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Equities give back gains - ProfZero not falling for bull trap 🐻INVESTMENT CONTEXT Equity markets took a breather on May 23, as operators reacted positively to U.S. President Biden commitment to review Trump-era tariffs imposed on China Accumulated gains are now being quickly given back, as futures on May 24 point to red territory for both S&P 500 and Nasdaq (dropping 1.21% and 1.88%, respectively). Snapchat (SNAP) in particular cratered 30% in the after-market on anticipated top- and bottom-line miss, dragging Pinterest (PINS) and Meta Companies (FB) 12% and 7%, respectively. Zoom (ZM) instead popped 16% over-the-counter on sales forecast beat An initial remark by President Biden that that U.S. military will intervene to defend Taiwan should the island be attacked was later walked away by White House officials International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva hinted at further cuts for this year's global economic growth PROFZERO'S TAKE The ongoing market jitters must be nerve-wrecking for the cohort of retail traders that entered the market during pandemic times. A sustained period of tech-fueled growth has quickly reversed, with Nasdaq plunging into bear market (year-to-date performance down 27%) and S&P 500 teetering on the brink of one (negative 17% since the peak in November 2021). Pandemic-era dears Pinterest (PINS), Snapchat (SNAP), Twitter (TWTR) are now down at least 50% from their peaks; blockchain assets trade even deeper in the red. Is this the end of Growth? To ProfZero, that amounts to as much as asking - are we really building the next decade on coal, legacy banking and neo-protectionism? Clocks tick on, not back Speaking of innovation, Samsung (ticker: 005930) is investing USD 356bn over the next 5 years in semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals and next-generation technologies to drive "long-term growth". Curiously enough, neither coal nor plastics appear on the plan IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva's admission that a global recession is not in the cards, but shouldn't be ruled out altogether, resonates with JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon seeing "big storm clouds" on the horizon, just but darkening a currently strong economy. ProfZero already underscored the resilience of Main Street in Q1; however, trading is all about the future, and ProfZero still fails to see a sufficiently credible deterrent to avert a recession. A ceasefire in Ukraine, and normalization in energy markets would be a fair start "Frailty, thy name is... BTC". ProfZero keeps it cool on blockchain - not paying the bears' lunch
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
$RBLX earnings today 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Recap: My team purchased shares of online video game company Roblox Corp $RBLX at $30.72 on 5/5/22. Our first take profit was originally set at $43 per share. Today my team has averaged down on $RBLX at $22.25 per share. This brings our average down to $26.48. We do not think that $43 per share will be reached anytime soon, and so to be on the safe side we have established a new take profit at $32. This would be a 20.8% increase from our average. First entry: $30.72 2nd entry: $22.25 Take profit: $32 Earnings are to be reported today after hours. We aren't expecting much, but we are willing to hold this one out long-term until it reaches our take profit. Good luck to all today! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:RBLXLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
8
Facebook earnings potential - small business boom and bustI'm in the marketing industry, so this post is coming directly from experience. Facebook/Instagram marketing is severely underusesd in the sectors that would most benefit from it. Even if we account for recent problems in the market and the purchasing power of people, I see the demand at least doubling in the next 2 years. In fact, from my accumulated basket of about 300 clients (we produce web shops and business web pages for them), about 120 have businesses that would, in my opinion, greatly benefit from Meta advertising. Out of those 120 businesses, only 10 are using our services in the Meta department. About 20 more are using Google Ads services. My opinion is that for many of these businesses, Meta advertising is becoming a better opportunity than Google Ads. When used correctly, Meta is significantly more successful in finding customers per $ invested. (About 2:1 compared to Google). This doesn't mean that Meta will win over Google, because this only accounts for businesses I would call "eligible for Meta advertising". But, what it does show is that less than 10% of businesses that could benefit from Meta, are using that opportunity. So why not 10x increase then? At the moment, I'm taking into account the fact that this can't grow into infinity and that Meta platforms could get crowded with ads. But, another factor that could (and probably will) fix this is competition among advertisers. From my experience, about 80% of my competition will be wiped out in the next 5 years. They are severely underusing Facebook potential, and the only reason it still works for them is that there isn't much competition like my company. I am deriving this conclusion from a combination of the insight into our old clients who went to someone else for stupid reasons, and my estimate on the quality of Pixel tracking from websites that are using Meta ads. This conclusion could easily lead to more than 2x increase, by the following mechanism. First, we will see a large inflow of small businesses into a low competitive market. This will already cause a massive infow of money, but will also make Meta more crowded. This will increase the price of ads and small businesses with bad marketing companies will slowly start to die off as advertising prices drive them out of the profitable zone. Meanwhile, better advertisers will be increasing their ad spending by advertising fewer companies that are slowly growing larger over time. This will greatly compensate for the loss of retail customers. So, after this, we will see another boom and bust in small retail sector, followed by the boom in emerging companies that grew larger and larger through the guidance of a few competent marketing companies. Time periods for all of these events are unclear, the only time period that I'm 90% sure about is the retail boom during the next 2 years, driven by inflation, useless jobs, increase in small businesses, high real estate prices, and lower costs of running online businesses. 80% of those small businesses will slowly start dying after this 2-year boom is over.
NASDAQ:METALong
by josip
PREPARING FOR A MANA LONG Looking at the MANA/USDT pair today, Lets get it! Chart above us shows that we have a first wave extension impulse in play. As shown by the first fibonacci tool, we found support at the .382 region marking the end of wave 2 and made new ath's at the 1.5 fib region(just under the 1.618) for a wave 3 top before clearly getting rejected as shown by the 2nd fibonacci retracement tool. Currently still in the correction phase of wave 4, MANA seems to be baiting everyone into buying and longing here, however the chart below shows us with the angles presented that this isnt the bottom and that we will most likely still go to the bottom of the ascending channel before getting a reversal for our wave 5 impulse Once we confirm our Wave 4 bottom, target for our wave 5 will be the touch of the channel resistance once more and should be inline with either the 1.9 or 2.0 fib resistance, leaving us with a price target in the range of $15-20 depending on how early we can achieve that. If you agree with this idea, leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments Feedback is always appreciated.
Long
by RektMyMom
2
WHERE IS THE BOTTOM FOR ENJ? - ENJIN COIN ANALYSISIn our last enj analysis we talked about how price needed to reach at least the 61.8 retracement level of correction wave B as shown below Now that we have reached and bounced from the 61.8 level, what comes next? It appears our currect wave C has created a falling wedge pattern, which could soon be confirmed as a Running flat pattern 3-3-5 correction if we get another leg down. Levels to watch out for buying are the 76.4, 85.4 & 90.0 fib regions. Have some orders at the 100% retracement level too(0.735) but i'm doubtfull of it. Global View: Should the above scenario play out, We will have ourselves targets ranging from $10-25 1st Target- Previous ATH 2nd Target- $10-13(1.382) 3rd Target- $17-25 (1.5-1.618) If you agree, pls like and share your thoughts in the comments. Always manage your risks.
Long
by RektMyMom
4
M2 Adjusted FAAMNG Tutorial/AnalysisThe current FAANG symbol does not have a very long history. Depending on the symbol, you get a chart that either starts from mid-2019 or 2016. We get couple more years of data in this chart, back to early 2014. I weighted each stock equally according to its 60 month average, and adjusted for M2 expansion, which gives us a very consistent support line. There's also a horizontal resistance line that extends from 2018 onward that is currently being tested as support, which raises the questions: Is historical support now resistance? Is the resistance line now support? Or will we drop below the resistance line once again? It wouldn't surprise me if we got a bounce here to once again test that the Support line is *actually* now resistance and the drop in price wasn't a fluke. Which, maybe it was. But on the other hand, smaller caps have gotten completely crushed, look at the M2 Adjusted Russell 2000 for example: We're getting close to the "value" zone, but we're still at the bottom range of wholesale prices. I wouldn't be surprised if there's even more stop-loss style liquidations at these prices. There are many many unprofitable companies, roughly 50%?!, that are feeling the pain in the Russell. It's not crazy to think that once the smaller caps fall, the rest of the larger dominoes fall. First, there were drops in sort of intangibly valued companies like Netflix/Peloton. Market shrugged it off. Then we saw a single day -0.25 trillion$ valuation drop in Facebook. Market shrugged it off. Now in the past few weeks, Amazon is finally looking terrible, and this is the first time in YEARS that the market seems to be taking it seriously. How long until Apple/Tesla bite the bullet? The market can only shrug off so much localized losses before it becomes systemic. It's only a matter of weeks or months, in my opinion, until we see the remaining FAANMG and others reflect the state of rest of the market. So how did i manage to get the symbol on the chart? This method is not perfect. There's lots of ways to do this. I decided to equally weight each stock by their 60 month SMA, given that mean reversion is a well known phenomenon. But you can use any anything you wish, as long as it normalizes the price in a way that you like. Literally anything. First, I wrote down the SMAs like this: 60 month SMA: FB = 221.34 AMZN = 2250.99 AAPL = 85.60 MSFT = 173.64 NFLX = 380.58 GOOG = 1585.70 Notice that AAPL has the lowest average, 85.6. We can use AAPL as our "benchmark". Divide every SMA by 85.6: FB = 2.5857 AMZN = 26.296 AAPL = 1 MSFT = 2.0285 NFLX = 4.4460 GOOG = 18.524 Now we can add each price together, and divide by our adjuster that we just calculated, to get a fairly crude, but accurate enough, equally average-weighted basket: AAPL+ FB/2.5857+ AMZN/26.296+ MSFT/2.0285+ NFLX/4.4460+ GOOG/18.524 Mash it all together, you get: NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524 And adjust for M2 if you want: (NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS This looks ugly though. The value is so small, there's no horizontal bars on the chart because of a display bug in TV or some other problem. So we can simply multiply the entire series by a value. in this case 15, until we get something that looks good. (NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS*15 There's a lot of ideas fairly similar to this out there, but I hope this helps someone who might be curious how people came up with these crazy long symbols. Try it with your favorite sectors! Make your own sector benchmarks. You can combine up to 10 symbols at once! Here we only used 6 symbols (7 if you include WM2NS). Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by fringe_chartist
5
$RBLX buying the dip 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* My team purchased shares of online video game company Roblox Corp $RBLX at $30.72 today. Our first take profit is set at $43. OUR ENTRY: $30.72 TAKE PROFIT 1: $43 TAKE PROFIT 2: $50 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:RBLXLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
FB - Even Deeper Correction, Another 60% Drop?With poor earnings report in the first quarter of 2022 and downbeat forecast for the second quarter, rising competition from TikTok - can we expect even further fall for Meta Platforms ? Fundamental indicators: Revenue and Profits - consistently strong growth up until now but 2022 may be the first year when the rate slows down which is putting investors off at the moment Profit margin - impressive 31% last year but will be reducing with growing CAPEX for Metaverse P/E - already reasonable ration at 16x Liabilities - no problems with debt Technically: Following IPO back in 2012 Meta has enjoyed explosive growth cycle which has culminated in September 2021 All of this movement can be marked as an initial 5 wave impulse and now we are observing the development of the global second wave which is normally very deep and rapid The structure of the second wave is very likely to be an ABC zigzag where waves A and B have already completed Waves 1 to 3 of C have already formed and fourth is taking shape as a Running Flat The fact that this correction is tilted in the direction of trend, i.e. Running, the fifth wave can be quite aggressive and reach circa $96 which represents 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the global wave 1, or possibly even deeper What do you think about Meta Platforms and its future? Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks
NASDAQ:METAShort
by vitalalyt
2