S&P500, Up or Down?!S&P was hit by CPI news release with about a 2% drop from the 1H candle.
Prices started climbing there after, but this could be a result of price-action, take profit at a key level.
We see this in the 1D chart, for a rally base rally which was printed from 20-24 June 2022.
Double top potentially forming if price does break the 3760 RBR zone.
Where do we see prices going from here? Are we in for a deeper crash back to pre-covid highs of 3400 on 19 Feb 2020?
Recession scares are shaking the market, and much is uncertain - or so they say...
Safer long term buys above 3900. Otherwise, would say outlook is still generally looking bearish.
That aside, short term buys probable, given the momentum we had on 13/7 and a series of higher low candle closes into resistance, holding above the demand zone.
Messy
A very messy wedge: Still inside the green wedge lots of other valid trendline currently in play too. Normally on these ideas I would delete all but one or 2 patterns trendline so you can see it clearly. This idea here is just mainly being posted so later when I click play on it I can see how many of these trendline s came into play. This is really just an idea posted for me to reference back to later more than it is for anyone else’s eyes. If you can decipher every pattern shown here congrats but I’m not trying to explain this one.
Choppy day for the USD...Lots of pressure on the dollar today with inflation and jobless data. Overall weak us new which has been very manipulative and encouraging growth in other currencies.
It will be interesting to see if the USD can stabilise of the back of todays trading sessions. 95.00 to 94.00 could provide support should the index drop off into the final hours of this week. We could even be approaching a 200 DMA revisit after almost 6 months...
EUR/JPY we can see just as much mess technically...The Yen and Franc continue to take leads from Dollar moves over and above the general market mood, outperformance against the Euro aside, with the former back above 104.00 and the latter paring losses from sub-0.8900. No real independent drivers for the Chf on the horizon, but the Jpy has Japan’s latest tertiary industrial index to look out for tomorrow and a speech from BoJ Governor Kuroda according to some economic calendars. Looking at EUR/JPY we can see just as much mess technically. I will leave this pair until next week for further trading desisions.
And here's the close-upA close-up to support the idea I just posted, of what might be a last 5-waves down. If the fib channel plays out, we'll see a move up to the 50% line around 1760, and then a move down. Support to break is around 1350 (big significant previous low), and if we pass the that point people will dump their BTS and we dip down to 900 sats levels.
Or not! As always, don't take this type of ideas as prophecies - it's just inspiration, possible interpretations to use and then do your own chart work.
Messy Macro ViewHere's something new: a bearish count from me for Bitshares. After countless wrong counts on the long side, the pattern unfolding seems to take a clear shape for me. But who knows, I might be wrong again! :-)
What I'm seeing: a market where everyone is watching everyone else. Everybody's trying to make a speculative buck (myself included) and waiting to jump on board as soon as the market shoots up. Of course the market doesn't shoot up, because everybody's just waiting and watching. A sort of passive chicken and egg story! Volume has been supporting this claim for a long time now (since past december), and king Bitcoin is showing the same situation.
Technically, one might say that we're still seeing an elastic bounce as aftershock of the big december peak. What happens when the energy of the aftershock dies out completely? A market without energy in it, with everybody waiting for a new impulse. That impulse, in my opinion, will probably only come when prices have seriously dipped (so, a capitulation phase) down to a point where even a blind person would find the dip interesting enough to buy in, because there is, in a sense, only upside to be explored. I'm talking about 20 RSI on the daily material.
And then we'll see people buying in, and a whole host of others starting to buy in at what they think is the end of a wave 2 (of an impulsive wave 1 on a higher trend). And so it begins! Crypto markets really are about mass psychology and self fulfilling prophecies.
So, my current view is we'll see some movement up, for the wave 4 of the last 5-wave leg down. And then one last, big dip into loooooow RSI levels on the daily, potentially down to 900 sats level. At that point I would say, BUY!