$META Long (Cup and Handle Breakout)Over the last few weeks, the market has experienced severe volatility due to the Financial crisis, collapse in oil prices, and indexes getting slammed.
However, the Growth areas of the market ($QQQ) and in particular Tech and Communication names have held up strong.
$META, being one of the largest components of $XLC (along with $GOOG/$GOOGL), gapped up on ER into what we would refer to as a COD setup.
The market has now given us a Cup and Handle breakout, along with a bullish momentum regime in the RSI, which we are using to justify a long position targeting the 230/230 area.
We will be using the Jun16 230/235 Call Debit Spreads at 1.00 to capture this potential price movement. At 93 DTE, we have plenty of time to withstand consolidations along the way.
We will cut with a stop below 185.
Meta
Low IV consolidation IV Rank on META is relatively low currently based on historical averages and the previous earning reports have been negative.
Looking to create an Iron Condor one standard deviation away from price to collect premium on the time decay as there may be some sideways trending movement
META: Possible LONG Setup Ahead - Fundamental NewsMeta Platforms has faced some challenges in recent times, with a drop in share prices since its peak in 2021, and investors remaining cautious about its future prospects despite a recent recovery. Its advertising business has been struggling to maintain its former success, which has put significant pressure on the company's profitability. However, Meta's family of apps has experienced growth in engagement throughout 2022, which suggests that the company is still relevant. To improve efficiency and profitability, Meta is focusing on cost-cutting measures in 2023.
Nevertheless, there are concerns about Meta's recent investment in the metaverse industry, with the Reality Labs metaverse business showing a slight decline in revenues in 2022. While the potential for the metaverse to generate significant revenue is optimistic, the industry would have to reach mass distribution to achieve such numbers. Furthermore, it may take longer than expected for the metaverse to gain mainstream adoption, resulting in a lower return on investment for Meta.
Overall, there are too many uncertainties for most investors to feel comfortable with Meta's current situation, with the advertising business under pressure and the metaverse venture still burning through cash. However, for investors with a high tolerance for volatility, taking a small position in Meta stock could be an option if they believe in the long-term recovery and growth of the advertising business and the potential for the metaverse business to generate significant revenue in the future.
Bear Bounce in META May Push Further before Downtrend ContinuesPrimary Chart: Daily Time Frame, 8-D and 21-D EMAs, Long-Term Fibonacci Levels (Retracements of META's Entire Range), Uptrend from Nov. 4, 2022 Low
SUMMARY:
META remains in a severe downtrend since its all-time high in September 2021. The primary-degree trendline remains unbroken and in effect. A shorter down trendline for most of 2022 has been broken coinciding with its recent upside price action.
META is experiencing a corrective rally, also known as a bear bounce (until proven otherwise).
Bollinger Bands support the idea of further upside with the mouth of the bands expanding, and price walking the bands to the upside. The Donchian Channels also show that price is reaching multi-month highs, and its 21-period range is expanding as price pushes higher.
Target 1 lies at $142. Target 2 is $149. Target 3 is $157-$158. Each target requires that price reach and hold the prior target on a daily close. Each target is a condition precedent for the next target's viability.
Invalidation levels include the uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows as well as major support levels at $112 (key structural low), $115-$116 (volume profile).
META began its decline much earlier than the broader indices. It peaked at an ATH on September 1, 2021, while SPX peaked on January 4, 2022. It has appeared to lead indices by a few months in this bear market. The long-term uptrend line from 2012 more than a decade ago was decisively broken in early 2022. This suggests that it may take a while for META to begin carving out a new uptrend line at a less steep angle based on whatever bear-market lows are formed—whether that be the November 4, 2022 low or a (likely) new low in 2023.
Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of META with Decade-Long Upward Trendline
The bear-market downtrend lines are shown on Supplementary Chart B. The pink line on the Primary Chart reflects the primary-degree of trend since the all-time high in mid-2022. That line has not been broken, and price remains well below it. The dark-blue line is a shorter trendline that lasts for most of 2022. It was broken to the upside in early December 2022. This is no surprise. Steeper trendlines are less sustainable, and often end up being replaced by their less steep counterparts. The break of the dark-blue line is not an end to the bear market, but it does signal a short-term shift that coincides with the sideways to higher corrective rally taking place.
Supplementary Chart B: Trendlines within META's Current Bear Market
In this bear market, META made its most recent low on November 4, 2022. An uptrend drawn from that low is drawn (pink line on Primary Chart above). META's short-term EMAs show that it has been rallying in earnest since this November 4 low. Note the slope of the 8-D EMA and the 21-D EMA. While these are simple indicators, sometimes their simplicity can cause some to miss the power of their message—indicating the short-term trend. The short-term trend remains positive, with price finding support at these EMAs. When price falls below the 21-D EMA, it quickly rises to reclaim it. See Primary Chart.
The Bollinger Bands also reflect the upward rally, which should be deemed corrective until proven otherwise. The Bollinger Bands are widening at the mouth, and when price pushes through the bands to exhaustion levels (set at 2 standard deviations on this daily chart), it falls back but quickly pushes back into the bands. Yes, the CPI could end this prematurely, but technical analysis suggests this stock has further to run before it resumes its longer-term downtrend.
Supplementary Chart C: Bollinger Bands
Similar to the Bollinger Bands, the Donchian Channels also reflect an increase in volatility to the upside. Price is pushing new multi-month highs, which is easily seen using this indicator. As the upper band of the Donchian presses higher with price touching it, that reflects new 21-trading-day highs. But a quick glance at the chart below shows that the highs exceed all highs since late October lows. The October 2022 highs are the ones that will likely be taken out next if the rally continues.
Supplementary Chart D: Donchian Channels
Major support lies at $112, and $115-$116. In addition, the upward TL can easily be used as an invalidation level for any short-term bullish trades. It can also be used as confirmation for any shorts that wish to enter when the bounce exhausts.
Targets are based on the measured-move concept and Fibonacci proportions. Target 1 is $142. That is the 150-day SMA. Target 2 is $149. This level is the measured move area where wave A (or wave W) equals wave C (or wave Y) from the lows. Target 3 is $157-$158. Target 3 is a confluence of levels including (i) the 1.272 extension of first leg of this rally projected from the start of the second leg, (ii) the .618 retracement of META's entire price range going back to the start of data on the chart, and (iii) the 200-day SMA based on today's date, which lies at $158.
The bounce idea is invalidated if price falls below $112-$116. It may also be invalidated (depending on several factors) if price breaks below the pink uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows.
Lastly, to quickly and effortlessly see the major support (supply zone) for the current corrective rally, see the blue rectangle below. Breaking this level should signal the next leg lower is underway in the primary-degree downtrend.
Supplementary Chart E: Support / Supply Zone
Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year! May your trades and risk-management work out very well this year.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
🔻Vroom Market maker move prediction🔻Vroom market maker movement will be following either of this option
Option 2 is mostly going to happen according to Nasdaq. Long only from the floor. Wait for the Proxy statement if RS is going to happen.
Short this !!🔻🔻🔻
NFA
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for PermabearsNo matter how much you read in the establishment media or in the narrative-controlled and socially engineered Twitter and Discord and Reddit forums about "recession" this and "bear market" that, the reality is that while some individual stocks have certainly been a bear market for well over a year, the indexes are not a bear market.
I made the call back at the beginning of November that the Nasdaq would head towards 14,000. The results were that it went up to 12,000 and came back near the lows, and three months has passed.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
Price action is easy, timing is hard. That's the most significant thing I have enlightened to.
But here we are in February after a serious rally, and now that the post-FOMC pump has come and gone, the narrative has become "this is the top" and "the crash is coming."
However, just look at the weekly and monthly bars. This isn't bear market stuff.
Monthly
The literal last five months of Nasdaq futures has been a psychological operation against the COVID-June and COVID-October trendlines and the 2022 low of the year.
It's incredibly obvious on the weekly candles
Weekly
The most notable thing is that the end of the year did not breach the October low, and 2023 opened with a big bounce.
This tells us both that the low of the year isn't very likely to have transpired yet, and that we're still far away from a LOY unfolding.
Moreover, I've seen posts on Twitter that were tracking the SPX and the VIX against the 2008 GFC, 2002, and even the Dot Com bubble, and the January bullish divergence has thrown out all the prior price action to at least the 1970s crashes.
It's time for a revolution in our thinking.
What people don't understand or want to understand about the fundamentals is that when the fundamentals are bad, price is often bound to do what's contrary to expectations, and go up. So long as the market makers have time to work with, they will raise the prices and raise the prices for the purposes of selling YOU, retail dead money, the stocks they've held for a long time and bought more of at each successive low, at higher and higher prices in anticipation of the real crash.
The secondary effect this has is that while you're told by whoever it is that you're consciously or unconsciously taking orders from that the markets are about to crash BECAUSE RECESSION, FED FUNDS RATE, PROFIT/EARNINGS TOO HIGH, you're buying puts while it goes up. They expire worthless, you blow your account, and some Chad at JP Morgan goes for Happy Hour at 1:00 and wakes up under his car after a prostitute stole his Rolex.
Modern human life is total garbage. Return to tradition and find art and family again.
What's important about where we're at right now is that Nasdaq has finally retraced to its September CPI dump candle pivot, which it failed to breach, and looks to be setting up a double top after Friday's pullback.
In my opinion, we're about to get a very nice pullback that will serve as a simultaneous scare to shake out longs, and also a trap for permabears to leverage their entire accounts on puts and 1.5-3x short ETFs.
I'm specifically looking for a dump back under 12,000, which I believe is a long for price action that will take out the August highs by the end of March.
If you don't believe that Nasdaq can take out the August highs, then let me ask you a question: Why did the Dow, the most bearish of all indexes, take out the August highs in the middle of December?
In fact, the Dow as it stands is less than 10% away from setting a new all time high.
After what now amounts to 3 months of market action that isn't going lower combined with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hikes, ask yourself why you think stocks should go down?
The truth is that the markets are going to crash. A terrifying market crash unlike the others has been arranged. But why do you think that the indexes either setting new highs, or doing a 76% retracement to the old highs, or setting a double top at the old highs, is out of the question before it unfolds?
Nobody has an answer to that, besides that they think it's out of the realm of possibility, for really no reason at all.
What you think can happen has nothing to do with what is actually happening, and this is the fatal flaw of an ordinary person, who only believes in what they can see while refusing to believe in what they cannot see.
Once the truth stands before your eyes, it's too late to profit. All you can do is feel regret that you missed the opportunity. Not so bad with the stock market, but when it comes to major things in life, there are no mulligans in the Cosmos.
Nasdaq to 14,500 by the end of March is my call. Buy the February dip if we get one and take profit over the old highs.
Red Communist China is the Blackest Swan
As always, you need to be careful in bullish market conditions, because an enormous black swan exists lingering in wait. That black swan is the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in mainland China as Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are on the verge of collapse.
The CCP claims that 85,000 people (~54/1 million on a population-adjusted basis) have died from COVID since the pandemic began. This is despite the virus being engineered there, patient zero being in Wuhan, and the country being the most populous in the world. For comparison's sake, the US has a quarter the population, but has lost 1.1 million people (3,000~/1 million) to COVID.
Even nearby Japan is posting 600 deaths per million people.
Is it really realistic to believe the Party has suffered a factor of 60 fewer losses than a country across the ocean?
And this is the same CCP that is a lying, murderous regime who has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of organ harvesting during its persecution of Falun Gong.
The same CCP that covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic and made it seem to the outside world that barely anyone died.
The same CCP that every single human being who wants a future should be opposing with all of their might.
If you don't want a future, why are you trying to make money trading stocks? If you lose your future, can you spend your winnings and have a happy life?
It's up to you what you believe. An ordinary human has the flaw where they don't believe anything that isn't in front of their face, which is why they like to fall for the lies of establishment media and social media influencers.
The wise ones figure it out before the cards turn face up on the river and the dealer awards the pot, though. The fools get stacked and will lose more than just some casino chips.
NYSE FANG+ Index: wait is better⌛' The NYSE FANG+ Index is a rules-based, equal-weighted equity benchmark designed to track
the performance of 10 highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies in the
technology, media & communications and consumer discretionary sectors'.
Companies included in the index:
Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, NVIDIA, Snowflake and Advanced Micro Devices.
Graphically speaking, I would expect a better definition of which way the price is going.
Looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index, I would say that opening a long position would be too risky.
Below are some possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
Incompetent Management + Payed partnerships = MaticOpinion:
- Bad management bleeding money ->over 250mn in treasury in 2022 -> lay-offs in early 2023
- Treasury mostly held in Matic
- Social media storm brewing (#SANDEEP)
- End of $META partnership hype (Ca. Nov 2022) and begining of speculation over payed partnerships.
I will be writting a full thesis on this trade idea soon
Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
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META Potential for Bullish Continuation | 20th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for META is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 155.50, where the overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 124.63, where the overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Take profit will be at 224.28, where the intermediate high is.
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TOWN pumping. Metacoin related to GALA and co-founder of ZyngaTOWN is moving well even when the market had a pullback
Triangle breakouts are a standard chart pattern and can result in strong pushes up when they break out
TOWN Is related to GALA and the co-founder of Zynga is behind both
TOWN is only listed on a small number of exchanges with OkEx being the largest.
This is a chance to get in early on a Metacoin instead of coming in late after it has gone up 1000% and pumps like crazy as it moved on to more exchanges
This coin is so new that I had to zoom all the way in to 30 minute time unit to see some detail.
Get in now while its just a baby and hold on tight for mega growth
META: FUNDAMENTALS + NEXT TARGETUnlike most major technology companies, Meta Platforms' stock has risen in response to its recent earnings report.
Facebook's parent company did not report particularly impressive results. Revenue fell 4% to $32.2 billion for the quarter, and earnings per share fell 52% to $1.76, though when adjusted for restructuring costs, earnings per share fell 18% to $3, which was better than expected.
Looking ahead to the first quarter, the company anticipates another modest drop in revenue, owing to macroeconomic headwinds in the advertising market and its decision to ramp up its Reels short-form video product, which is monetized at a lower rate than other "surfaces" such as news feeds and stories.
But there was something else noteworthy in the report and earnings call.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook, has shifted his focus to the company's core business, a family of apps that includes Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.
Under Zuckerberg's leadership, the company changed its name from Facebook to Meta Platforms just over a year ago, signaling that the metaverse would become a core business.
Around the same time, the company restructured its financial reporting structure, separating Reality Labs, which manufactures Oculus VR headsets and deals with the metaverse, from the app family segment. Reality Labs was exposed as a smoldering money pit as a result of the move, and things have only gotten worse since then. Reality Labs lost $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter, capping off a year in which it lost $13.7 billion.
As a seasoned politician, Zuckerberg appears to have learned that the best way to deal with bad news is to change the subject. In this case, he appears to be doing exactly that.
During the earnings call, the company discussed its investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and cost-cutting and efficiency initiatives, such as a more cost-effective data center architecture. According to the report, almost all of the company's capital expenditures, which are mostly for data centers, are for the app family, not Reality Labs.
In the earnings release, Zuckerberg also made no mention of Reality Labs, saying: "We're making good progress on our AI discovery engine, and Reels is a big part of that. Aside from that, our management theme for 2023 is 'The Year of Efficiency,' and we are working hard to become a stronger and more agile organization."
During the earnings call, Meta's CEO discussed the company's recent work in the metaverse, but it seemed to take a back seat to Meta's other projects when he summarized the company's priorities, saying: "Okay, here are the areas we're focusing on: AI, including our discovery engine, advertising, business messaging, and increasingly generative AI, as well as future metaverse platforms."
Meta's metaverse plans are far from dead. Indeed, it released Quest Pro, its newest headset, late last year.
There are several reasons why Zuckerberg appears to have returned to his core business. So far, the metaverse project has failed, not only at Meta, but also elsewhere. The value of the associated market of NFTs has plummeted, and the idea that people want to spend time in virtual worlds has yet to gain traction, while public interest in the metaverse appears to have faded after Zuckerberg initially hyped it. The metaverse's struggles are also visible in the recent attention paid to ChatGPT and generative artificial intelligence, which appear to be transformative technologies with real-world applications.
Perhaps Meta's CEO is reacting to the stock's precipitous drop. The stock dropped roughly 75% in a year after the company changed its name to Meta, with investors concerned that Zuckerberg would risk the entire company for his metaverse experiment.
He appears to have persuaded investors that this is not the case, which is why the company's stock has risen. While investing in Reality Labs, the company intends to steadily increase overall profits. It's a reasonable strategy that doesn't overshadow Meta's lucrative digital advertising business.
Although Metaverse will continue to smear red ink on reports, investors are now viewing the company through rose-colored glasses following Zuckerberg's encouraging speech. If the advertising industry can return to growth, as appears to be the case with Reels, the company's stock should continue to rise.
Meta approaching resistance premium level!$META is one of the strong movers this week showing crazy gains in the past few days!
price currently on the premium level in confluence with the order block levels
I am expecting a small correction near the R1 and R2 level oscillator in the overbought area.
Meta to close it's gap?Meta - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 156.56 (stop at 144.94)
We have a Gap open at 02.02 from 153.12 to 183.38.
Bespoke support is located at 155.
A higher correction is expected.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Remains bullish while above last week's low.
Traded to the highest level in 34 weeks.
Our profit targets will be 184.88 and 189.88
Resistance: 197.16 / 200.00 / 205.50
Support: 180.16 / 170.00 / 155.00
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AMPG, fresh name in Quant/real 5g space. Watch moving averages$AMPG is a microcap ($24mil) company that reportedly designs, manufactures, and sells components important to the aerospace (sat com), telecom (real 5g), and quantum/AI space. This weekly chart demonstrates price bullishness (double bottom), but limited buy volume. The chart shows how weekly moving averages can suppress or support price action. Price recently has crossed a major resistance barrier by breaking through 50 week SMA, which is now support. However, 200SMA is proving exceptionally resistance, especially without buyers showing up in force.
Fundamentally, things look sound, IMO. Cash on hand, profits increasing. Low outstanding shares about 9mil
NASDAQ:AMPG
*Not financial advice