Meta
Trade Idea - Meta at a pivotal areaMETA has been doing the heavy lifting for the communication sector.
One of the reasons communication sector is the best performing sector year to date is simply because of Metas outperformance.
Once the key moving average intersects it likey will result in a downtrend. Meta bulls have more work to do to stop this.
$META Weekly Breakout$META looks nice here. Weekly breakout above $200, with a nice gap to fill. I would like to see more volume to confirm the move but not much selling going on. Clean and simple base. Be patient and alert, things can change on a dime. If you recognize these changes and act accordingly, you will be ok.
META W1 UPDATE ( TECHNICAL )For more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial.
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META - Rising Trend [MIDTERM]- Medium term Investors have paid higher prices over time to buy Meta and the stock is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- This signals increasing optimism among investors and indicates continued rise.
- META has broken up through resistance at 183.
- This predicts a further rise.
- Positive volume balance indicates that buyers are aggressive while sellers are passive, and strengthens the stock.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
META Layoffs: Good or Bad?Most people assume layoffs are going to drive the price of the stock down. NOPE, general consensus on the professional side is the sooner layoffs begin, the faster the company can recover from declining revenues and earnings, and reinvent.
META is a stock in a sub-industry that has few members, hence it is used in many ETFs and mutual funds due to that rare sub-industry group.
It has some stiff resistance shown best on the weekly chart above current price. But with support from institutional investors, the stronger support level in the bottom formation is likely to hold.
META: Breakout: Cup and HandleMETA breakout with a first stage base/rounded bottom & accumulation. Low volume confluence with "handle" is setting up for breakout and second stage. KL: 204.80, 211.64, 217.51, 226.84, 236.99// Long Bias on higher auction and price rediscovery from levels last seen in Jan 2022 sees PT of 289.11// Beta: 1.16, ATR 6.79, IV: 40.55% // Bias: Risk On; Failure < 184.87// Price at time of publish: 200.79
$META Long (Cup and Handle Breakout)Over the last few weeks, the market has experienced severe volatility due to the Financial crisis, collapse in oil prices, and indexes getting slammed.
However, the Growth areas of the market ($QQQ) and in particular Tech and Communication names have held up strong.
$META, being one of the largest components of $XLC (along with $GOOG/$GOOGL), gapped up on ER into what we would refer to as a COD setup.
The market has now given us a Cup and Handle breakout, along with a bullish momentum regime in the RSI, which we are using to justify a long position targeting the 230/230 area.
We will be using the Jun16 230/235 Call Debit Spreads at 1.00 to capture this potential price movement. At 93 DTE, we have plenty of time to withstand consolidations along the way.
We will cut with a stop below 185.
Low IV consolidation IV Rank on META is relatively low currently based on historical averages and the previous earning reports have been negative.
Looking to create an Iron Condor one standard deviation away from price to collect premium on the time decay as there may be some sideways trending movement
META: Possible LONG Setup Ahead - Fundamental NewsMeta Platforms has faced some challenges in recent times, with a drop in share prices since its peak in 2021, and investors remaining cautious about its future prospects despite a recent recovery. Its advertising business has been struggling to maintain its former success, which has put significant pressure on the company's profitability. However, Meta's family of apps has experienced growth in engagement throughout 2022, which suggests that the company is still relevant. To improve efficiency and profitability, Meta is focusing on cost-cutting measures in 2023.
Nevertheless, there are concerns about Meta's recent investment in the metaverse industry, with the Reality Labs metaverse business showing a slight decline in revenues in 2022. While the potential for the metaverse to generate significant revenue is optimistic, the industry would have to reach mass distribution to achieve such numbers. Furthermore, it may take longer than expected for the metaverse to gain mainstream adoption, resulting in a lower return on investment for Meta.
Overall, there are too many uncertainties for most investors to feel comfortable with Meta's current situation, with the advertising business under pressure and the metaverse venture still burning through cash. However, for investors with a high tolerance for volatility, taking a small position in Meta stock could be an option if they believe in the long-term recovery and growth of the advertising business and the potential for the metaverse business to generate significant revenue in the future.
Bear Bounce in META May Push Further before Downtrend ContinuesPrimary Chart: Daily Time Frame, 8-D and 21-D EMAs, Long-Term Fibonacci Levels (Retracements of META's Entire Range), Uptrend from Nov. 4, 2022 Low
SUMMARY:
META remains in a severe downtrend since its all-time high in September 2021. The primary-degree trendline remains unbroken and in effect. A shorter down trendline for most of 2022 has been broken coinciding with its recent upside price action.
META is experiencing a corrective rally, also known as a bear bounce (until proven otherwise).
Bollinger Bands support the idea of further upside with the mouth of the bands expanding, and price walking the bands to the upside. The Donchian Channels also show that price is reaching multi-month highs, and its 21-period range is expanding as price pushes higher.
Target 1 lies at $142. Target 2 is $149. Target 3 is $157-$158. Each target requires that price reach and hold the prior target on a daily close. Each target is a condition precedent for the next target's viability.
Invalidation levels include the uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows as well as major support levels at $112 (key structural low), $115-$116 (volume profile).
META began its decline much earlier than the broader indices. It peaked at an ATH on September 1, 2021, while SPX peaked on January 4, 2022. It has appeared to lead indices by a few months in this bear market. The long-term uptrend line from 2012 more than a decade ago was decisively broken in early 2022. This suggests that it may take a while for META to begin carving out a new uptrend line at a less steep angle based on whatever bear-market lows are formed—whether that be the November 4, 2022 low or a (likely) new low in 2023.
Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of META with Decade-Long Upward Trendline
The bear-market downtrend lines are shown on Supplementary Chart B. The pink line on the Primary Chart reflects the primary-degree of trend since the all-time high in mid-2022. That line has not been broken, and price remains well below it. The dark-blue line is a shorter trendline that lasts for most of 2022. It was broken to the upside in early December 2022. This is no surprise. Steeper trendlines are less sustainable, and often end up being replaced by their less steep counterparts. The break of the dark-blue line is not an end to the bear market, but it does signal a short-term shift that coincides with the sideways to higher corrective rally taking place.
Supplementary Chart B: Trendlines within META's Current Bear Market
In this bear market, META made its most recent low on November 4, 2022. An uptrend drawn from that low is drawn (pink line on Primary Chart above). META's short-term EMAs show that it has been rallying in earnest since this November 4 low. Note the slope of the 8-D EMA and the 21-D EMA. While these are simple indicators, sometimes their simplicity can cause some to miss the power of their message—indicating the short-term trend. The short-term trend remains positive, with price finding support at these EMAs. When price falls below the 21-D EMA, it quickly rises to reclaim it. See Primary Chart.
The Bollinger Bands also reflect the upward rally, which should be deemed corrective until proven otherwise. The Bollinger Bands are widening at the mouth, and when price pushes through the bands to exhaustion levels (set at 2 standard deviations on this daily chart), it falls back but quickly pushes back into the bands. Yes, the CPI could end this prematurely, but technical analysis suggests this stock has further to run before it resumes its longer-term downtrend.
Supplementary Chart C: Bollinger Bands
Similar to the Bollinger Bands, the Donchian Channels also reflect an increase in volatility to the upside. Price is pushing new multi-month highs, which is easily seen using this indicator. As the upper band of the Donchian presses higher with price touching it, that reflects new 21-trading-day highs. But a quick glance at the chart below shows that the highs exceed all highs since late October lows. The October 2022 highs are the ones that will likely be taken out next if the rally continues.
Supplementary Chart D: Donchian Channels
Major support lies at $112, and $115-$116. In addition, the upward TL can easily be used as an invalidation level for any short-term bullish trades. It can also be used as confirmation for any shorts that wish to enter when the bounce exhausts.
Targets are based on the measured-move concept and Fibonacci proportions. Target 1 is $142. That is the 150-day SMA. Target 2 is $149. This level is the measured move area where wave A (or wave W) equals wave C (or wave Y) from the lows. Target 3 is $157-$158. Target 3 is a confluence of levels including (i) the 1.272 extension of first leg of this rally projected from the start of the second leg, (ii) the .618 retracement of META's entire price range going back to the start of data on the chart, and (iii) the 200-day SMA based on today's date, which lies at $158.
The bounce idea is invalidated if price falls below $112-$116. It may also be invalidated (depending on several factors) if price breaks below the pink uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows.
Lastly, to quickly and effortlessly see the major support (supply zone) for the current corrective rally, see the blue rectangle below. Breaking this level should signal the next leg lower is underway in the primary-degree downtrend.
Supplementary Chart E: Support / Supply Zone
Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year! May your trades and risk-management work out very well this year.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for PermabearsNo matter how much you read in the establishment media or in the narrative-controlled and socially engineered Twitter and Discord and Reddit forums about "recession" this and "bear market" that, the reality is that while some individual stocks have certainly been a bear market for well over a year, the indexes are not a bear market.
I made the call back at the beginning of November that the Nasdaq would head towards 14,000. The results were that it went up to 12,000 and came back near the lows, and three months has passed.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
Price action is easy, timing is hard. That's the most significant thing I have enlightened to.
But here we are in February after a serious rally, and now that the post-FOMC pump has come and gone, the narrative has become "this is the top" and "the crash is coming."
However, just look at the weekly and monthly bars. This isn't bear market stuff.
Monthly
The literal last five months of Nasdaq futures has been a psychological operation against the COVID-June and COVID-October trendlines and the 2022 low of the year.
It's incredibly obvious on the weekly candles
Weekly
The most notable thing is that the end of the year did not breach the October low, and 2023 opened with a big bounce.
This tells us both that the low of the year isn't very likely to have transpired yet, and that we're still far away from a LOY unfolding.
Moreover, I've seen posts on Twitter that were tracking the SPX and the VIX against the 2008 GFC, 2002, and even the Dot Com bubble, and the January bullish divergence has thrown out all the prior price action to at least the 1970s crashes.
It's time for a revolution in our thinking.
What people don't understand or want to understand about the fundamentals is that when the fundamentals are bad, price is often bound to do what's contrary to expectations, and go up. So long as the market makers have time to work with, they will raise the prices and raise the prices for the purposes of selling YOU, retail dead money, the stocks they've held for a long time and bought more of at each successive low, at higher and higher prices in anticipation of the real crash.
The secondary effect this has is that while you're told by whoever it is that you're consciously or unconsciously taking orders from that the markets are about to crash BECAUSE RECESSION, FED FUNDS RATE, PROFIT/EARNINGS TOO HIGH, you're buying puts while it goes up. They expire worthless, you blow your account, and some Chad at JP Morgan goes for Happy Hour at 1:00 and wakes up under his car after a prostitute stole his Rolex.
Modern human life is total garbage. Return to tradition and find art and family again.
What's important about where we're at right now is that Nasdaq has finally retraced to its September CPI dump candle pivot, which it failed to breach, and looks to be setting up a double top after Friday's pullback.
In my opinion, we're about to get a very nice pullback that will serve as a simultaneous scare to shake out longs, and also a trap for permabears to leverage their entire accounts on puts and 1.5-3x short ETFs.
I'm specifically looking for a dump back under 12,000, which I believe is a long for price action that will take out the August highs by the end of March.
If you don't believe that Nasdaq can take out the August highs, then let me ask you a question: Why did the Dow, the most bearish of all indexes, take out the August highs in the middle of December?
In fact, the Dow as it stands is less than 10% away from setting a new all time high.
After what now amounts to 3 months of market action that isn't going lower combined with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hikes, ask yourself why you think stocks should go down?
The truth is that the markets are going to crash. A terrifying market crash unlike the others has been arranged. But why do you think that the indexes either setting new highs, or doing a 76% retracement to the old highs, or setting a double top at the old highs, is out of the question before it unfolds?
Nobody has an answer to that, besides that they think it's out of the realm of possibility, for really no reason at all.
What you think can happen has nothing to do with what is actually happening, and this is the fatal flaw of an ordinary person, who only believes in what they can see while refusing to believe in what they cannot see.
Once the truth stands before your eyes, it's too late to profit. All you can do is feel regret that you missed the opportunity. Not so bad with the stock market, but when it comes to major things in life, there are no mulligans in the Cosmos.
Nasdaq to 14,500 by the end of March is my call. Buy the February dip if we get one and take profit over the old highs.
Red Communist China is the Blackest Swan
As always, you need to be careful in bullish market conditions, because an enormous black swan exists lingering in wait. That black swan is the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in mainland China as Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are on the verge of collapse.
The CCP claims that 85,000 people (~54/1 million on a population-adjusted basis) have died from COVID since the pandemic began. This is despite the virus being engineered there, patient zero being in Wuhan, and the country being the most populous in the world. For comparison's sake, the US has a quarter the population, but has lost 1.1 million people (3,000~/1 million) to COVID.
Even nearby Japan is posting 600 deaths per million people.
Is it really realistic to believe the Party has suffered a factor of 60 fewer losses than a country across the ocean?
And this is the same CCP that is a lying, murderous regime who has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of organ harvesting during its persecution of Falun Gong.
The same CCP that covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic and made it seem to the outside world that barely anyone died.
The same CCP that every single human being who wants a future should be opposing with all of their might.
If you don't want a future, why are you trying to make money trading stocks? If you lose your future, can you spend your winnings and have a happy life?
It's up to you what you believe. An ordinary human has the flaw where they don't believe anything that isn't in front of their face, which is why they like to fall for the lies of establishment media and social media influencers.
The wise ones figure it out before the cards turn face up on the river and the dealer awards the pot, though. The fools get stacked and will lose more than just some casino chips.
NYSE FANG+ Index: wait is better⌛' The NYSE FANG+ Index is a rules-based, equal-weighted equity benchmark designed to track
the performance of 10 highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies in the
technology, media & communications and consumer discretionary sectors'.
Companies included in the index:
Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, NVIDIA, Snowflake and Advanced Micro Devices.
Graphically speaking, I would expect a better definition of which way the price is going.
Looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index, I would say that opening a long position would be too risky.
Below are some possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5: