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SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?The question at the top of everyone's minds right now is: have the markets topped? It's the kind of question that allows for a great deal of manipulation as sentiment, emotions, and the P&L column are manipulated violently. Since the markets were wildly bullish last quarter, inside of an overall market that is not bullish, and economic fundamentals that are pretty bad, your guard should certainly be up when you see a new quarter begin and price continue to run rampant. I discuss the parameters of a new quarter in the below post: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar And elaborate my feelings on the Nasdaq here: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap Caveat to the above is I now expect the Nas to only do, say, 14,400 and ultimately target the 16,000 figure. You're in an overall market where the US Petrodollar is set to rally, and rally hard: DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Even though the dollar might only do 108. And our good friend the VIX is too low to be sustainable for any kind of bull run, because they love "selling volatility and going away," so things need to be reset. VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude Geopolitically, there are a lot of problems. Specifically with China. Since Secretary of Treasury Yellen visited Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping and other government officials, there has suddenly been a huge posturing of "Taiwan war" rhetoric in the whole international media propaganda apparatus. China is in no condition to try to invade Taiwan after the damage the pandemic has caused for the last three years, however. In my view, what's really going on is the Chinese Communist Party is about to either be forcibly overthrown by "outside forces" (NATO, Washington, the "International Rules Based Order") via Taiwan. Or Xi is about to dump the CCP to defend the motherland, since he and his faction are major Chinese nationalists. Either way, you have to be very careful if you want to go long on dips. Don't full port or anything stupid, and if you want to go bigly long, do yourself a favour and hedge long on something with volatility. Because whatever happens will happen in Beijing time, which happens to be 12 hours ahead of New York time. Meaning whatever happens will be gap down time. And if Xi dumps the Party and weaponizes the 24-year long persecution of Falun Gong by former CCP Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toadling faction, the entire world is going to be implicated in the inquest. Because everyone has been going over to the Mainland to dirty themselves with Jiang and the Spectre of Communism in order to get the financial and social benefits they desire. But as long as things stay on course, here's the call. When it comes to SPY, it's hard to argue what is up isn't going to keep going up. If you ask me, the first target has to be the $461 March of 2022 high. But we've been up a lot for a long time, and SPY set its thus-far July low at $437 on only the third trading day of the month, which was a shortened week because of Canada Day and Independence Day to begin with. You can see that something is amiss by looking at the SPX Futures contract against the DXY, which lost 400 pips in roughly 10 days, marking a significant and strange divergence. Another significant tell is in the Dow, which is the weakest of the indexes right now and a leader, where the DIA ETF made a new high (2 cents, hard to see) but the underlying futures contract did not. This may indicate that the alleged bullish momentum from last week is fraudulent, at least in the short term. Possibly the long term. Friday's market action was really bullish on open and then really bearish on close, which likely means we're due for a reversal. We have an entire eight trading days until the next FOMC rate announcement. After July, there's no meeting until September. So what I think we're about to see is to have a proper July low of the month get set. And before the month ends we'll see a bounce, and our bounce will lead to the $463 target being achieved during the first week of August. And so if we have a middling/strugglebus Monday, it's worth considering reducing your long exposure, if you have long exposure. I think the $433 figure is the target because everyone is a Mason in reality and they just love 33 so much. It also doesn't break the June pivot, which aligns with the August of '22 pivot that was already taken out. More importantly, if $463 is achieved, you have to be exceedingly cautious. There's a certain degree of "financial shocks" that are arranged for Q4 and Q1, 2, and maybe even 3 of 2024 that you will find exceptionally difficult to endure. So make sure you make up for any regrets you have with your friends and family, as soon as possible. Make sure you stand on the right side of history when it comes to humanity's future and the CCP and its Marxist-Leninist junk. Money, fame, power, and sex aren't worth selling your soul for.
AMEX:SPYLong
by LordWrymouth
3
META Is this the start of a significant correction?Since November last year we have been issuing a strong buy signal on Meta Platforms (META) and our most recent analysis on February 02 (see chart below) came with a huge final bullish warning while the price was still at $189.00: The stock hit $320.00 last week, almost filling the gap with the 1W candle of January 31 2022 (practically META's start of collapse) and pulled-back. The big question on the market this week is, can that be the start of a greater correction? Well technically it is testing today the first key support level, the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the 6 month Channel Up pattern that started in late February. If broken, it is unlikely to see the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) hold. The key (technical) reason behind it, is the massive Bearish Cross that got formed this week on the 1W MACD. This is a major development as it is a rare event that always initiated a rather notable pull-back. More specifically, in the past five (5) years, we have had another six (6) 1W MACD Bearish Crosses, all making a Lower Lows after it. The minimum correction was -17.33% while the maximum -43.50%. Practically META made its large corrections (-43.50%, -38.60%) when it faced legal action and during the pandemic. The rest standard (technical) pull-backs ranged from -17.33% to -19.70% (also -28.15% on the last Bearish Cross but fundamentals were also present). This is the reason we expect a pull-back below the 1D MA50 if the Higher Lows of the Channel Up fail (to close 1D candles above it). The minimum projected correction range of -17.33% would give us a pull-back to $265.00. A -19.70% would give $256.00. That would start making META a technical buy again, where long term investors can start applying buying strategies with a tolerance level up to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:META
by TradingShot
2
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 24, 2023Key News: UK - S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI USA - S&P Global US Services PMI (Jul) The Dow Jones Industrial Average celebrated a remarkable milestone on Friday, securing its 10th consecutive weekly gain and extending its longest winning streak since 2017. However, the market's positive performance was tempered by cautiousness among traders ahead of the upcoming quarterly results from major tech companies. The Dow managed a marginal increase of 0.01%, equivalent to a mere 3 points, which might seem modest, but it's significant given the index's prolonged daily winning streak, last witnessed on August 7, 2017. The primary force behind the Dow's recent success lies in the gains made by defensive sectors, particularly utilities, which have helped bolster overall market sentiment. In contrast, the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, while the broader S&P 500 index edged up by 0.1%, showcasing a mixed performance across the board. Traders remained watchful and exercised caution as they eagerly await the upcoming quarterly reports from major tech companies. These reports could have a considerable impact on market dynamics, influencing the direction of future trades and investor sentiment. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart As the new week kicked off, gold prices experienced a slight dip as investors exercised caution ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, copper prices faced significant losses, primarily driven by concerns surrounding weakening demand in China. The metal market witnessed additional pressures with the dollar staging a recovery. The greenback strengthened, moving away from the 15-month lows it had reached earlier in July. These developments have created a sense of uncertainty and wariness among investors, who are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for any signals that could impact the precious metals and copper markets. The performance of the dollar is also being closely scrutinized, as its strength or weakness can have substantial implications for metal prices and global trade dynamics. In light of the prevailing economic uncertainties, market participants are treading carefully and making informed decisions as they navigate through this crucial week, where the outcomes of central bank policies and macroeconomic indicators are expected to shape market trends in the near term. XAU/USD daily chart The spotlight in recent market activity has been firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve's forthcoming decision on interest rates, set to be revealed at the conclusion of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The prevailing consensus among investors is that the central bank will opt to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Nevertheless, there exists a strong belief among market participants that the Federal Reserve might also indicate a pause in future rate hikes. With the central bank nearing the conclusion of its nearly 16-month-long rate hike cycle, such a stance could signal a potential break from the previous trend of steady increases in interest rates. This prospect of an extended pause in rate hikes has caught the attention of investors, particularly in relation to the impact on the precious metal market, notably gold. Historically, rising interest rates tend to elevate the opportunity cost of investing in gold, as higher rates make alternative assets more appealing for yield-seeking investors. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve hints at a pause or slower pace of future rate increases, it could potentially be favorable for gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal compared to other interest-bearing assets. As the markets eagerly await the Fed's decision and the accompanying guidance, the implications for gold and other asset classes remain uncertain. The outcome of the meeting and the central bank's tone in their statements will undoubtedly have significant repercussions on investment strategies and market sentiment in the days to come. EUR/USD daily chart The dynamics in the EUR forward curve are undergoing a shift due to two essential factors. Firstly, foreign exchange traders are adjusting their pricing of lower US real rates in the long-term forwards after the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This indicates a realization that they may have been overly aggressive in their initial assessments. Secondly, the impact of ECB commentary on the Eurozone's economic data and inflation is likely to moderate, given the weaker economic indicators in the region. The Bank of Japan's decision on maintaining its current interest rates is also a significant point of interest. With rates at 0% or in negative territory for an extended period, it is somewhat expected that they will continue with this stance. China's 0% Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate is another crucial observation, as its potential spread could impact Japan first and have broader implications for global markets, particularly for stock markets and the future trajectory of the dollar. The actions and statements of these central banks will be closely watched by investors, as they could set the tone for market movements in the days to come. On a different note, the US earnings season is entering a crucial phase this week, with major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet preparing to release their reports. These earnings announcements are likely to have a significant impact on stock markets and investor sentiment. As the week unfolds, investors will be navigating through these key developments in global monetary policies, inflation trends, and corporate earnings, which will undoubtedly shape market dynamics and future trading strategies. MSFT stock daily chart META stock daily chart GOOG stock daily chart Absolutely, the upcoming earnings results of major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet are crucial in meeting market expectations and justifying the current valuation of the S&P 500. The current earnings multiple of 20 times and the substantial year-to-date gains of 19% in the index indicate high market optimism. Investors will be closely scrutinizing these earnings reports to assess the health and potential direction of the market. Meeting or exceeding market expectations in these reports will likely be seen as a positive sign, reinforcing confidence in the ongoing market rally. On the other hand, any disappointments or weaker-than-expected results could raise concerns and potentially lead to market corrections. Given the prevailing market conditions and the momentum in the S&P 500, investors are eager to ascertain the sustainability of the rally and whether the current valuations are justified by the underlying company fundamentals. As the earnings season unfolds, the market sentiment will be heavily influenced by the performance of these major companies, as well as the guidance provided by their management teams.
by FOREXN1
13
META suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section! META suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section! This chart shows the weekly candle chart of META stocks over the past two years. The graph overlays the top to bottom golden section of 2021. As shown in the figure, the high point of META stock in the past two weeks has been suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section in the figure, and it has now returned to below the 1.000 level of the golden section! In the next few weeks, the META stock is likely to step back at the 1.382 position in the golden section of the chart, and then choose a direction to break through!
NASDAQ:META
by Think_More
META Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold META here: Or reentered here: Then analyzing the options chain and chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 290usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $27.70. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by TopgOptions
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 13, 2023Key News: UK - GDP (MoM) (May) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - PPI (MoM) (Jun) Despite relinquishing some of its gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded Wednesday's trading session on a higher note. This positive finish was primarily attributed to a decline in Treasury yields and a surge in the tech sector, fueled by data indicating the slowest inflation increase in more than two years. The market sentiment has been uplifted by optimism that the forthcoming rate hike, scheduled for later this month, could potentially mark the conclusion of the tightening cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.25% climb, translating to a gain of 86 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq witnessed a robust increase of 1.2%, and the S&P 500 displayed a notable rise of 0.74%. DJI indices daily chart Nasdaq indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart In June, the consumer price index (CPI) registered a modest uptick, rising by 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in May. Additionally, the annual inflation rate eased from 4% to 3%, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. These figures suggest a reduced level of price pressures in the economy. While there remains an expectation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month, the outlook for additional rate increases beyond July becomes less certain. The uncertainty stems from the possibility of upcoming economic data revealing a continued deceleration in inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jefferies, in a recent note, highlighted the importance of upcoming economic indicators in determining the trajectory of rate hikes. If indicators such as the Employment Cost Index on July 28, along with employment and inflation data released in August, continue to exhibit a slowdown similar to the recent Consumer Price Index data, it suggests that the rate hike scheduled for July could potentially mark the conclusion of the current cycle. In line with this sentiment, major technology companies, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), experienced a rebound following a recent downturn. This recovery was fueled by a significant decline in Treasury yields, driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing their conclusion. GOOGL stocks daily chart MSFT stocks daily chart META stocks daily chart Microsoft's shares surged by over 1% as the tech behemoth made significant strides in the completion of its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ: ATVI), the renowned game developer responsible for the popular Call of Duty franchise. The acquisition received a boost as a Federal judge dismissed the Federal Trade Commission's request to delay the deal, citing insufficient evidence to support claims of potential competition harm. This favorable development played a crucial role in driving Microsoft's strong performance in the market. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The sell-off of the US dollar gained momentum after the release of the CPI data, leading to a rapid approach towards the 100 level on the dollar index. This consistent and significant movement has positive implications for global inflation dynamics. A weaker US dollar tends to drive down energy and raw material prices, which are often denominated in US dollars. Consequently, lower prices for these commodities can help alleviate inflationary pressures on a global scale. In contrast, a strengthening US dollar contributes to inflationary pressures worldwide. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar can provide relief in the face of such pressures. EUR/USD daily chart In the currency markets, notable movements were observed. The EUR/USD pair experienced a surge, reaching the 1.1150 level, indicating a strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair surpassed the significant 1.30 level, signaling a rise in the British pound against the US dollar. Conversely, the USD/JPY pair extended its decline, falling below the psychological level of 140, implying a weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the currency markets and the interplay between different currency pairs. USD/JPY daily chart The anticipated release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for June today is expected to provide further insight into the global economy's disinflationary trend. Forecasts suggest a significant deceleration in the headline PPI, dropping from 1.1% in May to 0.4% in June. The core PPI is also projected to experience a more modest slowdown, declining from 2.8% to 2.6%. The weakening figures from the PPI may have implications for future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating a continued disinflationary environment. This reinforces the notion that the forthcoming rate hike in the United States will likely be the final one in the current cycle. In summary, the June PPI numbers are expected to confirm the prevailing disinflationary trend in the global economy. The projected slowdown in PPI figures suggests potential effects on future CPI data and supports the belief that the upcoming rate hike will be the last one.
by FOREXN1
11
META Price, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 276.57 Volume: with daily volume greater than 19.42M Target: 306 area Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 266.76 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward. This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NASDAQ:METALong
by tradepatiently
META: Channel Up will attempt to close the February 2022 Gap.META maintains the aggressive four month Channel Up on an overbought 1D timeframe (RSI = 73.991, MACD = 9.890, ADX = 37.410) that shows no signs of easing before the next Resistance and that is located at 328.00, which was the High of February 2nd 2022. After that the stock price plunged to 245 following the loss of investor confidence. It would appear that the rally won't stop until it closes at least that Gap. As a result we go on a short term buy, targeting the Resistance (TP = 328.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:METALong
by InvestingScope
"Never bet against Zuck" $META topping out hereThere are many people that think that NASDAQ:META will keep rallying here to new highs. I'm not one of them. Lately I've been seeing people post "Never bet against Zuck." That tells me all I need to know about sentiment here at the highs. Like many other assets, I think META has rallied due to a technical bear market bounce and is now losing steam. We've either already put in a top here at resistance, or there is one more move slightly higher to $307.54 that will pull in the last of the holdouts that haven't invested yet before dumping on them. I don't care about narratives, whether it's AI, threads, VR or whatever fundamental reason you can give a company for "needing to go up." The reality is, it's all about market structure and what price action says. And to me, we're nearing a top that will take price back to below the previous low we hit last year. Let's see how it plays out over the coming year.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by benjihyam
4
Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JULY 11, 2023Key News: UK - Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (May) UK - Unemployment Rate (May) Eurozone - ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USA - EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook As the trading session unfolded on Monday evening, US stock futures exhibited a relatively limited range, maintaining a tight grip after three consecutive days of decline in major benchmark indices. Market participants eagerly anticipated the release of crucial inflation data and upcoming earnings reports, which held significant implications for the market trajectory. During the session, mega-cap stocks failed to deliver substantial support. Tesla, a prominent player in the electric vehicle industry, experienced a decline of up to 2% in its stock value, reflecting the prevailing cautious sentiment. Similarly, Amazon, a global e-commerce behemoth, concluded the session with a decrease of over 2%, just ahead of its highly anticipated Prime Day event. Over the years, Prime Day has evolved into a widely recognized shopping extravaganza across various industries, serving as an important indicator of the willingness of US consumers to increase their online spending and their overall economic sentiment. The performance of Amazon's stock during this event provides valuable insights into the health of the e-commerce sector and consumer spending patterns. TSLA stock daily chart AMZN stock daily chart In contrast to the aforementioned declines, Meta, formerly known as Facebook, witnessed a notable rise of 1.23% in its stock price during the session. This upward movement can be attributed to the success of its recently launched platform, Threads. Since its release, Threads has rapidly gained traction, accumulating an impressive user base of 100 million individuals. The platform's popularity and positive reception among users have contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding Meta's stock. Adding to the favorable outlook for Meta, internet traffic data provided by Cloudflare revealed a substantial decrease in Twitter usage. This decline in Twitter's popularity further bolstered the positive sentiment surrounding Meta, as it indicates a potential shift in user preferences and a possible migration of users towards Meta's platforms. Overall, Meta's stock performance during the session reflected the market's positive response to the success of Threads and the perception of a decline in Twitter's popularity, positioning Meta as a favorable investment option in the tech sector. META stock daily chart Yesterday, there was a notable increase in the amount of money invested in treasuries, causing the US 2-year yield to decrease by around 10 basis points. Surprisingly, even though there were predictions of a tough approach by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar unexpectedly plummeted below its long-standing upward trend line. Consequently, individuals with a pessimistic view on the dollar are now focusing on reaching the 100 level as their next objective. USD/JPY daily chart The dollar-yen pair experienced a significant drop below the 141 level and is now approaching the 50-day moving average (DMA) support, located around the 140 level. On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair rallied above the 1.10 mark, disregarding a sentiment index that suggests a faster deterioration in the Eurozone during July. The upcoming release of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to confirm a recent increase in inflation, primarily driven by the positive impact of low-priced train tickets distributed by the government last year. However, the ZEW index is anticipated to reflect a worsening sentiment. While higher German inflation generally benefits the euro, it remains uncertain how much significance Christine Lagarde and her colleagues at the European Central Bank (ECB) attach to sentiment indicators. EUR/USD daily chart Despite the expectations of a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, the US dollar continues to weaken. Simultaneously, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to adopt a more hawkish approach. These factors combined could potentially lead to a further rise in the EUR/USD pair, with the possibility of reaching the 1.12 level. Looking ahead to Tuesday, European stock markets are expected to open with gains, taking cues from the positive performance of Wall Street and Asian markets during the previous session. Market participants will closely analyze important data on German inflation and UK unemployment. The optimistic sentiment in Europe can be attributed to the strong finish of Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed over 200 points or 0.6%. This surge was influenced by signals indicating that the Federal Reserve was nearing the completion of its interest rate hike cycle for the year. DJI daily chart Asian markets saw mostly higher stock prices in early trading on Tuesday, and this positive trend is expected to carry over to European markets as well. The optimism follows comments made by several officials from the US Federal Reserve on Monday, suggesting that interest rates will need to be raised further to address inflation concerns, but also indicating that the tightening cycle is nearing its end. Throughout the year, concerns have persisted that the Federal Reserve's aggressive measures to control inflation could potentially trigger a recession in the largest global economy, which greatly impacts global growth. These concerns have put pressure on markets worldwide. In other news, the British pound exhibited a slight weakness after the release of a private sector survey highlighting a slowdown in wage growth and hiring pace in June. While recent data has shown limited evidence of this trend, the upcoming release of figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today may provide further clarity, albeit with a lag. GBP/USD Daily chart Approximately a month ago, the UK witnessed a noteworthy development in the April wage numbers, which underscored the challenges faced by the Bank of England. The data revealed a surge in wage growth, reaching a record high of 7.2%, excluding the pandemic period. This significant increase led to a rise in UK 2-year gilt yields, surpassing the peaks observed in October of the previous year, following the ill-fated Kwarteng budget. The sharp rise in wages in recent months has shed light on the Bank of England's failure to take timely action. Workers, already grappling with financial pressures from various sources, are advocating for larger pay raises to narrow the gap in real wages. The release of May's wage data today is unlikely to indicate a weakening in these upward pressures, as expectations suggest a growth rate of 7.1% for the three-month period ending in May.
by FOREXN1
3