," meaning supports will likely fail, so I’d be careful with longs, snd treat with smaller size than normal . However, **5455** and **5438** are key levels to watch for buy reactions if price starts flushing down aggressively. **Resistances:** 5519 (major), 5524, 5528-30 (major), 5537, 5543, 5554 (major), 5560, 5566, 5574, 5577, 5582-86 (major), 5593, 5598, 5605 (major). - With NFP tomorrow, we could see a violent rally, and I am not interested in shorting strength in ES. For those looking to short, **5582-86** is a logical spot, where we broke down earlier this week and have yet to backtest. **Buyers Case Tomorrow:** - Currently, ES has an active failed breakdown present. The key is for **5492** to hold, allowing buyers to defend this level and potentially reclaim **5519**. - The path forward for buyers would then be targeting **5528-30**, **5554**, and eventually **5582-86** for a dip and push toward **5630**. **Sellers Case Tomorrow:** - Begins with the failure of **5493**. As i mentioned often though, breakdown trades below this a support are tricky, advanced setups, as most breakdowns trap (80% fail), and these are low-win-rate, high-risk/reward trades. So keep that in mind. Properly reading volume is the key to these type of trades. - Generally, I’d want to see 5493 tested/one more failed breakdown of the zone (ideally down to 5483 that recovers). After this, I’d consider short perhaps 5486. Level to level profit takes, as always, but we likely get down to 5455. In general, We have gone nowhere for two days. My general lean is that 5493 and 5519 remain critical levels. As long as we can keep defending 5493, ES is still in relief bounce/squeeze mode. This would work us up the levels to 5528-30, 5554, then on to 5582-86. If 5492 fails, bulls dropped the ball on this and we need to take another leg down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES/SPX Levels & Targets Aug 26thOn Thursday/Friday, I called the 5588-93 buy zone with a target of 5653, and ES has hit it four times since Friday morning. As of now: No changes—I'm still holding my runners from Friday mentioned in plan. The 5642 level, which has been tested twice but remains weak, is the key support. If we can hold above that, I’m eyeing 5672 and the 5687-90 range as potential targets. If 5642 breaks, I’ll look to sell around 5630. Full Plan for today was posted Sunday Morning
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Navigating NVIDIA Earnings Led Volatility with S&P 500 OptionsNVIDIA will announce its Q2 2025 results on 28th August. The semiconductor giant is expected to deliver USD 28.6 billion in revenues. Even a mild shortfall can send its stock prices tanking. The firm is slated to scale even greater heights on continued AI hardware demand & explosion in data centres. ANALYSTS REMAIN BULLISH NVIDIA enjoys buy rating with 12-month price targets ranging from USD 90 to USD 200 per share across 52 analysts. Forty-seven analysts have strong buy rating followed by nine buys and five holds based on 61 analysts issuing ratings over the last three months. The firm has a commanding position in the AI-driven chip market. Booming demand for GPUs in data centres and cloud computing serve as relentless tail winds. NVIDIA EXPECTED TO DELIVER INCREDIBLE RESULTS ON GROWING AI DEMAND AI demand is palpable. This demand is vindicated by eye popping financial performance. Few can deliver higher earnings without comprising margins. NVIDIA has crushed both. Its revenues have risen 5.6x since 2019 while its net income has risen 10.6x during the same period. Its net income margins have expanded two-fold from 25.6% to 48.9% in the same time frame. Little surprise that its shares are up 162.71% so far this year far surpassing S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and other mega caps. NVIDIA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ITS DOMINATION Tech firms are in early stages of AI hardware adoption, driving demand for NVIDIA’s chips. Its data center business is a key revenue driver, benefiting from growing AI workloads. Source: Statista NVIDIA’s AI GPUs are crucial for machine learning and neural network tasks. GPUs will contribute to 40% of its total revenue in 2024. The firm continues to expand its CUDA software ecosystem. CUDA enables developers to optimize AI workloads. Combination of hardware and software makes its ecosystem extremely sticky. It locks in developers & clients contributing to long-term revenues. Furthermore, NVIDIA’s long-term roadmap includes innovations in AI chips designed for specific tasks, such as inferencing and deep learning, areas where its competitors have struggled to gain traction. RECAPPING NVIDIA’S RECORD SHATTERING Q1 2025 EARNINGS The firm delivered record quarterly revenues of USD 26 billion (up 18% QoQ & 262% YoY), primarily driven by a 427% surge in Data Center business. Its net income of USD 14.88 billion and diluted EPS of USD 5.98, marked 21% and 629% increase respectively YoY. The gross margin rose to 78.4%, up 2.4% QoQ & 13.8% YoY. The firm also announced ten-for-one forward stock split effective 7th June. It increased quarterly dividend by 150% to $0.10 per post-split share. On such stunning results, its share prices rose 9.3% after announcement. Even though NVIDIA share prices have risen, its price-to-earnings ratio have come off thanks to even sharper rise in its earnings. The price paid for each dollar of earnings is cheapest over the last eight quarters based on P/E ratio. The P/E ratio is down to 51x as of Q1 2024 compared to 144x as of Q1 2023. EARNINGS SURPRISES & SHOCKS AND ITS IMPACT ON STOCK PRICES NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings has crushed expectations 21 out of the last 22 quarters since 2019. Beating earnings has become par for the course for this firm. Even mild shocks can cause tremors in its share prices. It is no surprise then that the 12-month rolling beta of the firm is 2.78x making it highly volatile. Beta measures share price sensitivity to the overall market. It quantifies price moves of a stock to the broader index. BETA HEDGING NVIDIA STOCKS WITH S&P 500 MICRO INDEX OPTIONS Portfolio Managers holding NVIDIA stocks can cleverly use deeply liquid CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index Options (CME Micro S&P 500 Options) to hedge against potential earnings linked price shocks. Holding NVIDIA shares while hedging the holding via CME Micro S&P 500 Put Options helps to build effective portfolio resilience. Investors are assumed to hold one-hundred shares for illustration. The notional value of NVIDIA shares is calculated using close of market price on 23rd August. Trading View publishes twelve-month rolling beta for each stock. It can be used for calculating the required number of S&P 500 index puts to hedge against downside price risk. We suggest adjusting the beta upwards (“Earnings Linked Beta”) by 50% to cater for earnings linked excess volatility. The notional value of options is calculated using Earnings Linked Beta. Two lots of CME Micro S&P 500 Options are required to hedge 100 NVIDIA shares. The table below demonstrates overall Beta Hedged P&L based on various price scenarios for NVIDIA share prices and S&P 500 futures price after earnings. Single stock options can be used to hedge. The cost of hedging using them would be expensive due to elevated IV levels during earnings. Investors must balance cost savings against basis risks. Please note that beta hedging involves basis risks. If the stock and index prices fail to move in tandem as expected, then beta hedge may not provide adequate protection from adverse price moves. The table below illustrates Beta Hedged P&L if index moves in a muted manner which is unlikely. The table below illustrates Beta Hedged P&L if index moves inversely to NVIDIA share prices. This scenario is a highly unlikely but is included for clarity of understanding and illustration purposes only. Investors can consider exploiting elevated implied volatility in NVIDIA options by selling calls to partly fund the purchase of index put options. By selling a 25-delta options expiring on 30th August, the investor creates a covered call strategy on the underlying NVIDIA stocks. A 25-delta call translates to a 142 strike and the last traded price on 23rd August was USD 2.70 per share. Investors can view up-to-date pricing sheets along with various options analysis tools on CME QuikStrike . The P&L of beta hedge plus covered call assuming expected index moves is as shown below: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by mintdotfinance
Full ES Trading Plan for Aug 26thPlan For Monday: supports are 5642, 5630 (major), 5620, 5616, 5612 (major), 5605 (major), 5598, 5594, 5588-86 (major), 5576, 5572, 5566 (major), 5560, 5547, 5534-38 (major). Levels to Bid: • Still holding my runner from the 5588-93 long Friday night and letting it ride. I added another 25% around 5647 late in the day because my cost basis is low, so as long as we’re above break-even, I’m holding. • It should be clear by now that ES is setting up a new consolidation range between 5659 and 5588-92. This range is wide and could become a bit of a battleground. Must take profits level by level. Overtrade within this range, the market will eat your lunch. • Everything in this range is choppy with poor follow-through, so it’s best to wait for failed breakdowns, trade level to level, leave runners on, and stop overtrading. Since Tuesday, the structure looks like a “megaphone” or early bull flag. There are several critical levels in this range that have been heavily tested, so you’ll need to be nimble. • First Level Down: 5630. It’s been worked a lot, so I’ll watch the volume in real-time. Ideally, I’d want to see it flush and reclaim, maybe down to 5620 before considering entries. • This only applies if we haven’t broken out of the 5659 range first. If we break to new highs, then any new longs below are off the table. • Below 5630: We’ve got the 5612 and 5605 cluster. Watch for failed breakdowns of Friday's low, and if we can hit 5605 or so and reclaim, I’ll be looking to go long. If things are looking particularly bearish, I might wait for 5612 to recover before jumping in. • If 5588 fails: I’ll probably be flipping to shorts and won’t be interested in longs until around 5534-38. Resistances: • 5654, 5659 (major), 5662, 5672, 5679, 5687-90 (major), 5694, 5705 (major), 5714, 5720 (major), 5730 (major), 5737, 5746, 5749 (major), 5758, 5770 (major), 5778, 5785 (major). • As usual, I have a strict “no shorting strength” rule when we’re in an uptrend. I just don’t do it. For those who are into that kind of risky play, 5659 has been tested a lot and has worked for shorts a few times already, so it’s probably losing reliability. • Next risky short spot: 5687-90, then 5730 and 5785 if you’re feeling brave. Buyers Case: • I’m seeing 5588 to 5659 as a chop zone now, so the “buyers case” is the default as long as 5588 keeps holding. With this structure intact, I see the 5588-5659 range as just another bullish continuation pattern. • Remember, in an uptrend, most traders assume all structures will break to the upside—because 80% of the time, they do. I’m not trying to be a hero and predict which 20% will fail; I’ll just short when one does. It's literally that simple. Til then, you stay with the trend. • The buyers case for Monday would be more range filling, followed by a breakout targeting 5673, then 5687-90. After that, it’s probably on to all-time highs, with 5785 being the next big magnet. • Ultra bullish scenario: ES doesn’t dip at all and goes straight up. This would likely see ES flagging below 5659 and above 5630, maybe without even hitting 5642 first. I’d consider adding in this case, especially if we probe under 5642 and recover, but it’s hard to get too specific without seeing how things play out Sunday night/Monday morning. Sellers Case: • Starts with a break below 5588. I’d need to see a final bounce/failed breakdown/reaction at 5588. After this plays out and its clear there is minimal demand left at the level, I will be shorting. Perhaps 5583 trigger. Level to level profit takes. In general, defer to the trend as always. 5659 to 5588 = pure chop. We can fill this out in many ways. As long as this structure is intact, we push to 5672, 5687-90 next. Maybe a dip there, then on to 5705, 5730. If 5588 fails, we finally get a short trigger and start the leg down to 5538.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Resend: Full ES Plan For Today // Sent Out YesterdayPlan for Friday: Supports are: 5593-5588 (major), 5582, 5572, 5567 (major), 5560, 5555, 5540-45 (major), 5528 (major), 5519, 5512 (major), 5502. Tomorrow is the Jackson Hole speech at 10am, and it could be as unpredictable as FOMC or CPI days, so trade cautiously. First off, size down—there's no point in risking big money in a market driven by algos and noise. Losing money on a known volatile day is a choice. Most professional traders have already called it a week and are skipping tomorrow—take note. Professionals focus on preserving profits, while retail traders often chase quick gains. This difference in mindset is why pros size down or stay out, while retail traders often lose money. Expect traps tomorrow—like with CPI/FOMC days, the first few moves might be fakeouts. It’s smart to wait for failed breakdowns rather than diving in. Also, avoid overtrading. Stick to level-to-level trades because price action could get complex and hard to predict. My approach will be to take one trade and protect it, only risking profits on a second trade if necessary. Tomorrow is all about preserving capital for me, and I’m only risking 10% of this week's profits. Keep in mind that last year’s Jackson Hole reaction was very bullish, but 2022’s was extremely bearish. Be ready for anything. First support is 5593-88, which we’ve been holding for a couple of hours. I’ll watch for flushes and reclaims of this zone. Given that it’s Jackson Hole day, if the market wants to sell off, it could blow through multiple supports, so I’ll be patient and wait for failed breakdowns before considering any longs. 5567 is the next support down, but I’m not interested in catching a falling knife tomorrow. Below that, 5540-45 is another level to watch. On a regular day, I’d look to buy here, but tomorrow I’ll wait for reactions before making any moves. Resistances are 5604 (major), 5610, 5618-20 (major), 5623, 5630 (major), 5636, 5643, 5653 (major), 5661 (major), 5668, 5672, 5678, 5685 (major). I don’t short in uptrends, especially on Jackson Hole day. If you’re into risky trades, 5685 and 5705 might be worth considering, but it’s not my style. Buyers case tomorrow, even after 11 days of rallying, a pullback would be normal and healthy. Remember, pullbacks in ES tend to be sharp drops, not slow grinds. Big picture, buyers are still in control above the breakout around 5450. Short-term, as long as we’re above 5588-93, they could push higher, targeting 5630 and 5652, with potential new highs after that. Sellers case: it starts with a break below 5588-93, but be cautious—Jackson Hole days are tricky and full of traps. Ideally (on a normal day), I’d want to see perhaps one more bounce and/or failed breakdown here. After this, I am short 5584 or so. Level to level profit takes. In general, Its Jackson Hole day, and the market will be on a mission to take your money. Size down. I don’t like “predicting” ahead of a day like this (since its impossible) but if I had to give a lean, its always to defer to the trend. As long as 5588-93 holds, we can simply resume up back to 5630, 5653. Perhaps final reaction, then breakout to 5685+. Sell<5588.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg