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MES1!

Es Levels & targets July 29thExcellent follow through for buyers after fridays close. On Friday, one of my targets were 5528. We got there, then dipped. Right before the close, we got a failed breakdown of 5498 level which shot us right back up to 5528. Been basing up here since. As of now: Hold runners if you have them. 5519, 5502 are supports. Staying above keeps 5536, 5542, 5550-55 in play. 5502 fails, sellers retest 5483 area. Sellers are still in short-term control, and will stay this way until 5550-55 reclaims. Until then, all longs shall be treated with small size and high caution. Be very aggressive with profit takes level to level in this scenario when longing.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES Levels & Targets for July 22ndPlan for Monday: supports are 5542-44 (major), 5535, 5528 (major), 5519, 5511, 5498-5500 (major), 5491 (major), 5484, 5474 (major), 5467, 5457 (major) It should go without saying, as I have emphasized since Wednesday: Bears are still in control until we see a significant reclaim of key breakdown points from last week. Hopefully, last week served as a valuable lesson in trading downtrends, as these skills have likely dulled over recent months. When bears are in control, all long positions will struggle, regardless of their apparent strength, and follow-through will be weak. Attempting to catch sustained bottoms is as useless as trying to pick sustained tops during an uptrend. While there are opportunities for gains on the long side, they won't last or lead to a squeeze until ES recovers some major resistance levels. For Monday, these will be 5568, and 5604 (the big one now). In terms of supports, 5542-44 is first down, and we already tested it and defended once Friday, making it weaker for Monday. I won’t be buying this again personally. If we flush it and reclaim though, it may present an option to add since this lvl hasnt trapped shorts yet. Below there, we sell again to 5528. I’d be interested in trying a small size long here. Could it fail? Of course, but that is just the cost of business when trying to long in downtrends. If that goes, I am not interested in longing again until 5498-5500, and a failed breakdown of the July second low at 5502 would be quite attractive. Resistances are 5552, 5560, 5568-66 (major), 5575, 5581-85 (major), 5588, 5598, 5604 (major), 5611, 5617 (major), 5621, 5632-34 (major). If buyers reclaim 5568-66 on Monday, we will probably squeeze. 5604 may have another dip left in it if we get there (though this is already very well tested), and the 5630-32 area also is likely to produce a dip on the backtest. Buyers case: sellers control for now obviously and there is no “buyers case” until they do something to tell me otherwise. There are many overhead resistances that must reclaim now to build back a legitimate buyers case (5568, 5604, then 5630), with 5568 being first up. There may be a long available above this. But you will have to read the action in real time. As always, one does not want to rush into it especially if we dip substantially first (like crash to 5528 early on Monday). You want to see some acceptance first, then perhaps 5569 would represent a long. If buyers are very motivated, this would send us back to 5604, dip there, then run back to 5630 which is a huge resistance. Level to level profit takes though as always. Do not bank on any long working for more than a level. Sellers case: The bear case is the default case. For Monday, this resumes on the failure of 5542. Check my July 19th plan on these type of trade setups. 5542 has been tested once already, so shorting below is slightly derisked now, but ideally I’d want to see one more test/failed breakdown, then 5540 would trigger us down. Will have to read the volume in real time. 5528 fail is also a possible attractive short, but I’d definitely need a bounce here first/failed breakdown, then short a little below. Generally, after three days of "short the pop," sellers still have control. This trend will inevitably conclude like every dip does, with a violent short squeeze. For that to happen though, buyers need to reclaim some major resistance levels. My outlook for Monday is that if buyers can defend 5542 (and if we do dip, it should be a quick flush to 5528 then recover), we can attempt another relief pop to 5585, 5604+. If 5528 fails, we are likely heading sub 5500.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES levels & targets July 19thPlan for Friday: supports are 5585 (major), 5575, 5566-68 (major), 5558, 5553, 5542 (major), 5534, 5527, 5519 (major), 5511, 5502 (major), 5491, 5482 (major). With the short idea at 5628 working so well today and bringing us down past 5585, I’ve decided to add a small long late day on the 5585 reclaim, seeing us put in a nice late day failed breakdown (Deja Vu from yesterday). In this case, we flushed the 1230PM 5590 low, then reclaimed, entering with part of today’s profits. As I’ve mentioned for two days now, I see sellers being in control still until buyers can conclusively reclaim some major resistances to turn that around, with 5630 being first up. Until then, all longs should be treated as high risk, high failure rate, and with small size. When bears are in control and ES is making new lows, I call these “knife catches” and they are inherently dangerous, in the same way shorting a new high in an uptrend is. From where we are now, 5585 is first support down, and this backtests the triangle shown in red. We’ve already worked this level quite extensively, it may have another test left in it though. If it does fail and we make a new low, the next major support down is 5666-68. While one could “knife catch” this, I’d rather see us flush today’s low, tag that zone, then reclaim to try a small long for a safer setup. Could this fail? Yes, bears are in control. Longs have been brutally spoiled now for weeks with every single long working, and now longs have to put a little more effort into where, and how one enters. If 5666 fails, I’d be looking at 5542 and 5519 as spots to try small sized longs. Resistances are: 5593, 5598 (major), 5608 (major), 5611, 5616 (major), 5621, 5630-32 (major), 5640 (major), 5646 (major), 5649, 5655, 5660, 5668 (major). Obviously the 5630-32 level is a big one from here. One could try shorting it on the backtest and it may produce a decent reaction. Personally, I won’t be taking this as I’ll probably still be long into it, and I am not a fan of flipping long to short in macro uptrends. Buyers case: Bears are currently in control, so 5630 must be reclaimed to give bulls their first technical "win" and shift the momentum back in their favor. For bulls, the goal tomorrow is for 5630 to be retested. Ideally, this retest would hold us above the 5585 level after today’s late-day failed breakdown. If there’s another low, it should be a brief dip below today’s low followed by a quick recovery. The bounce would then need to progress through 5608, 5616, and finally to 5630, which is a crucial level. A long entry is viable above 5630, but it requires patience and volume for confirmation and a pullback first, making it a more advanced entry. Sellers case: The sellers case is now the default until 5630 reclaims. There are a couple shorts available tomorrow. The best is on the fail of 5566. As I say often, these types of shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is trapping retail traders with failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) end in trap. Markets always trap before they move. Breakdown trades take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). As always though, I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce/failed breakdown of 5566 first . Only after this takes place, would I consider short 5564 or so for a move down the levels. There is a higher risk short available on the fail of 5585 as well. Again I’d ideally want to see a bounce here first to remove the “trapping factor” out of the level, then short a little below it. You don’t want to rush into these. 5542 would be the magnet for this, but as always take profits lvl to lvl. In general, Today’s close is much like yesterdays. We had a day of selling, and bears remain fully and completely in control. My general lean is similar to yesterdays but at lower levels; as long as 5585 holds, bulls can try to pop to 5608, 5616, then 5630. If bears to take another leg down, it would be there (or even sooner if they are particularly motivated). If 5585 fails, we likely head down directly again.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES Levels & Targets for July 1st/TipFor y’all that don’t know, July 1st is the most bullish day of the year seasonally, green 90% of years sice 2003 and up for the last 13 years straight. What does that mean for us? Absolutely nothing, because we trade price, not seasonals. Of course, these tendencies are good to keep in the back of your head as are all seasonal tendencies, but when it comes to actual trading, we trade the same way we do every day. Wait for the setups, take them without bias, manage it level to level, repeat. We must trade what is in front of us, not averages. Specifically for tomorrow, 5519 has been a true ATM machine in CME_MINI:ES1! . From where we are now, I see 5519-5582 as being a large chop zone. But as buyers keep holding 5519, we can continue filling the range out.. This would mean retesting 5539, perhaps dip, then heading to 5557-60 again. If 5519 fails, buyers will have to reclaim it quick or sellers can try to start a deep leg down for a move sub 5500.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Short term analysis for ES or MESCME_MINI:ES1! Broke out a 1 month flag on May 6th (in white). This pushed us to all time highs and now the spot buyers want to get over for next week is the 3 month megaphone resistance at 5349 area (in green). Get above there and buyers can push for 5374. If sellers want to dip us this upcoming week, it can start on the fail of 5302. which will target 5274 area. now realize, it has been one hell of a run, coming off 10 straight greed days. Consolidation between 5302-5349 is ideal for Monday in my opinion. Only time will tell!
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by ESMorg
When ES reaches ATH, it seems hard to speculate DOL1) Looking at it during London Session I was expecting the Daily Candle to close out the "FVG". Then Pull back and go Higher. 2) Look at it now, price has done that. With the many +OB below. I am expecting price to retrace. I usually like to reference to DXY. DXY has REH which price is very near now. 3) With news coming at 10am, I am not sure of the Bias. Perhaps retrace to a Lower OB before trampoline higher on a Leap year before relaxing.
TVC:DXY
by learnwithkit
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures. Bearish Channel In DevelopmentAI-related companies lost $190 billion in stock market value late on Tuesday after Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered quarterly results that failed to impress investors who had sent their stocks soaring. The selloff following the tech giants' reports after the bell underscored investors' elevated expectations following an AI-fueled stock market rally in recent months that propelled their shares to record highs with the promise of incorporating the technology across the corporate landscape. Alphabet dropped 5.6% after the Google-parent's December-quarter ad revenue missed expectations. Alphabet also said its spending on data centers to support its AI plans would jump this year, highlighting the costs of its fierce competition against AI rival Microsoft. While Google Cloud revenue growth slightly topped Wall Street targets, boosted by interest in AI, Microsoft's Azure grew faster. Microsoft beat analyst estimates for quarterly revenue as new AI features helped attract customers to its cloud and Windows services. However, its stock fell 0.7% in extended trade after briefly hitting an intra-day record high earlier on Tuesday. Optimism about AI pushed Microsoft's stock market value above $3 trillion this month, eclipsing Apple NASDAQ:AAPL . Chipmaker Advanced Micro tumbled 6% after its forecast for first-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as it projected strong sales for its AI processors. Shares of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which have surged 27% in January after more than tripling last year on AI optimism, also gave back some of those gain in extended trade, last down over 2%. Server maker Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI , another company that has benefited from AI-related demand, dropped over 3%. Earlier on Tuesday, it had climbed to a record high after delivering amazing quarterly results the day before. The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 Micro E-Mini Futures CME_MINI:MNQ1! illustrates that bearish channel is in development in this time, where 17800 points is the upper (resistance) side and 17000 points level becomes attractive to watch. 3-months mid-term VIX Futures spread (the difference between front, February, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXG2024 and May, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXK2024 that is 3 months ahead) still is in Bearish mode, saying there's no panic yet on the streets. 50/200-hours MACD says btw, bearish sentiment becomes more active.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Pandorra