SPY Short/PutStill in a downward trend and entered in that bearish weekly FVG. Looking to possibly add to position. Target is the previous lows or bullish Weekly FVG. Looking for this trade to play out by the end of 2023.
MES1!
ES range for 06-Nov [RTH Update]Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically.
ES/MES range for 06-Nov [European Session Update]Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically.
ES/MES range for 06-NovES/MES range for 06-Nov
Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically.
Day trade in the MES triggers long for 2.2 R and high win rateSuper High probability trade setup with the Trading Trinity construction. High probability trade with a 2.2 R
Anatomy of an MES day trade short, Target reachedMES consolidated early after the bell creating a really visible and tradable opening range. After M2K tipped its hand and showed clear weakness, a trade in MES lower became probable. Following the Trinity Trading setup we find a great entry with very low risk. This turned into a gorgeous easy hold for 3.89 R with plenty more on that run.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEKES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEK
Price broke 4303. If this becomes support,
next target level will likely be 4584.
Scenario Planning:
1) Long on support at 4303
2) If false break, short on rejection at recent high / lower
high.
Note:
Longer Term: 4150 need to hold as support in order for
long trend to remain intact.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = NTC weakness
Daily: Low(er) vol up bar S>D close off high = NTC weakness
*NTC = Non Trend Changing
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4584-4525 4303 4150
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For educational purpose only.
Micro E-Mini to move lower...CME_MINI:ES1! just completed a 50% retracement. Bounced right off the 50% line and retraced to a bearish 1H order block. Tapped the 50% line of the OB twice. Now looking for price to sweep sell-side liquidity and dig into bullish order block. Short term bearish....
ES1! Intraday levelsES1! 65m: Intraday levels, VPOC 4139.50, Inside bar on sessions for 1D-4D and could remain in range for acute horizons; Earnings and VOL levels in consideration; Weak breadth on daily internals// KLs: 4176, 4164, 4156.50, 4147, 4117.75, 4139.50, 4110.75, 4098.75// Price at time of publish: 4154.25// Bias: Neutral
Going long on the S&P 500 futures. Setting a limit order here at high of this 15m FVG. 5 handle stop. 8 handle tp where some equal highs reside.
Opening (Margin): /MES May 19th 3600/4260 Short Strangle... for a 53.75 credit.
Comments: Now that the FOMC rate decision is in the rear view mirror ... . 2.69 ($268.75, to be exact) max on buying power effect of around 9.00. 29.9% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 14.9% at 50% max. Will look to adjust on side test or if a side approaches worthless.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 28th 3670/4090 Short Strangle... for a 93.75 ($468.75) credit.
Comments: Going with something more straightforward here and a little bit less "high maintenance" than my continuous delta hedging setup with short straddles. Selling the 25 delta's on both sides. $468.75 max on buying power effect of $892.00; 52.6% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 26.3% at 50% max.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 21st 3960 Short Straddle... for a 225.00 ($1135.00 max) credit.
Comments: The 30-day IV isn't as high as I would like at 20.5, nor is the IVR (11.5%), but you can't always have everything. Will look to make additive adjustments first to get to the size of position I want and then look to just manage sides to delta balance. Starting out skewed just a smidge short here, but I'll naturally adjust if the market has other ideas on its mind.
I'm generally looking to get 25% of total credits collected (25% of $1135.00 would be $283.75 in profit), but won't be hesitant to take quick profit and then re-establish.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 21st 3990 Short Straddle... for a 234.00 credit.
Comments: Re-establishing here with 53 days until expiry. $1170 max on buying power of $1028; 114% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 28.5% at 25% max. 3756/4224 break evens.
As before, will look to first add to get to the size of position I want, then do additive, subtractive, and rolling adjustments at intervals to keep the setup from getting too directional.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 21st 4010 Short Straddle... for a 242.75 credit.
Comments: Ask (for higher IV) and you shall receive ... . 3767.25/4254.75 break evens on buying power effect of less than the credit received. Although I look for 25% max out of short straddles, I won't hesitate to take it off in profit early, since this is a tad longer dated than I like to start out with (56 days until expiry).
Opening (Margin): /MES March 31st 4000/4330 Short Strangle... for an 81.75 credit.
Comments: After closing out my last setup in profit, reentering anew, selling the 26 delta on both sides to get about 50% of the buying power effect of the setup in credit. I'm staying with the March 31st here, as the April expiry is a bit too far out in time yet. 81.75 credit (408.75 max) on BPE of 940.00 or so; 43.5% ROC at max; 21.7% at 50% max.
As before, I'll look to do additive delta adjustments at intervals to keep the delta/theta ratio <1.0.
Opening (Margin): /MES 3910/4320 Short Strangle... for an 86.50 credit.
Comments: And ... back into /MES in the expiry nearest 45 DTE. Selling the 24 delta strikes on both sides to get something approaching 50% ROC as a function of buying power effect. 432.50 max on buying power effect of 879.92, 49.2% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 24.6% at 50% max.
Will generally look to make adjustments to the setup when delta/theta ratio skews out to >1.0.
MES1! H4Considering the upcoming news release 2/14/23 i am projection one of these projections to manifest over the course of this week
markdown bias = if highs (412x) are attacked during N.Y. sessions
markup bias = if lows (4050) are attacked during N.Y. sessions
Opening (Margin): /MES March 17th 4075 Short Straddle... for a 199.75 credit.
Comments: 199.75 credit (998.75 max) on buying power effect of 1038.55; 96.2% ROC at max; 24.0% at 25% max.*
A different form of a reverse gamma scalping setup using short straddles. In this case, delta adjustments are made using additive skewed short straddles to delta balance. For example, if the position skews out to -20 short delta, you sell a slightly skewed long delta short strangle to delta balance. I'm intending to leave the entire position on (the original plus any skewed straddle adjustments) running into no later than about half way into the cycle (21 DTE), but will pull the entire thing off in profit earlier if I get an opportunity to do so.
An example of a short straddle that is skewed long delta: March 17th 4140 short straddle, +19 delta (put deeper in-the-money than the call).
An example of a short straddle that is skewed short: March 17th 4020 short straddle, -20 delta (call deeper in-the-money than the put).
* -- With short straddles, I generally look to take profit at 25% max, since these have less room to be wrong than a short strangle. Most at-the-money short straddles set up with expected move break evens, which is less room to be wrong than I would ordinarily set up with a short strangle, where I generally set up sides at 2 x the expected move.
Closed (Margin): /MES February 28th 4040 Short Put... for a 56.00 debit.
Comments: Filled this for a 70.75 credit. Closing out here results in a (70.75 - 56.00)/.2 = $73.75 profit.
Opening (Margin): /MES February 28th 4020 Short Put... for a 50.50 credit.
Comments: Continuing to adjust to keep my delta/theta ratio sub-1.0, with the position still leaning net delta short.
Closed (Margin): /MES February 28th 3870 Short Put... for a 21.00 debit.
Comments: Opened for 32.50; closed for 21.00. (32.50 - 21.00)/.2 = $57.50 profit.
Opening (Margin): /MES February 28th 4080 Short Put... for a 73.75 credit.
Comments: Functionally rolling to a 4080 short straddle here to delta balance and bring my delta/theta ratio to back under 1.0. The position remains net delta short, which I'm fine with since we're at 30 day highs here. Will look to take off the whole kit and caboodle in the next several days here, since I've only got 32 DTE to go in this contract, and would like to move on to the March fairly soon.
