Full ES/SPX Trading Plan for Tmmr Sept 12thPlan for Thursday:
Supports: 5554, 5543 (major), 5537, 5528, 5518-15 (major), 5511, 5503 (major), 5492 (major), 5483, 5474, 5467, 5464 (major), 5457, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5433, 5423 (major).
Today’s session was incredibly strong. I’m still holding my 10% long runner from 5438, over 100 points below. With such a rally, setups are scarce.
Why this is a risky time to trade:
• Longs are risky as we’re 140 points off the lows, and chasing here without a pullback adds rug-pull risk.
• Shorts are risky because fighting the trend after such a big move can be dangerous.
• Chop risk is high because both longs and shorts are huge risk
Traders need to recognize when the market is ideal for trading and when caution is required. After a huge uptrend day, the market needs time for price discovery:
1. Pullback (the deeper and faster, the better).
2. New pattern/structure forming.
For now, I’m protecting profits and not actively trading. Looking for 1 trade.
• First key support is 5543, but after such a rally, I’m not interested in buying the first dip, as these supports rarely hold.
• A potential trade could arise if we dip to 5537 and recover. Below that, 5515-18 is worth watching, but 5492 is the more interesting level where I’d consider a small long.
• If we see a rapid drop below 5492, it’s safer to wait for a recovery above 5502 before entering. If 5492 fails, the rally could be in trouble, with deeper supports at 5464, 5445, and 5424. Should 5424 give way, new lows are possible.
Resistances:
5558 (major), 5565, 5572 (major), 5585 (major), 5593, 5605 (major), 5611, 5620, 5630 (major), 5638, 5644, 5654, 5660-62 (major), 5673 (major), 5705-10 (major), 5750, 5757-60 (major), 5794 (major).
I avoid shorting into strength, especially after a day like this. Short squeezes in ES are violent, particularly during corrections or bear markets. Traders who want to short should watch 5585-93, a key zone for sellers. If broken, the path to all-time highs is smooth.
Buyers Case for Tomorrow:
After today’s monster squeeze, a pullback or red day tomorrow wouldn’t be surprising and might be healthy. Generally, the buyers case would see ES push higher to backtest 5585-93, which includes the bull flag resistance and 5585, where last week’s breakdown triggered the September crash.
A strong buyers case would involve flagging under today’s highs and above 5542. Losing 5542 could signal a deeper pullback toward the supports discussed.
Normally, I’d suggest adding on strength, but after a 140-point rally without a pullback, I can’t advocate chasing longs. Flagging between 5542 and 5566 could be constructive for a breakout to 5585-93, a decision point. If buyers return and accept that level, the next targets are 5605, 5630, and 5660 for a potential run at all-time highs.
Sellers Case for Tomorrow:
A real sellers case is distant. The short-term sellers case starts with failure at 5492. Breakdown trades below support often fail and trap traders. These are high-risk, high-reward trades with a low win rate. I’d avoid chasing them unless a failed breakdown recovers.
If you’re not comfortable with getting trapped, it’s better to pass on these setups. My core focus is failed breakdowns, where a breakdown looks likely but reverses. To play this, I need to see a bounce off 5492. Below this, shorts become more attractive, but cautiously. The failure of 5542 tomorrow could also set up a high-risk short, though I’d need to see a failed breakdown at 5537 and a recovery before shorting.
Summary:
After today’s 140-point rally, I’m stepping back to let the market discover its next move. If 5543-37 holds, the path to 5585-93 is clear, and sellers may make a stand there. If 5543-37 fails, we’ll likely dip toward deeper supports and reassess.
