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Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present. You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish. And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top. Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious. The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top. Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly: Only sweep the All Time High? Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did? Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT: In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past. Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice. The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment. The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide". Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time. If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life. Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year). The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire. Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time. Much to do before the call's key points. Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead: SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It? Back to MSFT: This is a very hard setup to trade Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22) Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy But the short may only take us to the $320 range. Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all. Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is. After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH. But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT. Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers. When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by LordWrymouth
1
✅ Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 27, 2023Key News: Eurozone - Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) Eurozone - ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) USA - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun); USA - GDP (QoQ) (Q2; USA - Initial Jobless Claims; Eurozone - ECB Press Conference USA - Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) On Wednesday evening, US stock futures exhibited a mixed trend following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that was in line with market expectations. The major averages saw diverse trading patterns as investors closely monitored earnings reports from significant companies. At 6:55 pm ET, Dow Jones Futures declined by 0.2%, indicating a slightly negative sentiment for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Meanwhile, S&P 500 Futures remained unchanged, suggesting a relatively stable outlook for the broader market represented by the S&P 500 index. On the other hand, Nasdaq 100 Futures rose by 0.2%, indicating a positive bias for the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index. The mixed trends in the futures market reflect the uncertainty and cautiousness among investors as they digest the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and closely analyze corporate earnings reports. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates was widely anticipated, but the nuances in their accompanying statements and the economic outlook can still influence market sentiment. NASDAQ indices daily chart SPX indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart During extended trading, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META) experienced a significant 7% surge in its stock price following the release of its second-quarter earnings report. The company's Q2 earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.98, surpassing market expectations, which had anticipated earnings of $2.91 per share. Furthermore, Meta Platforms reported total revenues of $32 billion for the quarter, exceeding the projected revenue figure of $31.08 billion. Investors responded positively to the strong financial performance of the company, driving its stock price higher in after-hours trading. The better-than-expected earnings and revenues indicated a robust performance during the quarter and suggested that Meta Platforms was outperforming market forecasts. In addition to the impressive Q2 results, Meta Platforms Inc also provided optimistic guidance for the upcoming third quarter of 2023. The company forecasted revenues in the range of $32 billion to $34.5 billion for Q3, which surpassed the market's expected revenue of $31.2 billion. This positive outlook for the next quarter further contributed to the stock's increase in after-hours trading. Overall, Meta Platforms Inc's strong Q2 financial results and optimistic guidance for Q3 have buoyed investor confidence in the company's performance and future prospects, leading to a notable increase in its stock price during extended trading. Meta Platforms daily chart After reporting its second-quarter earnings, eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) faced a decline of 4.8% in its stock value. The company's Q2 earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $1.03, slightly higher than the market's expectations of $0.99 per share. However, the company's Q2 revenues came in at $2.5 billion, slightly below the anticipated revenue figure of $2.51 billion. The stock price decline indicates that despite beating earnings estimates, investors may have been disappointed with eBay's revenue performance for the quarter. The revenue miss could have raised concerns about the company's ability to drive top-line growth in a competitive market. Looking ahead to the next quarter, eBay provided a positive outlook for its financials. The company projected EPS in the range of $0.96 to $1.01, surpassing the market's expected EPS of $0.92. Additionally, eBay forecasted revenues in the range of $2.46 billion to $2.52 billion, significantly higher than the market's expected revenue of $2.23 billion. The optimistic guidance for the next quarter suggests that eBay management expects improved financial performance in the coming months. This outlook might have provided some reassurance to investors, preventing a steeper decline in the stock price. Overall, the mixed reaction to eBay's earnings report reflects the complex interplay of various factors in the stock market. While beating EPS estimates and providing a positive outlook for the next quarter could be seen as positive signs, the slight revenue miss in Q2 may have tempered investor enthusiasm and led to the stock price decline. As with all earnings reports, market participants closely assess the financial metrics and guidance to form their investment decisions, which can result in varied reactions to the same set of results. eBay daily chart The Federal Reserve has implemented a 25 basis points increase in interest rates, bringing the range to 5.25% to 5.50%. This move marks the highest interest rate level observed in 22 years and aligns with the Fed's ongoing tightening campaign. In their statement, the Fed expressed a positive outlook for economic growth, acknowledging that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. This represents a slight improvement compared to their previous description of growth as "modest." The focus on consumer prices remains a top priority for the Fed, as they emphasized that inflation continues to be elevated. Policymakers will closely monitor the risks associated with inflation, just as they have been doing in the previous months. The decision to raise interest rates was widely anticipated by the market, as the Federal Reserve has been communicating its intention to address the inflation surge and gradually normalize interest rates in response to the economic recovery. By increasing interest rates, the Fed aims to curb inflationary pressures and maintain a balanced economic environment. As the Fed continues to monitor economic developments and inflation data, future interest rate adjustments will likely be influenced by the pace of economic growth and the trajectory of inflation. The central bank will take a data-dependent approach to ensure that its monetary policy remains aligned with the evolving economic conditions. US Dollar Currency Index After the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates, the US dollar experienced a decline against various currencies. This weakening of the dollar resulted in a notable increase in gold prices. As a safe-haven asset, gold tends to perform well during periods of uncertainty and when the value of the US dollar is under pressure. Investors are now closely monitoring key resistance levels for gold. The $1,973 level is seen as a minor resistance, and if gold surpasses this level, it could signal further upward momentum. Above that, the $1,978 level becomes significant, and a break above it might lead to additional gains for gold. The central bank's indication of a data-driven approach to future rate hikes means that the pace of rate increases will depend on the economic data and developments. This stance has been interpreted positively for gold as it implies that the Fed may be cautious in its tightening measures, which can weaken the US dollar and boost gold prices. Gold's strength in pushing further into the high-$1,900 an ounce territory indicates that investors are turning to the precious metal as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. The lingering uncertainty in the financial markets and the ongoing focus on inflation by the Federal Reserve have contributed to gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. As global economic conditions and central bank policies continue to evolve, gold prices may remain sensitive to changes in the US dollar and market sentiment. Investors will closely follow economic data releases, monetary policy statements, and geopolitical developments to gauge the outlook for gold and make informed investment decisions. XAU/USD daily chart Despite showing some strength, gold remained stuck in a tight trading range for the past two weeks and struggled to break above the critical $2,000 an-ounce mark, which is often considered a significant level that could trigger further upward movement in the metal's price. One exception to the overall trend in the currency market was the Australian dollar. It defied expectations and weakened after the release of data that indicated a slowdown in domestic inflation during the second quarter. The decrease in inflation reduced the pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement further policy-tightening measures. The data revealed that Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 6% during the second quarter. This represented a deceleration from the 7% recorded in the first quarter and fell below the market's expectations of 6.2%. As a result, the Australian dollar depreciated to approximately $0.676 against the US dollar. The lower-than-expected inflation figures indicate that price pressures in Australia are not rising as quickly as anticipated, giving the RBA room to maintain a wait-and-see approach on monetary policy. A weaker inflation outlook reduces the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the near term, which can weigh on the currency's value. Overall, the tight trading range for gold and the Australian dollar's depreciation following the inflation data release reflect the cautious and uncertain market sentiment amid ongoing economic and monetary policy developments. AUD/USD daily chart This week, the market's attention is not only on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision but also on upcoming rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the BOJ is likely to maintain its ultra-low rates and continue with its dovish policies. However, traders are cautiously watching for a potential hawkish surprise from the BOJ, given inflation trending above its target. The possibility of rising interest rates is generally considered negative for metal markets, and it is anticipated to limit significant gains in gold throughout the year. In Thursday's trading session, several important economic indicators will be closely monitored, including fresh core durable goods orders, GDP data, pending home sales, and jobless claims. These data points can offer valuable insights into the health and performance of the US economy. Furthermore, earnings reports from major companies such as Mastercard Inc, McDonald’s Corporation, Intel Corporation, and Nestle SA ADR will be in focus. These earnings releases can have a substantial impact on the respective company's stock prices and may also influence broader market sentiment. Overall, this week's events are likely to play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and direction, with investors closely analyzing central bank decisions, economic data releases, and corporate earnings reports to make informed investment decisions.
by FOREXN1
17
Is the SNAP Sell Off overreaction a Reversal Setup?Yes, I think that it is. On the 15-minute chart, the price action of the post-earnings drop is seen The earnings beat the analysts. Price has started a low momentum recovery. The dual time frame RSI shows the low/blue line RS rising above the high/black line. SNAP is in the deep oversold and undervalued territory in the area of the lowermost intermediate-term anchored VWAP lines. The mass index indicator triggered a reversal in the pre-market hours today. I will take a cautious long trade here expecting a price appreciation to 11.8 at or below the mean black VWAP.or about 10%.
NYSE:SNAPLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?The question at the top of everyone's minds right now is: have the markets topped? It's the kind of question that allows for a great deal of manipulation as sentiment, emotions, and the P&L column are manipulated violently. Since the markets were wildly bullish last quarter, inside of an overall market that is not bullish, and economic fundamentals that are pretty bad, your guard should certainly be up when you see a new quarter begin and price continue to run rampant. I discuss the parameters of a new quarter in the below post: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar And elaborate my feelings on the Nasdaq here: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap Caveat to the above is I now expect the Nas to only do, say, 14,400 and ultimately target the 16,000 figure. You're in an overall market where the US Petrodollar is set to rally, and rally hard: DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Even though the dollar might only do 108. And our good friend the VIX is too low to be sustainable for any kind of bull run, because they love "selling volatility and going away," so things need to be reset. VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude Geopolitically, there are a lot of problems. Specifically with China. Since Secretary of Treasury Yellen visited Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping and other government officials, there has suddenly been a huge posturing of "Taiwan war" rhetoric in the whole international media propaganda apparatus. China is in no condition to try to invade Taiwan after the damage the pandemic has caused for the last three years, however. In my view, what's really going on is the Chinese Communist Party is about to either be forcibly overthrown by "outside forces" (NATO, Washington, the "International Rules Based Order") via Taiwan. Or Xi is about to dump the CCP to defend the motherland, since he and his faction are major Chinese nationalists. Either way, you have to be very careful if you want to go long on dips. Don't full port or anything stupid, and if you want to go bigly long, do yourself a favour and hedge long on something with volatility. Because whatever happens will happen in Beijing time, which happens to be 12 hours ahead of New York time. Meaning whatever happens will be gap down time. And if Xi dumps the Party and weaponizes the 24-year long persecution of Falun Gong by former CCP Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toadling faction, the entire world is going to be implicated in the inquest. Because everyone has been going over to the Mainland to dirty themselves with Jiang and the Spectre of Communism in order to get the financial and social benefits they desire. But as long as things stay on course, here's the call. When it comes to SPY, it's hard to argue what is up isn't going to keep going up. If you ask me, the first target has to be the $461 March of 2022 high. But we've been up a lot for a long time, and SPY set its thus-far July low at $437 on only the third trading day of the month, which was a shortened week because of Canada Day and Independence Day to begin with. You can see that something is amiss by looking at the SPX Futures contract against the DXY, which lost 400 pips in roughly 10 days, marking a significant and strange divergence. Another significant tell is in the Dow, which is the weakest of the indexes right now and a leader, where the DIA ETF made a new high (2 cents, hard to see) but the underlying futures contract did not. This may indicate that the alleged bullish momentum from last week is fraudulent, at least in the short term. Possibly the long term. Friday's market action was really bullish on open and then really bearish on close, which likely means we're due for a reversal. We have an entire eight trading days until the next FOMC rate announcement. After July, there's no meeting until September. So what I think we're about to see is to have a proper July low of the month get set. And before the month ends we'll see a bounce, and our bounce will lead to the $463 target being achieved during the first week of August. And so if we have a middling/strugglebus Monday, it's worth considering reducing your long exposure, if you have long exposure. I think the $433 figure is the target because everyone is a Mason in reality and they just love 33 so much. It also doesn't break the June pivot, which aligns with the August of '22 pivot that was already taken out. More importantly, if $463 is achieved, you have to be exceedingly cautious. There's a certain degree of "financial shocks" that are arranged for Q4 and Q1, 2, and maybe even 3 of 2024 that you will find exceptionally difficult to endure. So make sure you make up for any regrets you have with your friends and family, as soon as possible. Make sure you stand on the right side of history when it comes to humanity's future and the CCP and its Marxist-Leninist junk. Money, fame, power, and sex aren't worth selling your soul for.
AMEX:SPYLong
by LordWrymouth
3
META Is this the start of a significant correction?Since November last year we have been issuing a strong buy signal on Meta Platforms (META) and our most recent analysis on February 02 (see chart below) came with a huge final bullish warning while the price was still at $189.00: The stock hit $320.00 last week, almost filling the gap with the 1W candle of January 31 2022 (practically META's start of collapse) and pulled-back. The big question on the market this week is, can that be the start of a greater correction? Well technically it is testing today the first key support level, the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the 6 month Channel Up pattern that started in late February. If broken, it is unlikely to see the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) hold. The key (technical) reason behind it, is the massive Bearish Cross that got formed this week on the 1W MACD. This is a major development as it is a rare event that always initiated a rather notable pull-back. More specifically, in the past five (5) years, we have had another six (6) 1W MACD Bearish Crosses, all making a Lower Lows after it. The minimum correction was -17.33% while the maximum -43.50%. Practically META made its large corrections (-43.50%, -38.60%) when it faced legal action and during the pandemic. The rest standard (technical) pull-backs ranged from -17.33% to -19.70% (also -28.15% on the last Bearish Cross but fundamentals were also present). This is the reason we expect a pull-back below the 1D MA50 if the Higher Lows of the Channel Up fail (to close 1D candles above it). The minimum projected correction range of -17.33% would give us a pull-back to $265.00. A -19.70% would give $256.00. That would start making META a technical buy again, where long term investors can start applying buying strategies with a tolerance level up to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:META
by TradingShot
2
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 24, 2023Key News: UK - S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI USA - S&P Global US Services PMI (Jul) The Dow Jones Industrial Average celebrated a remarkable milestone on Friday, securing its 10th consecutive weekly gain and extending its longest winning streak since 2017. However, the market's positive performance was tempered by cautiousness among traders ahead of the upcoming quarterly results from major tech companies. The Dow managed a marginal increase of 0.01%, equivalent to a mere 3 points, which might seem modest, but it's significant given the index's prolonged daily winning streak, last witnessed on August 7, 2017. The primary force behind the Dow's recent success lies in the gains made by defensive sectors, particularly utilities, which have helped bolster overall market sentiment. In contrast, the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, while the broader S&P 500 index edged up by 0.1%, showcasing a mixed performance across the board. Traders remained watchful and exercised caution as they eagerly await the upcoming quarterly reports from major tech companies. These reports could have a considerable impact on market dynamics, influencing the direction of future trades and investor sentiment. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart As the new week kicked off, gold prices experienced a slight dip as investors exercised caution ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, copper prices faced significant losses, primarily driven by concerns surrounding weakening demand in China. The metal market witnessed additional pressures with the dollar staging a recovery. The greenback strengthened, moving away from the 15-month lows it had reached earlier in July. These developments have created a sense of uncertainty and wariness among investors, who are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for any signals that could impact the precious metals and copper markets. The performance of the dollar is also being closely scrutinized, as its strength or weakness can have substantial implications for metal prices and global trade dynamics. In light of the prevailing economic uncertainties, market participants are treading carefully and making informed decisions as they navigate through this crucial week, where the outcomes of central bank policies and macroeconomic indicators are expected to shape market trends in the near term. XAU/USD daily chart The spotlight in recent market activity has been firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve's forthcoming decision on interest rates, set to be revealed at the conclusion of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The prevailing consensus among investors is that the central bank will opt to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Nevertheless, there exists a strong belief among market participants that the Federal Reserve might also indicate a pause in future rate hikes. With the central bank nearing the conclusion of its nearly 16-month-long rate hike cycle, such a stance could signal a potential break from the previous trend of steady increases in interest rates. This prospect of an extended pause in rate hikes has caught the attention of investors, particularly in relation to the impact on the precious metal market, notably gold. Historically, rising interest rates tend to elevate the opportunity cost of investing in gold, as higher rates make alternative assets more appealing for yield-seeking investors. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve hints at a pause or slower pace of future rate increases, it could potentially be favorable for gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal compared to other interest-bearing assets. As the markets eagerly await the Fed's decision and the accompanying guidance, the implications for gold and other asset classes remain uncertain. The outcome of the meeting and the central bank's tone in their statements will undoubtedly have significant repercussions on investment strategies and market sentiment in the days to come. EUR/USD daily chart The dynamics in the EUR forward curve are undergoing a shift due to two essential factors. Firstly, foreign exchange traders are adjusting their pricing of lower US real rates in the long-term forwards after the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This indicates a realization that they may have been overly aggressive in their initial assessments. Secondly, the impact of ECB commentary on the Eurozone's economic data and inflation is likely to moderate, given the weaker economic indicators in the region. The Bank of Japan's decision on maintaining its current interest rates is also a significant point of interest. With rates at 0% or in negative territory for an extended period, it is somewhat expected that they will continue with this stance. China's 0% Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate is another crucial observation, as its potential spread could impact Japan first and have broader implications for global markets, particularly for stock markets and the future trajectory of the dollar. The actions and statements of these central banks will be closely watched by investors, as they could set the tone for market movements in the days to come. On a different note, the US earnings season is entering a crucial phase this week, with major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet preparing to release their reports. These earnings announcements are likely to have a significant impact on stock markets and investor sentiment. As the week unfolds, investors will be navigating through these key developments in global monetary policies, inflation trends, and corporate earnings, which will undoubtedly shape market dynamics and future trading strategies. MSFT stock daily chart META stock daily chart GOOG stock daily chart Absolutely, the upcoming earnings results of major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet are crucial in meeting market expectations and justifying the current valuation of the S&P 500. The current earnings multiple of 20 times and the substantial year-to-date gains of 19% in the index indicate high market optimism. Investors will be closely scrutinizing these earnings reports to assess the health and potential direction of the market. Meeting or exceeding market expectations in these reports will likely be seen as a positive sign, reinforcing confidence in the ongoing market rally. On the other hand, any disappointments or weaker-than-expected results could raise concerns and potentially lead to market corrections. Given the prevailing market conditions and the momentum in the S&P 500, investors are eager to ascertain the sustainability of the rally and whether the current valuations are justified by the underlying company fundamentals. As the earnings season unfolds, the market sentiment will be heavily influenced by the performance of these major companies, as well as the guidance provided by their management teams.
by FOREXN1
13
META suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section! META suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section! This chart shows the weekly candle chart of META stocks over the past two years. The graph overlays the top to bottom golden section of 2021. As shown in the figure, the high point of META stock in the past two weeks has been suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section in the figure, and it has now returned to below the 1.000 level of the golden section! In the next few weeks, the META stock is likely to step back at the 1.382 position in the golden section of the chart, and then choose a direction to break through!
NASDAQ:META
by Think_More
META Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold META here: Or reentered here: Then analyzing the options chain and chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 290usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $27.70. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by TopgOptions