MES1!
ES (S&P 500) 2nd Half of Jul and Week of Jul 17th OutlookSo far the market hasn't shown it doesn't want to go lower. Now that we are in the 2nd Half of July and some Sell-side Liquidity has been taken, I anticipate a move up to rebalance price. For next week starting July 17th we have an ATR of 215 which could put us around the 4060-4080 range in terms of expansion. We have several gaps to fill above and some buy-side liquidity resting above. Key levels next week I can see are 3900, 3920, 3950, 3980, 4015/4030, 4050, 4080.
For the rest of July if the bullish expansion is to continue we have an ATR ranging between 360-400. This could put as an expansion between 4085 and 4125. If price can break and stay above 3920 between now and the end of the month, then we may see the full expansion to the 4085-4125 area.
Key events and data coming up for the market in the 2nd half of July: Tech & Bank Earnings, Housing Starts & Building Permits, Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Fed Interest Rate Decision, GDP Growth Rate, Personal Spending and Income.
Will 2009-2020 resistance turn to support on the S&P?Monthly candle closes tomorrow.... Gulp.
Buying or selling?
Using S&P to Identify RecessionInstead of waiting for NBER to officially declare the confirmation of recession, an alternative way to identify is using the U.S. indices quarterly chart, especially the S&P.
Typically, economists call a recession when GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters.
A committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for officially declaring when recessions start and end.
Why I favour S&P over Dow Jones and Nasdaq?
It has 500 companies from the largest to the smallest and from various industries. It is commonly use to benchmark for stock portfolio performance in America, a much wider and broader measurement. Whereas Nasdaq is Tech heavy and Dow Jones with too limited stocks of 30.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
SPY/SPX/ES/MES Elliot Wave AnalysisLooks like a big rally shaping up to end the month of May, but June should be a full-on bear fest, at least to start the month. Major Wave 1 down should end in the 3200 - 3500 zone. Likely, we'll rebound from there into the Fall of 2022.
Major Wave 3 will likely project down to the 1500 zone. Major Wave 5 will likely end in late Spring 2023 with target projections somewhere between 1500 - 1200 with a very real possibility of undercutting the 2009 low @ 666.
If we do undercut 666, supercycle Wave 5 up should begin, lasting 8.6 years into 2032 and reaching 50k to 100k + on the Dow Industrials. After that, it's possible the whole thing drops to zero and the shithouse goes up in flames.
Credit to Dan E. for his wave analysis and Elliot Wave International CME_MINI:ES1!
Side note - When things get super volatile, I like to trade the mini ES. Trades great with excellent liquidity.
S & P 500 day tradingFirst target (green arrow) if 4375 on es after open holds it up. Will try to post trades that system hits on.
day trading ESI have been trying to only post when you will have 10 or so minutes to join me on the trade. Darn things fire off before i an get them posted. Do not want to post look at the trades I have done. Arrow marks spot i was half finished typing on and it took off, will keep trying to post early.
SP500 - Turn ahead, or further flush?Orange Fork:
Price reached the centerline and flushed through it. Now fighting against a further stretch. A close above the yellow horizontal would indicate, that price reached it's P3-Swing (3?).
Red Fork:
Speed fork, which is a measure if the speed will increase or not. Close The close above the red centerline tells me, price is slowing down, because of no further downside action, away from this red CL.
From where price is now, chance up or down are 50&50.
My personal assumption? I have no frkn clue, I just follow the marekt which is short, until the break of the yellow horizontal line.
When Bonds and Stocks go up together...... it is a sign of a top approaching??
Disclaimer: This is just an opinion, not a financial advice. Do your own homework.
SP500 to 4200 by 4/20When twitter starts posting VIX charts, you know its time to buckle up for them to scream "GolDen AgE oF AsSeT BubBlEs" when the market, against all the social media narratives, rips shorts to shreds.
"ArCHEgOs iS goNnA buRsT tHiS BuBBle" -> /es runs to 4k+ instantly
No, this is not the 2001 Tech Bubble.
4104 is top line resistance. If hit, we'll have a small pullback (4050-4060 floor). I estimate the pullback to last approx till 4/14-4/15. Option expiration and after -> Insane melt-up coming.
Never short a dull market.
This is not financial advice.
MESH2021 SCALP opportunityHello, Thanks for watching!
I see some scalp opportunity for 2/4/2021 to go long take 8-12 points
around 3825, 3775, and 3700.
Have a great day!
SPY MES1! 3840: Bears have been WRONG, NOW WHAT? 3880 then 3800?with SPX at 3840, after an impressive run for the last 12 weeks, is it due for a rest?
It is likely the market will attempt to ATH to 3880 on heels of good earnings from meg caps but the majority of the moves are already made.
Testing 3800 is a higher probability than 3880.
MES1! to Test 3600, then 3535 Within 2 or 3 weeksThe market has been on hopium with the flood of new IPOs and hot stories at values that have not seen in the market's recent history collectively. Technically based on timing and price symmetry we are likely to see a natural retracement, to at least 3600 and 3535. Beyond that, my vision is blurred LOL.
MES1! Likely Retracement Ahead Based on RSI and MACD & Timing SPX has been in a tight range, grinding higher slightly every day. Momentum indicators have signaled a downturn as well as the divergence throughout this 40-day long rally. The targeted retracement is 50% Fib by mid-Jan of 2021. Levels are 3591,and then 3515 (50% Fib)
$MES_F Longer Term Outlook - Reversal Coming?After the $MES1! sellers drove prices down aggressively lower, price has been shifting to a much more range bound stance being confirmed even more by the rounding price action. There are also two separate 3-Press Lows forming at almost identical locations on top of measured move completion targets. There are likely only going to be two responses to this movement -- Aggressive and Conservative approaches.
S&P500 breaking out of symmetrical triangle.$ES is breaking out of symmetrical triangle.
We need to close above tested base to clear path to 3500.
Low of 3005 have been taken out. Making HH's and HL's.
Target: previous highs
Invalidation: fake-out, shitting the bed and close below Weekly Open.
$ES $MES $SPY $SPX
Bullish case of S&P 500Bullish Case of $ES_F #ES_F $MES $SPX
Bulls are not done yet. Here is why:
- Brocken demand base retested
- Daily/Weekly Open retested
- Clean break thru Monthly open, looking for retest
Invalidation: close below Weekly Open.
We may shit the bed below Monthly open for more liquidity.
Oh my God!!! The Biggest Bear Trap in the History is Here.These Fractals matching exactly in terms of Fibonacci Retracement, Exponential Moving Average and Top/Bottom Hourly.
Only Algorithm with Huge Capital Power can do that.
Expects for the All Time High to come as soon as by the end of this month.
Thus, we're seeing the Biggest Bear Trap in this History: "-35% Crash in just 4 Weeks".
"History does not repeat itself, but it Rhymes"
- Mark Twain
The Biggest Bear Trap in History is Here. (Revised version)Better matching by using 110 min chart.
Original idea below:
MES1! could head down to 2800-2750 zonePeople wanna blame the Corona virus, I just trust the candles. Pink lines show weekly levels here on this 4 hour chart.Speaking of the weekly chart, take a gander and see that this weeks candle is a huge shooting star following the largest bearish weekly candle in years. The bulls can enjoy the bounce for a bit more but in the next coming weeks, I think we'll see 2800 tested. If not, price should head back up to 3200 zone then head down, but in my opinion, that's not likely.
Anyway, be careful out there and happy trading everyone!
What if S&P 500 Index repeats 1968-1970 ? [ -35% DOWN ]I found an incredible matching fractals with both of percentage-wise measurements (up & down) and pattern similarity compared with the period of 1968-1970.
Expects -35% down side and a recession if this history repeats itself.
Prepare for the worst guys!
“History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes.”
- Mark Twain
$S&P500 Future Coming Up on Horizontal ResistanceS&P500 Futures (4hr) coming up on horizontal resistance from the 11/24 gap up. If it can push through here, look for a move to the prior rising trend line at 3140. Initial support comes in below around 3070-3080 if it fails
