Meta Platforms (META) Shares Dip Below $550Meta Platforms (META) Shares Dip Below $550
On 7 October, we analysed the Meta Platforms (META) price chart and highlighted:
→ The formation of a long-term upward channel (marked in blue).
→ The key drivers supporting bullish sentiment.
We also emphasised the psychological significance of the $600 level.
Since then, the price has approached this level four times, only to be met with resistance each time (indicated by red arrows).
Yesterday, for the first time since mid-September, META’s price fell below $550, suggesting that the stock underperformed the broader market during October and November.
What’s Next?
Technical analysis of the META price chart reveals that the stock is trading within a range defined by:
→ Resistance at $600, which has consistently proven robust.
→ Support at $545, a level that previously acted as resistance (marked by arrows).
While the channel median initially acted as a “magnet” for the price (highlighted with an oval), November patterns suggest the median now "repels" the price downward, a bearish indicator.
Bullish momentum might regain strength if the price approaches the lower boundary of the blue channel. However, the sustainability of demand at these levels and whether it can drive a successful breakout above $600 remains uncertain.
Analysts remain optimistic. According to a TipRanks survey:
→ 40 out of 44 analysts recommend buying META shares.
→ The average 12-month price target for META is $662.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Meta
META breaking down to 520 to 539The chart for META indicates a symmetrical triangle, a consolidation pattern suggesting indecision in the market. This setup is characterized by converging trendlines, with lower highs and higher lows, pointing toward an imminent breakout. The current price action is nearing the apex of the triangle, increasing the likelihood of a breakout or breakdown soon. The price is nearing the apex of the triangle, and a breakdown is likely within the next 3–5 trading sessions. Volume confirmation is critical to validate the breakdown direction.
Entry Strategy:
Enter a short position if the price breaks and closes below $555.00 with strong bearish momentum and volume.
Bearish Target: Subtract $15.44 from the breakdown level of $555.00 → $539.56. Place a stop-loss above the upper trendline at $570.00. Take partial profits at $545.00, then hold for the full target of $539.56.
I have taken a put position as I favor bearish breakdown and have taken 520P for 11/29/24 @1.38.
$META drop to $480?If we look at the NASDAQ:META chart, we can see that price has rejected from the top resistance multiple times and has now formed a lower high.
If price can't manage to break above that level, then the most likely scenario is that we see a breakdown from here down to that first support level and trend line at the $478-484 level.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks.
META can turn bearish if it fails to break this Channel.Our previous call on Meta Platforms (META) was on July 26 (see chart below), almost 4 months ago when we gave a strong long-term buy signal on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
Despite the excellent timing of the call, we has seen in the past 30 days that the price action has diverged from the model and the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up isn't as strong as the previous two inside a 2 year span that each rose by +95%.
The price has instead turned sideways, mimicking the price action of the two Accumulation Phases that emerged after each of the Bullish Legs topped. The 1D RSI being on a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down already) technically agrees with that, so if you followed our July buy call, it might be best to book the handsome profit now and wait.
What to wait for? Well it all depends on a new pattern that has emerged, a Diverging Channel Up (dashed trend-lines). As long as the price is trading inside it, there is greater probability to give us a lower buy entry near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again. In that case we will take it and target the top of the Diverging Channel Up at $660.
In the event that the price breaks above the Diverging Channel Up, we will buy the bullish break-out and pursuit the previous $800 Target as that would mean that the original 2-year Channel Up remains the underlying pattern dictating the long-term movement of the stock.
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Meta's Q3 Financial Results | Growth and the Future of AI & AR Meta's Q3 Earnings: AI Investments Shape the Future of Engagement and Monetization
Last week, Meta shared its Q3 earnings, revealing a familiar trend: while the results were strong, rising AI investments cast a shadow. With over 3.2 billion daily users across Meta’s apps, the company alongside Google and YouTube is in a prime position to bring AI into the mainstream. However, this shift could potentially disrupt the creator economy as we know it
So, how will this affect the future of Meta’s apps?
Did you know META is 222% up since our first analysis ?
Let’s break down the quarter and explore the latest updates
Today’s Highlights
- Overview of Meta Q3 FY24
- Recent business highlights
- Key quotes from the earnings call
- The potential decline of the creator economy
1. Meta Q3 FY24 Overview
Meta operates within two main segments
FoA: Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp)
RL: Reality Labs (virtual reality hardware and software)
Daily Active People in FoA grew by 5% year over year, reaching 3.29 billion. However, user growth has slowed, with Meta adding 20 million daily users in Q3 2024 down from 50 million earlier in 2024.
Meta’s reach now extends to over half of the global population aged 15 to 80, meaning future growth will hinge more on engagement and ad efficiency than adding new users.
Key Insights from Zuckerberg:
-Facebook: Positive engagement trends among Gen Z in the U.S.
-Instagram: Sustains “strong” growth globally.
-WhatsApp: Now surpasses 2 billion calls daily.
-Meta AI: 500 million monthly active users.
-Threads: 275 million monthly active users, up from 200 million in Q2, with notable growth in regions like the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan (currently not monetized and unlikely to drive significant revenue by 2025).
Advertising Performance:
- Ad impressions grew 7% year-over-year (compared to 10% in Q2).
- Average ad price increased by 11% year-over-year (10% in Q2).
- Average revenue per user grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching $12.29 (compared to Snap at $3.10 and Reddit at $3.58).
- Despite some critics suggesting potential inflation due to bot activity, ARPU growth points to real ad value; fake users can’t generate revenue.
Financials
- Revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion.
- FoA saw a 19% increase, reaching $40.3 billion.
- RL grew by 29% to $0.3 billion.
- Gross margin was 82% (-1pp Y/Y, +1pp Q/Q).
- Operating margin stood at 43% (+2pp Y/Y, +5pp Q/Q).
- FoA operating profit was $21.8 billion (54% margin, +2pp Y/Y).
- RL reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion (down slightly from $4.5 billion in Q2).
- EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $6.03.
Cash Flow
- Operating cash flow was $24.7 billion (61% margin, +1pp Y/Y).
- Free cash flow was $15.5 billion (38% margin, -2pp Y/Y).
Balance Sheet
- Cash and marketable securities totaled $71 billion
- Long-term debt was $29 billion
Guidance:
- Q4 FY24 revenue is forecasted at $46.5 billion in the mid-range
- FY24 expenses estimated at $96-$98 billion (previously $96-$99 billion)
- FY24 Capex is expected to be $38-40 billion (previously $37-$40 billion)
Summary Analysis
Revenue growth was 20% in constant currency (compared to 23% in Q2), with ad revenue growth driven by increased ad prices. Strong demand for ads continued, largely due to higher ad performance, especially in online commerce, healthcare, and entertainment. Geographically, North America and Europe led growth at 21%, while Asia slowed from 28% to 15%.
Reality Labs’ revenue rose 29%, mainly from hardware sales, though the division continues to post significant losses. As shown in the visuals, FoA operating profit reached an all-time high, while RL’s losses remain around $4 billion quarterly.
Headcount increased by 9% year-over-year to 72,404, signaling a return to hiring, particularly in priority areas such as monetization, infrastructure, Reality Labs, and generative AI.
Stock buybacks amounted to nearly $9 billion in Q3, up from $6 billion in Q2, though lower than the $15 billion in Q1. Management’s confidence in Meta’s stock remains strong, with an additional $1.3 billion paid in dividends.
Capital expenditures climbed by 36% to $9.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion in Q2, with guidance staying on track. Management anticipates “significant acceleration in infrastructure expenses” for 2025, which will affect both the cost of revenue and R&D expenses.
Despite heavy AI spending, Meta remains highly profitable, generating nearly $52 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months—just shy of Alphabet’s $56 billion over the same period.
Q4 FY24 revenue guidance points to deceleration, with mid-range growth forecasted at 16%.
Let’s examine Meta’s investments and market position further.
2. Recent Business Highlights
Meta Orion
Meta's Orion AR glasses mark an ambitious step towards a future beyond smartphones, showcasing the potential of augmented reality (AR):
-Prototype Status: Orion is a high-tech AR prototype, equipped with advanced features, but high production costs keep it out of reach for consumers.
-Advanced AR Display: Using Micro LED projectors and silicon carbide lenses, Orion offers a broad field of view with sharper visuals than most current AR devices.
-Interactive AI Integration: With Meta's generative AI, Orion enables users to interact with virtual elements, identify real-world objects, and create immediate solutions, such as recipes.
-Complex Hardware: Orion relies on a neural wristband for control and a wireless compute puck, creating a multi-part system.
-High Cost & Limited Production: With a price tag estimated at $10,000, Orion isn’t ready for mass production. Meta has produced around 1,000 units for demonstrations and internal testing.
- Future Vision: Meta aims to release a consumer-friendly AR device within a few years, working toward a slimmer, more affordable model that could rival smartphone prices.
Orion reflects Meta's goal to lead the next wave of computing, though significant technological and cost hurdles remain.
Timing and Competitive Landscape**: Zuckerberg’s reveal of Orion may aim to justify Reality Labs' annual $16-20 billion operating loss to shareholders and gather feedback. Meanwhile, Apple has initiated its “Atlas” project to explore the smart glasses market, indicating potential plans to shift focus from the high-end $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset.
How AI Is Already Impacting Meta
Beyond future-oriented projects like Orion, Meta’s AI advancements are actively enhancing its core business in two strategic areas: engagement and monetization.
-Engagement: Meta's recommendation engine uses AI to tailor feeds with highly relevant video content, keeping users engaged. AI-driven prediction systems further increase app usage by showing content that maximizes interaction.
-Monetization: AI boosts ad efficiency across the entire lifecycle—from creation to performance tracking. Generative AI assists with ad copy, images, and video, while advanced models analyze user behavior to serve targeted ads, improving conversion rates incrementally.
-Meta AI Studio: This platform allows developers to create, train, and deploy custom AI models within Meta’s ecosystem. By enabling personalized assistants, interactive AI, and AR applications, Meta seeks to drive new consumer apps and maximize ad potential across its platforms.
Market Share
Meta’s advertising revenue hit $39.9 billion in Q3, reaching 81% of Google’s search revenue, up from 76% last year. Meta’s ad revenue is expanding at the same rate as Amazon’s, despite Meta’s larger base, signaling regained market share and effective adaptation to the post-ATT environment.
3. Key Quotes from the Earnings Call
CEO Mark Zuckerberg
- On AI and the Family of Apps: “Improvements to our AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone. More than a million advertisers used our GenAI tools to create over 15 million ads last month, and we estimate businesses using Image Generation are seeing a 7% conversion lift.”
-On Llama 4: “We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster larger than 100,000 H100s, more extensive than anything reported elsewhere.”
-On RayBan Meta Glasses: “Glasses are the ideal AI form factor as they let your AI see, hear, and communicate with you. Demand remains strong, with the new clear edition selling out quickly.”
-On Meta AI: “We’re on track for Meta AI to become the world’s most used AI assistant by year-end, with popular uses including information gathering, task assistance, and content exploration.”
CFO Susan Li
-On Recommendations: “Inspired by scaling laws observed in large language models, we’ve developed new ranking architectures for Facebook video that enhance relevance and increase watch time”
-On Capital Allocation: “We’re optimistic about our opportunities and believe that investing now in infrastructure and talent will accelerate progress and returns.”
4. The Potential Decline of the Creator Economy
Facebook and Instagram have evolved from social networks to content networks, benefiting creators with wide-reaching platforms. However, this era may be coming to a close.
-AI-Generated Content: Zuckerberg shared plans to introduce AI-generated and AI-summarized content on Facebook, Instagram, and potentially Threads, gradually shifting away from creator-generated content as the primary engagement driver.
-Impact on Creators: As AI learns to identify and generate engaging content, creators could struggle to compete, with algorithms delivering exactly what audiences want. Over time, creators may face a landscape where AI determines the most engaging posts, relegating them to the sidelines in a world increasingly powered by self-generating content.
-Why It Matters: Platforms like YouTube share 55% of ad revenue with creators, but Meta does not, meaning that an AI-driven shift isn’t primarily about cost-cutting. Instead, it allows for more integrated ad placements within algorithmic feeds, potentially boosting impressions and conversions.
Although AI generated feeds may sound dystopian, current high engagement accounts already use tactics to maximize engagement, meaning the shift to AI might go largely unnoticed by audiences.
META: A Dangerous Inflection Point! (D&H Chart Analysis).Daily Chart (Left)
Ascending Channel: The price has been trending within an ascending channel, indicating a strong upward trend that has held for a considerable period.
Double Support Area: There is a critical support zone at $561.52, marked by both horizontal support and the lower trend line of the ascending channel. This convergence of support points suggests that this level is pivotal for maintaining the current trend.
Price Reaction: Recently, the price tested the support area and rebounded, but it is still below the 21-day EMA.
Hourly Chart (Right)
21-Hour EMA Resistance: The price recently encountered resistance at the 21-hour EMA as well, which may act as a short-term barrier for further upward movement.
Pullback Zone: The recent dip tested the support area around $561.52, validating it as a strong inflection point. The price is now attempting a recovery from this support level.
Conclusion:
The $561.52 level is crucial for both bullish and bearish traders. If the price maintains above this zone, there could be potential for a rebound and continuation within the ascending channel. Conversely, failure to hold this support could lead to a bearish reversal or deeper correction. Keeping an eye on the reaction to the 21-hour EMA will provide clues for short-term movement.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
GOLD - History Repeating Itself... Again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📔I find the Gold 4H chart interesting.
Do you see a pattern here?
Look at the first three purple projections.
Gold broke below a low (marked in red), which signaled the start of a correction.
The correction was short-lived as the bulls took control again by breaking back above the red zone, triggering the next impulse phase.
Currently, Gold seems to be pausing, which might indicate the start of another correction phase.
🔄If history repeats itself, to signal a new impulse movement, we first need a break below the current low around $2,710, followed by a break back above it.
This projection could lead to the upper bound of the blue channel, around $2,850.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
MS and META brought down the entire index
USTEC continued its decline following disappointing earnings from two major tech stocks. Despite Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) reporting earnings and revenue above expectations, Apple’s shares fell in after-hours trading due to weaker sales in China. Meanwhile, the VIX has climbed to its highest level since Aug, signaling potential headwinds as elections approach.
USTEC declined steeply and failed to hold the 20000 threshold. The index broke the channel’s lower bound, and EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78, sending a bearish signal.
If USTEC fails to re-enter the channel, the index's downtrend may extend to 19700.
Conversely, if USTEC breaches 20140 after re-entering the channel, the price may gain upward momentum to 20680.
META on a new expansion wave to $800.Meta Platforms / META is pulling back again to test the 1day MA50, which has been holding since September 11th.
The pattern is quite similar to the January 2nd 2024 pull back, a bullish break out that also took place after a prolonged consolidation pattern.
The 1week RSI patterns between the two are also fairly similar.
As long as the 1day MA50 holds, we expect META to stay on this expansion wave.
Target $800 which is a +93.92% rise from the bottom, the rise that formed the previosu peak (April 8th 2024).
Previous chart:
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META Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on META:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 570usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-11-1,
for a premium of approximately $21.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
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Mag 7 Earnings - Something will Break (Ceiling or Floor?)797 stocks reporting earnings next week
Notables include
GOOGL
LLY
CAT
META
MSFT
COIN
AMZN
AAPL
XOM
CVX
MA
V
$15 trillion in market cap at play as the US markets are still very close to all-time highs with a melty-uppy vibe. I'm cautiously bullish and could certainly see the highs get blown off with strong earnings momentum dominating the sentiment. I could also see Mag 7 disappoint investors with "not enough growth" and any pullbacks on Mag 7 will certain drag on the entire market.
Survive next week, then it's onto the US Election, FED, Non-Farm Payroll. No big deal, it's just trading :)
Thanks for watching!!!
Short, target 549.26Following daily chart.
Last 5 days closed red and it's under fibo level again, also under EMA13 level. I am also following some different RSI levels and they're all tell me it's losing power a lot.
So, my target is %50 pull pack In total, which is 549.25, also which is still above important resistance levels.
Above 598, I'd stop.
Thoughts?
Meta: Top Placed!In line with our primary assumption, META recently reached the resistance line at $600.27. The upward movement paused at this level, and we now expect a short-term wave C decline, pushing the price below the support at $399. However, we also see an increased likelihood (39%) of a higher high for the green wave alt.(1). This alternative scenario will be quickly triggered if the price breaks above the $600.27 mark
Meta (META) Testing Key Levels: Breakout or Breakdown? Evening Traders
Meta (META) is currently trading in a key range, and the next move could be significant! 📊
Upside Potential: If META breaks above the critical resistance at $596, we could see a rally toward the next target of $600.44. 📈 Bulls should watch for momentum above this level as a potential breakout zone.
Downside Risk: A failure to hold the current support at $582.99 could see META retrace toward the next major support at $569.35. 📉 Bears will be eyeing a break below this level for further downside action.
Stay alert for a strong move in either direction! This chart is loaded with opportunities for both bulls and bears. 🔥
Mindbloome Trader
Happy Trading :)